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5:30 PM ET, Wednesday, October 25, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

THE TOP STORIES

Mike Johnson Elected House Speaker.  The U.S. House of Representatives voted 220-209 to elect Representative Mike Johnson (R-LA) as speaker, ending three weeks of Republican infighting over who to appoint as leader of the chamber.  Johnson was the fourth Republican speaker nominee since the ouster of Representative Kevin McCarthy (R-CA).  Johnson is a socially conservative lawyer who played a role in congressional efforts to overturn the 2020 election.  Johnson pledged to “restore the people’s faith in his House” and said sending aid to Israel, fixing the “broken” southern border and reigning in federal spending are his top priorities.  Johnson has also opposed continued aid for Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion.  New York Times Wall Street Journal Washington Post

Biden Meets Australian PM Albanese in Washington.  President Joe Biden welcomed Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese at the White House on Wednesday.  At a joint press conference, Biden described Australia as “an anchor to peace and prosperity,” underscoring U.S. ties with a partner seen as playing a key role in countering China.  Albanese echoed his remarks, saying the “soul of our partnership” is “not a pact against a common enemy,” but “a pledge to a common cause.”  The two leaders noted plans to expand cooperation on economic development among Pacific Island nations, including with new undersea infrastructure projects, as well as collaboration on space missions and cybersecurity.  Biden also acknowledged rising tensions in the South China Sea, reiterating the U.S. defense commitment to the Philippines as “iron clad.”  Albanese’s visit also comes amid discussions on the AUKUS submarine partnership, which also involves the U.K.  Albanese arrived as the subcommittee of the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee held a hearing on U.S. submarine policy, including AUKUS commitments.  U.S. Navy representatives at the hearing urged Congress to approve Biden’s supplemental budget request last Friday that called for $3.4 billion in additional investments in the U.S. submarine industrial base.  Mara Karlin, acting deputy under secretary of defense for policy, asserted at the hearing that the U.S. submarine industrial base can and will support AUKUS needs and will itself be strengthened by the project.  Associated Press Reuters Reuters Wall Street Journal

California Governor Newsom Meets China’s Xi.  California Governor Gavin Newsom had a surprise meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Wednesday.  Newsom is on a tour of China focused on climate cooperation.  Newsom also met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice President Han Zheng.  Newsom, who is the first U.S. governor to meet with Xi since 2017, was warmly welcomed, juxtaposing the tense dialogue between the U.S. and China in recent years.  Ahead of his meeting with Wang, Newsom said he was in China to help in “renewing our friendship and reengaging (on) foundational and fundamental issues that will determine our collective faith in the future.”  Newsom added that in addition to climate issues, he and Xi discussed China’s role in countering the transnational shipping of fentanyl precursor chemicals.  Chinese state media reported that Xi told Newsom that he expects his visit to “enhance mutual understanding” and support positive development of relations.  Newsom’s visit comes ahead of a possible meeting between Xi and President Joe Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco in November.  Associated Press New York Times South China Morning Post Wall Street Journal 

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel Agrees to Delay Ground Invasion of Gaza.  Israel has reportedly agreed to a U.S. request to delay a planned ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.  Officials and sources say Israel agreed to the delay to give the U.S. time to place more air defense systems in the region to protect U.S. forces, which have come under increased missile and drone attacks in recent days.  Israeli officials say they are also factoring in the humanitarian aid needs in Gaza, intelligence collection, hostages held by Hamas, and ongoing air strikes aimed at Hamas targets in planning for the ground operation.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that the ground invasion will still occur, saying that Israeli forces are “preparing for ground entry.”  However, he did not provide further details, saying that he is not releasing more information to “protect the lives of our soldiers.”  French President Emmanuel Macron was the latest to urge caution about a ground operation in Gaza, saying a “massive” Israeli ground invasion of the territory would be a mistake.  Bloomberg Wall Street Journal Washington Post 

Al Jazeera Reporter’s Family Reportedly Killed in Israeli Air Strike.  Al Jazeera reports that the wife, son and daughter of one of its correspondents, Wael Al-Dahdouh, were killed on Wednesday night in an Israeli air strike on Gaza.  Al Jazeera said the strike hit the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, where Daudouh moved his family from northern Gaza ahead of an expected Israeli ground invasion.  Al Jazeera added that other members of Dahdouh’s family were reportedly killed in the attack.  The network did not accuse Israel of targeting Dahdouh’s family.  The Gaza health ministry added that at least 25 people were killed in the strike.  Al Jazeera Reuters 

