6:00 PM ET, Wednesday, August 30, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
U.S. Raises Alarm Over Suspected Russia, North Korea Arms Talks. Newly released U.S. intelligence suggests that Russia and North Korea are “actively advancing” talks on a potential arms deal that would have Pyongyang supply ammunition, including artillery munitions, to Moscow for use in Ukraine. John Kirby, National Security Council strategic communications coordinator, disclosed the intelligence on Wednesday as part of efforts to publicize Russian efforts to evade Western sanctions and support its war in Ukraine. Kirby highlighted intelligence regarding Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s visit to North Korea last month, a subsequent second delegation of Russian officials that visited Pyongyang, and letters exchanged between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un “pledging to increase bilateral cooperation” as signs that arms negotiations are progressing. He added that “high level discussions may continue in coming months.” Russia and North Korea did not comment on the new intelligence, though Pyongyang has previously denied it is seeking an arms deal with Moscow. The U.S. accused North Korea of sending infantry rockets and missiles to Russia last year and sanctioned three entities it accused of facilitating arms deals between North Korea and Russia earlier this month. Reuters Associated Press CNN
U.S. Approves JASSM-ER Missile Sale to Japan. The U.S. State Department approved the potential sale of Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles with Extended Range (JASSM-ER) to Japan for $104 million. The deal will include up to fifty AGM-158B/B-2 JASSMs, along with JASSM anti-jam GPS receivers and related equipment. The missiles will be employed on Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) fighter aircraft, including F-15J jets. The Pentagon said the proposed sale will improve Japan’s stand-off defense capabilities through advanced, long-range strike systems. Defense News US DoD DSCA
Defense Innovation Unit Official Connecting INDOPACOM to Commercial Sector. Commander of USINDOPACOM, Admiral John Aquilino announced that a Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) embed will serve as the Chief Technology Officer for the command’s new Joint Mission Accelerator Directorate and will help establish connections with the commercial sector. The DIU embed serves as the Pentagon’s liaison to the private sector. DIU Director Doug Beck described the official as a “dual-fluency talent” who delivers “concrete commercial solutions to DoD problems.” Beck added that the DIU has crafted a plan for the expanded role that is awaiting review by Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin. Defense News
Western Europe
EU Preparing Niger Sanctions. EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell said Wednesday that the EU is developing its legal framework to impose sanctions on Niger junta leaders. Borrell added that the EU aims to pass similar sanctions imposed by ECOWAS. However, when asked if the EU would provide financial support to ECOWAS if the group decided to intervene militarily in Niger, he said that the EU would consider the request rather than automatically approve the measure. The EU has already implemented several economic measures in response to the coup, including the immediate stop of EU financial support and cooperation regarding security in Niger. The legal framework would give the EU basis to impose sanctions on specific individuals and organizations considered responsible for the coup. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Six Ukrainian Pilots Killed Near Bakhmut. A spokesperson for Ukraine’s Igor Sikorsky 18th Separate Army Aviation Brigade announced that six of its pilots were killed during a combat mission near Bakhmut on Tuesday. The spokesperson said all six pilots held the rank of officer and that further details of the mission will not be disclosed due to security reasons. CNN
Russia Says Cruise Missile Intercepted Over Crimea, Drones Downed Over Bryansk. Russian-appointed officials in Crimea said Russian air defenses shot down a Ukrainian cruise missile over eastern Crimea. They said debris from the missile landed in a field of grass and did not provide further details. Meanwhile, Bryansk Governor Aleksandr Bogomaz said two drones were shot down in the western Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine, and that there were no casualties or damage. CNN
Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Says Drone Attacks Show War ‘Increasingly Moving’ to Russia. Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said Wednesday that recent drone attacks in Russia show that the war is “increasingly moving to Russia’s territory.” He highlighted drone attacks in the Pskov region that damaged military aircraft and grounded flights, saying that further similar incidents “cannot be stopped.” Podolyak did not say Ukraine was responsible for the attacks, maintaining that Kyiv "strictly adheres to the obligation not to use the weapons of its partners to strike Russian territory.” However, he added that calls to avoid strikes on Russian soil are “absurd.” His comments came after Russia reported drone attacks across six regions, which Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called “continued terrorist activity of the Kyiv regime.” CNN
