5:30 PM ET, Friday, November 10, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:
THE TOP STORIES
India, U.S. to Jointly Produce Stryker Fighting Vehicles. India and the U.S. have agreed to jointly produce Stryker armored vehicles as part of efforts to counter China’s military expansion. The vehicles will be produced in India, underscoring U.S. trust to transfer advanced technology to New Delhi. The deal was announced after an annual two-plus-two meeting between U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in New Delhi. A joint statement issued after the meeting prominently mentioned joint development and production of defense equipment, especially “ground mobility systems,” and signaled there will be further projects in “priority areas.” Austin said the defense cooperation with bolster U.S. and Indian security by diversifying supply chains and increasing their militaries’ interoperability. An Indian official said most of the Stryker vehicles will be deployed along China’s disputed Himalayan border with China. Some will also be sent to the India-Pakistan border. The official added that thousands of vehicles will be armed with anti-tank missile systems, with the rest being used for battlefield surveillance or as command vehicles. Nikkei Asia Bloomberg DefenseOne Reuters
U.S. Diplomats Warn of Anti-American Sentiments in Arab World. U.S. diplomatic cables are warning of increased anti-American sentiments in Arab countries over Washington’s support for Israel amid its military campaign in Gaza. One cable from the U.S. Embassy in Oman warns the U.S. is “losing badly on the messaging battlespace” since U.S. support for Israeli actions is being seen “as material and moral culpability in what they consider to be possible war crimes.” Another cable from the U.S. embassy in Cairo highlighted commentary in a state-run Egyptian newspaper that said, “President Biden’s cruelty and disregard for Palestinians exceeded all previous U.S. presidents.” The U.S. has faced increased pressure both domestically and abroad over its backing for Israel. Arab states have pressed for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, which the U.S. has resisted, saying that it would allow Hamas to regroup and recover. CNN
ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR
Israel to Demand ‘Full Disarmament’ of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday that if Israel successfully eliminates Hamas from the Gaza Strip, it will demand the “full disarmament” of the territory with the Israeli military maintaining “total security control” to ensure there are no more threats in Gaza against Israel. His remarks came after saying earlier on Thursday that Israel does not seek to occupy or govern Gaza, but a “credible force” must be able to enter the territory to counter militant threats. Israel’s future role in a post-Hamas Gaza remains uncertain. Some analysts say Israel may seek a security relationship with Gaza similar to the West Bank structure, where Israel can exercise security control but Palestinians would oversee civil affairs. U.S. officials have called against an Israeli occupation of Gaza. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggested on Wednesday that there may be a “transition period” of an Israeli security presence in Gaza before a third party takes control. Washington Post Reuters
Israeli Forces Advance Near Gaza Hospitals. Israeli attacks continued around Gaza City’s hospitals on Friday. At least seven hospitals are reportedly under siege or close to fighting. Video footage appears to show Israeli forces overtaking front lines near hospitals. Palestinian officials say that Israeli air strikes hit three hospitals and a school on Friday, killing at least 27 people. The Al-Nasr, Al-Rantisi and International Eye Hospital have been evacuated following Israeli warnings to leave. Israel’s military said it laid out an evacuation route for those sheltering at the hospitals to take to leave the area. Gaza officials report that missiles landed in the courtyard of Al Shifa hospital, Gaza’s biggest hospital. Israel’s military has said that a misfired rocket launched by Palestinian militants in Gaza hit the hospital. Israel Defense Forces spokesperson Lt. Col. Richard Hecht said on Friday that Hamas was firing from hospitals and warned if Hamas militants are present,” then we will do what we need to do,” adding, “We’re aware of the sensitivity of the hospitals.” Hamas and doctors at the hospitals deny the claims of a Hamas presence. Washington Post Reuters
Saudi Arabia, African Countries Call for End of War in Gaza. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman on Friday called for an end to the war in Gaza and criticized Israel’s “military aggression” in the territory. He accused Israel of targeting civilians and violating international law in its attacks on Gaza and urged for the ending of the war and “forced displacement” of Palestinians. While Riyadh has criticized civilian casualties in Gaza, MbS’s comments mark his first public remarks on the issue. His comments came at the Saudi-Africa summit in Riyadh, where African leaders echoed his calls to end the war and fulfill a two-state solution. Reuters Washington Post Times of Israel
