5:30 PM ET, Friday, October 20, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
ISRAEL HAMAS WAR
Israel Says Not Seeking Long-Term Control of Gaza. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant signaled on Friday that Israel is not planning to take long-term control of the Gaza Strip following an expected ground invasion aimed at Hamas. Speaking to lawmakers about plans for Gaza, Gallant outlined a three-stage plan for the territory. First, Israeli air strikes and “maneuvering,” likely referencing the ground offensive” will root out Hamas fighters. Then, a lower intensity fight will eliminate pockets of resistance. Finally, a new “security regime” will be set up in Gaza along with “the removal of Israel’s responsibility for life” in the territory. The last stage indicated that Israeli forces are not intending to reoccupy Gaza. Gallant did not specify what the security regime would look like or who Israel expects to run Gaza after Hamas is removed. Associated Press Financial Times Times of Israel Wall Street Journal
Hamas Releases Two American Hostages. Hamas released two hostages — a mother and her daughter who are both U.S. citizens — on Friday. A Hamas spokesperson said the pair were released following Qatari mediation efforts on “humanitarian grounds” and to prove that claims against the militant group are “false and baseless. “ The International Committee of the Red Cross said it transported the pair from Gaza to Israel. A Qatari foreign ministry spokesperson confirmed the release of the hostages, saying it was accomplished after “days” of communication and that dialogue on the release of other hostages will continue. President Joe Biden thanked Qatar and Israel for their roles in the release of the hostages. Hamas reportedly took over 200 people hostage in its attacks on Israel. The militant group said on Monday that it will release non-Israeli hostages “when circumstances on the ground allow.” The U.S. and European countries are reportedly urging Israel to delay its ground invasion of the Gaza Strip to allow for more time to free hostages being held by Hamas. Sources said Israel, which has vowed to both eliminate Hamas and free all hostages, agreed under U.S. pressure for an initial delay. (Editor’s note: Dr. Kenneth Dekleva, former Regional Medical Officer and Psychiatrist with the U.S. Department of State, wrote on the dynamics behind the next to impossible prospect of hostage negotiations with Hamas in The Cipher Brief. Read The Higher-Order Effects of Negotiating with Hamas in The Cipher Brief.) Bloomberg CNN Al Jazeera Reuters The Cipher Brief
Biden Says Stalled Aid to Reach Gaza Soon. President Joe Biden said on Friday that he believes the first 20 trucks of humanitarian aid will enter Gaza from Egypt through the Rafah crossing in the next 24 to 48 hours, though he noted that roads which have been damaged by Israeli airstrikes still need to be repaired. Biden said he received commitments from Israel and Egypt that Rafah will soon be opened. A U.N. spokesperson likewise said on Friday that the first aid deliveries will start “in the next day or so.” There are still remaining issues stalling the transfer of aid. For example, Israel says it wants to be involved in aid inspections and is against delivering fuel, while others say the U.N. should oversee inspections and that fuel is needed for generators at hospitals and to provide water for Palestinians in Gaza. Israel also wants aid to be delivered to southern Gaza, not northern Gaza, where Israeli forces are likely set to launch a ground invasion. Palestinians are also warning that Israeli air strikes must cease for the safe transfer of aid. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Friday that there are ongoing talks on how aid will be verified and how to establish a continuous flow of aid. CNN New York Times NPR Washington Post
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Around a Third of Humanitarian Aid for Ukrainian Military Never Received. The State Customs Service of Ukraine reports that around a third of the humanitarian aid intended for Ukrainian forces was never delivered after clearing customs this year. The agency said that audits show that since the start of 2023, there have been 3,000 cases in which military units did not confirm receipt of intended humanitarian aid goods. Employees of the agency also raised 320 protocols alleging violations of custom rules regarding humanitarian goods, and Customs also made 387 reports indicating possible criminal actions regarding illegal use of humanitarian aid for profit. Ukraine has been working to root out corruption in both government agencies and the military. As part of these efforts, at the start of December, the Ukrainian government will start electronic declarations and publishing of public reports on the distribution of humanitarian aid. Critics warn that the measure may slow down humanitarian aid deliveries. Kyiv Post
Ukraine Counteroffensive Sees Success in Crimea, Black Sea. Foreign Policy reports that focus on the marginal territorial breakthroughs of Ukraine’s counteroffensive has overshadowed the real battlefield successes Ukraine has had in Russian-occupied Crimea and the Black Sea. Ukrainian attacks — including air strikes, sea drone strikes, and raids by elite naval infantry commands — on Russian targets in Crimea, such as the Kerch Strait bridge and Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, have diminished Russia’s capabilities on the peninsula and the western Black Sea. Most notably, the attacks have forced Russia to move the bulk of its Black Sea Fleet from the Crimean port of Sevastopol further east to Novorossiysk, a port on the Russian mainland. British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey called this development “the functional defeat of the Black Sea Fleet.” This attrition and displacement marks progress in Ukraine’s goals of forcing Russia from the peninsula and complicating Russia’s ability to patrol waters near Ukrainian ports in the Odesa region. Foreign Policy