Ukrainian Insurgent Group Claims Responsibility for Attack in Russian-Occupied Kherson. A Ukrainian insurgent group called Atesh claimed it blew up the headquarters of the pro-Moscow United Russia Party in the Russian-occupied city of Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson region. Atesh said its attack killed three Russian soldiers, which pro-Russian officials denied, and burned all documents meant to be used for elections scheduled for September 8-10 in occupied territory. The mayor of Nova Kakhovka called the incident a “terrorist attack.” CNN
Hungary’s Orbán Says Ukraine Has No Chance in Winning War. Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán said on Tuesday that he believes it is “impossible” for Ukraine to win the war against Russia. Speaking in an interview with American TV host Tucker Carlson, Orbán said that manpower is the most important factor, arguing that the Ukrainians “will run out earlier … of soldiers than the Russians. What finally will count is boots on the ground and the Russians are far stronger.” Orbán added that the West should make a “deal” with Russia to end the war in which Ukraine’s security and sovereignty is secured, “but not membership in NATO,” which he said is not a “realistic proposal” to pursue. He added that the return of Crimea to Ukraine, which is one of Kyiv’s goals, is “totally unrealistic.” Orbán also said former President Donald Trump is the best hope for peace since he had “the best foreign policy” in recent decades, noting his engagement with North Korea, Russia and China. Orbán went as far as saying “Trump is the man who can save the Western world” and all of humanity. A Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesperson responded to his comments by saying “Ukraine does not trade its territories or its sovereignty.” Bloomberg Politico
Poland Legionnaires’ Disease Outbreak Continues. An ongoing Legionnaires’ disease outbreak in southeastern Poland has now killed 16 people and infected another 140. The outbreak is concentrated in Rzeszow city, which is around 50 miles from the Ukrainian border and is a key transit hub for military support flowing to Kyiv. Around 10,000 U.S. troops are stationed in the region. Laboratory tests confirmed the presence of Legionnaires’ disease germs in Rzeszow’s municipal water system. Experts say high temperatures in a recent heat wave may have spread the germ in rarely used plumbing. Polish authorities are also investigating potential tampering with the city’s water supply. Associated Press New York Times
Asia and Oceania
North Korea Conducts Missile Launches. South Korea’s military reports that North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles in the sea on Wednesday, hours after the U.S. deployed B-1B bombers for separate air drills with South Korea and Japan. Tokyo said it also observed the launch of at least one missile that landed outside of Japan’s exclusive economic zone. The launches may have been retaliation to the Ulchi Freedom Shield drills between South Korea and the U.S., which are about to conclude. The launches also came after a trilateral summit between the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, during which they agreed to share North Korean missile warning data in real time. Reuters Associated Press
British Foreign Secretary Cleverly Visits China. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly visited Beijing on Wednesday in a bid to reset Sino-British relations after years of tensions. Cleverly met Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who promised better ties if relations are based on “mutual respect” and “eliminate all unnecessary interference and obstacles.” Cleverly responded by calling for open channels of communication and emphasized the need for an eventual meeting between British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Chinese President Xi Jinping, who may engage at the upcoming G20 summit in India next month. The British foreign ministry said Cleverly also used the trip to raise issues like Beijing’s National Security Law in Hong Kong, sanctions on British lawmakers, human rights, and tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Despite Cleverly’s “pragmatic” trip to find common ground despite disagreements, some British lawmakers are calling for tougher action on China. Reuters BBC Financial Times South China Morning Post Bloomberg Associated Press
