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5:30 PM ET, Thursday, November 9, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's top headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

U.S. Forces in Iraq Targeted in Widespread Attacks.  U.S. forces in Iraq were targeted in three separate attacks on Thursday, but suffered no casualties.  The attacks marked the most geographically widespread series of strikes against U.S. forces in the region since the Hamas attacks on Israel.  Security sources say a joint patrol of U.S. troops and Iraqi counterterrorism service personnel were targeted by an explosive device near the northern city of Mosul, causing damage to a vehicle.  A U.S. military official confirmed an improvised explosive device (IED) blast targeted a U.S.-led coalition convoy near the Mosul Dam.

Elsewhere, security sources said armed drones targeted the al-Harir air base in Erbil and the Ain al-Asad air base west of Baghdad, both of which host U.S. and international forces.  Air defenses downed the drones.  Iraq’s Kurdistan counterterrorism service said the drone attack at the al-Harir base caused a fire at one of its fuel depots and noted that the facility had been evacuated of U.S.-led coalition forces on October 20.

A U.S. official said U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria have been attacked four times in the past 24 hours.  The latest attacks came after the U.S. said it struck a weapon facility in Syria used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and affiliated groups.  The White House said such strikes are meant to deter Iranian-backed proxies from attacking U.S. forces in the region.  The attacks also came after U.S. officials reported that Yemen’s Houthis downed a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone in international airspace near Yemen on Wednesday.  Reuters The Guardian

Israel Agrees to 4-Hour Daily Humanitarian Pauses.  The White House says that Israel has agreed to start observing four-hour daily humanitarian pauses in its attacks on Gaza starting on Thursday.  White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said Israel has committed to announcing the four-hour pauses at least three hours in advance.  Kirby said the pauses could be useful in securing the release of the 239 hostages currently held by Hamas.  He also said Israel is opening a second corridor for Palestinian civilians to flee south from northern Gaza.

President Joe Biden said there currently was “no possibility” for a full ceasefire.  However, he also expressed some frustration over how long it took to institute the daily pauses, saying it had “taken a little longer than I hoped.”  Biden had previously called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to observe humanitarian pauses, as well as a “pause longer than three days” for hostage negotiations with Hamas.

The Palestinian group Islamic Jihad in Gaza is also set to release two Israeli hostages, a woman and a boy, for humanitarian and medical reasons, according to a spokesperson for Islamic Jihad’s armed wing al Quds Brigades.  He added that the release will take place once appropriate measures are taken.

Qatar has been hosting indirect hostage talks, including discussions on Thursday between CIA Director William Burns, the head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency and Qatar’s prime minister in Doha.  Associated Press Reuters

U.S. Election Offices Receive Suspicious Letters Filled with Fentanyl, Other Substances.  U.S. authorities on Thursday reported that suspicious letters, including some filled with fentanyl and other substances, were sent to local election offices across multiple states.  Officials said offices in at least three states — Georgia, Oregon and Washington— received the letters.  In Georgia, an office in Fulton County, which covers most of Atlanta and is the largest voting jurisdiction in the key presidential swing state, received one of the letters.  Authorities were working to intercept the letter and sent the overdose-reversal drug naloxone to the office as a precaution.  In Oregon, an office in Lane County, which includes the University of Oregon, received a suspicious piece of mail.  Officials said no one came into contact with the mail or was reporting negative health effects, but the office was closed and an afternoon pickup of ballots was delayed as a precaution.  In Washington state, four county election offices were evacuated after receiving letters containing powders.  One letter field-tested positive for fentanyl, while at least one letter contained baking soda.  A message in at least one of the envelopes called for “something to the effect of stopping the election.”  The incidents come amid heightened concerns over threats against election workers and risk of domestic terrorism around elections.  Associated Press

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israel Says it Captured Hamas Stronghold, Killed Hamas Commander.  The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said it captured a major Hamas military stronghold in west Jabalia in northern Gaza.  The IDF said it took the stronghold, which it called Outpost 17, after 10 hours of fighting.  The IDF said it killed dozens of militants in the operation and found “significant” Hamas battle plans, as well as weapons and tunnel shafts, one of which was located near a kindergarten and led to an underground route.  Separately, the IDF and Israel’s Shin Bet domestic intelligence agency said an Israeli airstrike killed Ibrahim Abu-Maghsib, the head of Hamas’s anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) operations in central Gaza.  The IDF also said it found a Hamas drone manufacturing plant and weapons depot in Gaza City.  Hamas’s military wing al Qassam Brigades said it was targeting Israeli forces in northern Gaza.  CNN Times of Israel 

