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4:00 PM ET, Tuesday, December 5, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

Tuberville Ends Blockade on Most Military Nominees.  Senator Tommy Tuberville says he is ending his blockade on most of the hundreds of military promotions in the Senate, clearing the way for their approval.  He had blocked the promotions over a dispute about the Pentagon’s reproductive health policies.  Nearly 400 military promotions have been blocked by Tuberville, which has left some key national security positions unfilled.  Axios Associated Press New York Times

Netanyahu says Israel Needs Open-Ended Security Control of Gaza.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Israel will have to retain open-ended security control over the Gaza Strip after the war with Hamas.  In some of his strongest remarks about governance of post-war Gaza, Netanyahu told reporters that the territory must be militarized and that only the Israeli military is capable of ensuring this.  He asserted that “no international force can be responsible for this” and that he is unable to accept any other arrangement.  Associated Press Washington Post 

Putin to Visit UAE, Saudi Arabia.  The Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin’s trip will focus on the Israel-Hamas war and coordination of global oil production for price stability.  Putin’s foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov told Russian news agency Interfax that the trip will be a “concentrated shot” and said it is “inevitable” that the Ukraine war will also be discussed.  Putin has rarely traveled abroad in recent years and mostly visits states that were a part of the Soviet Union. His last trip outside those countries was to China in October.  Putin’s travel was further limited in March when the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for his arrest for his alleged role in the forced transfer of Ukrainian children. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are not members of the ICC.  After his trip to the Gulf, Putin will host Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow on Thursday.  Reuters New York Times

Iran, Russia Agree to Jointly Combat Western Sanctions.  Iran and Russia signed a declaration on Tuesday on jointly countering Western sanctions imposed over the Ukraine war.  Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian signed the declaration at the sidelines of a summit of Caspian countries.  Lavrov said the declaration describes “ways and means of counteracting, mitigating and compensating the negative consequences” of the sanctions, which both Moscow and Tehran view as “illegal.”  Russia and Iran have strengthened military and economic ties since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.  Iran is accused of sending military drones to Russia for use in Ukraine and is potentially preparing to send ballistic missiles as well.  Iranian officials recently said that Russia will transfer fighter jets and attack helicopters to Tehran.  Kyiv Independent 

Zelensky to Address U.S. Senators in Confidential Call.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is addressing U.S. senators in a confidential video call on Tuesday to update them on the state of the war with Russia and appeal for new U.S. financial and military aid.  The briefing will come as the Biden administration’s new Ukraine funding package remains stalled in Congress and after the White House warned that the U.S. will run out of money to support Ukraine by the end of the year without congressional action.  The Senate will vote on the administration’s $106 billion national security package, which includes over $61 billion in Ukraine assistance, on Wednesday, but it is expected to fail.  Some Republicans have opposed additional aid without simultaneous funding for stronger border security measures and due to concerns about goals and strategy in Ukraine.  New York Times

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israeli Forces Reach Heart of Khan Younis.  The commander of the Israeli military’s Southern Command, General Yaron Finkelman, said that Israeli forces are “in the most intense days” of fighting since the start of their offensive in Gaza following the Hamas attacks on October 7.  He said that Israeli troops are “in the heart” of Khan Younis, as well as the Jabalia refugee camp and Shuja’iyya in northern Gaza.  Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, chief of Israel’s General Staff, likewise said that Israeli forces are “encircling the Khan Younis area,” adding that Israel has “secured many strongholds” in northern Gaza and is now operating against Hamas strongholds in southern Gaza.  Hamas’s armed wing, the al Qassam Brigades, claimed that its fighters destroyed or damaged 24 Israeli military vehicles and killed or wounded eight Israeli soldiers in Khan Younis.  Separately, Gaza health officials say Israeli air strikes in the area have killed dozens of Palestinians.  Israel has said it is open to “constructive feedback” on reducing harm to civilians as long as advice matches its war goals of eliminating Hamas.  The U.S. has said it expressed concerns about civilian casualties in this next phase of the war and that Israel is showing some receptiveness.  Rights groups disagree, with Jan Egeland, head of the Norwegian Refugee Council, saying that the Israeli military actions in Gaza “can in no way be described as self defense” and that “the situation in Gaza is a total failure of our shared humanity.”  Reuters

