5:30 PM ET, Thursday, November 16, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Gaza Communications Cut Due to Fuel Shortage. Palestine’s main telecommunications provider Palnet says that internet and telephone services in Gaza are down due to a lack of fuel to sustain communications networks. UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini confirmed the new communications blackout and warned that it will fuel panic and further erode civil order. He added that UNRWA and other aid groups will be hindered in providing services if the blackout continues. The blackout also largely cuts Gaza off from the rest of the world, which will make it even harder for international media to cover and track developments on the ground. Lazzarini said that if fuel is sent to Gaza, communications services will likely resume. Israel has barred the delivery of new supplies of fuel into Gaza over concerns that it will be used by Hamas for military purposes. Associated Press Barron’s
Israel Continues Searching Al-Shifa Hospital. Israeli forces continued operations in Gaza’s Al-Shifa hospital for a second day, searching for evidence that Hamas has used it to hide a secret underground base. Israel has not presented much evidence supporting that claim, having only released a video showing about a dozen guns and military uniforms that Israel’s military says were found in an M.R.I. unit at the hospital. The evidence has not been independently verified. Hamas called the video “a weak and ridiculous narration” and accused Israel’s military of having “terrorized” the hospital’s patients. Israel has said that it found an aboveground commander center in the M.R.I. unit, which Hamas has also dismissed as “a fabricated story that no one would believe.” A spokesman for Israel’s military, Major Nir Dinar, said Israel needs more time to find and present evidence of Hamas’s presence at the hospital, explaining that more time is needed to find and present evidence. The U.S. continues to back Israel’s assessment that Hamas uses the hospital, with White House National Security Council spokesman saying that Washington is “confident” in both U.S. and Israeli intelligence suggesting so. Kirby did reiterate that the U.S. cannot share specifics from its own or Israel’s intelligence. New York Times Wall Street Journal Reuters
Israel says Body of Hostage Recovered Near Gaza’s Al Shifa Hospital. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said on Thursday that it found the body of an Israeli woman kidnapped by Hamas in a “structure” near the Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza. The IDF said the body of the woman, Yehudit Weiss, was brought back to Israel. The IDF did not offer details on how or when she was killed. IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari said that she had been killed by Hamas. CNN Reuters
Jordan Refuses Energy-for-Water Exchange Deal with Israel. Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said on Thursday that Jordan will not go through with a deal to provide energy to Israel in exchange for water that was supposed to be ratified last month. Safadi said such cooperation will not proceed due to the “retaliatory barbarism carried out by Israel,” referencing Israeli military operations in Gaza targeting Hamas. He added that Jordan will not discuss who will run Gaza after the conflict, saying that fighting in Gaza must first be stopped. Al Jazeera Barron’s Reuters
France Condemns Settler Violence in Occupied West Bank. France’s foreign ministry on Thursday condemned violence by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank against Palestinian, describing it as a “policy of terror” aimed at forcibly displacing Palestinians from the territory. A ministry spokesperson urged Israeli authorities to better protect Palestinians in the West Bank and warned that settlements there harm efforts for a two-state solution. The U.N. reports that daily settler attacks in the West Bank have more than doubled since the Hamas attacks on October 7. U.N. data further shows that this year has been the most deadliest for the West Bank in at least 15 years, with around 200 Palestinians and 26 Israelis killed. Over 120 West Bank Palestinians have been killed since the Hamas attacks. Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
U.S. Sanctions Violators of Russian Oil Price Cap. The U.S. Treasury Department imposed sanctions on three U.A.E.-based shipping companies and three vessels owned by them for shipping Russian oil above the G7’s price cap of $60 per barrel. The Treasury said the vessels used U.S.-person services while transporting the Russian crude oil. The measures are aimed at strengthening enforcement of the price cap, which aims to curb Russia’s oil revenues in response to its invasion of Ukraine. Russia continues to transport oil above the price cap by using a “ghost fleet” of aging oil tankers that do business with third-party countries and relying on tankers that operate without Western insurance. Associated Press Reuters U.S. Department of the Treasury
Thousands of Ukrainian Children Taken to Belarus. Over 2,400 Ukrainian children have been taken to 13 facilities across Belarus since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to research by the Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale School of Public Health. Yale researchers said the children have been taken from at least 17 cities in the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions and that it is an ongoing practice. Once in Belarus, research shows that Ukrainian children are subjected to military training and re-education. Researchers also said transports of children to Belarus were funded by Belarusian state organizations and “ultimately coordinated” between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. The research is the most extensive evidence to date about Belarus’s role in supporting Russia’s systematic relocation and re-education of Ukrainian children from areas it has occupied. Forced deportations of children could constitute a war crime. Russia’s Children’s Rights Commissioner, Belarus’s foreign ministry, Ukraine’s foreign ministry and the Ukrainian prosecutor general did not comment on the research. Reuters
