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5:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 19, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israeli Defense Minister Signals Ground Invasion of Gaza to Start Soon.  Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant signaled that Israel would start its ground invasion of Gaza soon, though he did not specify when exactly it will start.  In a meeting with Israeli troops on the Gaza border on Thursday, Gallant told them to “get organized, be ready” and promised that they will see “the inside” of Gaza.  Gallant added that the invasion will likely be long and hard.  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later posted a video of himself meeting troops near Gaza promising victory.  Israel has vowed to destroy Hamas following the militant group’s October 7 attacks.  Associated Press Reuters

U.S. Navy Warship Intercepts Missiles, Drones Fired from Yemen Towards Israel.  The Pentagon said on Thursday that the destroyer U.S.S. Carney shot down three land attack cruise missiles and several drones launched from Yemen and headed north along the Red Sea, potentially towards Israel.  Pentagon press secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder said the missiles and drones were launched by Houthi forces and downed over the water.  Ryder said the missiles and drones were downed because they “posed a potential threat” and that no U.S. forces or civilians were injured in the incident.  A U.S. official said they do not believe the Carney was targeted.  The Iranian-backed Houthis have expressed support for the Palestinians amid the Israel-Hamas conflict and has warned the U.S. from intervening.  Houthi officials declined to comment on the interceptions of the missiles and drones.  Associated Press ABC News CNN

U.S. Sending Two Iron Dome Systems Back to Israel.  U.S. officials say the Pentagon is planning to send two Iron Dome missile systems it purchased from Israel back to bolster Israeli defenses against missile attacks. The Department of Defense reportedly told members of Congress in a briefing Wednesday that it planned to lease the systems back to Israel, with the U.S. still retaining ownership, and that the transfer could occur within a couple of days. The Pentagon had previously been considering testing the systems in Guam to defend against potential Chinese missile attacks. This comes as the White House announced Monday that it expected to fulfill additional security requests from Israel as quickly as possible such as the replenishment of interceptors used by Israel’s Iron Dome system and other ammunition, as well as boosting U.S. military presence in the region.  Axios Reuters Times of Israel

Senior U.S. General Meets Egyptian President to Discuss Aid for Gaza.  U.S. Army General Michael Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, made an unannounced trip to Egypt on Thursday to meet President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to discuss getting aid into the Gaza Strip.  President Joe Biden said the U.S. reached a deal with Israel and Egypt to let 20 trucks of humanitarian aid into Gaza through the Rafah crossing.  Egypt has said Israeli air strikes on the Gaza side have kept the crossing inoperable.  U.S. officials said aid would go through the crossing as early as Friday once roads are repaired.  The World Health Organization said much more aid is needed and is aiming to get 100 trucks of aid into Gaza daily.  CNN Reuters

China’s Xi Calls for Israel-Hamas Ceasefire, Offers to Work with Arab States on Solution.  Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday called for an immediate ceasefire between Israeli forces and Hamas and said Beijing is willing to work with Arab countries to mediate a “lasting solution” to the crisis.  He also said China believes the two-state solution is “the fundamental way out.”  Xi made his remarks when meeting Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly at the sidelines of the Belt and Road Forum this week.  China’s foreign ministry added that Xi told Madbouly that Egypt is taking an important role in de-escalating the Israel-Hamas crisis.  China has been seeking to frame itself as a mediator in the Middle East.  South China Morning Post

Up to 6 Chinese Warships in Middle East Amid Israel-Hamas Conflict.  Up to six Chinese warships have reportedly been operating in the Middle East over the past week.  The Chinese defense ministry website said the 44th naval escort task force has been in the area since May and visited Oman for several days last week for joint exercises with the Omani navy.  Chinese state media said the task force left Muscat on Saturday for an unspecified destination.  The task force, from the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater, includes a Type 052D guided-missile destroyer, a frigate and an integrated supply ship.  It was reportedly involved in escort missions for shipping in the region before handing over its mission to the 45th escort task force earlier this month.  The new task force, from the PLA’s Northern Theater, also includes an 052D destroyer, frigate and supply ship.  China has not announced it is evacuating its nationals from Israel, though the foreign ministry advised Chinese citizens to leave on commercial flights.  China has previously used escort warships that make up the mentioned convoys for evacuations in the Middle East.  The U.S. sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean following the Hamas attacks in Israel.  A second carrier strike group is enroute to the area.  South China Morning Post

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Reports Some Progress on Southern Front.  The Ukrainian military said it has made some progress on the southern front against Russian forces.  A Ukrainian military spokesperson said Ukrainian troops advanced 0.25 miles southwest of Verbove in the Zaporizhzhia region, noting that advances in the area remain difficult due to Russian minefields and entrenched defenses.  The Institute for the Study of War added that Ukrainian troops appeared to have broken through the left bank of the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region, though Ukraine’s military did not comment on that report.  Elsewhere, Ukrainian forces say they continue to face attacks by Russian troops near the eastern towns of Kupiansk and Avdiivka.  Officials say Russia’s attacks on the eastern front are aimed at drawing Ukrainian forces from elsewhere.  Kyiv Independent Reuters

