5:30 PM ET, Wednesday, November 15, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:
THE TOP STORIES
Biden and Xi Meet in San Francisco. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met for the first time in a year in San Francisco on Wednesday. Biden opened the meeting by saying that it is important for him and Xi to meet and have clear “leader to leader” communication, adding that tensions between their countries should “not veer into conflict.” Xi likewise said that the U.S. and China have "the most important bilateral relationship in the world” and that it is “not an option” for the countries to turn their backs on each other. He also said that “Planet Earth is big enough” for both superpowers and that both sides should be “fully capable of rising above differences” as conflict would lead to “unbearable consequences” for all. Both sides are expected to discuss military relations, economic issues, artificial intelligence, and drug trafficking, as well as Taiwan, the South China Sea, Ukraine, North Korea, and human rights. Biden is also expected to call on China to push Iran to not encourage further provocative action from its proxies in the Middle East. Biden is also expected to raise alleged Chinese influence operations to interference in foreign elections. Biden administration officials have tried to lower expectations about concrete outcomes from the meeting, saying that the mere fact that Biden and Xi are meeting is a sign of progress towards reducing friction between Washington and Beijing. Xi is expected to use his trip to push for foreign investment amid China’s economic slowdown and uncertainty caused by expanding Chinese security rules. Reuters New York Times South China Morning Post
U.S.-China Climate Accord Announced Ahead of Biden-Xi Meeting. Ahead of the Biden-Xi meeting, the U.S. and China reached a rare climate accord. The two countries agreed to restart formal climate change talks, which have been on hold for over a year, and accelerate coordination on curbing methane emissions — the first time China has made such a commitment — and transitioning to renewable energy. Both sides also agreed to lessen other non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions, forest loss, and plastic pollution. The agreement came after three days of meetings between U.S. climate envoy John F. Kerry and his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, in California last week. Climate officials welcomed the deal, saying that U.S.-China climate cooperation is needed to meet global climate goals. South China Morning Post Washington Post
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Israel says it Uncovered Hamas Command Center at Gaza Hospital. Israel’s military said it found an operational command center and military equipment used by Hamas during a raid on the Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza. Israeli military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said Israeli troops are still searching Al-Shifa but have found automatic weapons, grenades, ammunition and flak jackets at an undisclosed building in the hospital compound. Another Israeli military spokesman, Lt. Col. Jonathan Conricus, said in a video reportedly filmed at Al-Shifa that showed weapons and Hamas military uniforms which he said were hidden behind M.R.I. machines, storage units, and behind a “blast-proof door.” The assertions could not be independently verified. The Israeli military also said it found an “operational command center and technological assets” in one hospital department. Hamas has called the assertions “a fabricated story that no one will believe.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the entry of Israeli forces into the hospital, saying there is nowhere Hamas is out of reach and vowing to eliminate the militant group and return hostages it has taken. Israel’s military maintains that after killing militants in a clash outside the hospital, there has been no fighting or friction with patients or staff in the facility. Witnesses said it is tense inside the hospital, but there were no reports of anyone hurt inside the hospital grounds. Reuters New York Times Washington Post
U.S. Assessed Hamas Operations at Gaza Hospital Based on Intercepts. The U.S. assessment this week that Hamas and other Palestinian militants have been operating within Gaza’s Al-Shifa Hospital was based partially on intercepted communications of fighters within the compound. The people familiar with the matter declined to provide more details about the U.S. intelligence on Al-Shifa, but emphasized that the signals intelligence was among several pieces of information gathered by the U.S. and that it was collected independently of Israel. The U.S. hasn’t been able to determine details of Hamas’s alleged operations at Al-Shifa, including the size and scope or whether the group’s fighters are operating inside the hospital or underground, a U.S. official said. Sources said the U.S. has said it has also gathered intelligence about other hospitals potentially being used by militants. Wall Street Journal
