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6:00 PM ET, Friday, August 25, 2023

The Cipher Brief curates open source information from around the world that impacts national security. Here's a look at today's headlines, broken down by region of the world:  

The Americas

NORAD Scrambles Jets to Intercept Aircraft Near Where Biden is Vacationing in Tahoe.  The U.S. military scrambled two F-16 fighter jets on Friday to intercept a civilian aircraft that flew in temporarily restricted air space near Lake Tahoe, where President Joe Biden and his wife Jill Biden are currently vacationing.  North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said the F-16s fired flares to draw the attention of the aircraft and escorted it away without incident.  A Coast Guard helicopter was also involved in the intercept.  The Secret Service said the incident was “not of protective interest” and White House officials said Biden was not impacted.  Associated Press

U.S. Backs Indonesia Military Modernization Drive.  US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met with Indonesian Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto at the Pentagon on Thursday. The meeting comes amidst Indonesia’s push to modernize its military, allocating 134.3 trillion rupiah ($8.89 billion) this year to defense programs. The Pentagon stated that the two defense ministers shared a mutual intention to increase defense capabilities “like fighter aircraft upgrades, new multi-role fighter aircraft, and additional fixed and rotary wing transport aircraft”. Both Austin and Prabowo also reportedly stated that China’s claims in the South China Sea “inconsistent with international law”. Indonesia’s Defense ministry added that Washington and Jakarta are committed to maintaining “an open, inclusive, and rule-based order”. Reuters

Western Europe

Wagner Social Media Groups Say Senior Wagner Official Detained in Finland. Social media channels linked to Russia’s Wagner Group say that Finland has detained a senior official from a Wagner affiliated organization at the request of Ukraine.  A so-called far-right “subunit” of Wagner called Rusich identified the fighter as Yan Petrovsky, its founding member and leader.  Petrovsky, who is under EU sanctions, reportedly established Rusich as a neo-Nazi unit during fighting in the Donbas in 2014.  Telegram posts say Petrovsky was initially arrested on July 20th for a visa violation and is now facing potential extradition to Ukraine.  It is currently unclear how Petrovsky was capable of entering Finland while under EU sanctions. Russian state news agency RIA cited the Russian embassy as saying it was aware of the detention of Petrovsky and was taking steps to offer consular assistance.  Reuters

Dutch Supreme Court Rules Israeli Commanders Immune in Palestine Strike Case.  The Dutch supreme court ruled on Friday that ex-Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz and former Israeli military commander Amir Eshel are immune from civil prosecution over a case about an Israeli air strike in Palestine.  Ismail Ziada - a Dutch national of Palestinian origin - filed a civil suit in the Netherlands against Gantz back in 2014 after an Israeli attack on Gaza killed his mother, three of his brothers, his sister-in-law, and his nephew.  The Dutch supreme court upheld a December 2021 Dutch appeals court ruling finding which said that Gantz and Eshel could not be held liable in a Dutch civil case “irrespective of the nature and seriousness of the conduct alleged against them.”  There is no further appeal possible against the supreme court’s decision.  Reuters   Associated Press

Central and Eastern Europe

Belarus’s Lukashenko Says He Urged Prigozhin to Watch Out for Attempts on His Life. ​​Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that he had warned Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin to watch out for potential threats to their lives.  Lukashenko said that Prigozhin had twice dismissed the Belarusian leader’s concerns about the threats to his life.  It is unclear when Lukashenko warned Prigozhin, but he did say that during the Wagner munity, he told the mercenary leader that he would “die” if he continued to march on Moscow.  Lukashenko added that he did not believe Russian President Vladimir Putin was behind the plane crash that reportedly killed Prigozhin and Utkin this week, saying that Putin “is calculating, very calm, even tardy” and that the crash was “too rough and unprofessional a job” for the Russian leader.  The Kremlin has denied involvement in the crash, though Western officials have largely not been surprised at Prigozhin’s reported death and say he was likely assassinated.  Notably, the plane crash happened two months to the day after the failed Wagner uprising.  Moving forward, Lukashenko added that “the core” of Wagner fighters will remain in Belarus, saying that “as long as we need this unit, they will live and work with us.”  Reuters

Russian Investigative Group Profiles Passengers on Prigozhin’s Plane.  Russian investigative group Dossier Center released a report on the other passengers in the plane crash that reportedly killed Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner commander Dmitry Utkin.  The report said that the other passengers — Sergey Propustin, Evgeniy Makaryan, Aleksandr Totmin, Valeriy Chekalov, and Nikolay Matuseev — are believed to have been part of Prigozhin’s inner circle.  Utkin was a trusted lieutenant of Prigozhin since the creation of the Wagner group; Chekalov was one of Prigozhin’s’ deputies who oversaw “civilian” projects abroad, such as oil production and logistics; Makaryan and Matusevich are recorded members of the fourth Wagner assault detachment in Syria; and Propustin served in the Wagner combat unit Kirill Tikhonovich.  CNN

