6:00 PM ET, Wednesday, July 26, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Biden Submits Air Force Chief of Staff Nomination. The White House announced on Wednesday that President Joe Biden is nominating General David Allvin as the next Air Force Chief of Staff. If confirmed, Allvin will replace Air Force Chief of Staff General C.Q. Brown, who Biden has nominated to be the next Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Allvin is currently the Air Force’s vice chief of staff and is a career cargo, refueler aircraft and test pilot. Allvin is set to join other top military and civilian DoD officials whose nominations are being blocked by Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.) over the Pentagon’s reproductive health policies. Politico The Hill White House
Biden Orders U.S. Sharing of Russian War Crimes Evidence With World Court. President Joe Biden has reportedly ordered the U.S. government to start sharing evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine with the International Criminal Court in the Hague. While American intelligence agencies have reportedly gathered such evidence about Russian strikes on civilian infrastructure and forced deportations of Ukrainian children from occupied territory, they have so far only shared this intelligence with Ukrainian prosecutors and not with the World Court. Officials say the Pentagon has resisted sharing the information with the ICC over concerns that it will set a precedent for the court to prosecute American troops. It is unclear why Biden is now reportedly approving the information-sharing. Notably, his administration has not publicly announced the move — The New York Times learned of the policy change from officials familiar with the matter. The Pentagon and a national Security Council spokesperson did not immediately respond to requests for comment. New York Times Reuters
U.S. Willing to Take ‘Targeted’ Actions Against China for National Security Reasons, Treasury Official Says. U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Jay Shambaugh on Wednesday said that the Biden administration is prepared to take targeted actions against China to protect human rights and the national security interests of the U.S. and its allies. Speaking before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Shambaugh said such actions would be in response to China’s “non-market” practices that put U.S. companies at a disadvantage, Beijing’s “economic coercion” of countries through trade restrictions, and Chinese punitive actions on U.S. firms and export controls on critical minerals. However, Shambaugh emphasized that such action would not be the same as full economic decoupling from China, which he said would be “disastrous” and nearly impossible to pursue. He also said that the U.S. and China should still cooperate on areas like climate change and debts in developing countries. His comments come as the U.S. considers restrictions on outbound private investment to China. Reuters
U.S. Defense Secretary Austin Visits Papua New Guinea. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin arrived in Papua New Guinea (PNG) on Wednesday, making him the first American Defense Secretary to visit the strategically important Pacific island nation. Austin is scheduled to meet the PNG’s Prime Minister James Marape, Defense Minister Win Badri Daki and other military leaders. Austin’s visit is focused on building on the Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) negotiated between the U.S. and PNG earlier this year, specifically regarding a proposal to expand a “boatrider” provision that allows PNG military personnel to ride in U.S. Coast Guard vessels tracking illegal fishing. The PNG’s parliament is still debating ratifying the DCA, which the U.S. says will expand military cooperation and improve regional security. Austin’s visit to PNG comes amid concerns about China’s military influence and assertiveness in the region. After his PNG trip, Austin will head to Australia to join U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken for an annual meeting with Australian counterparts, which will come amid the joint Talisman Sabre military exercises. ABC News U.S. Department of Defense
Mexico, U.S. to Increase Firearm Tracing. Mexican Security Minister Rosa Icela Rodriguez announced on Wednesday that the U.S. and Mexico have agreed to step up firearm tracing. Rodriguez said that oversight will be increased with a system that will electronically track firearms that have been seized from criminal organizations. Incoming Foreign Minister Alicia Barcena added that the plan will be used to keep track of where guns are found in Mexico in order to inform seizure strategies. This strategy comes after the Mexican government urged a U.S. appeals court to revive a $10 billion lawsuit Mexico brought against U.S. gunmakers, holding them responsible for facilitating arm trafficking to drug cartels. Reuters
Argentina Opening Consulate in China’s Chengdu. Argentina is opening a new consulate in Chengdu, the capital of China’s southwestern Sichuan province. The new consulate, which will be Argentina’s fourth diplomatic mission in China, was announced after Argentinian President Alberto Fernandez signed a decree calling for a reshuffle of Argentina’s consular offices in China to meet “growing demands of compatriots.” The decree said the consulate will open in November. Argentina already has consulates in Shanghai and Guangzhou, and an embassy in Beijing. South China Morning Post
Western Europe
