Report for Wednesday, June 4, 2025

Report for Wednesday, June 4, 2025

• Ukraine launches explosive underwater attack on Crimean bridge
  
  
• Drone Attacks Are the New Front in War. NATO Is Trying to Catch Up
  
  
• Trump to Attend June NATO Summit at The Hague, White House Says
  
  
• International alarms surge as China's critical mineral export ban takes hold
  
  
• One-third of top U.S. cyber force has left since Trump took office

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Why Al Qaeda Refuses to Die. More than two decades after 9/11, Al Qaeda remains a resilient and dangerous force, having evolved into a decentralized "network of networks" embedded within global jihadist movements. The group's survival strategy combines a powerful ideological doctrine of “endless jihad” centered on the afterlife, deep integration with allies like the Taliban, and sophisticated deception tactics that manipulate intelligence efforts. Al Qaeda’s ability to recruit, adapt, and support local insurgents while maintaining strategic coherence across affiliates has allowed it to withstand counterterrorism pressure. Its operations—ranging from propaganda to advanced IED training and cyber activity—continue to inspire and enable extremist violence worldwide. By avoiding reliance on territorial control or material goals and instead promoting a spiritual war beyond time or geography, Al Qaeda has cemented itself as a persistent ideological and operational threat, often underestimated due to its shadowy, embedded nature in conflict zones and allied militant networks. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

Senate confirms Michael Duffy as Pentagon’s chief weapons buyer. The Senate has confirmed Michael Duffey as the Pentagon’s new undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment. A longtime Pentagon official and former associate director at the Office of Management and Budget under President Trump, Duffey now takes charge of the Department of Defense’s weapons procurement at a pivotal time. His role involves overseeing efforts to ramp up munitions production amid the war in Ukraine and accelerate integration of new defense tech startups—tasks critics say are lagging compared to China’s advances in AI, space, and long-range weaponry. Duffey’s confirmation was overshadowed by the “Signalgate” controversy, involving encrypted chats among Trump’s national security team discussing military plans. Duffey denied knowledge of classified discussions on Signal. In his testimony, he stressed streamlining acquisition, improving budget processes, and engaging smaller defense firms to expand the U.S. industrial base. He also faces immediate pressure to support Trump’s $175 billion Golden Dome missile defense initiative. Breaking Defense DefenseScoop RBC-Ukraine

Pentagon taps China expert John Noh as Indo-Pacific point person. President Donald Trump has nominated John Noh, a Korean American official, to serve as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo Pacific Security Affairs, a key role overseeing U.S. defense cooperation with South Korea and regional allies. Noh has already been performing the duties in an acting capacity and was previously Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asia. His background includes serving as deputy general counsel for the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party and working as an attorney specializing in cross-border investigations. Noh holds degrees from Brown University and Stanford Law School. Yonhap News Agency

Source says ‘the president is obsessed’ about Xi call amid floundering trade talks. President Trump is pushing for a direct call with Chinese President Xi Jinping in hopes of resetting faltering U.S.-China trade talks. While White House officials say a call is “likely” this week, skepticism abounds over whether it would yield real progress. Trump believes a personal conversation could break the deadlock, but insiders say Beijing views him as unpredictable, and fears walking into a politically risky encounter. Since agreeing in May to temporarily ease tariffs and resume talks, both sides have accused each other of bad faith—especially over China’s slow restart of rare earth mineral exports and unresolved disputes around fentanyl. Trump’s strategy of high-level diplomacy clashes with China’s top-down political system, where decisions are made collectively and deliberately. Experts warn a rushed leader-to-leader call could harm longer-term negotiations. Meanwhile, mutual distrust lingers, worsened by U.S. export restrictions and Chinese accusations of hypocrisy. Politico

Despite Golden Dome, Space Force budget would shrink again under 2026 spending plan. The Trump administration’s 2026 budget proposal cuts Space Force funding to $26.3 billion—about 13% less than the previous year—despite ambitious plans like the $175 billion Golden Dome missile defense system. This marks a reversal after four years of growth for the service. Experts warn the cuts could hinder key missions like space superiority, unless offset by the pending “One Big Beautiful Bill,” a massive reconciliation package that would inject $150 billion into defense over three years. The reconciliation bill, currently under Senate debate, includes significant allocations for military space—such as $7.2 billion for space-based sensors and $4 billion for classified programs. It also offers a $25 billion "down payment" for Golden Dome, though it’s unclear whether that money will go through the Space Force or a separate channel. Analysts note the administration may be deliberately underfunding Space Force in its main budget while relying on supplemental legislation for high-cost programs—raising concerns over long-term, stable investment in military space operations. Defense One

Wife and five children of suspect in Colorado fire-bombing taken into ICE custody. The family of Mohamed Sabry Soliman, a 45-year-old man charged with attempted murder and a hate crime for attacking a pro-Israel group in Colorado with Molotov cocktails, has been taken into custody by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). The Sunday attack in Boulder injured 12 people. ICE detained Soliman’s wife and five children, including two teenagers and three younger children, on Tuesday. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem raised questions about whether they had prior knowledge or involvement in the act. Soliman claims he acted alone and concealed his plans from his family, and his wife took a phone, which she claimed was her husband’s, to local police after the attack. The family is now being processed for expedited removal, though legal experts argue that may violate federal law if they entered the U.S. legally and have been present for over two years. The White House has indicated that the family could be deported imminently, posting online, “Six One-Way Tickets for Mohamed’s Wife and Five Kids. Final Boarding Call Coming Soon.” Wall Street Journal ReutersAxiosCBS NewsAl Jazeera

DOJ alleges two Chinese researchers smuggled 'potential agroterrorism weapon' into US. U.S. federal prosecutors have charged two Chinese nationals, Zunyong Liu and Yunqing Jian, with smuggling Fusarium graminearum, a dangerous fungus classified as a potential agroterrorism weapon, into the United States. The pathogen, which causes "head blight" in crops like wheat and barley, has led to billions in global agricultural losses. According to the FBI, Liu brought the fungus into the U.S. during a July 2024 visit to Jian, his girlfriend and a researcher at the University of Michigan. The two allegedly conspired to conduct unauthorized research on the fungus in a university lab, violating customs, visa, and biological safety laws. Authorities described their actions as a serious threat to public safety. Jian appeared in a Detroit court on Tuesday, while Liu remains in China. The University of Michigan, nor attorneys for the accused, have not commented, and the investigation is ongoing. ReutersThe GuardianU.S. Department of JusticeAssociated Press

Russian wife of US official denies ‘malicious claims’ of Kremlin links. Yulia Kirillova, the Russian-born wife of senior U.S. State Department official Darren Beattie, has denied allegations suggesting she or her uncle, Sergei Chernikov, have ties to the Kremlin. Beattie, an alt-right media personality and Trump supporter with pro-Kremlin views, was controversially appointed acting undersecretary for public diplomacy in February despite being previously fired for attending a white supremacist rally. Since his appointment, Beattie has dismantled the Counter Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference office, which countered foreign propaganda. Kirillova, who moved to Washington shortly before Beattie's appointment, criticized reports linking her to Kremlin influence as “malicious smears.” She emphasized her longstanding opposition to Putin and clarified that her uncle has had no government role and is in exile following the Kremlin's seizure of his company after a pollution scandal. A senior State Department official dismissed the allegations as baseless tabloid gossip and defended Beattie’s contributions to advancing the Trump administration's foreign policy. The Times

