Report for Tuesday, June 3, 2025

Report for Tuesday, June 3, 2025

• Ukraine’s Stunning Assault Roils Russia’s Global Military Strategy
  
  
• Ukraine, Russia hold brief talks, agree on prisoner exchange but little else
  
  
• Britain unveils radical defense overhaul to meet new threats
  
  
• Trump says U.S. will not allow Iran to enrich uranium under nuclear deal
  
  
• Egyptian national suspected of Colorado fire-bomb planned assault for a year

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

The Genius – and the Implications – of Ukraine’s ‘Spider Web’ Drone Assault.Ukraine’s “Spider Web” drone operation has fundamentally altered the calculus of modern warfare, proving that low-cost, low-range weapons—when fused with elite intelligence and deep operational reach—can decisively cripple a great power’s strategic capabilities. More than just a tactical success, the attack revealed the vulnerability of Russia’s most prized military assets, thousands of kilometers from the front. Analysts say it shattered Moscow’s sense of domestic invulnerability and exposed critical flaws in Russian counterintelligence, forcing a reckoning within the Kremlin and the Russian Security Service (FSB). Strategically, Ukraine has demonstrated its ability to impose billion-dollar losses with near impunity, reshaping deterrence theory and raising the stakes for how nations protect their long-range airpower. The attack has also bolstered Kyiv’s autonomy in warfare at a moment when Western support is uncertain. Experts warn this may be a harbinger: distributed, asymmetric drone warfare is no longer theoretical—it’s here, and it forces all militaries to rethink security, survivability, and the true cost of technological complacency. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: The Many Parts of Trump's Golden Dome Missile Defense Plan. Walter Pincus, senior national security columnist for The Cipher Brief, critiques President Donald Trump’s “Golden Dome” missile defense initiative as an ambitious but likely unrealistic revival of Reagan’s abandoned “Star Wars” plan. Pincus highlights the technical, financial, and strategic challenges of the project, particularly its reliance on space-based interceptors (SBIs) for boost-phase missile defense—a capability that doesn’t currently exist and would require thousands of satellites. He underscores the implausibility of the proposed $175 billion price tag and 2029 completion timeline, pointing to past defense programs’ cost overruns and delays. Pincus also warns that the initiative could trigger a new arms race, especially in space, with both Russia and China responding by increasing their offensive capabilities. He views the Pentagon’s bureaucratic framework, dubbed SHIELD, as a way to funnel massive defense contracts without sufficient oversight or clear feasibility. Ultimately, Pincus sees Golden Dome as a politically driven concept with profound strategic risks and limited practical grounding. The Cipher Brief

Opinion: Lessons the U.S. Must Heed for Peace. Matin Bek, former chief of staff to the Afghan president and a fellow at New America’s Future Security Program, warns that the U.S. risks repeating its mistakes from the Afghanistan peace process in Ukraine. Drawing on his firsthand experience in the Doha negotiations, Bek argues that Washington’s overreliance on military aid without parallel diplomatic engagement has fostered Ukrainian dependency and prolonged the war. He sees parallels in Russia's demand to negotiate directly with the U.S., public criticism of Ukrainian leadership, and the misuse of American leverage—all of which echo the sidelining of the Afghan government during U.S.-Taliban talks. Bek urges the U.S. to ensure that Ukraine remains a central actor in any peace process and warns against backchannel deals that marginalize allies. A just and lasting peace, he emphasizes, must be inclusive, respectful, and anchored in hard-earned lessons from Kabul’s collapse. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

Egyptian national suspected of Colorado fire-bomb planned assault for a year.Mohamed Sabry Soliman, a 45-year-old Egyptian national and father of five, has been charged with attempted murder, assault, and a federal hate crime for throwing Molotov cocktails at a pro-Israel rally in Boulder, Colorado, on Sunday, injuring 12 people. He reportedly planned the attack for a year, disguising himself as a gardener and choosing Molotov cocktails over firearms due to his inability to buy guns because of his immigration status. Soliman, who overstayed a tourist visa and was in the U.S. illegally, told investigators he wanted to "kill all Zionist people." He allegedly yelled, “Free Palestine” as he threw incendiary devices, though he did not carry out his full plan “because he got scared and had never hurt anyone before,” according to a police affidavit. Authorities found 16 gasoline bombs near him, and U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi described the attack as an antisemitic act of terror. President Trump called the incident "yet another example of why we must keep our Borders SECURE, and deport Illegal, Anti-American Radicals from our Homeland." Soliman faces life in prison if convicted. The attack followed a recent fatal shooting outside the Israeli embassy in Washington and underscores the rising global tension over Israel's controversial military actions in Gaza. ReutersNew York TimesAxiosAssociated Press

Trump asked Japan to help with Golden Dome missile shield, Nikkei reports. U.S. President Donald Trump reportedly spoke about collaborating with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on technology for his proposed Golden Dome missile defense shield, according to the Nikkei. The project, estimated to cost $175 billion and headed by U.S. Space Force General Michael Guetlein, aims to be completed by 2029. Joint development of the shield’s technology could also benefit Japan by serving as leverage in tariff negotiations with the U.S. Tokyo and Washington have a history of cooperation on missile defense, including the joint development of space-based interceptors. The Golden Dome is projected by the Congressional Budget Office to cost $831 billion over 20 years. Reuters

