Report for Wednesday, February 12, 2025

THE TOP STORIES

Report for Wednesday, February 12, 2025

Russia frees American teacher detained for three years in deal negotiated by Steve Witkoff

Zelensky: Europe cannot guarantee Ukraine’s security without America

Danish Intelligence warns that Russia could start a major war in Europe within 5 years

Estonia says China aids Russian drone production with smuggled Western parts

Netanyahu says Israel will end tenuous Gaza ceasefire if hostages are not returned on Saturday

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Why Jordan and Egypt Are Critical to Trump’s Gaza Proposal. After meeting with President Trump on Tuesday in Washington, Jordan’s King Abdullah II says he is still opposed to the president’s proposal to relocate Gaza’s 2 million Palestinian residents to “a parcel of land in Jordan” and “a parcel of land in Egypt.” “We contribute a lot of money to Jordan and to Egypt, by the way, a lot to both, but I don’t have to threaten that,” said the President. “There’s a great sense of wanting to help the Palestinians. There’s a lot of good countries out there, people that rule those countries with big hearts and this gentleman [King Abdullah] is at the top of the list.” The Cipher Brief lays out what Trump wants from King Abdullah and Egyptian President Fatah el-Sisi and the risks his plan presents to their own nations' security. Exclusively in The Cipher Brief 

Expert Q&A: Trump’s Greenland Moves are ‘Kicking an Open Door’ for the U.S.  Former United States Ambassador to NATO Doug Lute spoke with The Cipher Brief about President Trump’s  ambitions in Greenland as President Trump presses  for U.S. control of the semi-autonomous Danish territory, calling it an “absolute necessity” to American national security. While the president hasn’t ruled out the use of force to achieve U.S. control, Lute says the U.S. may be “kicking on an open door." He added: “This may be an instance where unfettered access, free flowing exchange of goods, services, trade, and security arrangements is not that difficult.” Read the full Q&A exclusively in The Cipher Brief

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Zelensky: Europe cannot guarantee Ukraine’s security without America. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Europe alone could not provide Ukraine with genuine security guarantees without the U.S. “Security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees,” he told The Guardian ahead of a key diplomatic trip. Facing U.S. President Donald Trump’s skepticism on aid, Zelensky has proposed U.S. firms receive priority in Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction and access to natural resources, including rare earths. He hopes to meet Trump but will first engage with Vice President JD Vance at this weekend’s Munich Security Conference. Trump, who said he recently spoke with Russian President Vladimir Vladimir Putin, suggested Europe should maintain peace in Ukraine. Zelensky expressed concerns about a U.S.-Russia deal forcing Ukraine into concessions but stressed he would negotiate from strength. The Guardian Politico EU

Treasury Secretary Bessent to Visit Kyiv as Trump Seeks Minerals. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will travel to Ukraine this week, becoming the first member of President Donald Trump’s cabinet to visit Kyiv. His trip follows President Donald Trump’s announcement Tuesday that the U.S. seeks an agreement exchanging aid for access to Ukraine’s mineral resources. “This War must and will end soon,” Trump posted on Truth Social, emphasizing America’s financial burden. Ukraine holds vast reserves of uranium, titanium, and lithium, but many are in Russian-occupied areas. President Volodymyr Zelensky told The Guardian on Monday that he was open to a land swap with Russia besides negotiating U.S. access to minerals in exchange for support. He plans to meet with Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference this weekend. Meanwhile, Trump’s envoy, Keith Kellogg, is expected to present options soon as the administration pushes to end the war. Bloomberg Wall Street Journal

Russia Hits Kyiv With Missiles Before Bessent Visit. Russia launched a ballistic missile attack on Kyiv and its surrounding region early Wednesday, with explosions reported and air defenses engaged, according to officials. Mayor Vitali Klitschko said at least one person was killed and three injured, with fires breaking out in three districts. The attack occurred ahead of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s visit to Kyiv, where he is set to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky. "This Russian terror against Ukraine will not stop on its own," Zelensky wrote. Russian President Vladimir Putin “is not preparing for peace — he continues to kill Ukrainians and destroy cities."Preliminary reports indicate that four Iskander ballistic missiles were launched towards the capital.Bloomberg Kyiv Independent

Ukraine’s rare earth elements could help keep US military aid flowing. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected in Kyiv this week to explore a potential deal to keep U.S. aid flowing to Ukraine in exchange for access to rare earth minerals. Ukraine possesses vast but largely untapped reserves of rare earth elements, including lithium, titanium, and uranium, essential for aerospace, defense, and battery technologies. In 2021, the Ukrainian mineral industry accounted for 6.1% of the country’s gross domestic product and 30% of exports. However, Ukraine’s mineral industry faces hurdles: incomplete geological data, restrictive regulations, and 40% of metallic mineral resources are in Russian-occupied territory. While U.S. companies have shown interest, developing Ukraine’s rare earth sector would require significant investment, legal frameworks, and security guarantees. The European Commission has identified Ukraine as a strategic supplier of over 20 critical materials. Associated Press

U.S. will not send troops to Ukraine, according to Pentagon chief.U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Tuesday that the U.S. will not send U.S. troops to Ukraine. Speaking with reporters in Germany, Hegseth said that he would push European allies to spend more on defense when he meets with them later this week. "The European continent deserves to be free from any aggression, but it ought be those in the neighborhood investing the most in that individual and collective defense," Hegseth said. Reuters

Trump's comments on Ukraine don’t land well in Kyiv. President Donald Trump’s remark that Ukraine “may be Russian someday, or they may not be Russian someday” in a Fox News interview on Monday sparked outrage in Kyiv. “It is some kind of senile insanity,” said one Kyiv resident, while another accused Trump of lacking any real understanding of Ukraine’s history and struggle. Ukrainian soldier Mykola dismissed the idea outright, saying, “Ukraine will never be Russia.” The Kremlin seized on Trump’s words, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov claiming they reflected “realities” on the ground and suggesting that many Ukrainians want to join Russia. Some in Kyiv, however, viewed Trump’s comments as political theatrics, believing that Western support for Ukraine will continue. Others stressed that even if a peace deal is reached, Ukraine will never forgive Russia for its invasion. “This will not happen,” one resident insisted, rejecting the notion of Russian control. France 24

