4:00 PM ET, Wednesday, December 6, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:
THE TOP STORIES
Biden Appeals for Congress to Approve New Aid for Ukraine. President Joe Biden appealed to congressional Republicans to put aside “petty, partisan, angry politics” and approve new military aid for Ukraine, warning that if Russian President Vladimir Putin wins in Ukraine, he will move on to a NATO ally in a conflict that could have “American troops fighting Russian troops.” His comments came as the Senate prepares to vote on his $110.5 billion aid package for Ukraine and Israel, which some Republicans have said they will not support without stronger immigration and border security measures. Biden signaled that he is open to a “bipartisan compromise” on border security to get the package approved. He said any agreement would do “significantly more” on border issues, though he did not provide details and criticized Republicans for “playing chicken with our national security” with the demands. The White House warned earlier this week that the U.S. will run out of funds to aid Ukraine by the end of the year without congressional action. Reuters New York Times Wall Street Journal
Yellen says U.S. Would be 'Responsible for Ukraine's Defeat' if New Aid Not Approved. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the U.S. would be "responsible for Ukraine's defeat" if Congress failed to approve President Joe Biden’s funding request for Ukraine aid. Yellen told reporters in Mexico City that the funding was "utterly essential" for the Ukrainian government’s general budget and critical in maintaining support from the International Monetary Fund for Ukraine. Yellen added that U.S. funding for Ukraine was also supporting U.S. allies in Europe who are also backing Kyiv. Reuters
Biden Administration Wary to Retaliate Against Houthis for Red Sea Attacks. U.S. officials say senior Biden administration officials have decided that directly striking the Houthis in Yemen is not the best course of action for now, despite missile and drone attacks launched by the group in the Red Sea. The officials said that while military officers commanding U.S. forces in the Middle East have drafted plans to militarily respond to the Houthis, they are not actively pushing for those options. The officials added that the Pentagon has not briefed President Joe Biden on plans to strike Houthis or recommended that he approve them. While some current and former military officials have called for a stronger response to Houthi attacks, top Biden administration officials have assessed that the Houthis were likely attempting to target assets linked to Israel and not U.S. warships and other military assets, leading to their wariness about retaliatory attacks. This hesitation falls in line with the focus on containing violence in the region to Israel and Gaza and avoiding any regional escalation. Senior officials have also expressed concern that attacks on the Houthis could derail U.S. and U.N.-led efforts to broker another ceasefire between the militant group and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has reportedly called on Washington to show restraint in response to Houthi attacks. Politico
ANALYSIS- The U.S. Can Afford a Bigger Military. We Just Can’t Build It. The Wall Street Journal is out with analysis on the significant challenges the U.S. faces in being able to militarily compete with China since it lags behind Beijing’s superior industrial capacity. This gap was demonstrated in a war game conducted by The Center for Strategic and International Studies of a war between the U.S. and China over Taiwan. While the U.S. effectively defended Taiwan, it suffered significant military losses, including two aircraft carriers. China likewise suffered catastrophic losses but was able to rebuild its military quicker than the U.S., leading to a longer-term victory for Beijing. U.S. military production and delivery efforts suffer widespread delays and cost overruns for critical weapons such as anti tank and anti ship missiles. To close the gap with China’s rapid military expansion, the report argues that the U.S. should invest in building a larger military with more cost-effective methods. Possible solutions include paying contractors to maintain excess capacity, leveraging the production of allies, and adopting mass-production techniques. Wall Street Journal
Italy Tells China it is Leaving Belt and Road Initiative. Italy has officially told China that it is withdrawing from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Italy's participation in the program expires in March 2024, and government sources say Rome informed Beijing that it will not renew the accord. Italy joined the BRI in 2019, becoming the first and so far only major Western country to do so. The U.S. had warned Italy against joining the program, saying that it could give China access to sensitive technologies and vital infrastructure. When Italian Prime Minister Girogia Meloni took office last year, she said she would withdraw from the deal, arguing that it had provided no significant gains for Italy. A government source noted that despite the withdrawal, Italy still seeks “excellent relations” with China, highlighting other Group of Seven nations that have “closer relations” with Beijing despite never joining the BRI. China has not commented on the matter. Reuters
