6:00 PM ET, Thursday, August 10, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Biden Reportedly Asking for $40 Billion in Emergency Ukraine, Disaster Relief Funds. The Biden administration is reportedly asking Congress for $40 billion new emergency spending. The request includes $24 billion in aid for Ukraine, $12 billion in federal disaster relief funds, and $4 billion for issues at the southern border, including services for migrants and counter-fentanyl efforts. The Ukraine portion includes $13.1 billion in military aid, including $9.5 billion to facilitate weapons and ammunition shipments and $3.6 billion for wider military and intelligence support. Observers say there is bipartisan support for both Ukraine aid and disaster relief, but the request will likely raise tensions on Capitol Hill amid calls by House conservatives for spending cuts and opposition from some lawmakers over providing Ukraine aid without stronger oversight. Politico
Mexico to Digitally Track Fentanyl Precursor Chemicals. Mexican Foreign Minister Alicia Barcena said on Thursday that Mexico will establish a digital tracking system for fentanyl precursor chemicals. Mexico will also set up stronger controls at ports of entry to track the chemicals. The move is part of trilateral cooperation with the U.S. and Canada to stem the flow of fentanyl into the Americas. The U.S. says fentanyl precursor chemicals are shipped from China to drug cartels in Mexico which produce fentanyl and send it north. Reuters
Western Europe
China Pauses London Embassy Plans. China is reportedly pausing plans to build a new embassy in London. Beijing sought to build the embassy near the Tower of London, but the local council expressed opposition to the plan over security concerns and the impact on residents. Sources say China will miss a Thursday deadline to appeal against the local council’s opposition and will instead call on the British government to intervene if it resubmits a planning application. The delay could further increase diplomatic tensions between China and Britain. British officials have previously warned that plans to rebuild its embassy in Beijing could be affected if China is not allowed to relocate its embassy in London. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine Says Northern Front ‘Epicenter’ of Hostilities,’ Orders Evacuation of Kupyansk. Ukrainian officials say Russia is sending substantial reinforcements to the northern front in the eastern Kharkiv region, making the area the “epicenter of hostilities.” Military officials say Russia has sent airborne assault units reinforced with tanks, artillery and air strikes to the region. The Ukrainian National Guard spokesman said Russia has been launching over 50 air attacks every day in the region, and another National Guard official said Russia is “trying to seize the initiative” in the Kupyansk direction. Officials say that despite the heavy fighting, Ukrainian defenses are still holding. However, officials have ordered a mandatory evacuation for civilians in Kupyansk city and surrounding areas due to Russian shelling. Kharkiv regional officials say around 11,000 people will be evacuated. CNN RFE/RL
Russian Shelling Hits Zaporizhzhia Again. Ukrainian officials say Russian shelling again hit a civilian building in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia on Thursday evening, killing one person. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed the attack, saying that Zaporizhzhia “suffers daily from Russian shelling.” The strike came a day after a Russian missile attack on the city killed three people on Wednesday. CNN Reuters
Russia Says Ukraine Shelling Kills Two in Bryansk. The governor of Russia’s western Bryansk region, Alexander Bogomaz, said that Ukrainian shelling hit the village of Chausy on Thursday, killing two people. Separately, Russian-appointed authorities in the Russian-occupied town of Nova Kakhovka in southern Ukraine say that a Ukrainian strike killed one person. Reuters could not immediately confirm the reports. Reuters
Ukraine Announces Black Sea ‘Corridor’ for Ships Stuck at Ports. Ukraine said on Thursday that it has established a “humanitarian corridor” in the Black Sea to free cargo ships trapped in Ukrainian ports due to Russia’s war. The corridor will initially apply to the around 60 commercial vessels that have been stuck in Ukrainian ports since Moscow started its invasion in February 2022. The corridor will be a major test for the de-facto Russian blockade of Ukraine imposed since leaving the Black Sea grain deal. Ukraine’s navy maintains that the corridor will be “transparent” with measures taken to ensure ships use it for humanitarian and not for military purposes. Shipping and insurance sources say it is unlikely most ships will agree to use the corridor immediately over concerns about its viability. Reuters
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Switched to Reserve Power Line. Ukraine’s state-owned energy company Energoatom said on Thursday that the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant again lost connection to its last remaining external power line and switched to a reserve line. The company warned that the reserve line has less than half the power capacity of the main line, risking the chance of power cuts at the facility. Separately, one of the plant’s reactors was moved to “cold” shutdown due to signs of a steam leak. While none of the plant’s six reactors produce electricity, at least one of them needs to be in “hot” shutdown to produce steam for the facility’s own needs. Both Ukraine and Russia have blamed each other for shelling the plant. Reuters
Russia Replicating Iranian Drones. Investigators from Conflict Armament Research, an arms monitoring group, have found that Russia is starting to replicate attack drones acquired from Iran. Researchers came to the conclusion after inspecting the wreckage of drones found in Ukraine that looked like Iranian Shahed-136s, but contained electronic modules and components previously found in Russian surveillance drones and had different materials and internal structures to drones from Iran. Russia has relied on Iran’s Shahed kamikaze drones to strike deep inside Ukraine. Russia will be better able to sustain its use of one-way drones in its invasion now that it is making its own version, which are commonly marked as Geran-2. The development also underscores how Russia can bypass measures aimed at cutting it off from foreign-made electronic devices for military use. New York Times
