4:00 PM ET, Thursday, December 21, 2023
Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world.
Here’s what’s happening now:
THE TOP STORIES
Top Chinese, U.S. Generals speak for first time in over a year. The Pentagon said that U.S. chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force General CQ Brown held a virtual meeting with his Chinese counterpart, General Liu Zhenli, on Thursday. It was the first such talk between the two top military officers in over a year. Brown’s office said he and Liu discussed “a number of global and regional security issues,” the importance of managing competition and maintaining “open and direct lines of communication” to avoid “misunderstandings.” Brown said last month that he sent an introductory letter to Liu saying he is open to a meeting. Pentagon officials have been working to establish stronger military communications to prevent miscalculations that could escalate into conflict. Tensions remain high over Taiwan, the South China Sea, and the aftermath of the Chinese spy balloon. Liu is a potential candidate to replace China’s national defense minister, General Li Shangfu, who was removed from the position last month. Li was sanctioned by the U.S. for his role in a 2018 arms deal with Russia, while Liu is not under Western sanctions. Reuters Bloomberg Politico
Hungary’s Orban says Russian invasion of Ukraine not war. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on Thursday questioned whether Russia’s invasion of Ukraine should be called a “war” and instead called it a “military operation,” using Russian President Vladimir Putin’s terminology to describe the conflict. He claimed that it isn’t a war since there has not been a formal declaration of war between Russia and Ukraine and noted that it is good there has not been a declaration since that would lead to a “general mobilization.” Orban previously called Russia’s invasion a “military operation” when he met with Putin in October in Beijing. Orban told reporters on Thursday that he is willing to call the invasion a “war” the next time he meets Putin. Separately, Orban said he has accepted an invitation by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for a bilateral meeting in the future, which would be their first since the start of Russia’s invasion. Orban also said that E.U. funding for Ukraine should not come from the E.U. budget and that a “sensible” timeline should be set for Ukraine financing. Hungary has blocked a move to include a 50 billion euro aid package for Ukraine as part of the E.U. budget. Kyiv Independent Bloomberg Reuters Financial Times Associated Press Washington Post
Russia’s foreign minister tours North Africa. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met President Kais Saied and Tunisia’s foreign minister in Tunis on Thursday as part of a North Africa tour. Lavrov first visited Morocco to attend the Arab-Russian Cooperation Forum earlier this week. The forum, which was scheduled before the Hamas attacks against Israel on October 7, signed a joint declaration on Wednesday that expressed support for Palestinians amid Israeli military actions in Gaza. Lavrov’s visit to the region comes amid diminishing popularity of Western powers over their support for Israel as it continues military operations in Gaza. Russia is taking advantage of the shift in opinion to spread its narrative about issues like Ukraine and Gaza and strengthen energy and agriculture trade with North African countries. Associated Press
ISRAEL HAMAS WAR
U.S. raises concern over U.N. Security Council vote on Gaza pause in fighting. The U.S. said it still has serious concerns with the current draft of the U.N. Security Council resolution on Gaza that calls for “urgent humanitarian pauses” to increase aid deliveries into the enclave. The U.S. said it has specific concerns with the resolution’s proposal for a U.N. aid monitoring mechanism which several Arab nations are insisting must be included. The U.S. said it could take away Israel’s control of the screening of aid and could “actually slow down” aid deliveries into Gaza. Israel currently monitors all aid and fuel deliveries into Gaza. Norwegian Refugee Council Secretary General Jan Egeland disagreed with the U.S.’s opposition, arguing that monitoring of aid should not remain with Israel because it is a party in the conflict. The U.S. has asked for another delay on the vote on the resolution to negotiate with Egypt on the monitoring mechanism. Reuters BBC
U.N. reports over 1 in 4 people in Gaza ‘starving’ due to war. The U.N. and other agencies report that 570,000 people in Gaza — a quarter of the population — are starving and the entire 2.3 million population of Gaza faces crisis levels of hunger. The report says that the proportion of households in Gaza affected by high levels of acute food security is the largest ever recorded globally, even surpassing the near-famines in Afghanistan and Yemen in recent years. The report warns that the risk of famine is “increasing each day.” The report blamed the hunger on insufficient aid entering Gaza. U.N. agencies say only 10% of Gaza’s food needs has been entering the territory for weeks. Aid has almost solely come through the Rafah crossing with Egypt. Israel began allowing aid deliveries through its Kerem Shalom crossing, but an explosion hit the Palestinian side on Thursday morning, forcing the U.N. to stop aid pickups there. Health officials said at least four people were killed in the blast, which Palestinian authorities blamed on Israel. Its cause could not immediately be confirmed. Around 1.9 million people in Gaza — over 80% of the population — have been displaced from their homes. The World Health Organization reports that only nine of Gaza’s 36 health facilities are still partially functioning. Associated Press Reuters Al Jazeera Washington Post
