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6:00 PM ET, Wednesday, July 19, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
U.S. Suspends Funding for Wuhan Lab. The Biden administration has suspended funding for the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) after a review found the Chinese research institute “is not compliant with federal regulations and is not presently responsible.” The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which conducted the review, has also proposed barring the Wuhan Institute from further business with the U.S. federal government. The suspension of funding came after the WIV failed to fulfill requests by the U.S. National Institutes of Health for documents related to biosafety concerns and protocols at the research institute. The WIV has been at the center of the theory that Covid-19 originated from a lab leak. The U.S. government has yet to reach a conclusion on the veracity of the theory. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence did say in a recently declassified report that there were safety and security issues at the WIV, but it could not determine whether researchers who fell ill at the lab in fall of 2019 were infected with Covid-19. The HHS has added that the WIV has not received funding from the U.S. National Institutes of Health since July 2020. Bloomberg CNN
Israeli President Herzog Addresses U.S. Congress. Israeli President Isaac Herzog addressed the U.S. Congress on Wednesday. Herzog focused his address on appealing to the “irreplaceable” relationship between the U.S. and Israel. He highlighted security cooperation between the U.S. and Israel, praised the U.S. for the “game changer” Abraham Accords, and elicited applause when lauding Israel’s democracy. Herzog also said that Israel welcomes constructive criticism, especially from the U.S., as long as it does not veer into antisemitism, negates Israel’s right to exist, or questions the Jewish people’s right to self-determination. This comment referred to areas of tensions between the U.S. and Israel over issues such as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s planned judicial reform and the expansion of Jewish settlements. Reuters New York Times
No. 2 DEA Official Steps Down. U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency Principal Deputy Administrator Louis Milione has stepped down from his role after the Associated Press reported on his involvement with Purdue Pharma, a pharmaceutical company that was sanctioned for its involvement in the Opioid epidemic. Milione first worked at the DEA’s Office of Diversion Control and was tasked with regulating the sales of highly addictive narcotics. He then left the DEA to work with Purdue Pharma, consulting for the company as it fought legal challenges in Oklahoma and Ohio over its marketing of the narcotic oxycontin. He also testified on behalf of Morris and Dickson after the company failed to flag thousands of suspicious drug orders at the height of the Opioid epidemic. Milione returned to the DEA in 2021 to work as the agency’s second-in-command. The Associated Press story revealed his work history and obvious conflicts of interest. The DEA has not responded to requests for comments on the matter, but has removed mention of Milione from their website. Associated Press The Hill
Western Europe
UK’s MI6 Chief Contrasts Chinese, Western Approaches to Data, AI Potential. Sir Richard Moore, chief of Britain’s MI6 intelligence agency, this week spoke at the British Embassy in Prague, and gave an interview to Politico, in which he talked about the state of espionage around the world, with a special focus on artificial intelligence. With reference to China’s growing global influence and ambitions, Moore noted that in a variety of “contested spaces” Beijing has offered countries “deals that look too good to be true” and often turn out that way. He highlighted, in particular, the issue of data control, noting that governments are obligated to protect their citizens’ information. Moore said that during the Covid pandemic, China often made the handover of a country’s infection data a condition for providing vaccines, a transaction he described as a “data trap” that erodes national sovereignty. The MI6 chief observed that authoritarian regimes routinely conceal their intentions in a “blizzard” of disinformation, a tendency amplified by artificial intelligence, “which is opening up vast new terrains for fake news.” In light of this widespread “fakery,” Moore said the task of his agency to uncover verifiable truth from human and technical sources “will be even greater.” He noted that AI’s ability to gather and circulate huge amounts of information, rather than putting intelligence services out of business, will have the opposite effect. As he put it, “as AI trawls the ocean of open source, there will be even greater value in landing, with a well-cast fly, the secrets that lie beyond the reach of its nets.” In the AI age, Moore pointed out, intelligence gathering by human beings “will increasingly be defined as those things that machines cannot do,” even as automated