6:00 PM ET, Tuesday, August 29, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
U.S. Announces $250 Million in New Ukraine Military Aid. The U.S. announced a new $250 million military assistance package for Ukraine on Tuesday. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the package includes mine clearing equipment, air defense missiles, ammunition for artillery and HIMAR systems, and over three million rounds of small-arms ammunition. The aid is being funded through previous drawdowns allocated for Ukraine. The U.S. has provided over $43 billion in military aid to Kyiv since the start of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Reuters U.S. Department of State
CIA-Trained Afghan Fighters Face Legal Uncertainty. Thousands of Afghans who fought in the CIA-led Afghan National Strike Units (NSUs), a clandestine force known as the “Zero Units,” are facing legal uncertainty in the U.S. Around 10,000 to 12,000 NSU members were evacuated from Afghanistan during the U.S. withdrawal in August 2021 and received two-year U.S. work permits, which will expire in the coming days. NSU members are appealing to Congress for support, with many saying they are struggling with depression and desperation as their status remains unresolved. Most have not received special immigrant U.S. visas which were meant for Afghans and Iraqis who worked for the U.S. government to use to apply for green cards. The Biden administration recently announced a new streamlined process for Afghan refugees to apply to renew their temporary legal status for two more years to then apply for permanent legal residence, but many activists say the bureaucratic process is frustrating. The CIA-trained Afghan veterans in particular seem to be facing issues as their renewal requests seem to get stalled when they answer “yes” to application questions asking about whether they have received past military training. Advocates for the NSU veterans say they were heavily vetted before joining the force and played a crucial, covert role in combating Al Qaeda and securing U.S. and coalition personnel in Afghanistan. U.S. intelligence officials note that allegations of human rights abuses among Zero Units could undermine efforts to resolve the legal status of the Afghan veterans. The CIA maintains the NSUs were held to high standards to reduce civilian casualties and strengthen accountability, adding that allegations against them are in part due to a “systemic propaganda campaign by the Taliban.” The U.S. State Department declined to comment. NBC News
Texas Guardsmen Used WhatsApp to Spy on Migrants, Mishandled Secret Docs. Military Times and The Texas Tribune report that military intelligence officials from the Texas National Guard’s Operation Lone Star Operation used WhatsApp to track migrants in February 2022. According to a whistleblower complaint, the officials infiltrated invite-only WhatsApp group chats between migrants and smugglers to identify targets. Texas National Guard leaders and Homeland Security officials viewed the operation as a violation of long-standing rules against state-run spy activities and an unauthorized foreign intelligence operation. In a separate incident at the same time, Lone Star Operation intelligence operatives allegedly mishandled classified FBI intelligence by sending it to their Texas Guard colleagues, which an internal investigation found apparently violated federal secrecy laws. At least four intelligence officers have faced interim administrative discipline over the debacles. The Texas Military Department’s inspector general confirmed that it investigated “potential questionable intelligence activities” from the border mission’s intelligence directorate. Army Times
Rare Video Shows Jailed U.S. Citizen Paul Whelan in Russia. Russian state-controlled news channel Russia Today (RT) released a rare video showing U.S. citizen Paul Whelan, a former marine jailed in Russia on espionage charges. The video shows Whelan, who was arrested in 2018 in Russia and convicted of spying charges in 2020, in a black prisoner uniform along with other inmates at a penal colony in Mordovia. His brother David Whelan said the video is the first time they have seen “what he really looks like” since June 2020. He added that RT appeared at the prison in May to film Whelan and when he declined, prison guards retaliated against him. The U.S. has deemed Whelan “wrongfully detained” and denies the charges made against him. Reuters CNN
Western Europe
Netherlands Doubles Q-9 Reaper Drone Order. The Netherlands is ordering four additional MQ-9 Reaper drones which can carry guided bombs and missiles from General Atomics Aeronautical Systems. The move both doubles the Dutch government’s order for the drones and will also arm them for the first time. The Dutch Ministry of Defense launched the process of buying four drones in 2011 solely for intelligence-gathering and surveillance. The initial batch of drones and associated ground control stations were delivered last year. The ministry said that it decided to expand the project because “the threat picture has changed considerably since then.” The new drones are set to carry GBU-12 laser-guided bombs and AGM-114 Hellfire II air-to-surface missiles. The package will be bought through the Foreign Military Sales program and cost between $108 million and $270 million. Defense News
