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5:30 PM ET, Wednesday, November 8, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's top headlines:  

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel Does Not Intend to ‘Reoccupy’ Gaza Long-Term. Israel does not intend to "reoccupy" Gaza or control it for a long time, according to a senior Israeli official. "We assess that our current operations are effective and successful, and we'll continue to push," the Israeli official told reporters, but the offensive is “not unlimited or forever.”  The official did not provide a specific timeframe.  Israel has been vague so far about its plans for the Gaza Strip should it succeed in its mission to destroy Hamas.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel would oversee security in Gaza "for an indefinite period.”  His statement prodded U.S. officials to warn against an Israeli reoccupation.  Reuters

Israel Continues Gaza Attacks, Palestinian Officials Report Strike on Refugee Camp.  Israeli forces continued ground and air attacks on Gaza.  Israel’s military said on Wednesday that it has destroyed 130 tunnel shafts used by Hamas since the start of its ground invasion of the Gaza Strip.  The Israel Defense Forces said it found stores of water and oxygen in the tunnels, which it said indicated plans for prolonged stays.  Palestine’s interior ministry said an air strike on a house near a hospital in the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza killed at least 19 people.  Hamas then claimed that air strikes destroyed three mosques in the southern Gaza Strip.  Reuters Washington Post 

Qatar Mediating Hostage Negotiations with Hamas.  Qatar is negotiating mediations to secure the release of 10-15 hostages held by Hamas in exchange for a 1-2 day humanitarian pause in Gaza.  Qatar, where several Hamas leaders are based, has been leading mediation efforts between Hamas and Israeli officials over the release of hostages captured during the attacks on October 7. The negotiations are being coordinated with the U.S.  President Joe Biden said on Tuesday that he had urged Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to humanitarian pauses in the fighting in Gaza, which G7 foreign ministers backed on Wednesday.  Al Jazeera Reuters

UN says Both Sides of Israel-Hamas Conflict Committed War Crimes.  U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Turk said on Wednesday that war crimes have been committed by both Israel and Hamas in the ongoing conflict.  Speaking at the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt, Turk said the Hamas attacks and taking of hostages on October 7 were war crimes, while Israel’s “collective punishment” and “unlawful forcible evacuation” of Palestinian civilians in Gaza are also war crimes.  Turk also called for a ceasefire to facilitate more aid deliveries into Gaza, the release of hostages and a “durable end to the occupation.”  U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres likewise criticized Hamas for using “human shields” while also saying civilian casualties in Gaza shows there is something “clearly wrong” with Israeli military operations targeting Hamas.  U.N. News Reuters Reuters

South Africa to Issue Formal Reprimand to Israeli Envoy.  South Africa is reportedly planning to summon Israel’s ambassador to issue him with a “demarche,” or a formal reprimand through diplomatic channels.  South African officials did not provide a reason for the reprimand, which will come days after South Africa recalled diplomats from Israel over Israeli attacks in the Gaza Strip.  South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor on Monday criticized Israeli ambassador Eliav Belotsercovsky over public comments he made that “disrespect" South Africa.  He did not specify which comments he was referring to.  Israel’s embassy in South Africa did not comment on the matter.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky Speaks at Reuters NEXT Conference.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke virtually at the Reuters NEXT conference in New York on Wednesday.

Regarding battlefield developments, Zelensky said there has been “slow steps forward” in southern and eastern Ukraine and “good steps” near the Kherson region.  He reiterated that he believes Ukraine will have success and that “we’ll try to show the results this year.”  He highlighted delays in decision making as a key concern, noting how when Ukrainian soldiers on the southern front faced minefields, they “waited for ammunition (for) seven months.”  He also maintained that the war will end when Russian troops leave Ukraine and “go to their own land,” saying that in any deal where Ukraine gives up territory to Russia, “the territories of other countries will be compromised.”

