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5:30 PM ET, Monday, October 23, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

TOP STORIES

Erdogan Submits Sweden’s NATO Membership Bid to Parliament for Ratification.  Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan submitted a protocol approving Sweden’s NATO membership bid to Turkey’s parliament for ratification on Monday.  The move clears the way for Stockholm to join the military alliance.  Erdogan had previously promised NATO allies that he would send the legislation to parliament when it reopened on Oct. 1.  Since parliament reopened, however, Turkish officials said that Sweden needed to do more to combat Kurdish militants like the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) before Ankara could ratify its membership bid.  Turkey was also angered by a series of Quran-burning demonstrations in Sweden.  There is no set timeline for ratification.  The bill will be put on the agenda of the Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs commission, where it will need to pass before being sent to the general assembly for ratification.  Associated Press Reuters New York Times

China Investigating Foxconn.  Chinese state media reports that Taiwan’s Foxconn, a key supplier for Apple, is being investigated by authorities in China.  Chinese state-owned outlet Global Times reported on Sunday that tax authorities recently audited Foxconn’s key subsidiaries in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces, where the company has major factories.  Sources say the natural resource ministry also reportedly investigated Foxconn’s land use in Henan and Hubei provinces.  Foxconn said it will cooperate with Chinese authorities.  The probe comes after Chinese police reportedly raided the Shanghai office of international advertising group GroupM, the latest in a series of actions by Chinese authorities against foreign businesses, namely on national security grounds.  The Foxconn investigation also comes after the company’s founder Terry Gou announced his bid for Taiwan’s presidency.  It is unclear if the probes are connected to Gou’s candidacy.  CNN Financial Times New York Times Nikkei Asia South China Morning Post

China Claims Breakthrough on Hypersonic Vehicle Surface Material. Chinese scientists claim to have developed a new surface material for use in hypersonic vehicles that can remain intact after long flights.  The technology was previously thought impossible. In a Chinese military test, the thin material was applied to the surface of a “waverer” aircraft, which uses shock waves generated by its own flying to improve lift, with air surrounding the aircraft heating up to thousands of degrees Celsius. The smooth surface kept critical parts within the aircraft cool and allowed wireless signals to go in and out freely.   Scientists involved in the test flight said it “ended in a complete success,” according to a paper they published in the Physics of Gases last month. The reported achievement appears to set China ahead of the U.S. in the hypersonic race as America continues to struggle with thermal issues.  South China Morning Post

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Two More Hostages Released by Hamas.  Hamas has reportedly released two more hostages following mediation from Qatar and Egypt.  Sources said the hostages were Israeli citizens, and Israeli officials said that both hostages were women.  The International Committee of the Red Cross confirmed their release and facilitated their transfer.  Israel’s government says their husbands are reportedly still being held by Hamas.  A Hamas spokesperson said the hostages were released for “humanitarian and health reasons.”  Israel has said it wants all hostages held by Hamas released before permitting the delivery of fuel into Gaza, warning that Hamas and other militant groups could use such fuel for military purposes.  Meanwhile, the U.S. has been pushing Israel to delay a ground invasion of Gaza to buy more time to secure the release of hostages.  Associated Press CNN Times of IsraelWall Street Journal

U.K. Says Missile Fired from Gaza Caused Hospital Blast.  British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Monday told parliament that the British government has assessed that the explosion at the Al-Ahli al-Arabi Hospital in Gaza City was caused by a rocket fired from Gaza, and not a missile from Israel.  Sunak noted that the “misreporting” on the blast has caused a “negative effect” on the region.  The British findings are in line with conclusions from the U.S., France and Canada.  Palestinian officials report that 471 people were killed in the explosion.  Gaza’s health ministry blamed the blast on an Israeli air strike, while Israel said it was caused by a misfired rocket from militants in Gaza.  CNN Reuters

U.K. Providing 20 Million Pounds in Aid to Gaza.  British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced Monday that the U.K. government would be providing an additional 20 million pounds ($24 million) of humanitarian support to Gaza. Sunak said Britain is “more than doubling” previous support to Palestinian territories since the Hamas attacks on Israel with the new aid, having made 10 million pounds in assistance available last week.  Barron’s Reuters

