6:00 PM ET, Tuesday, July 11, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Biden’s Nominee For Next Top U.S. General Warns Against Efforts to Block Promotions. General Charles “CQ” Brown, President Joe Biden’s nominee to become the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, warned on Tuesday that efforts by Republican senators to block military promotions could have large and far-reaching implications for military members and their families. Brown warned that further delays in promotions will not only leave key leadership positions unfilled but will also discourage junior officers and pressure families of military personnel, which will cause the U.S. military to “lose talent.” Brown’s remarks, which he made at his Senate Armed Services Committee confirmation hearing to be chair of the Joint Chiefs, come in response to efforts by Senator Tommy Tubervile (R-Ala.) to block military nominations to protest Pentagon abortion policies. Tuberville’s hold on nominations has already resulted in critical openings: Marine Commandant General David Berger ended his four-year tour on Monday, but his successor, General Eric Smith, is one of many whose promotion is on hold. The Cipher Brief Politico Reuters
U.S. Sanctions Pro-Russia Serbia Security Chief. The US Treasury Department on Tuesday announced that it has imposed sanctions on the Director of Serbia’s Intelligence agency, Aleksandar Vulin. The department alleged that Vulin had “used his public positions to support Russia, facilitating Russia’s malign activities that degrade the security and stability of the Western Balkans and providing Russia a platform to further its influence in the region.” Additionally, the Treasury accused Vulin of maintaining a relationship with US-designated Serbian arms dealer, Slobodan Tesic to ensure Tesic’s illegal arms shipments moved freely through Serbia. The sanctions come after months of protests in Belgrade that have called for Vulin’s resignation for failing to bring criminal organizations to justice. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has not commented on the allegations against Vulin. Politico Radio Free Europe Bloomberg
Cuba Denounces Presence of Nuclear-Powered Submarine at Military Base. Cuba’s Foreign ministry on Tuesday denounced the presence of a nuclear-powered submarine at its military base at Guantanamo Bay, calling it a “provocative escalation”. The ministry stated that the submarine was at the base between July 5 to July 8. It did not specify if the submarine was armed. The ministry said that the deployment of U.S. nuclear submarines and armed forces and presence of U.S. military bases in the Caribbean threatens the sovereignty of all peoples in the region and that the U.S. is threatening to use its “war capabilities” to seize the region’s natural resources. The ministry also reiterated calls for the U.S. to end its military presence in Cuba. The White House and the U.S. Department of Defense did not respond to requests for comment, and the U.S. State Department declined to give information about the movement of U.S. military assets, saying only that Cuba’s protest of the submarine is aimed at distracting from the two-year anniversary of the 2021 protests that rocked the island. Reuters
Western Europe
NATO Says Ukraine’s Future in Alliance, Stops Short of Timeline for Membership. NATO leaders declared during the alliance’s summit in Vilnius on Tuesday that Ukraine’s future is in NATO, though they only said they will invite Kyiv to join “when allies agree and conditions are met.” There were no details on specific conditions or a timeline for the invitation. The leaders’ communique did say that NATO will continue to work on Ukraine’s military interoperability and democratic and security sector reforms, noting that Ukraine has already “made substantial progress” on reforms. It also said that NATO is no longer requiring Ukraine to fulfill a Membership Action-Plan (MAP), which NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said would simplify Ukraine’s accession to NATO “from a two-step process to a one-step process.” The text appeared to ensure Ukraine would potentially have an accelerated accession process while also addressing U.S. and German concerns over lowering the bar for entry and guarding against pulling NATO into a direct conflict with Russia. Despite this, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky criticized the declaration, saying it showed “no readiness neither to invite Ukraine to NATO nor to make it a member of the alliance,” adding that “for Russia, this means motivation to continue its terror.” Zelensky also asserted, in remarks to a crowd in Vilnius, that “Ukraine will make NATO stronger,” adding that he has “faith” in a “NATO that does not hesitate, does not waste time.” Zelensky previously said it would be “unprecedented and absurd” if the NATO summit did not produce a timetable for Ukraine’s membership in the alliance. Stoltenberg defended the summit communique, saying “there has never been a stronger message from NATO” about its support for Ukraine and that accessions to the alliance “are conditions-based” and have never been accompanied with a timetable. Al Jazeera Deutsche Welle Financial Times Reuters