Regarding the situation in the U.S., Zelensky warned that “some voices from Republicans are now really dangerous,” referencing doubts amongst some lawmakers over whether to continue aid for Ukraine.  Zelensky said that if the U.S. relinquishes support for Ukraine, “we will fight without you” to achieve freedom from Russia.

Zelensky also touched on shifting attention from Ukraine to the Middle East amid the Israel-Hamas conflict.  While not calling one issue more important than the other, he said the “full-scale war” in Ukraine is not comparable.

Zelensky also lauded the European Commission’s recommendation for Ukraine to start formal negotiations towards accession to the E.U.  He highlighted Ukraine’s work on reforms, especially anti-corruption efforts, to achieve the Commission’s endorsement.  Reuters  

Ukraine Claims Responsibility for Assassination of Pro-Russian Politician.  Mikhail Filiponenko, a pro-Russian politician who was a member of the regional assembly in the Russia-occupied Luhansk region, was killed on Wednesday in a car bombing.  Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed responsibility for the assassination and said it worked with local Ukrainian partisans in the operation.  Ukraine’s military intelligence said Filiponenko was involved in organizing “torture camps” in the Luhansk region.  The GUR also threatened other high-profile collaborators in Russian-occupied areas, saying “all war criminals will be punished.”  Al Jazeera Politico Kyiv Post RFE/RL

Ukraine Reports Increase in Russian Attacks Against Energy Infrastructure.  Ukraine’s energy ministry reports that Russia attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure facilities 60 times in the last few weeks.  Kyiv has warned of increased Russia attacks on Ukraine’s power grid ahead of the coming winter months, when public energy consumption will be at its highest.  While Ukraine has stronger air defenses compared to last winter, its energy sector has yet to fully recover from last year’s attacks.  Ukraine’s military spy agency says Russia has stockpiled hundreds of missiles specifically for a winter air campaign.  Reuters

U.S. Transportation Secretary Visits Kyiv, Appoints Infrastructure Advisor.  U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg arrived in Kyiv on Wednesday for an official visit.  Buttigieg met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov and other senior Ukrainian government officials to discuss Ukraine’s economic recovery and the impact of Russia’s invasion on Ukrainian supply chains and logistics routes.  USDOT assistant secretary for aviation and international affairs Annie Petsonk joined Buttigieg on the trip.  Buttigieg also appointed Robert Mariner as a new American infrastructure and transportation advisor for Ukraine.  Mariner has done engineering work for the U.S. Air Force and Navy and was a former advisor to the transportation counselor in the U.S. Embassy in Afghanistan.  Kyiv said last month that the U.S. is providing nearly $700 million to help improve Ukraine’s transportation infrastructure.  Kyiv Independent Reuters

Britain Imposes New Sanctions on Russian Gold, Oil. Britain imposed sanctions on 29 people and entities in Russia's gold and oil sectors.  British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said the sanctions strengthen restrictions on Russia’s ability to generate revenues from its gold and oil, which have been critical sources of funding for its military.  Those targeted by the sanctions include Russia's largest gold producers, Nord Gold Plc and Highland Gold Mining Ltd., and energy trading firm Paramount Energy & Commodities DMCC, which is accused of helping Russia evade oil-related sanctions.  The sanctions also targeted a U.A.E.-based network accused of channeling over $300 million in gold revenues to Russia.  Britain’s National Crime Agency (NCA) also warned financial institutions about Russian attempts to launder sanctioned gold.  Reuters Kyiv Independent

New Slovak Government Rejects the Ukraine Military Aid Package.  Slovakia's new government rejected a previously drafted plan to give rockets and ammunition to Ukraine. The decision follows through on a pledge by incoming Prime Minister Robert Fico to cease military aid to Kyiv. The aid package included 140 KUB air defense system rockets, thousands of 125 mm cannon ammunition and four million rounds of small arms ammunition. Fico's government rejected the package at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday.  Fico ran his campaign criticizing Western military support for Ukraine and sanctions on Russia and is adamant on pushing for peace talks. Fico's leftist SMER-SSD party won a Sept. 30 election and has since formed a ruling coalition with the center-left HLAS and nationalist SNS parties. When asked about Slovakia's new direction during a press conference on Wednesday, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said he would not comment on individual cases but emphasized it is in NATO allies’ best interest to continue to support Ukraine.  Reuters Washington Post

