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6:00 PM ET, Tuesday, July 18, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Top US General Defends Ukraine Counteroffensive Despite Slow Pace.  U.S. General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, on Tuesday said that despite the slower-than-anticipated pace of the Ukrainian counteroffensive it is “far from a failure,” asserting that it is “too early to make that kind of call” since there is more fighting left and Ukraine has a “significant amount of combat power not yet committed.”  He said that discrepancies in projections for the counteroffensive and reality point to “the difference between war on paper and real war,” explaining that “real people in real machines” are in play and having to move slowly “in order to survive.”  Milley added that he cannot comment on Ukraine’s future battle plans, saying only that they are “preserving their combat power” and are “slowly and deliberately and steadily” working their way against Russian defenses and through minefields.  Barron’sCNN Reuters

U.S. to Announce $1.3 Billion in Ukraine Military Aid.  U.S. officials say that the U.S. is preparing to announce $1.3 billion in new military aid for Ukraine.  The officials say that the weapons package will include VAMPIRE counter air-defenses, two different types of loitering munitions, or explosive drones, counter-drone systems, radars, sensors, and analysis systems.  The delivery of the weapons and systems in the package will depend on the availability and production timeline, and contents of the package may change up until it is formally announced.  The package will be funded by the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) program, which allows the U.S. to buy military equipment from industry rather than pull from stockpiles.  The Pentagon has provided more than $10.8 billion in security assistance for Ukraine under the USAI, with this package being the eighth planned tranche.  Reuters

Biden Meets Israeli President at White House.  U.S. President Joe Biden met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog on Tuesday at the White House. U.S. officials said the meeting was seen as an opportunity to strengthen ties between the U.S. and Israel, which have been strained due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial reform plans and expansion of Israeli settlements.  Herzog will also address the U.S. Congress and is meeting with Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan during his visit.  New York TimesReuters

Spain Orders Extradition of Former Venezuelan Spy Chief to U.S.  Spain’s High Court on Tuesday ordered Interpol to extradite the former director of Venezuelan military intelligence, Hugo Carvajal, to the U.S.  Carvajal is wanted by U.S. authorities for alleged drug trafficking, along with more than a dozen other high-ranking Venezuelan officials, including President Nicolas Maduro.  Carvajal has denied accusations of supporting cocaine trafficking.  He was arrested in Madrid in September of 2021.  Reuters

Western Europe

NATO Struggling to Supply Ammunition to Ukraine.  Western officials report that the U.S. and Europe are struggling to supply Ukraine with the ammunition it needs to sustain its counteroffensive against Russian forces.  Despite efforts to ramp up production of munitions, Ukraine has continued to burn through supplies faster than production can keep up.  Ukraine has particularly stressed supplies of 155mm artillery rounds, which Kyiv has relied on for artillery fire due to Russian mining preventing more combined arms maneuvers.  U.S. officials told CNN that the U.S. is nearing limits for how low it will allow its stockpiles to reach, resulting in the stopgap measure of approving cluster munitions for Kyiv in lieu of other rounds.  U.S. national security advisor told CNN on Sunday that the Biden administration has since ordered the Pentagon to “work rapidly to scale up the ability of the U.S. to produce all the ammunition we could ever need for any conflict at any time.”  Military officials say efforts to increase production, especially 155mm shells, is going to plan, but the move has underscored the massive effort and long time it takes to expand defense production capacity, which Sullivan said will take “years” to accomplish. Incentivising the defense industry is a major obstacle, which NATO countries have addressed by pledging millions in support and negotiating joint production and multi-year procurement arrangements.  CNN 

EU Likely to Maintain Missile Sanctions on Iran.  A European official told reporters on Tuesday that he believes EU nations will agree to maintain ballistic missile sanctions on Iran that are set to expire in October.  Sources previously said in June that the sanctions could be extended past their expiration due to Russia’s use of Iranian drones in Ukraine; the possibility that Russia will transfer ballistic missiles to Ukraine; and Iran’s violation of commitments in the 2015 nuclear deal, albeit after the U.S. did so first.  Beyond the sanctions, the European official said there may be a “small window of opportunity” by the end of this year to revive negotiations and either return to the 2015 nuclear deal or at least reach “an agreement of de-escalation.”  Reuters 