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Chinese State Security Ministry Cites Wide-Ranging Security Risks Arising from AI. China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) has highlighted the security challenges posed by AI applications, saying they “may fundamentally change the existing national security landscape in the near future.” In a post to the MSS WeChat account, the intelligence agency cited data leaks, cyberattacks, and data manipulation among the risks stemming from AI usage. The MSS article noted that the massive data sources needed to train AI models could contain sensitive information. If misused, that information could threaten personal privacy as well as national security. Potential threats from the technology encompasses both economic and military sectors. AI-assisted cyberattacks, “data poisoning,” and various forms of disinformation could also emerge from malicious uses of AI. The prospects for AI applications to replace human labor in certain sectors could lead to disruptions of China’s economic, social, and political security. The incorporation of AI technologies in lethal autonomous weapons and AI use to enhance command and control systems were also raised as areas of concern. South China Morning Post
House Intelligence Panel Outlines Alternative Reform of Section 702 Surveillance Rules. The Republican majority of the House Intelligence Committee on Thursday provided an outline of proposed legislation to reauthorize Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which is scheduled to expire at the end of 2023. Committee Chairman Mike Turner told reporters he believes “we will have a significant package of reforms that will be unprecedented and, at the same time, we will have the renewal of 702” by year’s end. The intelligence committee report comes alongside a proposal last week from House and Senate members that would impose new restrictions on Section 702, including a requirement that the FBI obtain warrants before interrogating NSA databases for information related to Americans. Unlike that bill, the intelligence committee reform would require the FBI to obtain a warrant only for searches for Americans' information that might yield “evidence of a crime.” Under Turner’s bill, the Justice Department would be required to perform “independent audits” of all FBI queries for Americans' information within six months. It would also establish stiff criminal penalties for officials who intentionally leak information identifying a U.S. person. Turner noted that Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan “intends to do his own bill,” leading to a situation in which three competing pieces of legislation in the House may need to be addressed in a five-week window. Turner said his committee issued the report because “there's a lot of incorrect information out there and we're trying to get this in the hands of members of Congress and their staff.” Turner expressed confidence that a consensus can be reached on meaningful reforms resulting in “the reauthorization of FISA that will be passed both in the Senate and in the House.” The Record Wired
EU AI Act Negotiations Stumble Over Inclusion of Foundation Model Rules. Europe’s two-year quest to develop artificial intelligence regulations in the EU AI Act was expected to come to a close by year’s end. However, last stage negotiations encountered serious obstacles this week when French and German representatives balked at adding rules for AI foundation models. The apparent reason for the hesitancy is worry that excessive regulation will hamper European initiatives to develop AI models to compete with ChatGPT and similar applications. The French and German positions triggered a walk-out by members of the European Parliament who insist that foundation models be included in the legislation. A consensus on a tiered approach to foundation models seems to have emerged at the he last “trilogue” meeting on October 24, but that has been called into question by subsequent exchanges. The apparent standoff could put the EU behind in the global effort to develop workable AI regulations. Observers are awaiting signs that France and Germany would agree to coverage of foundation models by the AI Act. If no agreement is reached at the next trilogue on December 6, there would be little incentive for the EU presidency to continue technical negotiations in light of upcoming European elections including those to the European Parliament next June. Bloomberg Euractiv
Alibaba Cancels Plans to Spin Off Cloud Division Citing U.S. Chip Export Restrictions. The Chinese tech giant, Alibaba, announced Thursday that it is abandoning plans to spin off and list its cloud-computing division, partly as a result of the new U.S. curbs on chip technology exports to China. According to the company, the expanded chip restrictions “may materially and adversely affect” the development of products and services. Alibaba said it will instead focus on growing the cloud division. The plan that would have separated the cloud-computing component was part of a broad restructuring of the conglomerate into six business groups. The company also said Thursday U.S. chip restrictions may impact Alibaba’s businesses more generally by limiting its ability to upgrade technologies. In March, market analysts said the cloud division could be valued between $41-60 billion, but warned that its listing could attract scrutiny from both Chinese and foreign regulators because of the data volumes it manages. In a related development, the Chinese social-media firm Tencent said Wednesday the U.S. chip restrictions would affect its AI chip leasing business through cloud services, with less impact though for its near-term Al model development. Tencent President Martin Lau noted that the company has stockpiled chips, including Nvidia’s H800, and is attempting to use its inventory more efficiently as it explores acquisition of Chinese-made AI training chips. Wall Street Journal Bloomberg Reuters South China Morning Post