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
U.N. Chief Invokes Article 99 over Gaza Crisis. U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres submitted a letter to the U.N. Security Council invoking Article 99 of the U.N. Charter on the situation in Gaza. Article 99 states that “the Secretary-General may bring to the attention of the Security Council any matter which in his opinion may threaten the maintenance of international peace and security,” essentially allowing him to call a Security Council meeting on any topic he deems critical for international peace and security. It is widely seen as the U.N. chief’s most powerful diplomatic tool. The letter marks the first time Guterres has invoked Article 99 since becoming U.N. secretary-general in 2017. In the letter, he warns that there will be a “complete breakdown” of public order in Gaza as the humanitarian system completely collapses. He called on the Security Council and wider international community to prevent further escalation and pursue a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza. Al Jazeera U.N. News The Hill
Israeli Defense Minister Suggests Israel Could Open Second Front Against Hezbollah. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says the Israeli military could soon open a second front in the north to push Iran-backed Hezbollah back from the Lebanese border. Gallant said the government would not encourage residents evacuated from northern communities near the Lebanese border to return home before Hezbollah is driven back beyond the Litani River in southern Lebanon. Gallant said that Israel is aiming to push Hezbollah back across the border through diplomatic channels, but if they failed at that, Israel would “act with all the means at its disposal” utilizing its military to do so. His remarks come despite increasing pressure from the U.S. to rein in the war in Gaza. U.S. officials last month warned their Israeli counterparts not to consider launching an attack north of the Lebanese border to prevent a regional escalation of violence. Politico
Israeli Forces Battle Hamas in Southern Gaza, Netanyahu says Home of Hamas Leader Encircled. Israel continues to battle Hamas fighters in southern Gaza. Israel’s military says it is conducting “targeted raids” in central Khan Younis, southern Gaza’ biggest city, and that Israeli troops have killed terrorists and destroyed terrorist infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed that Israeli troops are encircling the house of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Khan Younis and asserted that “it’s only a matter of time before we get him,” though he did not say if Sinwar was present at his home. Palestinian civilians in Gaza say they are being pushed towards the southern town of Rafah near the border with Egypt amid the intensifying fighting. Reuters New York Times
Yemen's Houthis say they Launched Ballistic Missiles at Israel. Yemen's Houthis say they launched several ballistic missiles at multiple military facilities in the southern Israeli city of Eilat. The claim came after the USS Mason, a U.S. Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, reportedly shot down a drone that came from a Houthi-controlled area in Yemen that’s controlled by the Houthi group. There are no reported injuries or damage and it was not apparent what the drone’s target was. This incident marks the sixth time the U.S. Navy has shot down drones in the Red Sea since the war between Israel and Hamas began. The incident came after the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks against commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Zelensky Speaks with G7 Leaders, Agree to Russia Diamond Ban. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met virtually with Group of Seven (G7) leaders on Thursday to discuss support for Ukraine. Zelensky called for more Western aid, calling on the free world to “maintain its consolidation, maintain interaction, maintain support for those whose freedom is being attacked.” As part of efforts to cut Russian revenues, the G7 leaders agreed at the meeting to ban the import of non-industrial diamonds from Russia by January and Russian diamonds sold by third countries from March. The leaders also agreed to tighten restrictions on Russia’s use of the international financial system and pass more measures to better enforce the price cap on Russian oil. Reuters Financial Times France 24
