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6:00 PM ET, Wednesday, August 16, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

The Americas

Former National Security Officials Send Letter to Congress Urging Action on China Investments.  A group of 21 former national security officials have sent a letter to Congress urging U.S. lawmakers to support President Joe Biden’s recent executive order (EO) that aims to restrict Chinese access to U.S. investment capital.  The group, which includes the former deputy national security advisor for the Trump administration Matt Pottinger and former undersecretary of defense for policy Colin Kahl, called Biden’s EO “a positive step in the overdue process” of restricting Beijing’s access to U.S. capital.  The group urged Congress to treat investment transparency “among your top foreign policy objectives.”  The order allows the Treasury Department to restrict or forbid US investment in Chinese entities in three main areas: semiconductors, quantum technology and artificial intelligence.  Reuters

U.S. Sanctions Entities Allegedly Linked to Russian, North Korean Arms Deals.  The U.S. on Wednesday sanctioned three entities accused of facilitating arms deals between Russia and North Korea.  The measures target Limited Liability Company Verus, Defense Engineering Limited Liability Partnership and Versor S.R.O.  The president of Verdot Slovak national Ashot Mkrtychev, who is already sanctioned and is accused of negotiating between Russian and North Korean officials to organize the transfer of over two dozen kinds of weapons and ammunitions to Moscow in exchange for the supply of goods to Pyongyang.  The sanctions are part of U.S. efforts to target those supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine.  Moscow has increasingly been forced to turn to North Korea and other allies to sustain its military for the war.  Reuters 

Americans Back Chinese Tariffs, U.S. Military Preparation, Poll Shows.  A new Reuters/Ipsos survey shows that a bipartisan majority of Americans favor greater tariffs on Chinese goods and stronger military preparedness to address threats from China.  According to the poll, 66% of respondents said that they were more likely to back a 2024 presidential candidate that “supports additional tariffs on Chinese imports.”  Another 66% (58% Democrats and 81% Republicans) said that they agreed that the U.S. “needs to do more to prepare for military threats from China.”  Additionally, the poll revealed that just 38% of Americans support the possible deployment of American troops to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion. The survey comes amid heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing.  Reuters

U.S., Allies Hold Pacific Evacuation Drills.  The U.S. Air Force held a two-week drill last month aimed at practicing the evacuation of thousands of casualties from the Pacific, which observers see as a response to rising tensions with China.  The drill, called Mobility Guardian 23, took place “across the Indo-Pacific” and involved medical personnel from the U.S. and six allies including Australia and Japan.  The drills aimed to demonstrate the integration of aeromedical operations “using existing theater airflow.”  The U.S. contributed a C-130 Hercules cargo plane to move dozens of patients and tested a newly developed evacuation guideline that reorganizes personnel into small medical crews.  Air Mobility Command said the test successfully proved patient care could be conducted “without impeding force flow.”  South China Morning Post

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukrainian General Acknowledges Difficulties in Northeastern City.  Oleksander Syrskyi, commander of the Ukrainian land forces, on Wednesday acknowledged some complications concerning defenses surrounding the city of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region. Syrskyi said on Telegram that he had spent most of the day working on the complex environment surrounding Kupyansk. He described the situation on the ground by saying “the enemy is trying to break through the defense of our troops with assault units, staffed mainly by prisoners, every day, in different directions, with the aim of blocking and then capturing Kupyansk.”  On Tuesday, Ukraine’s military said that it had reinforced its positions within the city.  This comes as Ukraine ordered the mandatory evacuation of the city and its surrounding areas as Russia intensified its shelling in the region and claimed to have captured Ukrainian positions near the city. Russia also claimed to make small gains in the area on Wednesday.  CNN

