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6:00 PM ET, Friday, September 22, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

THE TOP STORIES:

U.S. Reportedly Set to Send ATACMS to Ukraine.  The U.S. is reportedly set to send a small number of Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles to Ukraine in the coming weeks.  Sources said President Joe Biden told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during their meeting at the White House on Thursday that he is willing to send the weapon.  Anonymous officials added that the U.S. will send a variant of ATACMS missiles armed with cluster bombs, rather than with a single warhead.  ATACMS missiles can strike targets between 100 and 190 miles away, depending on the version, and could allow Ukraine to hit Russian command posts, ammunition stocks and supply routes far behind the front lines.  Ukraine has long requested the weapons, but the U.S. has been hesitant to send them over concerns that Ukraine could use them to strike inside Russian territory.  The Pentagon was also reportedly concerned that it could not pull enough ATACMS from U.S. stocks without impacting the readiness of U.S. forces elsewhere.  There are reportedly more of the cluster-armed version of the ATACMS in U.S. stocks than those with a unitary warhead.  (Editor’s note: Several Cipher Brief experts have urged the Biden administration to send ATACMS to Ukraine, arguing that the capability is critical for Ukraine to succeed in countering Russian forces.)  National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said ahead of Biden and Zelensky’s meeting that the U.S. would not be sending ATACMS to Ukraine yet.  The White House and State Department did not comment on the matter.  NBC News ​​Washington Post Wall Street Journal Reuters

Senator Menendez Charged With Bribery in Case Linked to Egypt.  U.S. Senator Robert Menendez (D-NJ) has been hit with bribery charges in a scheme involving Egypt.  The U.S. Attorney’s office in Manhattan has claimed that Menendez accepted hundreds of thousands of dollar’s worth of cash and gold bars in exchange for utilizing his power to help approve military assistance for Egypt withheld over human rights concerns and interfere in law enforcement probes into New Jersey businessmen.  Prosecutors allege they have found more than $480,000 of cash related to the bribes in Menendez’s home.  They are also aiming to have Menendez forfeit his assets such as his New Jersey home, a 2019 Mercedes-Benz, and roughly $566,000 in cash, and gold bars, from his bank account.  Menendez has said prosecutors mischaracterized routine legislative work and that the facts “are not as presented.”  The senator and his wife, alongside three businessmen involved in the case, are all expected to appear in Manhattan federal court on September 27 to face charges of conspiracy to commit bribery.  Senate Democratic rules require that members of the Senate who are charged with a felony must resign their leadership position but may reassume their position if found not guilty.  As a result, Menendez has stepped down from his chairmanship of the Foreign Relations Committee over the case.  Reuters Washington Post New York Times

Analysis: Nagorno-Karabakh Shows Russia’s Declining Influence.  Azerbaijan’s seizure of the ethnic-Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh has shown Russia’s faltering influence in the former Soviet area.  Russia had used the dispute over the region to maintain sway over both Yerevan and Baku, sending weapons and peacekeepers to the region and acting as the main mediator over the enclave.  Russian peacekeepers stationed in the region did not respond to the Azerbaijani takeover this week, failing to fulfill Russia’s security guarantees and promises in the region.  Analysts say Russia’s influence in and attention to Karabakh has significantly decreased because it has been distracted by its own invasion of Ukraine.  Russia is set to feel the most impact from the Karabakh crisis in Armenia, which hosts Russian military facilities, including an airbase.  Anti-Russian sentiments in Yerevan have surged this week, seen in protests by Armenians saying they feel betrayed by Russia’s failure to stop Azerbaijan.  Armenia had already been drifting from Russia, with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently holding joint military drills with the U.S. after saying it was a mistake to rely solely on Russia to safeguard his country’s security interests.  Kyiv Independent Reuters Wall Street Journal 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE:

On the Battlefield

Ukraine’s Military Confirms Attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet Headquarters.  The Strategic Communications Department of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (Stratcom) confirmed Ukraine “inflicted a successful hit” on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol this morning, marking Ukraine’s latest attack on Russian military infrastructure in Crimea.  Russian officials and state media reported a Ukrainian missile strike targeted the headquarters.  Oleksii Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, warned that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet must choose “voluntary or forced self-liquidation,” suggesting Ukraine will continue attacks on the fleet.  Mykola Oleshchunk, commander of Ukraine’s Air Force, likewise said increasing Ukrainian attacks on Russian military targets in Crimea are “to be continued.”  CNN Washington Post