NATO Creating New Ukraine Council. NATO said on Tuesday that Ukraine’s security is of “great importance” to the alliance and announced that it is establishing a new joint body, the NATO-Ukraine Council. The council aims to facilitate Ukrainian aspirations for membership in the alliance and will “provide for joint consultations, decision-making, and activities, and will also serve as a crisis consultation mechanism between NATO and Ukraine. The council will hold its first meeting on Wednesday with the participation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the council is part of a “strong” package meant to give “a clear path” towards Ukraine’s membership in NATO. Al Jazeera
NATO Criticizes China’s Partnership With Russia. In the NATO leaders’ joint communique, they call on China to cease sending lethal aid to Russia or supporting the Russian war effort in Ukraine “in any way.” The communique added that Beijing’s “deepening” partnership with Moscow contrasts NATO values. Beyond Russia, the communique said that China’s “stated ambitions and coercive policies” challenge NATO’s “interests, security and values.” China has yet to condemn Russia for its invasion of Ukraine or call for the withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory. CNN
NATO Calls on Iran to Stop Sending Drones to Russia. The NATO joint communique also expressed “serious concern” over Iran’s “malicious activities within allied territory.” It noted that Iranian military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine is impacting alliance security and called on Tehran to “cease” such aid, namely with Iran’s transfer of drones to Russia. NATO also called on Iran to fulfill obligations under the 2015 nuclear deal and emphasized its “clear determination” that Iran never develop a nuclear weapon. CNN
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukrainian Pilots to Start Training on F-16 Fighter Jets. A coalition of eleven nations have agreed to begin training future Ukrainian F-16 fighter pilots in August. The training center for the pilots will be set up in Romania, according to NATO officials. The first pilots are expected to be trained by early 2024, with Denmark’s acting defense minister Troels Lund Poulsen telling reporters, “Hopefully, we will be able to see results in the beginning of next year.” Denmark and the Netherlands have been leading efforts to train pilots and enable supply of F-16s to Ukraine to help with the war effort against Russia. So far, no country has formally offered to send F-16s to Ukraine. Politico Reuters
Russia Claims Advance in Eastern Ukraine. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed on Tuesday that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian offensive near the eastern Ukrainian town of Lyman and advanced 1.5 kilometers (0.9 miles) after a successful “counterattack.” He said that Ukrainian forceps have launched “several waves of attacks” in the area in an attempt to break Russian defenses. He added that Ukraine has “not achieved its aims in any area” for its counteroffensive. Shoigu’s claims, which were delivered on Russian state TV, could not be immediately verified. Al Jazeera Barron’s
Russia Warns of Response to NATO Expansion. Russia warned on Tuesday that it will respond to any expansions of NATO. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow is taking “adequate steps well in advance” to respond to the prospect of Sweden’s accession to NATO, following signals that Turkey will back Stockholm’s membership bid. Lavrov added that Russia is amazed “at the speed Finland and Sweden abandoned their neutral status,” saying the reversal to join NATO has cut off the Scandinavian countries from “special trade relations” with Moscow that they had had for decades. Separately, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned that if Ukraine is admitted into the alliance, it would be “very dangerous for European security” and that “those who will make the decision should be aware of this.” The comments come amid the NATO summit in Vilnius where Sweden and Ukraine’s future in the alliance are top of mind. Barron’s Newsweek The Hill
Russia Vows to Use Similar Weapons if Ukraine Receives U.S. Cluster Munitions. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday that Moscow will use “similar weapons” if the U.S. supplies Ukraine with cluster munitions. Shoigu added that Russia has cluster munitions but has not used them in its invasion of Ukraine, though he also said Russia’s cluster bombs are “much more effective” than U.S. ones. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev claimed that Ukrainian forces already used cluster munitions in Zaporizhzhya, which he said means “it is time to unload our arsenals of these inhuman responses.” NATO, Ukraine and humanitarian groups report that Russia has used cluster bombs in the war, and rights groups say Ukraine has deployed them as well. Al Jazeera CNN Reuters
Asia and Oceania
