9:15 AM America/New York Tuesday, June 24
Report for Tuesday, June 24, 2025
- Uncertainty follows Israeli strikes after reported Iranian missile launches, despite ceasefire
- Lawmakers to Bondi: DOJ funding cuts threaten national security
- Could this be the most significant NATO summit since the Cold War?
- NATO chief Rutte argues China’s ‘massive’ build-up raises threat of Taiwan Strait conflict
CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES
Former CIA Director on the Priority Intelligence Requirement in Iran.Former Central Intelligence Agency Director Gen. David Petraeus emphasized the critical role of bomb damage assessment (BDA) following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. While the operation was a complex and successful display of military precision, Petraeus stressed that key intelligence questions remain unresolved. Chief among them: Was all of Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) destroyed? Were the centrifuges at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow rendered inoperable? Did Iran move key materials or equipment before the strike? Is there a hidden facility that escaped detection? The BDA process will require a fusion of all intelligence disciplines—imagery, signals, cyber, human, and open-source—to determine whether Iran retains the capability to restart its nuclear weapons program. Petraeus noted uncertainty around recent satellite images showing vehicle movement at Fordow before the strike, raising questions about what may have been removed. Confirming the complete extent of destruction, he warned, may ultimately prove elusive. The Cipher Brief
Opinion: What Was Trump Thinking When He Ordered the Strike on Iran?Walter Pincus explores the motivations behind President Trump’s decision to order U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, emphasizing the deep coordination with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the role of failed nuclear negotiations. Trump appeared heavily influenced by Netanyahu’s claim that Iran was close to developing a bomb, despite U.S. intelligence assessments indicating otherwise. Trump dismissed these findings, paralleling past instances where he prioritized foreign leaders’ claims over his own agencies—most notably in Helsinki with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2018. The strike followed a 60-day negotiation window Trump had offered Iran, which ended June 12. When talks collapsed, Israel launched preemptive strikes on June 13, degrading Iran’s defenses. The U.S. quickly followed, leveraging Israeli groundwork. Though Trump publicly claimed openness to continued diplomacy, his aggressive Truth Social posts—calling for “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” and threatening Iran’s Supreme Leader—undercut those overtures. The operation’s long preparation and messaging strategy suggest diplomacy was never a real priority. The Cipher Brief
Opinion: Will Anything Stop Iran's Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons?Ambassador Joseph DeTrani argues that Iran's leadership was caught off guard by the swift and precise U.S.-Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites, despite Tehran’s defiance of IAEA warnings and increasing uranium enrichment. Supreme Leader Khamenei may have mistakenly counted on diplomatic protection from alliances with Russia, China, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Instead, Iran received only rhetorical support, while Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine and China faces domestic economic challenges. DeTrani warns of another key risk: Iran's longstanding, clandestine military ties with North Korea. North Korea has supplied Iran with ballistic missile technology and may be aiding its long-range missile and nuclear ambitions. Unconfirmed reports suggest North Korea could be helping construct underground nuclear facilities or even transfer fissile material. DeTrani emphasizes that transferring nuclear weapons or materials to Iran would cross a red line with intolerable consequences. He urges renewed engagement with North Korea to prevent proliferation and better monitor this dangerous alliance. The Cipher BriefU.S. STRIKES IRAN
Uncertainty follows Israeli strikes after reported Iranian missile launches, despite ceasefire. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on Tuesday that he had ordered strikes on Tehran in response to what he called Iran’s violation of a newly declared ceasefire. Katz claimed Iran had launched missiles at Israel, just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump announced the ceasefire was in effect. Iran denied any missile launches, with its military and state-affiliated media insisting there had been no violations. The conflicting claims cast immediate doubt on the durability of the truce, which aimed to end 12 days of warfare between the two countries. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel had achieved its objectives of dismantling the Islamic Republic’s nuclear and missile capabilities, and thanked the U.S. for its support. Iran, meanwhile, said Israel was forced into a unilateral ceasefire and warned that it remained ready to respond to aggression. Despite the uncertainty, global markets surged and oil prices dropped on hopes the ceasefire would hold. ReutersBBCNew York TimesFrance 24Associated Press
Trump thanks Iran for giving ‘early notice’ of missile attack on U.S. base in Qatar. President Trump said Monday that Iran gave “early notice” before launching missile strikes on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, allowing Washington to avoid casualties and minimize damage. Trump downplayed the attack as “very weak” and “expected,” noting that most missiles were intercepted, and no Americans or Qataris were harmed. His acknowledgment of prior notice echoes Iran’s 2020 strike tactics on a U.S. military base in Iraq after the Soleimani killing. Diplomatic sources said Iran’s response was calibrated and anticipated, with American and Qatari officials meeting beforehand. Iran suggested its missile barrage was symbolic, matching the number of U.S. bombs dropped. Qatar and its Arab neighbors condemned the violation of airspace, though damage was minimal. Trump later announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, though it did not appear to be holding as of Tuesday. He indicated that no further U.S. strikes were planned if the situation stabilizes. Wall Street JournalCBS News
Trump signals de-escalation in response to Iranian strike on US air base in Qatar. President Trump took a markedly conciliatory tone when confirming Iran’s missile attack on the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, thanking Tehran for giving early warning that helped prevent casualties. Trump expressed hope that tensions had cooled, declaring “IT’S TIME FOR PEACE!” and saying Iran had “gotten it all out of their ‘system.’” This response suggests a desire to avoid wider war, even as Iran faces internal and external pressure to project strength without provoking full-scale escalation. However, despite the attack’s limited impact—13 missiles were intercepted—analysts warn that the regime may still pursue long-term, asymmetric retaliation. U.S. officials believe the nation’s missile capabilities have been weakened by Israeli attacks, but note the regime’s history of patience and indirect reprisals. PoliticoCNNTrump brokered ceasefire in call with Netanyahu while US team spoke to Iran.President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Monday after speaking directly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and envoy Steve Witkoff held talks with Tehran. The agreement hinges on Iran refraining from further attacks, which it signaled it would do. The ceasefire followed U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and an Iranian missile response targeting a U.S. base. Trump had previously resisted military intervention but ordered the strikes after failed diplomatic efforts. His move sparked concern within his political base, but the ceasefire may bolster his image as a dealmaker committed to U.S. interests. Reuters
