6:00 PM ET, Thursday, August 3, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Biden calls for immediate release of Nigerien President Bazoum. US President Joe Biden called for the immediate release of Niger’s President Bazoum on Thursday in what marks Biden’s first public comments on the political crisis gripping the African country. In a statement, Biden said “The Nigerien people have the right to choose their leaders. They have expressed their will through free and fair elections – and that must be respected”. The US has not formally designated the situation a coup, as doing so would require the US to cut military and foreign assistance to the country. Biden’s statement comes amid ongoing diplomatic efforts by the US and other countries. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly spoke with Bazoum yesterday by phone and the State Department has ordered all non-emergency personnel to leave the country. The Embassy remains officially open and the US military presence in the country, roughly 1100 strong, will remain for now though are restricted to US bases, according to US officials. CNN Al Jazeera
Two US Navy Sailors charged with Sharing Secrets with China. US officials on Thursday announced that two US Navy sailors have been arrested on charges of handing over sensitive national security material to China. Jinchao Wei, a 22-year old sailor, was arrested on Wednesday on charges related to espionage involving conspiracy to send national defense information to Chinese officials. The Justice department alleges that Wei made contact with a Chinese government intelligence officer in February 2022, providing photographs and video of the ship he served on, as well as technical and mechanical manuals. Wei also provided details on the number and training of Marines for an upcoming exercise. In a separate case, US Navy sailor Wenheng Zhao was charged with collecting bribes in exchange for giving sensitive military photos and videos to a Chinese intelligence officer between August 2021 to May 2023. It is unclear if the two cases are connected or if they were paid by the same Chinese intelligence officer. Reuters says that contact details for the two accused could not be located, and added that the Chinese embassy did not respond to a request for comment. Reuters Associated Press
Western Europe
Germany turns down Ukraine’s request for long-range missiles. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius says that Germany will not send the Taurus air-to-surface long-range long-range missile to Ukraine. Kyiv made the request in May of this year. Pistorius made the comments during a visit to a German military facility where he added that Berlin’s concerns with sending the missile, which has a reported range of over 500 kilometers, were “obvious”. Germany’s official position has so far been that they are committed to aiding Ukraine in defending itself from Russia’s invasion, but have stopped short of providing weapons that Kyiv could use to launch attacks inside of mainland Russia. Deutsche Welle
France could overtake Russia as the world’s No. 2 arms exporter. France24 is out with a new report that examines France’s growing international defense industry. Citing recent examples of major defense purchases of French military hardware by India and Qatar, some analysts have suggested that France could overtake Russia as the world’s number 2 arms exporter. A report published in March of this year by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) says that France’s share of the global arms trade rose, during the period of 2018-2022 to 11%, compared to 7% for the previous four-year period. Russia’s percentage dropped to 16% from 22% during the same period according to the report. Analysts say reasons vary for Russia’s decline, but say that most of the reasons are directly related to the Ukraine war. France24
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine seeks global support for peace blueprint in Saudi talks. Ukraine and its allies are aiming to rally global support over a peace blueprint in talks hosted by Saudi Arabia. Western and Ukrainian diplomats are hoping the meeting in Jeddah of senior officials from some 40 countries will settle on key principles that would serve as a foundation for any peace settlement to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said on Wednesday that he hopes for the world to endorse the principles, based on his 10-point formula for a peace settlement. The 10 point formula includes a call for the full restoration of Ukraine's territorial integrity, withdrawal of Russian troops, safe release of all prisoners of war, and the protection of food and energy supplies. Ukrainian and Russian officials have said that there is no prospect of direct peace talks between the two countries at the moment. The peace summit will not include Russia, and whether or not China will attend is still unknown. Ukraine is aiming at building a bigger coalition of diplomatic support for its vision of peace beyond its core backers in the West by reaching out to countries like India, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa. Reuters
EU announces new sanctions on Belarus. The European Council announced new sanctions on Belarus on Thursday. EU officials say the new restrictions are designed to more closely align sanctions against Russia and Belarus, and that the new measures specifically seek to eliminate opportunities for Russian sanctions to be circumvented through Belarus. The new sanctions were announced in a statement that read in part “The measures expand the ban on exports to Belarus to a number of highly sensitive goods and technologies which contribute to Belarus's military and technological enhancement”. CNN
Coordinates arson attacks hit military enlistment offices across Russia, authorities say. CNN reports that Russian authorities say a string of arson attacks have occurred throughout Russia over the last two days. Russian authorities say that perpetrators of the attacks all come from social vulnerable backgrounds, and are victims of a coordinated phone scam operation that coerces victims into carrying out the arson attacks through financial manipulation. So far 10 incidents have been reported, all occurring at Russian military enlistment centers across Russia. CNN