NATO Removes Mention of Japan Office in Communique. A sentence referring to negotiations about a NATO office in Tokyo has been removed from the alliance’s joint summit communique, sources told Nikkei Asia. The move now leaves the proposal for the office, which would be used to bolster cooperation between Japan and NATO, in question. Several NATO members had opposed the office, with France openly saying that it would send the wrong message to China and that it would be seen as a pressure on Southeast Asian nations who are nervous about navigating the rivalry between the U.S. and China. The proposal for the Tokyo office came amid ramped-up efforts by NATO to engage with Indo-Pacific partners. Nikkei Asia
IEA: China Set to Aggressively Join Competition for Mineral Supplies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report on Tuesday that says China is set to be a strong competitor for mining assets. As the top producer of many refined metals and processed minerals and rare earths, China relies on imports of raw materials, “often from a small number of sources.” The report notes that China is almost entirely reliant on the Democratic Republic of Congo for unprocessed cobalt, on the Philippines and Myanmar for 80 percent of its nickel and tin, respectively, and on Australia for 60% of its lithium. The report says that China is now seeking to diversify its supplies for raw materials with investments in mining assets in Africa and Latin America, as well as overseas refining and downstream facilities. The report predicts that this investment will increase and cause “greater competition” for such raw materials globally. The report notes that Western countries are also seeking to diversify supplies, and resource-rich countries are responding to protect their market share through ways like limiting the export of key minerals. It welcomed the increased investment and expansion in the development of key minerals, which it says will help energy transition goals. Nikkei Asia
Taiwan Expanding Air-Raid Exercises. The Taiwanese Defense Ministry announced on Tuesday that it will be expanding the scope of its annual air-raid drills. In addition to tests for the preparedness of civilians, this year’s drills will also include an exercise to test how well Taiwan’s 22 local governments conduct evacuations of residents. The air raid drills are set to coincide with the five-day annual Han Kuang military exercises that are set to begin on July 24. South China Morning Post
Middle East and Northern Africa
UN Fails to Renew Aid Operation to Northwest Syria. The UN-brokered agreement that allows for aid to be transferred overland from Turkey into rebel-held areas of northwestern Syria expired on Monday. Russia on Tuesday vetoed a nine-month extension of the operation, and instead suggested a six-month extension. The U.S., Britain and France said they were against it, which led to Russia vetoing its own six-month extension proposal, ending hopes for a renewal of the operation. Russia’s ambassador the UN Vassily Nebenzia said that without support from the rest of the UN Security Council, Moscow would “close down the cross-border mechanism” without any “technical rollover” to briefly extend the operation. US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield said Washington will continue to work on renewing the operation. The UN aid operation provided for over 80 percent of the needs of those in rebel-controlled areas. Russia and Syria argued that the operation violated Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and have called for more aid to be delivered via the Syrian government. Al Jazeera Reuters
Israel Protests Against Controversial Judicial Reform Bill. Thousands of protesters blockaded Israel’s major highways and main airport on Tuesday in response to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition pressing ahead with a judicial reform bill that has polarized the country. One day after parliament had passed a component of the bill that seeks to curb the power of the Supreme Court, protestors took to the streets nationwide. Roughly 1,000 police had been deployed at Ben Gurion airport, outside of Tel Aviv, in response. If the bill is passed as it is, it will curb the Supreme Court’s power to void decisions made by the government by ruling such decisions as unreasonable. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
Cybersecurity Experts Outline Potential NATO Enhancements of Cyber Capabilities. NATO could take a number of steps to bolster its cybersecurity defenses and become more proactive in cyberwarfare, experts consulted by SecurityWeek have suggested. Ross Brewer, an executive with SimSpace, a cybersecurity systems and services provider, focused on two priorities for NATO to consider, beginning with an intensified look at “internal threats” rather than the “big bad wolf” beyond a country’s borders. Brewer acknowledges the presence of foreign adversaries, like Russia, but says “the cyber battle is waged locally, not on some foreign battlefield.” The second priority Brewer points to is regular “stress testing” of the alliance’s capabilities following the model set by