Trump doubles tariffs on steel and aluminum in bid to boost domestic manufacturers. President Donald Trump has doubled U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, citing national security concerns and the need to bolster domestic manufacturing. The new rates took effect at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday and are aimed at helping American producers achieve sustainable production levels critical for defense readiness. Trump justified the hike by stating that the previous tariff levels had failed to sufficiently strengthen U.S. industries. This move intensifies trade tensions as the administration negotiates reciprocal duties with key partners ahead of a July 9 deadline. Notably, the increased tariffs do not apply to the UK for now, as both countries continue talks on alternative arrangements. Mexico has already indicated it will seek an exemption, calling the rise “unsustainable.” Bloomberg New York Times Axios BBC

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine launches explosive underwater attack on Crimean bridge. Ukraine’s underwater strike Tuesday on the Kerch Bridge—Russia’s only direct land link to occupied Crimea—marks the third such attack since 2022 and the most technically sophisticated. The 19-kilometer bridge, a personal project of President Vladimir Putin opened in 2018, serves as a vital logistical artery for Russian forces in southern Ukraine. According to Ukraine’s SBU intelligence agency, 1,100 kilograms of TNT were detonated at the base of an underwater support pillar, putting the bridge in an “emergency state.” Defense Express suggests the explosives were likely delivered via an unmanned Marichka underwater drone, capable of carrying large payloads over 1,000 kilograms. Prior attacks in October 2022 (truck bomb) and July 2023 (maritime drones) prompted Russia to increase defenses, including underwater barriers and air defense systems. However, the success of this latest operation—possibly involving stealth navigation around acoustic sensors—demonstrates Ukraine’s advancing capability to strike critical infrastructure far behind enemy lines. Russia closed traffic on the bridge twice on Tuesday, Interfax reported. However, after several hours of closure, authorities announced that the span had reopened. Politico EUNew York TimesReutersDefense ExpressBloomberg

Russia and Ukraine Ratchet Up War While Trying to Show Trump They Want Peace. Despite peace talks in Istanbul on Monday, Russia and Ukraine continue to escalate their war. The one-hour meeting yielded only a prisoner-exchange agreement, while both sides launched aggressive strikes. Ukraine’s drone attacks reportedly damaged or destroyed over 40 Russian aircraft and struck the Kerch Bridge linking Crimea to Russia. Russia retaliated with waves of missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities. President Trump, who has vowed to end the war but offered no clear strategy, has shown limited engagement. Analysts suggest that his reluctance to pressure Moscow or increase military aid weakens the chances for peace. Ukraine hopes to leverage drone warfare to offset declining U.S. support. Russia’s demands, including territorial concessions and neutrality, remain maximalist. As the war intensifies, bipartisan U.S. senators plan new sanctions targeting Russian energy sales. But for now, diplomacy is stalled and the battlefield remains central. Wall Street Journal

Russian forces advance on the major city of Sumy. Russian forces are making steady advances in Ukraine’s northern Sumy region, bringing the city of Sumy within range of artillery and drones. Despite Ukraine’s recent bold strikes—including damaging Russian aircraft and a key bridge to Crimea—Moscow has intensified ground assaults and reinforced the front with airborne brigades. Ukrainian officials report Russian control of a 15-kilometer-wide front and advances near Yunakivka, just 20 kilometers from Sumy. Nearly 150 strikes hit 47 settlements in one day, with four civilians killed in a rocket strike on Sumy city. Analysts warn Ukraine lacks troops and struggles to counter Russia’s fiber-optic drones. The offensive aims to establish a buffer zone or possibly seize Sumy, although dense forests may hinder a full capture. Nonetheless, Russia’s actions threaten to pin down Ukrainian forces and prevent their redeployment elsewhere. CNN

Troop Casualties in Ukraine War Near 1.4 Million, Study Finds. A new study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates nearly 1.4 million troop casualties in the Ukraine war—around 1 million Russian and nearly 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed or wounded since Russia’s 2022 invasion. The study highlights the slow pace of Russian territorial gains, with less than 1% seized since January 2024, and describes the campaign as one of the slowest in modern warfare. Russia has sustained troop levels through mass conscription, recruiting felons, and even enlisting 10,000 North Korean troops. New York Times

Kremlin Douses Imminent Putin Meeting with Trump and Zelensky. The Kremlin dismissed the likelihood of a near-term summit between Presidents Vladimir Putin, Donald Trump, and Volodymyr Zelensky, despite Turkey's proposal following inconclusive peace talks in Istanbul on Monday. While Trump is open to the idea, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said any such meeting must be well-prepared. At the talks, Russia demanded Ukraine surrender territory, adopt neutrality, and accept limits on its military and foreign aid—terms Kyiv rejected. A new prisoner exchange was discussed, but no ceasefire was reached. Bloomberg

Hegseth to skip Ukraine meeting at NATO headquarters. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth will skip Thursday’s Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) meeting at NATO headquarters, marking the first absence by a U.S. defense chief since the group’s 2022 inception. The Trump administration has handed leadership of the monthly Ukraine aid coordination meetings to the U.K. and Germany, signaling a broader pullback from European defense collaboration. Hegseth will still attend a separate NATO defense ministers meeting the next day, but U.S. ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker will represent Washington at the UDCG. The Pentagon cited scheduling conflicts. The Trump administration is continuing to ship weapons and equipment to Ukraine under a $61 billion aid package established by former President Joe Biden. Politico EUAssociated Press

Medvedev says Russia seeks victory, not compromise, in talks with Ukraine. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, declared Tuesday on Telegram that Russia’s goal in the Istanbul peace talks with Ukraine is not compromise but total victory. He said the purpose is to “ensure our swift victory and the complete destruction of the neo-Nazi regime,” referring to Ukraine. Medvedev cited a Russian memorandum presented at the talks, which demanded more Ukrainian territory, stricter military limits, neutrality, and new elections. In response to Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian bomber bases, he warned that “retribution is inevitable” and vowed continued military escalation. Reuters

Russia’s ballistic missile production is up at least 66% over the past year, according to Ukrainian intelligence. Russia has ramped up its ballistic missile production, increasing output by at least 66% over the past year, according to Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR). Monthly production now includes 60–70 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 10–15 Kinzhal hypersonic missiles—up from 40 and 4–5 respectively a year ago. These increases give Russia a current stockpile of nearly 600 Iskander-Ms and over 100 Kinzhals, posing a growing threat as Ukrainian Patriot air defense missiles dwindle. Russia has reportedly enhanced its Iskander missiles with radar decoys and unpredictable flight paths, thereby reducing the success of interception. HUR additionally reports a Russian stockpile of 60 North Korean KN-23s, which carry heavier warheads. Cruise missile production has also expanded, including Kalibr, X-101, Onyx, and Zircon models. Ukraine’s June 1 drone attack on Russian airbases may have hindered some of these launch capabilities. Meanwhile, Ukraine is producing its own missiles, but Russian strikes on its industrial facilities constrain output. Kyiv Independent