Amazon Reports Successful Tests of Two Prototype Communications Satellites. Amazon has announced that the two prototype communications satellites it launched last month are operating according to plan following completions of a series of tests. The Project Kuiper teams evaluated the performance of flight computers, solar-power arrays, propulsion systems, and radio transmission. The satellites have conducted 4K video streaming and two-way video connections over the Kuiper network. Tests will continue even as Amazon begins production of extended-service models in anticipation of a “rapid launch” sequence next year. Amazon has been authorized by the FCC to develop a low-earth orbit constellation of 3,326 satellites to provide global broadband Internet service. Amazon previously announced agreements with various rocket companies, including Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin, United Launch Alliance (ULA), and Europe's Arianespace, for 83 launches, the largest commercial rocket procurement ever. ULA is scheduled to launch the first several batches of Kuiper satellites aboard its Atlas 5 and Vulcan rockets. Bloomberg Reuters
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Europe
Turkey’s Parliament Delays Decision on Sweden’s NATO Membership Bid. The Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee opened debate on the ratification of Sweden’s bid to join NATO on Thursday, but adjourned proceedings to an unspecified later date without reaching a decision. The meeting was adjourned after lawmakers from Erdogan’s ruling party requested a postponement to seek clarification on issues and because negotiations with Sweden have not “matured” enough. Committee chairman Fuat Oktay told reporters that Sweden’s ambassador to Turkey may be invited to the next session to offer more information on what Stockholm has done to address Turkish security concerns. It is unclear when the committee will resume discussions on Sweden’s application to join NATO or when Parliament’s general assembly will consider the issue. A senior U.S. State Department official told reporters on the condition of anonymity that Turkey is “very interested” in approving Sweden’s accession to NATO during a meeting of the alliance’s foreign ministers in Brussels on November 28-29. Associated Press Reuters
Turkey Seeking to Buy Eurofighter Typhoon Jets. Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Aguhar said on Thursday that Ankara is in talks to buy 40 Eurofighter typhoon jets from Britain and Spain. He said British and Spanish officials are working to convince Germany to approve the purchase. The U.K., Spain, Germany, and Italy cooperate in producing the Eurofighters. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to raise the issue when he visits Germany on Friday. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is unlikely to consent to the deal due to strains over issues including Turkey’s purchase of Russian air defenses, its military campaign against Kurdish forces in Syria, its delay in ratifying Sweden’s membership in NATO, and its condemnation of Israel amid its war with Hamas. Bloomberg Reuters
Finland Closing Some Border Crossings with Russia to Stop Asylum Seekers. Finland will close four of its nine border crossings with Russia on Saturday to curb the influx of migrants and asylum seekers seeking to enter from the Russian side. The four crossings are all in southeastern Finland and are the busiest crossing points between the new NATO member and Russia. Finland said it will not deny asylum seekers but that they can only apply for asylum at two northern border crossings. Finland has accused Russia of funneling asylum seekers to the border as apparent revenge for Finland’s defense cooperation with the U.S., which Moscow had denied. Finnish border authorities reported dozens of asylum seekers arrived each day this week via Russia, marking a major spike from the one per day average just a few weeks ago. In 2021, Belarus was similarly accused by its neighbors of sending tens of thousands of migrants and refugees into Poland, LIthuania, and Latvia to destabilize the region. Reuters Financial Times
U.S. Imposes Sanctions to Counter Russian Influence in the Western Balkans. The U.S. sanctioned 10 individuals and 20 entities, including 11 based in Russia, with measures aimed at containing Russian influence in the Western Balkans. Those targeted by the sanctions are accused of supporting Russian efforts to prevent the Western Balkans’ integration into international institutions. Individuals targeted by the move include pro-Russian politicians and businessmen involved in the transfer of military parts and equipment to Russia. Reuters U.S. Department of the Treasury
Spain’s Sanchez Reelected Prime Minister. Spain’s parliament reelected Pedro Sanchez as the country’s prime minister on Thursday. He was backed by 179 lawmakers of the 350-seat lower house of parliament to form a new minority leftist coalition government. Sanchez won the vote days after agreeing to an amnesty deal for Catalan separatists in exchange for support for his reelection bid. Associated Press Wall Street Journal
The Americas
Kenya High Court Extends Block on Police Deployment to Haiti Despite Parliamentary Approval. Kenya’s high court on Thursday extended a block on the deployment of 1,000 police officers to Haiti to help the Caribbean country counter gang violence. High Court Judge Chacha Mwita said he will issue a ruling on whether the deployment can go ahead on January 26, effectively blocking it until at least then. The move came after Kenya’s parliament passed a motion approving the deployment. The High Court first blocked the deployment in October. Those against sending the police officers to Haiti say doing so would be unconstitutional since only the military can be deployed abroad. The government maintains that the plan is legal and has emphasized that it would be fully funded by the U.N. Associated Press BBC
The data cutoff for this product was 4:00p.m. E.T.
Ethan Masucol and Ken Hughes contributed to this report.
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