Zelensky, Turkish Foreign Minister Discuss Black Sea Grain Deal.  Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in Kyiv on Friday to discuss the Black Sea Grain deal. The deal, brokered by Turkey and the UN, had allowed grain from Ukraine to be safely exported out of Black Sea ports, however, Russia had quit the deal last month. In a statement on Telegram, President Zelensky stated “many important issues were discussed. (Ukraine's) Peace Formula. Preparations for the Global Peace Summit (planned by Ukraine). Risks posed by the Russian blockade of the Black Sea grain corridor."  Reuters

Putin, Turkey’s Erdogan to Meet Soon. Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to hold talks with Turkish President Recep Erdogan in the near future, as Ankara attempts to persuade Moscow to come back to the Black Sea grain deal. The arrangement was brokered by Turkey and the U.N. in July 2022 with a goal to alleviate a global food crisis and allow grain shipments from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. Last month, Moscow dropped out of the deal citing that a similar agreement to facilitate Russian grain and fertilizer exports was not being implemented. Putin had told Erdogan on a phone call on August 2nd that Russia was willing to return to the deal if the West met its obligations regarding Russia’s exports. Despite Russian grain and fertilizer not being subject to sanctions from the West, Moscow has stated that restrictions on logistics and insurance have been a barrier to implementation. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said that there is an “understanding that this meeting will take place soon.”  Reuters

Ukraine Dismisses Emergency Service Chief.  The Ukrainian government dismissed the head of its State Emergency Service, Serihy Kruk, on Friday after an internal inspection of his agency.  Interior Minister Ihor Kylmenko confirmed the dismissal without giving particular reasons.  Kruk’s deputy, Volodymyr Demchuk, will serve as the agency’s acting head.  The service has been critical in the Ukraine war as it responds to support victims and addresses damage from Russian air strikes and shelling.  Reuters

Estonian PM Kallas Under Pressure to Resign Over Husband’s Link to Company in Russia.  Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is facing pressure to resign following reports that her husband has maintained his stake in a company that has continued operations in Russia following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.  Two major Estonian newspapers called on her to resign and a majority of respondents in two opinion polls said she should step down.  Kallas’s husband indirectly owns a 25% share in Stark Logistics, an Estonian company that has supplied an aerosol container factory in Russia, which is owned by another Estonian company.  Kallas says that while she does not have detailed information on Stark Logistics, she is confident about her husband’s explanation that it is only helping the other Estonian company as it winds down operations in Russia.  Her husband has since announced that he will sell his stake in the company and resign from its board of directors.  Critics say Kallas has been evasive about the matter.  Euronews Financial Times Reuters RFE/RL

Poland Investigating Potential Intentional Tampering of Water Over Legionnaires’ Disease Outbreak.  Poland’s domestic security agency is investigating whether intentional tampering with the water system has led to a recent outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease in southeastern Poland.  The outbreak has killed at least seven people and hospitalized 113 others in and around Rzeszow, a strategic city near the border with Ukraine.  Officials said investigations into potential intentional activity are routine to rule out certain scenarios, including possible involvement by Russia.  Associated Press CNN Reuters 

Asia and Oceania

Vanuatu Pro-Western PM Loses No-Confidence Vote.  Vanuatu’s supreme court has ruled that a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Ishmael Kalsaku was won by the nation’s opposition party last week.  Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Bob Loughman lodged the no-confidence petition.  He has criticized Kalsaku for signing a security pact with Australia, which Loughman argued is part of Kalsaku’s policies that compromise Vanuatu’s “neutral” status and thus jeopardizes development assistance from China.  If there is no appeal or it is rejected by Monday afternoon, parliament will have to vote in a new prime minister.  Reuters

Australia, Philippines Hold South China Sea Drills Focused on Retaking Islands.  Australian and Filipino troops practiced retaking an island during joint drills on the northwestern Philippine coast, which faces the South China Sea.  The exercises, which were observed by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, involved mock amphibious landings and helicopter insertion of forces. Around 1,200 Australians and 560 Filipinos, as well as 120 supporting U.S. Marines, are participating in the wider exercises. Marles said the drills aim to promote peace and stability in the region amid heightened tensions with Beijing over maritime disputes in the South China Sea.  Associated Press

Middle East and Northern Africa

Saudi Arabia Considering Chinese Bid for Nuclear Power Plant.  Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering a bid by China National Nuclear Corp (CNNC) to build a nuclear power plant in the kingdom’s Eastern Province.  Saudi officials say Riyadh’s consideration of the Chinese bid is meant to make the U.S. compromise on its nonproliferation conditions for Saudi Arabia, which stipulate that U.S. support to help the kingdom develop a civilian nuclear program is contingent on the Saudis committing to not enrich their own uranium or mine uranium deposits in their territory.  Officials say that Saudi Arabia would prefer to have South Korean state utility Korea Electric Power build the plant’s reactors with U.S. expertise, but without Washington’s nonproliferation controls.  The officials added that Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman is ready to advance talks with China on the project if talks with the U.S. fail.  The Chinese and Saudi foreign ministries and CNNC have not commented on the matter.  News of the Chinese bid comes amid increased cooperation between Riyadh and Beijing following the China-brokered rapprochement deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran earlier this year.  Still, Saudi Arabia has sought to maintain a balance between its key trade partner China and main security partner the U.S.  Wall Street Journal