Inside the Ukrainian Drone Operation That Devastated Russia’s Bomber Fleet. Ukraine’s unprecedented drone strike on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet on June 1 was the result of a bold operation combining long-range planning, covert infiltration, and homegrown technology. At President Volodymyr Zelensky’s request, Security Service of Ukraine chief Lt. Gen. Vasyl Maliuk orchestrated the mission, smuggling drone parts into Russia and assembling them in secret. Operatives concealed quadcopters inside the roofs of wooden containers mounted on trucks, remotely opening them near key airfields. Over 100 drones—likely Osa quadcopters from Ukrainian firm First Contact—targeted bombers at four air bases, including Belaya and Olenya. Ukraine claims 41 aircraft were hit, though analysts confirm 12. Damaged planes, like the rare A-50 and Soviet-era Tu-95s, are difficult to replace and could cripple Russian airstrike capabilities for months. The operation relied on deception, local logistics support, and detailed targeting of fuel tanks to ignite fires. Zelensky hailed the attack as a powerful message that Russia is not safe, undermining Moscow’s narrative of military superiority. Wall Street Journal

Satellite imagery shows the destroyed and damaged Russian bombers. Satellite imagery from Capella Space confirms that Ukraine's June 1 drone strike on Russia’s Belaya air base in Irkutsk destroyed or damaged several strategic bombers. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, which penetrate cloud cover, show debris consistent with the destruction of at least two Tu-22 Backfires and up to four Tu-95 heavy bombers, according to analysts from the James Martin Center and open-source expert Brady Africk. The grainy SAR images reveal aircraft remnants along runways and in revetments. Despite Russia’s use of decoy aircraft, Ukrainian drones accurately targeted real bombers. Separate drone footage from Olenya airbase in Murmansk also showed burning Tu-95s. Ukrainian officials claim the operation, dubbed "Spider’s Web," hit 41 warplanes across multiple bases, damaging a significant share of Russia’s cruise missile carriers. The attack is expected to prompt Russia to reassess its air defense strategy, although experts caution that it may not deter future bomber-based missile strikes. Reuters

‘An epic failure’: Russia reels from surprise Ukrainian attack on bomber fleet. Ukraine’s audacious drone attack on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet has left Moscow reeling, exposing deep vulnerabilities in its military infrastructure. The operation, planned over 18 months, struck airfields thousands of kilometers from Ukraine and damaged or destroyed up to 20% of Russia’s operational long-range bombers—aircraft vital for launching mass strikes, yet irreplaceable due to discontinued production. Satellite imagery and expert analysis confirm that Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers were hit, dealing both an operational and symbolic blow. Analysts call it an “epic failure” for Russia’s military, which failed to protect high-value assets adequately. The attack has sparked outrage in pro-war Russian circles and may force a shift in air defense strategy, including dispersing aircraft, which would hinder future mass air raids. While unlikely to significantly alter Russia’s nuclear posture, the raid shattered assumptions about the safety of Russia’s interior, signaling Kyiv’s ability to strike deep and reshape the strategic calculus of the war. Financial Times

How many years and billions Russia will need to restore its losses. Ukraine’s Operation Spider’s Web, which destroyed around one-third of Russia’s strategic cruise missile carriers, has inflicted losses far beyond the immediate $7 billion estimate, according to Defense Express. The true cost lies in the extraordinary difficulty of replacing these bombers—Tu-160s, Tu-95MSMs, and Tu-22M3s. Since Russia hasn’t built a new strategic bomber from scratch in decades, rebuilding requires reviving or expanding outdated, slow-moving production lines. Only two Tu-160M2s have been assembled since 2022 using old Soviet airframes. Tu-95s are no longer manufactured, and the Tu-22M3 fleet is aging and only partially operational. Russia’s next-generation PAK DA bomber remains in development limbo, with no flying prototype and full production possibly 10 to 20 years away. If Russia were to build new aircraft, unit costs, factoring in development, could easily reach $2 billion per bomber, similar to the U.S. B-2 Spirit program. Replacing even a portion of the destroyed fleet could thus require tens of billions of dollars and many years, with no guarantee of success. Defense Express

The game plan of Zelensky's powerful chief of staff. Andriy Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, has quietly become one of the most powerful figures in Ukraine—central to wartime governance and diplomacy. Once a lawyer and B-movie producer, Yermak now serves as Zelenskyy’s gatekeeper, strategist, and lead emissary in talks with the U.S. and Europe. Critics accuse him of consolidating power, orchestrating cabinet purges, and sidelining former allies to monopolize influence. In Washington this week, Yermak aims to press Trump’s administration for stronger sanctions against Russia, leveraging recent air raids to highlight Ukraine’s vulnerability. Though fiercely loyal to Zelenskyy, some suspect Yermak harbors political ambitions, though he publicly denies any intent to succeed his boss. His centralization of authority has drawn concern from reform advocates and Western partners, who are wary of institutional erosion. Yet allies credit him with vital wartime coordination and strategic wins, making Yermak a decisive, if controversial, figure in Ukraine’s survival and its evolving relationship with the West. Politico EU

Zelensky aides visit the US as Ukraine strikes Russian-held territory. Senior Ukrainian officials, including President Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, and Deputy Prime Minister Yuliia Svrydenko, arrived in Washington on Tuesday to rally U.S. support amid intensifying hostilities. Their key goals are to secure stronger defense aid, press for tougher sanctions against Russia, and advance a U.S.-Ukraine deal that grants preferential access to Ukrainian mineral projects and a reconstruction investment fund. Yermak emphasized that Ukraine’s agenda is “comprehensive,” focusing on battlefield needs, sanctions, and long-term economic ties. The visit follows stalled peace talks in Istanbul and comes as Ukraine demonstrates its resilience through major strikes on Russian-held territory, including a hit on the Kerch Bridge. Reuters

Zelensky announces military shakeup, new assignment for commander who resigned.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a military leadership shakeup Tuesday aimed at enhancing frontline combat focus. Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi, who had offered to resign following a deadly Russian strike on a training site, was reassigned as Commander of Joint Forces. Zelensky said Drapatyi would now concentrate solely on combat operations. Other key appointments included Oleh Apostol as commander of paratroopers, Robert Brovdi for unmanned systems, Vadym Sukharevskyi as head of Eastern Operational Command, and Ihor Skybiuk as Deputy Chief of the General Staff—part of a broader push to modernize Ukraine’s defense. A Russian missile strike on Sunday hit Ukraine’s 239th military training ground, killing 12 soldiers and injuring 60 others. Reuters

Power is restored to 700,000 residents in Russian-held Ukraine after Ukrainian strikes. Power was restored to at least 700,000 residents in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine on Tuesday, following large-scale Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes that damaged key substations in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Russian officials said it was one of the most extensive attacks of its kind since the war began. Emergency crews from other regions completed the repairs. Ukraine has not commented, but the strikes came amid ongoing peace talks in Turkey, where Russia demanded major territorial concessions. Reuters