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukrainian Troops Report ‘Complete Chaos’ on Southern Front. Ukrainian troops report intense fighting on the southern front as they continue to try and advance towards the strategic hub of Tokmak. Soldiers say most of the fighting is occurring south and east of the village of Robotyne, which Ukraine says it recaptured last week. An unofficial Ukrainian Telegram channel used by soldiers from the 46th separate airmobile brigade said there has been progress towards Verbove, but Russia is launching counter attacks on nearby Novoprokopivka. The channel also highlighted that both sides have “constant tactical coverage of each other’s positions” with reconnaissance drones, calling it “an online war.” One soldier with the 46th told CNN that the area is called the “triangle of errors “since “no one understands who is where, because there is no solid line of defense, nor contact line… Complete chaos.” A spokesperson for Ukraine’s military in the south said there are “very exhausting battles” that are a “face-to-face meeting with the enemy” in Zaporizhzhia. Russia’s defense ministry claimed it repelled two attacks by the 46th in Verbove and killed up to 90 Ukrainian military personnel, as well as artillery systems and two armored combat vehicles. CNN
Ukraine Says Russian Troops Trapped in Bakhmut. Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Hanna Maliar said Russian troops in the Bakhmut area are “trapped” since they “cannot get out of Bakhmut and cannot fully advance through the city itself.” She said fighting is ongoing there and that Ukraine is making progress there “little by little.” She noted that Russia has intensified efforts in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions to try and draw Ukrainian units there, but Ukraine’s military has “very powerfully” stopped their attacks there. She added that Ukrainian defenses remain strong at Avdiyivka and Maryinka. Maliar also emphasized that while Russia focuses attacks on the eastern front, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is focused on the southern front, namely in the Zaporihzhia and Kherson regions. Ukrinform
Russia Reports Ukrainian Rocket Attack on Bryansk. Russian officials say a Ukrainian cross-border attack on Russia’s western Byransk region caused an unspecified number of fatalities. Bryansk governor Alexander Bogomaz said Ukrainian multiple launch rockets (MLRS) hit the village of Klimovo, injuring at least five civilians and killing others. He added that the attack damaged school and residential buildings. Russia’s western border regions have reported constant drone and rocket attacks in recent months. CNN
Ukraine Reportedly Losing Around 40 Drones a Day. Yurii Shchyhol, head of the State Special Communications Service, said on Ukrainian television that Ukrainian forces are losing around 40 to 45 reconnaissance drones per day on average. He said over 22,000 attack drones have been contracted, and around 15,000 already delivered to the Ukrainian military, to date. He noted that drones have been critical to the war, for everything from short-range reconnaissance to offensive operations, and that Ukraine is working to acquire “as many drones as possible” and trying to “buy almost everything on the market.” Ukraine’s military is getting drones from both government procurement and other entities raising money to buy drones themselves. CNN
Ukraine’s Leopard 2 Tanks Suffer Minimal Losses in Counteroffensive. The Ukrainian military has reportedly lost just five of the 71 Leopard 2 tanks it has received from Western partners in the 13 weeks since the start of its counteroffensive. At least 10 of the German-made tanks have been damaged, but the Ukrainians are sending damaged tanks to repair depots in Poland and Germany and redeploying them to the front. All Leopard 2 losses happened in a 25-square mile area between Mala Tokmachka in the north and Robotyne in the south in the Zaporizhzhia region, where some of the fiercest fighting on the southern front has occurred. The combination of extensive mines and explosive Lancet drones in the area appeared to be the most damaging to Leopards 2s. Notably, photos and videos of the destroyed Leopard 2s showed open hatches, indicating that the tanks’ crews likely bailed out. Reports of the toughness of the Leopard 2 tanks reinforce how important they are to Ukraine both in achieving military goals and minimizing casualties. Forbes
Russia Facing Infantry Limits. The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russia is likely lacking “elite infantry” units previously used in large-scale offensives in Ukraine. ISW said Russia is rapidly redeploying elite airborne units along the front where Ukrainian counteroffensive troops are concentrated, such as the recent transfer of an elite Russian air unit, which was likely in Luhansk, to the newly liberated town of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia. ISW said frequent lateral redeployments of these units signal their capacity is being degraded, which will “likely weaken Russia’s ability to sustain complex defensive operations and almost certainly disrupt any Russian intent to resume offensive operations at scale.” Kyiv Independent Institute for the Study of War
