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3:30 PM ET, Friday, December 8, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines:  

THE TOP STORIES

Cameron, Blinken say they discussed 'vital' US air base in Diego Garcia.  British Foreign Secretary David Cameron and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly discussed the “vital” joint U.S.-U.K. airbase on the Diego Garcia island in the Indian ocean on Thursday. The base remains under British control as part of the British Indian Ocean territory in the Chagos Islands, despite a U.N. General Assembly vote in 2019 that says the islands should be returned to Mauritius. At a joint news conference, Cameron did not respond when asked about a report from Britain’s Daily Telegraph published earlier this month that  said British Defense Minister Grant Shapps wanted the U.K. to abandon plans to hand back the islands. Blinken said that the base plays a vital role for global security and for the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region. He added that the U.S. continues to recognize U.K sovereignty over the island and that the territorial dispute is something that should be discussed between Britain and Mauritius. Britain has maintained control over the region  since 1814, when the Chagos islands were detached from a newly independent Mauritius in 1965 to create the British Indian Ocean Territory.  Reuters 

US embassy in Baghdad targeted in Mortar attack.  A U.S. military official reported that approximately seven mortar rounds hit the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad around 4:00 am Friday in what appears to be the largest attack against the embassy in recent history. The attack also marked the first time the embassy had been fired on in more than a year, appearing to widen the spectrum of targets after dozens of attacks against military bases holding U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack but recent attacks on U.S. installations have been carried out by Iranian-backed militias in response to Washington’s support for Israel in its war against Hamas. An anonymous U.S. official left open the possibility that more projectiles were fired at the embassy but did not land within the compound. They added that there was minor damage and no injuries. The military official also said that the Ain al-Asad air base had also been targeted but projectiles did not land within the base. A senior official within Hezbollah said in a sermon Friday that attacks by Iran-backed groups aim to apply pressure for a halt in Israel’s offensive in the Gaza strip but did not refer specifically to the Friday embassy attack.  Reuters 

Putin officially confirms he is running for President in 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that he will seek to stay in the Kremlin for at least another six years. Putin made the televised announcement during a ceremony in which Putin pinned the gold star "Hero of Russia" medals on the lapels of soldiers who had fought in Ukraine. A soldier in the crowd reportedly asked Putin to run for office again, saying "You are our president, we are your team. We need you. Russia needs you." Putin replied, "I will not hide that I have had different thoughts at different times but it is now time to make a decision. I will run for the post of president," Putin said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who has said in the past that he hopes Putin would run again, said the announcement was spontaneous and the scene had not been pre-prepared. Putin's announcement, surrounded by decorated soldiers and mothers of fallen soldiers, are possible indicators of how he means to present himself going forward, and some Kremlin watchers note that it may provide hints about the future of the Ukraine war. "Putin is going to the polls as a military leader of a country at war," said Sergei Markov, a former Kremlin adviser. Reuters  Al Jazeera

ANALYSIS- Biden’s Foreign-Policy Legacy Is Now Intertwined With Border Crisis.  U.S. President Joe Biden’s foreign policy legacy is beginning to hang in the balance as the U.S. southern border crisis has diverted attention and tied up potential Ukrainian military aid packages. Lawmakers returned to negotiations Thursday after Senate Republicans blocked a Democrat-backed $110.5 billion emergency foreign aid measure, saying that the package needed to include significant changes to border policies. The potential package would have sent funding to Ukraine, Israel, and the Indo-Pacific. Republicans have since introduced a counter-offer. The outcome of foreign aid negotiations could have widespread consequences. U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine are on the line and migrants on the southern border could face tougher restrictions. The political stakes are also extremely high for Biden who is seeking reelection in what is expected to be an extremely close race. Failure to find compromise would damage what Biden hoped would be the defining foreign policy achievements such as establishing unparalleled unity among allies and supplying joint aid to Ukraine for nearly two years. Talks on border policy offer both an opportunity to mend a particularly vexing issue but risks alienating some in the Democratic base.  Wall Street Journal