Pentagon pushes US drone makers to innovate as quickly as Ukraine does. The Pentagon is launching Project G.I.; a $20 million initiative aimed at accelerating U.S. drone development by drawing direct lessons from Ukraine’s battlefield innovations. Unlike traditional defense acquisition cycles that take years, Project G.I. embeds frontline feedback into a rapid loop of design, testing, and deployment—mirroring how Ukrainian engineers adapt drone systems in real time to counter Russian jamming and shifting threats. Companies like Shield AI, which operates alongside Ukrainian troops, have shown it’s possible to iterate software fixes and redeploy solutions within 24 hours. Project G.I. focuses on low-cost, “less exquisite” drones suited for fast adaptation, emphasizing speed and volume over complexity. The program also highlights a strategic push to reduce dependence on Chinese-made components, aiming for domestic production scale-ups within 12 to 15 months. The initiative represents a shift toward agile, soldier-informed drone development—an essential move as drone warfare becomes a defining element of modern conflict, from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. Defense OneBreaking Defense

Seeing farther, striking deeper, this brigade is pushing its drones. During Exercise Balikatan 25 in the Philippines, the U.S. Army’s 2nd Mobile Brigade Combat Team, 25th Infantry Division, is advancing drone warfare capabilities alongside Philippine forces. As part of the Army’s “Transformation in Contact” initiative, soldiers now operate medium- and long-range drones with a reach of up to 30 kilometers, 10 times greater than last year’s systems, enabling deeper reconnaissance and strike capabilities. The unit also deployed 3D printing to build over 50 FPV drones and replacement parts in the field. Integrating electronic warfare tools, counter-drone gear, and improved mobility platforms, the exercise emphasizes procedural interoperability and joint operations, simulating high-intensity combat against a drone-equipped adversary. Defense News

Pentagon plans to redraw its command map to more closely align Greenland with the US. The Pentagon plans to shift Greenland from U.S. European Command to U.S. Northern Command, a move that symbolically aligns the autonomous Danish territory more closely with the U.S. and advances President Trump’s controversial ambitions to assert control over the Arctic Island. The change, part of a broader Unified Command Plan review, would bolster missile defense coordination by integrating Greenland into North American security architecture, possibly expanding the Golden Dome radar network. While geographically logical, the move is politically provocative, alarming Denmark and NATO allies already wary of Trump’s past comments about buying or even seizing Greenland. The decision effectively severs Greenland from Denmark in U.S. defense planning. It could strain transatlantic relations, as Europe views the shift as a sign of unilateral American intentions in the Arctic. Politico

Naturalized American citizen who joined IS in Syria sentenced to 10 years in prison. Lirim Sylejmani, a naturalized U.S. citizen born in Kosovo, was sentenced to 10 years in prison and lifetime supervised release for receiving military training from the Islamic State group. Sylejmani, 49, entered Syria in 2015, engaged in combat against U.S.-led forces, and was captured with his family in 2019. Prosecutors said he knowingly endangered his family by bringing them to Syria to join ISIS. His attorneys argued he is remorseful and not a committed jihadist, expressing his desire to reunite with his family, who remain detained in a Syrian refugee camp. Associated PressU.S. Department of Justice

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine’s Stunning Assault Roils Russia’s Global Military Strategy. Ukraine’s unprecedented drone assault—dubbed “Operation Spider’s Web”—on four deep-inland Russian airbases has dealt a major blow to Moscow’s long-range military capabilities, damaging or destroying over 40 Tupolev bombers vital to both conventional and nuclear strike missions. The Tupolevs, particularly the Tu-95s and Tu-22s, cannot be replaced due to Russia’s outdated aerospace industry. The attack has crippled Moscow’s strategic aviation force and forced a reassessment of how Russia stores and defends key military assets. Launched from within Russian territory, the strike has also exposed deep security failures and may trigger harsh internal crackdowns. The strikes on Sunday coincided with low-level peace talks the next day in Istanbul, which ended with minimal progress. Ukraine’s capability to hit targets over 3,000 miles away reveals a new level of intelligence and reach, rattling Russia’s nuclear deterrent and underlining Kyiv’s growing asymmetric warfare prowess. The damage also undermines Russia’s global power projection as the West ramps up nuclear deterrence spending in response. Wall Street Journal

How Ukraine's ‘Spiderweb’ ensnared Russia. Ukraine’s “Spiderweb” operation was a meticulously planned, year-and-a-half-long mission that involved launching 117 drones from inside Russia, where they had been covertly positioned in truck-mounted cabins. At the designated moment, the cabins’ roofs opened remotely, unleashing drones that struck five distant Russian airbases, damaging or destroying 41 aircraft, including strategic bombers and rare A-50 surveillance planes. The low-cost drones inflicted an estimated $7 billion in losses and exposed the vulnerability of Russia’s high-end assets. Looking ahead, the strike complicates ongoing peace talks in Turkey, where Russia offered essentially unchanged ceasefire terms. Analysts warn that President Vladimir Putin may escalate retaliatory attacks to reassert dominance. Meanwhile, political reactions in the U.S. remain uncertain, with President Trump under pressure to clarify his stance. Strategically, the attack signals a new phase in the war, showcasing Ukraine’s capacity to strike deep and shift the cost calculus for Moscow, even amid dwindling Western support. Axios

How Ukraine’s drone arsenal shocked Russia and changed modern warfare. Ukraine’s drone arsenal has revolutionized modern warfare and become central to its defense strategy against Russia. From inexpensive $400 FPVs to long-range strike UAVs and naval drones, Kyiv’s drone fleet has inflicted massive damage, including the recent “Spiderweb” attack that destroyed 41 Russian aircraft deep in Russian territory. Drones now account for up to 70% of Russian equipment losses, with over a million produced in 2024 and plans for 2.5 million in 2025. Ukraine’s decentralized, startup-driven industry fuels rapid innovation, producing loitering munitions, fiber-optic drones, and AI-assisted autonomous systems. Skyfall’s “Vampire” and “Shrike” drones exemplify homegrown ingenuity, backed by $2.5 billion in government contracts. Despite limited resources, Ukraine’s agile, competitive drone sector outpaces Russia’s more centralized approach, helping offset manpower and artillery disadvantages. The global defense community is watching closely as Ukraine’s drone warfare is reshaping battlefield tactics, deterrence theory, and military procurement priorities from Taiwan to the Pentagon.