Ukraine offers contracts to incentivize youth to fight. Ukraine's Defense Ministry launched a recruitment campaign Tuesday targeting 18- to 24-year-olds for one-year military contracts, offering $24,000 in salary, bonuses, and housing subsidies. The initiative aims to bolster Ukraine's outnumbered forces. Volunteers will receive NATO-standard training and a one-year exemption from mobilization. The move comes after Ukraine lowered the draft age from 27 to 25 amid declining enthusiasm due to indefinite front-line service. President Volodymyr Zelensky has resisted U.S. calls to lower the draft age further. Zelensky recently said Ukraine had 980,000 people in arms. Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the size of the Russian army to be increased to 1.5 million active servicemen. Reuters

Ukraine will no longer create new brigades. Ukraine will stop forming new military brigades and focus instead on strengthening existing units, Deputy Head of the Presidential Office Pavlo Palisa said on Tuesday. The shift includes adopting a corps system to improve battlefield management and resource efficiency. The decision follows concerns over military discipline, notably abuses in the 211th Pontoon Bridge Brigade, where commanders allegedly mistreated soldiers, including allegations of tying one soldier to a wooden cross for hours. The scandal led Defense Minister Rustem Umerov to launch an investigation, while President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed a military ombudsman to improve oversight and ensure better conditions within Ukraine’s armed forces. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine's defense minister says arms deliveries, joint projects on the agenda for meeting. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said weapons deliveries and joint projects with European partners will be key topics at Wednesday’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels. The 50-nation group, chaired by British Defense Secretary John Healey, will discuss accelerating air defense, aviation, and ammunition shipments. Umerov also aims to boost European arms production and expand Ukraine’s output. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is expected to urge European allies to increase defense spending.Reuters

Ukrainian Lawmakers Approve Contentious Purchase of Nuclear Reactors. On Tuesday, Ukraine’s parliament approved purchasing two unused Russian-made nuclear reactors from Bulgaria for at least $600 million, sparking criticism over cost, corruption risks, and a lengthy installation timeline. The government plans to install them at the Khmelnytskyi nuclear plant, arguing they will bolster Ukraine’s energy security amid Russian attacks. Critics, including opposition lawmaker Inna Sovsun, warn the deal may enable corruption and divert funds from urgent needs like weapons or rapid energy solutions. Ukraine’s nuclear energy minister insists this is the fastest option, but the European Union declined to finance it, raising questions about affordability. With most thermal and hydroelectric plants destroyed, nuclear power is critical, but expanding it in wartime poses risks. President Volodymyr Zelensky supports the purchase, dismissing opposition as self-interested. Kyiv’s foreign backers may scrutinize the deal, especially with U.S. support uncertain under President Donald Trump.New York Times Reuters

Ukraine's Battlefield Fights Are Messy. Its Political Battles Are Getting Messy, Too.Ukraine is facing both battlefield and political struggles as it nears three years of full-scale war with Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government is grappling with internal disputes, including a feud with Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko and an investigation over the defense minister’s actions in arms procurement. Military challenges persist, with Ukraine slowly losing ground to Russian forces while struggling to recruit soldiers. Meanwhile, Zelensky’s approval is slipping, with former military chief Valeriy Zaluzhniy ranking higher in trust polls. As discussions over potential elections emerge, concerns grow over Russian interference. RFE/RL

Russia's Medvedev calls Ukraine's territory exchange proposals 'nonsense.’ Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, dismissed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s proposal to exchange Russian-held Ukrainian land for Russian territory occupied by Kyiv, calling it "nonsense." Medvedev claimed Russia enforces "peace through strength," citing missile and drone strikes on Kyiv. Russia controls nearly 20% of Ukraine, or more than 112,000 square kilometers, while Ukraine holds around 450 square kilometers of Russia’s Kursk region. Zelensky outlined the proposal in an interview with The Guardian as part of efforts to end the war. Reuters

Russians evacuated to Ukraine after Kursk shelter bombed.A Russian airstrike on Feb. 1 hit a shelter in Sudzha, a city in Russia’s Kursk region, killing at least five people and forcing over 100 Russian civilians to flee into Ukraine for medical care and refuge. Survivors described being trapped under rubble for hours, with Ukrainian soldiers and civilians working to rescue them despite Russian drone threats. Kyiv claims a Russian glide bomb hit the shelter, while Moscow blames a Ukrainian missile. Many evacuees, including supporters of Russian President Vladimir Putin, struggled to reconcile their experiences with the Kremlin’s narrative. Some said their perspective changed after witnessing the war firsthand. Others simply longed for peace. Washington Post

UN says drones have become the most common cause of death for civilians in war.The United Nations reported Tuesday that short-range drones were the leading cause of civilian deaths in Ukraine in January, accounting for 27% of the 139 fatalities and 30% of the 738 injuries recorded. The war has seen a surge in drone production, with both Ukraine and Russia manufacturing over a million drones in 2024. Danielle Bell, head of the UN monitoring mission, warned that drone cameras should allow operators to avoid civilian casualties, yet deaths remain high. The UN estimates nearly 12,500 civilian deaths since Russia’s invasion, though it acknowledges the actual toll is likely higher. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, Feb. 11. Russian authorities are reportedly suppressing milbloggers’ reporting on Ukrainian advances in Kursk Oblast. Russian forces targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure with missile and drone strikes on Feb. 10–11, testing new attack patterns to bypass air defenses. Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Saratov Oblast and reportedly targeted Engels Air Base overnight on Feb. 10–11. The Russian State Duma removed Andrei Gurulev from the Defense Committee, likely due to his criticism of the military and past controversies. The Kremlin may be setting conditions for false-flag attacks in the Baltic Sea and against Russian opposition figures abroad to discredit Ukraine. Russian regional authorities are reportedly cutting payments to soldiers with minor injuries. 