South Africa Summons Israeli Ambassador over Gaza Attacks. The South African foreign ministry on Friday said it called in Israel's ambassador to discuss Israel’s recent "unfortunate conduct" in Gaza. The ministry said it communicated the South African government’s concerns about the Israel-Hamas conflict to the Israeli envoy. South Africa recalled its diplomats from Israel this week to reassess its ties with the country amid rising civilian casualties in Gaza. South Africa has long supported Palestine, comparing its struggle to South Africa's own troubled history with apartheid. Israel has rejected such comparisons. Reuters
Egyptian President, Qatar Emir Meet to Discuss Gaza Conflict. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met with Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Ahmad Al Thani in Cairo on Friday to discuss how to de-escalate violence in the Gaza Strip, deliver humanitarian aid to the territory, and ensure the release of hostages held by Hamas. Sisi’s office said the two leaders focused on efforts for a ceasefire in Gaza and the safe delivery of aid to Palestinians there. Qatar said the two sides discussed "joint efforts to stop the aggression against Gaza, reduce escalation and bring in urgent humanitarian aid.” Three Egyptian security sources said that negotiations focused on securing a truce in areas of northern Gaza had made progress, but that no agreement had been reached on the number of hostages to be released by each side as part of any deal. The Qatari emir's trip to Egypt comes a day after Qatar's prime minister met with the chiefs of the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency and Israeli spy agency Mossad in Doha. They discussed the parameters of a deal for a hostage release and a potential pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas. Reuters Barron’s
THE UKRAINE UPDATE
Russia says it Repelled Ukrainian Attack on Dnipro River. Russia's military said on Friday that its forces had thwarted a Ukrainian attempt to forge a bridgehead on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River and on nearby islands. Russia’s defense ministry said the fighting occurred in the southern Kherson region and said “personnel from a motorized rifle company in the Russian military grouping 'Dnipro' under the command of Senior Lieutenant Zolto Arsalanov destroyed servicemen from a unit of Ukraine's 36th Marine Infantry brigade as they were trying to gain a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro River.” The ministry added that most attacking Ukrainian soldiers were killed while 11 were taken prisoner. Russians involved in the incident were reportedly given state awards by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. Reuters The Guardian
Russian Shelling, Drone Attacks Kill Three, Damage Infrastructure in Southern Ukraine. A Russian attack on Nikopol in the southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region killed one person and wounded another civilian. Governor Serhii Lysak confirmed the attack last night. Two kamikaze drones were reportedly used in the attack. Lysak said earlier in the day that Russian forces had used heavy artillery to attack the region around Nikopol overnight. Both kamikaze drones and artillery were used in that attack as well. Kyiv Independent
U.K. has Trained Over 30,000 Ukrainian Troops Under Operation Interflex. The U.K. Ministry of Defense says that it has trained over 30,000 Ukrainian recruits under the British-led Operation Interflex since June 2022. Interflex aimed to provide 30,000 Ukrainian volunteers with little to no military experience basic combat and survival skills by the end of 2023, meaning that the project is ahead of schedule. Ten other partner countries support Interflex, including Canada, New Zealand, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Australia, and, since November 10, Romania. Britain has trained a total of over 52,000 Ukrainian soldiers since 2014 under Interflex and its predecessor, Operation Orbital. Kyiv Independent U.K. Government
E.U. Says Unlikely to Meet Ammunition Pledge for Ukraine. The European External Action Service, the E.U.’s foreign policy arm, informed diplomats from member states that the bloc is very unlikely to meet its pledge to provide 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine by March 2024. The E.U. approved a plan in March to send the shells to Ukraine within a year. The ammunition would first be pulled from member states’ stocks, and then reimbursed, followed by joint purchase of new munitions. Bloomberg reported in October that the E.U. had only delivered 30% of planned supplies under the plan. Sources say that some member states have been reluctant to share information on their supply efforts, and the E.U. may push them to reveal details at an E.U. defense ministers’ meeting next week. Media reports and investigations have found that E.U. efforts to boost defense production for Ukraine has been stymied by bureaucracy and protectionism of individual countries. Bloomberg Kyiv Independent