Bloomberg

Ukraine, Russia hold brief talks, agree on prisoner exchange but little else. At Monday’s peace talks in Istanbul, Ukraine and Russia agreed on a large prisoner and body exchange—but remained deeply divided on ending the war. Kyiv secured commitments for the return of wounded POWs, young conscripts, and 6,000 fallen soldiers, while also demanding the return of hundreds of deported Ukrainian children. Russia offered only 10. Ukraine pushed for an unconditional ceasefire and future talks among leaders Volodymyr Zelensky, Vladimir Putin, and Donald Trump. Russia rejected this, proposing only a brief 2–3-day truce and presenting sweeping demands: Ukraine must cede four regions, abandon NATO hopes, demobilize forces, and lift martial law. Kyiv dismissed these terms as ultimatums. The talks came a day after Ukraine’s “Spider Web” drone attack crippled Russian strategic bombers, reinforcing Kyiv’s refusal to surrender. Despite Turkish mediation and U.S. pressure, the summit revealed no path to peace—only hardened positions amid ongoing military escalation. Washington PostBloombergFinancial TimesReutersPolitico EU

Putin’s sickening statistic: 1 million Russian casualties in Ukraine. Russia is nearing a grim milestone: one million military casualties in Ukraine since its full-scale invasion in 2022, with around 1,000 troops killed or wounded daily. Estimates suggest 250,000 Russians have died, with a wounded-to-killed ratio of 4:1, driven by brutal tactics and poor medical care. Unlike previous wars, these losses are overwhelmingly battlefield-related, rather than due to disease or famine. Despite the staggering toll, comparable to U.S. losses in World War II, President Vladimir Putin faces little domestic backlash. His regime has embraced “market mobilization,” offering life-changing pay and death benefits to contract soldiers, often from poor regions. Bonuses can exceed $15,000, with payouts to the families of slain soldiers reaching $200,000. This strategy has sustained recruitment without mass mobilization or unrest. In contrast, Ukraine’s defensive posture, smaller population, and democratic accountability have kept its losses lower, with better survival rates. The Economist

US Senate may work on the Russia sanctions bill this month. The U.S. Senate may begin work this month on a sweeping bipartisan sanctions bill targeting Russia and its trading partners over the war in Ukraine. Backed by 82 senators, the bill—sponsored by Lindsey Graham (R) and Richard Blumenthal (D)—would impose “bone-breaking” measures, including 500% tariffs on nations such as China and India that import Russian energy. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said the effort is coordinated with the White House to complement ongoing peace negotiations. While President Trump still hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, the Senate is preparing to act if the talks stall. The bill must also pass the House. Reuters

House Speaker Mike Johnson backs efforts to sanction Russia ‘as strongly as we can.’ House Speaker Mike Johnson voiced strong support Monday for new congressional efforts to impose harsh sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine. Backing a Senate initiative led by Sens. Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, Johnson called for the U.S. to sanction Russia “as strongly as we can.” The bipartisan Senate bill would impose 500% tariffs on nations buying Russian energy. With over 80 Senate co-sponsors, its gaining momentum, though it remains unclear whether President Trump will support it amid ongoing peace talks. Senate leaders are coordinating with the White House to align timing with diplomatic efforts. New York Post

Zelensky says he's ready to meet with Putin, Trump in Turkey. President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed readiness on Monday to participate in a leaders' summit proposed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, involving Erdoğan, U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and himself. Zelensky stated in an online press conference that he supports such talks, believing “there will be no ceasefire without our meeting.” While Erdoğan said Turkey plans to host the summit in Ankara or Istanbul, and Trump is reportedly open to attending, no date has been set. Zelensky criticized Russia’s limited ceasefire offer as unserious, underscoring skepticism about Moscow’s intentions despite ongoing Turkish-brokered negotiations. Kyiv Independent

Russian strike on downtown Sumy kills at least 3, injures 25, authorities say. Russian forces launched five rocket attacks on downtown Sumy on Tuesday, killing at least three people and injuring around 25. President Zelensky condemned the assault as a deliberate civilian strike, noting severe injuries, destroyed vehicles, and damage to homes and a medical facility. The attack followed a second failed round of peace talks in Istanbul. Russia continues to escalate pressure in Sumy Oblast, where it is amassing 50,000 troops. Kyiv Independent

Russian attacks kill at least five in Ukraine's east, officials say. Russian shelling killed at least five people in eastern Ukraine on Monday, according to regional officials. In the Donetsk region, one person was killed and two were injured in Kramatorsk, while two more were killed and three were injured in the town of Illinivka. In the Kharkiv region, prosecutors reported that two women died in a village south of Kupiansk, a city that has faced intense Russian attacks and is reportedly 90% destroyed. Reuters