UAE foreign minister meets Palestinian official in Abu Dhabi. United Arab Emirates Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan met Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) Secretary General Hussein Sheikh in Abu Dhabi on Thursday to discuss efforts for a ceasefire in Gaza and the enclave’s humanitarian crisis. In the meeting, Sheikh Abdullah reportedly emphasized the importance of working towards a two-state solution. The UAE is one of few Arab states with diplomatic relations with Israel. It has condemned both the Hamas attacks on October 7 and Israel’s bombardment of Gaza and has pushed for a ceasefire. Reuters
Canada’s Trudeau warns that Israel’s long-term safety at risk from its military actions in Gaza. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Israel’s allies are “increasingly concerned” that Israel’s military actions in Gaza could put its long-term safety and diplomatic support at risk. In an interview with CBC, Trudeau said Canada, Australia, and “especially the U.S.” are concerned about the impact of Israel’s “short-term actions” in its war against Hamas, referring to rising civilian casualties in Gaza. Trudeau’s remarks come after Canada, Australia, and New Zealand called for a “sustainable ceasefire” in Gaza last week and after President Joe Biden warned that Israel is starting to lose international support due to its “indiscriminate bombing” in Gaza. CBC Reuters
More shipping companies announce they are avoiding the Red Sea. Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd and Hong Kong’s OOCL said Thursday that they would be avoiding the Red Sea, making them the most recent companies to say they are pausing shipments through the area in response to attacks on commercial vessels by Yemen’s Houthis. Hapag-Lloyd said it would be rerouting 25 ships by the end of the year. Avoiding the Red Sea and Suez Canal forces vessels to take a longer route around Africa, which adds roughly 10 days to the journey. Analysts have said that shipping delays could cause supply shortages by February. In the meantime, traders are trying to find alternatives including air travel to get goods to consumers. Shipping companies are still avoiding the Red Sea despite the announcement of a U.S.-led multinational naval force to protect shipping in the region. The companies and maritime security officials say that uncertainty over when the force will be deployed and its rules of engagement has kept shipping from immediately returning to the area. Reuters
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukraine says Russia has fired 7,400 missiles, launched 3,700 Shahed drones in invasion. Ukraine said on Thursday that Russia has launched 7,400 missiles and 3,700 Iranian-made Shahed drones at targets in Ukraine during its invasion. A Ukrainian Air Force spokesman said that Ukrainian air defenses have downed 1,600 of the missiles and 2,900 of the drones. The spokesperson noted that the low rate of missile downings was due to Russia’s use of supersonic ballistic missiles, which are more difficult to intercept, and the fact that the West gave advanced Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine months into the war. The spokesperson also highlighted Russia’s increasing use of Shahed drones, saying that ten to 15 regions down Shaheds every night. Ukraine’s air defenses have been gradually bolstered through the war as it received more advanced air defense systems, including Patriots. Russia claims that it does not hit civilian targets, but its missile and drone attacks have hit infrastructure facilities and residential areas. Reuters
Germany announces new winter aid package for Ukraine. Germany will provide Ukraine with an additional €85.5 million ($94 million) in aid to help the country cope with winter and withstand potential Russian attacks on critical infrastructure. The funds, jointly procured from the Foreign Ministry and the Economy Ministry, will be used for spare parts for critical energy infrastructure, repairs, and equipment like generators and transformers. Moreover, the funds will support Ukraine's "green reconstruction" by replacing outdated equipment with modern, sustainable energy infrastructure. Russia previously attempted to disrupt Ukraine's energy infrastructure during the fall and winter of 2022-2023, leading to frequent blackouts and heating shortages. Germany's total commitment to supporting Ukraine's energy infrastructure now stands at €218 million ($240 million). Kyiv Independent
Switzerland announces winter aid for Ukraine. Switzerland has announced a new CHF 11.5 million ($13.3 million) winter aid package for Ukraine, bringing the total Swiss winter assistance to approximately CHF 26 million ($30 million). The Swiss funds will support NGOs operating near Ukraine's front lines, focusing on repairing damaged civilian infrastructure, delivering heating materials, and ensuring the availability of clean water supplies. Some of the aid will also go to Ukraine's State Emergency Service and UN programs, providing cold-weather clothing, supplies, and direct cash payments to those affected or displaced by the conflict. Switzerland had previously allocated CHF 54 million ($62 million) in 2022 through the World Bank for rebuilding in Ukraine, particularly aimed at repairing energy infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks. Kyiv Independent