E.U. Says U.A.E. to Curb Re-Export of Goods Used for Military Purposes to Russia. The European Commission told E.U. member states this week that the United Arab Emirates has agreed to restrict direct re-exports of sensitive goods used for military purposes to Russia. An U.A.E. official said the move restricts the export and re-export of identified dual-use products to conflict zones and expands a legal framework to monitor such exports. The Commission reportedly briefed E.U. ambassadors on the development this week. Turkey is reportedly considering a similar measure, according to sources. Despite Western sanctions against Russia amid the Ukraine war, Moscow has continued to have access to dual-use and other sensitive goods through third countries. Bloomberg Reuters Kyiv Independent
Canada Sanctions Russian Propagandists. Canada’s Foreign Ministry said on Friday that it is sanctioning nine individuals and six entities that make up a network that promotes propaganda aimed at justifying and legitimizing Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Individuals targeted include Russian political scientists and historians, as well as a Russian singer and her husband, who headed a now-banned pro-Russian party in Moldova. Targeted entities include several newspapers. Kyiv Independent
THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN
Boeing Data Published by Lockbit. The cybercrime gang Lockbit leaked 50GB of internal data allegedly stolen from defense and space contractor Boeing on Friday. Lockbit claimed in October that it stole “a tremendous amount” of sensitive data from the aerospace giant and threatened to publish it online if Boeing did not pay a ransom by November 2. Boeing confirmed that “elements” of its parts and distribution business were impacted by a cybersecurity incident and acknowledged claims from a “criminal ransomware actor” that it released information from its systems. Boeing said it is working with authorities to investigate the incident and that it “remains confident” that aircraft or flight safety has not been impacted, though the company did not say whether defense or sensitive data had been stolen. The leak of alleged Boeing data came after a ransomware attack against the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China’s U.S. arm, which experts believe Lockbit may have been behind. Bloomberg Cybernews Reuters
Washington State Department of Transportation Hit by Cyberattack. Washington State’s Department of Transportation is recovering from a cyberattack. The department first experienced a “security incident” on Tuesday that downed its website, cameras and app. The attack has impacted travel maps, traffic cameras, ferry vessel video feeds, mountain pass reports, online freight permits, and other travel-related information. By Thursday, some of the department’s website was restored, but other apps and services are still down. The department said it is investigating the incident but did not say if the disruption was caused by a cyberattack. The Record
LinkedIn says Spy Firm Used Platform to Target Hungarian Activists, Journalists. LinkedIn on Thursday said that private spy firm Black Cube launched a hidden video campaign on the professional networking site to target Hungarian activists and journalists ahead of the country’s 2022 election. At least 12 activists and journalists were targeted in the campaign starting in 2020. A researcher from LinkedIn said Black Cube created a network of fake profiles that posted fake job postings to connect with targets on the platform. Off-platform conversations with those targets were then used to discredit NGOs in Hungary. The researcher said that LinkedIn took down fake Black Cube-run LinkedIn accounts and the spy firm’s company page “given the high volume of abuse and clear violation of our terms of service.” LinkedIn did not say who Black Cube may have been working for. Black Cube and the Hungarian government did not immediately comment on the matter. Black Cube had previously been accused of interfering with Hungary’s 2018 elections using similar tactics of secretly filming targets. Reuters
ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD
Asia and Oceania