Iran’s Nuclear Dreams May Survive Even a Devastating American Blow. Despite President Trump’s claim of a spectacular strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, experts argue the program is likely to endure due to its deep integration into Iran’s identity, security doctrine, and historical pride. Since the shah’s era in the 1970s, Iran’s nuclear efforts have symbolized scientific ambition and geopolitical relevance, sentiments that transcended the 1979 revolution. Even with the damage inflicted by U.S. and Israeli strikes, Iran retains decades of nuclear knowledge and national resolve, which analysts say any future regime—reformist or hardline—would likely continue. The program combines overt civilian goals with covert military capabilities and serves as both deterrent and ideological tool. Experts argue the attacks may only harden Iranian leaders’ belief in the need for a nuclear deterrent, especially given their perception of regional threats. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei now faces a critical choice between escalating conflict or downplaying losses to preserve the regime—either path likely deepens the toll on Iranian civilians. New York Times
Trump’s Iran Attack Spurs Concerns of Retaliation in the U.S.Following President Trump’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, federal law enforcement is on high alert for possible retaliation, including Tehran-backed plots and cyberattacks. The FBI has refocused resources toward Iran-related threats in major cities, after previously prioritizing immigration enforcement. Though no direct calls for violence have emerged, the Department of Homeland Security issued a bulletin warning of heightened risks, including hate crimes and cyber intrusions. Authorities are monitoring potential targets, especially military and Jewish sites. Past Iranian plots to assassinate U.S. officials and cyber operations against infrastructure are also being scrutinized. Critics worry resource shifts may leave the U.S. vulnerable to more urgent national security threats. Wall Street Journal
As US cities heighten security, Iran’s history of reprisal points to murder-for-hire plots.In the wake of U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, officials are on high alert for retaliation, particularly Iran’s pattern of murder-for-hire plots. Rather than mass violence, Iran has repeatedly turned to covert operations using intermediaries to target dissidents and political figures. The FBI disrupted a 2023 plot to assassinate President Donald Trump, allegedly orchestrated by Farhad Shakeri, an Iranian government asset who recruited criminal associates. Former National Security Adviser John Bolton was also targeted, with a $300,000 bounty offered by an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps member. Iranian American journalist Masih Alinejad faced both a failed kidnapping attempt and a $500,000 murder contract, linked to Russian mobsters paid by Tehran. A 2011 plot to bomb a Saudi ambassador in Washington further illustrates this long standing tactic. These cases reveal Iran’s use of proxies, criminal networks, and cyber means to exact revenge while denying direct involvement—underscoring the current heightened threat landscape U.S. authorities are monitoring closely. Associated Press
A look at Al Udeid Air Base, the US military site that Iran attacked.Iran launched 19 missiles at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday, a key American military hub. One missile struck the base, but no injuries were reported, and President Trump stated there was “hardly any damage.” Al Udeid, located southwest of Doha, houses thousands of U.S. troops and serves as the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command. It has supported operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. Ahead of the strikes, the base cleared its tarmacs of aircraft—a strategic precaution mirrored at other U.S. sites. Trump visited the base in May, the first sitting president to do so in over 20 years. Associated Press
Trump rips Russia’s Medvedev over nuclear remarks. President Trump sharply criticized former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on Monday for suggesting that Iran’s allies might supply it with nuclear warheads in retaliation for U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Medvedev claimed “a number of countries” were ready to provide Iran with warheads, prompting Trump to accuse him of casually using the “N word” (nuclear) and highlighting U.S. submarine-launched Tomahawk strikes on Iran’s facilities. Medvedev later denied intentions to arm Iran, citing Russia’s adherence to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The Hill
Putin says US strikes on Iran are pushing world to 'very dangerous line'. Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned recent U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites as “unjustified aggression” and warned they were pushing the world toward a “very dangerous line.” During a Kremlin meeting on Monday with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi—who reportedly delivered a letter from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—Putin pledged vague support for the Iranian people but offered no concrete aid. Iranian officials are reportedly dissatisfied with Russia’s limited backing and want more help against the U.S. and Israel. Although Russia and Iran signed a 20-year strategic partnership, it lacks a mutual defense clause. Putin, balancing war in Ukraine and cautious diplomacy with Trump, appears reluctant to escalate. At the U.N., Russia joined China and Pakistan in calling for an immediate Middle East ceasefire and denouncing U.S. actions as reckless. Reuters
Why Russia Is Giving Iran the Cold Shoulder After Israel Attack.Despite a strategic partnership signed earlier this year, Russia has offered Iran little more than rhetorical support following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. President Vladimir Putin condemned the attacks as unjustified but avoided any commitment to military aid, instead proposing diplomatic de-escalation. Iranian officials, frustrated by Moscow’s inaction, have asked for air-defense systems and help restoring nuclear infrastructure, but Russia appears unwilling or unable to deliver. Analysts note a pattern in which Putin distances himself from embattled allies—such as Armenia and Syria—when the risks outweigh the benefits. With Russia mired in Ukraine and wary of jeopardizing ties with Israel or President Donald Trump, it has withheld sensitive arms and failed to meet previous promises to Tehran. Iran’s isolation may grow, leaving it increasingly dependent on transactional relationships with Russia and China, which critics say exploit Tehran’s vulnerability for cheap resources and geopolitical leverage. “The fact remains Russia couldn’t prevent Israel’s mass strike on a country with which five months ago Russia had signed a strategic partnership agreement,” political scientist Andrey Kortunov wrote. “Moscow is clearly not prepared to go beyond political statements.” Wall Street JournalTHE AMERICAS