Jordan’s King Reiterates Call Against Forced Expulsion of Palestinians.  Jordan’s King Abdullah reiterated on Tuesday that the world should condemn any effort by Israel that will lead to the forced displacement of Palestinians within the Gaza Strip or outside of the territory.  He also again called for a ceasefire in Gaza and the uninterrupted flow of sufficient aid into the territory.  He also said Israeli bombings in Gaza are leading to a “dangerous deterioration” in the situation.  His comments came amid simultaneous concerns about violence in the West Bank — including settler attacks on Palestinian civilians, confiscation of land, and Israeli military raids — which could push Palestinians across the Jordan River.  Jordan has said the forcible expulsion of Palestinians would amount to a declaration of war.  Reuters

Tel Aviv Stock Exchange Rejects Suggestion of Unusual Trading Ahead of Hamas Attacks.  The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) rejected a report by U.S. researchers that suggested that there were investors who may have known in advance that Hamas was going to launch attacks on Israel on October 7 and used the information to profit off of Israeli securities, calling it inaccurate and irresponsible.

Law Professors Robert Jackson from New York University and Joshua Mitts of Columbia University published research that found significant short-selling of shares leading up to the attack.  They wrote that days before the attack, traders seemed to “anticipate the events to come,” citing short interest in the MSCI Israel Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that significantly spiked on October 2. They also referred to patterns that occurred in early April when it was reported that Hamas was initially planning its attack. They noted that short volume of the same ETF peaked on April 3 at similar levels as those on October 2.

TASE specifically rejected the researchers’ data that showed that Leumi, Israel’s largest bank, short-sold 4.43 million shares and yielded a profit of 3.2 billion shekels ($859 million).  TASE said that they miscalculated since share prices are listed in agorot, similar to cents or pence, instead of shekels. The stock exchange’s calculation put the total profit at 32 million shekels. Head of the stock exchange Yaniv Pagot said that he did not see any data similar to what they wrote in the paper and added that the researchers had not spoken with TASE.  Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Warns of ‘Big Risk’ of Loss of U.S. Aid.  Andriy Yermak, Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, said on Tuesday that any postponement in U.S. aid for Ukraine will make a “big risk” of Ukraine being unable to liberate Russian-occupied areas and losing the war against Russia.  He emphasized the threat of no more direct budgetary support as a critical problem, as this assistance is needed to keep the Ukrainian government operating.  Reuters

Ukraine Reportedly Hits Several Russian Military Facilities in Crimea.  The Hromadske media outlet, citing an anonymous law enforcement source, reported that Ukrainian forces struck Russian military facilities in Crimea with drones on Tuesday. One of the facilities targeted by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the country’s intelligence agency (HUR) was the Marine Oil Terminal in Feodosiia. The source said that there were about 30 fuel tanks at the facility which provided fuel for the Russian military.  Another source reported that the SBU also hit a radar system near the village of Baherove, a helicopter parking lot, a P-18 Terek radar complex, and a control system for anti-aircraft missile units at other locations on the Crimean peninsula.  A Russian Telegram channel also reported the attack but said that Russian air defenses shot down two drones.  Kyiv has not made any statement about the attacks. The Russian Defense Ministry earlier claimed that its forces intercepted 41 drones over the sea of Azov and Crimea overnight and on Tuesday morning. Ukraine has increased attacks against Russian military targets on the Crimean peninsula in recent months.  Kyiv Independent

Russian Shelling in Kharkiv Village Destroys Clinic, Causes Blackout.  Russian forces shelled the village of Kozacha Lopan on Tuesday, destroying a clinic and leaving residents without electricity and cell phone connection.  Kozacha Lopan lies two kilometers away from Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia and suffers regular Russian attacks. A local official said that the shelling damaged the clinic’s vehicles, the central system of the village’s gasoline supply, and several power lines. He added that there were no casualties in the attack and called on the villagers to leave the town for “at least the winter period.”  Kyiv Independent