Israel Seeking Inexpensive Drones in Wake of Hamas Attacks.  Israel’s government and military and citizen groups are seeking as many commercial drones as possible to help in the response to the Hamas attacks on Israel.  Sources involved with the sales of the drones, which are mostly made by U.S. or Chinese companies, say they are being used to help search for hostages, gather intelligence and guard settlements.  The Chinese drones are often cheaper and more readily available and easy to stockpile, while the U.S. drones can be more sophisticated and much more expensive.  Experts say Israel is wanting as many of the drones as possible, no matter where they are from.  Bobby Sakaki, a drone consultant in Salt Lake City, said such purchases aren’t aimed at “making a political statement” but are about achieving “the tactical edge” amid conflict.  Analysts added that Israel’s scramble to acquire cheap, off-the-shelf drones demonstrates how even the most well-equipped militaries can lack in drone capabilities.  It also underscores the importance of drones in modern warfare, which can also be seen in the Ukraine war.  Wall Street Journal

Israel Accuses International Media Outlets of Having Forewarning of Hamas Attacks through Gaza Photographers.  Israel on Thursday said Reuters, the Associated Press (AP), the New York Times and CNN worked with four Gaza-based photojournalists it accused of having advanced knowledge of the Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7.  Israel’s government accused the photojournalists of arriving at Israel’s border “alongside Hamas terrorists” to document their attacks.  The Israeli government’s press office accused the photographers of crossing “every professional and moral red line,” and the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu further said the photojournalists were “accomplices in crimes against humanity” for chronicling rather than trying to stop the attacks.  Israel’s representative to the U.N., Danny Danon, added that Israel has a list of people it will “eliminate” for participating in the attacks and that “photojournalists who took part in recording the assault will be added to that list.”

Israel’s accusations came after media advocacy group HonestReporting questioned whether the photojournalists knew of the Hamas attacks beforehand so they could prepare to closely track the assault.  HonestReporting said it wasn’t accusing the media outlets of “collusion” but was asking relevant questions about the freelancers.  Honest Reporting’s report on the matter included a picture of one of the photojournalists, Hassan Eslaiah, being kissed by Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Reuters “categorically denies” having prior knowledge of the attacks or that it “embedded journalists with Hamas,” maintaining that the photojournalists it worked with were at the Gaza border at the time of the attacks and that it “did not have a prior relationship” with them.  Reuters also said photographs from the photographers were published two hours after Hamas started rocket attacks and over 45 minutes after Israel reported Hamas fighters crossed into its territory.  Reuters added that its staff journalists were not on the ground at locations mentioned by HonestReporting.

AP likewise said it “had no knowledge” of the Hamas attacks before they happened and that any photographs from freelancers were “taken more than an hour after the attacks began.”  AP said none of its staff were at the border at the time of the attacks. AP also said it is “no longer working” with Eslaiah, who had done occasional freelance work in Gaza for AP and other news outlets.

The New York Times said accusations of wrongdoing are “untrue” and “outrageous” and that they put “journalists on the ground in Israel and Gaza at risk.”  The Times also criticized Honest Reporting for “vague allegations” against the photojournalists, including Yousef Masoud, who “was not working for The Times on the day of the attack” but has done “important work” for the publication.

CNN did not comment on the reports, but said it cut ties with Eslaiah. CNN said it has not found a reason to doubt the “journalistic accuracy” of his work but was aware of his inclusion in HonestReporting’s report.  Politico Financial Times Reuters

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russia Claims to Down Neptune Anti-Ship Missile.  Russia’s defense ministry claims its forces downed a Ukrainian anti-ship missile over the Black Sea near the coast of Crimea on Thursday.  Ukrainian news outlet Suspilne Crimea reported a “powerful” explosion was heard near the Crimean port of Sevastopol.  After the blast, Mikhail Razvozhaev, the Russian-appointed head of Sevastopol’s government, said the Russian military destroyed an aerial target.  The claims could not be independently verified and Ukraine has not commented on the report.  Neptune missiles are ground-launched, domestically produced anti-ship rockets with a range of around 186 miles.  Kyiv Independent

Rheinmetall to Deliver 100,000 Mortar Shells to Ukraine.  German arms maker Rheinmetall is producing around 100,000 rounds of mortar ammunition for Ukraine.  The shells will be part of German military support for Kyiv.  Berlin announced a $430 million military aid package for Ukraine in September that would include “105,000 rounds of 120-millimeter caliber explosive, smoke and flare mortar ammunition.”  Rheinmetall said a “low three-digit million euro” sum of that funding would go towards 120-millimeter mortar shells made by the company.  Delivery of the shells will start “shortly” and continue over the next two years.  Defense News