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, June 2.Russian forces intensified their offensive along three axes in northern Sumy Oblast, advancing toward Sumy City but remaining unlikely to seize it.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Velyka Novosilka while Russian troops advanced near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, and Toretsk. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

Britain unveils radical defense overhaul to meet new threats. The U.K. on Monday unveiled a sweeping Strategic Defense Review (SDR) aimed at transforming its military to meet 21st-century threats, particularly from Russia, cyber warfare, and nuclear risks. Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged the largest defense investment since the Cold War, emphasizing technology over troop numbers. The plan includes expanding the attack submarine fleet, building six munitions’ plants, deploying 7,000 long-range weapons, and creating a new Cyber and Electromagnetic Command. Although defense spending is expected to rise to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, Starmer delayed committing to a 3% target until the next parliament (potentially by 2034), prompting criticism that the SDR lacks credible funding. The review also aims to increase the number of full-time army personnel to 76,000 and promote a “whole-of-society” defense approach. Despite fiscal constraints, the government argues the overhaul will create jobs, enhance security, and prepare Britain for “warfighting readiness” amid rising geopolitical instability. ReutersPolitico EU

UK Eyes Greater Nuclear Role in Europe Amid Doubts About US. Amid growing doubts about U.S. commitment to NATO under President Trump, the U.K. is positioning itself as a leading nuclear and defense power in Europe. Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Strategic Defense Review outlines a decade-long plan to boost Britain’s nuclear deterrent and shift the country to “war-ready” footing. This includes a £15 billion upgrade of the Trident program, construction of up to 12 new nuclear-powered submarines, and enhanced missile, drone, and cyber capabilities. Britain is also exploring nuclear-armed aircraft to deepen its role in NATO’s deterrence. The review reflects broader European anxieties about U.S. disengagement and calls for increased burden-sharing. With France also expanding its nuclear posture, the U.K. aims to remain the continent’s primary nuclear contributor to NATO, signaling a new era of European defense independence and industrial mobilization. BloombergWall Street Journal

Europe’s von der Leyen hails US senators’ bid to apply pressure with sanctions on Russia. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has voiced strong support for a sweeping U.S. Senate bill co-sponsored by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal that would impose severe new sanctions on Russia, including 500% tariffs on countries importing Russian energy. Meeting with Graham in Berlin on Monday, von der Leyen endorsed closer U.S.-European Union coordination as Brussels finalizes its 18th sanctions package targeting Russia’s energy sector, shadow fleet, and financial system. The move reflects growing urgency in the West to deplete Moscow’s war chest and pressure President Vladimir Putin amid faltering peace talks. While the proposed U.S. tariffs could affect EU nations that are still reliant on Russian fuel, von der Leyen appeared confident that the bloc could navigate the fallout. The bill also signals rising bipartisan pressure on President Trump to take more decisive action against Russia. Both sides see the coordinated measures as essential to forcing Russia back to serious negotiations and deterring further escalation in Ukraine. Politico EUEuronewsThe Brussels Times

What Poland’s new president means for Europe.Karol Nawrocki’s narrow presidential victory in Poland marks a sharp nationalist turn that threatens to complicate the country’s relations with the EU and Ukraine. Backed by the hard-right Law and Justice party (PiS), Nawrocki opposes Ukraine’s NATO bid and has signaled a Eurosceptic stance, drawing praise from Viktor Orbán and other populists. Although Prime Minister Donald Tusk retains control over foreign policy, Nawrocki’s presidential veto power could obstruct key reforms, particularly those related to judicial independence, green energy, and liberal social policies. His win weakens Tusk’s pro-European coalition and emboldens Trump-aligned conservatives in Central Europe. Nawrocki’s controversial past and anti-Brussels rhetoric have raised concerns about Poland’s political direction and credibility within Europe. The EconomistReuters

Defiant Tusk to call confidence vote to reassert his authority in Poland after election setback. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Monday that he will call a parliamentary vote of confidence to reaffirm support for his coalition after opposition-backed nationalist Karol Nawrocki narrowly won the presidential election. The result threatens to derail Tusk’s domestic reform agenda, including efforts on judicial independence and abortion rights, as Nawrocki is expected to use his veto power to block legislation. In a televised speech, Tusk declared, “We understand the gravity of the moment, but we do not intend to take a single step back,” adding, “We want everyone to see... that we are ready for this situation.” While his coalition still holds a majority in parliament, internal tensions have emerged, with some allies calling the vote “unnecessary theatrics.” Tusk said the vote aims to reestablish unity and demonstrate resilience amid rising political headwinds and growing pressure from both domestic critics and conservative opponents.Politico EUReutersBloomberg

Macron and Meloni Aim to Reconcile as Europe Seeks United Front. French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will meet in Rome on Tuesday to ease longstanding tensions and present a united front ahead of key NATO and G7 summits. The meeting reflects efforts to repair strained bilateral ties, which ideological differences and past disputes over Ukraine, immigration, and EU policy have worsened. While Macron views Meloni as aligned with Europe’s far-right, Meloni sees him as emblematic of elite arrogance. Despite their differences, both leaders share concerns over the Trump administration’s destabilizing impact on transatlantic relations. Talks will address Ukraine, the Middle East, trade, and bilateral issues, with hopes of reviving stalled Franco-Italian cooperation. Bloomberg

