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6:55 PM ET, Thursday, December 7, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

Cameron Tells US Cutting Off Ukraine Would be Gift to Putin, Xi.  British Foreign Secretary David Cameron urged U.S. lawmakers in Washington on Thursday to approve a new package of military aid to Ukraine. This comes as U.S. President Joe Biden has urged Republicans to approve a new package by Christmas, warning that if Russia were to succeed in their invasion, it would leave NATO vulnerable to attack, potentially drawing U.S. troops into a war. Despite the pleas, Senate Republicans blocked Democrat-backed legislation that would have provided billions of dollars of aid to Ukraine and Israel saying that they wanted more focus on border security. Cameron said to lawmakers that he views the Ukrainian war as the greatest test of our generation and added that “if that money doesn't get voted through, there are only two people that will be smiling: one of them is Vladimir Putin in Russia and the other one is Xi Jinping in Beijing”.  Reuters Bloomberg

U.S. to conduct flight operations in Guyana amid escalating tensions with Venezuela. The U.S. said Thursday that it plans to conduct flight operations within Guyana as tension between Guyana and Venezuela have risen over the oil-rich Esequibo region. This comes as Brazil and Britain have expressed their own concerns over the increased tensions which escalated over the weekend when Venezuelan voters rejected the International Court of Justice’s jurisdiction and supported the creation of a new Venezuelan territory. Guyana has since put its armed forces on alert. Britain’s Foreign Office posted to social media that Venezuela’s recent steps were “unjustified and should cease”. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said he was following the situation with increasing concern. “We do not want and we do not need a war in South America” he said. According to a senior military source, Brazil’s intelligence has detected a buildup of Venezuelan armed forces near the Guyana border. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Guyanese President Irfaan Ali Wednesday and reaffirmed the U.S.’s unwavering support for Guyana’s sovereignty. Analysts and sources in Caracas have said that the referendum was an effort by Maduro to gauge support before the 2024 election rather than representing the real likelihood of military action. The U.S. flight operations will be led by the U.S. Southern Command, which has responsibility for South America. Reuters 

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

ANALYSIS- How Israel Is Using Real-Time Battlefield Intelligence to Target Hamas.  Since the terror attacks on October 7, Israel has collected a staggering amount of intelligence that has been used to understand the extent of Hamas’s plans as well as the organization’s tactics, abilities, and information. The Israeli military has reportedly found items that reveal the locations of Hamas installations and tunnels and how they plan to fight underground. A key discovery was a laptop that appeared to show that Hamas aimed to capture areas in Israel on October 7, including a military base south of Tel Aviv. At a briefing Monday, journalists were able to examine many of the materials recovered during the war, many from dead Hamas fighters. The materials include maps, pamphlets, transmitters, phones, video cameras, radios, notebooks, and computers. The various recovered material is reportedly being analyzed by a new Israeli unit responsible for ensuring that the information is transferred to front line troops. Some of the documents detail Hamas tactics and military formations and others included the ages of the fighters in a Hamas unit.. An Israeli official noted that the intelligence gathered has resulted in “small adjustments to the fighting strategy”. When asked by the New York Times, current and former American military and intelligence officials highlighted how critical it is to react quickly to new intelligence in order to ensure a successful mission. This comes as the American government has asked the Israelis to fight more precisely and avoid civilian casualties as they pursue their campaign in the Gaza strip.  New York Times 

Israel Says Hamas Fired Rockets From ‘Humanitarian Zones’.  The Israeli military claimed Thursday that Hamas militants fired rockets from “humanitarian zones” in southern Gaza. The military posted maps, satellite images, and a video it said showed rockets being fired toward Israel from several locations including Al-Mawasi, a barren area in Gaza’s Rafah province that has become densely populated as the Israeli military has directed fleeing civilians to go there. The material released could not be immediately verified. Israeli claims about Al-Mawasi underscored risks of so-called safe zones, something the United Nations has opposed saying that no one party in a conflict can declare places completely safe for civilians in a conflict. U.N. officials have instead urged that civilians be allowed to take shelter in places protected by international law such as schools and hospitals. However Israel has declared such places legitimate targets and accused Hamas of concealing command centers within such buildings. New York Times 

