5:20 PM ET, Friday, September 1, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
The Americas
U.S. Congressional Delegation Calls for Defense of Taiwan During Visit. A U.S. Congressional delegation visiting Taiwan said Friday that the U.S. would act if the island was attacked. Prior to a meeting with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-Wen, Vice Chair of the House Armed Services Committee Rob Whitman, who is leading the delegation, said “any hostile unprovoked attack on Taiwan” will be met by a “resolute reaction from the U.S.” He added that the U.S. has an “obligation” to fill its $19 billion backlog of arms sales to Taiwan, which he said has bipartisan support. U.S. law mandates that Washington provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself, but policy remains nebulous on whether or not Washington would commit forces to the island in response to an attack from China. The delegation’s visit comes after the Biden administration approved a military transfer to Taiwan under a program typically reserved for sovereign states. Associated Press Reuters
U.S. House Foreign Affairs Chair Warns of Russia-China Partnership. The chairman of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee, Representative Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican, said Friday that he is concerned about a partnership between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. He said an alliance between the two leaders poses “a very big challenge… for the free world” and argued that it poses a threat to Europe and the Pacific not seen since World War II. U.S. intelligence has said China has likely sent equipment to Russia that has military applications, which could be used towards Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. China has also rejected Western sanctions against Russia over the war and has stepped up purchases of Russian oil and gas since the start of the war. Associated Press
Western Europe
Denmark Caps Number of Russian Diplomats at Copenhagen Embassy. Denmark will only allow five Russian diplomats and 20 administrative staff to work at the Russian embassy in Copenhagen, matching the same number of embassy staff Russia has permitted at the Danish embassy in Moscow. The Danish foreign ministry said the Russian embassy has until September 29 to comply. The ministry added that the reduction came after “long-term negotiations” over visas for Danish embassy staff in Moscow have failed to yield results, in part because of “repeated” Russian visa requests for “Russian intelligence officers.” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said the move shows Denmark’s “hostile stance” to Moscow. The embassy cap announcement came as a Danish newspaper reported that a member of Russia’s GRU military intelligence agency was appointed as a diplomat in Copenhagen. Al Jazeera Associated Press
Central and Eastern Europe
Ukraine Says First Russian Lines Breached, U.S. Says ‘Notable Progress’ Made in Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine reported Friday that it has broken through the first lines of Russia’s defenses in several areas, but now faces even more heavily-fortified defenses. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said there is progress in the Zaporizhzhia region and that Ukrainian troops have run into further obstacles, including additional minefields and concrete fortifications. White House National Security spokesman John Kirby echoed Maliar’s remarks, saying that Washington has seen “notable progress” by Ukrainian forces in Zaporizhzhia over the last 72 hours and that it is up to Ukraine how to proceed. He also said Kyiv is “mindful that they’ve still got some tough fighting ahead” if it wants to continue southward. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba added in a CNN interview that Ukraine is “not falling” but “moving forward” in the counteroffensive, adding that Western partners know “things are moving in the right direction.” He also said those criticizing the pace of the counteroffensive should think of the Ukrainian troops on the ground in the “tough fight,” explaining that their sacrifices and victories are invalidated by those who say they moved too slow. Al Jazeera CNN Reuters
Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Says Russia Drone Strikes to ‘Increase’, Rejects Negotiations. Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said drone attacks in Russia will “increase” since the war has gotten to the point where “hostilities are gradually being transferred” to Russian territory. Drone strikes inside Russia have increased in recent weeks, including a major attack on an air base this week that destroyed four military transport planes. Ukraine has cheered these attacks but has never claimed responsibility for them. Separately, Podolyak also ruled out any negotiations with Russia, saying they would lead to the “capitulation” of Ukraine and the entire democratic world. He said he believed that Kyiv’s Western allies understood that “this war will no longer end in a compromise solution” and will only be resolved by “military means” with Western support. Al Jazeera Reuters
Russia Says New “Satan II” ICBM System Operational. Russia says its new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile system is now online. Roscosmos director general Yury Borisov announced the system “has been put on combat duty.” The Sarmat was due to go on combat duty at the end of 2022. It will replace Soviet-era Voevoda missiles, referred to by NATO as SS-18 “Satan.” As the SS-18’s successor, Sarmat has been nicknamed “Satan II.” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in April last year that the Sarmat could deliver multiple nuclear warheads as far as the continental U.S. Analysts at the time said the threat from the missiles is “extremely low” and suggested Putin’s high-level promotion of Sarmat may have been to distract from Russia’s military failures at the start of the Ukraine war. CNN
Russian-Led Alliance Holds Military Drills in Belarus. The Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CTSO) began military exercises on Friday in western Belarus near borders with NATO countries. Over 2,000 troops from Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan are participating. Armenia is also a CTSO member but did not send forces to participate. The Belarusian defense ministry said the drills are aimed at preparing for joint operations, including responses to a nuclear accident. The drills are taking place in Belarusian regions that border Poland and Lithuania. Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau said the drills are intended to destabilize the region. Ukraine’s Joint Forces commander General Serhii Naiev said Ukraine will strengthen its border with Belarus during the exercises. Associated Press Washington Post
Belarus Says Polish Military Helicopter Breached Airspace. The Belarusian Border Service claimed a Polish military Mi-24 helicopter breached Belarusian airspace on Friday. The agency published a video purportedly showing the incursion and alleged that the helicopter flew 4,000 feet into the Grodno region before turning back to Poland. The Belarusian foreign ministry added that it summoned the Polish charge d’affaires over the incident. Al Jazeera