Hamas Fighters Trained in Iran Ahead of Israel Attacks.  Hundreds of Palestinian Islamist militant group fighters reportedly received specialized combat training in Iran before the Israel attacks.  Sources familiar with intelligence about the attacks said around 500 Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad militants participated in training drills in September, which were led by officers of the Quds Forces of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.  Sources added that senior Palestinian officials and the head of Quds Force, Iranian Brigadier General Esmail Qaani, attended the exercises.  U.S. officials say Iran regularly trains militants in the region, but had no indications of mass training immediately before the Hamas attacks or evidence that Iran directed specific training for the assault.  The Israeli military’s chief spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said on Wednesday that Iran supporting Hamas with funds, training, weapons, intelligence and technological training.  The U.S. has said that while it not seen evidence that Tehran gave a direct order for Hamas to attack Israel, Iran is ultimately responsible due to its support for the group.  Wall Street Journal 

U.N. Chief Counters Israeli Anger at Remarks on Israel-Hamas Conflict.  U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres rejected accusations by Israel that he had justified the Hamas attacks against Israel, asserting that he condemned the militant group for its assault.  Speaking at the U.N. Security Council, Guterres on Tuesday denounced both Hamas and Israel for acts endangering civilians.  He referred to Hamas using civilians as “human shields,” and called out Israeli forces for ordering the evacuation of over 1 million people from northern Gaza, continuing air strikes in southern Gaza, and blocking food, water, medicine and fuel from the territory.  Guterres also called for a ceasefire to address humanitarian needs of Palestinians.  Israel’s Ambassador to the U.N. Gilad Erdan said Gutteres’s comments show “understanding for [Hamas’s] campaign of mass murder,” adding that he is “disconnected from reality” and calling for his immediate resignation.  Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen canceled upcoming meetings with Guterres in response to his remarks.  BBC Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russian Drone Attacks Target Area Near Ukraine Nuclear Plant.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that a Russian drone attack on Wednesday in the western Khmelnitskyi region likely targeted the nuclear power plant in the area.  The attack reportedly shattered windows at the plant and injured 20 people.  The International Atomic Energy Agency said the attack did not impact the plant’s operations or its connection to the grid, though power was temporarily cut from some off-site radiation monitoring stations.  Zelensky said the attack underscored the need for more sanctions against Russia.  He also vowed that Ukraine will strike back against Russia if it continues attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the winter.  Kyiv Independent Associated Press Reuters Reuters

Ukraine Ramping Up Drone Production. Ukraine is aiming to produce tens of thousands of drones every month until the end of the year.  Ukraine has been ramping up their defense industry output despite challenges posed by Russian attacks.  Drones have played a critical role in the Ukraine war.  Both sides use drones in large numbers for both surveillance and attacks. Kyiv has been focused on increasing output, yet has relied heavily on foreign-made drone parts. With Western warehouses being depleted as the war goes on, Ukraine is aiming to boost local production of different military equipment and munitions as well.  Ukrainian officials are hoping that cooperation with Western arms producers will help revive the domestic arms industry in Ukraine and boost their economy.  Reuters Kyiv Independent

Putin Reportedly Oversaw Russian Nuclear Drills.  Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly oversaw military drills that simulated a nuclear strike on Wednesday.  The Kremlin said the drills involved a test launch of the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile from Russia’s Plesetsk cosmodrome in the western Arkhangelsk region to the far eastern Kamchatka region, a test launch of the Sineva ballistic missile from a nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea, and cruise missile launches from Tu-95MS long-range bombers.   Russian state TV showed Putin directing the exercise via video call and being briefed on the drills by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who said they simulated a “massive nuclear strike by strategic forces in response to enemy’s nuclear attack.”  The drills came hours after Russia’s parliament approved a bill to revoke ratification of a nuclear test ban treaty.  Bloomberg Associated Press

