6:00 PM ET, Monday, July 31, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
White House Panel Says FBI Access to Section 702 Data Should Be Restricted. The President’s Intelligence Advisory Board (PIAB), a White House panel of current and former officials and security experts, has recommended that the FBI’s access to intelligence collected under Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) be curtailed. Section 702 allows for surveillance of non-Americans abroad for foreign intelligence purposes, but it also collects data on U.S. persons and entities that communicate with the non-U.S. persons. At issue is the FBI’s access to this data following reports that the FBI abused and mishandled information from the Section 702 database. To remedy this, the panel is recommending that the FBI only be allowed to use the database for foreign intelligence purposes and in national security cases. The panel added that despite FBI issues with Section 702, the surveillance power must be renewed, saying that if the authority is allowed to expire at the end of the year, it will be “one of the worst intelligence failures of our time.” Bloomberg Cyberscoop Wall Street Journal
U.S. Army Developing Tank-Busting Drone. The U.S. Army is developing a portable, tank-killing drone tailored for infantry troops. The drone is called the Low Altitude and Stalking Ordnance (LASSO) and will provide soldiers a one-way “suicide” drone to target tanks with. The Army is still finalizing plans with the defense industry on the project, but it seeks to deploy the drone by 2024. The development of LASSO comes amid increased use of expendable single-use drones to target armor in the Ukraine war. Defense News
U.S. Army General Dies in Plane Crash in Maryland. U.S. Major General Anthony Potts died in a plane crash near Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland on Friday. Potts was a longtime U.S. Army acquisition officer and, until weeks ago, led the U.S. Army’s Program Executive Office Command, Control and Communications-Tactical (PEO C3T). Local authorities say Potts died at the scene of the crash and was the only person in the single-engine plane that crashed. Authorities are still investigating the incident. Defense News
Mexican President Urges End to Russia-Ukraine War. Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on Monday called for an end to the war in Ukraine while urging both Russian and Ukrainian representation at upcoming talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Lopez Obrador said that Mexico is ready to support a peace process, saying that “if there’s acceptance of both Ukraine and Russia to look for solutions to achieve peace, we’ll participate.” Lopez Obrador has sought to keep Mexico neutral in the war, choosing neither to send military aid to Ukraine or impose sanctions on Russia. However, he has backed UN resolutions criticizing Russia’s role in the conflict. Reuters
Western Europe
Nordic Governments Seek to Contain Fallout Over Continued Quran Burnings. Sweden and Denmark saw more burnings of the Quran on Monday as both governments continue to seek ways to legally limit such acts. The latest demonstrations included a Quran burning in front of the Swedish parliament in Stockholm and another burning outside the Saudi Arabian embassy in Copenhagen. The burnings have caused outrage from countries across the Islamic world which have demanded the Nordic governments prohibit further burnings. Both the Swedish and Danish governments have condemned the burnings but say they cannot stop them due to free speech laws. The Danish government said it is seeking to find a “legal tool” that could enable authorities to intervene in such demonstrations that are deemed to potentially have “significant negative consequences for Denmark” including regarding security. Sweden said it is looking for similar solutions. Right-wing elements in both countries have denounced the initiatives with some saying any move against the burnings will be infringements of free speech. Reuters
France, Italy Upgrading Frigates. French and Italian Horizon-class frigates are getting major mid-life upgrades. The pan-European acquisition entity Organization for Joint Armament Cooperation (OCCAR) awarded a 1.5 billion euro ($1.7 billion deal) to co-contractors Eurosam and Naviris earlier this month to lead the upgrade project. The refurbishment will add new anti-air warfare capabilities to the frigates, including a new generation Principal Anti-Air Missile System (PAAMS) and Long-Range Radar (LRR). Four upgraded frigates will be delivered to the Italian and French navies, with Italy receiving the two between 2027 and 2029 and France receiving the other two between 202first9 to 2030. Defense News
UK Sanctions Russian Judges, Officials Linked to Opposition Politician Trial. Britain on Monday sanctioned Russian judges and officials involved in the trial of Russian opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza. Kara-Murza, who has Russian and British citizenship, was jailed in April for treason and other offenses. RIA state news agency reports that he lost an appeal against his 25-year jail sentence, which British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called “desperate and unfounded.” Those targeted by the sanctions include Moscow CIty Court Judges Vitaly Belitsky, Ekaterina Mikhailovna Dorokhina and Natalia Nikolaevna Dudar. Reuters The Guardian