Top U.S. General Optimistic on China Military Communications, Casts Doubt on Xi’s Interest in Invading Taiwan. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Charles Brown said he is optimistic about an improvement in Sino-U.S. military-to-military ties and that he has sent an introductory letter to his Chinese counterpart — General Liu Zhenli, Chief of the Joint Staff Department of the Central Military Commission (CMC) — in which he said he is open to meeting. Brown’s comments came during a visit to Japan ahead of expected talks between President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week in San Francisco, which Brown said offers an “opportunity” to further military communications. Military dialogue between China and the U.S. has greatly suffered amid heightened tensions. High-level talks did not occur while General Li Shangfu was China’s defense minister since he was sanctioned by the U.S. for previous work in securing an arms deal with Russia. Li was dismissed from his position last month. Liu, who is not under Western sanctions, is a top contender to be China’s next defense minister. Brown acknowledged corruption in the Chinese military when discussing the ousting of Li, but he said that it was in line with Xi’s ongoing efforts to “consolidate power.” Separately, Brown also said he does not believe Chinese President Xi Jinping necessarily wants to take control of Taiwan by force due to the military difficulty of such a major amphibious campaign. Reuters New York Times Financial Times
China, Vietnam Hold Friendly Talks on Bilateral Ties. China said its vice foreign minister held friendly talks with his Vietnamese counterpart in Hanoi on Thursday regarding bilateral ties, land borders and maritime issues. The meeting between Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong and Vietnam's Deputy Foreign Minister Nguyen Minh Vu had not been previously announced by Beijing. China’s foreign ministry said the two officials made progress towards the opening of border crossings and infrastructure connectivity. The ministry also said that they agreed to try to make the Sino-Vietnamese land border a border of "permanent peace" and "intergenerational friendship and prosperous development.” Both sides also affirmed joint efforts to manage maritime tensions. Reuters
Europe
Scholz Pledges to Bolster German Military Spending. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz pledged to “guarantee” Germany will meet NATO spending targets through the 2030s and expand its military capabilities to become a “central hub” of NATO in Europe. Despite this promise, he acknowledged the “great political task” of increasing defense spending, acknowledging the difficulty of planning procurement and signing defense contracts due to uncertainty on long-term spending plans. In the short-term, Scholz’s government is meeting the defense pledges, in part because of an emergency 100 billion euro “special fund” for military spending that was launched days after the start of the Ukraine war. Two thirds of the fund will likely be allocated by the end of this year, enabling Germany to meet NATO’s goal of spending at least 2% GDP on defense spending for the first time in decades in 2024 and 2025. However, the fund is set to be exhausted soon after. Observers say Scholz may answer long-term defense spending plans by writing new German legislation on the 2 percent benchmark. Scholz also highlighted major military projects — the MGCS program for a new generation of tanks, and the FCAS program for next-gen fighter aircraft — as key focuses. Bloomberg Financial Times
Finland Says Hong Kong Ship’s Anchor Likely Caused Baltic Sea Infrastructure Damage. Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation said on Friday that damage to the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia was most likely caused by the dropping of an anchor from a Hong Kong-registered shipping vessel. While investigations are still incomplete, Finnish authorities say they are focusing on the vessel Newnew Polar Bear, which police have said likely dropped its anchor and dragged it along the seafloor, causing the damage to the pipeline. Authorities did not say if the damage was accidental or intentional and added that they have contacted Chinese authorities for “legal assistance.” The damage to the pipeline comes amid heightened tensions with Russia in the Baltic Sea amid its war in Ukraine. Kyiv Independent
Latvia’s Former Interior Minister Jailed on pro-Russia Spying Charges. A court in the Latvian capital Riga sentenced Janis Adamsons, Latvia's former interior minister, and a Russian accomplice to jail for spying for Moscow. Adamsons was accused of collecting secret and unclassified information to illegally send to Russian secret services. He reportedly sent information to Russia for four years before being detained on suspicion of espionage in spring of 2021. Prosecutors said Adamsons likely sent the information to Russia for “ideological” reasons rather than for money. He was accused of espionage, fraud, and acquiring and storing firearms and ammunition without permission and sentenced to eight-and-a-half years in jail. The second defendant, Russian citizen Gennady Silonov, was also found guilty and sentenced to seven years in prison. Both defendants have pleaded not guilty. Adamsons was Latvia’s Interior Minister between 1994-1995 and served as a lawmaker for six parliament terms before he was arrested in 2021. Kyiv Independent France24 Barron’s
The data cutoff for this product was 4:00p.m. E.T.
Ethan Masucol and Ryan Simons contributed to this report.
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