capabilities continue to develop at a rapid pace. Consequently, he said, “my teams are now using AI to augment – but not replace – their own judgment about how people might act in various situations. …Some relationships are going to stay uniquely, stubbornly human, and those relationships are at the heart of my service, because my agency is dedicated to preserving human agency.” Noting that China is “not hugely troubled by questions of personal privacy,” Moore said that MI6, and allied services, are committed to “ethical and safe use of AI.” He concluded that while there is uncertainty over where AI will take the world, he remains “hopeful that our common humanity and our shared interest in understanding the power of AI, may yet lead to agreement on global coordination, on which our Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, is leading the way.” Gov.UK Politico The Telegraph
Central and Eastern Europe
Prigozhin Says No More Fighting in Ukraine, Wagner Now Looking to Africa. Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin on Wednesday said that his mercenary group will no longer participate in the Ukraine war. He said that while Wagner had “fought honorably” and has done much for Russia, “what is going on at the front [in Ukraine] is a disgrace that we do not need to get involved in.” He added that Wagner may return to fighting in Ukraine one day, but only when the mercenary group is sure it “will not be forced to shame ourselves.” Prigozhin’s remarks came in a video purportedly showing him welcoming Wagner fighters to Belarus, where Prigozhin agreed to take his mercenaries under the deal that ended the group’s mutiny in Russia. Prigozhin said in the video that Wagner will now work on training the Belarusian military to make it the “second army in the world.” He also said that the group will prepare for a “new journey to Africa,” indicating that Wagner will continue operations in countries like the Central African Republic and Mali following its departure from Russia. BBC CNN Reuters
Russia to Deem Ukraine-Bound Ships ‘Potential Carriers of Military Cargo.’ Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Wednesday it will deem all cargo ships headed for Ukrainian ports as “potential carriers of military cargo” and that the ships’ flag countries will be viewed as parties to the Ukraine war on Kyiv’s side. The ministry said Russia is also declaring the southeastern and northwestern parts of the Black Sea’s international waters to be temporarily unsafe for navigation, without specifying which areas of the sea it was designating. The move comes after Russia withdrew from the UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal, which facilitated the safe export of foodstuffs from Ukrainian ports. New York Times Reuters
Putin Criticizes West Over Grain Deal But Suggests Openness to Rejoining. Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday said that Western countries have “perverted” the Black Sea grain deal and had used it for their own interests rather than humanitarian reasons. He accused the West of using the deal for “political blackmail” and for “enriching transnational corporations, speculators in the global grain market.” Putin then reiterated that Russia could rejoin the deal if the Russian Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) is reconnected to the SWIFT banking payment system; agricultural equipment exports to Russia are resumed; Russian ships and cargo regain access and insurance at ports; the ammonia export pipeline from Russia’s Togliatti to Odesa in Ukraine is repaired; and sanctions on Russian fertilizer companies are lifted. Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal on Monday over what it said was the West’s refusal to fulfill these demands. Reuters
Ukraine Foreign Minister Visiting Pakistan. The Pakistani foreign ministry announced that Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is visiting Pakistan on Thursday. His visit will be the first ministerial visit from Ukraine to Pakistan since the two countries established diplomatic ties in 1993. The ministry said Kuleba will meet his Pakistani counterpart Bilawal Bhutto Zadari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. The ministry did not provide an agenda for Kuleba’s visit. Pakistan recently began importing both discounted Russian crude oil and wheat from Ukraine. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
China Rejects Outside Input on Climate Policy. Chinese President Xi Jinping told Chinese officials that Beijing alone will decide its policies on addressing climate change. Xi said that while China has an “unswerving” commitment to reducing carbon emissions and transitioning to clean energy, it will not be “swayed by others” to achieve these goals, signaling that China’s approach to energy and climate will be shaped by domestic concerns. Xi’s comments came as John Kerry, the U.S. special envoy on climate, concluded his trip to China, which included meetings with China’s Premier Li Qiang and top diplomat Wang Yi. Kerry told reporters on Wednesday that his trip, which many have hoped would help thaw U.S.-Sino relations, was “cordial” and “productive” but did not produce any significant breakthrough. He added that it will “take a little bit more work” to make meaningful progress on climate cooperation between the U.S. and China. Washington Post South China Morning Post