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Toretsk, while Russian forces advanced near Borova, Lyman, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Velyka Novosilka, and Hulyaipole.Institute for the Study of War

AMERICAS

Russia frees American teacher detained for three years in deal negotiated by Steve Witkoff. Russia released American teacher Marc Fogel on Tuesday, as part of a deal with the Kremlin negotiated by Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East.  Arrested in August 2021 on charges of bringing medical marijuana into Russia and classified as wrongfully detained, Fogel was flown out of the country on Witkoff’s plane and brought to the White House. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz said Fogel’s freedom was negotiated as part of an exchange, but did not disclose who was handed over to Russia. The Kremlin said a Russian was freed in the deal but did not disclose the person’s identity.  Adam Boehler, the U.S. special envoy for hostage affairs, told CNN that another American would be released on Wednesday.  The deal could signal President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to build ties with the new administration.  New York Times BBC Associated Press CNN CBS 

Trump administration readies more tariffs against more nations, more imports. The prospect of a global trade war looms as President Donald Trump and his trade advisers make plans to levy reciprocal tariffs on every country that charges duties on U.S. imports. On Monday, the U.S. imposedtariffs on all steel and aluminum imports beginning March 12, drawing condemnation from Mexico, Canada and the European Union and sending industries reliant on steel and aluminum importsin search of supplies.  Last week, the U.S.added a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, effective February 4.  Hedelayed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada while negotiations are under way  to tighten U.S. borders and halt the flow of fentanyl.  The goods to be targeted in the next rounds of tariffs haven’t been announced.  Reuters 

Senate Democrat accuses Kash Patel, nominated as FBI director, of secretly orchestrating purge. Ina letter to the Justice Department’s inspector general, Senator Richard J. Durbin, D-Ill., said he has “highly credible information from multiple sources” that Kash Patelhas jumped the gun and is already running a purge of career FBI officials before being confirmed to lead the Bureau. The Senate Judiciary Committee, where Durbin is the ranking Democrat, is scheduled to vote Thursday on Patel’s nomination. Durbin said if the allegations are true, then acting Deputy Attorney General Emil Bove fired career civil servants “solely at the behest of a private citizen.” He said that Patel “may have perjured himself” athis confirmation hearing last month.   Reuters The Economic Times NBC New York Times CNN 

Musk holds White House press briefing to defend DOGE.  Elon Musk,President Donald Trump’s adviser on government efficiency, spoke at length to reporters at the White House Tuesday,  defending cuts that he’s pushing across the federal government. Standing alongside the President’s Desk,  Trump praised Musk’s team’s work with his Department of Government Efficiency, insisting they’ve found “shocking” evidence of wasteful spending. An executive order signed by Trump  expands Musk’s influence even further.  Musk described himself as an open book, joking that scrutiny over hisextensive influence over federal agencies was like a “daily proctology exam.” Associated Press  

Canada names new fentanyl czar to coordinate efforts to halt smuggling. Canada has appointed Kevin Brosseau, a former Royal Canadian Mounted Police deputy commissioner, as its fentanyl czar in a bid to strengthen efforts against the production and distribution of the synthetic opioid. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau underscored the urgency of tackling the fentanyl crisis, stating that Brosseau’s appointment will enhance cooperation with the United States and expedite “efforts to detect, disrupt, and dismantle the fentanyl trade.” The move comes after President Donald Trump threatened tariffs on Canadian goods, citing concerns over drug trafficking and migration. While fentanyl smuggling from Canada to the U.S. is minimal compared to Mexico, Washington has agreed to pause tariffs for a month to assess Canada's response. Associated Press Reuters 

Charges mount against ex-aide to two New York governors, and husband, in foreign Chinese agent case.Former New York state official Linda Sun and her husband, Chris Hu, are facing additional charges in a case accusing Sun of acting as an unregistered agent of the Chinese government. Both pleaded not guilty in Brooklyn federal court on Tuesday, with Hu now facing three new money laundering counts. Sun, a naturalized U.S. citizen born in China, held high-ranking government positions, including serving as deputy chief of staff to Governor Kathy Hochul and deputy diversity officer under former Governor Andrew Cuomo. Prosecutors allege that, under the influence of Chinese officials, Sun worked to promote China's priorities in New York, including blocking Taiwanese representatives from accessing the governor’s office. In return, the couple allegedly received gifts and business favors. The two are also accused of using illicit funds to purchase luxury properties and vehicles. Sun’s lawyers argue that she is being unfairly targeted, claiming that prosecutors assume wealthy Chinese Americans must have suspicious ties to Beijing. However, prosecutors insist that the charges are supported by ample evidence, including Sun’s failure to register as a foreign agent, her concealment of actions taken on behalf of China, and her misrepresentation of trips funded by Chinese representatives. The case is part of a larger U.S. Justice Department effort to expose covert Chinese government agents operating on American soil, particularly those involved in harassing and intimidating dissidents. Sun and Hu remain free on bond and are scheduled to appear in court again on April 23. Associated Press 

China in ‘axis of evil’: US lawmaker reveals stark vision of countries under Trump and Xi. U.S. congressman Rob Wittman labeled China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran as a growing “axis of evil,” drawing parallels to 1938 during remarks at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. He stressed strengthening military cooperation with allies through the Quad and Aukus alliances. In response, Chinese scholar Da Wei likened Trump’s foreign policy to the 1945 Yalta Agreement, suggesting a shift from U.S. global leadership toward nationalism. Former U.S. official Rick Waters argued that Trump’s China policy differs from Biden’s mainly in tactics, predicting continued military alliances and industrial base expansion under Trump’s leadership.South China Morning Post 

