4:00 PM ET, Wednesday, December 13, 2023
Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world.
Here’s what’s happening now:
THE TOP STORIES
Tanker in Red Sea Attacked by Gunmen in Speedboat, Missiles. Maritime sources say the tanker Ardmore Encounter was fired on by gunmen in a speedboat and targeted by two missiles fired from Houthi-held territory in Yemen as it traveled near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Wednesday. Ardmore Shipping Corp., which owns and operates the Marshall Islands-flagged ship, said there were no casualties or damage from the attack and no gunmen were able to board the tanker. The ship was carrying jet fuel made in a joint operation between Shell and India’s national oil company. Ardmore Shipping said the fuel was headed either for the Netherlands or Sweden. It is the first time an energy shipment near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has been attacked since the Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7. A second commercial vessel was reportedly approached by the speedboat but was not attacked. The Houthis have not acknowledged the attacks. Separately, the American destroyer U.S.S. Mason downed a suspected Houthi drone launched in its direction while responding to reports of attacks on a commercial vessel. Reuters Washington Post
NATO Increases Military Budget by 12%. NATO announced on Wednesday that it is increasing its military budget for 2024 by 12% to 2.03 billion euros. The military spending covers costs for NATO Command Structure headquarters and missions around the world. The alliance is also increasing its civil budget — which funds personnel, operating costs, NATO headquarters operations, and international staff — by 18.2% to 438.1 million euros. NATO said the increase in common funding will help the alliance address shared security challenges. Reuters
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Israel Reports Heaviest Combat Losses in Gaza Since October. The Israeli army reports that 10 of its soldiers were killed in Gaza on Tuesday, marking Israel’s worst reported combat losses in more than a month. A full colonel commanding a forward base and a lieutenant-colonel commanding a regiment were among those killed. The Israeli military said most of the troops were killed in an ambush in the Shejaiya district in Gaza City. It was the worst one-day loss for Israel’s military since 15 of its soldiers were killed on October 31. Hamas said the incident showed that Israel cannot take Gaza. Hamas Chief Ismail Haniyeh later said in a televised address that any future in Gaza without Hamas is a “delusion.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remained defiant in the mission to eliminate Hamas, telling Israeli troops in Gaza over the radio that despite “great pain” and “international pressures,” Hamas will be destroyed and “nothing will stop us.” Reuters BBC
U.S., Britain Impose Additional Sanctions Targeting Hamas. The U.S. and Britain imposed additional sanctions on individuals linked to Hamas. The U.S. Treasury Department said the sanctions target eight Hamas officials that advance the group’s interests and manage its finances. Several targeted officials are based in Turkey, including key financial operatives for the group. Britain’s foreign office said the British sanctions targeted seven additional people, including Hamas co-founder Mahmoud Zahar and Ali Baraka, the group’s head of external relations, who was also sanctioned by the U.S. The U.K. sanctions also target a leader of the Palestinian Islamic JIhad group and individuals in Lebanon and Algeria linked to Hamas. Hamas said the sanctions were unjustified and based on false allegations. Reuters U.S. Department of the Treasury The Hill
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Nordic Nations Reiterate Support for Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to Norway’s capital of Oslo on Wednesday to meet representatives of the five Nordic nations, who vowed support for Kyiv “for as long as it takes” to repel Russian forces. The Nordic countries — which are all NATO members except Sweden, which has applied to join the alliance — jointly called for an immediate and unconditional withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory at the meeting. Zelensky emphasized at the meeting that Ukraine needs stronger air defenses, citing the missile attacks against Kyiv this week. Zelensky’s trip to Oslo comes after a visit to Washington to appeal for more U.S. aid. Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Iceland have collectively sent around 11 billion euros in aid to Ukraine since Russia started its invasion. Denmark is set to consider a new 1 billion euro support package this week. Reuters France 24 Kyiv Independent
Zelensky says Hungary Has No Reason to Block Ukraine’s E.U. Membership. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday that Hungary has no reason to block Ukraine’s E.U. membership. Speaking in Oslo, Zelensky said he asked Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for a reason to block Ukrainian membership in the bloc when they briefly met in Argentina on Sunday and that he is “(still) waiting for an answer.” Most E.U. members want to open talks on Ukraine’s accession and approve new aid for Kyiv at a summit this week. Both moves are being blocked by Hungary, which is also seeking the release of E.U. funds for Budapest that were frozen over rule of law and corruption concerns. Reuters