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukrainian Troops Recount Bloody Effort to Liberate Village of Staromaiorske. Ukrainian troops at the southeastern front recaptured the village of Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region last Thursday. Though considered one of Ukraine’s biggest advances in weeks, the battle was tougher and bloodier than expected. Progress was slow as Russian soldiers in the village set up entrenched defenses. According to one front-line Ukrainian soldier, the Russian troops that they encountered were better prepared than expected and “were waiting” for the advancing Ukrainians. Ukrainian commanders recounted that steady attacks aimed at whittling down Russian troops’ will to fight were key to victory. The battle for Staromairoske demonstrated challenges to the Ukrainian counteroffensive against formidable Russian defenses and firepower, which Ukrainian troops elsewhere on the front are also facing. New York Times Reuters
Russian Air Strikes Hit Zelensky’s Hometown, Other Ukrainian Cities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a Russian air strike hit his hometown of Kryvyi Rih on Monday, killing six people and wounding up to 75. Footage posted by Zelensky showed multi-story residential buildings damaged in the attack. Local emergency services say at least 43 people were wounded in the strike. Officials report that rocket attacks on the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson killed two more people as well. Reuters Al Jazeera
Croatia Permits Ports to Be Used to Export Ukrainian Grain. Ukraine and Croatia have agreed to the possible export of Ukrainian grain from Croatian ports on the Danube and Adriatic Sea. Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Dmytro Kuleba announced the agreement after meeting his Croatian counterpart on Monday, saying that the two sides will now “work to establish the most efficient routes to these ports” and that the deal is an “effective contribution to the world’s food security.” The agreement came after Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal and subsequently launched attacks on Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. Ukraine has since been forced to rely on land export routes and alternative ports on the Danube River, which Russia has also attacked, to get its grain abroad. Kuleba added that he and his Croatian counterpart mainly discussed military aid for Ukraine, without elaborating. Reuters
Russia Will Monitor but Not Attend Saudi-Hosted Ukraine Peace Talks. Russia said Monday that it will closely monitor but not participate in talks on the Ukraine war that are set to take place in Saudi Arabia early next month. Saudi Arabia is planning to host peace talks in Jeddah on August 5 and 6 with representatives from around 30 countries. Russia was not invited to the talks, but Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow will “follow this meeting,” adding that attempts at peaceful resolution are “worthy of a positive assessment.” However, Peskov reiterated claims that Ukraine is not open to negotiations. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently said there could be no cease-fire while Ukrainian forces are “on the offensive.” Politico WSJ
Asia and Oceania
China Announces Export Controls on Drone-Related Equipment. China’s Commerce Ministry on Monday announced export controls on drone-related equipment. The measures include restrictions on some drone engines, lasers, communication equipment and anti-drone systems. According to officials some consumer drones will also be affected, and no civilian drones will be exported for military purposes. The ministry also said the controls will take effect on September 1 and are aimed at “safeguarding national security and interests.” The move comes after China announced export controls on chipmaking metals in July in response to efforts by the U.S. and its allies to restrict Beijing’s access to chipmaking technology. China has a large drone manufacturing industry. U.S. lawmakers say Chinese-based drone maker DJI makes over 50% of drones sold in the U.S. and are a favorite of public safety agencies. DJI said it follows relevant laws and regulations and maintains it does not design and sell products for military use. Nikkei Asia Reuters Financial Times
China Names New Rocket Force Leadership. Chinese President Xi Jinping appointed General Wang Houbin, the navy’s former deputy commander, as the new head of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force. Xi additionally moved Xu Xisheng from the Southern Theater Command to be the PLA Rocket Force’s new political commissar. Both Wang and Xu were promoted from the rank of lieutenant general to full general for the appointments and will now oversee China’s conventional and nuclear missile arsenals. The Rocket Force is the key element in China’s nuclear deterrence strategy. The leadership shuffle comes amid reports that the Central Military Commission’s anti-corruption unit is investigating the Rocket Force’s former commander, Li Yuchao, and his current and former deputies, Zhang Zhenzhong and Liu Gangbin. Chinese authorities have not publicly announced anything about the reported investigation. The sudden replacement of a Chinese fighting force’s commander and political chief is rare, though a similar change was made to the leadership of the People’s Armed Police in 2014 when its former head was accused of corruption. Xi has urged the Chinese military to strengthen anti-graft efforts along with its modernization drive and deepening war planning. Reuters South China Morning Post
Chinese Russia Expert Retires After Move from Foreign Ministry. Le Yucheng, a career Chinese diplomat and Russia expert who was a key voice on Beijing’s policy towards Moscow, has retired. State media reported that Le, a former foreign vice-minister, retired as deputy head of the National Radio and Television Administration (NRTA) after turning 60. Le was transferred from the foreign ministry to the NRTA, which oversees state media, in June last year in an unexplained transfer that was widely seen as a demotion. Experts note that Le’s departure left no senior officials with Russian expertise left in the foreign ministry. Le was the first to describe China and Russia’s relationship as a “friendship without limits” in 2019. South China Morning Post