France’s Macron Invites Hungary’s Orban to ‘Strike Compromise’ on E.U. Support for Ukraine.  French President Emmanuel Macron invited Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to meet in Paris this week to reach a compromise on the E.U. 's support Ukraine.  The offer came after Orban sent a letter to European Council President Charles Michel calling for the E.U. to drop Ukraine’s membership and discussions on further aid for Kyiv from the agenda of the bloc’s upcoming summit.  Orban argued that the bloc must first hold a “strategic discussion” on Ukraine’s future with the bloc, warning that forcing a decision on potential membership without consensus could destroy E.U. unity.  The European Commission has recommended that the E.U. start membership talks with Ukraine once it completes certain reforms on corruption, lobbying concerns, and rights of minorities.  Orban has claimed that Ukraine is “light years” away from joining the bloc.  Orban is currently seeking the release of billions in funding for Hungary that the E.U. froze over rule of law and corruption concerns in Budapest.  Some of the funds have been released in recent weeks.  Orban’s letter signaled that the newly released funds have not changed his position on Ukraine’s membership.  Politico reports that Michel will cut his trip to China short due to the growing diplomatic crisis over Hungary and Ukraine.  An unnamed official said it is because Michel does not have a secure phone line and cannot be in contact with E.U. leaders on the matter “without China listening in.”  Kyiv Independent

Netherlands Provides $8.6 Million for Law Enforcement in Liberated Ukrainian Territories.  The European Union Advisory Mission (EUAM) Ukraine said on Tuesday that the Netherlands has pledged an 8 million euro ($8.6 million) funding package for Ukrainian law enforcement in territories liberated from Russian occupation.  EUAM Ukraine noted that law enforcement agencies are the first to take control of a territory once after fighting and that liberated areas face many challenges establishing security and “rebuilding social cohesion.”  The funding is expected to cover equipment such as mobile police stations, communications, and IT equipment.  Separately, Dutch Foreign Minister Hanke Bruins Slot met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv on Tuesday.  Zelensky said in their meeting that he was grateful for the support from the Netherlands.  Kyiv Independent

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Chinese Defense Research Team Describes ‘Breakthrough’ Drone-Borne Microwave Weapon.  A team of Chinese defense research scientists from a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) engineering university have developed a drone-borne microwave device more powerful than any similar system in the world.  The research team says the compact microwave weapon can fit “snugly” on all types of drones.  They describe it as “plug and play” in an article for the High Power Laser and Particle Beams journal published last month, noting that it can power up to an ultra-wide frequency range making it as capable as systems carried on electronic warfare aircraft.  The microwave device also can be used as a radar to track targets on ground, at sea, or in the air while performing as a radar and communications jamming weapon.  The researchers say that a microwave-equipped drone force would be an “overwhelming advantage” for Chinese forces in the South China Sea and Taiwan.  The journal article notes that drones with this technology can attack enemy early warning, surveillance and air defense systems “with close-in jamming or swarming saturation like a pack of wolves.”  The microwave system contains a component called the “traveling wave tube” which the team describes as the “workhorse” that powers the device.  South China Morning Post

UK Government Says ‘No Evidence’ of Hostile State Hack at Nuclear Waste Facility.  Contradicting an investigative report published Monday by The Guardian newspaper, the British government said there are “no records or evidence” to support claims that IT networks at the Sellafield nuclear waste site had been penetrated by state-linked threat actors.  The government said its “high degree of confidence” that no hacking intrusion had taken place was communicated to The Guardian before publication of the newspaper report. The Guardian on Monday reported that a year-long investigation had found that Russian and Chinese groups were behind a hacking campaign at the U.K.’s Sellafield nuclear waste site.  Separately, the UK Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR) said it had no evidence that a Sellafield system had been hacked.  The ONR did confirm that Sellafield is not currently meeting certain required cybersecurity standards, noting that the facility is under "significantly enhanced attention.”   According to the newspaper, an unknown number of documents detailing national plans for emergency responses had been compromised.  Sellafield employees reportedly uncovered the breach in 2015, but it went unreported to the ONR for “several years.”  Reuters The Guardian

Russian ‘Doppelganger’ Social Media Disinformation Campaign Targets U.S., Ukraine.  A Russian propaganda operation fueled by a broad array of social media accounts and bogus websites has been active for well over a year, according to researchers with Recorded Future’s Insikt Group.  The “Doppelganger” network, described by Meta as Russia’s “most aggressively persistent” disinformation operation, consists of at least 2,000 fake social media accounts that are monitored by Insikt, but the total could be even larger.  Despite the expanse of the campaign, Insikt describes the network’s influence on users in Germany, Ukraine, and the U.S. as “limited.”  Insikt described network user metrics such as reshares and replies as “negligible across the network.”  In a Doppelganger operation focused on Ukraine, a Russia-linked threat actor created over 800 social media accounts with links to fake articles masquerading as genuine Ukrainian news organizations. The articles aimed at “undermining Ukraine’s military strength, political stability, and international relationships with Ukraine’s Western allies.”  A campaign centered on German users featured narratives of “Germany’s domestic decline due to migration, economic policies, and continued support for Ukraine.”  The campaign’s accounts in the  U.S. promoted material critical of the LGBTQ+ movement and questioned U.S. military performance.  Researchers noted that the ongoing influence operation probably will “exploit U.S. societal and political divisions ahead of the 2024 US election.”  The Record