Orban vows to 'do everything' to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban publicly opposed Ukraine’s future European Union membership in a Facebook post on Tuesday, vowing to “do everything” to block it. He criticized EU leaders for backing Ukraine’s accession, calling it a “fever dream” driven by political desperation and economic self-interest. Orban argued that Ukraine’s membership would harm Hungarian and broader European interests, claiming it would drain financial resources from European families and industries. His government also launched a non-binding public poll on the issue, which was criticized for its low turnout and biased wording. Hungary has already blocked Kyiv’s accession negotiations and suspended bilateral talks following Ukraine’s exposure of a Hungarian spy ring in May. Kyiv Independent

Kamikaze UGVs could deliver massive FAB-500 bombs into Russian hideouts. Captain Oleksandr Yabchanka, head of robotic systems for Ukraine’s Da Vinci Wolves Battalion, highlighted the growing battlefield role of kamikaze Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs). In an interview, he suggested these systems could one day deliver massive Soviet-era FAB-500 bombs directly into Russian trenches—targets often inaccessible to aerial drones. Currently, UGVs typically carry 40-kilogram payloads, already producing devastating effects on enemy dugouts. Yabchanka sees potential in scaling up payloads for greater impact. He also praised UGVs’ resilience, citing their success in resupply missions despite mine blasts and drone attacks. Ground robots, he argued, are becoming as vital as airborne drones in Ukraine’s evolving war doctrine. Defense Express

What is known about the new Russian glide bomb with a 95-kilometer range.Russia has begun deploying the UMPK-PD, an extended-range glide bomb capable of reaching up to 95 kilometers, 15–35 kilometers farther than standard UMPK munitions. First seen in March 2025 on Su-34 bombers, the UMPK-PD features larger wings, reinforced mounts, and advanced guidance systems. Its increased range allows Russian pilots to strike deeper into Ukraine while staying further from air defenses. To counter Ukrainian electronic warfare, Russia equips these bombs with Kometa-M satellite modules featuring up to 12 antenna elements. Despite their improved range, accuracy remains limited, and many strikes target civilian areas, reinforcing the weapon’s role as a low-cost psychological warfare tool. Defense Express

What problems the new anti-drone system will solve for Ukraine. Ukraine is set to receive two Wolf 25 AD self-propelled anti-aircraft systems, designed to counter threats from fiber-optic FPV drones and Lancet loitering munitions targeting artillery and command units. Developed by Deftech, the system features a 25mm Oerlikon KBA cannon, airburst munitions, smoke launchers, and 360-degree radar coverage. Its detection range includes up to 10 km for Lancets and 5 km for small drones. Mounted on a mine-resistant MRAP chassis, it integrates thermal optics and underwent successful live-fire trials before its IDET 2025 debut. If battlefield testing in Ukraine proves effective, further procurement is likely. Defense Express

Britain pledges to deliver 100,000 drones to Ukraine by April 2026. Britain has pledged to deliver 100,000 drones to Ukraine by April 2026—a tenfold increase—as part of a £350 million ($473 million) package within its broader £4.5 billion military aid effort. The UK, citing drones’ transformative impact on modern warfare, is also sending 140,000 artillery shells and allocating £247 million for troop training. Defense Secretary John Healey will announce the aid at a Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in Brussels. ReutersKyiv Independent

Britain’s in a legal minefield as it tries to hand Abramovich billions to Ukraine. The U.K. government is threatening legal action to seize £2.5 billion from sanctioned Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich—the proceeds from the sale of Chelsea Football Club in 2022—to aid Ukraine. However, legal experts say the effort is unlikely to succeed, as the funds remain Abramovich’s property despite being frozen. British law lacks a clear mechanism to confiscate such assets without consent or a criminal conviction. Sanctions lawyers argue the government’s tough rhetoric lacks legal substance, with frozen assets legally unusable for either side’s purposes. While the U.K. has frozen around £24 billion in Russian assets, it—like the European Union—has only utilized interest earned, wary of legal and financial backlash from outright seizures. PoliticoAssociated Press

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Tuesday, June 3. Kremlin officials openly stated that Russia’s goal is the destruction of Ukraine, rejecting the idea of compromise and exposing the futility of current peace talks. Ukraine’s Security Service detonated explosives under the Kerch Strait Bridge for the third time, critically damaging its structure and disrupting Russia’s logistics link to Crimea. Western and Ukrainian sources continue to assess that Ukraine’s June 1 “Spider Web” drone operation likely damaged or destroyed up to 20 Russian strategic aircraft, including bombers and AEW&C planes. Russia has stockpiled over 13,000 missiles and continues producing 150–200 per month, underscoring its intent to sustain large-scale strikes and prepare for prolonged war.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced in Kursk Oblast while Russian troops gained ground near Kurakhove. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

Drone Attacks Are the New Front in War. NATO Is Trying to Catch Up. The surge in drone warfare between Ukraine and Russia has highlighted a new era of conflict and exposed the vulnerability of major military powers, including NATO members. Ukraine’s recent drone offensive deep inside Russia damaged key air bases, while Russia has launched thousands of cheap, long-range drones to saturate Ukrainian defenses. These developments have prompted urgent reassessments in NATO, where officials admit they lag behind in adapting to fast-evolving drone threats and hybrid warfare. Experts warn that outdated assumptions, unprotected military infrastructure, and slow weapons production in the West pose serious strategic risks. Britain’s new defense review calls for massive investment in drones, echoing Ukrainian President Zelensky’s plea for more funding to scale up domestic production. With Russia spending over 7% of its GDP on defense and flooding Ukraine with drones daily, the conflict has become a proving ground for drone-centric warfare — one that Western militaries are struggling to keep pace with. New York Times

NATO Is Pushing Europeans for Fivefold Boost to Air Defenses. NATO is urging European members to expand ground-based air-defense capabilities fivefold amid rising concerns over Russian aggression, with plans to formalize the push at a defense ministers’ meeting in Brussels. The initiative is part of a broader strategy to boost defense spending to 5% of GDP, encouraged by U.S. President Donald Trump. Germany, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is poised to lead European Union joint air defense efforts, investing billions in systems such as the European Sky Shield. The move follows years of underinvestment and depleted stockpiles due to aid sent to Ukraine. NATO warns that current air defenses are inadequate to protect against modern threats such as drones, missiles, and fighter aircraft. Bloomberg

Trump to Attend June NATO Summit at The Hague, White House Says. U.S. President Donald Trump will attend the NATO summit in The Hague on June 24–25, the White House confirmed on Tuesday. Trump aims to push alliance members to boost defense spending to 5% of GDP, 3.5% on core defense and 1.5% on related areas like infrastructure and cyber defense. The summit will also focus on expanding ground-based air defenses. The meeting follows the G7 summit in Canada and is expected to address ongoing Ukraine-Russia peace efforts, which Trump supports resolving through negotiations. BloombergFrance 24