NASA-SpaceX capsule switch could bring two Starliner astronauts home earlier than anticipated.NASA has announced that astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, who have been “stranded” on the International Space Station (ISS) since June due to issues with Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft, may return to Earth earlier than expected. Their return had been pushed to late March due to delays with the SpaceX Crew-10 mission, but NASA now plans to launch Crew-10 as soon as March 12. Confusion over their situation arose after Elon Musk and President Donald Trump falsely suggested that the Biden administration had abandoned them, and that Musk was stepping in to bring them home. However, NASA had planned since August to return them on a SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule and delayed the process due to what they called necessary technical adjustments. CNN Space.com CNBC Reuters SpaceNews 

Amnesty International describes grievous effects of gang violence on Haitian children. A new report by Amnesty International describes the brutal cycle of violence and neglect that has trapped Haitian children, who the organization says are increasingly being exploited by gangs. The report says that children are forced to carry weapons, spy on police, and perform tasks under the threat of violence, and many are recruited out of fear or hunger. UNICEF estimates that 30% to 50% of gang members are minors, and refusal to cooperate often results in death for them or their families. With Haiti’s National Police severely underfunded, efforts to curb gang violence rely on an underfunded and ill-equipped U.N.-backed mission led by Kenya. Associated Press Amnesty International 

EUROPE

Danish Intelligence warns that Russia could start a major war in Europe within 5 years. The Danish Defense Intelligence Service is warning that Russia could wage a large-scale war in Europe within five years if NATO appears weak or divided, particularly if the U.S. is absent. The service warns that within six months, Russia could engage in a localized war with a neighboring country, and in two years, it could launch a regional war in the Baltics. The assessment assumes Russia cannot fight multiple wars simultaneously but is actively preparing for conflict with NATO. The report does not account for potential NATO military build-up. Politico EU

German navy chief warns warships are target of sabotage.German Navy chief Vice Admiral Jan Christian Kaack warned Tuesday of increasing sabotage against German warships, saying "destruction" has been recorded on multiple vessels. He also reported intrusions into naval bases and attempts to approach soldiers, stating, "They are testing us... trying to unsettle our society, both nationally and in the alliance." Kaack stressed, "The growing threat from Russia is more urgent at the beginning of 2025 than it was two years ago," citing intelligence assessments that Moscow could seek conflict with NATO by 2029. He announced an expansion of naval defense plans under "Navy Course 2035+," saying, "We have no time to lose." The Navy has increased mine countermeasures and deepened diving capabilities to match the Nord Stream pipeline depth. While Kaack did not confirm specific incidents, reports suggest a new corvette was sabotaged in a Hamburg shipyard with metal shavings in its propulsion system. MSN NTV

Estonia says China aids Russian drone production with smuggled Western parts. Estonia’s foreign intelligence reported Wednesday that China is the main hub for smuggling Western components to Russia’s military, with 80% of critical drone parts now coming from China. "Chinese interests here lie in preventing Russia from losing the war," said intelligence chief Kaupo Rosin, saying private Chinese companies enable covert transfers. The report warns that assistance will reduce Russia’s dependence on Western tech and weaken sanctions. Estonia also notes Russia is expanding its military to 1.5 million personnel and will position forces along NATO’s borders after its war on Ukraine. Rosin cautions that Moscow is open to a ceasefire only to "catch breath" while still aiming for dominance in the Baltic region by pressuring NATO to withdraw troops from its eastern flank. Reuters

Poland says a Russian military jet violated Polish airspace. On Tuesday, a Russian SU-24MR jet entered Polish airspace over Gdansk Bay, flying 6.5 kilometers into Poland for just over a minute before altering course. Poland said Russia attributed the violation to a navigation failure. Polish airspace monitors contacted Russian authorities, who confirmed the incursion. Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak noted that Russia has long tested Baltic defenses. Poland’s foreign ministry will evaluate the incident and respond accordingly. The jet was flying from Kaliningrad. Reuters RBC-Ukraine 

Vance says U.S. cares 'a lot' about Europe; Von der Leyen calls him an ally after meeting. U.S. Vice President JD Vance met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Paris on Tuesday, amid rising trade tensions following Washington’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Despite initial friction, observers said the meeting struck a positive tone, with von der Leyen calling Vance an ally and emphasizing shared challenges. She hinted at cooperation on global steel overproduction, particularly from China, which has been a major concern for the U.S. and the European Union. The meeting, held on the sidelines of an AI summit, marked the first high-level engagement between the EU and the second Trump administration. Reuters Politico EU

EU Pledges Countermeasures Against Trump’s Tariffs on Metals. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, set to take effect on March 12, has sparked swift backlash from the European Union. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the tariffs “unjustified” and vowed “firm and proportionate countermeasures” to protect EU economic interests. The bloc has prepared retaliatory tariffs of up to 50% on €4.8 billion worth of U.S. goods, including whiskey, motorcycles, and steel products. EU trade ministers will meet on Wednesday to finalize their response. Trump defended the move as a means to boost U.S. industry, warning that tariffs “may go higher.” He also threatened additional levies on cars and semiconductors. The EU seeks a negotiated solution but is prepared to escalate if necessary.Bloomberg Financial Times

Russia offers India its most advanced Su-57 stealth fighter jet. Russia has offered to produce its Su-57 fifth-generation stealth fighter jet in India for the Indian Air Force, contingent on government approval. The move aims to strengthen defense ties as Moscow struggles with export restrictions due to its war on Ukraine. A Russian industry source and an Indian official confirmed informal talks with India’s government and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. Russia’s state arms exporter said local production, with full technology transfer, would shield India from Western sanctions. India seeks to bolster its fleet amid China’s military expansion. The Su-57, plagued by delays, entered serial production in 2022. Reuters