Putin to Visit China in October. Sources say Russian President Vladimir Putin is planning to visit China for the Belt and Road Forum in October. The visit will be Putin’s first foreign trip since the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for his arrest in March over alleged war crimes in Ukraine. Putin hasn’t left Russia since the warrant was issued. He skipped the BRICS summit in South Africa last week and said he is not planning to attend the G20 summit in New Delhi next month. Putin last visited China in February 2022 before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Neither the Kremlin nor China’s Foreign Ministry commented on the matter. Bloomberg
FSB Helicopter Crashes in Chelyabinsk. Russian authorities said an Mi-8 helicopter belonging to Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) crashed in the southwestern Chelyabinsk region on Tuesday, killing three crew members. Chelyabinsk governor Alexey Teksler said the crash took place near the village of Krasnoye Pole and that there were no civilian casualties or damage to residential buildings. Russian aviation services said the helicopter was on a training flight. Kyiv Independent
Asia and Oceania
China Developing Submarine Detection Method Based on 6G Technology. Chinese researchers are reportedly testing the world’s first submarine-detecting terahertz device based on next-generation 6G communication technology. Scientists involved in the project say the device identifies small vibrations on the ocean’s surface as small as 10 nanometers tall produced by the low-frequency sound radiated from a submarine traveling at high speed. Researchers say the waves can not only provide information on the location of a submarine, but also noise signature and submarine model. Scientists add that the device could be small enough to mount on a drone and supplement other submarine detection methods. The technology also has potential applications for submarine communication. South China Morning Post
China’s Defense Chief Pledges More Military Cooperation With Africa. Chinese defense minister Li Shangfu said on Tuesday that the Chinese military will cooperate more closely with African militaries in joint drills and training and peacekeeping missions. Speaking at the China-Africa Peace and Security Forum in Beijing, Li said expanded military cooperation will promote stability and will be conducted under “the principle of seeing each other as equals” and “the tradition of helping each other.” China has worked with African countries to counter pirates, militias and terrorists, in part to protect Chinese investments and nationals working in Africa. Many African officials also get military training in China. South China Morning Post
China Calls for Britain to Build Relationship Based on Mutual Respect Ahead of Foreign Secretary’s Visit. China’s foreign ministry called on Britain to cooperate with Beijing and pursue a relationship based on “mutual respect” to promote global stability and peace. The ministry’s comments came ahead of British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly’s planned visit to Beijing on Wednesday. The British foreign ministry said Cleverly is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi and China’s vice president Han Zheng during his one-day visit. The ministry said Cleverly will raise British interests in international security and human rights and global problems like climate change. South China Morning Post
India Lodges Protest With China Over Map of Disputed Territory. India lodged a strong protest with China over a new official “standard map” it released. Indian media said the map shows the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh and the Aksai Chin plateau as Chinese territory. China claims Arunachal Pradesh in the eastern Himalayas as part of southern Tibet, while India claims the China-controlled Aksai Chin plateau in the western Himalayas. Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said the map showed “absurd claims” on India’s territory. Relations between Beijing and New Delhi have plummeted in recent years over disputes along their border in the Himalayas. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
Israel’s Netanyahu Orders Approval of Secret Talks Amid Libya Scandal. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday ordered all ministries to have secret diplomatic meetings approved by his office in advance. Netanyahu also ordered that any publication of such covert talks be personally approved by him. The move comes after Israel’s announcement of an encounter between the Israeli and Libyan foreign ministries sparked protests across Libya and made Libyan Foreign Minister Najla Mangoush flee to Turkey over safety concerns. The drama underscores remaining challenges despite the recent warming of ties between Israel and Arab neighbors. Associated Press
Sub Saharan Africa
Algeria Proposes Niger Transition. Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf said on Tuesday that Algeria is proposing a six-month transition led by a civilian in Niger. When announcing his proposal, Attaf, who recently toured West African countries, said “most of the countries we have talked to are against military intervention to end the crisis.” He added that an arrangement would include a UN conference to restore constitutional order, set guarantees for all sides and host a Sahel region development conference. Algeria, which has repeatedly said it also is against military intervention, has spoken three times with the Niger junta leadership, which is seeking a transition period of up to three years. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