THE MIDDLE EAST

Trump says U.S. will not allow Iran to enrich uranium under nuclear deal. President Trump stated on Monday that the U.S. would not allow Iran to enrich uranium under a potential nuclear deal, contradicting details of a proposal made by his envoy, Steve Witkoff, and reported by Axios. Witkoff's proposal would permit limited low-level uranium enrichment for a set period, without requiring full dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran has insisted that any deal must allow enrichment for peaceful civilian use. While Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have publicly committed to zero enrichment, the proposal suggests potential flexibility. Axios’ report sparked concern among Iran hawks in Washington and Israel, and Tehran has expressed a desire for clarity on how and when U.S. sanctions would be lifted. The White House did not confirm or deny Axios’ reporting, with Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stating they would not comment out of respect for the ongoing negotiations. The deal’s fate remains uncertain amid these conflicting positions. Axios Bloomberg Associated Press

UN, Iran and Egypt meet to discuss Iran’s nuclear program as enrichment continues.U.N., Iranian, and Egyptian leaders gathered in Cairo on June 2 for talks on Iran’s nuclear program, after the IAEA released a stern report showing that Tehran’s uranium stockpile of 408.6 kilograms has been enriched up to 60%, near weapons-grade levels. This increase has raised concerns, with the nuclear watchdog calling Iran the only non-nuclear-armed country producing such material. The Monday meeting was attended by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi, and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty. Washington and Tehran are holding talks aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Iranian officials dismissed the IAEA report as politically motivated and argued that Iran’s nuclear activities are transparent and fully monitored. Associated Press

US gives nod to Syria to bring foreign jihadist ex-rebels into army. The U.S. has approved a plan by Syria’s new leaders to integrate around 3,500 foreign jihadist former rebel fighters, primarily Uyghurs from China and neighboring countries, into the Syrian army’s 84th division, on the condition of transparency. U.S. envoy Thomas Barrack said it’s safer to keep these fighters, who are loyal to Syria’s new administration, within a state framework rather than leaving them vulnerable to recruitment by groups like al Qaeda or ISIS. This decision marks a shift in U.S. policy since Trump’s recent Middle East trip, which included lifting Assad-era sanctions and meeting Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa. Some of the fighters, previously with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, are reportedly disciplined and experienced. China has expressed concerns about Uyghur fighters from the Turkistan Islamic Party, but Syrian officials claim the group has officially dissolved and integrated into the national military. The proposal remains contentious with Western governments. ReutersTimes of Israel

Syrian government, Kurdish-led force swap prisoners in a step toward easing tensions.Syrian authorities and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) exchanged over 400 prisoners in Aleppo on Monday as part of a confidence-building deal. This follows a similar exchange in April, as officials aim to ease tensions between the Damascus government and the U.S.-backed SDF. Aleppo’s deputy governor said 470 prisoners were released, with more expected soon. One freed prisoner, a civilian, described being mistakenly detained by the SDF and held with the “biggest terrorists,” including Islamic State militants. The exchange comes after a March agreement merging the U.S.-backed SDF into the Syrian army, which also brought a ceasefire with the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army. The Syrian government continues to struggle to assert control and achieve peace in the country’s fractured, post-war landscape. Associated Press

Palestinian officials claim Israeli forces killed 27 heading to aid site.At least 27 Palestinians were killed and dozens injured on Tuesday when Israeli forces fired on people heading toward an aid distribution site in Rafah, Gaza, witnesses and health officials reported. The incident is the third in as many days, with Israel’s military stating that warning shots were fired near individuals who strayed from designated routes and entered a military zone. The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), operating the distribution site, denied violence at its hub but acknowledged Israeli forces were investigating the incident in an area beyond the secure site. Survivors described the shooting as “indiscriminate,” with some returning empty-handed, saying there was no aid available. The violence comes amid Gaza’s dire food shortages, with many now living in shelters after months of conflict. Associated PressNew York TimesReuters

Israeli fire kills three people, wounds dozens near Gaza aid site. Local health officials said on Monday that at least three Palestinians were killed and dozens injured near an aid distribution site run by the U.S.-based Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) in Rafah, Gaza, amid ongoing Israeli military operations. The Israeli army said its troops fired warning shots to deter suspected threats about 1 km from the site and denied involvement in the reported fatalities. GHF reported no casualties at its site, while U.N. Secretary General António Guterres called for an independent investigation. The incident follows a deadly strike on Sunday that killed at least 31 near the same location. GHF’s aid plan, which bypasses traditional aid organizations, has faced criticism from humanitarian groups and a boycott call from Palestinian NGOs. Meanwhile, Gaza's health ministry reported 51 deaths and 500 injuries from Israeli strikes across the territory in the past 24 hours. ReutersAssociated Press

Israel reports deaths of 3 soldiers in Gaza fighting. Three Israeli soldiers, all in their early 20’s, were killed in fighting in northern Gaza, the military announced on Tuesday, following Hamas' claims of intense clashes with Israeli forces. This marks the deadliest assault on Israel’s forces since it halted a ceasefire with Hamas in March. The military did not reveal many details about the incident, but Israeli media said the three were killed in a blast in the Jabaliya area. About 860 Israeli troops have been killed since the start of the conflict in October 2023. ReutersTimes of IsraelAssociated Press