Land mines placed among bodies of Russian troops at abandoned positions. Ukrainian soldiers in the Zaporizhzhia region have reported finding a PM mine between two Russian soldiers' bodies. 47-year-old Volodymyr is tasked with one of the most dangerous jobs in Ukraine, removing landmines at the front. He says the position of the bodies made him suspicious, as the two Russian troops were lying on top of one another. Ukrainian forces reached between the bodies with a ‘kitten’, a folding steel hook used to dislodge booby traps, and a mine went off. No Ukrainian soldiers were injured. Occupying Russian soldiers have placed landmines and booby traps across hundreds of miles of Ukraine’s front, this tactic is what has caused the Ukrainian counteroffensive to move slowly, according to Kyiv’s commanders. Reuters
Romania to Clear 30 Ukrainian ships in Danube River. Romania expects about 30 Ukrainian ships to clear customs on the Danube river over the next few days following the aftermath of a Russian attack on Ukraine’s main port at Izmail. Romanian President Klaus Iohannis has denounced Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure on the Danube river, calling them war crimes. Apart from the vessels waiting near the Romanian port of Constanta, an additional 20 commercial vessels have stopped in the Danube channel leading up to the Ukrainian port of Izmail. Further down, another 30 ships have dropped anchor around Musura bay in the Black Sea. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
Significant Drop in Western Tourism and Business Travel to China. A significant drop in western tourism and direct foreign investment into China poses significant challenges as Beijing attempts to navigate a full post-COVID reopening. China’s economy is suffering from high levels of unemployment, especially among younger workers, fears of deflation and slow economic growth, which, combined with the drops in foreign travel pose real long-term economic challenges for China analysts say. Contributing factors to the lack of western visitors include a shortage of available flights, US warnings to its citizens against traveling to China and a view by some that Beijing is pushing a very overt anti-western message. Wall Street Journal
Analysis- What Are North Korea’s Nuclear-Weapon Capabilities and Is the Threat Expanding? The Wall Street Journal is out with a lengthy analysis of North Korea’s growing nuclear weapons program. Citing recent reports and declassified analysis, the report examines the types of missiles Pyongyang currently possess and describes the recent tests and possible limitations of North Korea’s weapons programs, while describing in detail what is known of the current capabilities, including the potential for North Korea’s missiles to reach the continental United States. Wall Street Journal
At least 14 wounded in stabbing rampage and car ramming near Seoul. At least 14 people were injured on Thursday in a stabbing and car rampage in Seongnam, South Korea. Gyeonggi Province government member Lee Ki-in stated that five people were injured after the suspect drove their vehicle into the pedestrian walkway before stabbing nine people. At least 12 of the 14 were seriously injured in the attack and were taken to nearby hospitals. The Seoul police have arrested 33 year old Cho Sun on charges of murder and attempted murder, as well as fraud and theft. Police in Seongnam have not responded to requests for more details about the attack or of the suspect. The Commissioner General of the National Police Agency, Yoon Hee Keun, stated on Thursday that the Seongnam attack was being treated as a “terrorist act”. CNN New York Times
Russian Army Ads appear in neighboring Kazakhstan. Advertisements offering immediate payment of over $5,000 to join the Russian army have appeared in Kazakhstan as the Ukrainian conflict rages on. The ads are reportedly targeting Kazakhs with slogans such as “shoulder to shoulder” featuring Russian and Kazakh flags. The ads promise a one-off payment of 495,000 Russian roubles ($5,300) to those who sign a contract with the Russian military, along with a monthly salary of at least 190,000 roubles ($2,000) with undisclosed benefits. Joining a military conflict for pay is considered illegal under Kazakh law. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Information and Social development did not reply to a request for comment by Reuters. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
U.S. Could Offer Armed Troops to Protect Commercial Vessels in Strait of Hormuz. US officials stated on Thursday that the US could soon offer to put armed sailors and Marines on commercial ships sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement comes after alleged attempts by Iran to hijack ships in international waters. Last month, the Iranian government seized a commercial tanker, citing an order from an Iranian court to seize the tanker. The US Navy has had to intervene in the past in order to prevent Iran from seizing two commercial tankers in the Gulf of Oman. The official stated that it would ultimately be up to the commercial vessels to request troops for parts of the journey through the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters
Leader of Islamic State Killed, Replacement Named. The Islamic State’s spokesperson announced on Thursday the death of its leader, Abu Hussein al-Husseini al-Quraishi. The group has named Abu Hafs al-Hashimi al-Quraishi as his replacement, but no further details have been released. This appears to be the group’s official announcement regarding al-Husseini since Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan announced in April that Turkish intelligence forces had killed him in Syria. Reuters