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

U.S. alarmed as Israel ramps up Gaza strikes. Israel has reportedly drastically increased strikes on the Gaza Strip, in a new expanded phase of the war that Washington says is veering away from Israeli promises to do more to protect civilians. The Israeli military said on Friday it had struck more than 450 targets in Gaza from land, sea and air over the past 24 hours. There has been a marked increase in violence since a truce with Hamas collapsed last week and there have been double the daily figures typically reported since. There have been reports of intensified fighting in the northern area of Gaza from both residents and the Israeli military. Israel had previously said its troops had mostly completed their tasks last month. Israel also mounted a new assault this week in the south. Israel's military reported 94 Israeli soldiers had been killed fighting in Gaza since the ground invasion. Gaza's health ministry says the death toll from Israel's campaign in Gaza had risen to 17,487 deaths. Strikes were reported on Friday morning in Khan Younis in the south, the Nusseirat camp in the centre and Gaza City in the north. Reuters

Hamas says it repelled Israeli rescue attempt in Gaza, hostage killed. Hamas fighters claim to have foiled an attempt by Israeli special forces to rescue hostages in the Gaza Strip that wounded several soldiers, and left a captive Israeli soldier dead according to a statement on the group’s Telegram channel.  Hamas claims that the captive Israeli soldier who was killed was 25-year-old Sa’ar Baruch. Media reports confirm that Baruch was listed on an Israeli list of captured hostages.  Israeli government spokesperson Eylon Levy said Hamas is held responsible for the “safety and wellbeing” of its hostages and declined to comment on what he called the “psychological warfare” that Hamas wages against the people of Israel. Reuters 

Houthis are Iran’s Chosen Proxy to Escalate Fight War Israel. The New York Times is out with a lengthy new analysis, citing sources close to the Iranian government, that confirms that the Houthis are Tehran’s chosen proxy group to use to try and influence Israel’s war against Gaza.  Citing two anonymous Iranian officials with reportedly close ties to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the report says that Tehran views the Houthis as the best group to use, given their relative safe haven from their base in Yemen, and their lack of political accountability as compared to Hezbollah.  Israeli officials say that the threat from the Houthi’s is serious enough that a new Israeli intelligence unit has been created to focus specifically on the group.  And the U.S., while exercising restraint in its response to an escalating number of threats and attacks by the group, including on commercial vessels in the strategic Red Sea, has signaled that it may consider stronger military response options if the attacks continue.  U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor Jon Finer, speaking at an event in DC this week, says that “We have certainly not ruled out the possibility of taking military action..”, but that for now the U.S. focus is on a maritime security coalition to ensure the safety of commercial maritime vessels in the region.  NY Times Bloomberg 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukrainian troops train in Poland for harsh winter warfare. Ukrainian soldiers are being trained by the E.U. 's Combined Arms Training Command, which consists of soldiers from Poland, France, and Belgium, in western Poland to prepare for the demanding winter season to come. Those attending the training programs are largely made up of individuals with little to no prior military experience.  Exercises which include trench warfare training and urban combat have reportedly been held in 24 out of the bloc’s 27 member states. The training Ukrainian troops are receiving in Poland will help soldiers succeed under demanding conditions and improve chances for Ukrainian progress on the counteroffensive as the war moves to a new stage of “static and attritional fighting.” Reuters 

Germany delivers more ammunition, drones, and other equipment in the latest delivery to Ukraine. Germany delivered its latest military aid package to Ukraine on Friday, including vehicles, drones, artillery shells, and other equipment. Among the items were reconnaissance drones, border protection vehicles, 100,000 first aid kits, automatic grenade launchers, and additional 155mm artillery shells. The U.S. still remains Ukraine's largest military contributor, with a total volume of over $47 billion. However, Germany has provided around $18 billion in military aid for Ukraine. A study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that international aid for Ukraine between August and October had dropped to its lowest levels since January 2022, before the invasion of Ukraine began. The U.S. Senate recently voted against a funding bill that contained $61 billion in aid for Ukraine. In more recent news however, the U.S. announced a $175 million defense aid package for Ukraine from previously directed drawdowns. Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed that it would be one of the last military aid packages to Ukraine if Congress fails to pass any additional funding for the country. Kyiv Independent