Italy carries out biggest crackdown against Sicilian mafia in decades. Italian police arrested 163 members of the Sicilian mafia in the country’s largest crackdown in decades, uncovering efforts to rebuild Cosa Nostra’s ruling council. Wiretaps revealed freed mafia bosses recruiting young members while complaining that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government refused to ease prison restrictions. Meloni hailed the arrests as a “hard blow” to organized crime. Prosecutors warned that Cosa Nostra is forging closer ties with the Calabria-based crime syndicate ’Ndrangheta to regain its influence in the drug trade. The operation, involving 1,200 officers, followed two years of investigations, exposing sophisticated mafia communications, including encrypted phones smuggled into prisons. Financial Times

MIDDLE EAST

Netanyahu says Israel will end tenuous Gaza ceasefire if hostages are not returned on Saturday.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is warning that Israel will its Gaza ceasefire if Hamas does not release hostages by Saturday at noon, saying Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are prepared to resume “intense fighting” if the deadline is not met. His remarks closely align with President Donald Trump, who has also insisted that Hamas release all remaining hostages by the same deadline, saying, "all bets are off" if they do not comply. The Israeli military has called up reservists as they ready for a potential resumption in violence. Hamas has delayed the release of hostages claiming Israeli ceasefire violations, including shelling in Gaza and an inadequate flow of humanitarian aid. The group claims that aid, including emergency shelters and medical evacuations, is not reaching the enclave quickly enough, and insists that the delay is meant to allow negotiators time to resolve these issues. Washington Post Reuters Reuters Associated Press Times of Israel 

North Korea dismisses U.S.’s Gaza ownership suggestion as 'bluster.’ North Korean state media strongly condemned U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposal to take over Gaza and relocate its residents, calling it an act of robbery that destroys Palestinian hopes for peace. In a commentary published by the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), North Korea criticized the U.S. for what it described as an "anachronistic daydream", accusing Washington of encroaching on the dignity and sovereignty of other nations. While the report did not mention Trump by name, it mocked past U.S. geopolitical ambitions, including calls to take over the Panama Canal and Greenland, and the proposal to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the "Gulf of America". KCNA described the U.S. as a "ferocious robber" and warned against its influence in global affairs. Despite Trump's past meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, North Korean state media has largely ignored his second term, focusing instead on criticizing the security threats posed by Washington and its allies. North Korea has been particularly vocal about the Gaza conflict, blaming Israel for the bloodshed and labeling the U.S. as an accomplice in the violence. Reuters Al Jazeera Yonhap News Agency 

U.N. staff member, detained by Houthis in Yemen, dies.A World Food Programme (WFP) worker has died while in Houthi detention in northern Yemen, the U.N. agency confirmed on Tuesday. The worker was among seven Yemeni WFP staff who have been “arbitrarily detained” by Houthi authorities since January 23. The circumstances of the worker’s death remain unclear, and the Houthis have yet to comment. The announcement came just a day after the U.N. suspended operations in Saada, a Houthi stronghold, over safety concerns. The pause follows the detention of eight additional UN personnel, adding to more than 60 staff members from the U.N., NGOs, and foreign embassies already being held. Yemen’s civil war, which escalated when Houthis seized control of the northwest a decade ago, has caused over 150,000 deaths and led to one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with 4.8 million displaced people and 19.5 million requiring aid. BBC Reuters Associated Press Al Jazeera  

ASIA AND OCEANIA

U.S. Navy ships traverse sensitive Taiwan Strait, drawing ire from China. Two U.S. Navy ships, the USS Ralph Johnson and USNS Bowditch, sailed through the Taiwan Strait this week in the first such mission since President Donald Trump took office in January. The U.S. military described the transit as operating in international waters, and exercising freedom of navigation. Navy Commander Matthew Comer asserted that the “transit occurred through a corridor” in the waterway that is “beyond any coastal state's territorial seas." However, China condemned the move, calling it a security risk that sends “the wrong signals.” The nation deployed forces to monitor the passage. China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, strongly opposes foreign military presence in the strait. Its military has been increasing operations in the area, with Taiwan reporting frequent Chinese naval and air force activity. Beijing also criticized a U.S.-Japan statement supporting stability in the region and Taiwan’s participation in global organizations. Reuters South China Morning Post 

Taiwan inks $761 million deal with Washington for US NASAMS defense package. Taiwan has signed a missile deal with the U.S. to strengthen its air defense against potential attacks from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The contract, worth NT$24.98 billion (US$761 million), includes the purchase of three National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) from the U.S., with delivery expected by 2030. The agreement, initially approved under Joe Biden’s presidency, was formally signed during Donald Trump’s administration. The NASAMS units will be deployed in Taipei's Songshan district and New Taipei City's Tamsui district to protect key government and infrastructure sites. The decision to acquire NASAMS follows the retirement of the island’s older Hawk missile system, and aims to enhance its multi-layered air defense strategy. The new systems will work alongside existing U.S.-made Patriot missiles, Stingers, Sky Bow-2s, and F-16 fighter jets. South China Morning Post  FirstPost 

China initiates patrols near contested Diaoyu Islands following buoy removal.The Chinese coastguard on Wednesday launched patrols near the disputed Diaoyu Islands (called the Senkakus in Japan), just a day after confirming the removal of a controversial buoy it had deployed in the area since July 2023. Beijing claims the patrols are legal, and meant to protect its rights, though Japan has long protested against Chinese activities in its exclusive economic zone (EEZ). On Tuesday, China stated that the hydrometeorological observation buoy, deployed near the islands in the East China Sea, was removed after completing “its operations at its original stations.” The removal of the buoy follows a November meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, which hinted at a softening in rigid relations. However, Japan remains cautious, reiterating demands for the removal of other Chinese buoys in contested waters, including one near Yonaguni Island that China asserts is for “meteorological purposes.” South China Morning Post 