ASIA & OCEANIA

After months of political chaos, South Korea is electing Its next president. Here’s what to know. South Koreans are set to vote in a snap presidential election after months of political turmoil, including the imposition of martial law by former President Yoon Suk Yeol, who was impeached and removed from office in April. This vote will determine the country’s stance on trade with the U.S., its relations with China, and tensions with North Korea. Frontrunner Lee Jae-myung, a leftist and former Democratic Party leader, holds a double-digit lead and supports a balanced foreign policy, while conservative Kim Moon-soo, a former labor minister, pledges strong U.S. ties. The election has become a referendum on martial law and Yoon's legacy, with polls showing most South Koreans want change. The winner will face challenges in managing U.S. trade and military relations, friction with Beijing, and potential denuclearization talks with Pyongyang. Lee’s cautious stance contrasts with Kim’s push for immediate U.S. trade negotiations and summit with President Donald Trump. Wall Street JournalAxiosBloombergReuters

China ‘has a lot of trust building to do’ in South China Sea, Philippines says. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro has urged China to engage in genuine negotiations over the hotly disputed South China Sea, asserting that Beijing has much to do to regain Manila’s trust. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Teodoro cited the militarization of Mischief Reef, once claimed by China as a temporary shelter, as evidence of broken promises. He stressed that trust is essential for resolving disputes. Observers noted, however, that trust is mutual. Manila’s deepening military ties with the U.S.—including expanded access to military sites and the deployment of missile systems—fuel Chinese suspicions. The Asian power’s reduced presence at the dialogue, seen as sidestepping tough questions amid rising U.S.-China tensions, risks portraying Beijing as uncooperative. Analysts warn that such actions may push the Philippines further into U.S.-led security frameworks. Regional experts suggest that China must adjust its tactics to demonstrate a serious commitment to peaceful resolution and restore its regional credibility. South China Morning Post

Taiwan ready to test kamikaze sea drone designed to ‘support coastal assault operations’.Taiwan plans to test a domestically developed kamikaze sea drone, codenamed the "Kuai Chi Project," later this month as part of efforts to strengthen its naval defenses amid rising tensions with China. Developed by the National Chung-Shan Institute of Science and Technology (NCSIST), the drone will undergo combat capability evaluations and, if successful, live testing during a missile drill in August. With over NT$800 million (US$25 million) allocated, Taiwan aims to mass-produce over 200 units by 2026 to support coastal defense. These AI-enabled, unmanned vessels can autonomously strike enemy ships. In June, NCSIST will also showcase unmanned maritime platforms for various missions in a demonstration event. However, the Kuai Chi drone itself will remain confidential and may be revealed at the Taipei Aerospace and Defense Technology Exhibition in September. South China Morning Post

‘Hong Kong will take action against illegal acts,’ John Lee says ahead of June 4. Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee warned that authorities would act against anyone threatening national security, as the 36th anniversary of the deadly Tiananmen Square crackdown approaches. When asked about commemorative activities like lighting candles or wearing slogans in Causeway Bay, where past vigils were held, Lee stressed all activities must comply with the law. Without directly referencing the 1989 crackdown, Lee reaffirmed the seriousness of crimes that endanger national security and said enforcement agencies will act “resolutely and stringently” against illegal acts. His comments came ahead of the June 4 anniversary, and a year after Hong Kong’s Safeguarding National Security Law was enacted. This year marks the first commemoration under the city’s tightened legal framework, while mainland China continues to censor all discussion of the Tiananmen protests. A large-scale vigil was permitted in Hong Kong until 2020, when it was banned on health grounds. South China Morning Post

US-Japan-Australia-Philippines defense pact vs China? Ex-official urges alliance. Ely Ratner, U.S. ex-assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, has proposed a formal Pacific collective defense pact involving the U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines to counter China’s growing military ambitions. Writing in Foreign Affairs, Ratner argued the pact is now viable and essential, given Beijing’s assertive push to reshape Asia by force. He stressed that it would differ from the broader “Asian NATO” concept, focusing on practical, smaller-scale cooperation. While supporters see potential for stronger security ties, analysts warn the plan faces significant hurdles, including political, diplomatic, and regional tensions. Critics caution that a formal pact could inflame relations with China, unsettle Southeast Asian neighbors, and pressure members, particularly the Philippines, to take on greater security risks. Balancing security interests with economic ties to Beijing, especially for Australia, complicates the proposal. Some argue that ASEAN and regional frameworks offer more realistic paths forward. South China Morning Post

Myanmar junta announces extended temporary ceasefire. Myanmar’s junta has extended a temporary ceasefire until June to aid reconstruction and relief efforts after a devastating earthquake in late March killed at least 3,700 people. The ceasefire, first announced in April, followed similar moves by anti-junta armed groups, who have also extended their ceasefire until the end of June. Despite the ceasefire announcement, military airstrikes and artillery attacks have persisted in some parts of the country. Reuters

AFRICA

Rwanda-backed rebels in Congo executed civilians, Human Rights Watch says. M23 rebels backed by Rwanda executed at least 21 civilians in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo, in February, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW). The group released a report covering February 22-23, and documents incidents in which civilians were shot in the head near Katindo military camp, their bodies dumped nearby, including that of a 15-year-old boy. The violence continued the next day when M23 rounded up and shot several young men accused of being army members. Medical workers reported that over 50 bodies were collected from the Kasika area during the two days. HRW called for accountability, while an M23 leader acknowledged the allegations and promised an investigation. The ongoing conflict has killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands. Other organizations, including Amnesty International and UNICEF, have reported severe human rights abuses, including torture, disappearances, and a surge in sexual violence, particularly targeting women and children. Reuters Human Rights Watch