Lawmakers to Bondi: DOJ funding cuts threaten national security. Attorney General Pam Bondi faced bipartisan criticism in Congress on Monday over proposed Justice Department budget cuts amid escalating tensions with Iran. Lawmakers argued the $2.5 billion reduction for fiscal year 2026, which would eliminate about 5,000 positions, is ill-timed following the Trump administration’s bombing of Iranian nuclear sites and Iran’s missile retaliation on a U.S. base in Qatar. Rep. Tony Gonzales warned that cuts to national security and counterterrorism programs undermine U.S. readiness. Bondi remained noncommittal on revising the DOJ’s $33.6 billion request but stressed that the department is on “high alert,” especially regarding potential Iranian sleeper cells. Democrats Glenn Ivey and Frank Mrvan echoed calls to reassess the budget, with Mrvan warning of new threats like cyberattacks. Bondi urged Americans to pray for U.S. troops, noting, “It’s a frightening time.” Politico
US House Speaker Johnson says it is not time to consider war powers resolution. Following President Trump’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Democratic lawmakers have introduced multiple war powers resolutions to curb his authority to engage in military conflict without congressional approval. One resolution demands U.S. withdrawal from hostilities against Iran, citing a lack of consultation and Trump's provocative talk of regime change. A bipartisan measure also gained traction. However, House Speaker Mike Johnson dismissed the timing, arguing Trump acted within his powers. Despite Trump’s announcement of a temporary ceasefire, many lawmakers insist on a vote to reassert congressional war powers and prevent escalation. The growing divide reflects wider concerns about executive overreach, Middle East instability, and the limits of presidential military authority. ReutersReutersAxiosThe Guardian
Asia rushes exports to US as Trump’s tariff deadline looms. The U.S. trade deficit with Asia is growing as companies rush to import goods before President Trump’s threatened tariffs take effect in July. Exports to the U.S. from Vietnam and Thailand jumped 35% in May, while Taiwan’s rose nearly 90%, reversing typical seasonal patterns. The rush is driven by fear of steep tariffs, which could soon reverse the export surge and hurt regional economies. The U.S. trade deficit reached a projected $91 billion in May and may hit $643 billion in 2025, a record pace. Meanwhile, China’s exports to the U.S. fell despite a mid-May tariff truce, with exporters using “origin washing” to reroute goods. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation group cut its growth forecast to 2.6%, warning that continued trade tensions could harm economic stability across the region. BloombergSouth China Morning Post
Inside flying B-2 bomber missions.Pilots of the U.S. Air Force’s B-2 Spirit stealth bomber undergo extensive preparation, including nutrition and sleep training, before flying arduous missions that can last over 40 hours. The $2 billion bomber, used in the recent strikes on Iran, demands extreme endurance from its two-person crew. Mid-air refueling, often done in darkness, poses serious challenges as fatigue sets in. Despite its advanced stealth and fly-by-wire systems, the B-2’s success depends heavily on human performance. Since debuting in 1989, the B-2, which costs around $65,000 per hour to operate, has flown pivotal missions in Kosovo and Iraq. The Air Force plans to replace it with the B-21 Raider in coming decades, aiming for a fleet of 100. Reuters
U.S. Border Patrol is increasingly seen far from the border as Trump ramps up deportation arrests. Border Patrol agents are increasingly operating far from the U.S.-Mexico and Canada borders, a shift driven by falling border arrests—now at a 60-year low—and a shortage of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers. With ICE struggling to meet an internal target of 3,000 arrests per day and only 6,000 deportation officers, it’s relying on the 20,000-strong Border Patrol for help. Agents have recently joined ICE operations in cities like Los Angeles and Philadelphia. Under federal law, Border Patrol has broad authority within 100 miles of U.S. borders and coasts—a zone covering about two-thirds of the population—but can still operate nationwide with reduced authority to detain and question people. Critics warn this trend blurs agency roles and expands immigration enforcement deep into the interior. Associated PressTHE UKRAINE UPDATE
Ukraine says Zelensky-Trump meeting planned Wednesday at NATO summit.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump plan to meet Wednesday on the sidelines of the NATO summit in The Hague, according to a senior source in the Ukrainian presidency cited by AFP. Though Zelensky will not attend the main NATO working session—reportedly due to tensions with Trump—the two leaders are expected to hold talks in the early afternoon. The meeting will focus on Ukraine’s proposed purchase of a major defense package, including air defense systems, and on pushing for increased sanctions on Russia, specifically lowering the oil price cap from $60 to $45. Trump has so far resisted further sanctions despite Russia’s continued refusal to agree to a ceasefire. Al Arabiya English
Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities since Monday kill at least 18 and injure 62. Russia launched a series of deadly drone and missile attacks across multiple Ukrainian cities since Monday that killed at least 18 and wounded dozens more. They include an overnight assault on Kyiv early Monday that killed 10 people and injured 34, damaging a university campus and metro station. Another person also was killed in Kyiv Oblast. A missile attack early Monday killed three and injured 12 people in Odesa. Drone and artillery strikes overnight on Tuesday, meanwhile, killed four people and injured five in Kherson Oblast, while an early Tuesday drone strike injured three civilians in Kharkiv. ReutersKyiv IndependentKyiv IndependentKyiv Independent
Putin says Russia is ramping up production of Oreshnik missile. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Monday that Russia has begun serial production of its Oreshnik intermediate-range hypersonic missile, first used in Ukraine in November 2024. Putin claimed the system has performed well in combat, describing it as virtually impossible to intercept and possessing destructive power akin to a nuclear weapon—though Western analysts dispute its effectiveness, calling it experimental. The missile has a range of up to 5,500 kilometers, capable of reaching Europe and parts of the U.S. Putin previously threatened to deploy the Oreshnik in Belarus and warned of strikes on Ukrainian decision-making centers if Western weapons continue targeting Russia. Reuters
Ukrainian drone triggers fire in apartment building west of Moscow, official says. A Ukrainian drone struck a high-rise apartment building in Krasnogorsk, west of Moscow, early on Tuesday, causing a fire on the 17th floor and injuring two people, according to Moscow region Governor Andrei Vorobyov. The victims were hospitalized. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that Russian air defenses intercepted two additional drones targeting the capital. Russia’s Defense Ministry said nine drones were destroyed within 90 minutes before midnight, including in border areas like Kursk and Bryansk. Ukraine has increasingly used long-range drones, including in recent operations targeting Russian military aircraft deep within Russian territory. Reuters