U.S. Middle East Official Visits Region. President Joe Biden’s top Middle East advisor — Brett McGurk, National Security Council coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa — arrived in Israel on Wednesday. He is meeting with Israeli and Palestinian officials to discuss a variety of issues, namely securing the release of hostages taken by Hamas. His visit comes amid reports that Qatar is seeking the release of 50 hostages in exchange for a three-day ceasefire in Gaza and the release of several Palestinian women and children held in Israeli jails. McGurk is also set to meet with Jordanian and Gulf officials. Wall Street Journal
Germany Suggests U.N. Control of Gaza After Israel-Hamas Conflict. Germany has proposed that the U.N. could take control in Gaza following the Israel-Hamas conflict. A German proposal in a nonofficial document dated October 21 considers five scenarios for a post-Hamas Gaza. The U.N. scenario would have the “internationalization” of Gaza with “a carefully organized transition” to Palestinian self-administration,” ideally” through elections with an international coalition providing security. The document said U.N. control avoids issues with other scenarios such as a return to the status quo or Israeli reoccupation. It also makes up for single actors like the Palestinian Authority (PA) or Egypt being unable or unwilling to take over. Germany did note that the U.N. plan would “require significant investment of political capital and financing.” The document ends by saying the E.U. must be proactive in helping decide a post-Hamas future for Gaza. Palestinian officials have pushed back against the proposal, saying that U.N. control of Gaza is “unacceptable.” Abdalrahim Alfarra, head of the Palestinian Mission to the E.U., Belgium and Luxembourg, said that the PA had not been consulted on the proposal and criticized the document for not mentioning any ceasefire. Alfarra added that a U.N. role in providing protection and security at the borders of two future countries, Israel and Palestine, is needed, similar to how blue helmets operate in the south of Lebanon. Politico
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russia Attempting Multiple Offensive Operations Along Ukraine Fronts. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses that Russia is attempting multiple offensives along frontlines in Ukraine, particularly in the Kupiansk, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka directions. However, ISW said that Ukraine is also continuing its own offensives, advancing in western Zaporizhzhia region and on the east bank of the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region. Russia’s military will likely be limited in its ability to launch offensive operations as it must choose between positioning forces for defense against Ukrainian attacks or supporting efforts to regain the initiative elsewhere. Kyiv Independent Institute for the Study of War
E.U. Considers New Russia Sanctions. The European Union’s executive said on Wednesday that it proposed a new sanctions package targeting Russia aimed at tightening previous measures passed since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The proposal will set into action final talks between the 27 member states to finalize the new sanctions. Officials say they want to have this 12th package operational by the end of 2023. While the E.U. Commission did not go into detail about the new measures, talks have focused on a ban on Russian diamonds, better enforcement of the price cap on Russian oil, and tighter measures to prevent Russia from getting machinery, chemicals, lithium batteries, and other dual-use components that can be used to produce military systems. Associated Press Bloomberg Kyiv Independent Wall Street Journal
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
NSA, NIST Officials View China, AI Safety Challenges at Aspen Cyber Summit. Rob Joyce, NSA’s cyber director, told the Aspen Cyber Summit on Thursday that China likely will try to focus the U.S. on domestic cybersecurity vulnerabilities as a component of its military preparations against Taiwan. Joyce singled out transportation, logistics and defense sectors as Chinese targets “to be hit pretty hard with the intent of breaking those supply chain lines and the ability to deliver material.” He went on to say that critical nodes in the supply chain – air, sea, and rail – “will all be things that will be focused on and targeted.” Also speaking at the Aspen summit, Laurie Locascio, director of the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), said that AI figures prominently in the institute’s agenda as it has been tasked by the White house with setting standards for red-team testing as well as developing guidelines and best practices for AI safety and security. Locascio also outlined efforts to develop secure algorithms for a post-quantum cryptography environment, noting that NIST does not have “thousands of people working on this.” She projected that the transition to post-quantum cryptography “is going to take years and years, it’s going to be expensive, it’s not going to be cheap.” The Record
