Report for Monday, June 2, 2025

Report for Monday, June 2, 2025

• Ukraine and Russia hold second round of talks in Istanbul
  
  
• Ukraine says its drones hit 41 bombers deep inside Russia, causing $7 billion in damage
  
  
• Conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki wins Poland’s presidential election
  
  
• Iran poised to dismiss US nuclear proposal, says Iranian diplomat
  
  
• Hegseth Warns Allies About China, Presses Defense Spending

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Russia's Nuclear Rhetoric: Cold War Redux. Hans Kristensen, Director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, analyzed Russia’s nuclear posture, doctrine shifts, and strategic signaling amid the Ukraine war. Kristensen, a leading authority on nuclear arsenals and co-author of the Nuclear Notebook series, stated that Russia maintains a military stockpile of approximately 4,300 warheads, the world’s largest. He noted that while Moscow has modernized its land-based missiles and submarines, much of its rhetoric, including the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, is more about psychological signaling than an actual shift toward nuclear use. Russia’s revised doctrine, which lowers the threshold for use in response to conventional threats, reflects its effort to deter deeper Western involvement in Ukraine. Despite the saber-rattling, Kristensen emphasized that actual use remains highly unlikely unless a large-scale war breaks out between NATO and Russia. Meanwhile, the U.S. and NATO have responded more subtly but significantly, adjusting nuclear operations and posture in Europe. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

FBI investigating ‘targeted terror attack’ against peaceful gathering in Colorado. A peaceful rally in Boulder, Colorado, supporting the release of Hamas-held hostages in Gaza, was attacked on Sunday, leaving at least eight people injured, two critically. The suspect, 45-year-old Mohamed Sabry Soliman, reportedly used a makeshift flame thrower and incendiary device while shouting “free Palestine.” Two of the victims were airlifted to a burn unit at a hospital. Authorities, including local police, the FBI, and the National Counterterrorism Center, are investigating the incident, and President Trump has been briefed. While FBI Chief Kash Patel called it a “targeted terror attack,” Boulder Police said they were not treating it as terrorism yet but acknowledged it could be ideologically motivated violence or a hate crime. The incident occurred during a walk organized by Run For Their Lives, which described the event as a weekly, peaceful show of solidarity. Community leaders and officials, including Israel's UN ambassador, the Colorado governor, and local Jewish organizations, condemned the attack, which has sparked heightened concern for the safety of Jewish communities across the globe, particularly as it coincided with the eve of Shavuot. Reuters Axios CNNNew York Times

Trump, China’s Xi will likely speak soon, says Treasury's Bessent. U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping are expected to speak soon to resolve trade disputes, including issues with critical minerals, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. On Sunday, Bessent stated that China has been withholding essential products crucial for global supply chains, accusing them of violating an agreement to roll back tariffs and restrictions. The White House expects a conversation between Trump and Xi shortly, though no specific date is set. Bessent suggested the issue might stem from a glitch in the Chinese system or be deliberate. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett expressed hope for a positive conversation this week, aiming to ease tensions and move forward with trade negotiations. Reuters CNBC Barron's

The rare minerals battle behind Rubio's ban on Chinese students. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s abrupt announcement to cancel U.S. visas for all Chinese students was directly linked to rising tensions over trade with China, Axios reports. This move, which impacts up to 280,000 Chinese students, followed China’s decision to restrict exports of rare-earth minerals essential for U.S. defense and technology industries, a retaliatory action amid trade negotiations. These minerals, such as samarium, terbium, and dysprosium, are used in military systems and vital technology, and are largely controlled by China under its “Made in China 2025” plan. This gives Beijing global leverage. Rubio’s decision, fueled by President Trump’s anger at China’s “bad faith” in trade talks, was also a political message targeting the Chinese Communist Party, many of whose leaders send their children to American universities. The move sparked criticism from education groups warning against racial profiling and xenophobia. Despite the initial optimism in a U.S.-China trade deal, the rare-earth restrictions remain, stalling talks. The administration sees the student visa move as both a national security measure and a negotiation tactic in the battle for rare-earth minerals and magnets. Axios

Harvard Has Trained So Many Chinese Communist Officials, They Call It Their ‘Party School.’The Trump administration is planning to cancel or tighten visas for Chinese students in the U.S., especially those with ties to the Chinese Communist Party. This move, part of a broader effort to limit Chinese influence, targets prestigious institutions like Harvard, a long-standing destination for China’s rising bureaucrats. Alumni include Xi Jinping’s top trade negotiator and former Vice President Li Yuanchao, retired vice premier Liu He, a grandson of former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin, and Xi’s own daughter, Mingze. China has long used U.S. universities, including Harvard, Stanford, and Syracuse, for mid-career training of officials to learn governance and public policy. Harvard has even been called the “top party school” outside China. Critics warn the crackdown could amount to racial profiling, but the Trump administration views it as a way to safeguard U.S. security and protect industrial secrets from alleged espionage. The move also coincides with escalating trade tensions, especially over rare-earth mineral supplies essential for American industries. Wall Street Journal

