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6:00 PM ET, Thursday, July 13, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

In the Americas

Biden Says Putin Has ‘Already Lost’ Ukraine War.  President Joe Biden said on Thursday that he does not think the Ukraine will drag on for years to come because Russian President Vladimir Putin “has already lost the war.”  Biden asserted that Russia does not have the resources to continue the war for years, adding that Putin will likely eventually “decide it’s not in interest for Russia, economically, politically or otherwise.”  Biden also said that he is hopeful that Ukraine will achieve success in its counteroffensive to help encourage a negotiated settlement to the war.  Biden also said he does not think there’s any “real prospect” that Moscow will use nuclear weapons in the war, noting that besides the West, “China and the rest of the world have [also] said, ‘Don’t go there.’”  Separately, in regards to the fate of Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin after his mercenary organization’s mutiny, Biden said “I don’t think any of us know for certain what the future of Prigozhin is in Russia.”  CNN Deutsche Welle NBC News The Hill

Biden Says Open to Prisoner Exchange for Release of WSJ Reporter in Russia.  President Joe Biden on Thursday said he is “serious” about pursuing a prisoner exchange with Russia to secure the release of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who was detained by Russian authorities in March on espionage charges.  Biden added that the “process is underway” to facilitate a swap.  Gershkovich denies accusations against him, and the U.S. has ruled him to be wrongfully detained.  The Kremlin has previously said it is open to a possible prisoner exchange including Gershkovich, though it said negotiations on the issue should be strictly held in secret.  Associated Press

Biden’s Nominee for NSA Chief Calls for Reauthorization of Section 702.  U.S. Air Force Lieutenant General Timothy Haugh, President Joe Biden’s nominee to be the next head of U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency, on Wednesday called for the reauthorization of Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Act.  Speaking at his Senate confirmation hearing, Haugh said that the authority provides critical intelligence to the U.S., testifying that it is “extensively used” and “irreplaceable” and contributes to “every product that goes to the senior leaders of our government.”  The Biden administration has been pushing to extend Section 702, which allows for U.S. intelligence agencies to surveil electronic communications of foreigners abroad.  However, critics say the authority needs to be significantly reformed or even eliminated in the wake of reports that it has been abused to spy on Americans.  Politico

Biden to Host Israel President at White House.  U.S. President Joe Biden is scheduled to host Israeli President Isaac Herzog at the White House on Tuesday to discuss Israel’s regional integration and Russia’s military ties with Iran.  Herzog’s trip will mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of Israel.  It will also come after a period of increased violence in the occupied West Bank, where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has renewed construction of settlements, which has been criticized by the Biden administration.  Netanyahu has yet to be received at the White House despite his election in November.  Biden has declined to comment on if he has been invited to visit.  Reuters NBC News

Cuban President Visits Portugal, Confirms Attendance at Upcoming EU Summit.  Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel arrived in Portugal for a state visit on Friday.  He will visit Lisbon’s parliament on Friday and then head to Brussels to attend a summit between leaders from the EU and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) on Monday.  The gathering will be the first EU-CELAC summit in eight years.  The Cuban presidency confirmed that Diaz-Canel is attending “to strengthen bi-regional ties on a basis of equality and respect.”  Just days earlier, Cuba criticized the EU for being manipulative and opaque in organizing the summit.  The EU responded by passing a resolution condemning Cuba’s human rights record and calling for sanctions against Diaz-Canel and other Cuban officials, saying that “autocratic regimes should not participate in such summits.”  Havana condemned the resolution and questioned the EU’s sincerity towards the Caribbean.  Reuters

World Court Favors Colombia in Maritime Dispute with Nicaragua.  The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled against Nicaragua’s in its long-running dispute with Colombia over their maritime border.  Nicaragua had sought to expand its offshore rights beyond 200 nautical miles from its coastline, as is customary under international law, arguing that it should instead follow the continental shelf extending from Nicaraguan territory.  The ICJ dismissed this claim, saying that the expansion would bring Nicaraguan territory within 200 nautical miles of Colombia’s coast.  Colombian President Gustavo Petro celebrated the ICJ ruling as a “great victory.”  Nicaragua’s government said it recognized the ruling as “firm, definitive and mandatory.”  A previous ICJ ruling in 2012 set the maritime boundaries between the two countries, reducing Colombian territory, while awarding it some islands in the region, and giving Nicaragua rights to some underwater oil and gas deposits.  Reuters Al Jazeera

