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4:00 PM ET, Friday, December 22, 2023

Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world. 

Here’s what’s happening now:

THE TOP STORIES

U.N. Security Council votes to boost aid to Gaza after U.S. abstains.  The U.N. Security Council on Friday adopted a resolution calling for increased aid deliveries into Gaza but stopped short of calling for an immediate ceasefire in the enclave.  The council delayed the vote on the resolution for days for intense negotiations to avoid a U.S. veto.  The U.S. abstained from the vote, allowing the council to adopt the resolution.  Russia also abstained, saying that it favored an initial draft that called for “an urgent and sustainable cessation of hostilities” to boost aid access.  All remaining council members voted in favor.  The resolution called for “urgent steps” to expand humanitarian access and “creating the conditions for a sustainable cessation of hostilities.”  The resolution also did not establish a U.N. monitoring mechanism to oversee aid deliveries into Gaza, but called for the appointment of a “senior humanitarian and reconstruction coordinator” to monitor aid deliveries.  The coordinator is tasked with expeditiously establishing a “mechanism” to accelerate aid deliveries.  The U.S. had opposed the proposal for a U.N. monitoring mechanism, arguing that it could slow down aid deliveries.  Israel continues airstrikes and ground operations in Gaza as it seeks to eliminate Hamas.  Israeli forces have ordered residents of Al-Bureij in central Gaza to flee south, signaling a new focus of the ground assault.  Gaza's health ministry reports 20,057 Palestinians killed and 53,320 wounded since October 7.  Israel maintains it takes precautions to minimize civilian casualties and has blamed Hamas for operating in populated areas.  Associated Press CNN Reuters Reuters

Russia threatens U.S. with rupture of diplomatic ties over asset seizures.  Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned that Russia might sever diplomatic ties with the U.S. if Washington confiscates Russian assets frozen due to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Ryabkov emphasized that the U.S. should not assume that Russia is eager to maintain diplomatic relations, given the strained ties resulting from U.S. military and financial aid to Ukraine in the ongoing conflict. While Ryabkov stated that Russia wouldn't be the one to initiate a diplomatic break, various factors, including asset confiscation and military escalation, could trigger such a rupture. Some Western officials have proposed transferring approximately $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine's post-war recovery.  Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov cautioned that seizing Russian assets would adversely impact the global financial system. In response to Western sanctions, Russia has retaliated, recently stripping European concerns Wintershall Dea and OMV of substantial stakes in Arctic gas projects.  Reuters Al Jazeera 

Iranian spy ship supporting Houthi attacks on Red Sea vessels.  Western and regional security officials say that an surveillance ship controlled by Iran's paramilitary forces is providing real-time intelligence to Yemen's Houthis, aiding them in directing drones and missiles to target ships in the Red Sea.  The surveillance vessel reportedly gathers tracking information on ships and passes it on to the Houthis, enabling them to launch attacks on commercial vessels passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.  Western security officials suggest that the Houthis lack radar technology and require Iranian assistance for accurate targeting.  This development escalates tensions and points to possible regional escalation of the Israel-Hamas war.  Wall Street Journal

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

US intelligence says Hamas’ influence growing since its attack on Israel.  The latest intelligence assessments from U.S. agencies suggest that Hamas has seen a significant increase in credibility and influence since the October 7 terror attack and Israel's subsequent military response. Despite being designated as a terrorist group, Hamas has successfully portrayed itself as a defender of the Palestinian cause, gaining support in some Arab and Muslim communities. The group's success in its October attack on Israel, resulting in civilian casualties, has contributed to its growing popularity. Additionally, Hamas has garnered credit for negotiating the release of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. The U.S. government is concerned about the potential impact of Hamas' increased influence, both regionally and globally, and its potential to inspire terrorist activities. The assessments highlight the challenges of Israel's goal to "eradicate" Hamas and the complex dynamics in the ongoing conflict.  CNN

Ships rerouted by Houthi attacks face overwhelmed and ill-equipped African ports.  Shipping companies opting for the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope to avoid Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are facing challenges in refueling and restocking at African ports. The rerouting, prompted by Houthi drone and missile attacks disrupting trade through the Suez Canal, adds 10-14 days to travel. Moreover, there are major issues with ports along the Cape route.  South Africa’s ports are among the worst-performing globally with issues like red tape, congestion, and poor facilities.  Alternatives along the Cape route like Mombasa in Kenya and Dar es Salaam in Tanzania lack necessary infrastructure.  Bureaucracy and weather conditions on the Cape route are additional concerns for shipping companies. Global shipping company Maersk added that its ships will attempt to refuel at their final destinations as much as possible, but suggests options like Walvis Bay (Namibia) or Port Louis (Mauritius) for refueling during the extended journey may be necessary. Increased demand for marine fuel in South Africa is anticipated due to the rerouting, with imports expected to reach a record high in December.  Reuters