Starmer Weighs UK Military Request to Back 3.5% NATO Spend Goal. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is weighing a Ministry of Defence request to support NATO’s proposed military spending target of 3.5% of GDP by 2032, as well as an additional 1.5% for related security projects. Currently, the UK spends about 2.3%, with Starmer pledging to raise it to 2.5% by 2027 and aiming for 3% by 2034. Defense officials warn that rejecting the higher target could weaken Britain’s leadership role in NATO amid U.S. pressure for European allies to increase spending. While Starmer’s team emphasizes the UK’s strong NATO commitment, he has declined to set firm deadlines, citing fiscal constraints. Discussions with the Ministry of Defence are ongoing ahead of the upcoming NATO summit. Bloomberg

NATO's Baltic drills are part of preparations for a potential clash with Russia, TASS reports. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko told TASS that NATO’s annual BALTOPS drills in the Baltic Sea appear to be preparations for a potential military confrontation with Russia. He cited the exercises’ scale, structure, and objectives as evidence that they are designed to counter a "comparable adversary." Reuters

Dutch Government Falls After Far-Right Party Quits Coalition. The Dutch government collapsed on June 3 after far-right leader Geert Wilders withdrew his Freedom Party (PVV) from the ruling coalition, citing his partners’ refusal to back his hardline asylum plan. Wilders demanded immediate adoption of a ten-point migration policy, including closing borders and repatriating Syrian refugees. When rejected, he pulled PVV ministers and triggered snap elections, expected as early as September. Prime Minister Dick Schoof submitted his resignation but will remain in a caretaker role. Coalition partners and opposition leaders condemned Wilders' move as reckless and self-serving. The collapse destabilizes Dutch politics ahead of the June 24–25 NATO summit in The Hague, where major defense commitments are expected. The right-leaning coalition, formed after PVV’s 2023 election win, struggled with internal tensions, and polls now show declining support for all government parties. The outcome will likely reshape Dutch politics, with immigration remaining the central campaign issue. BloombergFinancial TimesPolitico EUThe EconomistAssociated Press

EU’s top Russian LNG buyers refuse to back Brussels’ gas ban. France and Belgium, the European Union’s top importers of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG), are withholding support for Brussels' proposed ban on Russian gas, citing legal and economic uncertainties. France prefers a diversification strategy, relying on a long-term Qatari LNG deal, while Belgium seeks an impact assessment before backing the proposal. In contrast, Spain and the Netherlands support the plan, which would ban short-term Russian LNG purchases in 2025 and phase out long-term contracts by 2027. The four nations accounted for 97% of EU Russian LNG imports last year, spending over €6 billion. Their support is crucial for the EU’s strategy to sever energy ties with Moscow. Politico EU

Confidence vote in Tusk’s Polish government set for June 11. Poland’s parliament will hold a vote of confidence on June 11 after nationalist Karol Nawrocki, backed by the opposition Law and Justice Party (PiS), narrowly won the presidency over the ruling coalition’s candidate, Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the vote following Nawrocki’s surprise win, which threatens to obstruct his agenda due to the president’s veto power. Despite this, Tusk asserted that the election result “changes nothing,” framing the vote as a show of unity. His coalition holds 242 of 460 seats, making it likely to survive the confidence vote. Politico EU

Europeans map out Pacific aims as some in the US want them to stay home. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, European defense leaders emphasized their growing interest in the Indo-Pacific, despite signals from the U.S. under President Trump urging them to refocus on continental defense. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth acknowledged limited European roles in Asia may deter China, but reiterated Washington’s preference for Europe to handle more of its own security. French President Emmanuel Macron defended Europe’s strategic presence in Asia, framing Ukraine’s war as linked to global security, including Taiwan. While Finland and Sweden acknowledged limits on military engagement in Asia, they emphasized defense cooperation, intelligence sharing, and support for Ukraine. Indo-Pacific nations, such as New Zealand and South Korea, echoed similar views, with New Zealand pledging increased defense spending and continuing to train Ukrainian troops. The summit highlighted growing transregional security links even as geopolitical priorities between allies diverge under changing U.S. leadership. Defense News

Expanding missile threats and airspace closures are straining airlines. Airlines are facing mounting challenges and costs due to the growing number of global conflict zones, which are causing airspace closures, rerouting, and heightened security concerns. Conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and between India and Pakistan have compelled airlines to adjust their routes, resulting in increased fuel consumption, emissions, and travel times. Drone threats, missile activity, GPS jamming, and even aircraft shoot-downs—like the Azerbaijan Airlines incident in Kazakhstan, shot down accidentally by Russian air defenses—have heightened risks. The aviation industry is pushing for better global coordination and intelligence sharing, but decisions still fall on individual airlines navigating a patchwork of safety guidelines. Flight crews are voicing concern, and pilots can refuse risky assignments, though commercial pressures may influence airline policies. Reuters

Belarus leader Lukashenko is in Beijing for a meeting with Xi. Chinese President Xi Jinping met with President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus on Wednesday in Beijing, according to the official Xinhua news agency, as the two "all-weather" partners sought to deepen their strategic ties and cooperation. Lukashenko's visit to Beijing was his first to the Chinese capital since he was declared the winner of a presidential election in January, extending his 31-year rule of the former Soviet republic. Reuters

China rejects Dutch minister's spying accusation, says tech achievements not 'stolen.’ China rejected accusations by Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans that it has intensified espionage, particularly targeting semiconductor technology. In response, China’s foreign ministry denied that its scientific and technological progress is based on stolen intellectual property and condemned the allegations as smear tactics. The Dutch military intelligence agency had previously reported an increase in Chinese spying on the Netherlands’ semiconductor, aerospace, and maritime sectors. Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iranian leader rejects White House’s nuclear proposal, pledges to continue enriching uranium. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has firmly rejected a key U.S. demand to end uranium enrichment, calling it “100% against” Tehran’s interests. His comments, made on Wednesday during a televised speech, came after Washington proposed a new nuclear deal via Oman, which is mediating ongoing talks. Despite five rounds of negotiations, major disagreements remain. While Khamenei did not signal an end to the talks, he blasted American leaders as “rude and arrogant,” and condemned the White House’s approach as incompatible with Iran’s values of self-reliance. ReutersTimes of IsraelAl Jazeera

Any Trump deal with Iran must tackle nuclear watchdog's blind spots. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has lost key oversight of Iran’s nuclear program, especially since the U.S. exited the 2015 nuclear deal under President Trump. Last year, U.N. inspectors observed trucks delivering IR-6 centrifuges to Iran’s Fordow site, but could not trace their origin, highlighting serious intelligence gaps. The IAEA no longer has access to surveillance footage, snap inspections, or full knowledge of Iran’s centrifuge production and uranium stockpiles. Despite ongoing talks between Washington and Tehran to renew restrictions, Iran has rejected demands to halt enrichment or export its enriched uranium. The country is now enriching uranium to 60%—near weapons-grade—and has enough material for about nine bombs, according to the IAEA. Sources say that a new deal would need to rebuild oversight and establish a “baseline” of Iran’s nuclear activities, though some knowledge may be unrecoverable. The IAEA cannot currently confirm that Iran’s program is peaceful, raising concerns over long-term nuclear proliferation risks. Reuters