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Says Expecting More ATACMS Deliveries, First F-16s at Start of 2024.  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Thursday that the U.S. will continue regularly delivering Army Tactical Missiles Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine, adding that he hopes future deliveries will include newer versions of ATACMS that have a range of up to around 186 miles.  Ukraine confirmed that it used the first U.S.-supplied ATACMS this week to strike Russian military airfields.  The ATACMS that Ukraine currently has from the U.S. have a range up to around 100 miles.  Separately, Kuleba said he is “optimistic” that Ukraine will receive the first F-16 fighter jets at the beginning of 2024.  He noted that there are still some obstacles on the delivery of the jets, including pilot training.  Kyiv Independent Reuters

Russia Says U.K. Military Planes Intercepted Over Black Sea.  Russia’s Defense Ministry says two Russian Su-27 fighter jets intercepted two Typhoon fighter jets and RC-135 reconnaissance a plane from the U.K.’s Royal Air Force (RAF) on Thursday.  The ministry said the British planes were approaching the Russian border from the Black Sea and turned around once the Russian jets approached.  The RAF did not immediately comment on or confirm the reported incident.  Russian military aircraft have engaged in aggressive actions in the Black Sea when encountering Western military aircraft in recent months.  In March, a Russian Su-27 jet flew into the path of a U.S. Reaper drone over international waters in the Black Sea, damaging it and forcing it to crash.  Kyiv Independent Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

​​DoD ‘China Military Power’ Report Focuses on Growth of PLA Nuclear Arsenal.  The Pentagon’s latest “China Military Power” report reveals that China constructed at least 300 ICBM silos in 2022 and possibly is contemplating development of a new conventional missile capable of reaching the western U.S.  Covering events from 2022 into 2023, the report spotlights the PLA’s expansion of its nuclear weapons capabilities.   As of May 2023, China’s arsenal exceeded 500 operational nuclear warheads, with the likelihood of increasing to more than 1,000 warheads by 2030.  The report notes that China may be considering development of a new, conventionally armed, intercontinental range missile system.  According to a senior defense official, such a move would signal an expansion of China’s short-range ballistic missile program.  The official said that this possible development “highlights the importance of having … direct conversations between the U.S. and the PRC on these topics, which we’ll continue to pursue.”  Regarding Taiwan, the report does not express concerns over prospects for an imminent invasion, but does note the PLA’s “increased provocative and destabilizing actions” around the Taiwan Strait.  The report also notes that the combined aerial assets of China’s army and navy represent the largest aviation force in the Indo-Pacific, with the army air force continuing to modernize with domestically built aircraft and a wide range of aerial drones.  BreakingDefense DefenseScoop Defense News Nikkei Asia

U.S. Cyber Advisor Highlights North Korean Use of AI To Build Cyberwarfare Power.  Anne Neuberger, deputy national security advisor for cyber, told a media briefing on Wednesday that North Korea increasingly is employing AI to increase the sophistication of its cyberwarfare capabilities.  The trend for North Korean and other nation-state and criminal threat actors, Neuberger said, is to “try to use AI models to help accelerate writing malicious software and finding systems to exploit.”  Using AI capabilities to accelerate writing “exploit” codes could be a substantial boost to North Korean cyber campaigns and allow the country’s hackers to more efficiently identify and target system vulnerabilities.  Neuberger pointed out that one way the U.S. is responding to these threats is by mobilizing U.S. programmers through the DARPA AI Cyber Challenge, which aims “to incentivize and jumpstart defensive hackers using AI to build cybersecurity defenses.”  VentureBeat TechRadar

UK Draft Communique for AI Safety Summit Seeks Global Role in Controls, Advances.  A draft communique to be circulated for approval at the upcoming AI Safety Summit in Britain proposes to acknowledge that the technology is capable of triggering “catastrophic harm.”  UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is seeking to build a global understanding and approach to developing and controlling AI.  While spotlighting dangers, the document draft also speaks to AI’s “transformative opportunities” in areas like health, education, and clean energy.  Over 100 representatives from 28 nations are expected to attend the summit November 1-2, including government officials, tech executives, and technology experts.  The Bletchley Park gathering kicks off Sunak’s campaign to position Britain as an AI governance leader with influence of global regulatory approaches and technology guardrails.  The summit document also proposes a call by world leaders for increased transparency by commercial AI developers, with “clear evaluation metrics, tools for safety testing, and developing relevant public sector capability and scientific research.”  In a related development, Britain also plans to use the occasion of the summit to announce an AI international advisory group.  People briefed on the government’s thinking said the proposed group would help to build knowledge of AI capabilities and risks through the efforts of a rotating cast of academics and regional experts who would produce an annual report on cutting-edge developments in AI.  Britain hopes to schedule follow-up meetings on progress toward managing AI opportunities and risks every six months.  Bloomberg Financial Times