China, UAE to Hold First Joint Air Force Drills. China and the UAE are set to hold their first ever joint air force exercises in August. China’s defense ministry said the “Falcon Shield 2023” drills will take place in China’s northwestern Xinjiang region. The ministry did not provide details on the size of the UAE contingent or the duration or scope of the training, saying only that the exercises aim to boost cooperation and trust between China and the UAE. The drills come as Beijing seeks to bolster its economic and security ties with Middle Eastern partners. The UAE is a traditional U.S. ally and has trained with the U.S. military and uses U.S. weapons. The UAE also uses some Chinese drones and missiles and cooperates with China on anti-piracy operations and port infrastructure projects. At the first China-Arab States summit in December, China and the UAE agreed to expand military cooperation. South China Morning Post
Myanmar Junta Postpones Promised Elections. Myanmar’s ruling military junta officially postponed elections promised for August this year. The postponement came as junta leader General Min Aung Hlaing extended a state of emergency by six more months. The military had previously pledged to hold elections by August 2023 after it overthrew the elected government in its 2021 coup. The military blamed ongoing violence as a reason to postpone the vote. Myanmar has been in chaos since the coup with a resistance movement fighting the military and a crackdown on opposition. Western powers imposed sanctions on Myanmar in response. Reuters
Islamic State Claims Responsibility for Pakistan Suicide Bombing. The Islamic State affiliate in South Asia claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing at a political rally in the Bajur district in northwestern Pakistan on Sunday. The attack killed at least 54 people and wounded around 200 others. Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) said it carried out the attack as part of its war against democracy as a system of government. The bombing targeted a rally for pro-Taliban cleric Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the leader of Jamiat Ulema Islam, a political party that generally supports regional Islamists. Rehman was not at the rally. Analysts say the attack has sparked concerns that Pakistan’s deteriorating security situation will impact the upcoming general election in the fall, which is seen as a key to restoring political stability following unrest over former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s removal from office. New York Times
Middle East and Northern Africa
Clashes in Palestinian Camp in Lebanon Leaves 9 Dead. Three days of clashes between Palestinian factions at a refugee camp in Lebanon have so far killed 9 people. The fighting is between members of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ Fatah party and Islamist groups. The violence began Saturday when an unknown gunman tried to assassinate Palestinian militant Mahmoud Khalil but fatally shot his companion instead. Clashes erupted on Sunday when Islamic militants shot and killed a Palestinian military general, and three escorts, according to a Palestinian official. On Monday afternoon, Lebanese lawmaker Osama Saad, who represents the Sidon area that camp is located in, announced a ceasefire agreement. Associated Press
Israeli High Court to Hear Petitions against Judiciary Overhaul in September. Israel’s Supreme Court announced on Monday that it will hear petitions in September in regard to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s judicial reform plan. Israel’s parliament passed the first of a series of laws in the plan aimed at curbing the power of the judiciary in the plan last week. The first law prohibits Israeli courts from ruling against legislation for “reasonableness.” The standard was implemented earlier this year in order to prevent the appointment of an ally of Netanyahu as Interior Minister after he recently pleaded guilty to tax offenses. Critics say the reform plan will damage Israel’s democracy, while supporters say it limits the power of unelected judges. Associated Press
Sub Saharan Africa
Niger Military Junta Arrests Politicians from Ousted Government. The military junta that seized power in Niger detained numerous senior politicians from the ousted government on Monday. Arrests have continued to widen in defiance of international calls to restore democratic leadership. Junta forces arrested the former government's mines minister, the head of the ruling party, and an oil minister. The U.N., African Union, and the European Union have condemned the junta’s overthrow of the government of elected president Mohamed Bazoum. The coup has raised security concerns in the surrounding Sahel region since the U.S., France, and other Western states have troops in Niger that were working with the government to combat militant forces linked to Islamic State and al Qaeda. Reuters France24
Senegal Opposition Leader Charged with Conspiracy. Senegal’s public prosecutor office announced on Saturday that opposition leader Ousmane Sonko has been charged with conspiracy against the state, calling for insurrection, criminal conspiracy to commit terrorism, compromising public security, and theft. The announcement comes after Sonko was acquitted on rape charges back in June but was convicted on a lighter charge of corrupting young people. The conviction led to deadly protests that resulted in the deaths of 23 people. It is unclear what led to the charges since Sonko has reportedly remained in his home since his sentencing. Sonko has stated in a tweet on Friday shortly before his arrest that a team of soldiers were breaking down the door following an altercation with secret service agents. Associated Press