NATO Says Increasing Black Sea Surveillance. NATO said on Wednesday that it is increasing surveillance of the Black Sea region following Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal. The alliance said it will increase reconnaissance operations by deploying more maritime patrol aircraft and drones to the region. The surveillance boost came as NATO criticized Russia’s warning that parts of international waters in the Black Sea, including within Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone, are unsafe for navigation, saying that the Russian warning increases risks of “miscalculation and escalation” and “impediments to freedom of navigation.” Russia earlier said it would consider Ukrainian-bound ships as potential carriers of military cargo, raising concerns that Moscow will target civilian ships in the Black Sea. Reuters
Sweden Says Target of Russia-Backed Disinformation Over Quran Burnings. Sweden’s Minister for Civil Defense, Carl-Oskar Bohlin, told reporters on Wednesday that Sweden is being targeted by a disinformation campaign by “Russian-backed actors” seeking to hurt the image of the Scandinavian country following demonstrations in Stockholm that included Quran burnings. Bohlin said the campaign is amplifying “completely false” accusations that the Swedish government is behind the Quran burnings, adding that the campaign aims to “create division and weaken Sweden’s international standing.” Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson added that Sweden does not “issue permissions” for the Quran burnings but allows for freedom of assembly and expression. The demonstrations have sparked anger across the Islamic world, including in Turkey, which holds a veto to Sweden’s accession to NATO. Ankara has condemned the demonstrations and has called on Sweden to take action against those involved but has yet to say it will not back Sweden’s NATO membership bid over the burnings. Reuters The Guardian
EU Imposes New Sanctions on Belarus. The EU adopted new sanctions against Belarus on Wednesday over Minsk’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Diplomats say the new measures focus on stemming Belarus’s access to dual-use equipment and aviation parts, including aircraft engines. Barron’s CNN Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
U.S. Officials Say Main Thrust of Ukrainian Counteroffensive Underway. U.S. officials say the main thrust of Ukraine’s counteroffensive is now underway in southeastern Ukraine, with one official saying “this is the big test.” The officials say that thousands of Ukrainian reinforcements are being deployed to the front lines in the region for the push. They say that many of them have been trained by the West and had until now been held in reserve. The officials also said that Ukrainian officials say the current push is expected to take three weeks and will focus on advancing towards the city of Tokmak, hopefully continuing on to Melitopol to sever Russian-occupied Ukraine from Crimea, or at least put the peninsula in range of Ukrainian artillery. The officials added that there is a three-point rationale for the escalation in the counteroffensive: first, Ukrainian troops have been making steady progress working through Russian minefields and other entrenched defenses; second, Ukraine’s military is taking advantage of turmoil in the local Russian leadership with the firing of regional Russian commander Major General Ivan Popov, who claimed last month that he was sacked after voicing frustrations about battlefield problems to superiors; and third, Ukrainian artillery strikes on Russian artillery, ammunition depots and command posts behind the front lines have offered an opportunity to push forward. The U.S. officials’ comments come as Russian officials report massive Ukrainian assaults in the south. New York Times
Ukrainian Advances Reported in Southern Ukraine. Ukrainian officials report gradual advances in Ukrainian troops’ offensive in southern Ukraine. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported “successes” in the southeast, including near Staromayorske village in the Donetsk region, and progress towards the southern, Russian-occupied cities of Melitopol and Berdyansk. Separately, she also reported successful attacks on the eastern flank of Bakhmut and fierce fighting on the southern flank of the city in the villages of Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka and Andriivka. Ukrainian deputy prime minister Mykhailo Fedorov added at a drone forum that Ukraine is sending 1,700 drones to the frontlines to help with the counteroffensive. He also said that Ukraine has trained 10,000 drone operators and that another 10,000 are currently in training. His comments built on Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal’s comments at the forum that over 40 Ukrainian companies are developing drones and that drone production has increased tenfold, adding that the Ukrainian government has allocated around $10 billion for Ukrainian drone makers this year. CNN Reuters
Russian Missiles Launched Towards Western, Central Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force warned that Russia launched Kinzhal hypersonic missiles towards the Khmelnytskyi and Kirovohrad regions in western Ukraine and the capital of Kyiv. The Khmelnytskyi regional ministry administration reported explosions in the region, though it is unclear if the blasts were caused by missile impacts or air defense interceptions. Missiles reportedly traveled towards the city of Starokostiantyniv, where an Ukrainian military airfield is located. Officials urged residents in the neighboring Ternopil and Lviv regions to take cover due to missiles also entering their airspace. The Ukrainian air force said earlier that air defenses intercepted two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles fired from a submarine in the Black Sea towards the Vinnytsia region in central Ukraine. CNN Ukrinform Reuters