Ukrainian forces attack oil depot in Russia's Rostov region. Ukraine’s military reported a successful strike Monday on an oil depot in Russia’s Rostov region, claiming the facility—used to supply Russian forces in occupied Luhansk and Donetsk—was set ablaze. The attack, conducted by special operations units along with rocket and artillery forces, targeted the Atlas plant near the Ukrainian border. Ukraine described it as part of broader efforts to undermine Russia’s military logistics and economic capacity. Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar confirmed a fire at an industrial site following a Ukrainian drone attack, while Russia claimed to have downed 14 drones overnight in the region.Reuters
Starmer and Zelensky agree to military production project in London.During a visit to London on Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a landmark defense co-production agreement. The three-year deal will boost Ukraine’s drone production and link British defense firms with frontline Ukrainian battlefield technology. The announcement, made at Starmer’s Downing Street residence, marks the first such partnership between the two nations and follows a broader 100-year UK-Ukraine cooperation framework. Zelenskiy also met with King Charles and parliamentary leaders, while both nations agreed to convene a "coalition of the willing" — excluding the U.S. — to coordinate next steps in Ukraine’s defense. Reuters
Nick Fishwick
The Cipher Brief
Russia's spy agency says Serbia sold ammunition to Ukraine via Bulgaria, Czech Republic. Russia’s SVR foreign intelligence agency on Monday accused Serbia of selling artillery ammunition to Ukraine via intermediaries in Bulgaria and the Czech Republic—both NATO and European Union members. The SVR claimed Serbian companies knowingly supplied rockets and mortar components ultimately destined for use against Russian forces. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, speaking before the allegation was made public, stated that Serbia had halted all arms exports and is redirecting ammunition to its own military. Serbia, seeking EU membership, balances ties with both Russia and the West. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov urged Belgrade to investigate and prevent future arms transfers. Reuters
Russia ordered 2 assassination attempts on popular journalist Dmytro Gordon, Ukraine security service says.The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Monday that Russia ordered two assassination attempts on prominent Ukrainian journalist Dmytro Gordon. SBU chief Vasyl Maliuk stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin authorized the plots in 2023 due to Gordon's sharp criticism of Moscow and his large audience in Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories. The first plot, involving a former pro-Russian Ukrainian lawmaker, aimed to use explosives or drones to target Gordon. The second attempt was led by a Dagestani Federal Security Service (FSB) operative posing as a fugitive, who surveilled Gordon for a planned $400,000 hit. Both groups were detained before carrying out the attacks. Kyiv Independent
ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Monday, June 23. Russian leaders are trying to sway NATO defense spending debates by framing their own military buildup as a defensive response, while demanding guarantees against Ukraine's NATO membership. President Vladimir Putin announced that major Russian military reforms, including new drone and missile forces and expanded divisions, will be completed in 2025 as part of long-term preparations for potential conflict with NATO. Putin also emphasized increased coordination among Russia’s internal security agencies to protect regime stability following past unrest. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Western allies, including Norway and New Zealand, continue to provide military aid and invest in Ukraine’s defense industry, particularly in drone and air defense technologies.
Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Borova, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka and in Sumy Oblast. Institute for the Study of WarEUROPE
Could this be the most significant NATO summit since the Cold War?This week’s NATO summit in the Netherlands is being called the most significant since the Cold War, as President Trump’s attendance follows U.S. strikes on Iran and renewed pressure on European allies. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte designed the summit to appease Trump with a landmark agreement: members pledging to spend 5% of GDP on defense. While this aims to retain U.S. military presence in Europe, challenges remain—Spain claims an opt-out, and cash-strapped countries struggle with the costs. Trump’s unpredictable stance, especially his soft approach to Moscow and pressure on Kyiv, has shaken Europe’s trust. NATO is also split on how to meet spending targets and improve defense coordination. With warnings that Russia could attack within five years, and Trump hinting at potential U.S. troop withdrawals, the summit could mark a turning point in Europe’s push for strategic independence and burden-sharing. BBC Deutsche Welle
NATO Aims to Boost Defenses Against Drones, Hacking and Sabotage. Ahead of its 2025 summit in The Hague, NATO is prioritizing homeland defense against evolving threats such as drones, cyberattacks, and sabotage. Prompted by recent Ukrainian and Israeli strikes that exposed vulnerabilities in adversary infrastructure, the alliance is shifting focus from traditional battlefronts to readiness and resilience. Leaders aim to allocate a portion of the proposed 5% GDP defense spending target to nonlethal needs—like logistics, transport, and cyber defense—critical for force mobilization. NATO planners warn that modern conflict may begin not with tanks but with infrastructure attacks. With growing recognition that the homeland is no longer a sanctuary, NATO seeks to bolster roads, ports, and communication networks while countering cyber threats, including from Russia and China. Wall Street Journal
Fearing war with Russia, Finland hardens NATO's north frontier.Amid rising tensions with Russia, Finland is fortifying its 1,340-kilometer border—the longest between NATO and Russia—following its 2023 NATO accession. Barbed-wire fencing, surveillance drones, and upgraded reservist training reflect fears of conflict fueled by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Finland accuses Moscow of weaponizing migration, prompting border closures that have hurt cross-border trade and divided families. Economic fallout includes a €300 million annual loss to local businesses. Finland is boosting its defense posture, expanding its reservist force to one million by 2031, stockpiling landmines, and installing a new NATO command post. Satellite imagery shows limited Russian military buildup nearby, but Finnish officials warn the threat is long-term. President Putin denies hostile intent, but Finnish leaders remain cautious. “Re-bordering” is now a strategic necessity, officials say, marking a shift from decades of cooperation to hardened deterrence on NATO’s northern frontier. Reuters