Russia Claims Seizure of U.S. Bradley Fighting Vehicle from Ukraine. Russian television has shown footage of what it claims is a U.S.-built Bradley infantry fighting vehicle captured on the front line in Ukraine's Luhansk region. The vehicle was supposedly captured after it was immobilized by Russian forces and was abandoned by its Ukrainian operators. The presenter of the prime-time show on the main Channel 1 station suggested that the capture of a working Bradley would enable Russian forces to identify any vulnerabilities. The news segment featured interviews with unidentified masked members of two recovery crews. In the footage the vehicle can be seen riddled with bullet holes. Russian presenters said the holes had been made by Ukrainian drones attempting to destroy as much of the hi-tech equipment in the vehicle as they could. One member of the recovery team said the vehicle appeared to be an upgraded version of the Bradley with a more powerful engine. The recovery team also claimed that the vehicle had better night-vision and fire guidance systems than a standard Bradley. There has been no comment on the matter from Ukrainian officials at this time. Reuters
U.S. Charges Russian Soldiers with War Crimes Against an American in Ukraine. The U.S. Department of Justice charged four Russian soldiers with war crimes for allegedly torturing an American in Ukraine. The indictment claims the Russian soldiers violently abducted an American from his home in the Ukrainian village of Mylove. The soldiers allegedly beat and tortured the American in a Russian military compound and held him for 10 days in April 2022. Two of the defendants were commanding officers of the Russian Armed Forces, while the two others were lower-ranking members in the Russian army. The indictment says the American was not a combatant involved in the war and was a protected person under the Geneva Convention of 1949. Investigators traveled internationally in order to interview the victims' family. With information from the family and other related parties, they were able to identify the four defendants whose indictments were announced today. The four Russian soldiers have been charged with four counts, including unlawful confinement, conspiracy to commit war crimes, inhuman treatment and torture. The case marks the first time the U.S. government has prosecuted Russian troops over atrocities in Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The soldiers were charged under a 30-year-old statute that makes it a crime to commit torture or inhumane treatment during war. FBI Director Christopher Wray said that this is the first time the DOJ has charged individuals under the war crimes statute, though it’s not the first time the bureau has investigated war crimes and brought the responsible parties to justice. CNN New York Times Politico
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Australian Intelligence Chief Reveals Plans for Interoperable Intel ‘Cloud’. Andrew Shearer, Australia’s Director-General of National Intelligence, revealed this week that the Australian government is “working very hard” on a “top secret” intelligence cloud designed to be interoperable with U.S. and U.K. intelligence networks. Speaking at an event sponsored by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Shearer said the cloud capability will “transform” collaborative work among Australia’s intelligence services as well as with Washington and London. Shearer did not say when the new capability will be available, but he did note the American and British experience in developing their own intelligence clouds has influenced Australian plans and helped to confront issues and avoid “pitfalls.” Shearer added that “as we move into the world of artificial intelligence, there’s also a massive amount that we can learn and share.” Shearer’s comments on the intelligence cloud follow remarks by a U.S. defense official that the AUKUS partners will deploy “common artificial intelligence algorithms” on platforms like the P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft. BreakingDefense
Dragos To Provide Cybersecurity Tool for Free to Small Water, Gas, Electric Utilities. The Dragos cybersecurity firm has announced that it will provide free security software to small water, natural gas, and electric utilities in the wake of several recent cyberattacks targeting water and other critical infrastructure. The Dragos software will feature threat detection, vulnerability management, and threat intelligence and will be provided to utility companies with less than $100 million in annual revenues. Qualifying utilities also will gain membership in OT-CERT, an industry threat intelligence sharing network that Dragos operates. Dragos CEO Robert Lee said the company’s Community Defense Program is being launched in response to the widely held concern that “the small infrastructure providers just don’t have the resources to do the cybersecurity work that we would like, and it really comes down, usually, to economics.” Jennifer Lyn Walker, director of infrastructure cyber defense at the Water Information Sharing and Analysis Center, noted that the water sector lags behind electricity utilities that have long practiced cyber cooperation and refined cyber defenses through exercises like GridEx. Wall Street Journal