Palau, U.S. Sign Agreement on Maritime Enforcement. The U.S. Coast Guard said Tuesday that the United States signed a new agreement with Palau which authorizes American ships to enforce maritime regulations within Palau’s exclusive economic zone. A Coast Guard statement said that the agreement stipulates that U.S. Coast Guard ships can enforce regulations unilaterally and without a Palauan officer present. This agreement follows pleas from Palau’s President, Surangel S. Whipps Jr. to help deter Beijing’s “unwanted activities” in its waters, such as unregulated fishing and other “questionable maneuvers.” Associated Press
Top Chinese General Calls for ‘Quality’ Weaponry. Chinese General Zhang Youxia, first vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC), is calling for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s procurement and development of arms to improve the “quality of our weaponry” and modernize the force’s capabilities. Speaking at a meeting of military and defense officials in Beijing earlier this week, he said quality weaponry will help China confront the “arduous and complex situation” it now faces, the PLA Daily reported. Zhang Kejian, director of the State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense, which helps the development of military and scientific technologies, echoed You’s remarks, saying the PLA must “accurately and precisely, provide quality supplies that can meet our needs in any real battles and struggles.” The meeting came a month after a reshuffle of the PLA’s Rocket Force, which plays a key role in China’s nuclear deterrence strategy, as part of anti-corruption efforts. Experts say the comments on “quality” may refer to the anti-graft drive now focused on the military. South China Morning Post
India Asks U.S. to Release Assets of Diamond Firms With Suspected Links to Russian Entity. India is asking the U.S. to release $26 million owned by Indian diamond firms that were frozen due to their alleged links to sanctioned Russian state-owned diamond major Alrosa. The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) froze the funds earlier this year in the first known measure against Indian businesses since the start of the Ukraine war. The Indian firms hit by the freeze say payments were meant for non-sanctioned Russian entities or were for orders filed before Alrosa was sanctioned in April last year. Alrosa is the largest producer of rough diamonds and INdia has the world’s largest diamond processing capacity. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Eastern Syria Clashes Between SDF, Tribesmen Kill Several. Reported clashes between the U.S.-backed, Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Arab tribal fighters in eastern Syria killed several people. The fighting first started on Monday when the SDF detained the commander of the Deir Az Zor Military Council, which was previously aligned with the SDF during its fight against ISIL in Syria, at a meeting he was invited to in the northeastern city of Hassakeh. Activists and pro-government media say fighting since then has killed at least 10 Arab tribesmen, as well as several SDF fighters and civilians in the villages of Hrejieh and Breeha. A joint statement by the SDF and Military Council said the commander and four other leaders were dismissed for several crimes, including drug trafficking. Experts say the confrontation raises concerns of more divisions between Kurdish and Arab fighters in eastern Syria. Arab groups have argued SDF is encroaching on their land and seeking to erase the region’s Arab identity. Al Jazeera
Sub Saharan Africa
Gabon Officers Declare Military Coup, Appoint New Leader. Gabon’s military officers who seized power in a coup against President Ali Bongo have selected General Brice Oligui Nguema, former head of the presidential guard, to lead the transition. They added that they have since placed Bongo under house arrest. Bongo, who was elected to a third-term in a disputed election on Saturday, released a video from detention in his residence calling on foreign allies to speak out on his behalf, adding that he did not know what was happening. The coup is the eight in West and Central Africa since 2020 and came weeks after a coup in Niger. ECOWAS chair Nigerian President Bola Tinubu described the coups as a “contagion of autocracy” spreading across Africa, adding that the bloc is working on a response to Gabon. France, which has about 350 troops in Gabon and has manganese and oil operations in the country, condemned the coup and reiterated its commitment to free and transparent elections. Reuters
Russia Calls for End to UN Security Council’s Mali Sanctions, Monitoring. Russia is calling on the United Nations Security Council to end independent monitoring of targeted U.N. sanctions on Mali immediately. Russia has also called to completely abolish the sanctions placed on Mali by August 2024. Russia put forward the draft resolution rivaling a text by France and the United Arab Emirates calling for the extension of sanctions and independent monitoring for another year, with openness to review the measures. The Security Council will vote on both draft resolutions later on Wednesday. The developments come after the council voted in June to end the decade-long UN peacekeeping mission in Mali. The U.S. has accused Russia of influencing Mali’s military junta into asking for the withdrawal of the peacekeeping force. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