A Putin war with NATO would cost the world $1.5 trillion.A Bloomberg Economics report warns that if Russia were to attack NATO’s Baltic members—Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania—it could cost the global economy $1.5 trillion in the first year alone. The estimate includes warzone destruction, market selloffs, energy supply shocks, and supply chain disruptions. European officials now openly consider a Russian conflict with NATO plausible, with some general's warning Russia may be ready within five years. Though Russia currently lacks the capacity for a two-front war, it is outproducing NATO in munitions and expanding bases, particularly in Kaliningrad. The Baltics, viewed by Putin as historically Russian, are vulnerable due to geography and minority populations. A war could start with a hybrid provocation—like fabricating a crisis on the Moscow-Kaliningrad train route—prompting a Russian "rescue" mission. While Trump may urge restraint, European leaders fear he won’t act decisively. NATO is responding by boosting defense spending and hardening its eastern flank, while preparing for prolonged conflict. Bloomberg
Germany's Merz says Europe must end U.S. defense 'free-ride'. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared that Europe can no longer "free-ride" on U.S. security and must invest more in its own defense. Speaking Monday at the Day of Industry in Berlin, Merz warned that American tolerance for Europe's low defense spending "will not" continue, even under a future U.S. administration. He stressed the need for strategic independence, urging Europe to strengthen its capabilities and support Ukraine long-term against Russia’s rigid stance. Merz emphasized resilience not just militarily but politically, calling for protection against cyberattacks, disinformation, and sabotage. Germany plans to raise defense spending from 2.4% to 3.5% of GDP within five years. Deutsche Welle
Douglas E. Lute
The Cipher Brief
The Night Chancellor Merz Changed His Mind About Donald Trump. In the weeks following his February 2025 election, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz underwent a dramatic transformation in his defense and fiscal policy stance. Initially a staunch supporter of balanced budgets, Merz reversed course after witnessing President Trump publicly humiliate Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in the Oval Office, signaling a potential U.S. abandonment of NATO and Ukraine. Alarmed, Merz concluded that Germany must urgently rearm, regardless of cost, approving plans to double defense spending, costing over €1 trillion across 12 years. Behind closed doors, he worked with outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz to push through constitutional changes allowing new debt before a more fractured Bundestag could be seated. The fear of a possible Russian attack and credible intelligence suggesting Trump might withdraw the U.S. from NATO fueled Merz’s urgency. Though Trump ultimately did not announce NATO withdrawal, Merz remained convinced the threat was real and justified his pivot with a call to defend Europe “whatever it takes.” Politico
Canada and EU Strengthen Ties with New Defense Agreement.The European Union and Canada on Monday signed a landmark security and defense partnership during a summit in Brussels, signaling a deepening alliance amid rising global instability and increasing U.S. unpredictability under President Trump. The agreement—described by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as the bloc’s most comprehensive—includes cooperation on cyber, maritime, space, arms control, and support for Ukraine. It grants Canada access to the EU’s €150 billion joint defense procurement program, enhancing its defense industry’s global reach. The pact also launches talks on a digital agreement to align data regulations. With Trump pressuring NATO allies to spend more and threatening disengagement, Canada and Europe are seeking strategic autonomy and stronger bilateral ties. New York TimesReuters
Hungary and Slovakia block Russian sanctions package, Budapest says. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced Monday that Hungary and Slovakia are blocking the European Union’s proposed 18th sanctions package against Russia. The move comes in opposition to the EU’s plan to phase out Russian energy imports, which both countries rely on heavily. Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico also demanded compensation to offset energy impacts. The European Commission proposed the sanctions on June 10, targeting Russia’s energy revenues, banks, and defense industry. Hungary frequently resists such measures and warned that banning Russian oil and gas would hurt its economy. EU diplomats view the opposition as a negotiating tactic ahead of a leaders’ summit. Reuters
US urges Americans in Sweden to remain vigilant, citing threat of attack. The U.S. embassy in Sweden issued a security alert on Monday, urging Americans to remain vigilant amid reports that Iran may be pressuring Swedish criminal gangs, including the Foxtrot Network, to target U.S. and Israeli interests. The warning follows rising tensions after U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Iran’s retaliatory strike on a U.S. base in Qatar. Iran has denied links to such gangs. The Foxtrot Network was previously sanctioned by Washington and accused by Britain of carrying out attacks in Europe on Iran’s behalf. The alert comes amid broader concerns that Iran may use proxies globally as retaliation for military losses. Reuters
Georgia sends more opposition politician to prison. Georgia sentenced opposition leader Giorgi Vashadze to seven months in prison on June 24, part of a broader crackdown that has seen most major pro-EU opposition figures jailed. Vashadze, head of the Strategy Builder party, was convicted for refusing to testify before a parliamentary commission investigating alleged misconduct under former president Mikheil Saakashvili. He and three others sentenced Tuesday were also banned from public office for two years. The ruling Georgian Dream party, in power since a disputed 2024 election, denies vote-rigging allegations. Critics say Georgia is shifting toward authoritarianism and aligning more closely with Russia, despite its traditionally pro-Western stance. ReutersTHE MIDDLE EAST
Succession plans for Iran's Khamenei hit top gear. Iranian officials are accelerating efforts to plan for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s succession amid rising tensions with Israel and the U.S. Khamenei, 86, has gone into hiding with his family under tight security. A three-man committee from a top clerical body, appointed by Khamenei, is weighing two frontrunners: his hardline son Mojtaba, 56, and the more moderate Hassan Khomeini, the 53-year-old grandson of Iran’s revolutionary founder. Khamenei has previously opposed a dynastic handover, but pressure is mounting as recent attacks killed senior commanders. The regime seeks to ensure stability, though it’s unclear if any new leader could match Khamenei’s power. Officially, the Assembly of Experts will name the successor. Hassan Khomeini, linked to reformists, could present a more acceptable face amid public discontent. Some warn the Revolutionary Guards might back a lesser-known figure as a symbolic leader, lacking Khamenei’s authority but preserving their influence. Reuters
Steven Ward
The Cipher Brief: Could Iran's Judiciary Chief Be the Next Supreme Leader?