E.U. AI Act Wrestling with Provisions for Large Language Models, Biometrics. The E.U. is at a critical juncture this week as it seeks to resolve differences among member states over provisions of the community’s AI Act, which would provide the world’s most comprehensive regulatory framework for AI development and products. The disputes that threaten to delay the legislation center on biometric surveillance and the rules that will govern the development of large language models underlying generative AI tools like ChatGPT. Sources told Reuters that the talks that began on Wednesday are likely to continue into the early hours of Thursday with the possibility of a provisional agreement that leaves some details to be worked out. If a deal cannot be reached, the AI Act is likely to be set aside until after EU parliamentary elections next June. The Dutch digitalization minister, Alexandra van Huffelen, explained to Reuters that multiple stakeholders around the world are looking to the E.U. “to agree on a meaningful piece of legislation regarding AI, including GPAI (general purpose AI systems).” The advent of ChatGPT and other generative AI systems has introduced an unprecedented dimension to AI development and triggered concerns that, among other risks, the latest AI innovations will eliminate jobs, boost disinformation, and eventually develop into a “superintelligence” that exceeds human control. European officials working on the AI Act, like political authorities around the world, have been caught off-guard by these developments, leading to disagreement and uncertainty on how to proceed. Even if the AI Act passes, it likely would not be implemented for at least 18 months, with enforcement mechanisms still to be defined. Andrea Renda, a researcher with the Center for European Policy Studies, said “the jury is still out about whether you can regulate this technology or not. There’s a risk this E.U. text ends up being prehistorical.” Reuters New York Times Associated Press
Alphabet Introduces Gemini Multimodal AI System, New AI Chip. Alphabet, the parent company of Google, on Wednesday unveiled Gemini, its latest AI model with multimodal capabilities to process video, audio, and text. Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai wrote in a blog post that Gemini “represents one of the biggest science and engineering efforts we’ve undertaken as a company." A segment of Gemini has been incorporated into Bard, the company’s AI assistant, with plans for a more advanced Gemini version to be released through Bard in early 2024. Alphabet explained that three versions of Gemini are under development with each segment using a different amount of processing power. The top end of Gemini processing power will run in data centers while the smallest will be used in mobile devices. Eli Collins, an executive with the DeepMInd research unit that contributed to Gemini’s development, said the new system is not only more capable than earlier AI products, but “far more efficient,” even though it still requires substantial computing power to train. Alphabet also disclosed a new generation of custom-built AI chips, known as tensor processing units (TPUs). The Cloud TPU v5p can train large language models nearly three times as fast as prior generations. Reuters Wired Wall Street Journal
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia and Oceania
Chinese Warships Visit Cambodian Naval Base for Military Exercise. Chinese naval ships arrived at Cambodia’s Ream naval base, which Chinese companies helped build, for a military exercise. The ships, including the Wenshan, a Type 056A corvette, were seen at the base in photos posted by General Tea Seiha, Cambodia’s deputy prime minister and defense minister. They are the first foreign warships known to have visited the naval base. The U.S. has expressed concern that the facility could be used by the Chinese military. Cambodia has said offering Chinese troops exclusive access to the base would violate its constitution. However, the U.S. defense attache in Cambodia was denied full access to the base when he visited. South China Morning Post
China Space Authorities Warn of Challenge Posed by SpaceX. An article in state-owned China Space News warned that China’s aerospace industry must maintain “a deep sense of crisis” as Beijing’s goal to become a dominant space power by 2045 faces unprecedented challenges, especially from U.S. company SpaceX. The article said China’s main state-owned space contractor, China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) is “obviously lagging behind” SpaceX in development, research, and economic performance and called on Chinese space workers to work harder to close the gap. SpaceX is working to develop cheaper rockets that make space flight more affordable. Experts say the company is playing a key role in helping the U.S. maintain leadership in space. CASC and other Chinese aerospace companies are racing to compete, in part by making their own versions of SpaceX’s superheavy lift, fully-reusable Starship launch system and Starlink satellite constellation — the Long March 9 superheavy rocket and Guo Wang network. South China Morning Post
