5:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 12, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
TOP STORIES
U.S. Must Be Ready for Simultaneous Wars with China, Russia, Commission Warns. A report from the congressionally appointed Strategic Posture Commission released on Thursday warns that the U.S. must prepare for possible simultaneous wars with Russia and China. The report calls for the U.S. to bolster its conventional forces, strengthen alliances and enhance its nuclear weapons modernization program to prepare for such a conflict scenario. Specific nuclear expansions include upgrades for all warheads, delivery systems and infrastructure; the production of more B-21 stealth bombers and new Columbia-class nuclear submarines; and the deployment of more tactical nuclear weapons in Asia and Europe. It adds that Chinese and Russian threats will become acute between 2027-2035, so decisions must be made now to prepare. The report comes amid escalating tensions with China over Taiwan and as Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine. A senior official involved in the report declined to say if intelligence briefings showed Russian and Chinese cooperation in nuclear weapons, though the official said there is concern of “ultimate coordination” that leads to the “two-war construct.” The report counters the current U.S. national security strategy which calls for winning one conflict while deterring another. It also contrasts President Joe Biden’s position that the current U.S. nuclear arsenal is sufficient to deter both Russia and China. Additionally, the report’s recommendations require massive increases in defense spending. Reuters Strategic Posture Commission
Chinese General with Combat Experience is Reportedly Top Contender to Be New Defense Minister. General Liu Zhenli, Chief of the Joint Staff Department of China’s Central Military Commission (CMC), is reportedly a frontrunner to be China’s new defense minister, according to sources familiar with the matter. The current defense minister Li Shangfu has not been seen in public for over six weeks. Li is reportedly under investigation for corruption in a previous role in military procurement. Analysts say that while China’s defense minister is a largely diplomatic role that is subservient to other CMC officials and has no direct command authority, Liu’s appointment to the position could elevate it. He is currently head of the military body responsible for China’s military operations and planning and is one of few recent Chinese military leaders with combat experience, having been involved in border fights with Vietnam in 1986. Experts say Liu’s appointment could also facilitate military communication with the U.S., which have been blocked in part because defense minister Li was sanctioned by the U.S. in 2018 for his role in an arms deal with Russia. Sources say Air Force commander Chang Dingqiu would become Chief of the Joint Staff Department if Liu becomes defense minister. China’s defense ministry and State Council information office and the U.S. State Department did not respond to requests for comment on the matter. Reuters
U.S. Navy Reconnaissance Plane Transits Taiwan Strait. A U.S. P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine patrol aircraft flew through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday, marking the first such flight in three months. The U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet said the aircraft transited the Strait through international airspace, adding that the flight was in accordance with international law and demonstrated U.S. commitment to navigational rights and a free and open Indo-Pacific. A spokesperson for China’s Eastern Theater Command said the flight was “publicly hyped” and that the Chinese military deployed fighter jets to monitor the U.S. surveillance plane. South China Morning Post
ISRAEL HAMAS WAR
U.S. and Qatar Block Iran Access to Previously Unfrozen $6 Billion in Funds. The U.S. and Qatar are denying Iran access to the $6 billion in Iranian funds that had previously been released as part of a prisoner swap last month. The funds are located in a restricted bank account in Qatar and are meant to only be used for humanitarian purposes. Washington said it retained the right to completely freeze the account. Several U.S. media outlets reported that the U.S. and Qatar agreed to block Iran’s access to the money. The restriction comes after the attacks in Israel by Hamas, which is backed by Iran. Iran’s mission to the U.N. has denied that Tehran was involved in the Hamas attacks and has said the U.S. “cannot renege” on the deal reached over the funds. It did not say if Iran had tried to access the money. White House national security spokesman John Kirby said “every single dime of that money is still sitting in the Qatari bank.” The Qatari government and the U.S. Treasury Department did not comment on the matter. Wall Street Journal Washington Post Reuters