Beijing tells China ships in Strait of Hormuz to phone home, flags ‘shipping safety’. China has ordered all domestic shipping vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waters to submit daily reports on their movements, reflecting heightened concern over regional instability following U.S. airstrikes on Iran. The new mandate, issued on Monday by the China Shipowners’ Association, requires detailed tracking of both current and past transits dating back to early 2024. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil trade route, is under threat as Iran considers closure in response to escalating tensions with Israel and the U.S. Despite Iran’s parliament backing the measure, analysts believe closure is unlikely, as it would severely impact Tehran’s own economy and strain ties with China, its biggest oil customer. Nearly half of China’s seaborne oil imports come from the Persian Gulf. South China Morning Post
ASIA & OCEANIA
NATO chief Rutte argues China’s ‘massive’ build-up raises threat of Taiwan Strait conflict. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned on Monday that China’s rapid military expansion, especially around the Taiwan Strait, heightens the risk of a conflict that could involve Russia, and draw in European forces. Speaking ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague, Rutte said China’s unprecedented arms buildup poses global security risks, with Beijing potentially coordinating with Moscow to divide Western attention. NATO’s Indo-Pacific partners—Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand—are closely watching the situation. Rutte stressed that growing threats, including from Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China, demand greater defense investments. He reaffirmed the alliance’s commitment to Ukraine and warned of global repercussions if Beijing moved against Taiwan. Amid rising tensions, Rutte stressed the interconnectedness of Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific security. South China Morning PostFocus Taiwan
South Korea’s new leaders seek continuity on key defense issues. New South Korean President Lee Jae-myung recently appointed lawmaker Ahn Gyu-back as defense minister—a civilian with strong legislative and oversight credentials, signaling a shift from military-led defense leadership. Ahn’s moderate, reform-oriented stance reassures Washington of continued alliance cooperation. Despite Lee’s past criticism of U.S.-South Korea ties and cost-sharing agreements, he is expected to maintain key defense mechanisms, including the three-axis system, U.S. missile coordination, and the Camp David trilateral framework, especially given North Korea’s renewed provocations. While seeking peaceful unification talks and closer economic ties with China, Lee is unlikely to alter core security policies soon due to political risks. In parallel, he will carefully navigate upcoming negotiations with the U.S. on defense spending, likely seeking to restructure payments. Defense One
China to mark 80th WWII anniversary with military parade in Beijing in September. China will hold a major military parade on September 3 in Tiananmen Square to mark the 80th anniversary of its World War II victory over Japan. This is only the second time the People's Liberation Army (PLA) has held such an event, the first being in 2015. The parade will highlight China's historical role in defeating fascism and demonstrate its military modernization, including new technologies like cyber, hypersonic, and unmanned systems. President Xi Jinping will deliver a speech, and foreign leaders, including Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Belarus’ Alexander Lukashenko, are expected to attend. Though no foreign troops will march, war veterans, including former Kuomintang members, will be present. The event, featuring fighter jets and helicopters, comes amid global tensions and aims to assert China's strategic deterrence and its commitment to defending the post-WWII international order. South China Morning Post
Should Taiwan worry about the US being bogged down in the Middle East again? In the wake of U.S. airstrikes on Iran, Taiwanese analysts warn that a new Middle East conflict could overstretch American military resources and delay its response to a Taiwan Strait crisis. With U.S. forces already supporting Ukraine, experts fear a third front may strain arms supply chains and defense focus—key concerns for Taipei, which relies on U.S. weapons like Javelin missiles, Patriot systems, and 155mm artillery shells. While Taiwan’s ruling party views the U.S. strikes as a show of strength, others stress that China, unlike Iran, has a robust defense industry. Experts caution Taiwan against over-reliance on the U.S. and urge expanded security ties with Japan and Australia. Still, some believe the strikes were limited and that U.S. Indo-Pacific deployments remain intact, reaffirming American commitment to the sovereign island’s defense. South China Morning Post
China not likely to use navy to secure Hormuz Strait, analysts say. China is unlikely to deploy its navy to secure the Strait of Hormuz if Iran threatens closure, despite its dependence on Middle Eastern oil, according to an expert at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Instead, Beijing is expected to rely on quiet negotiations to protect its interests, as it did with Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. China is Iran’s top economic partner, supported by a $400 billion strategic deal signed in 2021 and complex workarounds to U.S. sanctions, including renminbi payments and covert oil shipments. CNAS analysts also noted that the U.S. strikes on Iran may offer strategic lessons for Beijing, though China’s approach to Taiwan would differ given stronger defenses. As tensions escalate, American resources may be drawn further into the Middle East, delaying its planned pivot to Asia. Experts warn the crisis marks only the start of deeper U.S.–Iran confrontations. South China Morning Post
Martin Petersen
The Cipher Brief
EU foreign policy chief calls for ‘dose of realism’ in China relations.EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged a “dose of realism” in dealing with China, citing its role in cyberattacks, coercive trade practices, and enabling Russia’s war on Ukraine. Her Monday comments followed an EU foreign ministers' meeting that set the agenda for July talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, ahead of a major EU-China summit next month. Kallas stressed the difficulty of maintaining normal ties with Beijing amid growing security concerns. While the EU remains marginalised in Middle East diplomacy, officials are pushing for a tougher stance on China. NATO’s upcoming summit will also address these issues, with the U.S. calling for stronger allied unity against threats from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea amid rising global instability. South China Morning Post