Pentagon Says Iran Responsible Attacks on U.S. Forces Despite No Direct Order.  The Pentagon said on Monday that it has not seen evidence Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei directly ordered Iranian proxy groups in the Middle East to attack U.S. troops in the region.  The assessment follows a recent uptick in missile and drone attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria following the Hamas attacks on Israel.  The U.S. is deploying more air defense systems to the region to protect its troops in response.  Although the U.S. has not seen any direct order from Iran for the attacks, Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder told reporters that the U.S. still holds Iran responsible for attacks by militant groups “by virtue of the fact that they are supported by Iran.”  Iranian security officials previously told Reuters that Iran’s strategy was for its proxies to carry out limited strikes against Israeli and U.S. targets but to avoid further escalation that could draw Tehran into a wider conflict.  Politico Reuters Wall Street Journal U.S. Department of Defense

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Seeking 18 Billion Euros in E.U. Aid in 2024.  Ukrainian officials say Kyiv is hoping to receive 18 billion euros ($19 billion) in aid from the E.U. in 2024, the same amount it received this year.  Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced that Ukraine just received 1.5 billion euros ($1.59 billion) in a ninth tranche of E.U. assistance, bringing the total aid received so far this year to 15 billion euros.  Ukraine’s finance ministry said two more tranches of support from the bloc are expected in the coming months to bring the total amount of assistance this year to 18 billion euros.  Ukraine is planning for a $42 billion deficit for 2024 and hopes to make up the gap with international financial aid.  Ukraine and the E.U. are working on a long-term aid program to send 50 billion euros in assistance to Kyiv over four years.  Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Greater Federal Coordination Needed To Bolster CISA Role, Improve Cyber Defenses.  U.S. defenses against severe cyberattacks remain vulnerable despite significant past and planned investments in reinforcing systems and networks.  A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) concludes that funding cybersecurity enhancements alone will not measure up to nation-state and cybercriminal efforts to launch attacks that penetrate, disrupt, extract, and extort online targets.  While CISA is the lead federal cybersecurity agency, the government landscape is complicated by more than 100 executive branch components that have specific cyber concerns requiring communication and coordination.  To address this situation, the report proposes that Congress establish and fund the Joint Collaborative Environment, a secure information sharing mechanism led by CISA through which cyber data could be studied and standardized between government, industry and academia.  The report also points to emerging threats demanding CISA’s attention, including malware-as-a-service, the use of AI by threat actors to launch more sophisticated attacks, and CISA’s development of tools to automate vulnerability detection.  The CSIS study included the participation of past members of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission members and involved interviews with 30 federal and private chief information security officers.  Politico CyberScoop

State Department Warns Democratic Nations of Global Russian Election Meddling.  A State Department cable to be distributed to over 100 democratic nations underscores the expansion of Russian election interference in at least nine countries over the 2020 and 2022 cycles.  During that period, an intelligence assessment concluded, there was “a less pronounced level” in 17 countries of Russian social media disinformation playing up domestic questions about election integrity.  An unidentified senior U.S. intelligence official told the Washington Post that U.S. government findings indicate Russia is focusing on efforts around the world to undermine public confidence in election processes.  “Our information,” the official said, “indicates that senior Russian government officials, including in the Kremlin, see value in this type of influence operation” and see them as effective means to call into question the outcomes of elections and “the legitimacy of the elected government.”  A notable absence from the cable’s identification of interfering adversaries is China, which the assessment says does not appear to be involved in efforts to dilute public confidence in elections.  Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s ambassador to the United States, said in a Telegram post on Saturday that “we are not surprised by such insinuations.”  He said the White House attempts to portray Russia as an adversary “demonstrates disinterest in pragmatic cooperation to address the common challenges facing whole humankind.”  Washington Post

