5:30 PM ET, Wednesday, October 18, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
ISRAEL HAMAS WAR
Biden Seeks Aid for Israel, Maintains that Israel Was Not Responsible for Gaza Hospital Blast. President Joe Biden, who is visiting Tel Aviv, reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel following the Hamas attacks, saying that he will ask Congress for an “unprecedented support package for Israel’s defense,” without elaborating. He also committed $100 million in humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank displaced and impacted by the Israel-Hamas conflict. Biden has met with the Israeli war cabinet and survivors or relatives of Israeli victims of the Hamas attacks. In a later speech to the Israeli nation, he gave a veiled, gentle warning on Israel’s response to the attacks, saying, “Justice must be done. But I caution this: While you feel that rage, don’t be consumed by it.”
Biden also reiterated that the U.S. does not believe Israel was behind the explosion at a Gaza hospital that killed hundreds of Palestinians. Biden cited “data” shared from the Pentagon indicating that Israel was not responsible. White House National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson added that this assessment was based on “overhead imagery, intercepts and open source information.”
The Israel Defense Forces have released audio from an alleged conversation between two Hamas fighters discussing the alleged misfiring of a Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket. Israel says that this misfired rocket landed on the al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza. The authenticity of the audio has not been verified at this time. Palestinian officials maintain that an Israeli strike caused the blast at the hospital. CNN New York Times Reuters Wall Street Journal Washington Post
Israel Allows Aid from Egypt Into Gaza. The Israeli government said it will allow Egypt to deliver limited amounts of humanitarian aid into Gaza. Biden said 20 trucks will send in the first aid through the Rafah crossing. He added that if Hamas seizes the aid, shipments will stop. Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said the U.N. will supervise the shipment of aid and foreigners and dual nationals seeking to leave Gaza will be permited as long as the crossing is operating normally. White House officials said aid will start flowing as soon as Friday, once roads are patched up. The Israeli government said the decision to approve the aid was made after a request from Biden. Associated Press
Palestine Says ‘Forced Displacement’ of Gazans a Red line. The Palestinian leadership said in a statement on Wednesday that the forced displacement of Gaza residents is a “red line” that cannot be crossed, in the same way that displacement of Palestinians from Jerusalem and the West Bank “should not be allowed.” Palestinian leadership made the statement after a meeting in the West Bank City of Ramallah. Egypt has separately said it will not allow the forced displacement of refugees from Gaza into Sinai, and Jordan has likewise said it will not accept Palestinian refugees. Reuters
Lebanon’s Hezbollah Touts Strength Amid Ongoing Border Clashes. Lebanon’s Hezbollah warned on Wednesday that it is “thousands of times stronger” than before and will put up a resounding “resistance” against any “mistake” from Israel and its Western allies. Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine made the warning in a speech to thousands of supporters in Lebanon in response to the Gaza hospital strike. Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged fire on the Lebanon-Israel border almost daily since the Hamas attacks. Hezbollah said it launched attacks on five Israeli military positions near the border and that two of its fighters were killed in south Lebanon during clashes on Wednesday. The Israeli army said it is responding to the attacks. Hezbollah attacks have been contained so far, but the group has threatened increased actions. Israel has said it does not seek a wider war on its northern front, but maintains it is ready to respond to any Hezbollah threats. The U.S. has warned Hezbollah and Iran from getting involved in the Israel-Hamas conflict, sending two aircraft carrier strike groups and other military assets to the region to deter an escalation of the war. The U.S. State Department raised its travel advisory for Lebanon on Tuesday to the most severe level, warning U.S. citizens against visiting the country. Reuters
U.S. Imposes Sanctions Targeting Hamas Funding. The Biden administration issued sanctions on Wednesday targeting Hamas’ funding by going after what it said was “a secret Hamas investment portfolio”, a Gaza-based cryptocurrency business, and a financial facilitator tied to Iran. The sanctions were imposed under a terrorism-related executive order and targeted nine individuals and one entity based in Gaza, Sudan, Turkey, Algeria, and Qatar. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. took the actions against the Hamas financiers and facilitators in response to the militant group’s attacks in Israel. Reuters U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S. Vetoes U.N. Security Council Resolution on Israel-Hamas Conflict. The U.S. vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution on Wednesday over action on Israel and Gaza. The Brazil-drafted resolution called for humanitarian pauses in the conflict between Israel and Hamas in order to allow humanitarian aid access to Gaza. Voting on the text has been delayed twice as the U.S. tries to broker aid access to the Gaza Strip. Twelve members voted in favor of the resolution, with Russia and Britain abstaining. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, told the Security Council that the U.S. is “on the ground doing the hard work of diplomacy” and is wanting those efforts to “play out.” Russia’s U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia called the veto a demonstration of “hypocrisy and double standards” from the U.S. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan criticized the Security Council’s inability to pass the resolution, saying that the body failed to fulfill its “responsibility” on Gaza. Associated Press Reuters