Cyber and Tech
White House Releases National Cyber Workforce Strategy. Acknowledging a gap of 3.4 million qualified cybersecurity workers across the globe, the White House announced a National Cyber Workforce and Education Strategy (NCWES) to spur employment and training and to equip ordinary Americans with the skills needed to operate safely and effectively in cyberspace. According to the announcement, the strategy seeks to build digital skills, especially for employment in “good-paying, middle-class cyber jobs within their communities.” The White House underscored the need for a wide coalition of partners and stakeholders from government, education, and industry to work together to achieve the strategy’s goals. The strategy describes as “guiding imperatives” three key elements — leveraging adaptable ecosystems to effect change at scale; enabling the lifelong development of cyber skills; and expanding and enhancing the cyber workforce by improving its diversity and inclusion. Camille Stewart Gloster, the deputy national cyber director, noted that the strategy “is just the first step.” Development of the NCWES involved collaboration with 34 agencies, departments, and components of the Office of the President. Feedback on strategy drafts was provided by more than 200 “request-for-information” responses and in person sessions with external stakeholders. The White House InfoSecurityMagazine
‘Nimble’ Tech Startups, AI May Shape Pentagon Approach to Weapons Development. The recent experience of how a British start-up company operating small, unmanned vessels to monitor fish populations was transformed into a key element of the U.S. Navy’s development of autonomous surveillance vessels demonstrates how “nimble” private sector, AI-enabled technologies can be put to military uses. As the Financial Times reports, the autonomous vessels deployed to the Bering Sea by the UK start-up Saildrone made significant contributions to scientific research on climate change. But in 2021, with a U.S. Navy contract and substantial venture capital investments, Saildrone started developing “Saildrone Surveyor,” a 65-foot autonomous vessel designed for deep ocean intelligence gathering. Saildrone CEO Richard Jenkins said the company’s products were “10 years ahead” and reinforced the argument that “commercial tech is so much more advanced and more nimble” than technology programs carried out by the military itself. The Financial Times points out that the Saildrone example provides a “blueprint” for the Pentagon’s transition from dependence on “heavy hardware” – tanks, ships, aircraft – to broader use of “disruptive systems” like the new AI-powered technologies that may transform warfare itself. According to the Times, the transition is accelerated by China’s rising development of advanced weapons as well as Ukraine’s experience in quick-turnaround battlefield technologies and the surge in AI development. Obstacles remain to successful reinvention, however, including the historic influence major defense contractors like Lockheed Martin and Boeing have over Pentagon procurements. Steve Blank, a founding member of a national security innovation training center at Stanford, said, “for the first time ever, the U.S. military is dependent on commercial tech to win a war, but they’re not organized to deal with commercial tech.” By contrast, Blank noted, “China operates like Silicon Valley,” adding “it’s not a fair fight.” But signs of change are present. Venture capitalist Mike Brown explained that “what’s happened in Ukraine has been a game-changer. …That has got the wheels turning for the US military, which is saying, ‘We need to adopt far more of this’.” Financial Times
Chinese Expert Describes Planned Satellite Constellation, Critiques Starlink Operations. An aerospace expert with the China Academy of Aerospace Aerodynamics in Beijing has provided insights into “Project Guowang (National Network),” China’s program to deploy a 13,000-satellite telecommunications and Internet constellation. Qu Wei, an aerothermal specialist, said the project sponsored by the National Development and Reform Commission will place constellation satellites in lower orbits than those operated by the U.S. “to minimize collision risks and maintain safe distances.” Qu added in an article for the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Daily that lower orbit satellites are highly resilient and enjoy flexible deployment and large transmission advantages. He said that for China to realize the constellation, it must “master reusable rocket technologies” and develop methane-fueled rockets, a requirement on which the country “just recently made important progress.” Most satellites of the competitor Starlink network operate at an altitude of 550 km, with some at 350 km. The orbital height of Guowang satellites has not yet been determined. China’s Tiangong space station orbits at 390 km. Qu wrote that Starlink’s current and planned constellation amounts to an “enclosure movement” in low-earth orbit. He observed that the eventual total number of Starlink satellites makes low-earth orbits “really crowded and dangerous” and occupy a large number of frequency bands “which limits the use of space by other nations.” Qu also said Starlink satellites have possible military applications, including interfering with navigation signals, coordinating high-precision strikes, and destroying targets in space. South China Morning Post
Read deeply-experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis and opinion inThe Cipher Brief