E.U. Considers Alternate Ukraine Aid Plan in Case of Hungary Veto.  The E.U. is reportedly considering an alternative plan to provide aid to Ukraine in case Hungary vetoes a current proposal for a $53 billion assistance package.  Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said he opposes including the package in the E.U.’s budget, which must be unanimously approved by all 27 member nations.  Sources say the alternative plan will have E.U. members commit to national guarantees to raise funding in the markets if Budapest blocks the review of the E.U.’s long term budget.  Orban, who has previously called against military aid for Kyiv and said Ukraine’s counteroffensive would fail, is notably seeking the release of over $30 billion in E.U. funds for Hungary that were frozen last year over concerns about democratic backsliding.  Officials from Spain, which currently holds the rotating E.U. presidency, and European Commission are reportedly still hopeful about reaching a consensus on the long-term budget by the end of the year.  Bloomberg Kyiv Independent

E.U. Says U.A.E. to Curb Re-Export of Goods Used for Military Purposes to Russia.  The European Commission told E.U. member states this week that the United Arab Emirates has agreed to restrict direct re-exports of sensitive goods used for military purposes to Russia.  An U.A.E. official said the move restricts the export and re-export of identified dual-use products to conflict zones and expands a legal framework to monitor such exports.  The Commission reportedly briefed E.U. ambassadors on the development this week.  Turkey is reportedly considering a similar measure, according to sources.  Despite Western sanctions against Russia amid the Ukraine war, Moscow has continued to have access to dual-use and other sensitive goods through third countries.  Bloomberg Reuters

Ukrainian Drone Pilots Fear Advantage has been Lost.  Ukrainian troops piloting the country’s fleet of small, cheap assault drones are concerned that they are now being outmatched by Russia as it bolsters its drone sector.  The use of drones, especially First Person View (FPV) drones, was a low-cost strategy that helped Ukraine successfully defend itself at the start of Russia’s invasion.  Most of the small, battlefield-level drones Ukraine has used have been bought by civic organizations or were donated by private individuals.  Now, Moscow is gradually mirroring Ukraine’s strategy by increasing its use and production of drones for the war.  One pilot said Russia likely now has double the FPVs deployed near Bakhmut than Ukraine does.  Ukraine is still working to expand its drone capabilities, funding production of larger, longer-range reconnaissance and assault drones.  Reuters

Russia Seeks to Recruit Former Wagner Fighters to Return to Ukraine.  Russia’s military is reportedly stepping up efforts to recruit former Wagner Group fighters.  Four former Russian inmates who fought with Wagner in eastern Ukraine said they received calls in recent weeks to sign new military contracts.  Three of the former fighters said they were specifically urged to join Rosgvardia, Russia’s militarized national guard, which has played a key role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  Rosgvardia has sought to present itself as a successor to Wagner, which made some of Russia’s most significant advances in the Ukraine war.  A regional Rosgvardia employee said the force recently created a special brigade specifically for former convicts who fight in the Wagner Group.  Other Wagner fighters have reportedly joined Rosgvardia’s Akhmat tactical unit in Chechnya.  At least one former Wagner fighter has reportedly died in Ukraine after re-enlisting in Akhmat.  The Russian Army has also been trying to poach Wagner veterans.  New York Times

Russia Asks Arms Customers to Return Military Equipment.  Russia is reportedly trying to recover military equipment it has sold to other countries in an attempt to replenish its military stocks that have been drained from its invasion of Ukraine.  A source familiar with the deals said the Russians are “going back in secret to their customers trying to buy back what they sold them.”  In April, Egypt reportedly agreed to a Russian request for the return of 150 helicopter engines.  Some sources say Egypt may have returned the engines to pay off debts from past arms purchases it was not able to pay back due to U.S. sanctions.  Other sources say Russia threatened to remove arms advisors from Egypt to pressure Cairo into returning the engines.  The Egyptian government has denied reports of the trade, saying that it “is not willing to give up its armed capabilities to another entity.”  Russia has reportedly requested similar buybacks of helicopter engines from long-time trade partners Pakistan, Belarus, and Brazil.  Pakistan reports that Russia has requested the return of at least four Mi-35M engines while Brazil reports requests for 12.  Russia has also reportedly rerouted arms originally meant for India and Armenia to its troops in Ukraine.  Wall Street Journal Kyiv Independent 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Nvidia Plans Release of Three New AI Chips for Chinese Market.  Chip manufacturer Nvidia is planning the release of three new AI chips for the China market, according to a Chinese-government affiliated news outlet.  Chinastarmarket reported Thursday that the new Nvidia chips are based on its leading H100 product, with deliveries to Chinese firms likely to begin in the next week.  An Nvidia spokesperson declined to comment on the report.  In October, the Biden administration expanded its ban on chip exports to China, to include Nvidia’s A800 and H800 series.  Nvidia previously stated that it does not anticipate a negative financial impact from the new restrictions, but reports indicate the company may have to cancel orders amounting to billions of dollars from Chinese tech firms.  In a related development, Intel reportedly is planning to release a new AI chip for China, although the company did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.  Bloomberg Financial Times Barrons