U.S. indicts British man over alleged plot to smuggle military tech to China. A British man, John Miller, 63, has been indicted in the U.S. for allegedly attempting to pass sensitive American defense technology to China. U.S. authorities say Miller and Chinese national Cui Guanghai tried to smuggle an encryption-decryption device to Beijing, using a blender for concealment. Both were arrested in Serbia in late April and are accused of soliciting U.S. defense items, including missiles, drones, and radar systems, for illegal export to China. They also allegedly harassed a Chinese American artist critical of Beijing by trying to install a tracking device on his car and damaging it. U.S. prosecutors claim the plan was uncovered in a sting operation involving FBI agents posing as arms dealers. If convicted, Miller and Cui face up to 20 years under the U.S. Arms Export Control Act, plus 10 years for smuggling. The incident comes amid rising U.S.-China tensions, including warnings from Beijing over Washington’s statements about Taiwan. Politico EU Bloomberg BBCThe Guardian

Unease at F.B.I. Intensifies as Patel Ousts Top Officials. Since his confirmation as FBI director, Kash Patel has worked to reshape the bureau along lines consistent with the views of the Trump administration. Patel and his deputy, Dan Bongino, have purged senior FBI officials, forced others into retirement or leave, and implemented sweeping changes to agency priorities, especially focusing on immigration and revisiting past cases tied to right-wing grievances. Their actions, often perceived as politically motivated, have replaced experienced personnel with loyalists, raising concerns about the bureau’s capacity and independence. Some moves, such as closing the Washington field office’s elite corruption unit, appear to shield Trump allies. The increased use of polygraph tests and opaque decision-making processes have created a climate of fear. Critics warn these changes are undermining the FBI’s credibility and risking its ability to pursue sensitive investigations. Patel claims these reforms are necessary to correct a compromised agency, but many see them as attempts to politicize federal law enforcement. New York Times

Patel and Bongino's choppy transition from roasting the FBI to running it.Kash Patel and Dan Bongino, once vocal critics of the FBI and champions of conspiracy theories about Jan. 6, the “Russia hoax,” and Jeffrey Epstein, are now in charge of the bureau under President Trump, who himself harbors deep distrust of the agency. Their leadership is facing backlash from three fronts: MAGA supporters upset by their recent denials of deep-state plots, a skeptical FBI workforce resistant to their policies (including prioritizing immigration arrests and changes to training), and Trump, who has expressed doubts about their denials of conspiracies against him. Patel and Bongino’s comments, including pleas for patience while they uncover alleged hidden files, reflect their struggle to balance the demands of their base, the workforce, and the White House. Critics warn their loyalty to Trump undermines their independence, but supporters claim they’re restoring accountability to the FBI. Axios

Trump pulls Musk associate's nomination for NASA administrator. President Trump announced he’s withdrawing Jared Isaacman’s nomination to lead NASA, citing a “thorough review of prior associations.” Isaacman, a billionaire and close associate of Elon Musk who has led SpaceX missions, was on the verge of Senate confirmation. His ties to Musk and past donations to Democrats raised concerns, though he described himself as “relatively apolitical.” The decision follows Musk’s departure from the administration’s Department of Government Efficiency and comes amid Trump’s plans to slash NASA’s budget by 25%. Isaacman responded graciously, saying he’d continue to support Trump and NASA. The move has stirred controversy, with Republican Senator Tim Sheehy calling Isaacman a “strong choice” and opposing his withdrawal. Trump plans to replace him with someone “mission aligned,” but the decision has sparked pushback within the GOP, highlighting divisions over NASA leadership and the broader direction of U.S. space policy under Trump. AxiosPoliticoNPRCBS News Bloomberg

The great undoing: Trump's presidency is reeled in by courts.In his first 130 days, President Trump has aggressively pushed executive actions, testing the limits of presidential power. Courts, however, have issued numerous rulings temporarily blocking many of his initiatives, including efforts on immigration, education, federal workforce cuts, and tariffs. Notably, even major moves like eliminating birthright citizenship face uphill legal battles. Trump’s tactics resemble past presidential strategies, but his confrontational approach toward judges is unique. While the ultimate fate of these policies remains uncertain, the courts’ decisions so far have set the stage for intense, high-stakes legal showdowns that will likely define the scope of Trump’s presidential power. Axios

