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5:30 PM ET, Wednesday, October 4, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

THE TOP STORIES:

U.S. Sending Seized Iranian Ammunition to Ukraine.  U.S. Central Command announced on Wednesday that it sent 1.1 million 7.62 mm rounds seized from Iran to Ukraine on Monday.  The transfer was aimed at helping alleviate shortages the Ukrainian military is facing as it waits for more aid from its Western allies.  U.S. Central Command said the transfer was being planned for months and that the U.S. originally seized the munitions in December 2022 and were being sent from Iran to Houthi forces in Yemen.  U.S. naval forces have long seized weapons in the Gulf believed to be sent from Iran for Iran-backed fighters in Yemen.  The small arms ammunition is not likely to make a major difference on the battlefield as Kyiv is seeking long-range weapons and air defense systems.  It is also unclear what legal authorities the U.S. is using to facilitate the transfer, since the U.N. requires all seized weapons to be destroyed or stored.  CNN Politico Reuters 

Biden Expresses Concern About Ukraine Aid, Zelensky Urges Continued Support.  President Joe Biden expressed concern about the future of aid to Ukraine amid congressional infighting that has complicated budget negotiations.  Biden said that while a bipartisan “majority” in both the House and Senate support new funding, it “does worry” him that the disarray in Congress will prevent Washington from delivering new aid.  Biden, who called U.S. allies on Tuesday to reassure them that Washington will maintain Ukraine aid, added that he will soon deliver a speech on the importance of helping Kyiv, but did not indicate a specific time.  Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv “will do everything” to maintain support from its Western allies.  He expressed confidence about U.S. support, saying there is “100% support from the White House” and “great support in the Congress” and emphasizing that while there were “different voices” amongst U.S. lawmakers about aiding Ukraine, there has mostly been bipartisan support for helping Kyiv.  He also said that he believes Russia is weaker now than it was at the start of its invasion and that any pause in aid or move to freeze the conflict will “exclusively” help Moscow.  He also emphasized that while Ukraine is “slowly but surely” pushing Russian troops out, the shortage of weapons and ammunition, especially the “deficit in air defense,” will make Ukraine’s counteroffensive harder.  CNN Reuters

Top U.S. Officials to Visit Mexico to Discuss Drug Trafficking, Migration.  Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Attorney General Merrick Garland, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and other top U.S. officials are visiting Mexico City on Wednesday to discuss trafficking of fentanyl and other drugs, arms trafficking and migration.  The U.S. delegation will meet with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his security secretary Rosa Icela Rodríguez.  The meeting is not expected to yield major policy announcements but will offer an opportunity to discuss strategies to curb drug trafficking and illegal immigration.  Associated Press New York Times

THE UKRAINE UPDATE:

Heavy Fighting in Southern Ukraine.  There are reports of heavy fighting in southern Ukraine, with both Russian and Ukrainian forces trying to advance.  Oleksandr Shutpun, spokesperson for Ukraine’s forces in the south, said Ukrainian troops had “partial success” west of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region and had advanced “100 to 600 meters in certain areas.”  He added that Ukrainian forces continue to put pressure in the Melitopol direction and that 25 Russian soldiers surrendered in the area in recent days.  However, Shutpun noted that Russian forces are “not giving up” and continue assaults west of Verbove and southeast of Mala Tokmachka.  He added that some Russian elite airborne troops have been deployed in the region, noting that they are taking losses.  A prominent Russian military blogger named WarGonzo said Ukrainian forces are attacking the village of Novoprokopivka with artillery support and that Russian troops counterattacked around Verbove and Novofedorivka.  CNN

Ukraine Claims To Have Destroyed Russian Air Defense Complex in Belgorod.  Sources say Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) successfully destroyed an important Russian air defense complex in the Belgorod region early on Wednesday.  Sources say the SBU operated drones to take out a S-400 Triumph air defense system, one of Russia’s most sophisticated air defense systems.  Videos posted by Russians showed around 20 explosions at the location of the Triumph system and its radar.  Ukraine previously successfully targeted an S-400 complex in Crimea last month.  CNN 