Western Europe

Germany Releases New China Strategy.  Germany released its new China strategy on Thursday, following months of delays due to disagreements in the current coalition government.  German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said the strategy reflects the reality that “China has changed,” and that while Berlin seeks to continue dialogue with Beijing, it must change its approach to account for risks that China now poses to German economic and security interests.  Regarding economic relations, the strategy says that “de-risking is urgently needed” to lessen dependence on China for critical and sensitive technologies, as well as support broader EU goals for the bloc to develop its own industrial base and deepen ties with alternative partners.  The strategy also offers tentative support for stricter screening of outbound investments into China.  However, the strategy makes clear that Germany is “not pursuing a decoupling” from the Chinese economy.  Regarding security issues, the strategy raises concerns with China’s ties with Russia, calls for de-escalation in the Taiwan Strait, and highlights Chinese influence and “transnational repression” abroad.  China hit back at the strategy by saying distancing will be detrimental to Germany.  China’s embassy in Germany called on Germany to develop “rationally, comprehensively and objectively” and that Berlin should not see Beijing as a “competitor and institutional rival” but instead a partner for pragmatic cooperation.  South Morning Post Reuters 

Biden Underscores Support for NATO in Finland.  US President Joe Biden met with Finnish President Sauli Niinisto in Helsinki on Thursday ahead of the US-Nordic Leaders’ Summit. Both sides met to discuss issues such as the situation in Ukraine, NATO unity, and U.S. support.  European leaders have expressed concerns over U.S. support following former U.S. President Donald Trump’s past clashes with NATO leaders over funding and U.S. commitment to the alliance. To allay concerns, Biden said he will “guarantee” U.S. commitment to NATO despite “extreme elements” in the U.S.  CNN Reuters

Italy to Buy Leopard 2 Tanks.  Italy is planning to buy German-made Leopard 2 tanks to strengthen its military amid the Ukraine war.  Italian defense undersecretary Isabella Rauti told Italy’s parliament of the plan, saying it will be part of a 4 billion euro investment from 2024 to acquire new tanks and other military upgrades.  Rauti said no specific procurement process has been started and that the plan is subject to parliamentary approval.  A defense source told Reuters that Italy plans to buy 125 Leopard 2 tanks.  The Italian army currently has 200 Ariete tanks, around 50 of which are operational.  In addition to the new Leopards, Rauti said Italy will move to improve its Ariete fleet.  Reuters

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukraine Says Up to 200 Soldiers Killed in Southern Strike.  The mayor of the occupied southern Ukrainian city of Melitopol, Invan Fedorov, reported that a recent Ukrainian strike against a Russian base in the occupied town of Tomak killed up to 200 Russian soldiers, as well as the commandant of the occupied town of Tokmak.  Fedorov is in Ukrainian-held areas and cited Ukrainian intelligence reports for his claim, which could not be immediately verified.  However, a pro-Russian social media outlet did say on Tuesday that Ukraine hit Tomak at least six times, and a Russian-appointed official in occupied Zaporizhzhia said there were explosions in the town.  CNN

Putin Says Foreign-Made Tanks in Ukraine ‘Priority Target.’  Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Thursday that foreign-made tanks on the battlefield in Ukraine are a “priority target” for Russian forces and that Western supplies of weapons to Kyiv will not change the outcome of the war.  Putin also reiterated Moscow’s opposition to Ukraine joining NATO, stating that it “will not increase the security of Ukraine itself. And in general it will make the world much more vulnerable.”  His comments came after the NATO summit in Vilnius, where the alliance offered security guarantees to Kyiv and announced further military aid.  Reuters Al Jazeera

Putin Says Russia May Withdraw From Black Sea Grain Deal.  Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russia may withdraw from the black sea grain deal if its demands regarding the arrangement are not met.  He said Russia’s continued participation depends on if “promises made to us will be fulfilled.” Russia has threatened to withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal, claiming that the current arrangement does not adequately ensure the export of Russian grains and fertilizers.  UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres proposed reconnecting Russia’s agricultural bank to the SWIFT banking payment system, which Moscow has also demanded, through a subsidiary in exchange for Russia’s approval to extend the deal.  Russian officials previously said this would not be satisfactory as the reconnection would take ‘“many months” to complete.  CNN Reuters 