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Russian Group Linked to Military Intelligence Claims Attack on Ukraine Mobile Network. Solntsepyok, a hacktivist group reportedly linked to Russian military intelligence (GRU), has claimed responsibility for the cyberattack that disrupted Ukraine’s largest mobile network, Kyivstar. Tuesday’s cyberattack interrupted telecommunications services, damaged network infrastructure, and took air raid systems offline in parts of Ukraine. The Solntsepyok group claimed on its Telegram channel that it carried out the attack, publishing screenshots purportedly confirming the hacktivists' breach of Kyivstar systems. Russia has denied any connection with the cyberattacks. Ukraine’s communications and information department, SSSCIP, said that it is investigating the incident in collaboration with the country’s domestic intelligence agency, the SBU. The SSSCIP attributed the attack to a Russian group “associated with the main directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," the GRU. The SSSCIP previously identified Solntsepyok as a front for the Sandworm group, which also has been linked to the GRU. Solntsepyok’s Telegram post offered thanks to unidentified “concerned colleagues” at Kyivstar, which may be connected to the SBU announcement Tuesday that it has opened a treason investigation in the wake of the cyberattack. The hacktivist post said it launched the attack on Kyivstar "because the company provides communications to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as state bodies and Ukraine's security forces.” The attack has been described as one of the largest since Russia’s invasion. Solntsepyok claimed it destroyed more than 10,000 computers and 4,000 servers, including its cloud storage and backup systems. Kyivstar said those claims were "fake" and noted the company is in the process of restoring some of its services. Reuters
UK Parliament Report Says Government Neglect Risks ‘Catastrophic’ Ransomware Attack. A UK Parliament national security committee has issued a report warning of a “high risk” of a “catastrophic ransomware attack” due to the government’s inattention to the ransomware threat. The report spotlights former Home Secretary Suella Braverman as demonstrating “no interest in the topic” even though her department described itself as the lead government agency on the issue. The report by the Joint Committee on the National Security Strategy (JCNSS) found that “that the Home Office’s public output on cyber security and ransomware has been almost nonexistent” and was overshadowed by the department’s “focus on small boats and illegal migration.” The JCNSS report recommends that government responsibility for ransomware policies be transferred to the Cabinet Office in collaboration with the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) and the National Crime Agency (NCA). The JCNSS chair commented that in the event of a devastating ransomware attack “the failure to rise to meet this challenge will rightly be seen as an inexcusable strategic failure.” Dame Margaret Beckett also observed that “the UK has the dubious distinction of being one of the world’s most cyber-attacked nations.” The committee assessment recommended increased investment in the NCSC “to establish an enhanced and dedicated local authority cyber resilience programme, including intensive support for local exercising and on securing council supply chains.” The JCNSS also called for more resources for the NCA to enable it “to pursue a more aggressive approach to infiltrating and disrupting ransomware operators.” The Record
GAO Says Absence of Definitive Guidance Undermining Consistent Federal AI Use. A report issued Tuesday by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) noted the ambitious scope to expand AI solutions across Federal departments and agencies, but said the government is “years behind” in policies to guide the acquisition and use of the technology. The absence of a government-wide standard for AI purchases could threaten U.S. security, according to the GAO. The rapid adoption of AI across Federal agencies demonstrates the need and usefulness of the technology to address important requirements, but the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has not yet finalized a draft policy outlining how agencies should acquire and employ AI applications. The GAO report noted that the lack of guidance from the OMB “has contributed to agencies not fully implementing fundamental practices in managing AI.” Inconsistencies in Federal adoption of the technology, the GAO report observed, will likely persist in the absence of OMB guidance. This situation, the report concluded, “will not align with key practices or be beneficial to the welfare and security of the American public.” The GAO report included a comprehensive list of AI-related requirements that Congress or the White House has imposed on federal agencies since 2019. In addition to faulting OMB for failing to come up with a government-wide plan for AI purchases, GAO noted flaws in other agencies’ AI strategies. The Office of Personnel Management, for example, had not completed a required forecast of AI-related roles and vacancies the federal government may need to fill in the next five years. Ten other departments lacked required plans for updating AI use cases over time, which could hinder the public’s understanding how of the government uses AI. CNN NextGov FedScoop
Space Monitoring Firm Notes Russian, Chinese Satellite Missions Coincide with U.S. Holidays. LeoLabs, a space monitoring firm, says it has monitored a trend in which Russia and China appear to time potentially threatening on-orbit operations to occur during U.S. holiday seasons. Ed Lu, LeoLabs CTO and co-founder, told BreakingDefense that the correspondence between adversarial on-orbit operations and holiday-related downtimes in the U.S. “may be on purpose. It probably is.” The most recent incident occurred on November 23 – Thanksgiving – when a Russian satellite in low-earth-orbit spun off two smaller satellites that performed coordinated operations. The satellite “spawning” mission was similar to a Russian operation in November 2022 when a Cosmos 2565 electronic reconnaissance satellite released a smaller satellite on December 2, which itself released an even smaller satellite on Christmas Eve. Chinese satellite operations followed a similar pattern in late November 2022 when the Test Spacecraft 2 spaceplane conducted a docking maneuver with a satellite it released. LeoLabs said while the exact purpose of the multi-satellite release operations is not known, they could be “a method of deploying co-orbital ASATs [anti-satellite weapons] or covert payloads that may pose a risk to sensitive or classified satellites.” LeoLabs analyst Owen Marshall said the particular timing of the satellite operations could allow some maneuvers to go undetected, creating a “warfighting advantage” for adversaries. BreakingDefense
