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5:30 PM ET, Monday, October 2, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
TOP STORIES:
U.S. Has Six Months of Military Aid for Ukraine Left. U.S. officials say the Pentagon has over $5 billion remaining to fund weapons transfers and other security aid for Ukraine after more funding was omitted from the measure Congress passed on Saturday to keep the government open. The funding will facilitate military aid for around six more months, if the U.S. continues assistance at the same rate it has since the start of March. The remaining funds come from an accounting error discovered in May that gave the Pentagon more money for Ukraine aid than it thought it had. The Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, a separate pot of money the U.S. uses for longer-term refurbishments for Ukraine’s military and efforts to make it more compatible with NATO forces, has been exhausted. Pentagon officials say they are assessing how the spending bill will impact aid for Ukraine. The U.S. has reassured Ukraine that it will maintain support and is pursuing new funding. Kyiv has downplayed the impact of the spending bill, saying that it is working with Washington on securing new aid. Wall Street Journal
U.N. Approves Kenya-Led Mission to Haiti. The U.N. Security Council on Monday voted to authorize a Kenya-led multinational security mission for Haiti aimed at helping local authorities counter rampant gang violence. The Council voted 13 in favor, with China and Russia abstaining. The force will be deployed for one year, with a review after nine months. The security mission will be tasked with guarding Haitian critical infrastructure like airports, ports, schools, hospitals and key traffic intersections and will conduct “targeted operations” with Haitian National Police. U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric recognized that there are “political and logistical complications” that need to be addressed for the mission to be successful, adding that countries who send security forces to Haiti for the mission will be held accountable for the conduct of their personnel. Kenya pledged at least 1,000 security personnel for the force. Jamaica, Barbados, Antigua and Barbuda and other countries have said they will join the mission. The Biden administration pledged $100 million total for the mission itself, along with another $100 million from the Pentagon, for intelligence support, airlifts, communications, and medical assistance. Associated Press New York Times
Serbia Says Military Presence Reduced Near Kosovo Border. Serbian military officials say the Serbian army has reduced its number of troops along the border with Kosovo by about half, following concern from the U.S. and E.U. about a reported military buildup in the area. The reported concentration of Serbian forces on the border came after a shooting in northern Kosovo between armed Serb gunmen and Kosovar police. Serbian Army Chief of Staff General Milan Mojsilovic said the military force in the area has been cut to its “regular” level of around 4,500 soldiers, down from 8,350 in the wake of the clash. He added that U.S. and E.U. concerns on the matter were unfounded since troops did not raise combat readiness and because Serbia has previously deployed as many as 14,000 soldiers to the border in the past. Serbia has denied claims by Kosovo officials that the Serbian army trained and armed the gunmen in the shootout. NATO bolstered its peacekeeping force in Kosovo with around 200 British troops amid the crisis and says it will be sending further reinforcements. Associated Press Deutsche Welle Reuters
China Gaining Presence in Arctic as Russia Lessens Resistance. China is playing an increasing role in the Arctic as Russia, which has long protected its dominance in the region, begins to offer opportunities to join development projects. As Western companies withdraw from Russian projects in the region, Moscow is seeking alternatives like Chinese investment. While China is over 900 miles from the Arctic Circle, it declared itself a “near Arctic” nation in 2018, aiming to pursue shipping routes, natural resources, research opportunities, and military projection in the region. Beijing has even proposed a “Polar Silk Road” extension of its Belt and Road initiative for new shipping lanes that avoid chokepoints like the Suez Canal and Malacca Strait. All Arctic nations except Russia are Western democracies who are cautious about China’s presence in the region over security concerns, leaving Russia as Beijing’s most likely partner in the region. Business officials from both Russia and China have reportedly met in recent months to discuss infrastructure, mining, shipping and energy projects in the Arctic. Most projects are currently speculative, though there has been increased volumes of energy shipments, especially the transfer of crude via the Northern Sea Route, which goes from northwestern Russia to the Bering Strait. Experts warn that the polar route is still hazardous to transit, even as ice melts from climate change, and that Russia’s moves to permit non-ice-class tankers to increase capacities increases risk of accidents. Wall Street Journal