Odesa man identified and arrested for spying for Russia. ​​The Regional Prosecutor’s Office arrested an Odesa local for treason who was accused of spying for Russia. The individual was allegedly recruited by Russia in October 2023 and promised $5,500 per month to photograph the locations of Ukrainian troops, defense and energy infrastructure, and strikes in the oblast. Molotov cocktails that were to be used against mass gatherings of civilians were also found upon arrest. The individual faces life in prison if convicted. Kyiv Independent 

Finnish court releases suspected Russian terrorist, rules he cannot be extradited to Ukraine.​​ A Finnish court released Yan Petroysky, a Russian-Norwegian co-leader of the Russian neo-Nazi paramilitary group the Ruisch, from custody and ruled that he could not be extradited to Ukraine.  Finland says that extradition to Ukraine was not approved since Ukrainian prisons do not meet standards set by the European Convention on Human Rights. Petroysky was arrested in Finland after trying to fly to France in July under the alias Voislay Torden. The Ukrainian extradition request was issued to prevent Petroysky’s return to Russia after he collaborated with the Russian-installed proxy government in Luhansk Oblast and the Rusich to aid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine asserts that Russian prisoners of war are treated in accordance with the Geneva Convention. Kyiv Independent 

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Ally-friendly ‘Buy American’ requirement makes it into NDAA.  The latest version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) unveiled on Wednesday includes a requirement that more U.S. military equipment be made in America.  The move, considered a political win for President Joe Biden, is set to codify into law a 2021 Executive Order from Biden that sought to increase the percentage of U.S. made equipment for the Pentagon.  The language in the bill was supported by major U.S. unions, and a carve-out provision for some allied countries resulted in a neutral position by potential non supporters representing allied defense industry groups.  Politico 

Putin's economic challenges are many but surmountable as election looms. Russia's success in evading a Western oil price cap is aiding a recovery in Russian economic growth despite the problems caused by labor shortages, inflation, and high interest rates.  This reportedly comes as President Vladimir Putin prepares to run for re-election in 2024. Russia’s $2.2-trillion economy has been able to navigate sanctions better than the West expected for the export-focused country. Despite intensive western efforts to target Russia’s energy sector with sanctions, Moscow has protected its oil industry by redirecting their exports to places like China, India, and has used so-called shadow fleets to get around the West’s oil price cap. Putn’s current key domestic challenges will be tackling a labor shortage, brought on by Russia’s military mobilization last year combined with high inflation which is affecting Russians purchasing power. So far, oil prices have been the most essential element of keeping the Russian economy afloat. Reuters

China and EU leaders agree on the need for 'balanced' trade ties. China and the European Union (EU) agreed that their trade relationship should be more balanced, following the first in-person summit between the two sides in four years. However, there is still no sign of resolving differences on a variety of issues, with EU leaders saying Europe would not tolerate "unfair competition" from China. Beijing also warned the EU that it expected prudence from Brussels when introducing "restrictive" trade policies. There was no indication that the EU had persuaded China to use its influence on Russia to persuade Russian leadership to end the Ukraine war. The war in Ukraine has been a source of tension in EU-China ties. The EU is pressing China to stop helping Moscow get around sanctions over the war. European Council President Ursula von der Leyen said the both parties discussed root causes of their trade imbalance. These causes range from a lack of access to the Chinese market, to overcapacities in Chinese production. Reuters

Russia’s Former EU Envoy to Head Wagner Operations In The Central African Republic.  A new report from Radio Free Europe says that a former Russian diplomat, believed to have links to Russian intelligence, has been sent to the Central African Republic (CAR) to oversee Wagner Group operations.  The move comes amid a turbulent period for Wagner, following the death of Yevgeny Prighozin earlier this year.  The report names Denis Pavlov, described as a ‘secretive Russian diplomat’ who was until recently the Kremlin’s envoy to the EU, as the individual tapped by Moscow to maintain Russia’s influence in Africa following the death of Prigozhin.  The report cites multiple local sources and photographs that confirm Pavlov's presence in CAR.  RFEL