Chinese Foreign Minister Urges Dutch Counterpart To Sustain ‘Pragmatic’ Ties.  Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has urged the Netherlands to continue technology and supply chain cooperation in advance of chip-making export curbs taking effect next year.  In a telephone call with new Dutch Foreign Minister Hanke Bruins Slot on Wednesday, Wang said that China remains receptive to an “open, pragmatic and comprehensive” bilateral relationship.  Wang invited his Dutch counterpart to maintain the two countries’ collaboration “on the economy and trade, science and technology, innovation and other fields, and maintain the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain.”  According to a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement, Slot responded by acknowledging their strong trade relations, with China standing as the Netherlands’ most important trading partner in Asia.  The Dutch official reportedly said that the Netherlands is willing to strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation with China and advance an open and pragmatic comprehensive partnership.  China’s imports from the Netherlands surged in October as Chinese companies began stockpiling hi-tech chip-making equipment before export controls are implemented on January 1.  In September, Chinese imports of lithography machines from the Netherlands rose by 1,850 per cent to $1.3 billion compared with a year earlier.  The Netherlands, along with Japan, imposed restrictions on chips and chip-making equipment exports to China in September, allowing a grace period until January 1.  South China Morning Post

SolarWinds Denies SEC Charges of Cybersecurity Negligence, Investor Fraud.  SolarWinds, maker of business software and target of a massive Russian system hack in 2020, has denied charges brought by the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) that its cybersecurity defenses were inadequate and that the company misled investors about its cyber vulnerabilities.  In a statement, the company said, “the SEC’s lawsuit is fundamentally flawed—both legally and factually—and we plan to defend vigorously against the charges.”  The SEC lawsuit against SolarWinds was disclosed last month and includes charges against Timothy Brown, the company’s chief information security officer, in what is described as an unusual naming of an executive not accused of financial crimes.  The SEC cited internal communications between Brown and other executives that indicated the company was aware of vulnerabilities in its cybersecurity program before the disclosure of a major hack of its software products.  SolarWinds’ rebuttal of the SEC charges says the agency used selective quotes from internal communications taken out of context:  “The SEC is twisting the facts in an attempt to expand its regulatory footprint in the cybersecurity space.”  The company denied allegations that its VPN contained a vulnerability that allowed attackers access to its servers, adding that it maintained appropriate controls for access.  Wall Street Journal

Voluntary Multistate Agreement on Military Use Among Less Publicized AI Initiatives.  Overshadowed by high-profile AI initiatives launched by the White House and followed by the UK’s AI Safety Summit, Vice President Kamala Harris in her November 1 speech in London also disclosed a voluntary agreement by 31 nations to develop safeguards for military uses of artificial intelligence.  Signatories include Britain, Canada, Australia, Germany, and France.  China and Russia, which are regarded as leaders in the development of autonomous weapons systems, did not sign the declaration.  The thrust of the agreement is that signatory nations will use reviews and training to ensure military applications of the technology abide by international law.  It also calls for such applications to be developed with transparency while avoiding biases in AI systems.  While the agreement is not legally binding, it is the first to articulate guardrails for military AI development.  “Incredibly significant” is how Lauren Kahn, a senior research analyst at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown University, described the U.S.-initiated declaration.  She noted that binding international agreements on norms for how nations develop, test, and deploy military AI in military systems could emerge from the practical path laid out in the declaration.  The declaration calls on signatory nations to meet in early 2024 to continue discussions.  Wired