Papua New Guinea Grants U.S. Access to Military Bases for 15 Years. The U.S. military has been granted access to six sites in Papua New Guinea, including a naval base for the next 15 years under a new defense agreement signed between the two countries in May. The U.S. Department of Defense announced on Tuesday that Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will visit Papua New Guinea and Australia later this month to “discuss next steps” to put the agreement into action. Under the deal, the U.S. military will use Lombrum Naval base and Momote airport in northern Papua New Guinea as well as ports and airports in the capital of Port Moresby and Lae in the center of the country. After his visit to Papua New Guinea, Austin will travel to Australia with U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to attend a bilateral two-plus-two meeting of top defense and diplomatic officials. Nikkei Asia
Former Pakistan PM Khan to Face Charges of Exposing Official Secrets. Pakistani Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah stated on Wednesday that former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan will face charges of allegedly exposing official secrets related to a diplomatic correspondence between Islamabad and Washington. The charges came after Khan’s former principal secretary Azam Khan came forward with a Court statement on Wednesday alleging that an encrypted U.S. diplomatic letter was manipulated by Khan in March of 2022 in order to serve his political agenda. Khan had alleged that this same letter was an integral part of a U.S. conspiracy to topple his government after he visited Moscow on the eve of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, saying that the letter warned of dire consequences if he continued getting close to Russia. Washington has denied any involvement in his removal from government. In a statement on Wednesday, Khan tweeted "In their feverish attempts to implicate me in any case just to get me disqualified and jailed, this current assortment of incompetent crooks have again shot themselves in the foot. They have provided me with an opportunity to do a proper exposé of this whole Cypher drama." Khan is also facing charges of murder, graft, and sedition. Reuters Associated Press
Solomon Islands, Vanuatu Reportedly Considering Forming Militaries. Australian Defense Richard Marles announced on Wednesday that the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu are reportedly considering forming their own militaries. The idea was first mentioned on Monday by Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare after returning from a week-long trip to China. Only five out of the 18 members of the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) have a military. The prospect of the Solomon Islands in particular forming a military has been top of mind since the Pacific island nation signed a security pact with China last year, though both countries say the agreement supports domestic security and policing in the Solomon Islands, rejecting concerns over militarization of the region. Vanuatu has also moved down this path by signing a security treaty with Australia. Reuters
Kyrgyzstan Counters Reports of U.S. Sanctions. The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that U.S. officials are considering imposing sanctions on Kyrgyzstan over concerns about the Central Asian Republic’s role in helping Russia evade Western sanctions and procure high-tech items like Chinese drones. Kyrgyz officials responded by inferring that the country is not conducting these activities officially but also cannot monitor if it is being done unofficially, saying that Kyrgyzstan is a “free market economy with very limited government resources” and “cannot be reasonably expected to police every entrepreneur and approve every transaction." Kyrgyz officials added that they have yet to be informed about any potential U.S. action against Kyrgyz companies on the matter. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to the report by saying that Russia intends “to further develop bilateral relations with Kyrgyzstan, which we value very highly, as well as all formats of our joint integration.” Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Israeli Military Reservists Protest Judicial Reforms. Hundreds of Israeli reservists have joined mass protests in Tel Aviv against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government’s planned judicial reforms. The first amendments of the reform plan, which will lessen the power of Israel’s Supreme Court, are set to be ratified next Sunday and Monday. Protesting reservists, which include elite Israeli combat pilots and members of Special Forces units, have threatened to refuse their volunteer service if the government moves ahead with the judicial changes. Critics of the measure say the reform will undermine Israel’s democracy, while the government and its supporters say it will rein in activist judges encroaching on the political sphere. Military officials have expressed concern that protests by military personnel against the reform could compromise national security. Reuters Al Jazeera NBC News