Nigerian air force reports at least 20 killed in airstrike on militia group. Over the weekend, the Nigerian Air Force conducted an airstrike on villages in the northwestern state of Zamfara, reportedly killing over 20 armed militants and destroying 21 motorcycles, disrupting a planned attack on communities. An Air Commodore said the strike was based on intelligence about the bandits, who had previously killed farmers and abducted civilians, including women and children. Residents and Amnesty International raised concerns about the strike, reporting that the attack also killed local vigilantes and civilians, with an unknown number injured. This comes in the wake of past incidents in which military airstrikes mistakenly hit civilians in northwest Nigeria. Amnesty condemned the airstrikes as “reckless” and “unlawful.” ReutersAl Jazeera

Nigeria Attacks Surge as Islamic-State Affiliate Hits Army Bases. Islamist militants, mainly from the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), have escalated attacks in northeastern Nigeria, undermining President Bola Tinubu's efforts to restore security. Risk-analysis firm Seerist recorded 45 incidents in May—the highest since 2020—mostly linked to ISWAP. The group, which previously tried expanding into central Nigeria, has refocused on the northeast, carrying out highly coordinated assaults, including a major raid on New Marte on May 11. ISAWP has also used drones and night-vision equipment likely captured from Nigerian and Cameroonian forces. Tinubu, facing economic backlash, is under increased pressure, while regional instability, including a coup in Niger and strained relations with Chad, threatens joint security efforts. Analysts warn ISWAP’s evolving tactics and propaganda efforts may push it to rival Boko Haram’s past dominance, and Borno’s governor cautions that gains against the insurgents are slipping. Bloomberg

UN convoy attacked on the way to Sudan's al-Fashir, UNICEF says. A U.N. convoy delivering food to al-Fashir in Sudan’s devastated North Darfur was attacked overnight, resulting in multiple casualties, according to a UNICEF spokesperson. The convoy, including trucks from the World Food Programme (WFP) and UNICEF, was waiting for approval in Al Koma, North Darfur, when it came under attack. The spokesperson did not specify who was responsible for the incident. Al-Fashir, North Darfur’s capital, has been suffering from famine conditions, with food supplies severely disrupted by two years of ongoing war. Reuters

More than 4 million refugees have fled Sudan since war began, UN says. The U.N. refugee agency stated on Tuesday that over 4 million people have fled war-torn Sudan since the conflict erupted two years ago. A UNHCR spokesperson informed a Geneva press briefing that this turning point was reached on June 2, and that the scale of displacement was "putting regional and global stability at stake.” Reuters

Civilian casualties mount in South Sudan amid fighting between army and local militias.Civilians in South Sudan are suffering under increasing violence as clashes between the army and local militias rage on in the world’s youngest nation. Wiyuach Makuach, a 60-year-old woman, lost her arm and was severely burned in an army airstrike on a hospital in Fangak. The attack on May 3, which also killed seven people, highlights the mounting toll of brutality on civilians. Fighting and constant bombardments have displaced families, leading to a humanitarian crisis in Upper Nile and Jonglei states, with aid groups warning of potential civil war. Recent weeks have seen numerous airstrikes and reports of civilian casualties, including children. Hospitals in Akobo are overwhelmed, and many critical patients can't be transported. The government, accused of using incendiary weapons against opposition soldiers and community militias, denies targeting civilians and attributes the violence to opposition forces linked to Riek Machar. Associated Press

Two suspected Uganda rebels killed in Kampala blast, officials say. An explosion in Kampala, Uganda, near the Munyonyo Martyrs’ Shrine killed two suspected rebels, including a female suicide bomber, on Tuesday morning. The blast occurred during Martyrs’ Day celebrations, though no other casualties were reported. The suspects were thought to be linked to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a rebel group affiliated with Islamic State. A Ugandan army spokesman stated that a counter-terrorism unit intercepted and neutralized the suspects, one of whom was carrying powerful explosives. The ADF, created by Ugandan Muslims in the 1990s, has been responsible for numerous attacks and thousands of civilian deaths. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Ukraine expands options for counter-drone defenses to meet intensifying Russian UAV assaults. Behind the headline-capturing drone exploits by Ukrainian and Russian forces is an intensifying effort by Kyiv to diversify its counter-drone capabilities with a new generation of drones designed to identify and shoot down other unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV's). Escalating Russian drone attacks, especially using the Iranian-designed Shahed UAV, have stretched Ukraine's defenses thin. In response, Ukraine is turning to multiple sources for drone killers, including the Latvia-based UAV firm, Origin Robotics, which this month is providing Ukrainian forces with prototype drones designed to explode near incoming attack drones. President Volodymyr Zelensky recently acknowledged the country's interest in new ways to combat UAV threats: “We have jets now to shoot down drones. We are also moving in the direction of drone-drone interceptors.” Alternatives to fighter aircraft and interceptor drones include the low-tech option of truck-mounted machine guns, which are of limited effectiveness. Ukraine also is developing fixed-wing drones that smash into Russian attack platforms as well as UAV's equipped with recoilless shotguns to shoot down enemy aircraft. Bloomberg

A Russian Cosmos satellite positioned for ‘co-orbital’ flight with a U.S. satellite raises ASAT concerns. According to the U.S. Space Command, Russia's newest Low-Earth-Orbit (LEO) satellite is operating near a U.S. government satellite, raising suspicions that the Cosmos models are anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons rather than simply surveillance platforms, as Russia has described them. The Space Command statement followed reports from independent astronomers that Cosmos 2588, launched on May 23, was put into co-orbital flight with USA 338, reportedly one of the NRO’s KH-series electro-optical spy satellites, known as part of the Crystal constellation. A tracking photo of Cosmos 2588 published by a U.S. firm, Slingshot Aerospace, describes the Russian spacecraft as "an NIVELIR military inspection satellite with a suspected kinetic weapon onboard." A Cosmos satellite in 2020 fired a high-speed projectile in what U.S. and U.K. military leaders said was a clear ASAT weapons test. Breaking Defense

