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4:00 PM ET, Friday, December 15, 2023

Daily national security briefings aren’t just for the president anymore. The Cipher Brief uses AI partnered with human analysis and expert perspective to keep you up-to-date on national security news from around the world. 

Here’s what’s happening now:

THE TOP STORIES

Shipping Firms Pause Container Traffic Through Red Sea.  Danish shipping company A.P. Moller-Maersk said on Friday that it is pausing all container shipments through the Red Sea until further notice, a day after a missile attack against one of its vessels in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait off Yemen.  Any Maersk ships that were set to pass through the region have been instructed to pause their journey.  They have yet to be rerouted around Africa.  The company said a missile missed its vessel Maersk Gibraltar as it traveled from Salalah, Oman to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on Thursday.  The firm confirmed that the ship was not hit and there were no casualties.  It also denied a claim by the Iran-backed Houthis that the militant group hit a Maersk ship bound for Israel.  German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has also directed its ships to not enter the Bab al-Mandeb Strait after one of its ships was hit by a projectile while traveling through the waterway.  Reuters Wall Street Journal

Russia Could Block Export of Nuclear Fuel to U.S.  Russian state-owned uranium company Tenex reportedly warned American customers that the Kremlin may preemptively block exports of Russian nuclear fuel to the U.S. if Congress passes legislation blocking imports starting in 2028.  The House passed the import ban, but the measure remains in the Senate.  If Russia preemptively bars exports, it could potentially cause significant disruptions in uranium markets and lead to a spike in nuclear reactor fuel prices.  The U.S. Energy Department reports that Russia supplied nearly a quarter of enriched uranium used by U.S. commercial reactors, making it the top foreign supplier to the U.S. last year.  Bloomberg

ISRAEL AND HAMAS WAR

Israeli Troops Mistakenly Kill Three Hostages in Gaza.  An Israel Defense Forces spokesman said Israeli troops mistakenly killed three Israeli hostages in northern Gaza’s Shejaiya on Friday.  The spokesperson said the Israeli soldiers mistakenly identified the hostages as a threat and opened fire on them.  The spokesperson said the IDF is investigating the “tragic incident” and that it occurred in an area where soldiers “encountered many terrorists, including suicide bombers.”  When asked how the hostages escaped Hamas captivity, the spokesperson said they had fled or were abandoned by their captors.  Associated Press New York Times Times of Israel Reuters 

Israel Opens Kerem Shalom Crossing for Gaza Aid Shipments.  Israel has approved the transfer of aid into the Gaza Strip through the Kerem Shalom crossing. The Israeli prime minister’s office said that the opening of the crossing would allow Israel to follow through on the commitments made to permit the entry of 200 aid trucks per day, agreed in a hostage deal last month. The crossing has been closed since Hamas’s attack on October 7.  Aid was only permitted into Gaza through the Rafah crossing with Egypt, which Israel said only has a capacity of 100 trucks per day.  U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan called the opening a “significant step” and added that the White House hoped it would facilitate the distribution of aid.  The World Health Organization welcomed the decision as “good news”. Kerem Shalom is on the border of Egypt, Israel, and Gaza and is one of the primary transit points into the Gaza Strip. The opening of the crossing comes as the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to worsen, with the U.N. and other international organizations warning of severe shortages of food, clean water, and medicine.  Reuters

Dutch Court Rules Export of F-35 Parts to Israel Can Continue.  A Dutch court dismissed calls from human rights groups for the Dutch government to block shipments of F-35 fighter jet parts to Israel.  The rights groups said the shipments were helping service F-35 planes used by Israel in its bombing attacks in Gaza, which they argued could constitute war crimes.  Judges ruled that the Dutch government must retain a large degree of freedom on policy regarding arms exports.  However, the judges did note that it was likely the F-35s contributed to alleged violations of humanitarian law.  Lawyers for the rights groups said they would appeal the decision.  The Israeli foreign ministry said it does not comment on internal Dutch proceedings.  Reuters Associated Press France 24