NATO Pledges $1.5 Billion in Military Aid for Ukraine at Vilnius Summit.  Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov published a full list of all military equipment that NATO members pledged for Kyiv at the NATO summit in Vilnius.  He says the new support totals to over $1.5 billion worth of equipment.  The equipment includes: French long-range SCALP missiles and de-mining equipment; 30 Bushmaster armored personnel carriers from Australia; a $782 million aid package from Germany, including 25 Leopard 1A5 tanks, 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, two Patriot air defense vehicles and thousands of rounds of ammunition; 1,000 Black Hornet micro-drones and NASAMS support packages from Norway; over 70 combat vehicles, thousands of rounds of Challenger tank ammunition and a $64.7 million package for the repair of military equipment from the UK; and $410 million in support from Canada.  CNN

Poland to Buy More South Korean Arms.  South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Polish President Andrzej Duda met in Warsaw on Thursday and agreed on further defense cooperation.  Yoon said he agreed to Poland’s plant to acquire more South Korean arms, without elaborating.  Duda added that Poland eventually wants to produce South Korean weapons and defense equipment domestically.  Seoul and Warsaw reached a $13.7 billion arms deal last year, South Korea’s biggest ever, which facilitated the transfer of South Korean rocket launchers and fighter jets to Poland.  Reuters

Asia and Oceania

China Honors Nuclear Submarine, Military Development Units.  Chinese President Xi Jinping signed an order of commendation for a nuclear submarine unit deployed in the South China Sea and an office of the Central Military Commission’s equipment development department, according to China’s state news agency Xinhua.  The submarine unit is stationed at Sanya naval base on China’s southern Hainan island, which hosts Chinese nuclear-armed submarines.  The military development department oversees weapons development and procurement, equipment appraisal, and China’s manned space flight project.  The reasons for the first-class merit citations have not been made public, though experts say the commendation of these particular military units suggest Beijing’s emphasis on strategic deterrence and expansion of its nuclear capabilities.  South China Morning Post 

Marshall Islands Seeking More U.S. Nuclear Legacy Funds.  The foreign minister of the Marshall Islands, Jack Ading, on Thursday called on the U.S. to provide more compensation for past U.S. nuclear testing from 1946 to 1958  in the Pacific island nation in its Compact of Free Association (COFA) agreement.  The Marshall Islands is one of three Pacific Island nations that is covered by COFA agreements, which makes the US responsible for their defense and providing economic assistance.  In exchange, the US gains exclusive access to huge strategic areas of the Pacific, which has become an integral part in the US efforts in containing China’s regional influence.  The economic terms of the Marshall Islands COFA expire this year. U.S. negotiators are seeking to renew it.  The chief U.S. negotiator on the matter, Joe Yun, said he is “puzzled” by the Marshallese position, noting that the current agreement offers $2.3 billion over 20 years and $700 million in a trust fund for nuclear-affected atolls.  When asked for more support, he said “there is no more money.”  Reuters 

Thailand’s Pita Fails to Secure Parliamentary Support in PM Vote.  Thai opposition leader Pita Limjaroenrat failed to secure enough parliamentary votes on Thursday in order to become Thailand’s next prime minister.  Pita, though running unopposed, obtained 324 out of the 376 votes from parliament needed to form a new government.  Many lawmakers voted against Pita or abstained from the vote.  The Thai parliament is expected to hold another vote next week.   Nikkei Asia Reuters CNN

Middle East and Northern Africa

Israel Claims to Have Foiled 50 Iran-Ordered Attacks.  Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Thursday claimed that Israel has foiled over 50 Iranian-orchestrated attacks on Israelis and Jews in recent years.  He said Israeli security services worked in “close cooperation with many countries” to foil the alleged attacks.  His comments came during a trip to Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, which is a key Israeli defense partner on Iran’s border.  Gallant’s remarks also came a day after Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen accused Iran of attempting to attack Israel’s embassy in Baku.  Azerbaijani authorities say they arrested an Afghan national suspected of planning the attack.  Iran has not commented on the matter.  Reuters Times of Israel

