6:00 PM ET, Friday, August 4, 2023
The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:
In the Americas
Biden Set to Order Curbs on Investments in China. President Joe Biden is expected to issue an executive order to screen outbound investments into sensitive technologies to China. The goal of this order would be to prevent U.S. capital and expertise from enhancing the development of technologies that would support China’s military and threaten U.S. national security. The order is suspected to target U.S. private equity, venture capital and joint venture investments into Chinese semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and quantum computing. The topic came up during U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s recent trip to China. Yellen described the potential restrictions as “highly targeted, and clearly directed, narrowly, at a few sectors where we have specific national security concerns.” Reuters
Republican Presidential Candidate Christie Visits Ukraine. Republican presidential candidate and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie visited Ukraine on Friday. He met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv and visited a mass grave in Bucha, as well as Irpin. Christie said he made the trip to give Americans a better look into the war and to advocate for continued U.S. support for Ukraine. His trip comes amid concerns that results from the 2024 presidential election may impact U.S. aid for Kyiv. Reuters
Central and Eastern Europe
Russian Defense Minister Visits Ukraine. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the frontlines in Ukraine, according to Russian news agencies citing the defense ministry. Interfax said Shoigu visited the headquarters of the “Centre” army group near Lyman where he was briefed by a group commander. During his visit, he was reportedly shown a Swedish CV-90 infantry fighting vehicle that was abandoned by retreating Ukrainian soldiers when it was damaged by a hand-held anti-tank grenade. Analysts say the report is part of Russian efforts to frame NATO weapons and equipment as ineffective. Shoigu’s trip came days after General Valery Gerasimov reportedly visited the front. Reuters
Russia’ Doubles 2023 Defense Spending Plans. Russia doubled its 2023 defense spending target to over $100 billion, according to a government document reviewed by Reuters. The document showed that Russia has spent 5.59 trillion rubles, or around $60 billion dollars, on defense in the first six months of 2023. The figure accounts for 37.3% of total public expenditure and a 12% increase from planned defense spending in that period. The increase comes from rising costs of the war in Ukraine. Analysts say that while the war is encouraging high short-term military-industrial production, it is pushing budget finances to a deficit of billions of dollars, which is further exacerbated by reduced exports, and is siphoning off resources from other sectors of the economy. The Russian government and finance ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the matter. Reuters
China Participating in Ukraine Talks Hosted by Saudi Arabia. Chinese Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui will participate in Ukraine war talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia this weekend. China’s foreign ministry announced on Friday that he will be attending, describing it as a show of China’s dedication to playing “a constructive role in promoting a political solution” to the Ukraine war. Analysts say China is likely intent on ensuring the talks do not turn into an “anti-Russian” event aimed at isolating Russia and “serve as a bridge” between both sides. Analysts say China’s participation is likely also aimed at acknowledging Saudi Arabian attempts to act as mediator and play a wider diplomatic role globally. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he hopes the Jeddah talks will lead to a “peace summit” of world leaders in the autumn aimed at endorsing Ukraine’s proposal for a peace settlement. China’s endorsement would be critical as it maintains close ties with Moscow. South China Morning Post Reuters
IAEA: No Explosives on Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Roofs. A team from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) says they have found no evidence of explosives on the roofs of areas in the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant that have been in question for over a month. On July 4th Russian and Ukraine both accused each other of planning an attack at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant. On July 5 a team from the IAEA requested access to inspect areas of the plant known as Unit 3 & 4, which had been under Russian supervision. The team was finally granted access and say they saw no evidence of explosives in those areas and say they will continue to press for access to other areas of the plant. Reuters