Ukraine’s SBU Acknowledges Involvement in October Crimea Bridge Attack. Vasyl Malyuk, the head of Ukraine’s Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on Wednesday that his agency was behind the October attack on the Kerch Bridge, which connects Russia with occupied Crimea. Speaking on television, Malyuk clearly said the SBU takes responsibility for the sabotage operation, which reportedly involved a bomb in a truck that detonated on the bridge. Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar first acknowledged Ukrainian involvement in the October attack earlier this month. Malyuk did not mention the July strike on the bridge. Reuters CNN
Russia-Africa Summit Starting in St. Petersburg. A Russia-Africa summit in St. Petersburg is starting on Thursday. The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet with 17 attending heads of African states and that representatives from 49 African countries will be at the summit. The Kremlin added that the meeting will address the African Peace Initiative, which was presented in June, as well as other political, economic and humanitarian issues. A Russian foreign ministry spokesperson said that the summit shows that Western attempts to “cause discord” in Russian-African relations have failed. However, when asked why only 17 heads of state are attending, which is about half the number that attended the first Russia-Africa summit in 2019, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov blamed “brazen interference” from the U.S., France and other Western states, claiming that they applied diplomatic pressure on African countries “to prevent their active participation in the forum.” CNN Reuters
West Says Russia Escalated Crackdown on Dissent After Wagner Mutiny. Western officials believe that the Russian government has escalated its crackdown on dissidents following the failed Wagner mutiny. Officials say that up to seven individuals have reportedly been detained during the crackdown, being removed from their posts or imprisoned. Though the crackdown has not had any visible impact on the frontlines in Ukraine, the officials say it has prevented people from coming forward and voicing criticisms of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian government. Separately, the officials said that Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin is reportedly having a “cash-flow” problem which is affecting his ability to pay his mercenaries. CNN
Asia and Oceania
U.S. Officials, Taliban Representatives to Meet in Qatar. The U.S. State Department announced on Wednesday that U.S. officials will meet Taliban representatives and “technocratic professionals” from key Afghan ministries in Doha, Qatar this week. The department said discussions will focus on humanitarian support for Afghanistan, regional security issues, stabilization of the Afghan economy, counternarcotics efforts, and women’s rights in Afghanistan. Special Representative for Afghanistan Thomas West and Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls, and Human Rights Rina Amiri will take part in the talks. They will precede their trip to Doha with a visit to Astana, Kazakhstan to meet with Central Asian officials to discuss Afghanistan. Al Jazeera Reuters U.S. Department of State
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Visits Turkey, Discusses Ukraine. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Turkey on Wednesday for his first foreign trip since being appointed. Wang met with his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The Turkish foreign ministry said their discussions covered the Ukraine war, the global financial system, and economic and trade relations between Turkey and China regarding issues such as the Belt and Road Initiative and cooperation in areas like nuclear energy, agriculture and civil aviation. Wang and Fidan also reportedly discussed Uighurs in China’s western Xinjiang region. Reuters
Chinese Military AI Advancements Could Increase Risk of Conflict With U.S. The U.S. think tank Center for a New American Security released a report on Tuesday that warns that “revolutionary” Chinese advances in military artificial intelligence (AI) may increase the risk of conflict with the U.S. While both China and the U.S. are working to integrate AI into the militaries, the report says AI plays a “key role” in China’s military ambitions and modernization. The report warns that with successful integration of AI into the People’s Liberation Army, the military balance between the US and China could turn to Beijing‘s favor, which heightens the risk of conflict. The report also warns that AI decision-making could generate bad information that leads to escalation. The report notes that U.S. technology controls will hamper Chinese AI development, and that the military integration needed to put China ahead requires Beijing to pioneer new technologies and operational concepts, which will take time. The report therefore recommends that the US pursue a “combination of competition and selective engagement with China” to both curb China’s military AI development and also establish risk reduction and confidence building measures. South China Morning Post
Middle East and Northern Africa