South Korea election official dismisses impeached Yoon’s fraud allegations. South Korea's National Election Commission (NEC) on Tuesday upheld the integrity of the country’s elections amid allegations by impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol that votes may have been compromised. Secretary General Kim Yong-bin testified in Yoon’s impeachment trial, stressing that while cybersecurity vulnerabilities had been found and addressed, there was no evidence of election fraud. Yoon, who deployed troops to the NEC and tried to impose martial law on December 3, justified his actions by claiming concerns over election hacking. However, no proof has been presented to support these claims. Former intelligence officials confirmed security flaws but found no evidence of vote tampering. The Constitutional Court is set to decide whether to reinstate Yoon or remove him permanently. Yoon also faces criminal charges for insurrection and remains in jail. Yoon’s legal team has defended the military action, citing the legitimacy of martial rule, while also raising concerns about potential Chinese interference in South Korea’s elections. China’s ambassador has denied involvement. Reuters The Korea Herald South China Morning Post  

Indonesian, Turkish leaders discuss defense and economic ties.Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto in Bogor, West Java on Wednesday in a bid to strengthen economic and defense ties between their two Muslim-majority nations. The meeting marked the first High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council (HLSCC) summit, a forum established in 2022 to enhance bilateral relations. Erdogan's visit to Indonesia is part of a four-day regional tour that also includes Malaysia and Pakistan. Discussions between the two leaders covered strategic issues, including defense cooperation and global concerns such as the war in Gaza. Erdogan has reiterated his opposition to a U.S. proposal to relocate Palestinians, and insisted that Israel should bear the cost of Gaza’s reconstruction. Indonesia and Turkey have been deepening defense ties in recent years, having signed a defense cooperation agreement in 2010. They previously collaborated on developing a medium tank, and in 2023, they agreed to expand joint military exercises and defense industry partnerships. Erdogan and Subianto are expected to sign agreements on trade, investment, education, and technology. Associated Press 

AFRICA

South Africa vows to pursue Israel genocide case despite Trump pressure. South Africa is pushing ahead with its genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order cutting aid in retaliation. Trump’s order halts $440 million in U.S. assistance and threatens to strip South Africa of its trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which enabled $3.6 billion in exports to the U.S. last year. Washington also accused South Africa of collaborating with Iran on military and nuclear projects, claims Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola dismissed as misinformation. “There is no chance” of withdrawing the case, Lamola said. “Standing by our principles sometimes has consequences, but we remain firm that this is important for the world and the rule of law.” The Democratic Alliance called for urgent repairs in U.S. relations. Financial Times

M23 rebels order displaced people to leave settlement camps and return to distant villages.Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have forcibly closed displacement camps in eastern Congo, causing over 110,000 people to flee in recent days, according to the United Nations and local reports. The rebels, who recently seized Goma, the region’s largest city, initially issued a 72-hour ultimatum for displaced people to leave settlement camps and return to their villages. Though they later claimed returns should be voluntary, the U.N.’s humanitarian agency, OCHA, confirmed that several large camps have been dismantled, with their inhabitants forced to leave. Humanitarian groups caution that many people will have to move to areas where aid is even harder to reach. Doctors Without Borders warned that these forced displacements will deepen an already dire humanitarian crisis. Many displaced people have expressed distress over being forced to evacuate without any assistance. Some worry about how they will provide for their children, while others who have lost their homes to bombings now have nowhere to go. The insurgents insist their goal is to restore normalcy in the city, but ongoing clashes continue to be reported as fighters push toward Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu province. Associated Press UN News BBC 

Congo’s rebels, pushing south, launch attack on army as thousands flee.The Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have resumed attacks on Congolese government forces in South Kivu province, breaking a brief two-day hiatus in fighting. Heavy shelling erupted on Tuesday near Ihusi, located approximately 70 kilometers from Bukavu, just days after a regional summit of East and Southern African leaders called for an immediate ceasefire. The M23 rebels have already seized large areas in eastern Congo, including Goma, and are now advancing toward Bukavu, another key city in the region. Tensions escalated further after Congolese authorities arrested 84 army personnel for alleged crimes against civilians near Bukavu. In response, a spokesperson for the rebel coalition Congo River Alliance warned that the insurgents might push their fight into Bukavu to "eradicate the threat at its source” and “protect our people.”  The M23, composed primarily of ethnic Tutsis, claims to be fighting for the rights of minority groups, while the Congolese government asserts that the rebels are seeking control over the mineral-rich eastern region. BBC Al Jazeera Reuters 

At least 55 civilians killed by militia in devastating east Congo village attack. Armed fighters from the CODECO militia have killed at least 55 civilians in an attack on villages and a displacement camp in Ituri province, northeastern Congo. Local authorities believe the death toll may rise as more bodies are recovered from burned-down homes. The brutal attack, which took place on Monday night in the Djaiba cluster of villages, targeted civilians, many of whom were displaced people. Fighters rampaged through the area, beheading residents, setting homes of fire, and shooting indiscriminately. UN peacekeepers (MONUSCO) and Congolese government troops intervened, but were overtaken by the larger number of militia fighters. CODECO, or the Cooperative for the Development of Congo, is a loose network of militias. The group has been responsible for nearly 1,800 deaths and over 500 injuries in the past few years. The U.N. has suggested that some of its attacks may constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. Associated Press Reuters 

Puntland forces repel Islamic State attack, kill 70 militants.Government forces in Somalia’s northeastern Puntland state managed to stave off an overnight attack on military bases by Islamic State (IS) militants who used a suicide car and motorbike bombs. According to Puntland’s military spokesperson, security forces had prior intelligence about the attack and managed to neutralize the suicide bombers before they could inflict significant damage. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) provided air support, helping Puntland forces defeat the militants and kill around 70 IS fighters. While Puntland forces also suffered casualties, officials have not disclosed the number of troops lost. This attack comes as Puntland continues its major offensive against Islamic State and al Qaeda-linked al Shabaab, killing dozens of foreign fighters, capturing multiple IS bases, and forcing a senior commander to surrender. Islamic State’s faction in Somalia, despite being smaller than al Shabaab, has grown in recent years and is bolstered by foreign recruits and increased revenue streams. The group has also become more significant within ISIS’s global network, and was targeted with U.S. airstrikes earlier this month. Somalia’s state news agency reported that government troops repelled further attacks on military positions in Hagaaro and Togo-Jecel within the Cal Miskaad mountains, where both IS and al Shabaab militants remain active. Despite these efforts, extremist groups continue to pose a serious security threat in Puntland and across Somalia. Reuters VOA 