Ukraine Accuses Russia of Planning 'False Flag' Attack at Belarus Refinery. The Security Service of Ukraine has accused Russia of preparing to stage a “false flag” attack at the Mozyr oil refinery in Belarus. The attack would be used in order to blame Ukrainian saboteurs as part of an effort to bring Minsk into the war in Ukraine. In a statement on the Telegram app, Ukraine said that the attack would be carried out by military and intelligence forces sent by Moscow to Belarus. The Russian forces would be disguised as Wagner mercenaries who were exiled after staging a mutiny in Russia in June. No evidence has been provided to corroborate these claims. Ukraine has stated that its assertions were based on information obtained from several sources, including a captured Russian serviceman. Reuters
Poland Arrests Belarusian Suspected of Spying. Poland has detained a suspected Belarusian member of a Russian spy network. This recent arrest brings the number of people detained as part of an ongoing investigation to 16. The press service of Poland’s intelligence and security services said in a statement that the suspect came to Poland in 2021 following several years in Russia, including six years in jail. "The Belarusian individual pleaded partly guilty... He was charged with taking part in the activity of foreign intelligence targeted against Poland... Upon the court’s decision, he has been remanded in custody for a period of three months.”, it said. As a hub for Western military equipment bound for Ukraine, Poland has become a major target for Russian spies. Warsaw has accused Russia and Belarus of trying to destabilize Poland. Reuters
Putin Bans 'Unfriendly' Foreigners from Owning Stakes in Russian Firms. Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently signed a law allowing for “unfriendly” foreign investors to be barred from holding stakes in major Russian companies and banks, according to RIA. It said that the Russian government will draw up a list of Russian firms to be covered within the law, according to the amount of revenue, size of workforce, or taxes paid. Under this law, the rights of foreign investors from countries unfriendly to Russia, mostly those who have imposed sanctions on Russia, could have their rights suspended and their shares distributed within proportion to Russian owners. Last month Russia took control of Danish beer company Carlsberg’s stake in a Russian brewer, as well as a Russian subsidiary of French yogurt maker Danone. These moves come as Russia seeks to take control of the assets of Western companies in retaliation for the seizure of Russian-owned assets abroad. Reuters
Jailed Russian Opposition Politician Navalny Sentenced to 19 More Years in Prison. Jailed Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny was sentenced on Friday to serve an additional 19 years in prison. This came after he was found guilty on a series of charges. Navalny, one of the most prominent opponents to President Vladimir Putin, is already serving eleven and a half years in the penal colony east of Moscow on charges of fraud which he says were levied to silence him. Reuters
Asia and Oceania
China Airs Documentary Signaling Military Preparation. Beijing is attempting to send strong signals regarding its preparation for an attack on Taiwan, with PLA soldiers pledging to sacrifice themselves for the cause in a new movie. The film is an eight-episode documentary series called ‘Zhu Meng’ (Chasing Dreams) and aired on state broadcaster CCTV to mark the 96th anniversary of the PLA. A pilot in one of the PLA’s stealth fighter jets vows to launch a suicide attack if doing so is necessary, saying “My fighter would be my last missile,”. The documentary series is intended to offer a view of the PLA’s operation scenarios, like seizing air superiority, sea control, and information tech suppression before launching an amphibious landing operation. South China Morning Post
China Protests to Russia Over Denial of Entry for Chinese Influencer. China lodged a protest with Russia after a well-known Chinese video blogger, who is known as “Jin Wenxin,” and his friends were denied entry into Russia from Kazakhstan. The Chinese embassy in Moscow said the Chinese nationals faced “barbaric and excessive” treatment from Russian authorities, adding that the incident “violated the legitimate rights of Chinese citizens” and was “totally out of line of the currently amicable relationship between China and Russia.” The embassy said it has asked Russia to investigate the incident. Russian officials say they denied the Chinese nationals entry due to inconsistencies in their travel plans. South China Morning Post
Pakistan Court Pauses Khan Case Over State Gifts. A Pakistani high court temporarily halted former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s trial on charges that he illegally sold state gifts while premier from 2018 to 2022. Khan has denied any wrongdoing. If convicted in the case, Khan could be barred from running upcoming national elections in November. The court’s decision came after it asked a trial court to assess whether a legal complaint filed by Pakistan’s election commission constituted a criminal proceeding. Khan faces several charges and was briefly arrested in May on corruption charges, which sparked violent protests. Reuters