Britain, E.U. Call on Israel to Counter Settler Violence in West Bank.  Britain, the E.U., and over a dozen other partner countries including Australia and Canada have called on Israel to take immediate and concrete steps to stop settler violence against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank.  The statement said that since the start of October, extremist settlers have committed over 343 violent attacks, killing 8 Palestinian civilians, injuring over 83, and forcing 1,026 Palestinians from their homes.  The group said settler violence undermines security in the West Bank and the region and “threatens prospects for a lasting peace.”  The statement came after Britain said it would ban those responsible for settler violence from entry to Britain, following a similar plan by the E.U.  Reuters 

Analysis: Iran Yet to Benefit From Israel-Hamas Conflict.  While Iran was set to benefit from the Israel-Hamas conflict and international anger at Israeli military actions in Gaza, it has yet to achieve tangible strategic gains.  Iran has been limited in capitalizing on the conflict, seen, for example, in its failure to convince Arab states to renounce ties with Israel in response.  Iran’s diplomacy with the West has also halted due to Tehran’s support for Hamas, preventing the release of frozen funds pledged in a prisoner release deal.  Tehran’s rapprochement with Saudi Arabia has also largely stalled.  These diplomatic developments have pushed Iran closer to Russia and China.  The U.S. has also increased its presence in the Middle East after the Hamas attacks, deploying more troops in the region to counter Iran-backed proxies in Iraq and Syria.  Further impacts on Iran and its anti-Western alliance depends on the fate of Hamas and what a post-conflict Gaza will look like.  Wall Street Journal 

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine Signs ‘Dozens’ of Contracts with Western Defense Firms.  Ukraine announced Friday that the government has signed dozens of contracts for joint production and technology exchanges with Western defense firms. This comes as Ukraine aims to reduce its military dependence on the West and ramp up its own domestic production amid uncertainty about future Western military aid. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced the contracts on Facebook and highlighted the international defense industry forum held in Kyiv in September, which was attended by more than 250 Western defense companies. This week, Ukraine held another conference with the largest British defense firms. Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelensky has previously said that Ukraine does not want to rely on military aid from allies and aims to support others militarily in the future. In general, Ukraine is seeking agreements similar to its deal with Germany’s Rheinmetall to service Western weapons, as well as another agreement with two American companies to jointly manufacture 155 mm artillery shells.  Reuters Kyiv Independent

Slovak Truckers End Blockade of Ukraine Crossing.  Ukraine’s state border service and a Slovak hauliers’ association said Friday that Slovak truckers ended their blockade of the only freight border crossing between Slovakia and Ukraine. The truckers started their blockade on Monday, demanding that the EU reintroduce permits for Ukrainian trucking firms that were removed after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. After the announcement of the end of the blockade, Ukraine’s border service said that approximately 60 trucks had made it through the crossing and another 1,065 were in the electronic system to leave. Due to a similar Polish blockade, a significant amount of traffic was routed through Slovak border crossings. Kyiv has said that the volume of wartime traffic makes reinstating the permit system impractical.  Reuters

THE CYBER AND TECH RUNDOWN

E.U. Offering Final Contracts for Satellite Constellation.  The European Space Agency is soliciting final offers for its 6 billion euro ($6.55 billion) IRIS² satellite constellation, which it hopes can compete with SpaceX’s Starlink and Amazon’s Kuiper networks.  IRIS² is set to be an array of up to 170 satellites that will provide secure communications for E.U. governments and open commercial broadband services for under-served areas between 2025 and 2027.  Currently, the sole known bidder for the main contract is a consortium of Airbus, Thales Alenia Space, Eutelsat, Hispasat and SES.  The E.U. currency plans to allocate 30% of the project’s funding to small firms.  There are concerns that bureaucratic delays will make the system outdated before launch, specifically missing out on artificial intelligence (AI) advancements.  Critics say incorporating AI into the constellation is critical amid competition with satellite networks from other countries like China.  Reuters 

Seattle Cancer Center Hit by Ransomware Attack.  The Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle is dealing with a cyberattack claimed by the Hunters International ransomware group.  The group claims it stole 533 GB of data from the cancer center.  Media reports say the data includes the information of 800,000 people and that the group is extorting individual victims, demanding $50 from each to remove their data from the leaked information.  The cancer center has notified federal authorities and is cooperating with them to assess the hack.  The ransomware attack is the latest in the increasing number of cyberattacks targeting healthcare organizations this year.  The Record