Asia and Oceania
Chinese Anti-Corruption Drive Escalates Focus on SOEs. China’s top anti-corruption office, the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), reports that the number of state-owned enterprises it has investigated “increased significantly” compared to last year. The office said over 140 officials from SOEs have been detained for graft, while over 200 turned themselves in. The CCDI said earlier this year that cracking down on corruption in SOEs was a major priority for this year, calling state-run firms the “ballast” of the Chinese economy and development plans. The office said anti-graft investigations have focused on SOEs working on big infrastructure projects, procurement, mergers and acquisitions, and mixed-ownership reforms. South China Morning Post
UN Security Council to Meet on North Korea Rights Abuses. The UN Security Council is holding a public meeting next week to discuss human rights abuses in North Korea. The U.S., Albania and Japan jointly requested the meeting, which will be the Security Council’s first formal public meeting on the matter since 2017. China and Russia have objected to North Korean rights abuses being raised in the council. Pyongyang rejects accusations of wrongdoing. Reuters
Taliban, Kazakhstan Discuss Banking Transactions. Taliban economic and business representatives visited Kazakhstan last week to discuss facilitating financial transactions with private banks to help end Afghanistan’s economic isolation. The Taliban delegation also discussed trade tariffs, telecommunications projects and transit routes, and potential shipments of Russian oil to South Asia with Kazakh counterparts. Afghanistan’s banking sector and wider economy has been hampered since the Taliban takeover due to sanctions on Taliban leaders and the freezing of assets. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
U.S. Citizens Detained in Iran Moved from Prison to House Arrest. Four U.S. citizens detained in Iran were moved from Tehran’s Evin prison to house arrest on Thursday, joining a fifth who was already under house arrest. The move may be a first step towards Tehran allowing the U.S. citizens to leave Iran, which could take weeks to negotiate but would significantly lower U.S.-Iran tensions. Sources say Iran will allow the U.S. citizens to leave if $6 billion of Iranian funds held in South Korea are unfrozen and several Iranians held in the U.S. are released. A source stressed that any funds transferred from South Korea would go from one restricted account to another which can only be used for humanitarian purposes like buying food or medicine. New York Times Reuters Washington Post
Lebanon Caretaker Defense Minister Unharmed After Bullet Hits Car. Lebanon’s caretaker defense minister Maurice Slim was safe after his car was hit by gunfire. Officials say Slim’s vehicle was hit in the southeast edge of the capital Beirut. Lebanon’s interior minister said authorities are investigating the incident to determine if Slim was targeted or if his car was hit by stray bullets. Al Jazeera Reuters
Suspected Al Qaeda Attack in Yemen Kills Secessionist Commander, Three Fighters. A suspected al-Qaeda attack in southern Yemen killed a commander and three fighters linked to a secessionist group. The four were members of the Security Belt Forces, which is linked to the Southern Transitional Council, and were killed when their convoy was hit by an explosion in Yemen’s southern Abyan governorate. Sources say al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) may have been behind the attack, though AQAP has not claimed responsibility. Suspected AQAP fighters killed secessionist fighters in southern Yemen in a clash earlier this month. Al Jazeera
Sub Saharan Africa
ECOWAS Maintains ‘Use of Force’ an Option to Address Niger Crisis. ECOWAS heads of state met in Nigeria’s Abuja on Thursday for an emergency summit to discuss the West African bloc’s response to the coup in Niger. The bloc pledged to enforce sanctions and travel bans against coup leaders blocking the restoration of ousted President Mohamed Bazoum. Most significantly, Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu, ECOWAS chair, ended the summit by saying that all options “including the use of force as a last resort” are on the table to address the Niger crisis. He maintained that the bloc will continue to work towards a diplomatic solution in the meantime. ECOWAS defense chiefs prepared plans for a potential military intervention into Niger last week, which sources say was discussed at the summit between the heads of state. Al Jazeera Reuters
China Halts Construction of Niger Dam Over Coup. The China Gezhouaba Group Co Ltd halted construction of its Kandadji hydroelectric dam in Niger following sanctions related to the country’s recent military coup. The $808 million project is about 100 miles northwest of Niger’s capital Niamey and is set to have a capacity of 130 MW and provide irrigation. Reuters
Gunmen in Nigeria Kill 20. Gunmen attacked two villages in Nigeria’s north central state of Plateau on Thursday, killing at least 20 people. Violence in the region between chiefly Muslim Fulani herders and mainly Christian farmers is common. Reuters