China appears to not be interested in supporting Red Sea naval task force.  The Chinese government appears to be dismissing calls from the U.S. to support the international naval coalition tasked with protecting commercial shipping in the Red Sea from attacks by Yemen’s Houthis.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reportedly raised concerns about the attacks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi earlier this month in a phone call.  A U.S. State Department spokesperson also said on Tuesday that the U.S. is interested in China’s assistance to police the area, saying that disruptions to trade in the region would hurt Beijing too.  A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said on Thursday that Beijing believes that “major countries with influence” need to play a constructive role in keeping commercial lanes safe in the Red Sea, likely referring to the substantial U.S. military and diplomatic strength in the region and suggesting that the U.S. and its allies can muster a naval force in the area quicker than China can. The spokesperson did not say if China would leverage its relationship with Iran to put an end to the Houthi attacks.  The comments by the Chinese Foreign Ministry reflect a more passive stance towards addressing the Red Sea attacks and wider Israel-Hamas conflict.  A Houthi spokesperson said on Tuesday that the attacks would continue despite the establishment of the naval force.  Politico 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Netherlands announces intent to deliver 18 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine.  The Netherlands will provide 18 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to support its efforts against Russia's invasion, according to the Dutch government.  Prime Minister Mark Rutte informed Ukrainian President Zelenskiy of the decision, stating that the delivery of F-16s is a crucial element of military support agreements with Ukraine. The actual delivery is contingent on obtaining an export permit from the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and meeting specified criteria for staff and infrastructure in Ukraine. The announcement allows for the allocation of funds and resources to prepare the planes for delivery. Other countries, including Denmark, Norway, and Belgium, have also pledged F-16s to Ukraine following U.S. government approval.  Reuters Associated Press

Zelensky meets Polish foreign minister in effort to deescalate tensions.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy met with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski on Friday in an effort to open a “new page” in their countries’ relations. Sikorski was appointed by the newly elected and pro-european Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. In recent months, tensions between the Kyiv and Warsaw have risen due to blockades by Polish truckers and farmers at border checkpoints protesting the EU’s lack of regulations for Ukrainian truckers.  As of Friday morning, 3,900 trucks were waiting in line to enter Ukraine from Poland, according to a Border Guard Service spokesperson. After their meeting, Sikorski said that the final details of an agreement between the two countries to unblock the border were still being hammered out. He also met with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal to discuss economic cooperation, the joint production of military equipment, and the eventual integration of Ukraine into the EU.  Kyiv Independent

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

The Americas

Biden faces challenge on U.S. Steel deal ahead of election.  The Biden administration has expressed concerns about Japan’s Nippon Steel’s $14 billion proposed acquisition of U.S. Steel, warning that the deal necessitates serious scrutiny.  U.S. lawmakers have criticized the deal for potential national security risks and because the two companies did not consult with the main union representing U.S. steel workers before announcing the deal.  The Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) is likely to review the deal on national security grounds.  The issue is set to become a potential flashpoint in the 2024 election as it is of concern to steel-producing states like Pennsylvania.  Biden faces a delicate decision on the deal as he balances managing ties with a key ally and sending negative signals to investors ahead of an election.  Politico

Europe

Northern European countries rush to secure defense deals with U.S. amid Russia concerns.  There has been a recent surge in new defense agreements between the U.S. and Northern European nations to allow for the quick deployment of American troops in the region. Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania all signed major pacts with the U.S. this month. All six of these agreements allow U.S. troops to operate in the partner country for training and reduce previous barriers allowing them to deploy quickly in an emergency.  Washington has already signed agreements with Iceland and Norway, meaning that the U.S. now has a legal framework to station troops in all the countries in Northern Europe. The Nordic countries also have their own deep defense ties as all are a part of the Nordic Defense Cooperation. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have also updated their own agreements with the U.S. to include new NATO deployment plans, Ukrainian troop training, and cyber cooperation.  The agreements come amid heightened concern in Europe about threats from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.  Finland has accused Russia of creating an artificial migrant crisis by sending migrants to the Finnish-Russian border.  Russian President Vladimir Putin also said days ago that Russia would be re-establishing the Leningrad Military District, a Russian military group that borders Finland.  Politico