NATO Reaffirms Long-Term Ukraine Support.  NATO reaffirmed its long-term support for Ukraine at a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council (NUC) in Brussels on Wednesday.  NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana chaired the meeting, during which she commended support for Kyiv so far and Ukraine’s efforts to implement decisions from the NATO summit in Vilnius.  A NATO statement added that allies will continue support for Ukraine and work to ensure the Ukrainian military is “fully interoperable with NATO.”  The NUC is a joint body including Ukraine and its allies that meets for crisis consultations.  It replaced the NATO-Ukraine Commission and first met at the Vilnius summit.  CNN 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:

NATO Investigating Claimed Data Theft by SiegedSec Hacktivist Group.  NATO authorities are investigating a claimed data theft from alliance websites, including strategic planning and research documents.  A NATO spokesperson said “additional cyber security measures have been put in place.  There has been no impact on NATO missions, operations and military deployments.”  The DailyDot on Tuesday reported that the SiegedSec hacktivist group posted on its Telegram channel what it described as information extracted from the Joint Advanced Distributed Learning platform, the NATO Lessons Learned Portal, the Logistics Network Portal, the Communities of Interest Cooperation Portal and the NATO Standardization Office.  The SiegedSec group said the stolen files included about 3,000 NATO documents totaling more than nine gigabytes of data.  The extracted documents are described as unclassified but “for official use only” assessments of emerging technologies and security threats. Topics covered by the data include hypersonic weapons, drone threats, and radioactive waste testing.  CNN CyberScoop The Record

Freedom House Annual Internet Report Tracks Negative Trends, Propelled by AI.  Internet freedoms and access were further constrained around the world from 2022 into 2023, according to the Freedom House human rights organization.  The advocacy group’s 13^th annual “Freedom on the Net” report noted that the trend toward online restrictions could worsen if AI is used to censor, harass, monitor, and punish open expression on the Internet.  The analysis covered from June 2022 through this past May, emphasizing that many negative records were set during this period.  These included the 55 countries where people have been placed in legal peril because of their online speech, and 41 countries where governments have restricted access to websites with content related to political, social, and religious expression.  For nine consecutive years, China is considered the most repressive in terms of Internet restrictions.  Myanmar takes second place in the Freedom House report for its aggressive campaign against online critics of the 2021 military coup and its actions to force the sale of the country’s last independent Internet provider to a state entity.  Iran’s clampdown on dissent during protests registered as the world’s biggest decline in net freedoms.  Freedom House assessed the Iranian regime’s repressions were not limited to blocking Internet access but resulted in “the executions of two people for alleged blasphemy after they shared their religious views on Telegram.”  The report also highlighted the potential abuse of AI in limiting or undermining freedom of speech. Michael Abramowitz, the president of Freedom House, said “AI can be used to supercharge censorship, surveillance, and the creation and spread of disinformation,” adding “this is a critical issue for our time, as human rights online are a key target of today’s autocrats.”  Allie Funk, one of the report’s researchers, said “advances in AI are actually making this crisis even worse,” citing the twin factors of the affordability and accessibility of generative AI lowering entry costs for disinformation campaigns, and automated systems enabling more precise and subtle forms of online government censorship.  The Record MIT Technology Review

Commission Member Warns of Global Tech Disruptions from U.S.-China Frictions.  A member of a U.S.-China commission created by Congress warned about threats to global technology supply chains in connection with a possible “hot conflict” breaking out between Washington and Beijing in the next five years.  Jacob Helberg, a member of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, told a Wall Street Journal event on Monday that national security observers see a “more than 50 percent chance” of a military confrontation between the U.S. and China.  Consequently, business technology leaders must prepare and strengthen technology supply chains and cybersecurity defenses.  Helberg told corporate chief information officers, “your organizations are going to feel it.  If it’s not in the economic numbers, you’re going to feel it because of increased attempts of hacking and increased types of disturbances and so preparing is absolutely worthwhile.”  Helberg, who also is a senior policy adviser to Palantir, noted that risks are especially high for hardware companies dependent on Chinese supply chains, or investment firms with billions of dollars committed in China.  Preparations that could be taken now to build resilience and mitigate risks, Helberg said, include assessing the vulnerability of vendors to Chinese influence over workforces or overreliance on China-sourced electronic devices.  Wall Street Journal