Iran could accept nuclear consortium on its soil, Iranian official says. Iran has expressed openness to a U.S. proposal for a regional uranium enrichment consortium, provided it is located within Iran, according to a senior Iranian official. The idea, part of White House envoy Steve Witkoff’s latest proposal, seeks to bridge the U.S. demand that Iran not enrich uranium independently with Iran’s insistence on continuing enrichment on its soil. While Iran rejected the idea of hosting the consortium abroad, its response suggests potential room for negotiation. The proposed consortium would theoretically include regional players like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Turkey, and be monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It aims to supply nuclear fuel for civilian use while curbing Iran’s enrichment capabilities. Under the plan, Iran would temporarily reduce enrichment to 3%, suspend underground enrichment, and limit above-ground activity. AxiosNew York Times

Israeli military strikes Syrian sites after projectile launches. A previously unknown group calling itself the Mohammed Deif Brigades has claimed responsibility for launching two rockets from Syria into areas of the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Tuesday, though its authenticity remains unverified. The incident marks the first such attack from Syrian territory since the fall of leader Bashar Assad late last year. Israel acted swiftly, shelling areas in Syria’s southern Daraa province and reportedly conducting airstrikes near Quneitra. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said he held Syria’s new president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, “directly responsible,” and warned of a forthcoming full response. Syria’s foreign ministry denied responsibility and condemned the Israeli strikes, citing significant casualties and damage. Tensions have risen since the Islamist-led government took power in Damascus, with Israel conducting frequent airstrikes and expanding control over a buffer zone. Meanwhile, the U.S. has softened its stance on Syria, lifting some sanctions and encouraging normalization with Israel. Associated PressReuters BBCAl JazeeraThe Guardian

US to cut back military bases in Syria, envoy says. The U.S. will reduce its military presence in Syria from eight bases to one, signaling a major policy shift, according to Thomas Barrack, the newly appointed U.S. special envoy. Barrack, who is also the ambassador to Turkey, stated in an interview that past U.S. strategies in Syria have failed and that a new approach is needed. Washington currently has around 2,000 troops in Syria, primarily in the northeast, supporting Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in efforts to prevent an ISIS resurgence. Military equipment is already being withdrawn from bases in Deir el-Zor and consolidated in Hasakah. Barrack underscored the importance of integrating the SDF into Syria’s new government under President Ahmad al-Sharaa. While the SDF remains a key U.S. partner, Turkey, which sees the group as linked to the PKK, has criticized its slow progress in integrating with Syria’s official military. ReutersAl Jazeera

Iran looking to turn 'new page' in relations with Lebanon. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi visited Lebanon on Tuesday, signaling a potential shift in his country’s long-standing relationship with Beirut. Traditionally defined by Tehran’s support for Hezbollah, the alliance appears to be evolving as Araqchi emphasized a desire to "turn a new page" based on mutual respect and non-interference. His visit comes as Hezbollah’s influence wanes following months of Israeli strikes and the rise of a new Lebanese government with reduced Hezbollah presence. During meetings with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi, Araqchi invited Salam to Iran and discussed sensitive issues, including state control over arms—an indirect nod to Hezbollah’s weaponry. Notably, Araqchi avoided referencing Hezbollah in public remarks, a departure from past Iranian rhetoric. The visit follows strained episodes, including diplomatic disputes and Iran’s temporary ban on Lebanese repatriation flights earlier this year. The developments suggest Iran may be recalibrating its approach to Lebanon’s shifting political landscape. ReutersAssociated Press

Gaza aid group to pause distribution on June 4, as UN preps to vote on ceasefire demand. The U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) suspended aid distribution on Wednesday, demanding that Israel improve safety measures around its sites after Israeli fire near a food aid location killed at least 27 Palestinians and wounded 90 on Tuesday. GHF urged the Israeli military to manage civilian foot traffic, clarify safety guidelines, and bolster training to reduce risks. The Israeli army warned civilians to avoid GHF areas, labeling them "combat zones." The incident has intensified criticism of the GHF's distribution model, which relies on U.S. private security and has been rejected by the U.N. and other aid groups for lacking neutrality and militarizing aid. Despite distributing over seven million meals since launching last week, GHF faces mounting pressure amid fears of famine in Gaza. Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council is preparing to vote on a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire and unrestricted humanitarian access. ReutersAl JazeeraBBCWall Street Journal

Syrian national given life sentence in Germany for war crimes. A German court has sentenced a 33-year-old Syrian man to life in prison for crimes against humanity and war crimes committed during Syria’s civil war. The man, whose name was not disclosed, was found guilty of leading a Hezbollah-backed militia that carried out violent attacks against Sunni Muslim civilians in Busra al-Sham in 2013 and 2014. The court determined he was involved in the torture of civilians, including handing detainees over to Syrian military intelligence and forcibly displacing families. Germany applied its universal jurisdiction laws, which allow prosecution of grave international crimes regardless of where they occurred. The case follows similar German prosecutions of Syrian war criminals and reflects Berlin’s active legal stance on justice for atrocities committed in Syria. ReutersDeutsche WelleFrance 24

ASIA & OCEANIA

International alarms surge as China's critical mineral export ban takes hold. Global concern is mounting over China’s suspension of rare earth mineral and magnet exports, with automakers, airplane manufacturers, and governments warning of looming production halts. German car makers joined their U.S., Indian, and Japanese counterparts in sounding the alarm, saying the disruption threatens supply chains vital to vehicle production and other industries. China, which dominates global production of rare earth materials, halted exports in April amid escalating trade tensions with U.S. President Trump. The export freeze—widely viewed as economic leverage—has left shipments stalled at Chinese ports while export licenses undergo regulatory review. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to discuss the issue soon, with American officials accusing Beijing of violating trade agreements. Industry leaders, including GM and Volkswagen, warn that without access to these critical materials, essential components for cars and other technologies could face shortages. Diplomats from Europe, India, and Japan are urgently seeking talks with Beijing to prevent widespread manufacturing delays. ReutersNew York TimesNew York TimesWall Street Journal

China Really Wants to Attract Talented Scientists. Trump Just Helped. China is increasingly benefiting from U.S. policies that are pushing scientists—especially those of Chinese descent—away from American institutions. The Trump administration’s cuts to research funding, suspicion toward Chinese scholars, and visa restrictions are accelerating a brain drain that China is eager to exploit. Prestigious institutions like Westlake University in Hangzhou are luring top researchers with competitive salaries, modern facilities, and generous government-backed perks. China’s scientific rise is part of a broader plan to become a global leader in key technologies, and its investments are beginning to pay off. Between 2010 and 2021, nearly 12,500 scientists of Chinese descent left the U.S. for China, with the pace accelerating in recent years. For some, rising nationalism in the U.S. has made returning to China not only feasible but preferable. New York Times

Beijing bristles as Rubio hails bravery of Chinese people killed in Tiananmen Square crackdown. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio honored the victims of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre on its 36th anniversary, praising the bravery of those who died demanding democratic freedoms. Rubio condemned the Chinese Communist Party’s continued censorship of the event, saying the world would not forget the crackdown, which killed an unknown number of protesters—potentially thousands, according to rights groups. Taiwan marked the event, with President Lai Ching-te vowing to preserve the memory of victims. Australia also noted the anniversary, asserting its commitment to safeguarding and supporting human rights. On Wednesday, the Chinese foreign ministry slammed Rubio’s comments, accusing Washington of having "distorted" historical facts. The Tiananmen anniversary remains a taboo subject in China but is commemorated abroad, and Rubio framed the remembrance as a reaffirmation of universal democratic principles that defy censorship. ReutersBloombergReutersReutersFrance 24