Junta-led Mali, Canada’s Barrick Gold suspend talks without securing an agreement.Negotiations between Mali and Barrick Gold Corp. over a dispute concerning payments from the Loulo-Gounkoto gold mine have been suspended. The Malian government is demanding a $197 million settlement from the Canadian mining company, along with adherence to a new mining code introduced in 2023. A key point of contention in the negotiations is the method of payment; while Mali wants a one-time settlement, Barrick is pushing for an installment plan. If an agreement is reached, Mali could return the three tons of gold it seized from the mine in January and free four Barrick employees who have been detained since November. These employees are facing accusations of money laundering and financing terrorism, with the Malian junta alleging that $5.6 billion was moved out of the country without proper authorization. Mali’s military-led government has recently intensified its pressure on foreign mining companies, demanding higher payments and greater compliance with its regulations. The crackdown has not been limited to Barrick; last year, Resolute Mining’s CEO Terry Holohan was detained in Bamako for a week before his company agreed to pay $160 million and adopt the new mining code. Other mining firms have also reached agreements with Mali that include settlement payments and commitments to expansion projects. Bloomberg Reuters 

South Sudan falls to the bottom of global corruption survey, as organization gives many nations worst scores in over a decade. South Sudan ranked as the most corrupt country in Transparency International’s 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index, dropping to just eight points, below Somalia (nine), Venezuela (10), and Syria (12). The report found that 47 of 180 surveyed countries hit their lowest scores in over a decade, reflecting global stagnation or regression in anti-corruption efforts. Russia recorded its worst-ever ranking at 154th place, with its score dropping to 22 due to entrenched authoritarianism and war-driven resource misallocation. The U.S. fell from 69 to 65 points, with concerns over judicial ethics. France, Germany, and Slovakia also declined, while Mexico saw a five-point drop amid judicial inaction on corruption cases. Transparency International warned that corruption threatens climate change efforts by enabling embezzlement and corporate influence over policy. Ukraine dropped one point to 35 but was praised for judicial reforms and anti-graft prosecutions. Despite minor progress in some regions, global corruption remains “alarmingly high.” Associated Press Transparency.org France 24 Kyiv Independent   

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

China’s tech stocks enter bull market after DeepSeek breakthrough. Chinese tech stocks have surged into a bull market, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 25% in the past month, driven by DeepSeek’s AI breakthrough. The budget-built AI model has reshaped investor sentiment, fueling foreign interest in China’s internet companies. Alibaba, Xiaomi, Baidu, and BYD have all posted significant gains. The rally comes despite challenges from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and China’s economic slowdown. DeepSeek’s development raised doubts about the necessity of massive AI investment, impacting U.S. tech stocks. Investors now see China excelling in AI adoption, boosting expectations for fiscal stimulus and further market growth. Financial Times

Vance warns Paris AI summit of excessive regulation, affirms U.S. innovation drive. Vice President J.D. Vance has called on Europe to embrace "the new frontier of AI with optimism" and adopt a lighter touch on tech regulation. He echoed grievances aired by U.S. companies against Europe's efforts to rein in Big Tech, urging AI regulation that does not strangle the burgeoning industry. Vance directly criticized Europe's Digital Markets Act and the Digital Services Act. In his speech to the summit audience, which included European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, he described the E.U. legislation as "onerous international rules" creating hurdles for U.S businesses. He also slammed Europe's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which he said has caused massive compliance costs for the private sector.  Despite these criticisms, Vance noted that the tone of the Paris summit was helpful, adding that "I like to see that deregulatory flavor making its way into a lot of conversations.” Regarding U.S. approaches to AI, Vance said opportunities were there to be seized and said Washington's response to the technology's challenges would no longer be risk-averse. Vance underscored the point, saying "“The AI future is not going to be won by hand-wringing about safety. It will be won by building.” The vice president also took aim at autocratic countries, particularly China, which he said are weaponizing AI to censor and distort history. “From CCTV to 5G equipment," Vance said, "we’re all familiar with cheap tech in the marketplace that’s been heavily subsidized and exported by authoritarian regimes." He then shared an "old adage" from Silicon Valley: "If you aren’t paying for the product, you are the product." Vance told the summit that “the United States of America is the leader in AI, and our administration plans to keep that.”  Politico   Washington Post   New York Times   Reuters   TechCrunch   Wall Street Journal   Cybernews

U.S., Britain opt out of Paris AI Summit joint declaration signed by 70 states, organizations. The U.S. and Britain have declined to sign the joint declaration on AI of the Paris AI Action Summit, a document endorsed by 70 governments, international bodies, and research institutes, including the E.U., China, Japan, and India.  The declaration commits to “ensuring AI is open, inclusive, transparent, ethical, safe, secure and trustworthy” and calls for a “global dialogue” on AI governance measures.  It also draws attention to AI energy use, which experts warn could rise to the level consumed in small countries in the future.  Paris was the first of the three AI summits to discuss the energy topic.  A spokesperson for the British prime minister confirmed the U.K. did not sign, but pointed to Britain’s participation in other summit initiatives, including a “Coalition for Sustainable AI” that will monitor AI’s impact on the planet.  Michael Birtwistle, an executive with the U.K.’s Ada Lovelace Institute, commented “looking at the summit declaration, it's difficult to pinpoint what exactly in that statement the government disagrees with.”  TechCrunch   Politico   Reuters   BBC