Chinese Drone Exhibition Features Multiple Size Models for Military Missions.  A UAV conference in China’s Sichuan Province last week featured an exhibition of over 300 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV’s), including a range of drones with military applications.  A broadcast report by the CCTV state network described a so-called suicide drone capable of carrying a 500-gram explosive payload that could destroy an average passenger vehicle.  The UAV is equipped with tracking and location technologies, travels at 108 mph, and can fly for up to 30 minutes.  Weighing in at 4 pounds, the quadcopter can be transported in a specially designed backpack accommodating four drones.  The CCTV report observed that “as soon as one of these drones takes to the air and takes out its target, a second one can follow in almost seamless operation.”  The report went on to say that many of the drones displayed at the exhibition are made of carbon fiber and other lightweight materials.  Large drones were also on display including a new model of the 65-ft wide TB series.  It is one of the largest UAV’s operated by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and has been used for patrols around Taiwan.  The particular TB model at the exhibition is equipped with two airborne telecommunication modules and boasts a 35-hour flight time, which it was noted would enable it to serve as a data transmission station for emergencies.  A flapping-wing “ornithopter” developed by the China South Industries Group was also on display, and was described as “highly mobile and camouflaged, capable of a wide range of military applications.”  South China Morning Post

Taiwan Invests in Government-Commercial Partnerships for Drone Development.  Fueled by a 5-year Taiwan defense ministry investment of $1.5 billion, the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology, a ministry-affiliated defense technology facility, is collaborating with commercial firms to mass-produce five drone prototypes it has developed.  The drone program focuses on self-defense capabilities with primary military missions of long-range reconnaissance and intelligence gathering.  In addition to defense ministry support, the Ministry of Economic Affairs is offering private companies an R&D subsidy program that covers up to 50 percent of research costs.  Last year Taiwan established a drone development center in Chiayi that houses 20 businesses, including major manufacturers and academic institutions.  Also, Taiwan’s GEOSAT Aerospace & Technology company GEOSAT has partnered with development and production counterparts in Turkey and elsewhere in Europe this year.  Lee Chung-chi, GEOSAT’s cybersecurity executive, said there is "a strong need to replace drones made in China with Taiwanese-made or other products."  Nikkei Asia

Space Force Awards Integration Contract to Booz Allen Hamilton.  Booz Allen Hamilton announced on Wednesday that Space Force awarded the company a $630 million contract for engineering and integration services for the service’s missile tracking and surveillance, reconnaissance and tracking capabilities.  The contract is a seven-year agreement which will have Booz Allen provide engineering, software development, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence support to Space Force’s space sensing programs.  The contract was initially awarded back in 2022, but the deal was delayed due to protests from two other companies that also competed for the contract.  Officials said such portfolio-wide integration contracts aim to ensure collaboration across space-based systems to provide a more complete understanding of threats in orbit.  Defense News

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Iranian Girl in Critical Condition After Alleged Encounter With Morality Police.  An Iranian girl is reportedly in critical condition after an alleged confrontation on Sunday with morality police officers in Tehran’s metro.  Activists say the girl, 16-year-old Armita Geravand, was subjected to a “severe physical assault” by the officers for not wearing a hijab and is now in a coma.  Human rights group Hengaw said Geravand is now in Tehran’s Fajr hospital under tight security and claimed that the phones of her family members have been confiscated.  Iranian authorities denied that Geravand is in a coma.  Iranian state news agency IRNA released footage of her boarding the metro and then being carried out unconscious onto the platform.

IRNA also reported that her parents believed the incident was an “accident” and that she suffered a drop in blood pressure, fell, and hit her head while in the metro train.  The footage has not been independently verified, but social media users noted that IRNA did not release video showing inside the metro train.  Hengaw also cast doubt on this report, claiming that Geravand’s parents were interviewed by IRNA in the presence of security officers.  Separately, an Iranian journalist was briefly arrested Geravand’s case mirrors a similar incident last year when 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died while in the custody of morality police, sparking nationwide protests.  BBC Reuters

Iraqi Defense Minister to Visit Turkey.  Iraq’s Defense Minister Thabet al-Abbasi will visit Turkey to meet with his Turkish counterpart Yasar Guler on Monday, according to Turkish media.  Turkey has carried out airstrikes in northern Iraq against Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) targets after the group claimed responsibility for a bombing at government buildings near Ankara.  Iraq denounced the Turkish air strikes, though Iraqi President Abdul-Latif Rashid said that he hopes the two countries can come to an agreement to resolve the problem.  Turkey regularly conducts airstrikes in northern Iraq against the PKK.  Ankara also deploys commandos and has set up military bases in Iraq to support these operations.  Reuters

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