Additional U.S. F-35 Jets Arrive in Middle East. In response to the attempted seizures of several oil tankers by Iran and harassment by Russian fighters, the U.S. has sent a dozen additional F-35 figure jets to the Middle East. The deployment came after an announcement last week from the Pentagon that the jets would be sent to the region along with a destroyer and the USS Bataan amphibious assault ship to strengthen US Central Command’s capabilities in the region. The F-35 deployment consists of a squadron of stealthy multirole fighters, bringing the total fighter squadrons in CENTCOM to four, including two F-16 squadrons, one A-10 squadron, and one F-35 squadron. CENTCOM has declined to comment on the locations the F-35s are operating from or the length of deployment citing operational security. Air and Space Forces Magazine
Turkey’s Erdogan Meets Palestinian President, Hamas Leader. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Ankara on Wednesday. Sources say talks focused on Palestinian unity and steps to end divisions in the power struggle between the Palestinian authority and Hamas. The Fatah party, Hamas and other Palestinian factions are set to meet in Cairo at the end of July to discuss internal reconciliation and hostilities with Israel. Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
Western States, West African Countries Call for Release of Niger President. Western countries and west African states are calling for the immediate release of Niger President Mohamed Bazoum, who is reportedly being held by presidential guards at his palace in the Niger capital of Niamey. US national security advisor Jake Sullivan said that the US is monitoring the situation and is calling for Bazoum’s release and for the presidential guards to refrain from violence. White House national security spokesperson John Kirby added that for now there has been no decision on evacuating Americans from Niger and that the US is still gathering details on the evolving situation since “it’s not entirely clear what’s going on.” France, which has 1000 to 1500 French soldiers in Niamey, likewise condemned any attempt to forcibly seize power. The West African regional and economic bloc ECOWAS expressed concern about an attempted coup d’état, and called for the release of Bazoum. The African Union likewise condemned what it said was a coup attempt and urged “felon” soldiers to withdraw. The Niger presidency called the situation an “anti-republican” movement “in vain” and that the national army is ready to respond. France 24 Reuters
Chinese Foreign Minister Calls for Unity Amongst Global South. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi urged members of the Global South to “expand their voice” and support each other on key issues and “oppose hegemony and power politics.” Speaking at a BRICS meeting in Johannesburg, South Africa, Wang added that China is a “natural member “of the Global South, positioning Beijing with developing countries as a counter to a US-led bloc. His remarks underscore Chinese efforts to build relations with emerging economies amid escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington. South China Morning Post
Somalia Arrests Military Officers Allegedly Linked to Suicide Bombing. Somali authorities arrested several military officers in connection with Monday’s suicide bombing at the Jale Siyaad military academy in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu which killed at least 30 soldiers. The bombing, which the Al Qaeda-linked al-Shabaab group took responsibility for, was one of the deadliest attacks against a Somali military target in years. Many Somali officials say they suspect that al-Shabaab operatives working within the government and military assisted in the attack. Local government officials say that authorities have arrested dozens of police and military officers on suspicion of helping al-Shabaab to carry out attacks against civilians and soldiers in recent months. The Somali government has not commented on the arrests. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
Chinese Paper Alleges U.S. Cyber Breach of Wuhan Earthquake Monitoring Station. A Chinese state newspaper reported Wednesday that U.S. hackers have compromised systems at an earthquake monitoring facility in Wuhan. The Global Times attributed the cyberattack to American “hacker groups and lawbreakers with government backgrounds.” The paper said the breach posed “a serious threat to national security” and described the operation as a “Trojan horse” attack that was deployed to “illegally control and steal seismic intensity data.” The Global Times said security expert assessments suggested the extracted data were “relevant when constructing military defense facilities.” The seismic monitoring equipment has been “sealed off,” according to the paper. The alleged breach was discovered by China’s National Computer Virus Emergency Response center and the Qihoo 360 Internet security company. The paper also accused the CIA of possessing “cyber weapons [using] extremely strict espionage specifications with various attack techniques interlocked” that can be used to target Internet assets around the world. The CIA’s cyber tools, the paper said, “can control other countries' networks and steal their important and sensitive data anytime, anywhere.” The Record Reuters