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Ukraine and Russia hold second round of talks in Istanbul. Ukraine will attend peace talks on Monday in Istanbul, where its delegation—led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov—plans to present a comprehensive roadmap for ending the war. The proposal begins with a full and unconditional 30-day ceasefire, monitored by the U.S. and third countries, with potential for rolling extensions. Key confidence-building measures include the exchange of all prisoners of war, the return of abducted Ukrainian children, and the release of civilian hostages. Ukraine demands robust international security guarantees and rejects any restrictions on its military or alliances, asserting its right to join the European Union and NATO. Territorial negotiations will begin only after the ceasefire and will not recognize Russian gains since 2014. Sanctions relief for Russia would be phased, with a snapback mechanism in place if the agreements are violated. The ultimate goal is a leaders’ summit between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin to finalize terms on security, territory, reparations, and a permanent peace agreement backed by international enforcement. Reuters

Ukraine says its drones hit 41 bombers deep inside Russia, causing $7 billion in damage.Ukraine carried out its deepest and most ambitious drone strikes into Russian territory to date, targeting strategic air bases housing nuclear-capable bombers on Sunday. The operation, reportedly led by Vasyl Malyuk, the chief of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), used drones concealed in mobile wooden houses transported by trucks. Strikes hit five bases across Russia, including in Siberia and the Murmansk region, destroying or damaging 41 aircraft used in the frequent cruise missile air attacks against Ukraine, including Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 bombers. Also hit were A-50s, which detect enemy aircraft and missiles, besides providing intelligence on targets and directions to Russian fighter jets. President Volodymyr Zelensky touted “the absolutely brilliant result’ and described it as Ukraine’s longest-range operation, involving the launch of 117 drones. He also said Ukraine operated near a regional headquarters of the Russian Federal Security Service, known as the FSB. The SBU reported that “Operation Spiderweb” caused $7 billion in damages and disabled 34% of cruise missile bombers in key Russian airbases. Russia downplayed the damage but acknowledged the attacks. Bloomberg Wall Street Journal Associated PressNew York TimesWashington Post

ANALYSIS–An astonishing raid deep inside Russia rewrites the rules of war.Ukraine’s “Spider Web” drone operation marks a turning point in modern warfare by redefining how deep-strike raids can be conducted. Rather than using large, long-range drones or missiles, Ukraine deployed small quadcopters smuggled inside trucks and launched them from within Russian territory, up to 4,000 kilometers from the front lines. The operation destroyed or damaged 41 strategic Russian aircraft, including rare A-50s and Tu-95 bombers, demonstrating both Ukraine’s operational reach and its innovative use of commercial technology, automated targeting, and local networks. What makes this strike revolutionary is its blend of deception, logistical complexity, and minimal-cost delivery systems, which exposed vulnerabilities in Russia’s military infrastructure and doctrine. Western analysts suggest it signals a broader threat to concentrated airpower globally. The operation, 18 months in the making, shows that even heavily guarded strategic assets are now susceptible to asymmetric, distributed drone warfare—forcing militaries worldwide to rethink base security, airpower survivability, and the future of deterrence. The Economist

Seven killed by bridge blasts in Russian regions bordering Ukraine on eve of peace talks. Two separate bridge explosions in Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions on Sunday derailed a passenger and freight train, killing at least seven people and injuring over 70. Russian investigators confirmed both bridges were deliberately blown up and opened criminal probes. The Bryansk incident occurred as a Moscow-bound train carrying 388 passengers passed beneath a collapsing overpass; three carriages derailed, killing seven and injuring dozens, including children. Hours later, a railway bridge collapsed in Kursk, injuring freight train workers. Ukraine has not claimed responsibility, but the attacks follow a pattern of cross-border strikes amid escalating hostilities. Kyiv’s military intelligence said it derailed a Russian military train in occupied Zaporizhzhia. The incidents come just before scheduled peace talks in Istanbul on Monday. Russian officials blamed Ukrainian sabotage. ReutersNew York TimesWashington Post Politico EUAssociated Press

Russia shatters drone record, launches 472 UAVs at Ukraine the night before Kyiv's strike on Russian airfields. Russia launched a record 472 Shahed-type drones at Ukraine late Saturday and early Sunday, surpassing its previous record by over 100 drones. In addition to the drone barrage, Russia also fired three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and four Kh-101 and Iskander-K cruise missiles. According to Ukraine’s Air Force, air defense units successfully shot down 210 drones, while another 172 were neutralized using electronic warfare systems. The drone interceptions occurred across 18 different regions of Ukraine. The record-shattering drone attack came on the eve of Ukraine's "Operation Spider Web,” a major strike on Russia’s military airfields. Kyiv Independent