Israeli, Palestinian Aid Groups Experience Increasing Disruptive Cyberattacks.  Hacking attacks are increasing against both Israeli and Palestinian humanitarian websites, officials from various aid groups report.  Roy Yellin, public outreach director for the Israeli human rights group, B’Tselem, said that cyberattacks on its website as well as email and text message threats against the organization’s leader have spiked since Hamas’ attacks began.  Medical Aid for Palestinians, a UK-based NGO providing emergency relief to Gaza residents, posted to X that a hack of its website was an apparent attempt to prevent donations to medical relief programs.  Meanwhile, the Israeli nonprofit United Hatzalah, which also provides volunteer emergency medical services, announced that is has blocked access to its donations site from certain countries as a precaution due to “a large number of cyberattacks against us.”  The hosting service, Deflect, which works with a variety of nonprofits, activists, and independent journalists in Israel and Palestine, reported that since the Hamas attack began “our clients from this region have been pummeled nonstop” although none of the provider’s websites have gone offline.  Deflect uses machine learning to detect recurring hacker techniques, which makes it easier for Deflect systems to adapt.  A Deflect representative said that in the latest attacks against organizations in Israel and Palestine, some patterns have not been encountered before, suggesting hackers are now using new methods.  Wall Street Journal

D.C. Board of Elections Reports Possible Compromise of Entire Voter Roll.  The entire voter roll of the District of Columbia may have been compromised in a hacking attack on a hosting provider in early October.  The D.C. Board of Elections reported that a breach of a DataNet Systems web server possibly could have resulted in hacker access to all voter registrations, which include partial social security numbers, driver’s license data, and contact information.  DataNet Systems did not disclose when the voter roll may have been accessed.  The compromise was revealed after the RansomedVC ransomware gang included the Board of Elections as a victim on its dark web blog, with a claim that they seized 600,000 lines of voter data.  The Board of Elections announced that it will contact all registered voters and will consult with the Mandiant cybersecurity firm on next steps.  Cybernews BleepingComputer

TSMC Affiliate Considers Singapore for its Most Advanced Chip Plant.  Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS), an affiliate of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), is reportedly close to a decision on building its most advanced chip plant in Singapore.  Sources say VIS, which has focused on 8-inch chip production, is seeking to build its first 12-inch chip plant to produce more automotive-related chips and is deciding on whether to build the plant in Taiwan or Singapore.  Semiconductor companies in Taiwan have been pressured to diversify production off the island amid heightened tensions with China.  Nikkei Asia

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Taiwan Says it Will Objectively Assess Chinese Military to then ‘Strengthen Ourselves.’  Taiwanese Defense Minister Chin Kuo-cheng on Monday said that Taiwan will not rely on the People’s Liberation Army facing “certain shortcomings” in preparing for a potential conflict and will instead use its own “intelligence” and assessments.  His comments come after the Pentagon said in its annual report on China’s military power that the PLA faces a number of shortcomings it would need to overcome.  A major weakness is the PLA’s inability to fight a modern war since it lacks combat experience, having last fought a war in 1979, and suffers from overly formal and bureaucratic training.  Other problems highlighted in the report include the PLA’s inability to understand the intention of higher authorities and react to unexpected situations.  The report did note that PLA could quicken its efforts to develop a nuclear arsenal to rival the U.S.  Chiu acknowledged the report’s conclusions, but noted that no military would rely solely on the opinions of others to prepare for combat, saying that Taiwan will take the PLA’s strengths and weaknesses into account itself to decide how best to “strengthen ourselves.”  South China Morning Post

South Korea, Saudi Arabia Sign 46 Deals on Energy, Infrastructure.  During South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s trip to Saudi Arabia, Seoul and Riyadh signed 46 separate corporate deals and basic economic agreements.  Yoon and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmnan attended a bilateral investment forum together on Sunday.  Notable agreements include Korea National Oil signing an agreement with Saudi Aramco for a joint oil storage business and Hyundai Motor announcing that it is working with the Saudi sovereign wealth fund.  The deals come as the South Korean government has been heavily pushing infrastructure and energy exports to Saudi Arabia and as the kingdom seeks to diversify its oil-dependent economy.  Nikkei Asia