Putin Promotes Russia-China High-Tech’ Military Cooperation. President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese General Zhang Youxia, China’s No. 2 military official and vice-chair of the Central Military Commission, in Moscow on Wednesday.  Putin lauded “high-tech” military cooperation between Beijing and Moscow and called for expanded collaboration on military satellites and other prospective defense technologies.  Putin maintained that such cooperation does not mean Russia and China are “building any military alliances based on Cold War patterns,” asserting that collaboration is a stabilizing force in the world.  Last month, a bipartisan U.S. Congressional panel said that Washington must prepare for potential simultaneous wars with Russia and China and by expanding its conventional forces, strengthening alliances and enhancing its nuclear weapons modernization program.  Reuters South China Morning Post

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

China’s Xi Calls for Global Collaboration on AI Development at Internet Conference.  Chinese leader Xi Jinping, speaking at an annual Internet conference in Wuzhen, said there is a need for “proper handling” of technological challenges, including cyberspace rule-making, social risks, and ethical issues.  He also pointed to the need for safe development of AI applications. There is a particular need for the international community, Xi said, to take the development of its shared future in cyberspace to the next level.  The move toward security in cyberspace requires respect for cyber sovereignty and individual nations’ methods of digital governance.  To avoid frictions in the continued development of cyberspace, Xi said “there’s need to respect international rules, oppose seeking hegemony, bloc confrontation and [an] arms race in cyberspace.”  He reiterated China’s willingness to work globally for implementation of the Global Artificial Intelligence Governance Initiative, a framework for AI oversight that Beijing proposed at its Belt and Road Forum in October.  That initiative advocates that all nations “regardless of their size, strength or social system” should have “equal rights” as AI undergoes further development.  The Wuzhen conference, which is in its 10^th year, is expected to include 20 sub-forums addressing the Global Development Initiative, coordinated transformation toward digitalization, and green growth and AI, among other topics.  South China Morning Post Associated Press

Highly Competitive Chinese AI Sector Struggles with Skill Shortages.  The Chinese social networking firm, Maimai, reports that for every five new AI jobs in China, there are only two qualified employees.  The surge in AI labor market demand is driven by China’s leading big tech firms, ByteDace, Alibaba, Tencent, and Huawei.  ByteDance led the group with the greatest number of AI job vacancies over the last three years.  Also competing for scarce talent are the Meituan food delivery service, Xiaohongshu social media platform, and Baidu internet and AI conglomerate.  AI specialists earn average monthly salaries up to $6,388, which is more than 6 percent higher than last year and dwarfs the average monthly salary of $2,600 for Beijing-based white-collar workers.  Algorithm and natural language processing engineers account for 46 percent and 11 percent of AI job demand, respectively.   Computer-vision engineers, algorithm researchers, autonomous-driving-system engineers and data-mining engineers account for the remainder in this highly competitive sector.  Maimai found that corporations place the highest value on ChatGPT researchers, who can earn as much as $9,000 monthly.  By location, Beijing accounted for 36 percent of AI job openings, followed by Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou.  Almost 80 percent of AI job vacancies exist in the country’s top five cities.  South China Morning Post