E.U. sends the last financial assistance for Kyiv for 2023. The EU has disbursed the final tranche of 1.5 billion euros ($1.6 billion) as part of the 18 billion euro ($19.6 billion) Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) package for Ukraine in 2023. The assistance aims to support Ukraine in paying for essential public services, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and rebuilding critical infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the importance of finding an agreement to continue providing Ukraine with the necessary support for recovery and reform. Hungary had previously blocked a 50 billion euro ($55 billion) EU package on December 15, prompting EU leaders to explore alternative options if unanimity is not achieved. The European Council says it will reconvene in February to discuss the funding package. Kyiv Independent
Russian oligarch Abramovich loses appeal for removal from E.U. sanctions list. Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich lost his appeal to be removed from a E.U. sanctions list on Wednesday. Abramovich, who has an estimated net worth of around $9 billion, and other top Russian oligarchs were sanctioned after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Abramovich filed a challenge against the sanctions at the E.U. court in Brussels, arguing that he had no influence over the Kremlin’s decision making and that his business interests were not connected to the war. The court disputed that his businesses do not benefit the Russian government, noting that he owns a stake in the Evraz steel company that provides government revenues. Abramovich has reportedly participated in peace negotiations shortly after the start of Russia’s invasion and has supported negotiations for a prisoner exchange. Kyiv Independent
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Europe
Prague university shooting kills 15 people. A mass shooting at Charles University in Prague killed at least 15 people and injured 24 others on Thursday. Czech authorities say the gunman acted alone and was a student and is among the dead. Czech police gave no details about a possible motive for the shooting. Czech Interior Minister Vit Rakusan said there is currently no evidence of links to extremist ideology or groups. Associated Press Bloomberg CNN Reuters
The Americas
U.S. to investigate domestic supply chain chip reliance on China. The United States Department of Commerce has announced a review of how American companies procure semiconductors manufactured in China, with a focus on legacy chips crucial to various industries. Starting in January, the assessment aims to gather information on US companies' reliance on Chinese-made chips, particularly those used in telecommunications, automotive, and defense. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo expressed concerns about potential practices by the People's Republic of China to expand legacy chip production, creating challenges for US companies. The collected data will inform strategies to strengthen diverse and resilient semiconductor supply chains. A recent bipartisan House Select Committee report recommended imposing import duties on legacy semiconductors from China to prevent undue influence on the global economy. South China Morning Post
Biden, Mexico’s Lopez Obrador discuss migration issues. President Joe Biden held a phone call with Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on Thursday. The White House said the two leaders agreed that more enforcement at the U.S.-Mexico border is needed to stem migratory flows. The call after U.S. agricultural groups on Wednesday urged the U.S. to reopen two rail crossings on the Texas-Mexico border which were closed due to rising migrant crossings. The move followed a temporary suspension of expulsions of migrants by Mexican immigration authorities due to end-of-year funding issues. The White House said it is working with Mexico to resolve the border closures. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and U.S. Homeland Security advisor Elizabeth Sherwood-Randall will visit Mexico in the coming days to meet Lopez Obrador to discuss the migrant and trade issues. Reuters
Venezuela opposition confirms release of 24 Venezuelans in U.S. prisoner swap. Venezuela’s opposition presidential candidate Maria Corina Machado said on Thursday that Venezuelan authorities released 24 Venezuelans as part of a prisoner exchange with the U.S. Washington granted clemency to Colombian businessman Alex Saab, an ally of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, in exchange for the release of 10 Americans and at least 20 opposition-linked Venzuelans, as well as the extradition of a fugitive defense contractor involved in a major U.S. military corruption scandal. U.S. prosecutors accused Saab of siphoning around $350 million from the Venezuelan government in a money laundering scheme. The prisoner swap came after the U.S. said it would allow some sanctions relief after Maduro agreed to work towards a free and fair presidential election in Venezuela in 2024. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
New Chinese export rules extend to laser radars, drones, biotechnology. A new set of Chinese export controls expands restrictions to key technology sectors, including radars, drones, and biotechnology. The updated listing of technology export restrictions issued by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Commerce takes effect immediately. Described as a means to “safeguard national security, the public interest or public morality,” the new rules apply to laser radars, crop hybridization, human cell cloning and gene editing, as well as bulk cargo handling. The export restriction catalog also expands several existing sectors, including technologies used in the manufacture of optical/infrared sensors, synthetic aperture radars and laser radars, and other components for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV). UAV flight control systems as well as algorithms and software for autonomous navigation, path planning and obstacle avoidance are included in the export controls. South China Morning Post