THE UKRAINE UPDATE:
Senior Ukrainian Official Calls for Cheaper Anti-Aircraft Systems to Counter Russian Drones. Mykhailo Podolyak, advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said on Monday that Ukraine needs simpler and cheaper anti-aircraft systems to counter Iranian-made Shahed drones launched by Russia. Podolyak said that while Western anti-aircraft systems like NASAMS and Iris-T are needed to intercept Russian missiles, it may not be cost-effective to use them to down Shaheds, depleting stockpiles of allies and “long-term weakening.” He suggested Ukraine should receive systems with “mobile large-caliber machine guns” for anti-drone defense. He highlighted Germany’s Gepard anti-aircraft-gun tank and the U.S.-made Vampire counter-drone system, which consists of a laser-guided missile launcher that can be mounted on a truck bed, as possible options. Reuters
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Expects E.U. Accession Talks to Start This Year. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said he believes negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the E.U. will start before the end of the year. Kuleba said he discussed the matter with E.U. foreign minister visiting Kyiv and that both sides are moving forward “as fast as possible” in consideration of the reforms the Ukrainian government has implemented at the bloc’s recommendation. He said the E.U. has yet to give Kyiv a formal offer regarding membership, but he emphasized that Ukraine is a “first-class state” and is seeking “first-class membership.” E.U. foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Monday that membership is the “strongest security commitment” the bloc can give Ukraine. CNN
Unofficial Accounts Claim Prigozhin's Son to Take Control of Wagner Group. Unofficial Telegram channels in Russia are claiming that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s will stipulates that his 25-year-old son, Pavel, will take control of his assets and control of his business empire. One of the channels, “Port,” claims to have obtained a copy of Prigozhin’s will and has published an image of it online. The document was allegedly notarized on March 2 and designates Prigozhin’s assets to go to Pavel, including his Wagner Group assets. The unverified publication suggests that Pavel filed an inheritance application on September 8th. “Port” also claimed that Pavel is set to collect all debts owed to his father. Other Telegram channels claimed Pavel is negotiating the return of Wagner personnel to Ukraine, though it is unclear if the Wagner fighters would be under the Russian military or different structures. Ukrainian officials have reported Wagner fighters are back in Ukraine individually, not as a unit. CNN could not independently verify the authenticity of the reports or the will. Prigozhin died in a plane crash in August following the failed Wagner mutiny in June. CNN
Russia Trying to Project Naval Air Power in Black Sea. The UK Ministry of Defense reports that the Naval Aviation component of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has expanded its maritime air patrol operations, most likely with a focus on early identification of uncrewed surface vessels. Be-12 MAIL amphibious aircraft, designed in the 1950s, play a key role in the operations, flying out of bases on occupied Crimea. The ministry added that Russia is using Su-24 FENCER and FLANKER variant combat jets to perform maritime strike operations in the area. The ministry said that Russia is trying to use this naval air power to project force over the northwestern Black Sea, as more Black Sea Fleet operations move to Novorossiysk due to threats to Sevastopol. UK Ministry of Defense X
Russian Espionage Ramps Up in Poland’s J-Town. The Polish town of Rzeszów - referred to by U.S. military personnel as J-Town - has been used as a logistics hub for military supplies to be shipped into Ukraine from abroad. Billions of dollars of equipment have flowed through this point from Western nations supporting Kyiv. Due to its strategic importance, J-Town has been the target of numerous espionage plots. Earlier in the year, a plot to dismantle the tracks of trains carrying supplies into Ukraine was uncovered. More recently, over a dozen citizens died of Legionnaires’ disease, leading officials to suspect contamination of drinking water resources by outsiders. The Polish say they are more aware of risks in Rzeszów and other areas of southern Poland. Russia has yet to comment on the contamination of Rzeszów’s drinking water or reported espionage operations in the region. Wall Street Journal
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:
India’s National Port Management System Left Access to Sensitive Data Unprotected. India’s national automated system to manage port operations left unprotected credentials, encryption keys, and other system elements through publicly accessible Java Script (JS) files. The vulnerabilities, which were discovered on September 24, have been remedied. The National Logistics Portal (NLP), which is still under development, was launched in January and provides management of customs documents, fees, shipment tracking, and other port activities. In addition to the JS files, Amazon Web Services S3 buckets, which contain personal data of workers, crews, invoices, and internal documents, were left open to possible exploitation by threat actors. The exposed S3 keys could have allowed a path to higher system privileges with the potential to compromise the entire NLP infrastructure. Dob Diachenko, the CEO of SecurityDiscovery, which was the first to identify the vulnerability, said that India’s one-stop platform for managing ports “left its digital keys right under the doormat. Moreover, the door itself was also open.” Diachenko went on to point out that JS files should not contain hardcoded credentials at all, and the AWS S3 buckets, which contain sensitive data, should have had privacy protections. India has plans to expand NLP operations to include all transport sectors, including waterways, roads, and air travel. Cybernews has not received a response to a request for comment from NLP managers. Cybernews
Navy’s TF59 Drone Experimentation Expanding to Latin America, Pacific Fleets. The U.S. Navy’s Task Force 59, headquartered in Bahrain, is sharing lessons learned from its testing of prototype uncrewed vessels over the past two years with other Navy commands, including the Pacific. Meanwhile, TF59 will continue its trailblazing mission with new AI applications to identify potential threats from drone sensors and trigger alerts, which would allow a single operator to control up to 100 drones rather than the “multiples” monitored today. Capt. Colin Corridan, the commander of Task Force 59, told DefenseOne that the group has created an environment “where innovation is key, and ideas are coming from every level of the organization.” TF59 has completed testing on 15 drone types in 55,000 operating hours and has participated in over 30 at-sea exercises with multinational partners as well as six operational deployments around the Arabian Peninsula. TF59 recently completed a “complex operation” working alongside unmanned surface, subsurface, and aerial platforms in the Strait of Hormuz. The unit’s work will be extended to the 4th Fleet’s operations in Latin America to monitor illegal fishing and combat human trafficking and drug smuggling. Bryan Clark, a naval expert and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, noted that TF59’s work has demonstrated the effectiveness of specially built naval drones working alongside those adapted from readily available commercial models. He explained that these combinations have created mesh networks at sea to support military and shipboard communications. The Navy announced in April that TF59 drone operations would be brought to the Pacific as well as to Latin America. Clark commented that he would have preferred the Pacific to be first in that expansion, given that environmental and other demands are different for drones in that theater. He noted that uses in the Pacific are likely to concentrate on “targeting, combat identification, and then kinetic or electronic warfare, maybe” rather than surveillance operations. DefenseOne
Cisco VPN Vulnerability Opens Potential for Hacker Control of Targeted Devices. Among the several advisories issued by Cisco last week concerning software vulnerabilities, the most worrying may be a flaw affecting its VPN products. The company said exploiting the vulnerability by hackers could allow them to take control or trigger a device crash. Cisco, which issued a patch for the vulnerability, was joined in its public warning by CISA, which also urged companies to install the patch. Acting on the vulnerability would require hackers to have gained access to an organization’s systems in order to move laterally through it. While qualified by the access requirement, cybersecurity expert Callie Guenther noted that successful exploitation of the flaw could compromise VPN secure communications, allowing hackers to “take complete control of the device or shut it down, causing disruptions.” Cybersecurity officials in the U.S. and Japan last week warned that Chinese government hackers were conducting cyberespionage operations by targeting Cisco and other companies’ routers. The Record
European Telecoms Standards Group Loses Member Database to Hacker Theft. A European organization involved in developing communications standards has announced a hacking intrusion that resulted in the theft of a database containing user identities. The European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI), which is based in France, reached out to the French government cybersecurity agency, ANSSI, which was able to assist in fixing the unidentified vulnerability and restoring system operations. With more than 900 members representing over 60 countries, ETSI provides services to a wide range of private companies, research facilities, and government and public organizations. The type of information potentially compromised in the stolen database is not known. The Record