Microsoft Unveils Two New Internally Produced Chips for AI Services. Microsoft will introduce two internally developed computing chips – Maia and Cobalt – for use in AI computing tasks linked to its Azure cloud computing service. The company said Maia will be used to accelerate AI computing and to speed up AI computing tasks and for use in its "Copilot" service for business software users. Maia is optimized to work with foundational AI models and emerges from the company’s collaboration with OpenAI. Ben Bajarin, CEO of Creative Strategies, said the Maia chip will allow Microsoft to provide AI cloud services until PC’s and smartphones develop the capacity to handle AI-powered features. The Cobalt chip, which is based on Arm technology, has been tested with Teams, Microsoft’s business message application. Another projected market is selling direct access to Cobalt in competition with the Graviton in-house chips offered by Amazon. Scott Guthrie, executive vice president of Microsoft's cloud and AI group, explained that the company’s design of Cobalt was “to ensure that we are very competitive both in terms of performance as well as price-to-performance (compared with Amazon's chips)." Reuters Bloomberg
Australian Signals Directorate Says AUKUS Alliance Increases Cyberespionage Threat. The Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) issued a report Wednesday indicating that the country’s partnership with the U.S. and Britain, known as AUKUS, has made it a likely “target for state actors looking to steal intellectual property for their own military programs,” especially in light of the alliance’s focus on nuclear submarines and other advanced military technology. The report spotlights China’s support of the Volt Typhoon cyberespionage campaign against U.S. military and other infrastructure, warning that the same data collection and disruption tactics could be used against Australian infrastructure. The ASD’s annual threat assessment also reports a 23 percent increase in cybercrimes and a 14 percent increase in the average cost of each crime. Defense Minister Richard Marles said the increased interest by state-backed threat actors in Australian infrastructure, including the submarine program, justifies investment in cyberdefense capabilities. Last month, Mike Burgess, director-general of the Australian Security Intelligence Organization said Beijing is “engaged in the most sustained, sophisticated and scaled theft of intellectual property and expertise in human history.” Associated Press
Google DeepMind Lab AI Model Excels at 10-Day Forecasts, Severe Conditions. Google’s AI research lab, DeepMind, has developed an AI-powered weather model that can produce accurate 10-day forecasts in less than a minute. According to an article in the Science journal, DeepMind’s GraphCast outperformed the “gold standard” model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in 90 percent of 1300 tested metrics. The DeepMind model also performed well in forecasts of very severe weather. DeepMind said its system, which relies on decades of weather data as well as current conditions, is able to “predict extreme weather events further into the future than was previously possible.” Weather phenomena such as the paths of cyclones and severe temperatures can also be forecast by GraphCast. The DeepMind team said the AI-powered model is not a replacement for traditional forecast methods, but evidence that AI-based systems have the “potential to complement and improve the current best methods.” Bloomberg TheNextWeb MIT Technology Review
Intel Patches High-Risk Vulnerability in Desktop, Mobile, Server Processors. Intel has patched a high-severity vulnerability impacting CPU’s in the company’s desktop, mobile, and server products, including the Alder Lake, Raptor Lake, and Sapphire Rapids microarchitectures. Successful exploitation of the flaw could result in threat actor access to target systems, the extraction of sensitive data, and computer malfunction. The vulnerability named Reptar carries an 8.8 severity score. Intel says there have not been any reported incidents involving Reptar in product usage. Intel Tuesday released updates for vulnerable processors. Separate research by Google indicates that manipulation of the Reptar vulnerability can cause unpredictable system operations leading to crashes. Google vulnerability researcher Tavis Ormandy noted the team observed “some very strange behavior while testing,” including “the processor no longer accurately recording the instruction pointer in xsave or call instructions." On Tuesday, a CacheWarp vulnerability in AMD processors was discovered, which poses risks to virtual machines through hacker exploitation to gain access and retrieve data. TheRecordBleepingComputer The Hacker News