Chinese and Russian military officials vow to strengthen strategic cooperation. Chinese and Russian military officials held talks in Beijing, expressing a commitment to strengthen strategic coordination. The meeting marked the 22nd round of "strategic consultations" between the two countries, with a focus on the international and regional security situation. The Chinese defense ministry stated that both sides would work to implement the consensus reached by Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin, enhancing strategic coordination to contribute to regional and global peace and stability. While details of the participants were not provided, the talks come as China and Russia deepen their ties. The meeting also follows joint air patrols over the Sea of Japan involving Chinese and Russian warplanes, prompting responses from South Korea and Japan. South China Morning Post
Africa
Angola withdraws from OPEC. Angola is withdrawing from OPEC due to dissatisfaction with the organization’s decision to reduce oil output quotas for certain members, including Angola. The departure comes after Saudi Arabia’s move in June to lower quotas for Angola and Nigeria while increasing them for the UAE. Angola has experienced a nearly 40% decline in oil output over the last eight years and has said the lowering of quotas is detrimental to attracting investment. Although experts say that Angola’s departure from OPEC is unlikely to immediately significantly impact the organization, it highlights difficulties the group faces in balancing member interests amid rising global oil production. Bloomberg Financial Times New York Times Reuters
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
China imposes export ban on rare earth processing technologies. China has expanded on previous rare earth exports by banning processing technologies for the materials, which are key ingredients in defense and energy products. The Chinese commerce ministry announced Thursday that the export ban would apply to technologies used in rare earth extraction and separation and in some rare earth magnets. Earlier this year China imposed requirements for permits on exports of gallium, germanium, and graphite. Data from the International Energy Agency indicates that Chinese mining operations yield about 60 percent of the world’s rare earth materials, and nearly 90 percent of processing and refining output. Reuters reports that the ban biggest impact will be in "heavy rare earths" that are used in electric vehicle motors, medical devices and weaponry. Nathan Picarsic, co-founder of the geopolitical consulting firm Horizon Advisory, said "this should be a clarion call that dependence on China in any part of the value chain is not sustainable." Financial TimesReuters Bloomberg
Chinese legacy chip dominance prompts U.S. review of semiconductor supply chain. The Commerce Department announced today that it will conduct a survey of the U.S. semiconductor supply chain to determine how American companies are sourcing current-generation and mature semiconductors, also known as legacy chips. Commerce said the survey, which begins in January, will focus on the use and sourcing of Chinese-manufactured legacy chips in critical U.S. industries with the aim of reducing “national security risks.” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said the department in recent years has seen “potential signs of concerning practices” by China to expand legacy chip production that threatens the competitiveness of U.S. firms. Raimondo added that "addressing non-market actions by foreign governments that threaten the U.S. legacy chip supply chain is a matter of national security." China's embassy in Washington did not immediately comment on the supply chain survey. Reuters South China Morning Post
Ukraine hackers breach largest Russian private water utility, seize internal data. A Ukrainian hacktivist group, Blackjack, reportedly has breached systems at one of Russia’s largest private water utilities and seized 1.5TB of data. The Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported that the Blackjack hackers were likely aided by Ukraine’s SBU security service in the attack on Rosvodokanal. Sources indicated that the utility’s IT infrastructure was destroyed during the attack which encrypted 6,000 computers and 50TB of data that included corporate emails and backups. The 1.5TB of data that was seized during the operation is being examined by SBU cyber specialists. Rosvodokanal, which is part of Alpha Group, one of Russia’s largest private enterprises, supplies water to 7 million consumers. Cybernews RBC-Ukraine
Navy maritime drone technology could be used by new Red Sea coalition. AI-enabled maritime drone technologies that have been tested and refined by the Navy’s Task Force 59 are being considered for deployment to the multinational naval coalition forming to protect Red Sea shipping from threats by Houthi rebels. DoD officials said the newly announced Operation Prosperity Guardian, which will combine assets of an undisclosed number of countries to counter Houthi attacks on shipping, could make use of uncrewed systems developed by the Navy task force. Officials told DefenseScoop that while Task Force 59 will not be directly involved in the coalition, the drone technologies it developed could be employed in the multinational effort. According to a senior U.S. Central Command official, ongoing efforts in the region demonstrate how Task Force 59 “successfully integrated unmanned capabilities” into conventional fleet operations, and show how “a broader bench of capability” can support activities where needed. DefenseScoop
The data cutoff for this product was 3:00 p.m. E.T.
Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, and Ken Hughes contributed to this report.
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