Sub Saharan Africa

Iran’s Raisi Ends Africa Tour With Zimbabwe Visit.  Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi concluded his Africa tour with a stop in Zimbabwe, where he oversaw the signing of 12 memorandums of understanding between Zimbabwe and Iran.  The 12 MOUs include agreements on cooperation in the energy, agriculture, pharmaceuticals and telecommunications sectors as well as research and technology collaboration.  Raisi said on his visit that Iran and Zimbabwe should work to forge closer economic ties, in part to counter U.S. sanctions.  Raisi’s visit to Zimbabwe came after earlier stops in Kenya and Uganda.  Associated Press France 24 Reuters

Cyber and Tech

White House Releases National Cybersecurity Strategy Implementation Plan.  The White House has released the initial version of the implementation plan for the National Cybersecurity Strategy, a multiyear effort that will substantially affect the Federal government’s oversight of digital security.   More than 65 initiatives make up the implementation plan’s goals for the “five pillars” of the cyber strategy.  In a news conference, Acting National Cyber Director Kemba Walden described the plan as a “living document” that will evolve in response to “changing threat landscapes, or as initiatives are completed and we get follow on actions.”  A “2.0” version of the plan will be released next year, and other elements will be updated as actions are completed.  Plan initiatives include CISA’s revision of the National Cyber Incident Response Plan, which will include “clear guidance to external partners on the roles and capabilities of federal agencies in incident response and recovery.”  Asked how the strategy operates in circumstances like the recent Chinese cyberespionage campaign against U.S. government agencies, Walden said “the strategy has two pivotal pieces to it: one is to make sure that we are more defensible and that we are more resilient.  …We know cyberattacks are going to happen but that the downtime is going to be quick, and that the impact won’t be catastrophic.  So we need to figure out what investments we need to make.”  Under the plan, the Office of the National Cyber Director will coordinate closely with the Office of Management and Budget to determine funding levels to support implementation actions.  Mark Montgomery, executive director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission, described the plan as an “excellent effort to turn the rhetoric of the strategy into effective, measurable policy objectives.”  He added, however, that he would have preferred a “more full-throated approach to security in cloud computing with either regulation or collective standard setting objectives.”  CyberScoop  The Record  Wall Street Journal  The White House

FTC Investigating OpenAI Products, Practices for Possible Consumer Harm.  The Federal Trade Commission is investigating whether OpenAI, producer of the ChatGPT bot, has put personal reputations and data at risk through the generative AI tool’s production of “false, misleading, disparaging or harmful” statements about people.  A 20-page FTC letter to the company requests records detailing how OpenAI manages risk in its AI products as well as the complaints it has received about erroneous information generated by its chatbot technology.  The FTC is seeking to determine if OpenAI’s practices are unfair or deceptive, resulting in “reputational harm” to consumers.  The agency also is probing a March security incident in which a system flaw allowed users to view payment information and data from the chat histories of other users.  The FTC’s “civil investigative demand” letter, in addition to probing data security and content, includes dozens of questions covering the company’s marketing efforts, its practices for training AI models, and its handling of users’ personal information.  OpenAI and the FTC did not immediately respond to requests for comment sent on Thursday morning.  Washington Post Wall Street Journal New York Times Reuters

Additional Details Emerge on Chinese Hacking Campaign of Government Email Accounts.  The cyberespionage hack of U.S. Government email accounts was carried out by the Chinese threat actor tracked by Microsoft as Storm-0558, which the company described as a “well resourced adversary.”  Although the U.S. agencies affected have not been publicly named, an unidentified source said the email account of Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo was among those breached.  Government departments in West Europe also were impacted in the group’s campaign, which a CISA official described as “tailored, surgical.” CISA confirmed that the hackers accessed and extracted unclassified data from “a small number” of Exchange Online Outlook accounts.  Microsoft said Storm-0558 “is focused on espionage, such as gaining access to email systems for intelligence collection.”  The identity of West European targets of the attacks also is unknown, although Italian cybersecurity officials said they have contacted Microsoft “to identify potential Italian subjects involved in the latest attacks.”  Commenting on U.S. media coverage of the email campaign, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said Wednesday that the U.S., instead of spreading false information, should answer allegations about its attacks targeting China. Wenbin also called the U.S. “the world's largest hacking empire and a cybercriminal.”  The Record   Bloomberg  Wall Street Journal  Washington Post

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