Meta Mandates Disclosure of Digital Changes to Election Ads on Facebook, Instagram.  Alterations by AI or other digital methods to political or election-related advertising on Facebook and Instagram will need to be disclosed, Meta Platforms announced Wednesday.  A Meta blog post elaborated that, effective in January, altered ads depicting real people’s words or actions that did not actually occur, or digital images of a person who does not exist, must be disclosed.  Meta also will require advertisers to disclose if ads show events that did not take place, alter footage of a real event, or portray a real event without the true image, video, or audio recording of the actual event.  The policy changes for election-related advertising follow Meta’s earlier announcement that bars political advertisers from using the platform’s generative AI tools.  Meta’s updated policy does not require disclosures for digital alterations that are "inconsequential or immaterial to the claim, assertion, or issue raised in the ad" such as image size adjusting, cropping an image, color correction, or image sharpening.  Reuters Cybernews Bloomberg Wall Street Journal

Samsung Unveils ‘Gauss’ Chatbot Designed for Smartphones, Other Devices.  South Korea’s Samsung corporation Wednesday introduced its own generative AI chatbot, Gauss, which will be installed on the company’s smartphones and other devices next year.  Daniel Araujo, a Samsung mobile executive, said that beginning in 2024 the chatbot will "offer meaningful and innovative experiences optimized for our users' most important functions based on their individual usage patterns and preferences."  Gauss’ capabilities include composing emails in Korean and English, summarizing reports, translating documents, and creating photos and artwork.  The application consists of  three tools: Samsung Gauss Language, Samsung Gauss Image, and Samsung Gauss Code.  Samsung Gauss Code, which works with its code assistant called code.i, focuses on development code to help developers write code quickly.   Gauss was developed by Samsung Research and currently is being used in productivity applications internally.  Samsung’s model is named after mathematician Carl Friedrich Gauss who established the theory known as the bell curve.  According to the company, the name "reflects Samsung's ultimate vision for the models, which is to draw from all the phenomena and knowledge in the world in order to harness the power of AI to improve the lives of consumers everywhere.”  Nikkei Asia ZDNet TechCrunch

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

European Commission says Turkey Backsliding on Democracy, Rule of Law.  The European Commission's annual report on Turkey's long-stalled E.U. membership bid criticized Ankara’s "serious backsliding" on democratic standards, including rule of law, human rights and judicial independence.  The report is intended to inform Turkey's progress towards meeting standards for E.U. membership.  The report could further strain ties between Turkey and the E.U., which have clashed over issues like immigration and the Israel-Hamas conflict. Turkey's bid to join the EU has been frozen for years after launching membership talks in 2005. It has dismissed such criticism from the Commission as biased in years past.  Euronews Reuters Financial Times 

Serbia Detains over 4,500 Migrants, Seize Weapons.  Serbian police have detained thousands of migrants after two weeks of daily raids as part of a nationwide operation to curb illegal migration and human trafficking, which was launched after a shootout in which three migrants died.  The Serbian Ministry of Interior said that since October 27, Serbian authorities have rounded up some 4,500 migrants in the municipalities of Subotica, Sombor and Kikinda near the Hungarian border in the north and transferred them to government-controlled camps. The ministry said that 8 smugglers and 119 people have been arrested on charges of human trafficking and illegal possession of weapons and drugs. The police also said they seized five assault rifles, five handguns, over 1,500 rounds of various calibers, alongside hundreds of foreign passports.  Reuters

Pakistan PM says Expulsion of Afghans Linked to Taliban Non-Cooperation on Militant Attacks.  Pakistan said on Wednesday that it is expelling hundreds of thousands of undocumented Afghans in response to the Taliban-led administration’s unwillingness to address militants launching attacks against Pakistan from Afghanistan.  Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwar ul Haq Kakar said Afghanistan’s “non-cooperation” means the expulsion of Afghans should not be “unexpected or surprising.”  Anwar also said the at least 25,000 Afghans waiting in Pakistan for resettlement in the U.S. will not be deported.  Islamabad previously said suicide bombings in Pakistan in recent months have been carried out by Afghan nationals.  The Taliban has denied such accusations and maintains that it is not behind insecurity in Pakistan.  Associated Press Reuters

The data cut-off for this product was 4:00p.m. E.T.

Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes and Ryan Simons contributed to this report.

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