Chinese Law Enforcement Conducts World’s Largest Known Online Influence Campaign. Meta Tuesday reported that it has tied Chinese law enforcement to a covert influence operation that created thousands of fake Facebook accounts, which have now been removed. Meta said its findings reveal this to be the world’s largest known “cross-platform” influence operation, with links to the long-running “Spamouflage” campaign, generating pro-Chinese messages across Facebook, Instagram and other online platforms. Despite the operation’s size, Meta said its influence methods were of “very low quality,” often failing to reach intended audiences in Taiwan, the U.S., Japan, and other countries. The messaging was spread across more than 50 platforms, ranging from the company formerly known as Twitter, to YouTube, TikTok, Medium and Meta-owned platforms, including Facebook. Despite the campaign’s attempts to conceal identities and its efforts at coordination, Meta confirmed “links to individuals associated with Chinese law enforcement.” Meta described the campaign as geographically dispersed across China but receiving Internet support and directions on content from a centralized source. The clusters’ operations indicated they were operated by groups in shared office space, with bursts of activity in mid-morning and early afternoon and “a final burst of activity in the evening.” Notwithstanding the campaign’s size and resources, it does not appear to have been all that effective, although the Department of Justice has reported disturbing attempts to harass family members of Chinese nationals abroad who have been critical of Beijing. The Record CyberScoop Axios Meta Reuters
Russian Media Disinformation Campaign Spreads Anti-Ukraine Themes in U.S. A new Russian disinformation campaign is disseminating fake reports masquerading as Washington Post and Fox News articles with the apparent goal of undermining Western support for Ukraine. The latest threat report from Meta describes the disinformation effort as an expansion into the United States of media spoofing tactics used previously in Germany, France, and Ukraine. Meta identified Structura National Technology and Social Design Agency, which previously had been sanctioned by the EU, as the organizations behind Russia’s “largest and most aggressively persistent covert influence operation” since 2017. Meta notes that “some of these spoofs were particularly elaborate,” including one that posed as a Washington Post report on “a faked Russian-language video which purported to show President Zelensky admitting that he was a puppet of the CIA.” The fake Post account bore the byline of an actual journalist employed by the newspaper. The Russian “Doppelganger” influence operation has persisted despite Meta’s numerous interventions and “continuous scrutiny by platforms and researchers.” Meta said the operation illustrates “how bad actors use malicious domains to insulate themselves from enforcement.” A particular problem Meta cited was its inability to access domain name registration details that may shield abusive domains. The Record
Japan Cybersecurity Agency Suffers Months-Long Email System Breach. Japan’s national cybersecurity agency has been penetrated by hackers in an operation that may have exposed sensitive data over a period as long as nine months. Sources report that China-linked hackers are believed to have conducted the campaign against Japan’s National Center of Incident Readiness and Strategy for Cybersecurity (NISC) that began last fall until its detection in June. NISC has said the breach appeared to have originated through a staff member’s email account. The agency has notified private and government organizations in Japan and abroad about a possible data compromise. A NISC official said the agency’s investigation concluded only information on the email system was exposed. An informed source said the linkage to Chinese hackers is not definitive, but “given the style of attack and the nature of the target itself, we can say with almost complete certainty that this originated with a state actor, and that the actor was most probably China.” China’s foreign affairs ministry has rejected claims Beijing was behind the attack, urging Tokyo to look instead at the U.S., which it said was known for spying on allies. Financial Times The Record
Microsoft President Discusses Need for AI Guardrails, Proper Use in Workplace. Microsoft President Brad Smith reiterated warnings about the potential for AI to be weaponized and the need for the technology to be corralled and governed. Speaking in an interview with CNBC, Smith noted that every technology can be both a tool and a weapon and for that reason “we have to ensure that AI remains subject to human control.” Human beings, according to Smith, need to maintain leverage over AI especially where it is used to automate processes, as in critical infrastructure. “We need to ensure that we have humans in control, that we can slow things down or turn things off,” he said. Abuse or malicious applications of AI makes it necessary not only for companies “to do the right thing,” Smith said, but also the creation of laws and regulations to “ensure that there are safety breaks. As for the technology’s impacts on workforces, Smith described AI as a tool to supplement human work, not replace jobs. “It is a tool that can help people think smarter and faster. The biggest mistake people could make is to think that this is a tool that will enable people to stop thinking,” Smith explained, adding, “that’s why at Microsoft we call our services co-pilots.” CNBC
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