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6:00 PM ET, Monday, August 28, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

The Americas

China, U.S. Agree to Working Group on Trade, Chip Export Controls.  U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo began her trip to China with a meeting with Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao in Beijing on Monday.  The two commerce chiefs agreed to establish a new working group on commercial issues and the exchange of information on export controls.  The U.S. Commerce Department said the group will meet twice a year at the vice-ministerial level.  The first meeting will take place in Beijing on Tuesday.  The two sides also agreed to have their commerce ministers meet at least once a year.  Sources say during the talks with Wang, Raimondo also raised concerns about Chinese restrictions on American businesses, including bans on the sale of products from Intel and Micron Technology.  Their discussions also reportedly covered China’s recent export controls on gallium and germanium.  Nikkei Asia Reuters Wall Street Journal

Pentagon Announces Major Autonomous Systems Initiative.  The Pentagon is launching the “Replicator” program to field thousands of autonomous systems across “multiple domains” over the next two years.  Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks announced the program on Monday, saying that it is specifically aimed at addressing the Chinese military’s advantage in “mass” with innovation, which she said is best applied towards attritable, autonomous systems, noting the extensive use of drones in the Ukraine war.  Replicator will be overseen by Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Christopher Grady, with support from Doug Beck, director of the Defense Innovation Unit.  More details will be released in the coming weeks.  Breaking Defense Defense News

U.S. Moving to Address Cyber Threat to Power Grids.  ​​The U.S. is scrambling to make sure that possible weaknesses in the software used to operate American infrastructure has not been penetrated by Chinese or Russian hostile actors.  According to a CNBC report, analysis of U.S. vulnerabilities have revealed that 90% of software used to manage the U.S. electric grid has open source code created by either Russian or Chinese developers.  Researchers said this code is three times more likely to contain vulnerabilities.  The estimated cost of replacing the vulnerable code is roughly $40 billion.  CISA is reaching out to the open source community to help replace the software and ensure it is secure.  CNBC

Haiti Police Investigating Killings of Parishioners.  A group of parishioners in Haiti reportedly took up arms against local gangs, resulting in several members of the group being fatally shot.  Haiti National Police Chief Frantz Elbe said the group’s religious leader, Marcorel Zidor, led the parishioners on Saturday towards territory controlled by the “Five Seconds” gang.  Elbe said ensuing clashes led to the deaths and kidnappings of “multiple” people, though specific casualties are still unclear.  Haitian police said they attempted to dissuade the parishioners “to avoid a carnage by criminals who have an arsenal of war” and that officers were unable to control the crowd because it has split into two groups. Pastor Zidor could not be reached for comment and the church gates have been closed with no one responding to requests for entry.  Associated Press

Central and Eastern Europe

Ukraine Says Russian Police Base in Occupied City Bombed.  Ukrainian Defense Intelligence announced that an explosion in the Russian-occupied city of Enerhodar hit the headquarters of Russia’s OMON Akhmat-1 special riot police force unit.  Ukrainian Defense Intelligence said it coordinated with a “local resistance movement” to cause the blast, which damaged a “barracks” of the unit.  Ukrainian Defense Intelligence posted a video of the explosion occurring after a drone flew towards the building.  It also said it is assessing casualties.  A Russian-appointed official in occupied Zaporizhzhia confirmed a drone attack on a military-civilian administration building in Enerhodar, but said there were no personnel casualties from the bombing.  CNN

Ukrainian Commander Stresses that Russia Cannot Establish Defenses Around Bakhmut.  Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Assault Brigade, which is fighting around Bakhmut, said on his Telegram that it is critical to prevent Russian forces from establishing proper defenses in the area.  He specifically warned that it will be a “significant problem” if Russia is able to lay out minefields and build fortifications in Bakhmut to the level of those in the Zaporizhzhia region, noting that Ukrainian troops on the southern front are struggling to break through those defenses.  Zhorin said that Ukrainian troops around Bakhmut are currently preventing Russian forces from building similar defenses with continued offensive operations.  The Ukrainian military says it is still advancing in the Bakhmut direction despite constant Russian shelling and counterattacks.  CNN