Russian Drone Strikes Hit Danube River Port.  Russian drone strikes hit the Ukrainian port of Reni on the Danube River in the southern Odesa region on Wednesday.  Regional officials and the Ukrainian military said the attack targeted port and grain infrastructure and agricultural machinery in the area.  There were no reported casualties.  Ukrainian presidential advisor Andriy Yermak described the strike as the latest effort by Russia to “‘fight’ with food.”  Separately, Ukraine’s Air Force said it destroyed 13 Iranian-made Shahed drones launched by Russia over the Odesa and neighboring Mykolaiv region.  CNN 

Russia Claims to Thwart Cross-Border Sabotage Attack from Ukraine.  Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) said that Russian forces prevented a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group from entering the southwestern Bryansk region. The agency said forces from the FSB and Ministry of Defense worked together to prevent the group from entering the Starodubsky district of Bryansk.  The FSB added that “in addition to foreign weapons, explosive devices, communication and navigation devices, FPV drones with stickers 'Property of the FSB of Russia' and Russian symbols were found at the site of the clash”. Russian security officials claimed earlier this year that a small Ukrainian armed group had crossed the Russian border into the Bryansk region, which Russian President Vladimir Putin described as a terror attack. In May, a group of anti-Putin Russian nationals claimed responsibility for the attack.  CNN

Cargo Ship Leaves Ukraine Despite Threats from Russia.  A container ship left the Black Sea port of Odessa on Wednesday despite warnings from Russia that it would target commercial vessels in the region after abandoning the Black Sea grain deal.  It was the first vessel to use a temporary “humanitarian corridor” in the Black Sea that Ukraine established as a route to release cargo and ships stuck at its ports.  The departure of the Hong-Kong flagged ship, which had been trapped in port since Russia invaded Ukraine last year, followed recent Russian attacks on Ukraine’s port and grain infrastructure.  Moscow did not comment on the attacks and an industry source said the port was continuing operations. Russia also has not said if it will respect the shipping corridor.  Reuters

Lithuania Closes Two Belarus Border Crossings.  Lithuania closed two of the country’s six border crossings with Belarus on Wednesday, citing “geopolitical circumstances” without elaborating.  The crossings were not used by commercial vehicles.  The closures come after Russia’s Wagner Group moved to Belarus and after neighboring Poland closed all but one border crossing with Belarus, in response to Belarusian authorities detaining a journalist of Polish origin and expelling Polish diplomats.  Latvia is maintaining its two crossings with Belarus, though it ordered the army to reinforce the border guard on Tuesday to address increased crossings by illegal migrants from Belarus.  Reuters

ANALYSIS: Russian Raid Tests Turkey.  The recent boarding of a cargo ship off Turkey’s coast by armed Russian marines is testing Ankara as it seeks to revive the Black Sea grain deal.  The raid on Sunday occurred in international waters near Istanbul.  Russia called the raid an inspection of the vessel and claimed the ship did not halt when demanded by a Russian warship.  After the raid, Russia said the ship was allowed to continue to the Ukrainian port of Izmail.  Turkey did not comment on the incident, which analysts say underscores efforts by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to maintain good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin to coax him into returning the Black Sea grain deal to facilitate grain shipments and commercial shipping in the region.  Ankara has positioned itself as a mediator in the Ukraine war, refusing to impose sanctions on Russia while saying it opposes Moscow’s invasion.  Reuters

Asia and Oceania

Chinese Defense Minister Warns Against ‘Playing With Fire’ On Taiwan.  Chinese defense minister Li Shangfu on Wednesday warned against “playing with fire” when it comes to Taiwan.  In a veiled reference to the U.S., Li said any effort to “use Taiwan to contain China” will “surely end in failure.”  Li has made similar remarks in the past, but his latest comments were notable since he delivered them at a meeting of top defense officials in Moscow.  Russia’s defense ministry said over 20 “friendly states” participated, including Myanmar, Belarus and Iran.  Li’s visit marks his second trip to Russia since becoming defense chief and comes as Moscow and Beijing strengthen their security ties amid the Ukraine war.  CNN 