Nepal Arrests People Smugglers Accused of Illegally Recruiting for Russian Army. Nepal arrested a gang accused of smuggling people to force them to fight for Russia in Ukraine. An official said the gang illegally charged unemployed youths up to $9,000 and sent them to Russia on tourist visas. Most would be sent through the United Arab Emirates. They were then illegally coerced into being recruited into the Russian army. Earlier this week, Kathmandu urged Russia to stop the use of Nepali mercenaries for their war in Ukraine and to send any Nepali mercenaries serving in the Russian military back to Nepal. The move was prompted by the reported death of six Nepali citizens in Ukraine and the capture of one by Ukrainian forces. Al Jazeera RFE/RL
The Americas
Yellen Announces New Sanctions to Curb Fentanyl Trafficking. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced sanctions against 15 individuals and two Mexican companies linked to the Beltran Levya drug cartel as part of efforts to strengthen cooperation with Mexico to counter fentanyl trafficking. Yellen announced the sanctions during her trip to Mexico. The Treasury describes the Beltran Levya drug cartel as “one of the most powerful drug trafficking organizations in the world” and a major supplier of cocaine and fentanyl. Members of the cartel have been sanctioned in the past, but the latest measures address “middlemen” who trade non-export-controlled goods used in illicit drug proliferation, like pill presses and pharmaceuticals. Associated Press Reuters The Hill U.S. Department of the Treasury
Middle East
Amnesty Reports Iran Used Sexual Violence Against Protesters Arrested in 2022. Iranian authorities have used rape and sexual assault to punish or silence those arrested during the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests, Amnesty International said in a report. Amnesty documented 45 alleged cases of sexual violence perpetrated against men, women and children who were detained by Iranian authorities in protests that came in response to Amini’s death while in the custody of Iran’s morality police. The rights group said the actual number of victims may be much higher. In addition to the sexual violence, victims have also come forward regarding cruel and inhuman detention conditions. Many detainees allege that detention centers were overcrowded, had unsanitary conditions, a lack of bedding, and poor or no access to toilets or hygiene. France 24 Amnesty International
Iran Launches Animals in Capsule Into Space. Iran launched a capsule carrying live animals into space as part of efforts to prepare for manned space missions. Iranian state media reported that the “indigenous” capsule was successfully sent 80 miles into orbit and that it was carried by an Iranian-made Salman rocket, which was reportedly made by the aerospace wing of Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics. It is unclear what kind of animals were in the capsule. Al Jazeera
Europe
UK Announces New Sanctions Targeting 'Putin's War Machine'. Britain has announced 46 new sanctions targeting groups affiliated with Russia’s war in Ukraine. The new sanctions target individuals and entities in Belarus, China, Serbia, Turkey, the UAE and Uzbekistan accused of “supplying and funding (Russian President Vladimir) Putin's war machine," the UK's foreign office said. Among those sanctioned are three groups supporting the Wagner Group network and four vessels used by Russia to circumvent the Group of Seven’s price cap on Russian oil. The measures were announced as British Foreign Secretary David Cameron visited Washington. Cameron will hold talks with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken as well as Congressional leaders to discuss Ukraine, as well as the conflict in Gaza. France 24 Politico
Africa
Chad, Mauritania Pave Way to Dissolve Anti-Jihadist G5 Sahel Alliance. Chad and Mauritania, the last remaining members of the G5 Sahel group, have acknowledged the “sovereign decision” of Burkina Faso and Niger to leave the alliance on Saturday, following Mali. They added that necessary measures will be implemented, namely Article 20 of the group’s founding convention, which allows for the alliance to be dissolved at the request of at least three member states. The G5 was created in 2014 to counter jihadist groups. It agreed to deploy a joint anti-terror task force backed by France in 2017. The military juntas of Burkina Faso, Niger, and Mali have since said the group has failed to complete it anti-jihadist goals. They have also accused France of military overreach in their countries and called for the withdrawal of French troops from their territories. France 24
The data cutoff for this product was 3:00p.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes and Ryan Simons contributed to this report.
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