Russia Reports Major Cyberattack on Crimean Internet Providers.  Internet services on the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula suffered an “unprecedented” cyberattack on Friday, according to local Russian-appointed officials. The attack has reportedly led to internet access issues for residents across the peninsula.  Russian-appointed officials said actions are being taken to resolve the issue. CNN

Top Ukrainian General Says Crimea Strikes Critical to Counteroffensive.  The commander of Ukraine’s military on the southern front, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, said strikes on Crimea are important to the Ukrainian counteroffensive.  He said in addition to destroying enemy capabilities on the front, it is also critical to hit “places of concentration of equipment, personnel and especially… command centers” to disorganize the enemy and disrupt its ability to coordinate actions.  Strikes on occupied Crimea are especially important since it hosts a high concentration of Russian air and ground assets as well as Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.  He added that such strikes help Ukrainian morale since they make Russian forces feel “hot in the rear” while also facing attacks on the front lines.  CNN

Russian Missile Strike Kills 1 in Central City of Kremenchuk.  A Russian missile strike on the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk killed one person and injured another 15 on Friday.  Dmytro Lunin, the head of the Poltava regional military administration, said Russia launched strikes on civilian infrastructure in the city and that Ukrainian air defenses managed to intercept one missile.  CNN

From Russia

Russia Planning Major Defense Spending Boost in 2024. Russia plans a huge hike in their defense spending by next year, rising from 3.9% of their gross domestic product in 2023, to 6% in 2024.  Moscow has doubled its defense spending in 2023 to more than $100 billion, as costs from the war in Ukraine continue to strain Moscow’s coffers.  Rising costs from the war are supporting Russia’s economic recovery this year with higher rates of industrial production.  But current defense spending, alongside falling export revenues, has pushed the deficit to around $24 billion.  Reuters

State of Play

Polish PM Warns Zelensky ‘Never to Insult Poles Again.’ Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday not to “insult” the Polish people again amid a feud over grain imports.  Last week, Poland decided to extend a ban on Ukrainian grain imports in an effort to protect local farmers.  Zelensky then criticized the action at the U.N. General Assembly, saying such “political theater” is helping Russia.  Warsaw and Kyiv have since said they are open to negotiations to settle the dispute.  Mateusz issued his warning at an election rally ahead of Poland’s parliamentary elections on October 15.  Meanwhile, Polish Foreign Minister Sbigniew Rau said that Poland still supports Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion and can do so while also protecting Polish citizens “against unfair economic competition.”  However, he noted “a radical change in Polish public opinion’s perception” of Ukraine, noting that repairing this perception will take a “titanic” diplomatic effort.  Reuters Politico

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN:

U.S. Finalizing Semiconductor Funding Regulation.  The U.S. Commerce Department is implementing final rules to prevent semiconductor manufacturing subsidies from going to China and other countries that the U.S. deems as national security threats.  The regulation is the last obstacle to tackle before the Biden administration can start to award the $39 billion in subsidies for semiconductor production under the “Chips and Science” law.  The regulation will set “guardrails” by limiting recipients of the funds from investing into semiconductor manufacturing in foreign countries of concern or engaging with research and licensing with entities of concern.  If any recipients do not comply with regulations, the Commerce Department will rescind federal awards.  Speaking to Congress on the regulation, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said on Tuesday that “we have to be absolutely vigilant that not a penny of this helps China to get ahead of us.”  Reuters U.S. Department of Commerce