UAE Sending Weapons to Warring Party in Sudan. The Wall Street Journal reports that weapons from the UAE were sent to Sudan on a plane that flight records showed should have been delivering aid to Sudanese refugees. Sources say the arms were sent as part of a UAE plot to back Lieutenant General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, which are fighting against Sudan’s army. The report suggests the UAE is working against efforts to end Sudan’s civil war. Ugandan officials were also directed to let the plane to continue its journey despite finding the weapons, suggesting that others beyond the UAE are also facilitating the transfer of military equipment into Sudan. In response to the report, the UAE said it supports peaceful resolution to the conflict and seeks to help “alleviate human suffering.” Sources say the US is aware of the UAE arms transfers and has expressed concerns with Abu Dhabi. Wall Street Journal
Cyber and Tech
Germany Warns Iranian Dissident Groups About Tehran Threat Group Targeting. The German domestic intelligence agency warned Thursday that it has discovered “concrete attempts” by a suspected Tehran-sponsored cyber threat group called Charming Kitten against Iranian dissident organizations. According to the German security agency, Charming Kitten hackers have been using social engineering techniques and fake personas to build relationships with and compromise dissidents. The German agency notification said the threat group attempts to build a rapport with targets and then sending links to an online chat masking a credential harvesting page. The German agency also cited research into threat group operations by CERTFA (the ‘Computer Emergency Response Team in Farsi’), a mostly anonymous collective that tracks Iranian cybercriminals and state-sponsored hackers targeting Iranian citizens around the world. CERTFA’s founder, Amin Sabeti, said he believes Charming Kitten is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and that he wouldn't be surprised to read a news story announcing that one of the campaign's targets had been killed. The Record
UK Selects Tech Expert, Former Diplomat to Prepare Global AI Summit. Matt Clifford, co-founder of the Entrepreneur First investment firm, and former senior diplomat Jonathan Black have been chosen to lead preparations for the UK-sponsored global summit on AI later this year. The two organizers will work with political leaders, AI companies, and technology experts to lay the groundwork for the summit announced in June by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Clifford told Reuters he hoped the summit would set the tone for future international debates on AI regulation. He described the gathering as an event “where there will be really crunchy discussions happening - to try to agree on a shared understanding of the risks, and as a platform for working together on mitigating them.” He noted that there are many possible approaches to AI and elements of AI policy “where each country needs to adopt whatever works best for them.” The British government has not yet set a date for the event nor identified who is likely to attend. To date, the UK has divided regulatory responsibility for AI between bodies that oversee competition, human rights and health and safety rather than establishing an organization with exclusive oversight of the technology. Reuters
Ukrainian Cybersecurity Chief Outlines Cyber Intelligence Successes Against Russia. Illia Vitiuk, cybersecurity chief for Ukraine’s security service (SBU), said Thursday that hackers have been successful in penetrating Russian systems to uncover information on targeting, troop movements, and Moscow’s attempts to evade Western sanctions. Vitiuk pointed to a recent operation based on cyber intelligence when Ukraine, along with its partners, blocked Russian attempts to acquire through third countries thousands of microchips destined for Iranian Shahed drones. Vitiuk described how Ukrainian specialists use open-source information to gain details on the infrastructure and operating systems of targets that help to identify and exploit vulnerabilities. “Cyber intelligence helps us to obtain top-secret enemy documents,” Vitiuk said, adding, “In the past, we had to recruit a spy in the enemy's country to get this kind of material, which was risky and time-consuming.” Vitiuk said that leaked Russian documents also play an important role in Ukraine’s cyber intelligence efforts. He noted that the recent hack of a Moscow City property website containing information on city residents revealed “what properties Russian politicians, military, and special services own.” Chatbots operating on the Telegram messaging app are another valuable source as they gather details about troop movements and collaborators with Russian forces, which Ukrainian analysts then verify and compare with data from other sources. Vitiuk confirmed that Information from the bots have helped Ukraine destroy hundreds of pieces of enemy equipment. The Record
Majorities in U.S. Favor Government Rules for AI, Distrust Tech Sector Self-Regulation. Majorities of American voters are concerned about risks posed by artificial intelligence and support protective federal regulation, according to a poll conducted for the Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute. An overwhelming number – 82 percent – said they preferred government AI rules for AI over tech sector self-regulation. A slight majority, 56 percent, expressed clear support for the establishment of a federal agency to regulate AI, with only 14 percent in outright opposition. Another larger majority, 72 percent, favored steps to slow down AI development, with only 8 percent supporting acceleration. The possibility of AI accidentally provoking a “catastrophic event” was a concern shared by 86 percent. In February, a study published by KPMG revealed that respondents in 17 major countries believed that regulation of AI is needed. However, the KPMG study found stark differences in confidence in government actors’ ability to regulate AI, with only 49, 47, and 45 percent in the U.S., Japan, and Britain, respectively, saying government is up to the task. The confidence levels in China, India, and Singapore, by contrast, were 86, 70, and 60 percent. Daniel Colson, executive director of the Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute remarked: "Americans are wary about the next stages of AI and want policymakers to step in to develop it responsibly.” Axios
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