Zelensky Says Seeking Israel-Style Security Guarantees.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with Ukrainian media that he hopes the U.S. will give UKraine similar security guarantees to those given to Israel.  Zelensky said the guarantees would provide “weapons, technology, training, finances” to Kyiv and would be established through the process of Ukraine’s accession to NATO, but reinforced through a bilateral agreement with the U.S.  Zelensky added that such a pact would be approved by Congress, meaning it would not depend on who is in The White House.  CNN

Russia Says it Intercepted U.S. Drone Near Crimea.  The Russian Ministry of Defense said it deployed two fighter jets to intercept U.S. Air Force MQ-9 “Reaper” and RQ-4 “Global Hawk” drones near the Crimean Peninsula.  The ministry stated that the drones were detected over the southwestern part of the Black Sea and that it dispatched the jets in order to “counter any radio-technical reconnaissance,” adding that the drones left the area once the jets approached.  Pentagon spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Garron Garn responded to the incident stating that the US “will continue to fly routine missions over the Black Sea as permitted by international law to ensure freedom of navigation and maneuver in the region."  Al Jazeera CNN

Russia Relying on Small, Obscure Shipping Firms to Obtain Drones.  Russia is working around Western sanctions to continue acquiring military drones from Iran by using a network of obscure shipping and logistics companies.  Ukrainian government documents show that Moscow is using ships in the Caspian Sea which have yet to be sanctioned by Western nations since they have less overt connections to the Russian government.  The U.S. has acknowledged this Caspian route, but it is harder for Western governments to impact since it is a direct route between Russia and Iran with few links to the Western financial system.  To address this and other rerouted and less overt delivery routes, Kyiv is calling on stricter export controls on commercially available electronics found in the drones.  Wall Street Journal

Poland, Baltics to Close Belarus Border if ‘Critical Incident’ Occurs. Poland and the Baltic states have said that they will close their borders with Belarus entirely in the event that a “critical incident” involving Wagner were to take place, according to the Polish interior minister. Both EU and NATO members that share borders with Belarus have been increasingly worried about border security since hundreds of Wagner mercenaries arrived in Belarus at the invitation of President Alexander Lukashenko. These countries have also blamed Belarus for sending an influx of Middle Eastern and African migrants across their borders, which Minsk denies.  The Polish interior minister, speaking in a joint press conference with his Lithuanian, Latvian, and Estonian counterparts said on Monday that they are demanding “that the Wagner Group immediately leave the territory of Belarus and that illegal migrants immediately leave the border area and are sent back to their home countries.”  Poland has so far closed all but one border crossing point with Belarus, in response to Minsk’s expulsion of Polish diplomats and Belarusian authorities imprisoning a journalist of Polish origin.  Reuters CNN

Poland Investigating Radio Signals that Caused Disruptions to Trains.  Polish law enforcement are investigating multiple cases of disruptions to trains due to unauthorized radio signals.  Two men in their 20s were arrested Sunday after allegedly generating intercom signals that halted five passenger trains and one cargo train near Bialystok in northeastern Poland. Polish media reported that similar “radio-stop” signals had briefly stopped some passenger and cargo trains in other regions across Poland, and that in some cases the signals played the Russian anthem.  Authorities say no injuries have been reported nor was there any threat to public security from the train disruptions.  Poland’s Internal Security Agency, ABW, directly accused Russia of causing the signals, in collaboration with Belarus.”  The ABW has so far arrested 16 suspects, mostly foreigners, on allegations of spying for Russia, such as through gathering information on the Polish railway system.  Associated Press 

Asia and Oceania

Canadian Naval Vessels Arrive in Japan.  Three Canadian naval vessels — two Royal Canadian warships, the Ottawa and Vancouver, and the supply ship Asterix — arrived in Japan’s Yokosuka port on Monday.  The vessels will be at Yokosuka, which houses the baes of the U.S. Navy and Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force, until Friday to refuel and resupply before joining joint exercises with partners in the region, with the Ottawa focusing on Southeast Asia and the Vancouver focusing on Northeast Asia, where it will also support monitoring of North Korea.  The deployments are part of Canada’s efforts to boost its Indo-Pacific military presence to support and integrate with allies amid increasing tensions with China.  Nikkei Asia