Turkey and UAE Sign $50 Billion in Deals. The UAE and Turkey have signed several new deals estimated to be worth $50.7 billion. The deals were signed during Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Abu Dhabi as part of his tour through several Gulf Arab nations for investments and funds. The deals include an extradition accord, energy and natural resources development agreements, and pacts for space and defense cooperation. Additionally, the package will include a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that will finance up to $8.5 billion of Turkey earthquake relief bonds along with an MoU with Export Credit Bank of Turkiye in which the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund which will finance up to $3 billion in credit facilities to support Turkish exports. Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
NSTR
Cyber and Tech
Meta Offers New AI Language Model on Microsoft Azure Platform. Microsoft has announced the release of a new, free version of Meta’s AI language model that will be available to software developers using Microsoft’s Azure cloud-computing platform. The partnership between the two tech giants will open the AI model, Llama 2, to commercial users for the first time. The new model is “open source” software, which invites use and modification by the public. Meta CEO Mark Zuckerman said in a blog post that open source software drives innovation by making it available to more developers and also improves safety and security because “more people can scrutinize it to identify and fix potential issues.” Microsoft, which has invested heavily in the private AI language model produced by OpenAI, is demonstrating by incorporating Llama 2 in its Azure platform “a willingness to broaden beyond ChatGPT maker OpenAI as its AI platform of choice.” Microsoft rivals Amazon and Google are positioning themselves as “neutral platforms” that can accommodate a variety of generative AI models from different companies. Microsoft also announced plans for a $30 monthly per-person fee for businesses to access CoPilot, an AI-powered assistant for Microsoft 365. In addition, Qualcomm, the semiconductor and wireless technologies company, made public its plans to collaborate with Meta to incorporate Llama into AI-powered apps on laptops, phones, and headsets beginning in 2024. Wall Street Journal Bloomberg TheVerge VentureBeat MIT Technology Review
EU ‘Stress Test’ of TikTok Shows Platform Not ‘Fully Compliant’ with Content Rules. The EU’s “stress test” of TikTok on Monday revealed the social media platform is not yet “fully compliant” with community rules governing content. Thierry Breton, EU internal market commissioner, reported on the results of the test conducted at TikTok offices in Dublin, stating the more work is needed for the platform to meet the August 25 compliance deadline of the EU Digital Services Act. Breton cited TikTok’s scope and influence, especially among teenagers, adding “If its systems fail, the magnitude of the consequences can be dramatic.” Breton urged TikTok to “accelerate” efforts to be compliant, and said, “as of the end of August, we will be assessing whether real, tangible changes have materialized on the grounds.” Bloomberg
National Intelligence Office Lays Out New Strategy for Data Management, Exploitation. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) has released a three-year data strategy that calls for accelerated efforts by the intelligence community to develop capabilities for data collection, processing, and exploitation. “To date,” the document contends, “we have not significantly prioritized data as a strategic and operational [intelligence community] asset.” Maintaining the community’s advantages in decision-making and intelligence will require a stepped-up pace and scale of effort in data handling, analytics, and AI-enabled processes. The ODNI strategy outlines four goals, including ensuring through new services and tools that data is “human and AI-ready” and that intelligence officers are “fluent” in data operations. The stress on skill-building is evident in the document’s observation that “data acumen has to become a core skill for every member of the workforce—not just for data professionals. The workforce and supporting contractors need to know, understand, and value data utilization and sharing for mission value and insight.” The strategy also advocates collaboration with the private sector and academia. An overall goal is to reduce the time required to process and categorize data from days to minutes. Intelligence agencies also must determine how data will be disseminated, exploited, and disposed of “with consideration for its ethical and appropriate use, consistent with law and policy.” NextGov
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