IBM Announces New Quantum Processor, Forecast of Error-Corrected Qubits.  IBM announced Monday it has produced two new quantum systems, including one based on its Condor chip, the largest quantum processor so far with 1,121 functioning qubits.  The company also issued an update that it will have error-corrected qubits operational by 2030 based on incremental improvements in the Flamingo chip.  The systems are not expected to reach the level of threatening existing encryption schemes but will be capable of executing quantum algorithms with far greater complexity than is available presently.  Jay Bambetta, IBM’s vice president of quantum, noted that the move from scientific to business value is “going to take a while.”  However, he maintained that “the difference between research and commercialization is getting tighter.”  IBM said its new system achievements signaled an end to the experimental phase of development of the past seven years, which focused on linking enough qubits together to carry out calculations, controlling the qubits to enable practical measurements of their states, and developing the first algorithms.  Ars Technica Financial Times IBM

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Asia and Oceania

China’s Foreign Minister Visits U.S. Embassy to Honor Henry Kissinger.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited the U.S. embassy in Beijing on Tuesday to offer his condolences over the death of former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.  Wang signed a condolence book for Kissinger and hailed his “objective and friendly” view towards China.  Kissinger was well known in China for his role in the normalization of relations between Washington and Beijing in the 1970s.  U.S. ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said he and Wang met at the embassy.  South China Morning Post

Papua New Guinea to Recruit Australian Police Officers in New Security Deal.  Papua New Guinea (PNG) will recruit Australian police officers for positions in its police force under a new security agreement to be signed later this week.  PNG Minister of State Justin Tkatchenko added that the deal covers defense and internal policing, improving biometric technology at airports, and assisting PNG farmers to meet Australian biosecurity standards.  He emphasized that the deal respects PNG sovereignty.  PNG Prime Minister James Marape will travel to Canberra on Thursday to sign the deal.  The agreement was delayed after backlash from PNG opposition politicians towards a defense deal with the U.S., which they argued infringed on PNG sovereignty and could draw the country into strategic competition between the U.S. and China.  Reuters

Volkswagen says Audit of Xinjiang Site Shows No Forced Labor, Auditor Notes Data Collection Challenges.  A Volkswagen-sponsored audit of the company’s jointly-owned manufacturing site in China’s Xinjiang region found no signs of forced labor, though the auditor noted challenges of data collection in China. The audit was performed by German human rights firm Loening Human Rights & Responsible Business GmbH and included on-site interviews and inspection of employee contracts and salary payments for all 197 employees.  Loening’s manager said that “the challenges in collecting data for audits are well known” in China and Xinjiang and added that the audit mandate was limited to employees of the Urumqi plant. Earlier this year, Volkswagen investors demanded that the automaker and joint owner SAIC conduct an audit of the Xinjiang plant after rights groups documented abuses including mass forced labor in detention camps in the region.  Beijing denies the human rights abuse allegations.  In November of 2022, Global index provider MSC marked Volkswagen a ‘red flag’ in its social issue category for allegations of forced labor in Xinjiang.  Reuters

The Americas

Brazil Reinforces Border with Venezuela, Guyana Over Esequibo Tensions.  Brazil’s Ministry of Defense said the Brazilian army is reinforcing the country’s northern border in response to rising tensions between Venezuela and Guyana over the Esequibo region.  A military source said Brazil is moving armored vehicles and troops to Boa Vista, the capital of Roraima state, which borders both Venezuela and Guyana.  The armored vehicles will join an upgraded 18th Mechanized Cavalry Regiment, which will increase in size to 600 soldiers.  The deployment comes after Venezuela held a referendum on Sunday to approve its annexation of the Esequibo.  Brazil’s top diplomat for Latin American and the Caribbean, Gisela Padovan, highlighted that the main road connection between Venezuela and Guyana is through Brazilian territory and said that its use for military action is not acceptable.  Reuters

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Ken Hughes, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report. 

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