Israel Seeks to Dismantle Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that Israel seeks to dismantle Hamas by capturing or killing the group’s leaders, destroying its military units and making it impossible for the group to govern Gaza. Netanyahu vowed that Hamas would be “crushed” like ISIS was, adding that no country should harbor Hamas and that those who do should be sanctioned. Israel continues airstrikes on Gaza and has amassed 300,000 troops close to the territory, potentially for a ground invasion. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking next to Netanyahu, said Israel had the right to defend itself, but urged Israeli forces to avoid harming civilians, saying, “How Israel does this matters. We democracies distinguish ourselves from terrorists by striving for a different standard.” Israeli authorities say the Hamas attacks over the weekend killed 1,300 people in Israel. Gaza’s Health Ministry says retaliatory Israeli air strikes have killed 1,537 Palestinians. Reuters Wall Street Journal
Israeli Strikes Airports in Damascus, Aleppo. Syria said that Israeli missile strikes hit airports in the Syrian capital of Damascus and the northern city of Aleppo Thursday, damaging runways and putting them out of service. A military source was quoted by the Syrian state news agency (SANA) that “bursts of missiles” hit the two airports at the same time. The Israeli military did not comment on the reports. Sources said that the attacks were aimed to disrupt Iranian supply lines to Syria. The reported strikes came a day before Iran’s foreign minister, Houssein Amirabdollahian, was due to visit Syria. Additionally, Israeli troops fired artillery and mortar shells towards Syria after rockets from southern Syria hit Israeli positions across the border. Reuters BBC Al Jazeera
Britain Sends Auxiliary Ships, Surveillance Planes to Eastern Mediterranean. Britain is sending two Royal Navy auxiliary ships, P8 surveillance planes, three Neelin helicopters and a company of Royal Marines to the Eastern Mediterranean to support Israel and regional stability. Downing Street said the deployment will be on standby to provide “practical support” to Israel and bolster “deterrence and assurance” to “prevent further escalation.” UK military teams in Israel, Cyprus and other areas in the region are also being strengthened to support contingency plans. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak added that he has spoken with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on getting aid to Gaza and helping civilians leave the territory. Sunak is also set to discuss Israel, as well as continuing support for Ukraine, with Northern European leaders at the Joint Expeditionary Force defense meeting in Sweden on Friday. Reuters
Germany Allows Israel to Use Two Surveillance Drones. Germany is permitting Israel to use two Heron surveillance drones the German Air Force uses in the country. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Berlin is also in talks with Israel on providing ammunition for ships. Reuters
France Bans Pro-Palestine Demonstrations. French police have used teargas and water cannons to disperse pro-Palestine rallies in Paris on Thursday after French interior minister Gerald Daramanin banned such gatherings, saying they are “likely to generate disturbances to public order.” Despite the ban, hundreds of pro-Palestine demonstrators gathered in Paris in separate groups. French President Emmanuel Macron has called against “domestic divides” caused by the Israel-Hamas conflict and is urging “unity.” France has the largest Jewish and Muslim communities in Europe. Conflict in the Middle East has often stoked domestic tensions. French police added that they have arrested more than 20 people in dozens of anti-Semitic acts since Hamas’ attacks. Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukraine Says 59 Killed in Hroza Missile Strike. Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said Thursday that the death toll from the missile strike on the village of Hroza has risen to 59 after police identified all of the victims. Ukraine said that Russia targeted a cafe in the village as people gathered to mourn a fallen Ukrainian soldier. Moscow has denied deliberately targeting civilians. The strike was one of the deadliest for civilians since the start of the war. Ukraine’s SBU security service has accused two Ukrainian villagers of guiding the missile strike. Reuters
U.S. Sanctions Tankers Carrying Russian Crude Above Price Cap. The U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday that it sanctioned the owners of tankers carrying Russian crude oil priced above the G7’s price cap of $60 a barrel. The department said one tanker owned by a Turkey-based company was carrying Russian crude priced above $80 a barrel, while another tanker was carrying Russian crude above $75 a barrel. The department added that both tankers used U.S.-based service providers while transferring the oil. The cap bans Western companies from providing insurance, financing and shipping services to companies that transfer Russian oil above the price cap. Reuters
