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5:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 26, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel Says Top Planner Behind Hamas Attacks Killed.  Israel’s military said it killed Hamas’s deputy head of intelligence, Shadi Barud, in an air strike on Thursday.  The Israeli military said Barud was a key planner behind Hamas’s October 7 attacks along with Yahya Sinwar, the top Hamas leader in Gaza.  Hamas has not publicly commented on the claim about Barud.  Bloomberg 

Hamas Delegation Visits Moscow.  A delegation of Hamas arrived in Moscow on Thursday.  Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova confirmed the visit without providing further details.  Hamas also reported the visit on their Telegram channel, saying that the delegation was headed by Moussa Abu Marzouk, Hamas’s senior political member, and that it met with Mikhail Bogdanov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and President’s Special Representative for the Middle East.  Hamas said the delegation praised “active Russian diplomacy” and called for international support against Israel’s “crime of genocide.”  Ukraine has expressed full solidarity with Israel following the Hamas attacks while Russia has been more critical of Israel’s retaliatory airstrikes in Gaza.  Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov has said Hamas’s drone tactics are similar to Russian drone tactics in Ukraine, suggesting that Moscow may have been involved in training Hamas fighters.  Ukrainian military intelligence has also accused Russia of sending Western-made weapons captured in Ukraine to Hamas to discredit Kyiv.  Kyiv Independent Washington Post 

Qatar Agrees to Reassess Hamas Ties.  The U.S. and Qatar have reportedly agreed to revisit Qatar’s ties with Hamas after the current Gaza hostage crisis is resolved.  Diplomats say that the agreement was established at a recent meeting between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, in Doha.  It is unclear if this reassessment of relations will include the withdrawal of Hamas leaders of Qatar or similar steps.  Hamas has long maintained a political office in Doha.  The agreement is seen as an effort by the Biden administration to balance rescuing hostages that Hamas took during its attacks on Israel with isolating the militant group.  Washington Post

Iran Claims Hamas Ready for Prisoner Swap.  Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian claimed on Thursday that Hamas is prepared to free civilian hostages in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners.  Speaking at the United Nations, Amirabdollahian said “the world should support the release of 6,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons.”  Bloomberg

Iran Warns U.S. Over Continued Israeli Attacks on Gaza, Biden Warns Tehran Against Targeting U.S. Forces.  Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian also warned at the U.N. that if Israel’s attacks on the Gaza Strip do not end, the U.S. will “not be spared from this fire.”  He said that Tehran does not want an expansion of the Israel-Hamas conflict but threatened U.S. involvement if the “genocide in Gaza continues,” possibly referring to further attacks by Iranian-backed groups on U.S. forces in the region.  Meanwhile, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that President Joe Biden gave a “direct message” to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning against attacks on U.S. troops in the Middle East.  Kirby did not elaborate further, though his comments came after Biden said he warned Khamenei that the U.S. “will respond” to further moves against U.S. forces, adding that “it has nothing to do with Israel.”  U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq have come under missile and drone attacks in the days since the Hamas attacks.  Reuters Reuters 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

U.S. Announces New $150 Million Military Aid Package for Ukraine.  The U.S. Department of Defense announced on Thursday that it is sending a $150 million military aid package to Ukraine.  The aid package includes air defense capabilities, artillery shells, and anti-tank weapons.  Specifics include ammunition for National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), U.S. air defense missiles of AIM-9M and Stinger types, Javelin anti-armor systems, night vision devices, and cold weather gear.  Kyiv Independent U.S. Department of Defense

Denmark Donates $520 Million in Military Aid to Ukraine.  The Danish Defense Ministry announced on Thursday that it is sending a 3.7 billion Danish kroner ($520 million) military aid package to Ukraine.  The aid includes T-72EA tanks, BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, artillery shells, drones, and small arms.  The ministry said the package also includes engineering and recovery vehicles co-financed by Germany.  Kyiv Independent Ukrinform

Ukraine Develops New Remote-Controlled Anti-Tank Drone.  The Ukrainian military has developed a new unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) designed to carry explosives under armored vehicles.  The project’s spokesperson, Viktoriia Kovalchuk, said the UGV, named Ratel S or Honey Badger, is meant to be used as a “mobile warhead that carries anti-tank mines or other explosive devices,” adding that it can run for 40-50 minutes at an average speed.  Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said the Ratel S has passed field tests and has been put into mass production.  The Ratel S was developed under the Brave1 government initiative, which was launched in April to develop defense tech innovations for the Ukrainian military.  Kyiv Independent Kyiv Post

Ukraine Says Russia ‘Massively’ Recruiting Cuban Fighters.  Ukraine’s National Resistance Center claims that Russia is “massively” recruiting Cuban mercenaries to fight in Ukraine and that Cuban fighters are allegedly fighting around Bakhmut and Kupiansk.  The center said Ukrainian activists hacked in the email of a Russian military official and discovered emails showing that almost 200 Cubans had been recruited for the Russian armed forces.  A joint investigation with Ukrainian open-source intelligence initiative InformNapalm found the identities and information of Cubans allegedly recruited to fight for Russia in Ukraine.  The Cuban Foreign Affairs Ministry previously said it discovered a human trafficking network to recruit people to fight for Russia.  Kyiv Independent National Resistance Center