Russia-Backed Hackers Seeking Information on Russian War Crimes.  Ukraine’s cyber defense chief says hackers employed by Russian intelligence agencies are increasingly targeting Ukrainian law enforcement networks to obtain evidence related to alleged Russian war crimes.  Yurii Shchyhol, the head of the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection of Ukraine (SSSCIP), said Ukraine has observed the shift in the focus of hackers away from energy facilities towards the Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office and departments documenting war crimes.  SSSCIP said the hackers are also trying to gather intelligence on Russian nationals arrested in Ukraine to help them “avoid prosecution and move them back to Russia.”  Russia’s Foreign Ministry, Federal Security Service (FSB) and GRU military intelligence agency did not comment on the matter.  Shchyhol’s comments on the war crimes-related hacking campaign came as the International Criminal Court, which handles war crimes cases, said it was suffering a cyberattack.  More widely Shchyhol said the number of cybersecurity incidents documented by SSSCIP increased by 123% in the first half of 2023 compared to the second half of 2022.   Reuters

Cyber Insurance Claims, Ransomware Attacks Surged in First Half of 2023.  Analysis from cyber insurance firm Coalition found an increase in the number of cyber insurance claims and a rise in damages from attacks in the first half of the year.  Claims were up 12% compare to last year through June.  Almost 1 in 5 cyber incidents involving claims were linked to ransomware, with Royal, BlackCat and LockBit 3.0 being the top three ransomware gangs involved.  Ransomware victims’ losses averaged to over $365,000 in the first half of this year, jumping from over $227,000 in the second half of 2022.  Claims for funds transfer fraud — when cybercriminals redirect an online money transfer to their own accounts — notably increased by 15% in the first half of 2023, with severity increasing 39% to an average loss of under $300,000.  This is still less than the peak of $410,000 in the first half of 2021.  The Record

India’s Lunar Lander Not Waking up. Indian space agency Isro says no signal has been received yet from its Vikram lunar lander and Pragyaan moon rover.  The lander touched down on the Moon’s lesser explored South Pole in August.  It has spent two weeks gathering data and images and went into a ‘sleep mode’ at lunar nightfall.  Isro hoped the lander would reawaken after having its batteries recharged by the Sun rising on Friday, but it has yet to do so.  Isro said it will continue efforts to communicate with the craft.  Experts have cited an example of a similar situation with China’s Chang’e 4 lander and Yutu 2 rover which did wake up several times with the sunrise.  Officials say reawakening is not guaranteed since extreme cold night temperatures could have damaged the lander’s batteries.  BBC 

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD:

U.S. Pledges New Haiti Aid.  The U.S. on Friday pledged $65 million in new aid for Haiti’s police force and urged the U.N. Security Council to formally support the deployment of a multinational security mission in the country.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the mission, which will be led by Kenya, could deploy “within months.”  Last year, Haiti asked for assistance to counter rampant gang violence, which has overrun the capital Port-au-Prince.  The U.N. Security Council will consider a U.S.-drafted resolution for the multinational police deployment as soon as next week.  The U.S. said it will not provide troops for the mission, but will pledge $100 million in logistical assistance, including airlifts, communications, and medical support.  The $65 million in new aid will serve to empower the Haitian police in the capital of Port-au-Prince to dismantle gangs.  Reuters U.S. Department of State

US Approves $500 Million Sale of Combat Vehicle Upkeep Support to Saudi Arabia. The U.S. State Department has approved a sale of repair parts for Saudi Arabia’s combat vehicles worth an estimated $500 million.  Saudi Arabia requested the parts to maintain the Royal Saudi Land Forces light armored vehicles and tanks, night vision devices, and radar.  The potential sale will be carried out by the Cooperative Logistics Supply Support Arrangement (CLSSA) program. The required parts would be drawn from the Department of Defense’s stocks.  The move is intended to boost Riyadh’s self-defense capabilities.  Defense News US DoD DSCA
Somalia Calls for Slower UN Peacekeeper Drawdown Due to ‘Significant Setbacks’.  Somalia has asked the U.N. to pause its drawdown of African Union peacekeepers in the country for three months following an al Shabaab militant attack that forced Somali forces to withdraw from several recently captured towns.  The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which is mandated by the U.N. Security Council, concluded the first phase of its drawdown of 2,000 troops in June and was set to withdraw 3,000 more personnel by the end of September, reducing it to a 14,626-strong force.  Somali officials said an attack by al Shabaab in the central Galgaduud region in late August caused “several significant setbacks,” stretching Somalia’s military thin and forcing it to reorganize.  Reuters France 24

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