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Chinese Military Releases Animation on ‘Reunification’ With Taiwan. The Chinese military has released an animated short film conveying Beijing’s intent to “reunify” with Taiwan. The video, named “Dreams Come True on Fuchun River,” depicts the “The Dwelling in the Fuchun Mountains” painting, which was torn in two in the 17th century by one of its owners. The pieces of the painting are kept in separate museums in China and Taiwan. The video shows elves representing the two pieces who come together and make the painting whole again. The video infers the “reunification” of mainland China and Taiwan, appealing to the shared cultural roots of people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. The video was interspersed with shots of a Chinese aircraft carrier and fighter jet formations, reminding viewers of Chinese military capabilities and Beijing’s threat of taking Taiwan by force. Reuters
Taiwan Investigating Potential Leak of Submarine Program Details. Taiwan prosecutors said on Monday that they are investigating accusations about interference with the island’s submarine program and that details about it were leaked. Taiwan unveiled its first domestically produced submarine on Thursday. It will start testing and is set to enter service in two years. The leader of the submarine program told local media last week that a contractor who had failed to obtain a bid for the project forwarded information about it to China. Prosecutors have begun investigating the claims. No details or names of suspects have been released. The submarine program has used expertise and technology from several countries, marking a breakthrough for diplomatically isolated Taiwan. Reuters
Japan Halts Lucrative Used-Car Trade with Russia. Japan has banned most used-car sales to Russia, halting a trade that reached nearly $2 billion annually and had boomed even amid sanctions linked to the Ukraine war. In early August, Japan banned exports of subcompact cars to Russia, ceasing trade in used Toyotas, Hondas, and Nissans for a network of brokers. Dealers will still be allowed to export smaller cars, such as the Toyota Yaris or the Honda Fit, to Russia. The move has cut Russia off from its biggest source of used cars, while driving down-prices for second-hand cars in Japan. Japanese brokers have been left scrambling to send cars to other regions, namely right-hand drive markets like New Zealand, Southeast Asia and Africa. Russia had been buying more than a quarter of Japan’s used-car exports at nearly double the price from 2020. Sales were on track to top $1.9 billion for 2023 until Japan imposed the sweeping sanctions. Reuters
Egyptian President Confirms Intent to Run for Third Term. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi announced on Monday his intention to run for a third term in office in the upcoming December election. Sisi, who has been in office since 2014, was expected to run to take advantage of amendments passed four years ago that allow him to remain in office until 2030. Sisi’s announcement comes as opposition figures say citizens are facing threats or are being turned away when seeking to register their support for them. Sisi was a former army chief who became president after leading a coup against democratically elected Mohamed Mursi in 2013. Reuters Times of Israel South China Morning Post
Mexico Says 10,000 Migrants Reaching U.S. Border Daily. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obradaor on Monday said around 10,000 migrants and asylum seekers arrived at the U.S.-Mexico border daily last week. Lopez Obrador also added that around 6,000 migrants are crossing the southern Mexico border daily. Lopez Obrador urged regional leaders to address the record numbers of migrants moving across the continent, saying that they must take action to address the root causes driving migration. Associated Press Reuters
U.N. Team in Nagorno-Karabakh Says No Damage to Civilian Infrastructure Amid Exodus. U.N. spokesperson Stephane Dujarric announced on Monday that the U.N. team visiting the Nagorno-Karabakh region did not see any damage to any civilian infrastructure there. Dujarric said the U.N. team did not hear reports or find evidence of violence against civilians since the latest ceasefire that ceded control of the region to Azerbaijan. Dujarric also said the team heard as few as 50 to 1,000 ethnic Armenians remain in the region. The U.N. team visited the region’s capital, known as Stepanakret by Armenia and Khankendi by Azerbaijan, a couple of weeks after Azerbaijani forces seized the territory. Over 100,000 ethnic Armenians have fled the region over fears of persecution and ethnic cleansing as Karabakh is integrated into Azerbaijan. Reuters UN News The Guardian
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