Leaked files reveal how China is using AI to erase the history of the Tiananmen Square massacre. Leaked internal documents have exposed the vast and evolving scale of China’s censorship apparatus, particularly in efforts to erase public memory of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Shared with Australia’s ABC by industry insiders, the documents reveal detailed censorship protocols used by Chinese social media platforms like Douyin, including AI-powered content filtering and human moderation overseen by the Cyberspace Administration of China. Symbolic references, even abstract ones, are flagged, especially near the June 4 anniversary. Human censors face intense scrutiny, heavy workloads, and severe consequences for errors, often leading to burnout and emotional distress. The AI systems are trained on violent imagery and politically sensitive content to detect dissent, creating concerns about long-term historical erasure. Experts warn that such filtered data could distort global AI models. Despite China’s tightening control, however, some former censors believe creative expression will continue to challenge automated suppression. Australian Broadcasting Corporation

South Korea elects Lee Jae-myung as president, new leader vows economic revival, judgment on martial law. South Korea’s newly elected President Lee Jae-myung, a liberal reformist who survived an assassination attempt last year, has pledged to rebuild the nation after the turmoil caused by former President Yoon Suk Yeol’s failed martial law attempt. Winning 49.42% of the vote in Tuesday’s snap election, Lee, 61, inherits a country facing deep political scars and significant economic headwinds, including U.S. protectionism and a struggling middle class. In his inaugural address, Lee promised pro-market reforms, deregulation, and renewed efforts for peace with a bellicose North Korea, while maintaining the U.S. alliance. His victory sparked a surge in South Korean stocks, especially in finance and renewable energy. Lee must now quickly negotiate with President Trump over U.S. tariffs on Korean exports and manage sensitive relations with China and Japan. Though leaning toward a more conciliatory stance on regional tensions, Lee emphasized economic revitalization and democratic resilience as key priorities for his presidency. Yonhap News AgencyReutersWall Street JournalNew York TimesReuters

White House calls South Korea election 'fair,' expresses concern about Chinese influence. The White House has affirmed that South Korea’s recent presidential election, won by liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung, was “free and fair”, though it voiced concern about potential Chinese interference in democracies worldwide. While no direct link to the South Korean election was made, the comment fueled suspicion among some of President Trump’s right-wing allies, who have criticized Lee's moderate stance toward China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry rejected the interference claims, accusing Washington of stirring tensions. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio congratulated Lee and reiterated the strength of the U.S.-South Korea alliance. Meanwhile, conservative figures like Laura Loomer echoed unsubstantiated fraud claims similar to Trump-era rhetoric, although Lee’s opponent conceded the election promptly. Analysts suggest Lee’s views on China and Taiwan may cause unease in Washington, with his foreign policy likely to be closely watched. ReutersKorea Herald

North Korea pulls capsized warship upright after botched launch, report says. North Korea has managed to upright its 5,000-ton Choe Hyon-class destroyer, which partially capsized during a failed launch on May 21, 2025. Satellite imagery from June 2 shows the vessel upright at the Chongjin port, although its bow remains on land with potential damage to the sonar section. Workers reportedly used manual methods, including tethers and possibly barrage balloons, to reposition the ship. Despite this progress, the ship still requires significant repairs that involve moving it to a drydock—an infrastructure lacking at the Chongjin shipyard, which primarily handles cargo and fishing vessels and lacks the capacity to support large warship construction. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, who witnessed the failed launch, criticized the incident for damaging national pride and ordered those responsible to be punished. Several officials have been detained, and Kim has mandated the ship's restoration before an upcoming ruling party meeting Reuters

AFRICA

Five killed in attack on UN food convoy heading to Sudan hunger hot spot, UN says. Five Sudanese aid contractors were killed and several others injured in an attack on a UN aid convoy in Sudan’s Darfur region, the UN reported on Tuesday. The convoy, carrying food and nutrition supplies from Port Sudan to the besieged city of el-Fasher, was struck near Koma in North Darfur on Monday night, about 80 kilometers from its destination. The World Food Program and UNICEF condemned the attack and demanded an investigation, noting the convoy was the first to attempt to reach devastated el-Fasher in over a year. The UN described the strike as an air attack, likely involving drones, though responsibility remains unclear. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) blamed Sudan’s military, while the army accused the RSF. El-Fasher, still held by government forces, has been under RSF siege since May 2024. The war in Sudan has fueled mass displacement, famine, and atrocities, making it the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, according to the UN. Associated PressReutersBBCDeutsche Welle

Death toll rises in extremist attack on soldiers at a Mali military base, sources say.Extremists linked to al-Qaeda killed at least 60 soldiers and wounded 40 more in a major attack on a military base in Boulkessi, Mali, near the Burkina Faso border. Reuters previously reported that 30 soldiers had been killed. The assault, which occurred Sunday, left the base overrun with fighters, with all surviving soldiers reportedly captured, according to local and military sources. Mali's army acknowledged the attack but did not confirm a death toll. The group Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) claimed responsibility. In a separate incident Monday, JNIM also launched coordinated attacks on military positions in Timbuktu. Mali’s army said it repelled the assault, killing 13 extremists, though a hospital source reported one soldier dead and 10 others wounded. These attacks underscore a growing insurgency in the Sahel region, where Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have all faced escalating violence following military coups. Associated PressBBC

Nigeria's defence chief proposes fencing borders to curb insecurity. Nigeria’s Defence Chief, General Christopher Musa, has urged for the country’s borders with Niger, Cameroon, Benin, and Chad to be fully fenced in a bid to hinder the infiltration of armed groups amid worsening insecurity and violence. Speaking at a security conference in Abuja, Musa cited border fences in Pakistan and Saudi Arabia as models, stressing that effective border management is vital to national security. Nigeria has faced a 16-year Islamist insurgency, mainly from Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province, resulting in widespread brutality and displacement. Authorities blame much of the insurgency’s persistence on foreign fighters crossing porous borders, especially from Cameroon, Niger, and Chad. Musa warned that Nigeria’s perceived wealth makes it a primary target in the region and said full border control is essential for national sovereignty and survival. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

One-third of top U.S. cyber force has left since Trump took office. A former government official has informed Axios that nearly 1,000 employees have left the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) under the current Trump administration, shrinking its workforce by about one-third. The departures come amid a proposed 17% budget cut that would reduce CISA to 2,649 employees—numbers the agency has already effectively reached due to recent buyouts and resignations. The losses span key areas, including election security, AI oversight, international partnerships, and the high-profile "Secure by Design" initiative. Experts warn that these cuts weaken the U.S.’s cyber defenses at a time when threats from foreign adversaries are escalating, especially as the administration pushes for more offensive cyber operations. Despite leadership changes and staffing concerns, CISA maintains that it is fulfilling its mission to protect national infrastructure. Axios