Arms Makers Relocating Centers of Asian Operations to Japan.  Defense contractors around the world are shifting their center of operations in Asia to Japan, as Tokyo prepares to boost its defense spending amid growing tensions in East Asia.  British-owned BAE Systems will be shifting its supervisory functions in Asia to Japan from Malaysia by the end of this year, similar to Lockheed Martin who has already completed the transfer.  The influx of foreign defense businesses is expected to hit local companies, whose current production of defense equipment is barely breaking even.  In contrast, local mid-sized suppliers to defense manufacturers may stand to benefit with potential increases in orders from foreign companies.  Nikkei Asia

Putin Not Visiting India for G20 Summit.  Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be physically attending the G20 summit in New Delhi next month, and will instead be represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.  Putin reportedly notified Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi of his planned absence in a phone call on Monday, in which the two leaders discussed ties between the two countries.  Putin has been unable to travel outside of Russia due to an International Criminal Court warrant against him over his alleged role in the forced deportation of children from Ukraine.  The warrant also prevented Putin from visiting South Africa for last week's BRICS Summit.  Reuters

Biden to Visit Vietnam Next Month.  The White House announced on Monday that President Joe Biden will be visiting Hanoi to meet with General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong and other Vietnamese leaders next month.  Biden is set to travel to Vietnam on September 10 after attending the annual Group of 20 leaders’ Summit in India.  White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Perry said that Biden will use his visit to Vietnam to discuss opportunities for economic collaboration, people-to-people exchanges, cooperation to address climate change, and joint efforts to ensure peace and stability in the region.  His trip will come amid heightened tensions in the South China Sea.  Associated Press

Middle East and Northern Africa

Iran, Iraq Agree to Disarming, Relocation of Kurdistan Militants. Iran and Iraq have agreed on the disarmament and relocation of “armed terrorist groups'' in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, according to Iran’s foreign ministry.  Under the deal, Iraq will disarm and close the bases of the “armed separatists and terrorist groups present in its territory” and relocate them by September 19.  It was not specified where these militants would be relocated to. The demand to remove these militants was outlined in the border security agreement signed by Iran and Iraq in March of this year.  Iran has accused Iraq’s autonomous northern Kurdish region of harboring terrorist cells, with the Revolutionary Guards frequently targeting their bases.  Reuters Al Jazeera Associated Press

Reported Israeli Strike in Aleppo.  Syrian state media reports that an Israeli air strike hit the international airport in Aleppo early Monday.  The report said the air strike, conducted by Israeli planes coming from the Mediterranean Sea, allegedly damaged a runway, and put it out of service.  No casualties were reported. The Aleppo airport has allegedly been targeted several times this year. There was no immediate comment from Israeli officials.  Associated Press  

Clashes Erupt Between Two US-allies in Syria.  Clashes broke out between two U.S. backed groups in Syria on Monday, leaving three people dead and raising tensions in the region.  The clashes took place between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Deir el-Zour Military Council, which was previously allied with the SDF in the fight against Islamic State.  The fighting started after SDF detained a commander and several other members of the Deir el-Zour Military Council after they were invited to a meeting in the northeastern city of Hassakeh on Sunday.  The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said SDF was concerned that the commander from the rival faction was opening links with the Syrian and Turkish governments.  The Observatory said three members of the Deir el-Zour Military Council were killed in the violence.  The incident could increase tensions between Kurds and Arabs in the region.  Associated Press

Iran Summons Swiss Diplomat Over US Seizure of Iranian Oil.  Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it summoned the charge d’affaires of the Swiss Embassy in Tehran to protest the “seizure of Iranian oil” by the U.S.  The ministry’s remarks referred to Iranian crude oil from the tanker Suez Rajan, which was reportedly seized by the U.S. tanker MR Euphrates unloaded crude from the Suez Rajan, which has been waiting off the Texan coast for over two months.  Commercial agents have refused to unload the 800,000 barrel ship over concerns that customers would shun whoever decided to do so.  Iran has also threatened to retaliate against any company that unloads oil from the vessel.  The oil is worth an estimated $56 million and will reportedly be used to contribute to the U.S. Victims of State Sponsored Terrorism Fund.  Tehran summoned the Swiss diplomat to object to the unloading of the tanker since Geneva facilitates indirect diplomatic communications between Iran and the U.S.  Associated Press