AI Leaders Form Industry Body To Create Standards, Safeguards for ‘Next Generation AI’. Four key AI technology companies – Google, OpenAI, Microsoft, and Anthropic – on Wednesday announced plans for the Frontier Model Forum, an industry body seeking to develop safety standards and technical evaluations for the next generation of AI. The forum also will serve as a mechanism for companies and governments to exchange information on AI risks. The companies involved anticipate that next-generation AI systems will have more powerful capabilities than the large language models currently underlying chatbots like ChatGPT, Bard, and others. Anna Makanju, OpenAI’s vice president of global affairs, issued a statement stressing the importance for leading AI companies to “align on common ground and advance thoughtful and adaptable safety practices…”. The announcement of the Frontier Model Forum follows last week’s commitment by the same companies to allow independent tests of their systems and to flag AI-generated images and video. The companies involved say next steps include establishing funding, crafting a charter, and setting up a working group. Other firms involved in development of next generation AI models are invited to participate in the Forum with a pledge to safety and willingness to participate in joint initiatives. In the meantime, discussions continue in Congress on rules and safeguards to protect privacy rights, bolster cybersecurity, and prevent discrimination, among other goals. The passage of such legislation is not thought to be imminent. Industry self-regulation is not without critics, including consumer advocates who say that such efforts derail legislation intended to prevent private sector abuses. Washington Post Reuters
Experts Warn Senate Hearing That Rapid AI Pace Could Pose Bioweapon, Other Threats. The use of artificial intelligence to create bioweapons was one of the potential threats highlighted by AI experts testifying before a Senate hearing on Tuesday. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei was joined by professors Yoshua Bengio and Stuart Russell in a Senate Judiciary Committee session in which the breakneck speed with which AI is being developed and deployed was cited as a key concern. Amodei said he feared AI could be used by a rogue state or terrorist to develop threatening viruses or bioweapons in the next two years. Bengio, an AI professor at the University of Montreal, sounded the alarm over the rapid pace of AI development, registering his surprise over “the giant leap realized by systems like ChatGPT. The shorter timeline is more worrisome.” Russell, a computer science professor at the University of California at Berkeley, told the Senate panel that in contrast with other powerful technologies, AI is harder to understand therefore control. Bengio is among a group of AI experts who in recent months have shortened the timeline from decades to a few years in which AI might reach “supersmart” status, compounding the risk and threat the technology might pose. Washington Post
Ukraine War Speeds Drone Advances through AI Tools, Private Sector Innovation. The war in Ukraine has been especially noteworthy for accelerating the development of military drone technology, with distinct improvements in speed, flight range, and payload capacity among other capabilities. The Washington Post on Wednesday profiled the technology’s wartime use, underscoring how Ukrainian drone companies are innovating to enhance drone lethality, a key advantage for “Ukraine’s outgunned military.” Of special importance is the increasing incorporation of artificial intelligence software in unmanned platforms, which allows them to detect Russian electronic interference defenses and remain locked in on selected targets, even mobile ones. Improved range and maneuverability have led to greater drone effectiveness against Russian targets and allowed their use in complex missions, such as the recent deployment of unmanned naval drones in a successful attack on Russia’s prized Crimea bridge last week. The war, according to the Post, has transformed Ukraine into a “super lab of invention,” with over 200 Ukrainian drone producers working closely with Ukrainian military units to improve capabilities across the spectrum, from reconnaissance and targeting to lethal attack. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told the Post, “this is a 24/7 technology race. The challenge is that every product in every category must be changed daily to gain an advantage.” Fedorov leads the “Army of Drones” program formed to offset Russian advantages in air and artillery. In the last year, the program collaborates with private sector firms to train over 10,000 drone operators and plans to add another 10,000 by the end of the year. Fedorov’s “Army” also is involved in accelerating procurement of drone technology by coordinating contracts between the Defense Ministry and vendors. The process has been reduced, according to drone manufacturer Dmytro Kovalchuk, “from two years to two months.” Washington Post
Australia Fines Meta $14 Million Over Undisclosed Data Collection. An Australian Court has ordered Meta to pay fines totalling A$20 million ($14 million) for collecting user data through a smartphone application that was advertised as a way to protect privacy. The court also ordered Meta, through its subsidiaries Facebook Israel and the app Onavo, to pay an additional A$400,000 in legal costs. The fines were brought after the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) filed a civil lawsuit against Meta after Facebook allegedly used the virtual private network (VPN) Onavo to collect users’ location, time, and app usage frequency for advertising purposes. The court ruling noted that Meta could have been fined hundreds of billions of dollars since Australians have downloaded the app 271,220 times and each breach of consumer law carries a fine of A$1.1 million. In a statement, Meta acknowledged that it never sought to mislead consumers and said “over the last several years we have built tools to give people more transparency and control over how their data is used". Reuters
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