U.S. Navy Secretary Highlights U.S., Chinese Military Drone, EW Strategies. Carlos Del Toro, the U.S. Secretary of the Navy, says Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought about “a new era of war” that has elevated the role and impact of drones and electronic warfare (EW). Del Toro said the Ukraine conflict has reinforced U.S. and allies’ focus on “developing and maintaining a ready, interoperable combat power that is capable of fighting in contested environments, including the electromagnetic spectrum.” Del Toro’s remarks come as the Pentagon commits billions of dollars to developing drones, EW, and hybrid systems. Referring to the cat-and-mouse game that characterizes EW, Del Toro said spectrum operations against adversaries are “a constant series of moves and countermoves to develop strategic, operational and tactical advantages in the battlespace.” Del Toro referred, in particular, to China’s military strategy for EW technologies and deployment, noting that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has embarked on programs “to develop, test, field, and integrate space, counter-space, cyber, electronic, and information warfare capabilities, posing potential challenges to how we operate across the spectrum.” DefenseNews BreakingDefense
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia and Oceania
China, Vietnam Agree to Strengthen Security Relations, China and Vietnam have agreed to increase cooperation on security matters as part of efforts to build a “shared future.” The agreement came as Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded a visit to Hanoi, where both sides pledged to establish more hotlines on maritime disputes, strengthen defense industry ties, and accelerate intelligence exchanges. They also signed several cooperation pacts on areas including rail links and telecommunications and “digital data cooperation.” No deal on rare earths was announced, though both sides said they agreed to work on ways to cooperate on critical minerals. China and Vietnam, which have had a long history of conflict, said the move to strengthen ties is “strategic” and aims to prevent a “color revolution” from hostile forces. Beijing has pushed hard to upgrade ties with Vietnam after it elevated relations with the U.S. in September to the highest tier, on the same level as China. Reuters South China Morning Post
South Korean Defense Minister Warns North Korea of ‘Hell Destruction.’ South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik on Wednesday warned North Korea that Seoul will unleash “a hell of destruction” in retaliation for any “reckless actions that harm peace.” His comments came during a meeting of top military commanders to discuss ways South Korea is bolstering its military capabilities, including by launching satellites, improving soldiers’ welfare, and “dramatically” strengthening the “three-axis” defense system to counter North Korean threats. Shin recently visited South Korea’s missile command, which he said is tasked with “lethally striking the heart and head of the enemy” in a conflict. Shin’s remarks came after North Korea said it launched a military spy satellite into orbit last month, which fractured an inter-Korean military agreement aimed at de-escalating tensions on the Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas. The comments also come ahead of nuclear deterrence talks between South Korea and the U.S. on Friday. Barron’s Reuters
Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Stepping Down. Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu is resigning from his position after Taiwan’s presidential election in January, regardless of whether his party wins or loses. Wu has been in the position for nearly six years and described it as “probably the most difficult foreign minister job in the world.” Wu has been critical of China’s aggressive policy towards Taiwan and has strongly appealed to the island’s partners for support. Politico Reuters Wall Street Journal
Europe
British Defense Ministry Fined for Afghan Data Breach During Taliban Takeover. Britain’s data regulator, the Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO), said it fined Britain’s Ministry of Defense 350,000 pounds over email breaches that exposed the information of 265 Afghans seeking relocation in Britain after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. The ICO said the breaches occurred because the ministry did not have proper operating procedures in place to ensure the security of group emails sent to Afghan nationals who worked for the British government. The ministry has apologized for the issue and said it will provide details on efforts it will take to address the ICO’s concerns. Reuters Forbes Defense Post
Armenia, Azerbaijan Exchange Prisoners. Armenia and Azerbaijan exchanged prisoners-of-war at their border on Wednesday. Azerbaijan released 31 Armenian military personnel captured in 2020-2023 and one Armenian serviceman captured in Nagorno-Karabakh in September. Armenia handed over two Azerbaijani soldiers captured in April 2023. Both sides announced the prisoner exchange last week as part of efforts to start normalizing relations following Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh in September. Associated Press Reuters
Africa
U.S. Seeks to Resume Security, Development Cooperation with Niger. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee said she met the top ministers of Niger’s CNSP ruling military council and called on them for a swift transition back to democratic rule, as well as the U.S.’s intention to resume security and development cooperation “in phases” as democracy is restored. Phee added that she urged Niger’s junta to be open to high-level negotiations with the West African bloc ECOWAS and reach a “satisfactory resolution” on the status of former President Mohamed Bazoum. Niger was a key ally in the fight against Islamist insurgents in West Africa’s Sahel region. After Niger’s military coup, Niger’s junta forced the withdrawal of French troops and ended security pacts with the E.U. However, while the U.S. joined European partners in cutting aid to Niger, the U.S. did not withdraw troops, leaving the opportunity for future cooperation. Reuters
The data cutoff for this product was 3:00p.m. E.T.
Ethan Masucol and Ken Hughes contributed to this report.
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