Romania Installs Anti-Drone System at Ukraine Border.  Romania’s President Klaus Iohanis said Thursday that the country installed an anti-drone system at the Danube River near its border with Ukraine. Bucharest has been tightening security on its borders as Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian ports have resulted in some debris falling onto Romanian soil. Iohanis added that the radar system with the new defenses can now detect targets at a much lower altitude than before. Previously, Bucharest had installed additional security measures on its borders such as bomb shelters and issuing air raid warnings in response to the Russian attacks on the Ukrainian side.  Kyiv Independent

Ukraine Says Black Sea Corridor Still Operating.  Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said on Thursday that Ukraine’s Black Sea corridor is still operating, denying reports that shipments through the corridor were temporarily suspended due to Russian sea mines and increased Russian warplane activity in the area.  Kubrakov said any information on disruptions to civilian vessel traffic through the corridor is “false.”  Ukraine launched the “humanitarian corridor,” which runs close to the coastlines of Romania and Bulgaria in the western Black Sea, to revive its grain exports after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal.  Ukrainian officials and shipping data shows that over 40 ships have used the corridor, delivering over 1.5 million metric tons of cargo — including around 700,000 tons of grain — from Ukrainian ports since August.  Reuters 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Israel Reportedly Enlisting Spyware, Surveillance Companies in War Effort.  Two Israeli spyware firms, NSO Group and Candiru, are being tapped by Israeli security services to use their surveillance and tracking capabilities to aid Israel Defense Forces (IDF).  Haaretz, a Jerusalem newspaper, reports that surveillance companies Rayzone and Paragon are also involved in the assistance to the IDF.  No details are available on the ways the companies’ products and services might be used, although speculation has risen about helping in tracking hostages taken by Hamas.  The Israel Defense Ministry has not yet responded to requests for comment, and the IDF and NSO Group declined to comment.  Candiru said in a statement that it is ready to assist the war effort in any way needed.  Bloomberg

UK’s Sunak Outlines Plans for AI Safety Institute, Expert Panel as Summit Approaches.  Britain’s prime minister announced plans Thursday for a new AI safety institute as well as the formation of a global AI expert panel that he will propose at the AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park next week.  Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s speech said the safety institute will “carefully examine, evaluate and test new types of AI” to determine the threats new models pose in a range from bias and misinformation through “the most extreme risks.”  Some findings of the institute will be made publicly available, but other insights with sensitive national security implications would be restricted to “a smaller group of like-minded governments.”  Sunak said the goal of these efforts is “to secure the safety of models before they are released.”  Sunak also noted he will call on participants in next week’s summit to form a global expert panel that will “publish a state of AI science report.”  Regarding his decision to invite Chinese representatives to the summit, Sunak said “there can be no serious strategy for AI without at least trying to engage all of the world's leading AI powers.”  Politico Reuters Financial Times

China Accelerating Efforts To Develop ‘Domestic Substitution’ for Western Technology.  China is accelerating efforts and funding for domestic alternatives to Western technology, according to Reuters examination of government tenders, research documents, and interviews with several sources. The domestic substitution effort is revealed in details Reuters has reviewed from tenders issued by Chinese government, military, and state-linked enterprises.  Telecommunications and financial sectors are likely next investment targets for Beijing, following on heavy Chinese spending for computer equipment.  Of special concern to China are digital payments, which it believes are susceptible to Western hacking, thereby creating a priority area for domestic development.  Reuters notes that tenders from enterprises, government, and military entities rose to 235 from 119 in about the last 12 months.  Analysts note that China cannot completely replace some technologies with homegrown alternatives because it lacks advanced chip-manufacturing capabilities.  Kendra Schaefer, head of tech policy research at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China, recalls that earlier domestic substitution efforts faltered because the country lacked the "technical chops to pull off localization until now, and to a certain extent they still kind of don't.”  Reuters

Chinese Tech Firms’ Search for Still-Available Nvidia Chips Intensifies.  Chinese electronics firms are intensifying efforts to acquire and stockpile Nvidia chips in the wake of U.S. stems to further restrict exports of crucial graphics processing units (GPU’s).  A Shenzhen firm, Xiamen Hongxin, informed investors Wednesday that it is “stepping up communication with multiple Nvidia distributors” to secure the chip manufacturer’s products.  Hongxin noted that it does not deal directly with Nvidia but did not describe the state of its contacts with distributors.  The company noted that it would need to turn to domestic AI chip alternatives in the event access to Nvidia chips is completely blocked off.  Inspur, the leading Chinese server manufacturer and a Nvidia product distributor, said it is stockpiling supplies although it would not characterize inventory holdings.  The Financial Times reported in August that taken together, the value of 2023 orders for 100,000 Nvidia A800 chips from Tencent Holdings, ByteDance, Baidu, and Alibaba totals $1 billion, with an additional $4 billion in GPU orders planned for 2024.  South China Morning Post