China’s Foreign Minister Urges South Asia to Join Belt and Road Initiative.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on Wednesday called on South Asian countries to strengthen ties with Beijing and “share the benefits of China’s growth.”  Speaking at the 7th China-South Asia Expo in the southwestern city of Kunming, Wang said China and South Asia should build “a development community” and boost cooperation for long-term regional stability and prosperity.  Wang specifically promoted China’s Belt and Road Initiative to develop infrastructure in the region.  The BRI has expanded in South Asia in recent years but has had faced some hurdles such as security issues in Pakistan, accusations that it is worsening Sri Lanka’s debt crisis, and tensions between China and India.  The China-South Asia expo was attended by India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives, as well as Southeast Asian nations and members of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.  South China Morning Post

Middle East and Northern Africa

Israeli Forces Raid Nablus.  Israeli forces raided the Balata refugee camp in the city of Nablus in the occupied West Bank on Wednesday.  The Israeli soldiers reportedly forced families to evacuate a residential building in the camp and then demolished it.  The Palestinian Red Crescent and officials said the building was the family home of a Palestinian man wanted by Israeli forces and that the Israeli troops also destroyed the Fatah party’s offices in Balata.  They added that several Palestinians were injured in the raid.  The Israeli military said it destroyed two laboratories for making explosives in the raid.  The incident was one of several overnight raids by Israeli forces in Nablus.  Israeli soldiers clashed with Palestinians earlier in the eastern part of the city after Israeli settlers stormed Joseph’s Tomb, a shrine in an area controlled by the Palestinian Authority.  In another incident, Israeli troops detained a Palestinian they claimed opened fire at them at the Huwara checkpoint.  Al Jazeera

Jordan Army Downs Explosive-Laden Drone.  The Jordanian army shot down a drone loaded with explosives (TNT) on Wednesday.  A military source said the drone came from the direction of Syria and was shot down within Jordan’s territory.  Reuters

Tripoli Fighting Kills 55.  Emergency services in Libya’s capital Tripoli said fighting in the city has killed 55 people and wounded 146, increasing an earlier casualty toll.  Violence began when the Special Deterrence Force detained a commander of the 444 Brigade.  Fighting stopped after the Special Deterrence Force agreed to hand over the commander to a third armed faction, the Stabilization Support Apparatus, which was not involved in the clashes.  444 Brigade warned it may resume military operations if their commander is not returned to their base.  Reuters

Islamic State still Commands Thousands in Syria and Iraq.  U.N. experts released a report this week saying that the Islamic State group still commands between 5,000 and 7,000 members across its former stronghold in areas of Syria and Iraq. The report additionally notes that the group poses the most serious terrorist threat in Afghanistan today.  The experts, who have been monitoring sanctions against the militant group, said that the threat from ISIS remained “mostly high in conflict zones and low in non-conflict areas”. In their report to the U.N. Security Council, they also acknowledged that “the overall situation is dynamic” and that despite losses in ISIS’s leadership and reduced activity, the risk of its resurgence remains.  Associated Press

Sub Saharan Africa

Malian Interpreters for German Forces Seeking Protection in Withdrawal.  Interpreters for German troops in Mali have asked Berlin for protection for themselves and their families as German forces are set to withdraw from the West African nation.  The withdrawal of the roughly 1,000 German soldiers in Mali is scheduled to be completed by the end of the year.  The German military was providing reconnaissance support for the 13,000-strong UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA, which is also set to withdraw after being asked by the Mali military junta to leave.  A spokesperson for the German defense ministry said, “We are conscious of our duty of care for our local staff and take their subjective feeling of being under threat seriously.”  The spokesperson added that the ministry has several protective measures that can be employed if necessary.  The German military says that it employs 60 local staff in Mali.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