Germany Pledges $200 Million in Support for Ukraine’s Energy Industry. Germany’s Development Ministry announced on Wednesday that Berlin has pledged 195 million euros ($206 million) to bolster Ukraine’s energy industry.  The aid package was agreed to during a meeting in Berlin today between Germany’s Development Minister Svenja Schulze and Ukraine’s Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov.  Half of the funds given are to be used to support Ukraine’s current energy infrastructure, which has suffered significant damage during Russian strikes.  The other half of the aid package will support Ukrainian energy firms by giving them better access to financial markets.  With winter approaching, Ukraine is concerned that Russia will repeat its strategy of targeting Ukraine’s power grid and critical infrastructure.  Last week, Germany’s Development Ministry pledged another aid package worth $200 million to support Ukraine’s healthcare, education, and drinking water supply as well as reconstruction.  Germany has said that they have allocated roughly $1 billion in civil support to Ukraine since the start of the war.  Kyiv Independent

Europe Reportedly Continuing Import of Russian Raw Materials. The European Union has continued to import billions of euros worth of “critical” raw materials from Russia since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to a report from media outlet Investigate Europe.  The report said that between March 2022 and July 2023, European countries imported 13.7 billion euros worth of critical raw materials from Russia.  Certain raw materials like oil, coal, and steel fall under sanctions linked to the Ukraine war, but there are 34 minerals — including copper, nickel and titanium — that the EU considers “critical to Europe’s economy” and has therefore decided not to include in sanctions.  The report warned that these imports "not only fund Russia's war economy, but also benefit Kremlin-backed oligarchs and state companies."  Europe remains reliant on Russian sources of these materials.  For example, the world’s largest titanium producer is part-owned by Russia’s state owned defense conglomerate, Rostec.  Research also indicates that "imposing tariffs or severing ties too quickly could lead to a global price surge which would harm European buyers while benefiting Moscow."  A complete ban on Russian critical raw materials in the short-term is therefore very unlikely due to these reasons.  Kyiv Independent

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Threat Experts Note Iranian Role in Upward Trend of Hamas-Israel Cyberwarfare.  Experts monitoring cyber activity in the Hamas-Israel conflict expect the information war to intensify in coming days as hactivist groups on both sides step up their operations.  Tom Hegel, SentinelLabs’ principal threat researcher, told CyberScoop that efforts to shape global perceptions of the conflict will increase through cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns, among other tactics.  He said the cyberwarfare environment includes “manipulation of social media platforms, the creation of fictitious hacktivist groups, and the implementation of strategic campaigns designed to influence global media outlets.”  A recent example is a posting on a newly created Telegram channel by an apparent pro-Palestinian group that claimed to have breached systems at Israel’s Nevatim air base.  The message included screenshots and videos purportedly taken from security cameras near the base, with a caption on one image reading, “You will NOT be safe.” The Telegram message concerning Nevatim was one claim about system breaches among many made by hacktivist groups since the Hamas attack on October 7.  In the future, experts warn that state-backed hacking groups may use hacktivist groups to obscure the origin of their attacks, with Iranian hacking groups pose a particular threat.  SentinelLabs researchers underscore the importance of focusing in the coming days “on Iran as a potential origin of both direct cyber offensive actions and proxy operations supported by Iran-linked groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.”  CyberScoop

Ransomware Attacks Reach Record Levels in September, Fueled by New Actors.  Ransomware attacks reached unprecedented levels in September as 514 victims were exposed in leak sites, according to the NCC Group “Threat Pulse” report.  September attacks increased 153 percent year-on-year in the number of ransomware targets.  NCC attributed part of the increase to the appearance of new threat actors, with recently formed LostTrust ransomware group ranking as the second-most active threat actor. Another new group, RansomedVC, was assessed as the fourth-most active actor.  Leading ransomware activity in September was the Lockbit gang.  Industrial and technology sectors were among the most targeted by ransomware gangs.  Healthcare also was a favored target, with an 86 percent increase from August.  Matt Hull, NCC Group’s global head of threat intelligence, noted that following a lull in August a September surge was expected. However, Hull pointed out, “what stands out is the volume of these attacks and the emergence of new threat actors who have been major drivers of this activity.”  Cybernews