Israeli Reservists start Missing Duty in Response to Judicial Overhaul Bill. Thousands of Israeli military reservists have reportedly begun to follow through on a threat to suspend their services if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu passes the first part of a judicial overhaul bill. Reservists claim that the legislation undermines Israel’s liberal democracy, thus breaking the social contract for which they put their lives at risk for. It is unclear how many are taking part in the strike, but those involved reporteldy include flight instructors, naval reservist commanders, intelligence and cyber specialists, active fighter pilots, drone operators, and navigators. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated “the damage to fitness is limited, but there is a possibility of damage to fitness in the long term”. The Israeli military has declined to comment when asked how many reservists have suspended their service. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has called the protests undemocratic with some of the members in his coalition calling it an attempted military coup. Wall Street Journal
Challenge to Israeli law protecting PM from removal goes to Supreme Court. Israel’s Supreme Court heard a petition against an amendment to a law that was passed in March by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The hearing was held as protests against Netanyahu continue over his government’s push to overhaul the judiciary. The amendment limits the reasons for removing a prime minister from office due to physical or mental incapacitation, which may benefit Netanyahu, who is currently facing corruption charges while pursuing judicial changes. The petitioner is the Movement for Quality Government in Israel who argues that this “constituted another transition toward dictatorship”. The five-hour hearing ended without a verdict from the Supreme Court, and the time frame for a conclusion to the case is unclear. Al Jazeera
Sub Saharan Africa
Niger junta suspends French broadcasts as supporters protest sanctions. Niger’s junta has suspended major French television and radio broadcasters within the country. A growing wave of anti-French sentiment has led locals, who accuse the former colonial ruler of interfering in their affairs, to protest against foreign sanctions in the capital Niamey on Thursday. Niger’s regional and Western partners have imposed heavy sanctions in an effort to pressure Niger to restore constitutional order. In a stroke of resistance, Niger on Thursday suspended broadcasts of French state-funded international news outlets France 24 and RFI, drawing condemnation from the French Foreign Ministry. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
Finland Reports ‘Four-Fold’ Increase in Ransomware Attacks Since Joining NATO. Sauli Pahlman, a deputy director of Finland’s National Cyber Security Center (NCSC), told Recorded Future News that Finnish organizations have experienced a “four-fold” increase in ransomware attacks since beginning the process of joining NATO. While noting that “correlation doesn’t equal causality,” Pahlman said he believes the increase in attacks is related to political factors. Despite the surge in ransomware incidents, Pahlman said he did not think it likely that Finland will suffer a cyberattack “that really closes down something that's critical for society — food, electricity, water — on a wide scale.” The NCSC last fall elevated the public cyber threat level in order to heighten awareness of the potential for cyberattacks, a threat level that “continues to be elevated as we speak,” according to Pahlman. Attacks by state-sponsored threat actors have not reached a “stepped-up” level, Pahlman said, but that is not the case for ransomware attacks “which tend to have much more severe consequences at least for the targeted organizations – those have increased.” TheRecord
South Korean Group To Examine Research Center Claim of Superconductor Breakthrough. A South Korean superconductivity group said Thursday they would create a committee to verify that a room temperature superconductor has been discovered. The expert group, the Korean Society of Superconductivity and Cryogenics, said it has requested samples from the Quantum Energy Research Centre (QERC) to confirm researchers’ claims made in a website post of the discovery of a room-temperature superconductor material. The Society noted "there has been a lot of controversy over the authenticity of the reported results at home and abroad, and other claims are being added without being peer-reviewed." Seoul National University and other leading research centers would be involved in verifying the findings if the QERC provides samples. QERC researchers and other South Korean experts have reported synthesizing the world’s first superconductor, known as LK-99, capable of conducting electricity at room temperature with ambient pressure. Public excitement over the reported breakthrough was heightened with the online circulation of a video of Chinese scientists replicating the Korean team’s findings. A pair of university students from Huazhong University of Science and Technology posted a four-minute video online on Tuesday afternoon claiming to have synthesized a tiny crystal under a microscope, and proceeded to demonstrate its antimagnetic, levitative properties. Reuters Bloomberg South China Morning Post
Russia Fines Apple for Failing To Delete ‘Inaccurate’ Content on Actions in Ukraine. Russia has levied a small fine — $4,274 – on Apple for failing to delete "inaccurate" content on apps and podcasts concerning Russia’s "special military operation" in Ukraine. The TASS news agency said the fine imposed by a Moscow court was the first directed at Apple for this specific offense. The Interfax news agency reported a court statement that the content included information "aimed at involving minors in illegal activities in order to destabilize the political situation in the Russian Federation.” Apple, which paused all product sales shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, did not respond to an emailed request for comment. The Moscow court also said it fined the Wikimedia Foundation, which owns Wikipedia, approximately $31,700 for the same violation. Wikimedia has been fined several times for posted information on the Ukraine conflict, which it said is well-sourced and in line with Wikipedia standards. Reuters AP
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