Estonia Links Damage to Baltic Sea Undersea Infrastructure.  Sweden’s government said on Monday that Estonia believes that the damage to a Swedish-Estonian telecommunications cable in the Baltic Sea is related to damage to another cable and gas pipeline between Estonia and Finland.  The undersea infrastructure was damaged in early October in what Finnish investigators say may have been deliberate sabotage.  Estonia  said that it was too early to draw conclusions but that they had concluded that the damage to the Swedish-Estonian cable was done by human actions.  The probes into the incidents are currently focused on the Chinese NewNew Polar Bear container ship, which investigators say was in the area around the time the cables and pipeline were damaged.  China’s foreign ministry on Monday called for an “objective fair and professional” investigation into the matter and maintains that the Chinese vessel was sailing normally.  NATO has said it is stepping up patrols in the Baltic Sea in response to the incidents.  Al Jazeera Reuters

U.S. Approves Potential Missile Sales to U.K., Finland, Lithuania.  The Pentagon said on Monday that the U.S. State Department has approved three potential arms sales to the U.K., Finland, and Lithuania.  The department approved a potential sale of 3,000 joint air-to-ground missiles to the U.K. for $957.4 million.  Lockheed Martin would be the principal contractor for the sale.  The department also approved a potential sale of 150 advanced anti-radiation guided missiles to Finland for $500 million.  Northrop Grumman would be the principal contractor for the deal.  The department additionally approved a potential sale of 36 advanced medium range air-to-air missiles to Lithuania for around $100 million.  Raytheon would be the principal contractor for the sale.  Reuters US DoD DSCA - UK Sale US DoD DSCA - Finland Sale US DoD DSCA - Lithuania Sale

NATO Admiral Warns of China-Russia Ties in Arctic.  Admiral Rob Bauer, who chairs NATO’s Military Committee, said on Sunday that the alliance has grown increasingly wary about China’s shipping on Russia’s Northern Sea route, and the prospect that its commercial and scientific interests in the region could lead to a Chinese military presence in the Arctic.  China and Russia have sought increasingly closer ties, including cooperation on energy and transportation which has caused a spike in Russian crude shipments to China through the Northern Sea route.  Bauer, speaking at the Arctic Circle Assembly conference, warned, “We cannot be naive and expect these new routes to solely be used by commercial vessels,” adding that China’s intentions in the region “remain opaque.”  Gao Feng, China’s special representative for Arctic affairs, didn’t directly address the comments in his conference speech, saying only that tensions in the Arctic will complicate possible cooperation and impact global stability.  Bauer noted that Russia’s Arctic air and naval assets remain intact despite budgetary pressures from the Ukraine war.  He added that NATO must prepare for conflict in the region, but noted that the alliance is not worried about the Arctic turning into a hotspot “immediately.”  Bloomberg gCaptain

Russian Court Extends Pre-Trial Detention of U.S. Journalist into December.  A Russian court extended the pre-trial detention of Alsu Kurmasheva, a Russian-American journalist for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) who was charged by Russian authorities last week for failing to register as a foreign agent, to December 5.  RFE/RL is funded by the U.S. Congress and designated as a foreign agent by Russia.  Kurmasheva’s lawyers say they intend to appeal the decision to extend her pre-trial detention, which they called “too harsh.”  Kurmasheva, who holds both a U.S. and Russian passport, came to Russia on May 20 to deal with a family emergency and was detained on June 2, awaiting a return flight.  Kurmasheva is the second U.S. journalist to be arrested in Russia since the beginning of the war in Ukraine.  The U.S. State Department said Kurmasheva’s case appears to be “another case of the Russian government harassing U.S. citizens.”  Al Jazeera Axios CNN Reuters

E.U. Agree to Niger Sanctions Framework.  U.S. countries adopted a framework to impose sanctions on members of the Niger military junta on Monday. The new framework allows the E.U. to sanction individuals and entities responsible for actions that threaten the peace, stability, and security of Niger, undermine the country’s constitutional order, or commit serious violations to human rights or international humanitarian law.  The E.U. aims to use the framework to mirror measures adopted by ECOWAS against the Niger junta.  E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell hailed the passing of the framework, saying that it strengthens the bloc’s support of ECOWAS and sends the message that “military coups bear costs.”  Reuters European Council AfricaNews

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