Russian Hacking Attacks Grow in Number, Sophistication; Financial Sector Targeted.  Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister, Anton Demokhin, has said Russian cyberattacks are growing in number and sophistication, with critical infrastructure as a key target.  Demokhin told Bloomberg that Ukraine has been successful in fending off most cyberattacks, but noted that the Russian efforts are “effective in the sense that we do put in a lot of effort” to stop them.  He noted that coordination of the cyber incidents has increased as multiple hackers in various locations have simultaneously probed different parts of the same infrastructure.  Meanwhile, the Ukrainian National Cyber Security Coordination Center (NCSСС) reports that suspected Russian threat actors have deployed Smokeloader malware in a series of attacks on Ukrainian financial and government organizations.  Smokeloader is described as a highly capable malware that downloads stealthy malicious software into a system.  Since May, hackers have used Smokeloader against state, private sector, and financial institutions, especially accounting departments.  Bloomberg The Record

Cyberespionage Group Targets European Governments Through Webmail Vulnerability.  A cyberespionage group friendly to Russia and Belarus has been detected exploiting a webmail service zero-day vulnerability in systems used by governments across Europe.  ESET researchers have been tracking a new campaign by Winter Vivern, which previously was involved in attacks on government systems in Poland, Ukraine and India, to exploit a bug in Roundcube Webmail software.  The vulnerability has been targeted in attacks against European government entities and think tanks since at least October 11.  ESET researcher Matthieu Faou described Winter Vivern as a persistent threat actor that is accomplished in conducting phishing campaigns.  He noted that the threat is exacerbated because “a significant number of internet-facing applications are not regularly updated despite being known to contain vulnerabilities.”  ESET said the vulnerability was notable because it required no action by a target other than simply viewing a malicious email message in a web browser, which would allow hackers to exfiltrate email messages.  The Record BleepingComputer

Atom Computing Announces Record-Breaking 1,000-Qubit Quantum Computer.  Atom Computing has announced that development of the world’s first quantum computer to exceed 1,000 qubits.  Unlike quantum computers operated by IBM and Google, which use superconducting wires for their qubits, the Atom device uses neutral atoms trapped by lasers in a two-dimensional grid.  Atom CEO Rob Hays says a key advantage of its design is its ability to scale up and add mor qubits.  He noted that quantum computers of the future will need tens of thousands of dedicated error-correcting qubits working alongside the programmable qubits. “With the neutral atom approach,” Hays said, “and the speed of scaling that we have, we will be able to get there much more quickly.”  Atom is now using the system internally and will make its 1,100 qubit computer available to customers next year.  New Scientist ArsTechnica

Tech Giant AI Forum Committed to Voluntary Safeguards Names Director.  The Frontier Model Forum formed over the summer by Microsoft, OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic have appointed a new director and committed $10 million to an AI safety fund.  Chris Meserole of the Brookings Institution has been named as executive director of the Forum.  He noted that while governmental AI regulations are being developed, the Forum seeks “to make sure that these systems are being built as safely as possible.”  The tech giant coalition will first focus on AI risks, such as the technology’s use in designing bioweapons and producing computer code to hack critical systems.  It also plans to create an advisory board in the coming months to help guide its strategy.  The $10 million fund announced Wednesday by the Forum will support academic AI research. Meserole said “there’s real value, even when there is robust regulation and regulatory frameworks in place, in having global standards so that there’s consistency across jurisdictions.”   Financial Times Reuters

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Europe

E.U. Starts First Global Gateway Forum.  The European Union began its first Global Gateway Forum on Wednesday.  Global Gateway projects aim to provide an alternative to global infrastructure investments and projects under China’s Belt and Road Initiative and help the E.U. de-risk from Beijing.  The forum comes as the European Commission said it is “looking into” reports that Chinese state-owned company China Three Gorges (CTG) is the biggest shareholder of Energias de Portugal SA (EDP), a company advising the implementation of the Global Gateway strategy.  South China Morning Post European Commission

Africa

Sudan Army, Paramilitary RSF to Resume Negotiations in Jeddah. Sudan’s army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said they will return to the U.S.- and Saudi-led negotiations in Jeddah.  The Sudanese army accepted the invitation as "negotiations are one of the means that may end the conflict," though it said it would not stop fighting during talks.  The RSF also accepted the invitation.  The African Union and the regional body IGAD will also join the Jeddah talks, which will primarily focus on humanitarian issues while laying the groundwork for a negotiated resolution to the war.  The United States and Saudi Arabia suspended initial talks in June after repeated ceasefire violations.  Witnesses say the pace of the fighting has slowed down in the past week, with both sides resorting to long-range artillery strikes.  Reuters

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