Ukrainian Hacktivists Take Down Trigona Ransomware Site, Exfiltrate Gang Data.  A Ukrainian hacktivist group, the Ukrainian Cyber Alliance (UCA), has breached the servers of the Trigona ransomware gang, defaced its website, and exfiltrated data from the gang’s files.  The UCA claims data extracted from the threat actor’s systems includes source code and database records, which may contain decryption keys.  A UCA member identified as herm1t published screenshots of the ransomware gang's internal support documents and told BleepingComputer the group also exfiltrated the developer environment and cryptocurrency hot wallets.   After harvesting all of Trigona’s available data, UCA deleted and defaced their sites and shared the key for the administration panel site.  Previously, the UCA claimed responsibility for twice hacking the Russian Ministry of Defense in 2016 and leaking public defense contracts and confidential data.  Trigona operations were first observed in June 2022 and its ransomware targets were primarily tech, healthcare, and banking companies in the U.S., India, Israel, Turkey, Brazil and Italy.  BleepingComputer The Record

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

China Arrested Japanese National on Espionage Charges in March.  Nikkei Asia reported on Thursday that Chinese authorities formally arrested a Japanese man who has been detained since March on espionage charges.  Chinese authorities reportedly detained him for “espionage activities and violating anti-espionage law,” but has not disclosed specific charges.  The man, who was an employee at drugmaker Astellas Pharma in Beijing, was placed in criminal detention in mid-September.  China notified the Japanese Embassy in Beijing about the man who was arrested.  The Japanese Embassy said it has met with the man six times to check on his health and is calling for his early release.  Nikkei Asia

Large Number of Canadian Diplomats Leave India.  The Canadian Broadcasting Corp reported on Thursday that many Canadian diplomats left India in the last 24 hours, the latest development in the dispute between Ottawa and New Delhi over the killing of a Sikh separatist leader on Canadian soil.  Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused Indian government agents of potentially being behind the killing, which India denies.  As part of its response, India last month asked Canada to reduce its diplomatic presence.  The Financial Times reported earlier this month that India asked Canada to withdraw 41 of its 62 diplomats from the country by October 10.  CBC Reuters

Drones Target U.S. Troops in Syria.  The U.S. military downed two drones targeting U.S. troops in Syria on Thursday.  U.S. officials said the attack occurred on Wednesday against U.S. forces at the Al-Tanf base, near Syria’s borders with Iraq and Jordan, and caused some minor injuries.  Officials did not say who they believed to be behind the attack.  Iranian-backed Lebanese TV station Al Mayadeen said that two U.S. military bases in Syria came under attack, reporting a drone attack on the Al-Tanf base and a missile attack on the Conoco base in the northern Deir al-Zor region.  U.S. forces in Iraq were targeted by drones on Wednesday.  The U.S. currently has 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria to advise local forces on combating and containing the Islamic State.  Associated Press Politico Reuters

Venezuela Releases Five Prisoners After Election Deal with Opposition.  Venezuelan authorities released five prisoners, including opposition figures, on Thursday after Venezuela’s government and political opposition agreed to a deal on a presidential election in 2024.  The U.S. eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil and gas industry in response to the election deal, which stipulates that an internationally monitored presidential election will be held in the second half of 2024 but did not include requirements for the reinstatement of barred opposition candidates.  U.S. officials had reportedly given the Venezuelan government until the end of November to lift bans on opposition political candidates and start releasing political prisoners and Americans deemed “wrongfully detained” to maintain the sanctions relief.  The U.S. State Department did not immediately comment on the reported releases.  Reuters

U.S. Working on Opening Migrant Processing Center in Ecuador.  In an effort to curb illegal migration, the U.S. said Thursday that it is working with Ecuador to open up offices in the Latin American nation in the “coming weeks” to help migrants apply for legal entry.  The U.S. State Department said that such offices are already operating in Colombia, Costa Rica, and Guatemala to expedite the refugee, humanitarian, and employment processing.  The Ecuador office is expected to focus on Cuban, Haitian, Nicaraguan, Venezuelan, and Colombian asylum seekers in Ecuador, according to the State Department’s website.  The announcement comes as President Joe Biden has expanded a range of new legal pathways for migrants to enter the U.S. while embracing some more restrictive border policies adopted under the Trump administration.  Additionally, the Biden administration announced that it would be opening up a new family reunification process for Ecuadorian nationals with relatives in the U.S.  CBS News Reuters

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