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Ukraine Says Remaining Strong Against Russian Cyber Attacks. Recorded Future’s Click Here podcast spoke with Illia Vitiuk, head of the cyber department at the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), about Russian cyber threats to Ukraine’s critical infrastructure networks. Vitiuk said Russia’s malicious cyber actions are continuing, reporting that his team responds to 12-15 serious cyberattack each day against Ukraine’s power systems, water and gas suppliers, internet providers, law enforcement agencies and telecommunications operators. Despite the challenges, he said “they failed in bringing serious and disastrous effects.” He noted that defense-forward operations with U.S. hunt teams before Russia’s invasion in February 2022 played a key role in identifying vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure systems. He also said that while Ukraine has had success in its cyber defenses, it is a “marathon” to counter Russian cyber activity “and they still have time.” The Record
Philippine Military Orders Personnel To Stop Using AI Apps Over Security Concerns. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. has ordered the countries 163,000 military personnel and other defense staff to cease using digital apps that use artificial intelligence to generate personal portraits. Teodoro specifically warned against the use of a digital application that requires users to submit at least 10 pictures of themselves to be used to make an AI generated “digital person” that mimics the user. He said such apps pose “significant privacy and security risks” since they could be used to create fake profiles for “identity theft, social engineering, phishing attacks” and other activities. The Philippine Department of National Defense on Friday confirmed the order, which was made in an October 14 memorandum. The department did not say what prompted the order. Associated Press
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Biden Meets E.U. Leaders in Washington. President Joe Biden and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel, and the E.U.’s top foreign policy official Josep Borrell in Washington on Friday. The summit was aimed at reviewing transatlantic partnership between the U.S. and the bloc. Talks also focused on the Israel-Hamas conflict and Russia’s war against Ukraine. Both sides also said they will continue talks on trade disputes, such as tariffs on steel and aluminum and energy subsidies. European Council Politico Reuters
Probe Into Damage to Undersea Infrastructure in Baltic Sea Focuses on Chinese Ship. An investigation into the damage to a gas pipeline and telecommunications cable between Finland and Estonia is currently focusing on the potential role of the Chinese NewNew Polar Bear container vessel. Estonian investigators said on Friday that the damage to the pipeline and cable was caused by people, but it is still unclear who was responsible and if it was deliberate. Finnish authorities say that the movements of the Chinese container vessel “coincide with the time and place” of the damage to the pipeline. Estonian officials said the investigation on the matter is now looking at both the NewNew Polar Bear and the Russian ship Sevmorput, which was also in the area at the estimated time of the damage. Estonian investigators highlighted that only these two ships were present near the pipeline and cable, as well as another telecommunications cable between Sweden and Estonia that was also damaged. Associated Press Reuters
China Considers Revision to State Secrets Law. China began the legislative process of revising its state secrets law on Friday for the first time in a decade amid rising tensions with the U.S. and its allies. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress is considering the revisions to the Law on Guarding State Secrets. Details remain unclear, but the revision is believed to be extensive and is expected to affirm the Communist Party’s authority in all information security matters and for the first time call for government support of the development of information security technologies. The move is expected to escalate concerns of foreign investors about conducting business in China. The President of the E.U. Chamber of Commerce in China has called for greater clarity to help businesses understand where the “red lines are”. South China Morning Post
French Military Withdrawal from Niger Half Complete. France is reportedly halfway done with the withdrawal of its 1,450 troops deployed in Niger. Niger military officials said on Friday that 282 troops have left and another convoy of around 400 soldiers will leave for Chad in the coming days. French General Eric Ozanne said the departure was “perfectly planned and prepared by the Niger authorities,” adding that he expected the same for future convoys. Niger’s military junta demanded French forces withdraw from the country. France said the pullout will be completed by the end of the year. Reuters
Brazil says France's Macron to Visit in 2024. French President Emmanuel Macron has accepted an invitation from Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to visit Brazil in the first half of 2024. The leaders of the two countries discussed the crisis in the Middle East over the phone, agreeing to continue to search for ways to promote peace in the region. This comes as France earlier this week voted for a Brazilian-drafted resolution at the U.N. Security Council calling for humanitarian aid pauses in the Israel-Hamas conflict to facilitate aid deliveries into Gaza. Reuters
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