Russia Allocating $20 Billion to Occupied Ukrainian Territories. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow will allocate 1.9 trillion rubles ($20 billion) from the federal budget over the next two and half years to develop areas it annexed in Ukraine. Russia unilaterally annexed Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia last year, though it does not fully control any of the regions. The West and Ukraine deemed the annexation “illegal.” Al Jazeera Reuters
Asia and Oceania
China Confirms Development of New Guided-Missile Frigate. China’s defense ministry confirmed it has launched a new guided-missile frigate, the Type 054B warship. The confirmation came in response to speculation on Chinese social media about a new warship after photos of a larger version of a Type 054A warship at the Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding docks in Shanghai circulated online. Other photos suggest a second Type 054B is being built at the Huangpu-Wenchong Shipyard in Guangzhou. The hull of the ship is estimated to be able to accommodate the Chinese navy’s Z-20 helicopters and drones. Photos also suggest it uses the same advanced phased array radar system as the Type 054A and the stealth mast and advanced sonar technology used on the Type 055 destroyer. South China Morning Post
China Likely Sent Real Guns to Solomon Islands, Not Replicas as Reported by U.S. China likely shipped real firearms to the Solomon Islands under the guise of a donation of “replica” weapons to the nation’s police force last year, according to a previously unseen U.S. diplomatic cable. Solomon Islands media raised fears in March of 2022 that the police had received illicit weapons shipments from China, sparking public outcry. Police later claimed that it received imitation firearms used for training purposes. The cable, written from the U.S. embassy in Papua New Guinea, said U.S. diplomats concluded that the firearms were indeed real and that the police officials were trying to “recategorize an illicit arms shipment as an authorized shipment of ‘replica’ firearms”. The cable also cited an unnamed source who raised alarm over the shipment “because the weapons appeared real in every way, including weight and mechanics.” This shipment and report come amid increased tensions as the Pacific Island nation navigates U.S.-China competition in the region. Al Jazeera
Japan Sanctions Suspected Supporters of North Korea’s Missile Program. Japan’s government announced Friday that it is sanctioning three different groups and four individuals for their suspected roles in supporting North Korea’s missile and nuclear weapons programs. The Japanese foreign ministry said the sanctions freeze the assets of three North Korea-based hacker groups linked to various cyber attacks and four individuals based in China. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said that the sanctions, in coordination with the United States and South Korea, are in response to North Korea’s failed launch of a spy satellite on August 24 and its firing of two missiles Wednesday. North Korea has failed twice to launch a spy satellite this year and is reportedly planning a third attempt this October. Associated Press
Taliban Says it Signed $6.5 Billion in Mining Contracts. The Taliban government in Afghanistan said it signed seven mining contracts Thursday totaling to approximately $6.5 billion, marking the biggest such round of deals since the Taliban took power two years ago. The seven contracts are reportedly with local companies, many of which have foreign partners in countries including China, Iran, and Turkey. The deals cover the extraction and processing of iron ore, lead, zinc and gold in the provinces of Herat, Ghor, Logar and Takhar. Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdul Ghani Baradar Akhund said that the deals will create thousands of jobs and improve Afghanistan's economic situation. Experts note that the figures for the deals may be misleading unless they lead to full mining operations, which could take years. Associated Press
Middle East and Northern Africa
Militants Kill Nine Soldiers in Northwest Syria. Militants from the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) insurgent group attacked an army position in northwest Syria on Friday, killing at least nine Syrian government soldiers. The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said one HTS fighter was killed in the attack. The attack came days after an attack by another al-Qaeda-linked group in the area killed at least 11 soldiers. Associated Press
Sub Saharan Africa
Russian Military Plane Lands in Central African Republic After Stop in Burkina Faso. A military plane that brought a Russian delegation to Burkina Faso on Thursday landed in Central African Republic (CAR) on Friday, according to flight tracking data. A security source confirmed the delegation arrived, though the purpose of the visit is not entirely clear. The CAR and Russian governments did not respond to requests for comment. The Burkinabe presidency said the Russia delegation met with interim President Ibrahim Traore to discuss potential military cooperation. Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries have operated in CAR since 2018, helping President Faustin Archange Touadera fight rebels. Wagner has control of a gold mine in CAR. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
Cybercrime to Cost Germany 206 Billion Euros in 2023. A survey of over 1,000 companies by German digital association Bitkom found that cybercrime, including the theft of IT equipment and data, as well as digital and industrial espionage and sabotage, will cost Germany 206 billion euros ($224 billion) in 2023. It will be the third consecutive year damages will surpass the 200 billion euro mark. Bitkom President Ralf Wintergerst said the high figure points to the German economy being “a highly attractive target for criminals and hostile states.” The survey noted that around three quarters of the companies surveyed suffered attacks in the last 12 months, falling from 84% of companies surveyed last year, which Wintergerst said was a “positive sign” that shows “protective measures are having an effect.” Around 70% of the companies that suffered attacks had sensitive data stolen, marking a 7% increase from last year, and 61% of companies said their digital communications were surveilled, up 4% from last year. Reuters
China Launches Plan to Explore Solar System’s Resources. Chinese space scientists proposed a preliminary road map for the exploration and extraction of space resources in the solar system through 2100. The plan includes building facilities to use water ice on the moon and other celestial bodies, including near-Earth asteroids, Mars, main-belt asteroids and Jupiter’s moons to form a resupply system spanning the solar system. Further infrastructure like transport routes and extraterrestrial mining and processing stations for large-scale, commercial operations. Deadlines between 2035 and 2100 for the development of technologies related to mining and processing of space resources, flight-based transport and low-cost resources return have been set. South China Morning Post
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