U.S., Israeli Embassies in Argentina Evacuated After Bomb Threats. The U.S. and Israeli embassies in Argentina were evacuated on Wednesday due to two bomb threats received via email. Anti-bomb squads were deployed to both embassies. Authorities said no explosives were found after searches of the embassies, and the U.S. embassy said it is now operating normally. The threats are believed to be linked to the escalating war between Israel and Hamas and President Biden’s visit to Israel on Wednesday, where he pledged solidarity with Israel in its fight against Hamas. Reuters Wall Street Journal
Fiji Potentially Delaying Opening of Israel Embassy. Fiji could delay opening its embassy in Israel amid concerns about stability in the region due to the conflict between Israel and Hamas. A Fiji government official said that Fiji is still considering whether it will open its embassy in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem and will not move forward “until things stabilize.” Officials say Fiji will decide on the location of the embassy in the next six to 12 months. Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russia Says Ukrainian Missile Downed Over Sevastopol. Russia says it downed a Ukrainian missile over the occupied Crimean port of Sevastopol, the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Regional officials said the missile detonated in a field and did not cause casualties or damage to infrastructure. The Russian Defense Ministry later said Russian air defenses intercepted two converted S-200 anti-aircraft defense missiles over Crimea. Reuters could not immediately confirm the reports. Ukraine has increasingly launched missiles and drones on Russian military targets on the occupied peninsula in recent weeks. Reuters Newsweek
G7 to Discuss Russia Diamond Ban Proposals. G7 countries will discuss four plans to ban Russian diamonds from G7 markets on Thursday. The proposals were prepared by Belgium, India, and a French jewelry industry group alongside the World Diamond Council. A G7 ban would significantly impact Russian diamond exports since G7 countries account for 70% of the global diamond demand. Russia is the world's biggest diamond producer, accounting for 30% of global production. An agreement on a G7 ban would be difficult as it would impact business for the world’s major diamond centers, mainly Belgium, India, and the U.S. The discussion will center around how G7 nations would identify if a diamond originated from Russia and what the consequences will be for those who do not follow the ban. Reuters
Russia Says Armenia Becoming Another Ukraine. Armenian Prime Minister Nikos Pashinyan gave a speech in the European Parliament on Tuesday, emphasizing Armenia’s willingness to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and criticizing the inaction of Armenia’s “security allies,” appearing to reference Russia’s inability to prevent Azerbaijan from seizing the Nagorno-Karabakh region and the resulting mass exodus of ethnic Armenians from the territory. An unnamed “high-ranking” Russian official told Russian state media that Pashinyan’s comments were “irresponsible and provocative” and warned that he is leading Armenia down a dangerous path. The official said Pashinyan is “trying to turn Armenia into Ukraine No. 3, if we count Moldova as Ukraine No. 2, and Pashinyan is taking leaps and bounds along the path of Volodymyr Zelensky," in reference to those countries’ Western leaning policies and E.U aspirations. Russia and Armenia are traditionally close allies, but Yerevan has recently sought to distance itself from Moscow, declining to participate in drills by the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization and joining the International Criminal Court, which has put out a warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s arrest for his role in alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Kyiv Independent RFE/RL
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Chinese Foreign Ministry Says New U.S. Chip Export Curbs ‘Violate’ Market Principles. China’s Foreign Ministry responded critically on Wednesday to the latest round of advanced chip export controls imposed on sales to China. In response to Reuters inquiries, the foreign ministry said "such restrictions and forced decoupling for political purposes violate the principles of the market economy and fair competition." The Commerce Department Tuesday announced expanded restrictions on the sale of advanced AI chips from Nvidia and other manufacturers and limited exports to a broader range of countries, including Iran and Russia. Yang Wang, a senior analyst at London-based Counterpoint Research, said only limited disruptions to the Chinese AI industry would result in the near term, but could increase over the longer term to create a gap between China and other nations in AI development. Reuters
China Proposes Global AI Governance Initiative at Belt and Road Forum. China proposed a global framework for artificial intelligence at the Belt and Road forum in Beijing, highlighting “equal rights” for development of the technology without regard to a nation’s political system. In announcing the Global AI Governance Initiative, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Belt and Road participants that China is prepared to promote “healthy, orderly and safe” AI development in exchanges with other countries. The initiative, which was issued by the Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC), opposes “creating barriers and disrupting the global AI supply chain through technological monopolies and unilateral coercive measures.” It acknowledges sizable opportunities stemming from AI while warning of “unpredictable risks and complicated challenges.” The plan calls on countries to refrain from AI use “for the purposes of manipulating public opinion, spreading disinformation, intervening in other countries’ internal affairs … as well as jeopardizing the sovereignty of other states”. South China Morning Post