Four Charged Over $80 Million Pig Butchering Laundering Scheme.  A U.S. federal court charged four individuals for a pig butchering scheme that allegedly stole over $80 million in money laundering schemes using shell companies and fraudulent cryptocurrency investments.  The scheme involved luring victims into making seemingly profitable investments.  Scammers then prevented money withdrawals, leading to significant losses.  In 2022, cryptocurrency-related fraud, including pig butchering schemes, led to a 183% increase in reported losses to $2.57 billion.  The Record

ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD

Middle East

Lebanon’s Parliament Extends Top Army Commander’s Term.  Lebanon’s parliament approved the extension of Lebanon's top army commander Joseph Aoun Friday, avoiding a perceived vacuum in leadership in the military, an institution seen as critical to keeping peace in the country. This comes as hostilities continue between Hezbollah and Israel.  Aoun was expected to leave office next month with no consensus on who should fill the position across Lebanon’s deeply divided government. The role is reserved for a Maronite Christian in Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system. The army recruits from across the religious spectrum and is largely seen as the most trusted security institution in Lebanon. The U.S. actively supports the army with training and equipment and has provided cash stipends to soldiers and members of the Lebanese security services. The Parliament also voted to extend the term of the leader of Lebanon’s internal security service, a Sunni Muslim.  Reuters 

Europe

Belarus Conducts Sudden Air Defense Readiness Check.  Belarus started a sudden readiness check of all of its air defense forces on Friday.  The country’s defense ministry said the check involves anti-aircraft missile units and radio engineering troops eliminating practice targets.  The checks reportedly involve S-300 and S-400 air defenses and Rosa-RB radar systems.  Kyiv Independent

Russian Opposition Leader Navalny Being Moved to New Prison.  Russia’s prison service said on Friday that opposition leader Alexei Navalny is being moved to a prison in another part of the country and that his arrival there would be disclosed as per Russian law.  Navalny’s allies have raised alarm about the movement and said that he is expected to be transferred to a “special regime” colony, the harshest level facility in Russia’s prison system. The process of moving prisoners via rail can take weeks, with lawyers and family unable to get information about the prisoner’s wellbeing and location.  Navalny was last seen by lawyers on December 6 and was reportedly transferred from the penal colony he was held at on December 11.  Navalny was sentenced to an additional 19 years in prison in August on extremism charges in addition to the 11 and ½ years he was already serving.  Reuters Wall Street Journal Associated Press

Africa

Niger Junta Prepares Plan to Restore Democracy, Togo Foreign Minister Says.  Togo’s foreign minister Robert Dussey said that Niger’s military junta leaders have agreed on a plan to restore democracy to the country which will be presented to ECOWAS for approval. Dussey recently traveled to Niger on behalf of ECOWAS, which has been pushing for a quick return to constitutional order in Niger after the military seized power in a coup in July.  Dussy said both sides agreed on the “content and timing of the transition” to constitutional order during his visit, though he did not give specific details. ECOWAS has since decided on a summit in Nigeria on Sunday to establish a committee of leaders from Togo, Sierra Leone, and Benin to engage with the Niger junta on a transition roadmap. The West African bloc said it would progressively ease sanctions based on the outcome of the talks. A senior U.S. diplomat said this week that the United States was prepared to resume security and development cooperation with Niger if the junta took steps towards restoring democracy in the country.  Reuters

The Americas

Venezuela, Guyana Leaders Meet, Agree Not to Use Force in Esequibo Dispute.  The leaders of Guyana and Venezuela met in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines on Thursday and agreed to avoid any use of force and to not escalate tensions over the oil-rich Esequibo region.  The region is generally considered a part of Guyana but Venezuela has revived its claim on it in recent years.  Venezuela held a referendum earlier this month to make Esequibo a new Venezuelan state and rejected the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice on the matter. The joint statement said that disputes would be resolved in accordance with international law but noted that Venezuela did not recognize the ICJ. The two countries are expected to continue their dialogue in Brazil in the next three months.  Reuters Bloomberg

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Ethan Masucol and Leighton Durham contributed to this report. 

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