Turkey says Canada, US linking drone-camera exports to Sweden NATO membership. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said Canada and the United States were insisting that Ankara ratify Sweden's NATO membership bid before Canada resumes the export of drone cameras to Turkey. Erdogan made the claims while speaking with reporters on a flight from Athens where he confirmed that the United States had agreed with Canada on the issue, and that Sweden's NATO bid will be decided by Turkey's parliament. Erdogan sent the bill to the Turkish parliament for consideration in late October, prompting Canada to quietly agree to re-open talks with Turkey on lifting export controls on drone parts in July. "On the issue of drone cameras we wanted from them, Canada is insisting: Sweden, Sweden. The U.S. is repeating the same thing," Erdogan said. Reuters

Some Russian and Belarusian athletes can compete as neutrals at Paris 2024 if they meet eligibility requirements. The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has announced that individual Russian and Belarusian athletes who have qualified through the International Federation for their respective sport will be eligible to compete in Paris 2024 as neutral athletes following the decision in February 2022 to ban Russian and Belarusian athletes from most international competitions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Athletes who hold a Russian or Belarusian passport, do not actively support the Russia-Ukraine war, and are not contracted to their country’s military services will be eligible to compete in Paris 2023. The IOC also states “no flag, anthem, colors, or any other identifications” will be displayed in Paris 2024 in any official Olympic “venue” or “function.” Of the 4,600 athletes who have already qualified, only 11 hold either a Russian or Belarusian passport. CNN  Al Jazeera 

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

U.K., U.S. Sanction Two Russians Accused Of Cyber Espionage on Behalf of Russia.  The British Foreign Office and the U.S. Treasury Department announced new sanctions on two Russian individuals for their connections to cybercriminals reportedly sponsored by Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB).  Britain and the U.S. say that the group has targeted people and organizations in their two countries, along with other nations.  The U.S. also announced a criminal indictment on the two individuals, charging them with attempting to hack into U.S. computer networks on behalf of the Russian government.  The two men are presumed to be in Russia. RFEL Deutsche Welle 

China rejects spying concerns from Costa Rica leader over 5G.  China forcefully rejected concerns over cyber security and potential spying on Thursday after Costa Rica’s president explained why Huawei is ineligible to establish 5G mobile networks in the country. In a statement, the Chinese Embassy said that the President’s claims were  baseless and could undermine the economic relationship between the two countries. On Wednesday, Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves said that his focus was to ensure national security and highlighted that China’s government forces Chinese firms to provide it with all information requested. “The country where Huawei is based doesn't have a solid judicial framework that prevents spying,” Chaves told reporters. Earlier this year Chaves signed a decree banning firms from 5G development if they are based in countries that have not agreed to an international cybercrimes convention. Reuters 

Pentagon’s Hackathon at Indo-Pacific Command’s new Hawaiian AI lab open to all US citizens. The U.S. The Department of Defense announced Thursday that its BRAVO hackathon will be hosted in Hawaii early next year and that it will be open to participation from all U.S. citizens who apply. The “multi-classification” event is scheduled to take place February 5-9 in Oahu, where U.S. Indo-Pacific command (INDOPACOM) is headquartered. A DOD press release said that the hackathon is seeking to produce solutions for INDOPACOM by utilizing operational theater data in an environment that permits the co-mingling of classified and protected data with untrusted open source or commercial software. A website has since been set up where people will be able to apply to participate in one of three separate roles: a hacker, subject matter expert, or supporter.  Defense Scoop

Schumer calls for U.S. to maintain competitive edge with China in AI development.  Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Wednesday that as the U.S. advances artificial intelligence as a facet of national security, staying competitive with China must remain a top priority. Schumer noted at a press conference that China is the only country that “would compete” with the U.S. in the realm of AI. This comes as the White House’s recent AI executive order calls for the Department of Defense and all other federal agencies to play a role in protecting national security in the race to innovate. Senator Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), noted how other agencies could play a role by highlighting how the Department of Energy’s work on nuclear weapons provides “real capabilities in laboratories that can be used for defensive purposes as well”.  Fedscoop LD

The data cutoff for this product was 3:00p.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Leighton Durham, Tiffany Krueger and Ryan Simons contributed to this report. 

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