EU Foreign Policy Chief Borrell to Visit China in October.  EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has reportedly “tentatively” agreed to visit China in October.  EU sources said Borrell expressed willingness to make the trip after meeting with China’s top diplomat Wang Yi in Jakarta last week.  The sources added that the visit is meant to be a “strategic dialogue” aimed at setting the stage for an EU-China summit.  However, the sources did not indicate if Borrell will meet with Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang, who has not been seen in public for three weeks.  South China Morning Post

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukraine Says Creating Conditions for Advances South, Eastern Fighting Continues.  Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar on Tuesday said that Ukraine is creating conditions to further advance on the southern front in its counteroffensive.  She said that Russian forces are “putting a lot of effort” to prevent Ukrainian progress in the region, meaning that Ukrainian troops are facing an “extremely difficult situation.”  Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Commander of the Tavria Joint Force Operation, added that Ukraine is making some gains in southern Ukraine, with Russian forces losing “more than three companies” in the last day, as well as “41 units of enemy military equipment” and “four enemy ammunition depots.”  In eastern Ukraine, Maliar said Ukrainian troops advanced, preventing a Russian offensive in Kupyansk and making progress around Bakhmut.  CNN

Ukraine Says Land Routes Cannot Replace Black Sea for Grain Trade.  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Tuesday that current land alternatives cannot substitute routes for grain exports under the Black Sea grain deal.  He said that while there are rail routes through Eastern Europe for Ukraine to export grain and oilseed, they cannot handle the volume of foodstuffs that Ukraine wants to export.  Kuelba said that because of this, Ukraine cannot accept that the deal is over just because of Russia’s withdrawal and that there should be another solution.  He also reiterated that Russia’s decision to terminate the deal is “blackmail” that should “not be tolerated” and that Moscow should reimplement the deal “in good faith.”  CNN

First Wagner Troops Arrive at Belarus Base.  Satellite imagery from Planet Labs and Airbus shows a large convoy of suspected Wagner Group fighters have arrived from Russia at a base in Belarus.  The images tracked the convoy through Belarus to the camp around the same time as video posted on social media showed vehicles bearing Russian and Wagner flags headed towards the camp.  Analysts identified around 100 new vehicles at the base, including trailers, trucks, flatbeds with bulldozers and civilian-style trucks and cars.  It is unclear how many suspected Wagner fighters may now be at the camp.  The images mark the first time Wagner units have been publicly seen in the region following the group’s failed mutiny in June.  Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed to have brokered a deal to end the uprising, which included the relocation of Wagner units to Belarus.  Lukashenko previously offered the abandoned military base to the mercenaries if needed and has now said Wagner units “are currently at their camps” inside the country.  The whereabouts of Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin remain unknown.  BBCCNN

Russian Special Forces Unit Transferred to National Guard Ready for Deployment to Ukraine.  The Grom Special Forces Unit of Russia’s Ministry of Internal Affairs has been transferred to the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya).  Officials say that this transfer, which was ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin, now allows the Grom unit to be deployed to the front lines in Ukraine, giving Russian forces up to 7,000 more soldiers in reinforcements.  CNN

Ukraine Approves Reconstruction of Kakhovka Dam.  The Ukrainian government on Tuesday approved a plan to rebuild the Kakhovka Hydro Power Plant (HPP), which was destroyed by an explosion in June.  Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said reconstruction will last for two years, beginning with a designing and planning stage and followed by actual construction after the “de-occupation” of where the HPP is located, which is currently occupied by Russian troops.  Shmyhal said Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy will work with Ukraine’s state-owned company Ukrhydroenergo on the project.  He added that the decision to rebuild the HPP was made to restore irrigation systems in southern Ukraine and boost Ukraine’s agricultural and energy sectors.  Both Ukraine and Russia have blamed each other for destroying the dam.  CNN

USAID Chief Pledges $250 Million for Ukrainian Agricultural Aid on Odesa Visit.  USAID Chief Samantha Power on Tuesday announced $250 million in aid for Ukraine’s agricultural sector, in addition to the $100 million already invested and an additional $250 million USAID is seeking from the private sector and other donors.  USAID said the aid will be used to strengthen Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure and help sowing and planting for the rest of the year.  Power announced the aid during a visit to Odesa hours after Russia launched drone and missile strikes on the port city in retaliation for the attack on Crimea Bridge.  CNNReuters