Looting Reported in Southern Gaza as Israel Presses Assault.  As Hamas loses control over the Gaza strip, public order has begun to break down. With the fighting blocking many efforts to deliver humanitarian supplies to Palestinians. In a sign of desperation, residents of Khan Younis broke into a U.N. warehouse and took food supplies which left the U.N. with nothing to distribute Thursday. This comes as the U.N. said Thursday that its operations were close to collapsing and it was unable to send aid beyond the southern city of Rafah. The U.N. said that Israeli military restrictions have made it impossible to deliver aid beyond the small area along the Egyptian border. Gaza residents have reported increased burglaries and looting in the absence of police. Gazans have also reported price-gouging at the few locations that still have goods. Wall Street Journal 

Killing of Reuters Journalist Was ‘Apparently Deliberate’ , Rights Group Alleges.  Human Rights Watch said Thursday that the October 13 strike that killed a Reuters journalist and videographer and injured six others in southern Lebanon appeared to be a deliberate attack. The group said that evidence it had reviewed showed that the journalists were not near areas where fighting was taking place and that there was no military objective near their location. The report said that “the attack on the journalists’ position directly targeted them” and labeled the attack a war crime. Israeli authorities have not responded to the report. On October 13, seven journalists from Reuters, Al Jazeera, and Agence France-Presse were standing on a hilltop in Lebanon and broadcasting cross-border artillery strikes. The Report highlighted that they were wearing blue anti-ballistic jackets marked “Press” and had a car marked “TV”. Additionally, the reporters were visible to the Israeli military location for more than an hour. Amnesty International, another human rights group, said that the journalists were stationary and that marking should have provided enough information to Israeli forces that they were civilians. New York Times 

Top adviser says Mahmoud Abbas privately condemns Hamas.  A senior advisor to Mahmoud Abbas says that the Palestinian Authority president opposes Hamas’ Oct 7 raid into Israel, he cannot publicly condemn Hamas while the war continues in the Gaza strip. Top advisor Mahmoud al-Habbash said in an interview that “President Abbas would have publicly condemned Hamas repeatedly” if Israel did not launch its “aggression” in Gaza. He added that asking any Palestinian leader to publicly condemn Hamas during the war is “nonsense”. Al-Habbash added that President Abbas has said in more than 70 phone calls and meetings with world leaders that he is against what Hamas did on October 7 and that Hamas is not representative of the Palestinian people’. Al Jazeera 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Carries On Fight While Pondering an Erosion of U.S. Aid.  Following the failure of the U.S. to approve more military assistance for Ukraine, Ukrainian officials continue the fight against Russia in the south and east of the country. Officials in Kyiv are still hopeful that the United States will provide more aid but given the consequences, they are trying to bolster the country’s own military capabilities and deepen ties with allies who remain strong in their support. The head of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council said Thursday morning, hours after Republicans in the U.S. Senate blocked a Ukrainian assistance package, that however voting might go in other countries, “we will not stop defending our country”. He added that the goal now is to make Ukraine’s military so strong that Ukrainians will not be “hostages” to changing political situations. In response to the block, U.S. President Joe Biden criticized Republican lawmakers for “kneecapping” an ally in their time of need. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan noted that a shortfall in funding could endanger Ukrainian air defense capabilities. Sullivan added that the supply of 155 millimeter artillery rounds, a capability that has been critical throughout the war, would also rapidly decrease. New York Times 