Qatar PM says China Ties Shouldn’t Worry U.S.  Qatari Prime Minister Sheik Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani on Friday defended Doha’s ties with Beijing and rejected suggestions that Qatar must choose between China and the U.S.   Speaking at a lecture in Singapore, he said that Qatar will work with any country, “but none of our relations with any specific country will be at the expense of another.”  He then dismissed a suggestion from an audience member that growing Chinese defense sales in the Middle East could impact the region’s security ties with Washington.  Qatar, like other Middle Eastern powers, has been balancing expanding ties with China with its traditional security relationship with the U.S.  Reuters 

Sub Saharan Africa

Niger Orders French Ambassador to Leave.  The Niger military junta ordered French ambassador Sylvain Itte to leave the country in the next 48 hours.  The junta said Itte was asked to leave after he failed to meet with the foreign ministry when requested.  The junta also cited “actions of the French government contrary to the interests of Niger” as a reason for Itte’s expulsion.  The French foreign ministry protested the move, saying Itte’s approval came only from the “legitimate elected Nigerien authorities.”  Al Jazeera

Somali Forces Captured Al Shabaab Stronghold.  Somali forces on Friday captured the town of El Buur in Galmudug state, the al Shabaab militant group’s main stronghold in central Somalia.  The capture of the town marks a major victory in the offensive launched last year by Somalia and allied fighters against al Shabaab.  Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has pledged to eliminate al Shabaab in the next five months.  A second phase of the offensive against the group is set to go after al Shabaab in its traditional heartland in southern Somalia.  Despite the progress, experts and some fighting the offensive are doubtful that the campaign will fully wipe out al Shabaab in the near term.  Reuters

Libya’s LNA Launches Strikes on Border Region Where Chad is Fighting Rebels.  The Libyan National Army launched air strikes against “foreign armed groups” near the border with Chad on Friday.  The strikes came after Chad said its army was fighting in the area against the Libya-based Chadian Front for Change and Concord (FACT) rebel group, which withdrew from a ceasefire with Chad’s government last week.  FACT has fought with LNA as one of the many factions in Libya’s civil war, but they fought on opposing sides during fighting two years ago when the father of Chad’s President Mahamt Idriss Deby was killed.  An LNA media unit said in addition to the strikes, it expelled members of the Chadian opposition and their families from a residential area 200 miles north of the border with Chad.  Reuters

Mozambique Says it Killed Top Insurgency Leader.  Mozambique’s armed forces have killed the alleged leader of the Islamic State-linked insurgency in the region of northern Cabo Delgado province, according to the defense ministry. The ministry said the alleged leader, Ibn Omar, who has led operations “since the outbreak of terrorism in Mozambique,” was killed alongside two associates.  The U.S. State Department had designated Omar as a “terrorist leader” and claimed he was responsible for attacks in Cabo Delgado, and an attack on a hotel in the town of Palma.  Reuters

President of Ethiopia’s Amhara Region Resigns.  Yilkal Kefale, the president of Ethiopia’s Amhara region, has announced his resignation during an emergency meeting of the regional council. Kefale stated that he had first submitted his resignation letter to the ruling Prosperity Party eight months ago, but the eruption of violent protests in April delayed his resignation. The protests stemmed from an order made by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed that would integrate regional security forces into the police or federal army. Kefale is to be replaced by former militia leader Arega Kebede. Reuters France24

UN Aid Chief Warns of Further Escalation of Sudan Conflict.  UN undersecretary general for humanitarian affairs Martin Griffiths says that the conflict between Sudan's army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is fueling a humanitarian emergency of epic proportions. Analysts estimate that nearly 5,000 people are likely to have been killed. According to UN figures, 4.6 million people have been forced to flee their homes. Griffiths says the conflict and displacement left in its wake “now threatens to consume the entire country.”  France24

Cyber and Tech

CISA Touts Vulnerability Disclosure Platform.  CISA says its Vulnerability Disclosure Policy (VDP) Platform has seen “tremendous growth” since its launch in July 2021.  U.S. federal government agencies use the VDP Platform to publish and promote information they receive from cybersecurity researchers about new vulnerabilities. CISA reports that as of December 2022, the platform has “facilitated the remediation of 1,119 vulnerabilities out of 1,330 unique, validated submissions.”  Commonly remedied bugs reported through the VDP Platform include the injection of malicious code into websites through cross-site scripting (XSS), severe misconfigurations, and data exposure.  House lawmakers introduced legislation this week that would expand the VDP mandate to include federal contractors as well as government agencies.  The Record

Data Breach at French Government Unemployment Agency May Have Exposed Data of 10 Million People.  France's government unemployment registration and financial aid agency, Pôle emploi, says a potential data breach targeting one of its providers may have exposed the personal information of 10 million individuals.  The agency said the cyber incident may have impacted job seekers registered in February 2022 and former users of the agency’s job center.  The agency’s financial aid programs appear to be unaffected.  The security firm Emsisoft listed Pôle emploi as a victim of the MOVEit hacking campaign, but the Clop ransomware gang behind it has yet to publish the agency in its extortion site.  BleepingComputer 

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