Large-Scale Compromise of Cisco Web Software Under Way by Unknown Actor. Upwards of 30,000 devices operating Cisco networking software have been compromised so far through an unpatched vulnerability. Cisco warned Monday of “active exploitation” of its IOS XE software that could grant attackers “full control of the compromised device.” Jacob Baines, VulnCheck chief technical officer, said that Cisco “buried the lede by not mentioning thousands of internet-facing IOS XE web interfaces have been implanted.” Censys has reported observing 34,140 devices “that appear to have the backdoor installed.” The targeted organizations appear to represent the telecommunications sector offering commercial and personal Internet services, according to Censys researchers. A Cisco spokesperson told CyberScoop that it is “working non-stop to provide a software fix and we strongly urge customers to take immediate action as outlined in the security advisory.” The Talos cybersecurity firm could not identify the group behind the compromises, but said they “were likely carried out by the same actor.” CyberScoop BleepingComputer
Drone Technologies Played Role in Hamas Attacks, May Factor in Israeli Responses. Drone tactics analysts report that Israeli forces could combine drone and cyber tactics in an unprecedented way to support a ground offensive into Gaza. At the same time, industry observers say Hamas employed “unexpectedly sophisticated drone tactics,” using small commercial UAV’s to drop munitions on multiple ground targets, including communications towers. According to researchers, Hamas also configured settings on its DJI Phantom drones to evade electronic countermeasures. Dmitri Alperovitch, founder of the Silverado Policy Accelerator, said knew the locations of “critical communications nodes” that they were able to target with drones and other means. Post-attack information indicates, Alperovitch said, “that they have absolutely exquisite intelligence on the location of Israeli secret bases on their communications capabilities.” For Israel’s part, the use of drones hovering over targeted locations to capture personal data from nearby cell phones is a tactic the Israeli Defense Forces have practiced, and could enable the use of ground-combat robots and additional reconnaissance drones as preparations for an attack. As DefenseOne notes, Israel first sent armed drone swarms into Gaza in 2021, enabling data extraction from specific targets, including text messages and location information. DefenseOne
Deepfake of African Union Leader Succeeds in Completing Calls to European Officials. Unidentified threat actors employing AI-enabled video deepfakes impersonating Moussa Faki, chair of the African Union Commission, were able to conduct calls with several European officials. A spokesperson for Faki said that fake emails were used to request the calls. The European states involved were not identified. The objectives of the calls were not clear, but may have involved an attempt to steal digital identities providing access to restricted information. European officials were targeted last year by deepfake video calls that involved a person posing as Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko. Cybernews
Ukraine-U.S. Cyber Collaborations Prior to Russian Invasion Thwarted Moscow Goals. A hunt forward collaboration between the U.S. and Ukraine was critical to fending off Russian cyberattacks in the opening days of the invasion, according to Illia Vitiuk, chief of Ukraine’s intelligence service cyber division. Vitiuk offered rare insights into the joint mission in an interview with Recorded Future’s Click Here podcast last month, noting that Russian military intelligence believed they would collapse Ukraine’s digital infrastructure in short order. Those “disastrous effects” were avoided, Vitiuk said, because of Ukraine’s prior hardening of its systems and because joint hunt forward teams had removed hidden Russian malware from Ukrainian networks weeks before Russia attacked. George Dubynski, deputy minister in Ukraine’s Ministry of Digital Transformation, said that Russian hacking behavior changed in the fall before the invasion, indicating that Russian was preparing for large-scale operations. “We found some unusual activities,” Dubynski said, with hackers changing nicknames and abandoning familiar chat rooms. These were subtle indicators, but Dubynski said they were “the first sign of some future attacks.” The Record
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
U.S. Imposes Sanctions Targeting Iran’s Missile, Drone Programs. The Biden administration imposed new sanctions targeting Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs on Wednesday. The measures target 11 individuals, eight entities and one vessel in Iran, China, Hong Kong and Venezuela. The entities targeted include an Iranian producer of jam-resistant guidance systems; an Iran-based, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-owned company that repairs lawful intercept technology; and Iranian electronics companies. The sanctions also target several people in Iran and China who facilitated the transfer of dual-use electronic components to Iran, as well as a network the Treasury Department said facilitated the supply of drones and other weapons to Venezuela. The sanctions come as Iran supplies drones to Russia and helps Moscow build drones for use in Ukraine, which Russia and Iran deny. The measures also come as U.N. Security Council measures aimed at curbing Iran’s missile development expire. Russia said on Tuesday that with the lapse of the U.N. sanctions, Moscow will no longer need Security Council approval to send missile technology to Tehran, without saying whether it plans to support Iran’s missile program. CNN Reuters U.S. Department of the Treasury
U.S. Thwarts Another Drone Attack Targeting U.S. Forces in Iraq. The U.S. military thwarted another drone attack targeting U.S. forces in Iraq on Wednesday. The attack targeted the al-Harir air base, which houses U.S. troops in the northern Iraqi city of Erbil. Kurdistan Counter Terrorism, the Iraqi semi-autonomous Kurdistan region’s security agency, said the drone in the attack was downed in a desert area in the village of Batas in the Harir district. An Iraqi armed group called Tashkil al-Waritheen claimed responsibility for the attack. Earlier, the U.S. intercepted two drones targeting al-Asad base. One of the drones still managed to explode, causing minor injuries to U.S. troops and damaging some equipment. The attacks came after the Gaza hospital explosion that killed hundreds of Palestinians and amid increasing tensions in the region over the Israel-Hamas conflict. Associated Press CNN Reuters Politico
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