Russia’s Disinformation Tactic Exploits American Celebrities.  The Kremlin reportedly recruited unwitting western celebrities such as Eliah Wood and Mike Tyson to unleash an information campaign against Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky, pushing the false narrative that he is suffering from alcohol and drug issues. Recordings show celebrities urging the President to enter treatment for alcohol and drug abuse. Videos were recorded through the popular app Cameo, where users can pay for personalized messages from celebrities. Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center released a report on Thursday saying that Elijah Wood’s video and others like it started circulating through Russian social media and were ultimately featured by state-controlled Russian news organizations. Other celebrities included in the information campaign include: Shavo Odadjian, John McGinley, Dean Norris, Priscilla Presley, and Kate Flannery. This campaign is a part of Russian efforts to build support for the war at home and paint President Zelensky as a drug-addicted neo-Nazi.  New York Times 

ANALYSIS- Ukraine mounts acts of sabotage in Siberia. Ukrainian operatives reportedly blew up two trains in east Siberia believed to be used to transport North Korean ordinance to the front lines in Ukraine. So far, North Korea is believed to have delivered more than a million artillery shells to Russia for support in its war against Ukraine. Allegedly, a freight train caught fire in the Severomuysky tunnel on November 29. The train, traveling on one of the two railways connecting Russia and China was believed to be transporting 44 cars of refined fuel,at least three of which were destroyed. A successful detonation of the entire train may have destroyed the tunnel, which appeared to be the goal of the saboteurs. The FSB, in response say they have arrested a Belarusian man it said planted the explosives on behalf of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU). Expecting that trains would be re-routed through a northern pass, the SBU had allegedly staged another explosion for a second fuel train as it passed over a bridge, reportedly destroying four fuel tanks.  Al Jazeera

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

EU Negotiators Agree To Extend AI Act Talks To Resolve Areas of Dispute.  EU legislators engaged in marathon discussions of the community’s AI Act will resume talks on Friday after failing to reach agreement on sensitive parts of the landmark legislation.  Negotiators had worked through the night to resolve differences over key provisions, including the guidelines surrounding development of generative AI language models. European markets minister Thierry Breton posted on X that “lots of progress made over the past 22 hours on the AI Act.  Resuming work with EU Parliament and Council at 9:00 am.  Stay tuned!”  Participants in the talks reportedly reached provisional agreement on regulations for generative AI systems like ChatGPT.   These rules would empower the European Commission to maintain a list of AI models that pose a "systemic risk" while requiring developers of general-purpose AI systems to publish detailed summaries of language model training content.  Remaining areas of disagreement, such as the use of AI in biometric surveillance, and source code access have not yet been resolved, according to sources.   EU leadership and member countries are attempting to arrive at a final deal leading up to a springtime vote, ahead of June parliamentary elections.  A proposal offered by France, Germany and Italy allowing for self-regulation by makers of generative AI models has triggered tensions in the negotiations.  It is interpreted by some as a move that would uniquely benefit France’s Mistral AI company and Germany's Aleph Alpha.  The dispute over biometric surveillance pits EU lawmakers who want to ban the use of AI against government representatives who have pushed for exceptions for national security, defense and military needs.  Reuters   TNW   Wall Street Journal

UK Summons Russian Ambassador Over FSB Cyber Campaign To Undermine Institutions.  Britain has accused Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) of employing cyberattacks to undermine democratic institutions, a campaign the government described as “sustained but unsuccessful.”  Speaking to the House of Commons, Minister of State for Europe Leo Docherty reported that the Russian ambassador had been summoned to discuss the influence operation.  Dating back to 2015, high-profile politicians of several parties have had their personal email accounts targeted in the campaign along with hundreds of other individuals.  A group identified as Calisto has been identified by the British government as belonging to the FSB’s Centre 18. Two FSB officers linked to the campaign – Ruslan Peretyatko and Andrew Korinets – have been added to Britain’s Cyber Sanctions list.  Supporting statements for the UK’s action are expected to be issued by the U.S. and European Union on Thursday.  Microsoft published a blog report providing details of the group's activities while warning “the actor continues to refine their tradecraft to evade detection.”  TheRecord