Middle East and Northern Africa
OPEC+ Keeping Oil Production Steady. OPEC+ ministers agreed on Friday to not change the group’s current oil output. The decision by the panel, called the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, came after Saudi Arabia decided on Thursday to extend a voluntary oil output cut of one million barrels per day (bpd) for another month through September while also leaving the possibility that it could be extended or deepened further. The cut helped rally oil prices further. Algeria has yet to decide if it will extend its own voluntary cut of 20,000 bpd for August, according to sources. The development comes as oil inventories are set to play a key role in the fall amid rising demand and tightened supplies, in part due to Western sanctions on Russia. Reuters
Sub Saharan Africa
West African Leaders Finalize Niger Military Intervention Plans. Defense chiefs from West African nations have reportedly drawn up military contingency plans if the coup in Niger is not overturned by the weekend according to an ECOWAS official on Friday. ECOWAS has given Niger’s coup leaders until Sunday to step down. The ECOWAS official stated that all of the plans for how military intervention would work including the resources had already been decided upon. The junta in Niger has denounced talk of outside intervention and vows to resist any military attempts to overturn the coup. Reuters
Cyber and Tech
‘Five Eyes’ Cybersecurity Agencies Issue 12 Most Exploited Vulnerabilities in 2022. Five Eyes cybersecurity authorities (U.S., Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and Britain), in a joint statement with CISA, NSA, and the FBI, have released a list of the 12 most exploited cyber vulnerabilities in 2022. They accompanied the list with an appeal to worldwide organizations to take action to mitigate security flaws and patch vulnerabilities. The joint advisory reported that threat actors are intensifying attacks on outdated software flaws, with particular attention to unpatched systems accessible on the Internet. The exploitation of many software vulnerabilities by a broader range of threat actors was aided by the public availability of “proof of concept code.” The list of 12 most exploited flaws was led by a Fortinet SSL VPN vulnerability that was patched in 2019. It is notable for having been attacked by state-linked hackers attempting to breach U.S. government elections support systems. The agencies’ warning also spotlighted 30 additional vulnerabilities used frequently against organizations, and included information on steps cybersecurity teams can take to reduce their exposure. BleepingComputer
U.S. Lags Other Nations in Implementing Key Internet Gateway Protocol. One of the most important elements for routing data on the Internet – Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) – has been identified as a cybersecurity measure implementation in which the U.S. is “lagging behind” other nations. CISA Director Jen Easterly and FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel issued a blog post in which they acknowledged that the U.S. is behind in instituting more stringent BGP measures. The blog statement noted that CISA is collaborating with the National Cyber Director and the Office of Management and Budget “to chart a clear path toward cleaning up BGP security practices among all Federal agencies.” It mentioned CISA’s work to examine BGP vulnerability risks and the agency’s efforts “to help network operators respond to route leaks and BGP hijacks more quickly.” The CISA and FCC chiefs convened a meeting this week of leaders of government agencies, Internet service providers, and others to review BGP security measures that are being implemented or planned. BGP serves as the foundation for everyday actions on the Internet such as banking and telemedicine. The FCC launched an inquiry last year to investigate BGP vulnerabilities and was later joined by the Justice Department and Defense Department because of concerns over how telecommunications authorities in other countries, including China and Russia, might abuse BGP to seize U.S. Internet traffic. Last September, the Justice Department said China Telecom Americas misrouted U.S. Internet traffic to China by exploiting BGP vulnerabilities. Reportedly, Russia used BGP vulnerabilities to mount attacks on Ukrainian banks last year. The Record
Cyberattack Hits Hospitals, Health Care Facilities Across U.S. A cyberattack disrupted hospital computer systems across several U.S. states on Friday. The “data security incident” started on Thursday at facilities operated by California-based Prospect Medical Holdings, which has medical facilities in Texas, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Pennsylvania. The company said it took systems offline to investigate the cyber incident with relevant authorities. The attack forced some patients and ambulances to be diverted and the suspension of some primary care services. Associated Press
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