Russia dismisses Wall Street Journal's report about Putin ally orchestrating Prigozhin’s death.  Russia accused the Wall Street Journal of publishing “pulp fiction” on Friday after it reported that the killing of Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin had been planned by Nikolai Patrushev, a former spy and close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Journal said that Patrushev directed the downing of a plane Prigozhin was riding in following the Wagner Group’s aborted uprising. The mutiny ended quickly but was seen as a challenge to Putin. The Kremlin has denied involvement in Prigozhin’s death. Patrushev is the former head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the FSB, and now serves as secretary of Russia’s Security Council. Reuters

Putin seizes control of Russia's biggest car dealership.  Russian President Vladimir Putin put Russia’s largest car dealership, Rolf, under temporary state control on Friday, a step which the Kremlin said was driven by commercial logic.  Rolf is owned by a Cyprus-based firm and was founded by Russian businessman Sergei Petrov.  The seizure of Rolf comes after the Kremlin has seized several Western-owned assets in response to Russian assets being frozen overseas due to the Ukraine war. This seizure marks the first time a Russian businessman has been targeted in this way. Petrov, who resides in Austria, is accused by Russian authorities of moving money abroad illegally. Rolf said that Alexei Gulyaev had been appointed as the new CEO with Svetlana Vinogradova as his deputy. The company added that the seizure would not affect its operations.  Petrov warned that the seizure of Rolf makes Russia look uninvestable. Reuters Bloomberg

Russia’s LNG development faces difficulties from sanctions, lack of tankers.  Russia aims to increase its liquefied natural gas (LNG) market share from 8% to 20% by 2030 to compensate for the decline in pipeline gas exports to Europe since the start of its invasion of Ukraine.  However, Russia faces challenges in achieving this, including Western sanctions and a shortage of gas tankers.  In a show of the impact of sanctions, top LNG producer Novatek declared force majeure on its Arctic LNG 2 project this week due to U.S. sanctions that are set to delay commercial LNG supplies from the project to the second quarter of 2024 at the earliest.  The E.U. may also impose restrictions on Russian LNG exports.  Russia’s shortage of tankers poses the most serious challenge to its goal of using the Northern Sea Route for quicker LNG delivery challenges.  Only three ice-class tankers have been built for Arctic LNG 2 and necessary infrastructure for further production may not be ready until after 2030.  Sanctions compound the issue since they have led to the cancelation of tanker orders.  Russia still remains committed to expanding its LNG market share, with Novatek continuing to pursue the Arctic LNG 2 project with partners like France’s Totalenergies, China’s CNPC, and Japan Arctic LNG.  Reuters

Asia and Oceania

Taiwan VP frontrunner says ruling party will not allow war with China.  Hsiao Bi-khim, former Taiwanese ambassador to the U.S. and current frontrunner to become Taiwan’s new vice president, said Friday that Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) would not let war break out with China, but added that Beijing is to blame for escalating tensions. China has portrayed the DPP’s candidate for Taiwan’s January elections, current Vice President Lai Ching-te, as a dangerous separatist and has aimed to cast the elections as a choice between peace and war.  Hsiao, Lai’s running mate, said that her opponents had blamed the DPP for tensions in the Taiwan Strait, but asserted that China is seeking to change the status quo with its pressure on Taiwan.  Throughout the campaign, current President Tsai Ing-wen and her DPP government have repeatedly offered talks with Beijing but have been rejected.  Reuters

China says it is cracking down on fentanyl production, resuming narcotics talks with U.S.  China’s foreign ministry said on Friday that Beijing is gradually resuming narcotics talks with the U.S. and that Chinese authorities have conducted operations against fentanyl production.  A ministry spokesman said the moves came after the U.S. removed the Chinese Ministry of Public Security's Institute of Forensic Science from a trade blacklist after President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in San Francisco in November.  The institute was blacklisted in 2020 for its role in China’s alleged human rights violations against Uighurs and other mainly Muslim ethnic minorities.  THe sanctions were lifted after Xi pledged to cooperate with the U.S. in cracking down on fentanyl production.  Washington has said that fentanyl precursor chemicals are made in China and sent to Mexico for final production of the drug.  South China Morning Post