U.S. Cyber Command and its mission focus on “defending DOD networks and systems, conducting offensive cyber operations, and building cyber partnerships.” Another expert, Bugcrowd CEO Dave Gerry, raised the prospect of a NATO Cyber Command, which he said would require the alliance “to openly share attack information, threats, and as importantly, partner with the private sector to build resilient environments to attacks.” A formal command structure with these core missions could be an effective countermeasure to growing threats from Russia, China, and Iran to which, Gerry said, “NATO members must actively respond accordingly.” In its survey of expert opinion, SecurityWeek acknowledges several key obstacles NATO must face and overcome, including bringing alignment to the wide variance in capabilities and resources among NATO member states. SecurityWeek Politico
Chinese AI Regulations Consider Pre-Release ‘Licensing’ Requirement for Products. The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) is developing a regulatory system for generative AI that aims to balance the government’s determination to control content with the private sector’s ambitions to capitalize on the technology. CAC is preparing licensing requirements for companies before the release of generative AI models, a tightening of draft regulations circulated in April. Matt Sheehan, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) fellow, described the contending goals in China: “It is the first time that [authorities in China] find themselves having to do a trade-off” between sustaining AI leadership and controlling information. CAC director Zhuang Rongwen recently said the agency’s approach is to ensure generative AI is “reliable and controllable.” A source close to the CAC’s regulatory planning said content control will require companies to obtain advance approval for AI products but that the rules for development should avoid “stifling domestic companies in the tech race.” A just-released CEIP research paper acknowledges the tensions in China’s regulatory approach, but concludes that its emerging framework deserves “careful study” for tracking China’s progress in AI technology development and for what it “can teach policymakers around the world about regulating the technology.” China’s experience may be informative as other countries seek to determine “the underlying structures and technical feasibility of different regulatory approaches.” Financial Times CEIP
Shanghai AI Conference Examines AI ‘Data Poisoning’ Threat, Remedies. Nicholas Carlini, a Google research scientist, warned an AI conference in Shanghai that AI datasets could be vulnerable to “poisoning” by an attacker intent on disabling an AI system. Carlini said that threats once regarded as the purview of research experimentation “have evolved into tangible threats in real-world contexts.” The potential for “data poisoning” occurs when a small number of corrupted samples are incorporated into an AI training data set, compromising its integrity. In response, a Chinese professor at Beijing’s Institute of Technology has described a way of reverse-engineering AI to enhance its ability to handle tainted training data. Li Changsheng led an institute team whose study published in the Journal of Software described a process by which data introduced to an algorithm is tested by an “auxiliary algorithm” to compare preliminary training results and “determine if the data qualifies as reasonable training data.” According to Li, similar algorithms could be employed to remove imbalanced data and analyze model flaws. The paper noted, however, that “reverse intelligence tasks are considerably more challenging, demanding higher computational resources and potentially a new architecture or greater bandwidth.” South China Morning Post
Pro-Chinese Twitter Accounts Parrot Official Beijing Content to Latin America. Three Twitter accounts with apparent ties to the Chinese government have been attempting to influence Latin American audiences with propaganda messages, the NISO cybersecurity firm reported today. NISO’s analysis said the Twitter accounts promote pro-Beijing themes to Paraguay, Costa Rica, Chile, and Brazil and appear to have links to the government propaganda arm, China News Service. In addition, a complex of pro-Chinese information outlets are active in Latin America, including Chinese-Latin American think-tanks, “sock puppets, self-described ‘independent’ journalists” and others pushing similar pro-Chinese messages, according to NISO. One of the accounts examined by researchers invites users to download an app capable of collecting personal data, thereby raising the possibility of China “micromanaging narratives” and gathering information on dissidents living overseas. NISO’s research team cannot “definitively link” the observed accounts to official Chinese sources. However, the report notes the accounts “put effort into applying methodologies to avoid adding links that would take users back to China News Service,” which provides the bulk of the accounts’ content. CyberScoop
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