Ukraine, Russia React to Hamas Attacks in Israel to Shape Opinions. Ukraine and Russia are reacting to the Hamas attacks in Israel to bolster their diplomatic alliances and shape public opinion in favor of their respective military causes. Ukraine has sought to position itself as a friend of Israel, condemning the Hamas attacks and saying Russia is leveraging the violence to divide Kyiv and its supporters. In the latest example of this, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov accused Moscow of sending weapons captured from the battlefield in Ukraine to Hamas to discredit Kyiv and make it appear like Ukraine is supporting Hamas. Budanov did not provide evidence for the claim, and it was not possible to independently verify it. Russia has cast the conflict as a demonstration of the failure of the West, and specifically U.S., policy in the Middle East. New York Times
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
X CEO Says Platform Removed Dozens of Hamas-Linked Accounts, Offensive Content. X CEO Linda Yaccarino said Thursday the social media platform has removed dozens of Hamas-affiliated accounts and has removed or flagged thousands of pieces of content since last weekend’s attack on Israel. Yaccarino, responding to a letter from EU Commissioner Thierry Breton demanding X content moderation, said the company welcomed engagement with EU officials and is ready "to address any specific questions and look forward to receiving further specifics to which we can respond." Yaccarino said X has shifted resources and redirected teams to address the rapidly evolving situation. Breton said that his office would review Yaccarino’s response and consider next steps. The EU’s Digital Services Act (DSA) requires platforms like X and Facebook to step up monitoring and remove illegal content. The EU issued a similar warning to Facebook operator, Meta, on Wednesday, with a 24-hour deadline to describe measures it has taken to counter disinformation following the attack on Israel. Reuters
‘Final Review’ Reported for U.S. Updated Restrictions on AI Chip Exports to China. A government posting indicates that updates to U.S. chip export controls to China are under final review and could be released soon. A source told Reuters that the new provisions will add restrictions and close loopholes. The Commerce Department, which manages export controls, declined to comment. The website of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) carried a notification that the high-end chip control regulation was received for review on October 10. Former officials explain that export control rules are not posted by OMB until agreement on content is reached by the State Department, Pentagon, Commerce, and Energy. Issues still can be addressed in the course of the OMB interagency clearance process. Reuters
China Publishes Draft Security Rules for Generative AI Data Training Operations. China’s draft security requirements for firms that offer generative AI services were published Wednesday, and include sources that cannot be used to train AI models. Issued by the National Information Security Standardization Committee, which includes cybersecurity, information technology, and law enforcement officials, the draft rules envision security assessments of all content used to train public-facing generative AI models. Data collections containing “more than 5 percent of illegal and harmful information” would be blacklisted under the framework. This includes content that promotes terrorism or violence as well as material advocating overthrow of the socialist system or that damages China’s image or undermines national unity and stability. The rules prescribed information censored on the Chinese internet from use in AI model training and required organizations producing AI models to gain individuals’ consent when personal information, including biometric data, is used for training purposes. Reuters
Cybersecurity Firm Reports New Malware Campaign Against Telegram, AWS Users. A new wave of malware capable of burying malicious code within targeted software functions is being directed at users of Telegram, Amazon Web Services (AWS), and Alibaba Cloud. The Checkmarx cybersecurity firm reports that the new campaign, attributed to a threat actor labeled “kohlersbtuh15,” uses typosquatting and starjacking tactics that, respectively, lure a target into clicking on a link bearing a seemingly authentic domain name, or embed malicious code in a benign package. Checkmarx noted that the novel tactic employed in these attacks is the integration of “malicious scripts deep within the package, within specific functions.” In this application, the malicious code will execute only when triggered by the regular use of a specific function. The outcome is that the malware “targets specific operations or functionalities, making the attack more effective and difficult to detect.” Checkmarx pointed to two consequences of successful attacks, with the best-case scenario “infecting high-privileged developer accounts within your network.” A more serious outcome, the firm said, is “you could end up infecting your customers with compromised software releases.” Cybernews
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