Cyberattacks Decline Worldwide, But U.S. Still Ranks as Leading Breach Target.  Although cyberattacks on a global basis have declined, the rate of attacks remains high with U.S. systems as the most targeted in the world.  The Surfshark cybersecurity firm has released a report showing the U.S. as the top target for cyberattacks between July and September, with Russia and France in second and third place.  About a quarter of the 31.5 million registered attacks worldwide occurred in the U.S., closely followed by Russia.  Surfshark’s findings indicate that overall successful cyberattacks are on the decline.  The Surfshark measure of this lessening rate comes with the drop of “compromised machines per second” from 17 between April and June to just four machine compromises per second from July through September.   Still, Surfshark points out, “every minute, over 240 online accounts were compromised globally, exposing sensitive information to malicious actors.”  While the U.S. leads in overall share of attacks, Europe is the most targeted continent, with 10.9 million breaches in the third quarter, down substantially from 48.1 million the previous quarter.  Surfshark’s figures for compromised accounts per thousand residents shows Russia in the lead with 49, France with 25, and the U.S., 24.  Cybernews

Norway Spaceport Completing Steps To Become Europe’s First Orbital Launch Site.  Norway is putting the final touches on the first operational spaceport in Europe capable of supporting orbital launches.  The spaceport on the Norwegian island of Andoya will be used by Isar Aerospace, a German firm.  The Andoya complex includes several launchpads along with payload integrations facilities and a mission control center.  Isar plans to launch small and medium-size satellites aboard its new two-stage orbital launch vehicle, Spectrum, which is undergoing final testing.  Isar CEO Daniel Metzler noted that the company over the last five years has developed the capability “to solve the most crucial bottleneck in the European space industry – sovereign and competitive access to space.”  A company press release notes that because of its far north location, the Andoya spaceport “can offer launches to highly retrograde orbit inclinations. These are favorable for sun-synchronous as well as polar orbits which the market has a strong demand for as launch sites for these orbits are limited globally.”  The Spectrum launch vehicle, which is in production phase for all components including flight engines, still must pass acceptance testing to verify that its systems meet all necessary requirements.  Cybernews

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

U.S. Treasury Secretary Seeks ‘Open and Substantive’ Talks with China.  U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Thursday at the start of two days of meetings in San Francisco ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.  Yellen told He that she seeks an “open and substantive” discussion on U.S.-China economic relations and China’s subsidy practices.  She added that she looks forward to discussions on collaboration to address global challenges like climate change and debt distress, saying that Washington and Beijing “have an obligation to lead” on these issues.  Yellen also reiterated that the U.S. is not seeking decoupling from China, saying that “full separation of our economies would be economically disastrous,” however she said the U.S. “will continue to take targeted actions” regarding national security-related trade restrictions on certain technology exports and U.S. investments in China.  Ahead of the talks, Chinese state media outlined Beijing’s grievances with the U.S., saying that Washington has discredited China’s business environment, adopted “hegemonic thinking” when it comes to China’s supply chains and technological development, and is pushing lies about China’s “debt-trap diplomacy.”  Bloomberg Reuters

Bulgaria Approves $1.5 Billion Purchase of Stryker Vehicles.  The Bulgarian parliament on Thursday approved a $1.5 billion purchase of 183 Stryker fighting vehicles from the U.S.  The U.S. State Department approved the possible sale in September.  The purchase is aimed at modernizing Bulgaria’s army and bringing it in line with NATO standards.  The Stryker is produced by General Dynamic Land Systems in Canada for the U.S. military and can be used to transport infantry and different weapons, engineering, and electronic systems.  Reuters

UN Suspends Pullout of African Union Troops from Somalia.  The U.N. Security Council on Thursday temporarily suspended the withdrawal of African Union troops from Somalia for three months.  Somalia requested the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to remain in the country to counter al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s affiliate in East Africa.  All African Union countries that contribute soldiers to the mission supported Somalia’s request to delay the pullout of the 19,000-strong force for 90 days.  ATMIS was approved last year in April and was supposed to be withdrawn in phases to the end of 2024, when Somali forces would take full responsibility for the country’s security.  Somalia has had success in its current offensive against al-Shabaab, but the extremist group continues to carry out attacks.  Associated Press

Saudi Arabia, African Nations Sign Deals Worth Over $500 Million.  Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan said at Saudi-Arab-African Economic Conference in Riyadh on Thursday that the Saudi Fund for Development will sign agreements worth 2 billion riyals ($553 million) with African countries.  Saudi Investment Minister Khalid Al-Falih added at the conference that the kingdom’s Public Investment Fund, its over $700 billion wealth fund, is making “game changing” investments in Africa.  Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman also said the kingdom has signed preliminary agreements with Nigeria, Senegal, Chad, and Ethiopia on energy cooperation.  Mozambique’s finance ministry later said it signed a financing agreement with the Saudi Development Fund for $158 million for infrastructure projects.  Reuters

The data cutoff for this product was 4:00p.m. E.T.

Ethan Masucol, Brad Christian and Ken Hughes.

Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion in The Cipher Brief