Massive Bootup Vulnerability on Most Consumer Devices Revealed at Black Hat Conference.  Vulnerabilities that affect almost all consumer devices on the market have been identified by the Binarly cybersecurity firm in a presentation to the Black Hat Europe conference.  The vulnerabilities would allow hackers to circumvent most modern security checks through the logo that appears with computer start-ups.  The vulnerabilities impact all x86 and ARM-based devices, like Windows and Linux, through the software displaying manufacturer logos in the bootup process.  Binarly CEO Alex Matrosov said “LogoFAIL” flaws extend to 95 percent of consumer devices and involve the BIOS startup software produced by the largest vendore, AMI, Insyde Software, and Phoenix Technologies.  The flaws occur when an image parser loads a logo with different image formats such as PNG’s, GIF’s, or JPEG’s, which Matrosov says are riddled with vulnerabilities.  In order to use the flaw to execute an arbitrary code, hackers only need to change the image file to a malicious one.  Coinciding with Binarly’s release of its research on Wednesday, several affected manufacturers rolled out patches to correct the vulnerabilities.  The vulnerabilities discovered by Binarly would permit hackers to execute code with little to no restrictions before antivirus or endpoint detection could detect it.   CyberScoop   Ars Technica   SecurityWeek

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Blinken explains his reaction to Biden calling Xi a ‘dictator’.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken attempted to explain his reaction in a viral video of him where he appeared to wince when President Joe Biden called Chinese President Xi Jinping a “dictator”. When asked about the event on CNN, Blinken attributed it to a stiff neck. “I’m tempted to say that we’d had a really long day, a very important and intense conversation with China. My neck was a little bit stiff. And, you know, that happens” he said. Blinken added that “it’s not exactly a secret that we have a very different system from China’s. The president always speaks very clearly, very directly, and he speaks for everyone,”. President Biden’s remarks follow the November 15 meeting with Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting aimed at easing tensions between the two nations. The day after the remarks, China’s foreign ministry denounced the remark and called it “irresponsible political manipulation”. Politico

Putin moves a step closer to a fifth term as president after Russia sets 2024 election date.  Members of Russia’s Federation Council, the country’s upper house of parliament, voted unanimously Thursday to set the date of Russia’s 2024 Presidential election for March 17, a step moving Vladimir Putin closer to his fifth term in office. Putin has not announced his presidential bid but is expected to do so soon now that there is a date set for the election. Putin is currently eligible for two more six-year presidential terms, potentially allowing him to remain in power until 2036. Putin is widely expected to secure his reelection as he wields stiff control over the country’s political system and all prominent opposition leaders are either in jail or living abroad and most independent media have been outlawed. Associated
Press 

Rights Group Says 600 North Korean defectors deported by China 'vanish'.  Seoul-based human rights group Transitional Justice Working Group (TJWG) said Thursday that up to 600 North Korean defectors are thought to have “vanished” after being deported from China in October. The group warned that they may face imprisonment, torture, sexual violence, and execution. This report comes roughly two months after South Korea protested against China’s decision to deport the large number of defectors who were attempting to flee to South Korea. TJWG said that the defectors were transported in guarded buses and vans from Chinese detention centers into the North on October 9, calling it the largest mass repatriation in years. Beijing denied that they were “so-called defectors” but said they had entered the country for economic reasons and the situation had been handled according to law.  Reuters 

Greece and Turkey agree to improve relations.  Turkey and Greece agreed Thursday to restore relations, establishing a plan to establish closer ties between the two NATO allies who are also historical adversaries. During the landmark visit of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan to Greece, the two nations agreed to focus on pursuing good-willed relations, keep open channels of communication, boost trade, seek military confidence-building measures, and work on issues that have divided them in the past particularly the Aegean sea. “There is no issue between us that is unsolvable,” Erdogan said after meeting with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Athens. Relations between the two countries have begun to improve since Greece sent aid to Turkey in the wake of the devastating February earthquake. The meeting between Erdogan and Mitsotakis lasted longer than expected with Mitsotakis addressing Erdogan afterwards as “Dear Tayyip”. Erdogan said he plans to receive Mitsotakis in Ankara soon.  Reuters 

The data cutoff for this product was 3:00p.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ken Hughes and Leighton Durham contributed to this report. 

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