Chinese participant in Paris AI summit urges collaboration with U.S. on future development. Former Chinese vice foreign minister Fu Ying, a participant at the Paris AI Action Summit, told a panel session on AI governance that China and the U.S. should work jointly to “control the (AI) machine.”  She noted that “many are not optimistic about U.S.-China AI collaboration, and the tech world is increasingly subject to geopolitical distractions.”  Without international cooperation, Fu said, “I am afraid that the probability of the machine winning will be high.”  She went on to criticize U.S. policies toward China, commenting that Washington had “poisoned the atmosphere for international technological cooperation” through tech export sanctions imposed on China.  Nevertheless, Fu said, combining the resources and manufacturing strengths of the two countries represents the “best way” to achieve a secure future for global AI and artificial general intelligence (AGI).  Regarding China’s AI innovations, Fu said the decision by Chinese AI firms to focus on open source models aligns with China’s philosophy of developing AI technology for public benefit.  During the summit, the head of China’s delegation, Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing, met French President Emmanuel Macron although details of their discussion have not been released.  South China Morning Post

Paris meeting on military AI use emphasizes challenges of interoperability, data access. The Paris AI Action Summit featured a side meeting attended by military officials, defense tech firms, and research institutes for discussions on how the technology is shaping current and future battlefields.  The official meeting agenda featured presentations and roundtables on preparing for coming uses of military AI, the evaluation of AI models, responsible and sustainable policies for AI development, and the opportunities and risks of frontier AI in defense.  It was noted during the discussions that an obstacle to expanded E.U. cooperation in AI for military applications is data access.  Christophe Meyer, the CTO of cortAIx Labs, the AI accelerator in the Thales Group, said the defense AI sector is dealing with “classified data, very, very, very tricky data."  Working with sovereign data, Meyer pointed out, means that “we can't share it as we like."  Another participant, NATO Supreme Allied Commander for Transformation Pierre Vandier, said that the imperatives of modern warfare, as demonstrated in Ukraine, are interoperability and data integration.  These elements, Vanier said, are needed “so that the 32 members can work together with confidence in the data they use, and with rules that are understood by all.”  Euronews

E.U. president commits $50 billion to joint private-public initiative for AI infrastructure.  E.U. President Ursula von der Leyen said in a speech at the Paris AI Action Summit that the Community is considering changes to its support model for AI infrastructure in order to expand developers’ access to computing capacity.  Von der Leyen said AI factories are inadequate to the need and proposed to replace them with “AI Gigafactories” for the training of very large language models (LLM’s).  She said such facilities already are being planned in the U.S. and noted that they require private sector investment.  She drew a distinction with American counterpart facilities, commenting that “unlike similar projects in the U.S., European Gigafactories will ensure that computational power is accessible to all, rather than being monopolized.”  The E.U. leader announced that the Community will invest over $50 billion in AI infrastructure, joining a $150 billion private sector commitment under the InvestAI initiative  She said the combined outlay will be focused “on industrial and mission-critical applications. This will be the largest public-private partnership globally for the development of trustworthy AI.”  Out of the overall InvestAI budget, $20 billion will be committed to AI Gigafactories to promote open, collaborative development of complex AI models.  TechCrunch

OpenAI CEO rejects Musk purchase offer, jokingly counter-offers to buy ‘Twitter’.  OpenAI CEO Sam Altman for the second time in a day has rejected a reported offer by Elon Musk to buy the AI startup for $97.4 billion.  Altman believes Musk is simply trying to gain a competitive edge in the hotly contested sector:  “I wish he would just compete by building a better product, but I think there’s been a lot of tactics, many, many lawsuits, all sorts of other crazy stuff, now this.”  Musk has filed a lawsuit against OpenAI on the grounds that it has abandoned its founding mission.  Altman reflected in an interview at the Paris AI Action Summit“ on Musk’s personality, saying “probably his whole life is from a position of insecurity — I feel for the guy.”  In an interview with Axios, Altman reiterated:  "OpenAI is not for sale. OpenAI's mission is not for sale - to say nothing of the fact that, like, a competitor who is not able to beat us in the market and you know, instead is just trying to say, like, 'I'm gonna buy this" with total disregard for the mission is a likely path there."  Despite Altman’s rejection, the OpenAI board will have some role in responding to Musk’s offer.  Board director Larry Summers said he has not received “any formal communication” from Musk.  Altman first responded to Musk’s offer in an X post:  “No thank you but we will buy twitter for $9.74 billion if you want.”  An attorney for Musk said the purchase offer was backed by Musk’s own AI startup, xAI, and investors including Valor Equity Partners, Baron Capital, Atreides Management, Vy Capital, Joe Lonsdale’s 8VC and media executive Ari Emanuel, through his investment fund.  Bloomberg   Axios

U.S. joined by U.K., Australia in sanctioning LockBit server hosting service. The U.S., Australia, and Britain have sanctioned the Russia-based Zservers hosting service for its support of LockBit ransomware attacks.  In addition, the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) designated two Russian nationals who have been identified as key Zservers administrators.  Zservers provided specialized servers and infrastructure to LockBit, allowing it to evade law enforcement detection.  Bradley Smith, acting Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, explained that “ransomware actors and other cybercriminals rely on third-party network service providers like Zservers to enable their attacks on U.S. and international critical infrastructure.” OFAC credited Canadian authorities with discovering a laptop linked to a Zservers subleased IP address and operating a LockBit malware control panel during a 2022 raid on a known LockBit affiliate.  For its part, the British Foreign Commonwealth Development Office said "BPH (bulletproof hosting) providers like ZSERVERS, protect and enable cybercriminals, offering a range of purchasable tools which mask their locations, identities, and activities. Targeting these providers can disrupt hundreds or thousands of criminals simultaneously."  Cybernews   BleepingComputer

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Brad Christian, Ethan Masucol, Elaine Shannon, Brian Bonner, Ken Hughes & Katharine Campbell and Suzanne Kelly contributed to this report.

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