US denounces Hong Kong’s 'repression' of Independence Day celebrations.Washington has condemned Hong Kong's reported warnings to students against participating in U.S. Independence Day events, calling it “repression” and “interference.” According to media reports, Hong Kong's Education Bureau sent notices suggesting that such celebrations could violate the National Security Law, which punishes acts like subversion and foreign collusion. The U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong criticized the move as a sign of insecurity and “fear of freedom," and confirmed that it would still hold a private July 4 event. The 2020 law, imposed by Beijing in the wake of 2019 protests, has drawn international criticism for stifling free speech and dissent in the former British colony. ReutersSouth China Morning Post
Japan firm blames faulty space laser for doomed moon mission. Japanese company ispace confirmed that a faulty laser range finder caused its Resilience lunar lander to crash earlier this month during descent, marking its second failed moon landing in two years. The lander, descending too quickly at 138 feet per second, lost contact just seconds before impact near the moon’s Mare Frigoris region. NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter later confirmed the crash site. Ispace previously lost its first lander in 2023 due to software issues. Of seven recent private lunar landing attempts, only Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost, which launched alongside Resilience in January, has succeeded. Despite the failures, ispace plans two more missions, with the next attempt in 2027, in partnership with NASA and Japan’s space agency. Associated PressSouth China Morning Post
Thailand shutters border crossings with Cambodia as spat intensifies. Thailand has shut nearly all land border crossings into Cambodia due to escalating security concerns amid a border dispute that recently turned deadly. The move follows armed clashes that killed a Cambodian soldier, and has led both nations to impose retaliatory measures, including Cambodia’s suspension of Thai fuel imports. The Thai military announced that tourists, traders, and vehicles are now barred from entering Cambodia through seven border provinces, with limited exceptions for humanitarian cases. The closures aim to address rising political, diplomatic, and military tensions, as well as support a crackdown on illegal scam centers in Cambodia. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra also vowed to cut off essential supplies, such as electricity, to regions hosting illicit activities. ReutersAssociated PressBloombergAFRICA
Russia, Mali sign trade deals, eye nuclear energy cooperation. Russia and Mali signed agreements on Monday to strengthen trade and economic ties, with President Vladimir Putin hosting Malian junta leader Colonel Assimi Goita at the Kremlin. Though current trade is limited, Putin emphasized potential cooperation in areas such as geology, energy, logistics, and humanitarian efforts. A key agreement involved nuclear energy, building on previous discussions to construct a Russian-designed low-power nuclear plant in Mali. Russia is also backing a new gold refinery in the country, aiming to give Mali, which lacks a certified refinery, more control over its natural resources. Russian mercenary support has helped Goita’s government since it expelled French and UN forces, and while the Wagner Group recently announced its withdrawal, Russia's African Corps remains active. The talks signal deepening ties between the two countries amid Mali’s strategic pivot away from Western alliances. Reuters
As gold prices surge, West Africa mine operators launch drones to detect wildcat miners. Record gold prices are fueling a surge in illegal mining across West Africa, intensifying deadly clashes between artisanal miners and corporate operations. At Ghana’s Tarkwa gold mine, drones and rapid-response teams patrol for intruders, often uncovering unlicensed operations. These wildcat miners—backed increasingly by local groups or by foreign funding, including from China—pose environmental and economic risks, siphoning gold and shortening the lifespan of formal mines. With unregulated mining sustaining millions in the region, tensions have escalated, resulting in nearly 20 deaths since late 2024. Companies like Newmont and AngloGold Ashanti face frequent site incursions, prompting urgent calls for military protection. Ghana alone lost over 229 metric tons of artisanal gold to smuggling between 2019 and 2023. To combat the crisis, Ghana is deploying AI-driven drone surveillance and excavator-tracking systems, while miners spend heavily on private security. Reuters
Kenya set to charge police officers with murder over killing of blogger. Kenyan prosecutors have approved murder charges against six individuals, including three police officers, over the death of blogger and teacher Albert Ojwang while in police custody—an incident that has sparked widespread protests. Ojwang, 31, died earlier this month following his arrest over allegedly defamatory social media posts. Police initially claimed Ojwang committed suicide, but an autopsy revealed he died from assault. One officer testified that he was told to rough up Ojwang on “orders from above.” More protests are expected Wednesday, coinciding with the anniversary of last year’s deadly parliamentary demonstrations. The suspects are set to be arraigned Tuesday. ReutersBBCRFICYBER, TECH & MARKETS
US stock futures rise after Trump says ceasefire reached between Israel and Iran. U.S. stock futures increased on June 23 after President Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. S&P 500 emini futures grew 0.3% and Nasdaq futures gained 0.5%, hinting that traders project a positive opening for Wall Street on Tuesday. Reuters
The Middle East Is in Turmoil. U.S. Frackers See No Reason to Pump More Oil. President Trump urged U.S. oil producers to ramp up drilling amid rising Middle East tensions, warning against letting crude prices surge. However, fracking companies remain hesitant, citing falling oil prices, overproduction by OPEC, global economic slowdowns, and high tariffs. Despite a recent rally, prices quickly dropped to $68.51 a barrel after Iran’s retaliation signaled limited disruption to energy infrastructure. Industry leaders argue current market volatility makes new drilling too risky, with many large firms having already cut budgets and reduced active rigs to their lowest levels since 2021. Analysts say only sustained prices above $65–$100 per barrel, or a major disruption like closure of the Strait of Hormuz, might shift plans. Still, public drillers would move slowly, prioritizing shareholder returns over expansion. Meanwhile, tariffs on steel and aluminum add to production costs, further dampening enthusiasm for quick drilling increases despite Trump’s pressure. Wall Street Journal
Possible Iranian hacking prompts Israel to advise the public to disconnect internet security cameras. Israeli cybersecurity sources are warning the public to disconnect internet-connected security cameras over concerns that Iranian hacks of the devices may be used to gather real-time intelligence and guide missile targeting. Refael Franco, a former Israeli cybersecurity official, told an interviewer that Iranian operatives have attempted to access private surveillance systems to aid in missile strike damage assessments. Israel's National Cyber Directorate has confirmed that CCTV systems have been targeted by Iran's cyber operations. Earlier in June, Israel prohibited government officials from using the internet or telecommunications network-linked devices over fears of hacking and surveillance. The RecordJerusalem PostWired