OpenAI Proposes GPT-4 Technology as Tool for Online Content Moderation.  ChatGPT developer OpenAI is touting its GPT-4 AI model as a content moderation application through its ability to accelerate the process of identifying and labeling online posts.  OpenAI claims that the technology can perform content monitoring in about a day that previously took six months.  The company reports it is in the process of building “a content moderation system that is scalable, consistent and customizable."  GPT-4 technology not only can help with content, OpenAI says, but “can parse the various regulations and nuances in content policies and instantly adapt to any updates.”  Andrea Vallone, a member of OpenAI’s policy team, said the company agrees that human judgment still needs to be a factor in content moderation, adding “we’ve continued to have human review to verify some of the model judgments.”  Bloomberg Engadget VentureBeat Reuters

Slowly Evolving Plans for UK-Hosted Global AI Summit Begin To Emerge.  Britain’s plans to host a global AI summit are continuing to take shape, with dates and location for the gathering to be announced in the next several weeks.  UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak proposed the summit earlier this year as a way to gather world leaders and leading AI executives to discuss AI governance and risks.  In addition to leaders of the G7 nations, summit invitations are expected to go out to OpenAI chief Sam Altman, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Anthropic’s Dario Amodei and DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis.  It is still unknown if China will be invited to attend.  Matt Clifford, a co-organizer of the summit and chairman of the Advanced Research and Innovation Agency, the UK’s equivalent to DARPA, declined to comment on China’s participation, but said “in any global technology where you have both global risks and global consequences, it’s going to be important to take a genuinely international perspective.”  A possible venue for the summit is Bletchley Park, where British code-breakers cracked Germany’s Enigma code during World War II.  For Britain, the summit is described as a “rare opportunity” of the post-Brexit period to demonstrate global leadership involving a transformative technology.  Bloomberg Politico

Russian Luna-25 Spacecraft Enters Lunar Orbit Preparing for South Pole Landing.  A significant step in Russia’s quest to be the first to land on the moon’s south pole was taken Wednesday when the Luna-25 spacecraft entered lunar orbit.  One of the goals of the mission is to search on the moon’s surface for frozen water.  According to Roskosmos, the Russian space agency, Luna-25 will orbit the moon for 5 days before changing course to attempt a soft landing on the south pole on August 21.  Luna-25 will operate on the moon’s surface for a year to detect signs of water, which potentially would support longer human missions and possibly lead to mining of the moon’s resources.  An Indian spacecraft also is in lunar orbit and plans to touch down on the south pole later in August.  Anatoly Zak, a website publisher who tracks Russian programs, told Reuters that the Luna-25 mission is taking place amid what some call “the second lunar race,” adding that “Luna-25 is not just one mission - it is part of a much broader Russian strategy that stretches 10 years into the future."  Reuters

Italian Team Wins ‘Hack-a-Sat’ Contest Against Live, On-Orbit Satellite.  An Italian team, mHACKeroni, took top honors in the annual Hack-a-Sat contest, which for the first time challenged hackers to penetrate and execute commands on a live, on-orbit satellite.  Sponsored by the U.S. Space Force and Air Force Research Laboratory, the contest invited hacker teams from around the world to compete in “two ground-based challenges and seven on-orbit challenges testing their space-relevant skills including spacecraft operations, radio frequency communications and reverse engineering.”  The on-orbit target was the Moonlighter cubesat, which was launched in June and placed into low-earth orbit where it was probed in the Hack-a-Sat contest during the Def Con conference in Las Vegas.  Plans call for Moonlighter to be used in the future as a Pentagon cybersecurity testbed.  This year’s Hack-a-Sat challenge included hacking into Moonlighter to force it to take a picture of a ground target and download the image to a ground station, bypassing the satellite’s blocks on ground target imaging.  Prizes of $50,000, $30,000, and $20,000 were awarded, respectively, to mHACKeroni, made up of five Italian cyber research teams; a Polish-Irish-German team of cyber researchers; and a U.S.-British group.  BreakingDefense CyberScoop

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