UK Cyber Security Agency Issues Warning on Chatbot Use in Business Processes. Britain’s cybersecurity agency warned Wednesday that AI chatbots incorporated into business systems could pose security risks as research indicates the software devices “can be tricked” into carrying out harmful actions. The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) posted cautionary notes indicating that experts have not yet mastered potential security problems linked to chatbot algorithms. As more businesses employ chatbots for search functions as well as customer service and sales contacts, the NCSC said risks increase if these devices are integrated into other organizational business processes. Researchers have discovered ways to subvert chatbots through rogue commands or exceeding built-in safeguards. Using what is known as a “prompt injection” attack, the NCSC said “an LLM (large language model) inherently cannot distinguish between an instruction and data provided to help complete the instruction.” The NCSC urged businesses to approach applications using LLM’s "in the same way they would be if they were using a product or code library that was in beta." Reuters The Record
Government, Corporate Credentials Exposed on National Safety Council Website. The National Safety Council (NSC), a U.S. workplace safety nonprofit, has inadvertently exposed passwords and emails of member organizations, including U.S. government departments and large corporations. The NSC’s website was vulnerable to cyberattacks for five months, during which access to web directories containing thousands of credentials was possible. NASA, the FBI, and the Pentagon were among the government entities whose credentials were exposed. Multinational corporations, including Shell, IBM, Pfizer, and Toyota, were among the estimated 2,000 corporations with leaked credentials. As Cybernews researchers noted, leaked credentials could be used in credential stuffing attacks involving efforts to log into company Internet-connected tools such as VPN portals or corporate emails. Credentials also could be used to gain an entry point into corporate networks for the purpose of deploying ransomware or extracting internal documents. Cybernews reports that it contacted the NSC, which has fixed the issue. Cybernews
‘Google Next’ Summit Announces AI Watermark Capability, Other AI Innovations. Product and service announcements at the Google Next conference on Tuesday included an invisible watermark to identify AI-generated images as well as a new generative AI model, Genesis, and custom AI chips. The Genesis platform is described as a direct competitor to GPT-4, and according to Google features computing power five times greater than its rival. The Google rollout also included a tool called SynthID that can watermark an AI-generated image so that it is imperceptible to the eye but easily detected by a dedicated AI tool. The watermarking technology resists tampering, thereby contributing to efforts to detect and stop the spread of fake images and disinformation. The company also released a new chip tailored for generative AI and large language model processing. The new version, TPU v5e, is a tensor-processing unit capable of training LLM’s, but not as powerful as the flagship fifth AI generation chip to be released later. Google reports that it has combined TPU v5e chips into batches of 256 to create what it describes as a "supercomputer." This provides cloud customers with the option of connecting several pods together in order to tackle more complex computing problems. Cybernews Washington Post The Verge MIT Technology Review
University of Michigan Restores Campus Internet Access after Cyberattack. Internet service at University of Michigan (UM) campuses was restored on Wednesday following a weekend cyber attack although the UM CIO warned users to “expect some issues with select U-M systems and services in the short term.” CIO Ravi Pendse said he expects remediation efforts to be resolved “over the next several days.” The university shut down Internet access and many online services after detecting a “significant security concern” on Sunday, just before the beginning of fall classes. Sunday’s incident follows a similar disruption earlier this year when UM was one of many organizations worldwide to suffer data breach connected with the MOVEit file-transfer application. K-12 schools, colleges, and universities have been favorite targets of ransomware gangs as school years begin and end, when user demand for Internet access and services is at its peak. EdScoop The Record
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