Sub Saharan Africa

Sudan Army Leader Promises Decisive Victory, Dashes Hopes of Ceasefire. Sudan’s military ruler Abdel Fattah al-Burhan dashed any hopes of talks to end a months-long war between the army and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) by promising on Monday to win a decisive victory over the RSF, which he labeled as “traitors.”  Burhan said he will not make deals with those who have “betrayed” the Sudanese people, adding that the SDF are “completely exhausted — just a little effort and the will be finished.”  His speech came one day after the head of the RSF communicated his openness for talks and a ceasefire.  Burhan is expected to travel to Saudi Arabia and Egypt, prompting speculation as to whether he is seeking a deal for foreign support.  Burhan has denied his forces have received any foreign assistance.  Reuters

Islamist Militants Blockade Mali’s Timbuktu. A two-week long blockade by Islamist militants of the Malian city of Timbuktu has led to severe food and aid shortages, according to the mayor and residents. Timbuktu has seen its security diminish, similar to most of northern and eastern Mali, since the French forces liberated it from militants in 2013 after an uprising.  The local al-Qaeda affiliate known as JNIM has blocked the roads to Timbuktu since around August 13th, residents say.  It’s currently unclear what spurred the blockade.  Earlier this month, JNIM had announced its fighters had imposed a two-week siege on a village to pressure its residents to stop helping the army, according to SITE Intelligence Group. The U.N. peacekeeping operation in Mali, MINUSMA, is currently withdrawing from the north after the ruling junta had requested they leave.  Reuters

Russia Pledges to Continue Support for Mali After Prigozhin’s Death. Russia said on Monday that it is committed to continuing to support Mali following the reported death of Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash last week.  Russia made the promise at the United Nations, saying that it will also cooperate with other interested African partners.  There are currently around 1,000 Wagner group fighters in Mali helping the country’s military fight against an Islamist insurgency.  Reuters

Attack in Eastern Congo Kills 14.  Local officials and civil society leaders in Democratic Republic of Congo said Monday that at least 14 people were killed in eastern Congo on Sunday during a militia attack on a church.  Officials say the militia group Cooperative for the Development of the Congo (CODECO) was behind the attack.  Nine civilians, four assailants and one soldier were reportedly killed in the attack.  According to a U.N. humanitarian agency, the CODECO raids have worsened the longstanding humanitarian crisis in the eastern province of Ituri, where approximately 3 million people are in desperate need of aid.  Reuters

Cyber and Tech

Chinese University Reports Breakthrough in Ultra-Thin Material for Wafer Manufacture.  A Chinese research breakthrough in production of ultra-thin, two-dimensional (2D) semiconductor material is opening a pathway to next-generation semiconductors, according to a Peking University project leader.  Prof. Liu Kaihui, lead scientist on the project, told the South China Morning Post that his team has used the new material to manufacture 12-inch wafers, an achievement that could complement traditional silicon chips.  Liu explained, “a transistor built from a single layer of MoS2 with a thickness of about one nanometre outperforms the one made with the same thickness of silicon many times.”  The researchers resolved issues with scaling up the size of wafers and producing them in quantity, leading to a product with “excellent semiconducting properties.”  Liu pointed to the potential of the new wafer, noting “if there are industrial demands in the future, progress in this field will advance by leaps and bounds.”  The 2D material is made up of crystalline solids with one to several layers of atoms. The wafers’ natural atomic-level thickness could lead to applications in many high-performance electronic devices.  South China Morning Post