Asia and Oceania

U.S. Soldier Who Crossed Into North Korea Faced Disciplinary Action at Home.  U.S. officials say the American soldier who crossed the inter-Korean border into North Korea on Tuesday and is likely now in North Korean custody was due to face disciplinary action by the U.S. military back home.  CBS News reports that the soldier was in military detention in South Korea and was being escorted to the U.S. for disciplinary reasons.  After going through airport security, the soldier somehow exited the airport and joined a civilian tour group at the demilitarized zone separating North Korea and South Korea.  Witnesses say he ran across the border during the tour. Witnesses added that there were no North Korean border guards present and they had been told there had not been any since the Covid-19 pandemic.  U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the soldier “willfully and without authorization” crossed into North Korean territory and that the U.S. is “closely monitoring and investigating the situation.”  BBCNBC News Reuters

Explosion in Pakistan’s Peshawar Kills Two.  A suicide bombing near a paramilitary force vehicle killed two people and wounded several others in the northwestern Pakistani city of Peshawar on Tuesday.  Local health officials confirmed at least two people were injured in the attack.  Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan has claimed responsibility for the attack.  The jihadist group previously attacked a military base in Pakistan’s southwest province of Balochistan last week.  Pakistan’s army expressed concerns on Friday that such militants have found a safe haven in neighboring Afghanistan and has threatened to take an “effective response.”  Reuters

Middle East and Northern Africa

Algeria, China Agree to Deepen Strategic Partnership.  Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune met Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday in Beijing.  The two leaders agreed to expand collaboration in various technology sectors — including aerospace, nuclear, information and communications technology — and deepen security and defense cooperation.  The two also agreed to support each other’s core interests and protect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, with Tebboune reportedly saying Algeria recognizes China’s position on Taiwan and Xinjiang issues.  The Algerian leader added that his country is willing to participate in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and Xi reportedly welcomed Algeria’s interest in joining BRICS.  Algeria and China have strong trade ties, and the North African country is an important partner for Beijing as it is rich in oil, gas and mineral resources like iron and is strategically located on the Mediterranean Sea.  South China Morning PostReuters  

U.S. Gives Tunisia Four T-6C Training Aircraft.  The Tunisian Defense Ministry stated on Tuesday that they have received four T-6C training aircraft from the U.S.  Tunisian defense officials said the planes will provide the country’s air force with advanced training capabilities and help upgrade its aging military fleet.  Reuters

Qatar Set to Supply LNG to Japan.  Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida met with Qatar’s leader, Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, in Doha on Tuesday.  In their meeting, the two leaders agreed to strengthen ties between their countries, especially in the energy sector.  Kishida specifically focused on securing new liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from Qatar as part of efforts to reduce dependence on Russian gas.  While no official deals have been announced, the emir said Qatar is “prepared” to ensure a stable LNG supply for Tokyo.  Kishida’s visit to Qatar capped his energy-focused Gulf tour.  Kishida previously visited Saudi Arabia on Sunday, during which Riyadh reiterated its commitment to providing oil to Japan and continuing cooperation with Tokyo on clean hydrogen, ammonia, and recycled carbon fuels.  Kishida also met with UAE leaders in Abu Dhabi and agreed to new energy security arrangements.  ReutersNikkei Asia

Cyber and Tech

White House Announces Consumer Smart Device ‘Trust Mark’ Certification Program.  A new Federal program – the U.S. Cyber Trust Mark – will be launched next year to certify consumer smart devices as meeting cybersecurity criteria established by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).  Major retailers, including Amazon, Best Buy, Google, Logitech, and Samsung, already have announced their participation in the voluntary program.  Smart device manufacturers that agree to the certification standards will be able to label their products with a Cyber Trust Mark logo, indicating their compliance with NIST criteria.  The NIST criteria include “unique and strong default passwords, data protection, software updates, and incident detection capabilities.”  The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) will administer the program with support from CISA.  A number of government regulators, including the Justice Department, will develop oversight and enforcement requirements.  Consumer “smart” products such as refrigerators, microwaves, televisions, and fitness trackers will be eligible for the trust labels.  At a media briefing announcing the program, a senior FCC official said the agency is considering annual recertifications, although the intervals have not yet been determined.  Deputy National Security Advisor Anne Neuberger said that device certifications would be performed by third-party labs like the Connectivity Standards Alliance or the Consumer Technology Association.  The Record The Verge Washington Post Axios  CyberScoop 