Starlink Wins Contract for Free Internet Services in Mexico Through 2026. Starlink, Elon Musk’s satellite Internet service, has been awarded a $90 million contract to provide free Internet services in Mexico through 2026, according to a Mexican government official. Carlos Emiliano Calderon, coordinator of Mexico's digital strategy, said that Starlink offered the best price in the public tender competition. Starlink is among nine companies with which Mexico has signed contracts for free Internet services. Starlink also will provide infrastructure for Mexico's state energy firm through December 2026. Reuters
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia and Oceania
Chinese Law Firm First to Open Branch in North Korea. The Beijing-based law firm Jingsh is opening a branch in North Korea, which will make it the first Chinese legal office to open a branch in the heavily sanctioned state. Jingsh said it is also expanding locations in South Korea and Japan next year to capitalize on “China’s unique advantages of geographical proximity and cultural exchanges” with the three countries. The announcement comes as Pyongyang looks to China, its main trade partner and main source of investment, to revive its economy. Jingsh said its North Korea office will provide legal services to Chinese investors and advise on North Korean foreign direct investment regulations. North Korea reportedly revised its foreign investment law to attract more high-tech companies and general investment to its over 20 special economic zones, many of which are built and co-managed with China. South China Morning Post
Myanmar Rebels Take Border Crossing with India. Rebels in Myanmar’s western Chin state overran two of the military junta’s military bases near the border with India and have also taken control of a border crossing across the Indian state of Mizoram. Most of the nearly 5,000 Myanmar nationals who had fled to India to escape the fighting have returned home as the situation had calmed down, according to local leaders. The rebel advances add to their efforts to take control of part of Myanmar’s porous border with India. The successes also add to growing momentum in the rebel offensive against Myanmar’s military, known as “Operation 1027.” Reuters Associated Press
Europe
Estonia PM Signals Interests in Being Next NATO Chief. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday that she is interested in becoming the next secretary general of NATO. When asked at the Politico Defense Summit in Washington whether she would consider taking the post, she replied, “Yes.” Kallas has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine and critic of Russia and has also called for more thorough NATO defenses for the Baltic states. NATO’s current chief Jens Stoltenberg is set to step down in October 2024 after 10 years in the role. Kallas had been popular in Estonia after becoming its head of government in January 2021 until this August, when it was revealed that her husband remained a key shareholder in a company that continued operations in Russia after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Kallas has denied knowing details of the business and has refused to resign despite calls to do so. Associated Press Bloomberg Politico
The Middle East
IAEA Reports Iran Nuclear Enrichment Advancing. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports that Iran has enough uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to weapons-grade, for three atomic bombs. A report from the agency says that Iran's stock of uranium enriched to up to 60% grew from 14.8 pounds to 282.9 pounds since the previous report on Sept. 4. That is more than three times the roughly 92.6 pounds theoretically needed, if enriched further, to build a nuclear bomb. A diplomatic source said the amount is very high “especially if you don’t use it for anything,” referring to Iran’s claims that it does not produce nuclear weapons. Weapons-grade enrichment is roughly 90% purity. However, Iran’s rate of enrichment to 60% has slowed from around 6.6 pounds a month from 19.8 pounds earlier this year, possibly due to indirect negotiations with the U.S. that led to the September prisoner swap deal. Iran’s cascades of uranium-enrichment centrifuges in operation have also remained the same. Still, tensions between Tehran and the IAEA remain high, with the agency saying that Iran is still not cooperating on key issues such as the re-installment of monitoring equipment and Tehran’s so-called “de-designation” of IAEA inspectors assigned to the country. Reuters Al Jazeera
The Americas
Paraguay Reestablishing Ties with Venezuela. Paraguay and Venezuela have decided to reestablish diplomatic ties. The South American countries broke off formal relations in January 2019 after Paraguay recognized Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido as the country’s interim president. Following talks between Paraguay's recently-elected President Santiago Pena and his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro, both sides agreed to restart bilateral relations. The Paraguayan foreign ministry said ambassadors will be formally accredited in the next few days. Reuters
The data cutoff for this product was 4:00p.m. E.T.
Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes, and Ryan Simons contributed to this report.
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