Space Force, Pentagon Innovation Unit Announce Orbital Threat Inspection Project.  The Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) is teaming up with the Space Force to launch a follow-up project, Victus Haze, to conduct precise, on-orbit inspection of a simulated threatening spacecraft.  Victus Haze is an element of the Space Force’s Victus Nox program to launch a prototype satellite within 24 hours of a “go” order.  The follow-on project begins with a call for industry proposals to create the on-orbit inspection capability, including “logistics, ground segment, launch service, on-orbit operations, and spacecraft bus.”  Victus Haze is under the management of the Space Systems Command’s Space Safari program office, which in a joint statement with the DIU noted the growing number of space-based threats, adding that the new project “will help provide the advantage we need to assess the threats and continue our ability to freely maneuver in space.”  The Victus Nox satellite is awaiting the order to launch into low-Earth orbit on a Firefly Aerospace Alpha rocket, which could occur at any time from now until the end of the year.   For the Victus Haze competition, vendors will need to assure their prototype satellite can be “flight ready” within 12 to 18 months, and will be capable of providing threat assessments to the Space Force within 48 hours of reaching orbit.  BreakingDefense  DefenseScoop

South Korea To Toughen Sentencing Guidelines for Industrial Espionage Crimes.  South Korea has announced tougher penalties for those convicted on industrial espionage, with new sentencing guidelines to be issued early in 2024.  According to a South Korean Industry Ministry statement, the toughened punishments followed authorities’ conclusion that existing laws were not strong enough to discourage theft of technology secrets from high-tech firms, like Samsung.  The industry ministry did not specify the country that has benefited most from past industrial espionage, although analysts believe China is the destination for the majority of South Korean technology leaks.  South Korea’s punishments for technology leaks, especially those that impact national or economic security, are similar to other countries, but actual sentences for such crimes fall short due to stringent standards of proof prosecutors must meet.   Cases to date have result in 30 percent acquittals and 54 percent in suspended sentences.   A new revised draft law that will be submitted to parliament also will address technology leaks not previously regulated, such as disclosures that follow buy-outs of South Korean companies by a foreign private equity fund.  In June, South Korean police arrested 77 people in 35 cases of suspected industrial espionage following a four-month nationwide investigation.  Reuters

Army Forces Will Have Secure Global Network Access by Next Summer.  U.S. Army units worldwide will have secure network access by this time next summer, a capability never before possible.  Lt. Gen. John Morrison, the army’s chief information officer, told the TechNet Augusta conference last week that the secure communications capability exists currently throughout the Pacific, adding, “by the end of this calendar year, you’ll be able to do it globally and you’ll be able to do it secure (by next summer).”  From an operational standpoint, he said, units called to respond to a national emergency will be able to arrive at “the distant end and immediately (be) able to plug in.  We’ve been talking about that for years.”  The prior model of theater-centric networks is no longer viable in light of the global threats that exist at present. For the past three years, the Army has been developing its unified network plan, a single, global network that forces can plug into anywhere as well as units in transit.  Part of this transition involved the Army consolidating the portfolios of some program executive offices to ensure all network capabilities are under one roof.   Beginning October 1, all enterprise capabilities that previously existed under PEO Enterprise Information Systems will reside under PEO Command, Control, Communications-Tactical.  DefenseScoop

Japan Delays Lunar Mission. Japan’s space agency has suspended a planned launch on Monday. The rocket was carrying what would potentially be Japan’s first spacecraft to land on the moon. The launch was halted due to high winds.  A new launch date has not been set as of now, but it will be no sooner than Thursday due to the necessary processes such as refueling. The rocket's launch has been postponed twice since last week due to bad weather conditions. The rocket is carrying JAXA’s Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM). JAXA is aiming to follow the success of India’s Chandrayaan-3 lunar mission this month.  Reuters

Canada Highlights Cybercrime Threat.  According to a report published by Canada’s Communications and Security Establishment (CSE), organized crime is set to pose a heightened threat to Canada’s national security and economic prosperity.  The report said that ransomware attacks on critical infrastructure such as hospitals and pipelines can be particularly profitable, adding that “ransomware is almost certainly the most disruptive form of cybercrime facing Canada because it is pervasive and can have a serious impact on an organization's ability to function.”  Additionally, CSE identified Russia and Iran as key cybercrime safe havens where criminals can freely operate against Western targets, adding that Russian intelligence services and law enforcement almost certainly maintain relationships with cyber criminals and allow them to operate with near impunity as long as they focus on targets outside of the former Soviet Union.  Reuters

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