U.S. official says Chinese startup DeepSeek shares user data with Beijing intelligence services. A senior U.S. official alleges that the Chinese AI startup, DeepSeek, is assisting China's military and intelligence operations by providing user data and statistics. In addition, the unidentified State Department official told Reuters that DeepSeek is seeking out shell companies in Southeast Asia to access high-end semiconductors barred from export to China under U.S. restrictions. According to the official, DeepSeek shares user information and statistics with Beijing's surveillance network, a practice that heightens privacy concerns for the app's millions of users worldwide. Previously, DeepSeek has been accused by U.S. legislators of sending U.S. user data to China through "backend infrastructure" operated by the Chinese telecommunications firm, China Mobile. Reuters
British government commits over $673 million to quantum computing initiatives. The U.K.’s Labour government has announced it will commit more than $673 million for quantum computing and related technologies as part of its industrial strategy. The funding will be used to boost R&D, develop advanced infrastructure, and accelerate applications in healthcare and defense sectors, among others. Recent U.S. acquisitions of the British quantum startups Oxford Ionics and Oxford Instruments quantum division have increased government concerns that the U.K. may lose control of strategic tech assets. The government believes the impact of these sales may be offset by funding to fuel domestic quantum computing initiatives. Government officials say quantum technology could result in millions in economic savings and transform public sector operations like the National Health Service. Cybernews
New Huawei laptop using dated chip technology indicates bite of U.S. export restrictions. Computer sector analysts suggest that Huawei's new MateBook Fold laptop, which is powered by a chip based on years-old technology, may be evidence of China's inability to develop advanced semiconductors due to U.S. export restrictions. TechInsights, a leading semiconductor industry information platform, noted that the use of domestically produced 7 nm chip technology “likely means that SMIC (Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp.) has not yet achieved a 5nm-equivalent node that can be produced at scale.” A TechInsights statement on the Huawei laptop said U.S. chip restrictions probably are impeding SMIC's advances "in more advanced nodes across chips for mobile, PCs and cloud/AI applications.” Bloomberg
Huawei marks unexpected advances in data center systems, Ascend chip output. A recent technical paper by Huawei and Chinese AI infrastructure startup, SiliconFlow, reveals that Huawei's advanced data center architecture, CloudMatrix 384, which is powered by Ascend 910 chip technology, outperforms the Nvidia GPU-based SGLang fast-serving framework for large language models (LLMs). The results were demonstrated on both inference and decoding phases in running DeepSeek's R1 reasoning model. The CloudMatrix system consists of 384 Ascend 910C neural processing units (NPUs) and 192 Kunpeng server central processing units. The paper also described Huawei's 910C AI processor that features a dual-die architecture, integrating two identical computing dies in a single package. Although Huawei's Ascend chips still trail U.S. competitors by "a generation," chip "stacking and clustering" methods yield computing performance comparable to the most advanced systems. According to one sector analysis, 700,000 units of Huawei’s Ascend 910 series will ship this year, indicating success in mobilizing China’s chip equipment supply chain. South China Morning Post
Cyber researchers uncover troubling ‘hallucination’ trends in LLM’s used to generate code. A study by researchers at three U.S. universities has identified a new type of threat to the software supply chain: package hallucinations. Nearly all software developers now use AI to write code, opening a door for threat actors to exploit this growing trend. "Package" hallucinations occur when an AI-generated large language model (LLM) creates code that directs developers to a package that doesn't exist. This new form of package confusion attack, the study says, "poses a critical threat to the integrity of the software supply chain.” In a study of 16 major LLM's used for code generation, researchers discovered that hallucinated packages occurred in 5.2 percent of code generated by commercial models like GPT-4 and Claude, and 21.7 percent for open-source models like CodeLlama and DeepSeek Coder. In addition, the study revealed a “staggering 205,474 unique examples of hallucinated package names,” underscoring the “severity and pervasiveness of this threat.” Cybernews
Russia-linked hackers conduct elaborate phishing campaign posing as State Department officials. Advanced social engineering attacks using phishing emails impersonating State Department officials are being used by Russian hackers who dupe targets into providing app-specific passwords to bypass multi-factor authentication (MFA) and access Gmail accounts. The campaign has targeted academics and critics of the Russian government. According to Google's threat intelligence unit, hackers sent carefully crafted phishing messages to trick recipients into creating app-specific passwords providing access to their Gmail accounts. Researchers from The Citizen Lab described an incident in which a targeted individual believed he was sharing an app-specific password to securely access a State Department platform but was in fact providing the attacker full access to their Google account. The Google threat unit, which believes the hackers could be linked to Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service, said the spearphishing campaign started in April and continued through the beginning of June. BleepingComputer
New York Times analyzes the growing global divide in access to AI computing resources. A New York Times analysis indicates an expanding global digital divide in the distribution of AI systems, separating nations with sizable computing power from those without. The U.S., China, and the E.U. are the biggest beneficiaries of this divide, hosting more than half of the world's most powerful data centers used for developing complex A.I. systems. Only 16 percent of the world's nations -- 32 countries -- possess this level of compute power. The U.S. and China are particularly well equipped with over 90 percent of data facilities used for AI work while Africa and South America are almost entirely lacking in AI computing complexes. The UN has warned that the digital divide, which had been narrowing with the proliferation of smartphones and internet access worldwide, may widen in the absence of efforts to spread AI resources to underserved areas. Many countries have responded to their comparative lack of AI-related technologies by providing AI developers with access to land and cheaper energy and committing public funds to acquire chips and build out data centers. New York TimesREPORT INFO
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