Former FBI senior cyber official joins Halcyon cybersecurity firm. Cynthia Kaiser, who recently left her position as the FBI's deputy assistant director for cyber policy, is joining the Halcyon cybersecurity firm as senior vice president of its newly created ransomware research center. Kaiser departed the FBI last week, expressing her eagerness to join the private sector after a 20-year government career. On leaving the FBI, Kaiser said, "There’s a lot of commitment in this administration to countering cyber adversaries, to countering cybercrime, to making sure everyday Americans are kept safe.” At Halcyon, Kaiser will focus on external partnerships with federal and state governments as well as tech sector information-sharing and analysis centers. Jon Miller, Halcyon’s co-founder and CEO, commented that Kaiser’s decades-long experience will “help secure our advantage as the ransomware intelligence experts.” CyberScoop

Cyber experts endorse Cairncross nomination in advance of Senate confirmation hearing. Sean Cairncross, a former White House and Republican National Committee official and former CEO of the Millennium Challenge Corporation, has been endorsed by 24 experts to serve as the national cyber director. The group sent a letter to the Senate Homeland Security Committee that will consider Cairncross' nomination on Thursday, along with the nomination of Sean Plankey to lead the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA). Regarding Cairncross, the experts -- which included veterans of the first Trump administration such as Department of Homeland Security officials Kirstjen Nielsen, Chad Wolf and Brian Harrell, and Bill Evanina, former director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center -- pointed to his impressive experience in both public and private sectors and his ability to build coalitions and implement key strategies. Former Cyberspace Solarium Commission members and staffers also signed the letter, including Frank Cilluffo, Tom Fanning, and Mark Montgomery. CyberScoop

AI pioneer establishes nonprofit to develop ‘safe, truthful’ models amid commercial frenzy. Joshua Bengio, known as one of the "godfathers" of AI, has warned that the global race to develop the technology has focused competitors on advancing capabilities but without "placing enough emphasis and investment on research on safety.” Bengio has launched a new nonprofit called LawZero, which aims to focus on building safer systems and shielding research from commercial pressures. Over the past six months, Bengio said, the AI sector has demonstrated indications that today’s leading models were developing dangerous capabilities, including “evidence of deception, cheating, lying, and self-preservation.” Anthropic's Claude Opus model, for example, created a fictitious scenario in which it threatened to blackmail engineers when the model sensed it was at risk of being replaced. In another incident, Palisade AI testers encountered while testing OpenAI's 03 model that it rejected explicit instructions to shut down. Circumstances like these have led Bengio to form LawZero with the aim of developing an AI system that demonstrates transparent and truthful reasoning, while also assessing whether its output is beneficial and safe. Bengio commented, “If we build AIs that are smarter than us and are not aligned with us and compete with us, then we’re basically cooked.” Financial TimesBloomberg

New U.S. ban on chip design tool exports to China to impact Xiaomi, other mainland tech firms. New U.S. restrictions on software tools are projected to severely impact Chinese tech companies, including Xiaomi, Lenovo, and Bitmain. A U.S. directive in May directed producers of electronic design automation (EDA) tools to end exports to China. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company has produced proprietary chip silicon for Xiaomi, the world's third-largest smartphone maker. Xiaomi released a self-designed mobile processor in May on a leading-edge 3-nanometer miniaturization node, which is manufactured in Taiwan using now-restricted U.S. EDA companies. The latest step by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security extends restrictions to design software, further tightening restrictions on China's capabilities to develop advanced technologies. However, some Chinese EDA makers, led by Empyrean Technology, have already developed alternative software increasingly used by Chinese chipmakers. In addition, Huawei has invested heavily in developing its own EDA tools and in supporting local EDA suppliers. The new U.S. curbs are reportedly expected to compel more Chinese companies to use hacked software, even as they transition to local suppliers for EDA and chip manufacturing. Financial Times

Germany reports record cybercrime levels in 2024, prompting intensified government response. Germany's BKA Federal Crime Office has disclosed that cybercrime in Germany reached record levels in 2024, driven by hacker attacks from pro-Russian and anti-Israel groups. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt observed that cybercrime "is getting more aggressive, but our counterstrategies are also becoming more professional." The BKA reported that cybercrime accounted for 131,391 domestic cases last year, and 201,877 originating abroad or from unknown locations. Cyberattack losses in Germany last year totaled $203.8 billion, representing a $34 billion increase from the previous year. According to the BKA, the threat actors conducting hacks of German targets were primarily either pro-Russian or anti-Israeli. The majority of targets were public and federal entities. Dobrindt said the government will intensify legal authorities to combat cybercrime and establish more stringent security standards for tech sector companies. Reuters

TSMC CEO says U.S. tariffs have minimal impact as AI market demand remains strong. C.C. Wei, the CEO of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), speaking to shareholders in Taiwan said that U.S. tariffs are having limited impact on the world's leading producer of semiconductors as market demand for AI remains high. Wei told the shareholders meeting that “if demand drops, TSMC’s business could be affected. But I can assure you that AI demand has always been very strong and it’s consistently outpacing supply.” Wei said that the company has no plans at present to construct chip factories in the United Arab Emirates. Responding to a possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait, Wei responded, “If something happens that we don’t want to happen, it’s a matter for governments, not for TSMC alone.” Regarding ongoing expansion projects, Wei reiterated the company's plant to spend another $100 billion for its Arizona fabrication plant over the next five years while noting that a plan to build a second plant in Japan was experiencing slight delays. South China Morning PostBloombergWall Street JournalReuters

Chinese autonomous vehicle firms find receptive market, regulations in Gulf States. Chinese robotaxi makers, including Baidu, Apollo Go, WeRide, and Pony AI, are finding a receptive market in the Middle East as they plan to expand their autonomous driving operations following their success in China. Zhang, regional general manager at Baidu’s autonomous-driving unit Apollo Go, said Gulf states' openness to smart transportation and the urban density of major cities "makes it a prime location for the deployment of autonomous vehicles.” Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi project that about 15 percent of public transport will be powered by autonomous vehicles by 2030. Tech-friendly government policies in the Middle East translate into acceptance of robotaxi transportation in contrast with stricter regulations in the U.S. and Europe. Chinese robotaxi firms have a substantial edge over competitors in the Middle Ease because of the expansive supply chains that keep costs low. Wall Street Journal

Market analyst foresees strong investor interest in Chinese AI, humanoid robotics. China's advances in AI and humanoid robotics are likely to receive positive assessments by investors, according to Magdalena Stoklosa, Morgan Stanley's director of pan-Asia research. Stoklosa told an interviewer that the breakthrough of the DeepSeek AI startup "has shifted the fundamental discussion about China to technological innovation." She added, “this theme is multi-year and incredibly important.” Among the positive factors influencing China's technological progress, Stoklosa cited “government support for AI infrastructure, a thriving innovation scene with start-ups, mega industry players, and a strategic push to build open-source models that make access to AI quicker and more affordable for many corporations.” Regarding the global market for humanoid robotics, Stoklosa said China's supply chain would play a crucial role in the production of sensors, cameras and the precise engineering required for robot movement. Morgan Stanley projects that by 2050 the global humanoid market will expand to $5 trillion. South China Morning Post

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