Japan approves $56 billion military budget.  Japan approved a 7.95 trillion yen ($56 billion) defense budget for the 2024 fiscal year, marking a 16% increase in military spending from this year.  The budget allocates funds to accelerate Japan’s deployment of long-range cruise missiles that can hit targets in China and North Korea.  The budget also includes funds to obtain F-35 fighter jets, Type-12 cruise missiles, and U.S.-made Tomahawks, as well as the development of next-generation long-range and hypersonic guided missiles.  The funding will also bolster Japan’s missile defense systems, including with the construction of two Aegis-equipped warships to be deployed in 2027-2027.  The budget also includes subsidies to support Japan’s defense industry.  Associated Press

Japan prepares for first missile shipment since easing export arms restrictions.  Japan announced on Friday that it is preparing to ship Patriot air defense missiles to the U.S..  the decision comes after Tokyo made the first major revisions to its arms export guidelines in nine years. Japan has historically not allowed exports of deadly weapons, but has appeared to revise that stance in an attempt to boost its domestic defense industry amid growing tensions in the Indo-Pacific. However, the export controls still prevent weapons being shipped to countries that are at war.  This means that Japan is unlikely to provide deadly military assistance to Ukraine.  However, the Patriot transfers to the U.S. could help the Pentagon refill its stocks so it can increase its own military aid for Ukraine.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Africa

France completes military withdrawal from Niger.  France finished its withdrawal of military forces from Niger on Friday.  The Niger military junta, which severed ties with France after it took power in a coup in July, set a December 22 deadline for France to pull out its forces from Niger.  France had around 1,500 troops in Niger to support local counterterrorism efforts.  The completion of the withdrawal came days after France said it would close its diplomatic mission in Niger’s capital Niamey “for an indefinite period.”  However, French President Emmanuel Macron said on Thursday that France will continue to be involved in Niger with “important reconfigurations” to its military and diplomatic presence.  Analysts say the withdrawal of French forces, along with the drawdown of other foreign military missions, creates a security vacuum that could allow Sahel armed groups to expand.  Associated Press

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

Australia healthcare provider hit by cyberattack.  St. Vincent’s Health Australia, the largest non-profit healthcare provider in Australia, experienced a cyberattack that resulted in data theft from its networks.  St. Vincent’s did not confirm if it was a ransomware attack but said it is actively working with government officials to resolve the incident.  The hospital network detected attackers on its networks on Tuesday and took immediate steps to contain the situation and engage relevant authorities.  It is still assessing the extent of the cyberattack.  No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.  The incident is the latest in a series of cyber incidents targeting Australia’s medical, financial and telecommunications sectors.  The Record

Cyber threat identified targeting remote Ukrainian workers.  A recent espionage campaign targeting Ukrainian remote workers has been unveiled by cybersecurity firm Deep Instinct. The attacks, attributed to a group known as UAC-0099, primarily occurred in August and November this year. UAC-0099 has been targeting Ukraine since mid-2022, with a previous campaign aimed at Ukrainian government organizations and media. The attackers employed phishing emails, posing as the Lviv city court, which contained a court summons. When opened, these emails executed malicious code, introducing the info-stealing malware LonePage to victims' systems. The targets were Ukrainian employees working remotely for foreign companies. The hackers exploited a high-severity vulnerability in WinRAR, tracked as CVE-2023-38831, even after it was patched. Despite the patch, many users may remain vulnerable as WinRAR requires manual updates. This underscores the ongoing threat posed by this vulnerability.  This campaign highlights the attackers' sophistication, as the deception in the phishing emails made even security-conscious individuals susceptible to falling victim. The Record

Kazakhstan extradite Russian cyber expert to Russia despite U.S. requests.  Russia’s Prosecutor-General’s Office said on Thursday that Kazakhstan will extradite Russian cybersecurity expert Nikita Kislitsin to Moscow, rejecting a U.S. extradition request.  Kislitsin, former head of network security at cybersecurity firm Group-IB, was detained in Kazakhstan in June at the U.S.’s behest.  He was indicted by the U.S. Department of Justice in 2020 for his alleged involvement in a 2012 cyberattack on the now-defunct social media company Formspring.  The U.S. accused him of stealing login credentials.  Group-IB maintains it found no evidence of wrongdoing.  Kislitsin also reportedly faces hacking and extortion charges in Russia for allegedly unlawfully accessing server data and demanding a cryptocurrency ransom.  Kislitsin has reportedly been determined to return to Russia, where he could potentially evade transfer to the U.S.  Kazakhstan has yet to formally confirm an extradition decision.  The Record Radio Free Europe

The data cutoff for this product was 3:00p.m. E.T.

Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, and Leighton Durham contributed to this report.

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