U.S., Australia Announce Trilateral Commitment with Japan To Boost Defense Technology.  The U.S., Australia, and Japan have agreed to cooperate on advanced defense technology as part of a strategy to against Chinese expansion in the Indo-Pacific region.  The agreement was announced in a meeting between President Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who is visiting Washington.  The trilateral agreement will include enhancing interoperability and accelerating technology transfer for unmanned aerial systems.  Australia also will begin participation in two U.S.-Japanese military drills, both in Japan.  At a press conference on Wednesday , Biden expressed confidence that Congress will approve funding for nuclear-powered submarines the U.S. has pledged to Australia as part of the AUKUS security alliance created in 2021.  The U.S. and Australia also said they would strengthen joint efforts on a range of issues, including advanced technology and climate, as well as infrastructure support for Pacific Island nations.  South China Morning Post

Casino Hackers Employed Violent Threats, Phishing Techniques To Breach Targets.  The hacking group tracked as Octo Tempest (aka Scattered Spider), which is made up of hackers in their teens and early 20’s, made use of violent threats against support desk staffers in their recent campaign against several Las Vegas casinos.  While employing social engineering tactics to trick technical staff into exposing system or access credentials, the group also made violent threats against individuals, including a text message threatening a target’s wife, according to Microsoft researchers.  Octo Tempest emerged from a cyber community known as “the Com” encompassing various subgroups and cliques involved in in account takeovers, SIM swapping, cryptocurrency thefts, and occasionally violence for hire.  Microsoft describes the group as “one of the most dangerous financial criminal groups” in cyberspace today.  Researchers note that it has conducted “broad social engineering campaigns to compromise organizations across the globe.”  CyberScoop  The Record

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Asia and Oceania

Australian PM Urges U.S. Congress to Approve AUKUS Legislation.  Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met with the new U.S. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson on Thursday and expressed his hope that the U.S. Congress will pass legislation pertaining to the AUKUS submarine project by the end of this year.  AUKUS aims to sell U.S. nuclear-powered submarines and provide nuclear propulsion technology to Australia. The deal between the U.S., U.K. and Australia is the largest defense project in Australian history and a response to China’s growing influence in the Pacific.  President Joe Biden Biden told Albanese on Wednesday that both Congress understands the strategic value of AUKUS and also urged Congress to pass his administration's legislation to facilitate the project this year.  Australia Broadcasting Corp Reuters

Middle East

Syria Reports Drone Attacks on Hama After Opposition Says Attacks Hit Idlib.  Syrian state media reports that the Syrian military shot down eight drones near Hama and Aleppo in northwestern Syria on Thursday.  The military said three people were killed in the drone attacks.  The army said the drones were launched from the direction of the rebel-controlled city of Idlib.  The announcement came hours after opposition forces accused the army of rocket attacks on Idlib, which rebel sources said killed at least four people.  Reuters

Africa

Sudan’s RSF Claims to Take Country’s Second Largest City.  The Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan claimed that they seized the second largest city in the country, Nyala, on Thursday.  RSF said it took over the main army base in Nyala and seized all military equipment there.  RSF’s capture of Nyala, the capital of the South Darfur state in western Sudan, could mark a turning point in the war with Sudan’s army.  Nyala is a trade hub that analysts say could act as a base for the RSF.  The Sudanese army did not comment on RSF’s claim.  The claim also could not be immediately independently verified.  BBC Reuters

U.S. Senate Overwhelmingly Rejects Bill for Withdrawal of U.S. Forces from Niger.  The Senate voted 86-11 against a bill that would require President Joe Biden to withdraw U.S. troops from Niger.  Senator Rand Paul (R-KY), who sponsored the bill, said that the troops had been improperly deployed without congressional approval and that Americans should not be risking their lives in Niger following the country’s coup earlier this year.  Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD), the Democratic chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, countered that if the U.S. withdraws its forces, it may create a power vacuum that could be filled by Russia or its Wagner mercenaries.  There are currently around 1,000 Department of Defense personnel in Niger, which had previously been a key partner in the fight against Islamist extremists in the Sahel region.  U.S. troops have trained Nigerien forces and operate two military bases in the country.  Reuters Defense News Washington Examiner

Ethiopia PM Ahmed Dismisses Invasion Concerns.  Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said Thursday that Ethiopia will not invade any nation.  His comments aim to address neighboring countries’ concerns that landlocked Ethiopia will use force to secure access to a sea port.  Abiy previously said that Ethiopia would assert its right to access the Red Sea as much as possible through peaceful means, raising tensions with in the region.  Eritrea, which gained its independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after a lengthy civil war, called Abiy’s comments “excessive.”  Both countries reportedly moved troops closer to their border after his remarks, raising concerns about new conflict.  Eritrea and Ethiopia fought together in the Tigray war, but relations soured after Eritrea was excluded from peace talks with Tigrayan forces, and because some Eritrean troops still remain in Tigray.  Reuters AfricaNews

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