Ongoing U.S.-China trade frictions threaten agreements on rare earths exports. Despite agreement by the U.S. and China to lower tariffs, tensions are building over access to chips and rare earths, sectors in which Beijing reportedly has gained an edge. Critical materials have especially emerged as a contentious topic between the two sides as U.S. officials pointed out that China has not honored a pledge to lift export controls on some rare earths. Deputy U.S. Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender said that resolving the issue "is going to require a discussion between the presidents of the two countries.” China produces almost 70 percent of the world’s metals essential for the manufacture of fighter aircraft, nuclear reactor control rods, and other key technologies. As the South China Morning Post reports, critical minerals used in most advanced military systems and weapons cannot be substituted. Consequently, Chinese export restrictions not only make the U.S. defense supply chain more vulnerable, but limits on access to Chinese separation and refining technology also hamper attempts to create U.S. alternative sources. China's leverage in medium and heavy minerals is not limited to defense and national security applications. Chinese restrictions on light rare earths such as neodymium and praseodymium, which are widely used in consumer products, could have an even greater impact on the U.S. economy. BloombergSouth China Morning Post

Concerns increasing over AI data center vulnerabilities to physical attack. Eric Schmidt, the former Google CEO, recently suggested that physical attacks on data centers could become part of the digital arms race. With AI advances dependent on huge data centers, Schmidt raised the possibility of placing data centers in space as an added form of protection. Schmidt's concerns about data center vulnerability were assessed by Ted Theisen, a former White House cyber official, who warned that “it is highly likely that data centers will become targets of physical attacks in the next five years." Theisen added that a successful attack on a major AI data center would be devastating by delaying LLM training, crippling existing AI services, and having repercussions for national security. With data centers rapidly becoming part of a nation's critical infrastructure, physical defenses appear to be lagging behind. Experts say that future-proofing these facilities needs to be accelerated, including the possibility of placing some assets in orbit. Cybernews

China’s development of directed-energy weapons compared with Israeli combat systems. Israel's recent use in combat of a lower-powered version of its laser defense system, the Iron Beam, has drawn the attention of militaries to directed-energy weapons (DEWs). Although the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has not revealed the counter-drone systems it is testing and deploying, Chinese-made laser weapons such as the Silent Hunter and Shennong Shield have seen use in foreign locales. Silent Hunter, also known as the LW-30, was developed by the state-owned firm, China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC), to be mounted on a military truck capable for forming a data-linked, multi-vehicle network. The LW-30 can burn through a steel plate 0.197 inches thick from 1km away. It reportedly has a “hard kill” range against drones of 2.49 miles and can interfere with drone electro-optical gear at greater distances. The LW-30 was purchased by Saudi Arabia in 2022 to protect Riyadh from Houthi reconnaissance drones and loitering munitions. The Hubei-based private firm, Yangyi Automobile, manufactures the Shennong Shield 3000/5000, available as a container-size station and as a road-mobile option. It has a maximum power output of 20kW, with hard and soft kill ranges of 0.9 miles and 1.86 miles, respectively. Neither system has the combat effectiveness of weapons used by Israel, according to experts. Michael Raska, a military technology professor in Singapore, said China has not yet produced “a robust, combat-validated laser weapon that can match high-power, fully integrated concepts." South China Morning Post

Samsung-Perplexity deal nearing to integrate AI tools in 2026 smartphone release. Samsung Electronics reportedly is nearing agreement on an investment in Perplexity AI to integrate the AI startup's search technology into its devices. The potential deal involves preloading Perplexity's app and assistant on upcoming Samsung devices and incorporating the startup's search features into the Samsung web browser. An announcement on the Perplexity applications could come this year to be followed with their use in Samsung's Galaxy S26 smartphones in the first half of 2026. Samsung is expected to be one of Perplexity's largest investors in a new round of funding in which the startup seeks to raise $500 million at a $14 billion valuation. The two companies also have discussed development of an AI-infused operating system and an AI agents app that can use tools from Perplexity and a range of other AI assistants. BloombergCybernews

Huawei invests in over 60 Chinese chip-related firms to blunt impact of U.S. sanctions. Since the beginning of U.S. sanctions against Huawei Technologies in 2019, the company has invested in over 60 Chinese chip-related companies. The investment strategy has been executed through Huawei's investment company, Hubble. The targeted investments have focused on a range of chip-related activities, from design and materials to manufacturing and testing. According to sources, many of the investments are of stakes of less than 10 percent. Tang Jin, a senior researcher at Japan's Mizuho Bank, says that Huawei has prioritized the development of "a controllable supply chain." Huawei also has established close ties to SiCarrier, a Shenzhen-based chip equipment maker that reportedly is pursuing development of advanced lithography equipment. SiCarrier previously was a Huawei division that became independent under Shenzhen government sponsorship following the imposition of U.S. sanctions. Nikkei

REPORT INFO

Brad Christian, Executive Editor

Ethan Masucol, Assistant Editor

Brian Bonner, Senior Contributor

Ken Hughes, Tech & Cyber Contributor

Katharine Campbell, Writer, Contributor

Read deeply experienced, expert-driven national security news, analysis, and opinion in The Cipher Brief