Commerce Department Adds Two More Spyware Vendors to U.S. Blacklist.  The Commerce Department has blacklisted two additional spyware producers for their roles in “trafficking in cyber exploits used to gain access to information system” that threatened individual and organizational privacy and security around the world.  The two companies – Greece-based Intellexa and Hungary-based Cytrox – were added to the department’s Entity List, which identifies organizations posing a threat to U.S. security and national interests.  A senior department official explained the latest blacklisting action by noting, "without appropriate guardrails, these tools can be misused to conduct intrusive and harmful surveillance on a wide range of targets, including against activists, dissidents, journalists and political opposition."  Intellexa and Cytrox, which manufactures the Predator spyware used to eavesdrop on journalists and politicians, join the Israel spyware vendors, NSO Group and Candiru, on the Entity List.  The department noted that businesses on the entity list are likely to find it difficult to access commodities, software, and technology used in the development of surveillance tools.  A statement by Alan Estevez, undersecretary of Commerce for industry and security, emphasized the importance of curbing illegal surveillance, stating “we remain laser focused on stemming the proliferation of digital tools for repression.”  The Record Axios CyberScoop Reuters

Govini Analysis Sees U.S. Lagging China in Critical Defense-Related Technologies.  China’s rapid scientific advances, and substantial investments in critical technologies, threaten to outdistance the U.S., especially its defense industrial base.  These and related conclusions were described in the Govini data research firm’s 2023 National Security Scorecard.  Despite the Federal government’s FY2022 outlays of nearly $200 billion for critical technologies, China still outdistances the U.S., according to the report.  Govini notes that patents are a key indicator of China’s accomplishments and pace, as the number issued to Chinese firms has steadily increased over the last five years while the U.S. has stalled.  In every identified critical technology segment since 2022, the report states, China has surpassed the U.S. in patents granted.  Bob Work, Govini chairman and former deputy defense secretary, told journalists that “[Patents] are the seed for making new discoveries that put you on the top of the competitive food chain.  That’s what scares me the most [because] China’s doing far better than us in terms of the overall number of patents.”  With reference specifically to defense concerns, Govini’s scorecard assessed that “America is falling short in rapidly incorporating cutting-edge software and hardware into military platforms and munitions.” The report noted that the U.S. is failing to innovate to improve historic capabilities and accelerate production, but is instead “grappling with major shortfalls of munitions, are behind schedule on critical modernization programs including in the nuclear triad, and have no prospects of successfully achieving the shipbuilding targets that a potential Indo-Pacific conflict demands.”  DefenseNewsBreakingDefense

U.S. Planning Investment Curbs on Critical Technology Investments in China.  A narrowly focused set of new administration restrictions on investment in China probably will not go into effect until 2024, Bloomberg reports.  Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a Bloomberg interviewer Monday that the anticipated provisions “would not be broad controls that would affect U.S. investment broadly in China, or in my opinion, have a fundamental impact on affecting the investment climate for China.”  Instead, the limits on investments would pinpoint cutting-edge technology and impact only new investments, with possible concentrations in semiconductor, quantum, and AI technology sectors.  Initial indications are that the biotechnology and energy sectors will be exempted.  The reported direction of the investment limits, a Georgetown University researcher noted, should reassure investors that “there really is an emphasis from the administration that they’re doing this carefully.”  Emily Weinstein, a specialist in US-China technology competition at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology, said “only your most egregious things will be outright prohibited,” such as advanced semiconductors destined for Chinese military clients.  The administration plans for a months-long public comment period as well as engagement with Wall Street and affected industries.  Meanwhile, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson on Tuesday said, “China opposes U.S. politicizing and weaponizing trade and tech issues.  It is in no one’s interest to place arbitrary curbs on normal technology cooperation and trade.”  Bloomberg

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