Ahead of Istanbul peace talks, Russia kills 9, injures 49 civilians across Ukraine. Russian attacks across Ukraine in the past day killed at least nine civilians and injured 49, including children, regional officials said on Monday. Strikes spanned multiple regions—Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Chernihiv—damaging homes, infrastructure, and medical facilities. The attacks followed Ukraine’s major drone strike that reportedly damaged a third of Russia’s strategic aviation fleet. Russia launched 80 Shahed drones, missiles, and decoys; Ukraine intercepted many via air defense and electronic warfare. Peace talks are scheduled to take place in Istanbul later on Monday. Kyiv Independent

12 Ukrainian soldiers dead, 60 injured after Russian missile strike Sunday on training center. A Russian missile strike hit Ukraine’s 239th military training ground on Sunday morning, killing 12 soldiers and injuring 60 others—many of them young trainees sheltering at the time. In response, Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi, commander of Ukraine’s Land Forces since November 2024, announced his resignation, citing personal responsibility for the tragedy. Drapatyi expressed condolences, saying the soldiers “were supposed to study, live, fight – not die.” A statement on the attack did not identify the location of the training grounds, nor the specific type of missile used by Russia. Reuters Kyiv Independent

As 50,000 Russian troops amass, Ukraine's Sumy Oblast braces for a large-scale offensive. As Russia amasses around 50,000 troops near Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast, Ukrainian officials and soldiers brace for a potential large-scale offensive. While Russian forces have already captured four border villages using fast-moving assault tactics, the full extent of the Kremlin’s intentions remains unclear. Limited media access and minimal disclosures from the Ukrainian military have created a fog of war. Analysts suggest that Sumy is a secondary front intended to tie down Ukrainian troops, with Russia’s main push still focused on the Donbas. Nevertheless, the sheer size of the Russian force has prompted mass civilian evacuations — nearly 56,000 people — and raised concerns over Ukraine’s ability to reinforce the region. Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered the creation of a “security buffer zone,” and some Ukrainian sources warn that if successful, Moscow will push deeper. Despite nightly drone strikes, life in Sumy continues under strain, as soldiers monitor a tense, slow-moving front. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine orders mandatory evacuation from 11 additional villages in Sumy Oblast. Sumy Oblast Governor Oleh Hryhorov on Saturday ordered the mandatory evacuation of 11 more villages amid escalating Russian attacks, citing a "constant threat to civilian life." This brings the total number of evacuated settlements to 213. Russian forces recently seized four villages and continue cross-border assaults, prompting fears of a new offensive. Kyiv Independent

Russia steps up offensives in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts, Syrskyi says. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on Saturday that Russia has intensified assaults across Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Sumy oblasts. While Russia's primary efforts remain focused on Donetsk's Pokrovsk, Toretsk, and Lyman fronts, activity in Zaporizhzhia is rising. Ukraine claims to have inflicted heavy losses—over 34,000 Russian troops killed in May—and is reinforcing high-risk zones. Syrskyi also noted that Ukrainian forces conducted 58 long-range strikes into Russia in May, targeting military-industrial sites. Russia has redeployed elite units to the Kursk front. President Vladimir Putin visited the region following Russia’s claim to have "liberated" it, although Ukraine says some territory remains under its control. Kyiv Independent

After talks with Zelensky and Macron, US senators warn: Putin ‘is preparing for more war.’After visiting war-torn Kyiv and meeting President Volodymyr Zelensky on Friday and French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday in Paris, U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham (R) and Richard Blumenthal (D) warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is stalling peace talks while preparing a new military offensive. The bipartisan pair is championing a sweeping sanctions bill targeting Russia’s war economy, including 500% tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, gas, and uranium–aimed at China and India. Backed by 82 senators, the bill has yet to gain President Donald Trump’s full support, though Graham says it could help Trump pressure Putin into real negotiations. Both senators described the current moment as critical, urging swift U.S. and allied action to halt Russian aggression. Peace talks are set to resume in Istanbul, but Graham and Blumenthal dismissed them as a “charade,” saying Moscow is using diplomacy to buy time for further attacks. They praised France’s alignment and warned that failing to act now could drag NATO—and U.S. troops—into deeper conflict. New York TimesThe HillReutersAssociated Press

Trump’s Appetite for Punishing Putin Is About to Get a Key Test. A bipartisan sanctions bill targeting Russia presents a critical test for President Donald Trump’s stance on punishing President Vladimir Putin. Backed by 82 senators, the measure, co-sponsored by Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, would impose severe tariffs on countries buying Russian oil and gas. Trump has hesitated, portraying himself as a neutral mediator in peace talks, but mounting congressional momentum may limit his options. If passed, the bill would force Trump to either sign or reject a widely supported “tough on Russia” policy, risking political fallout. While some in Trump’s circle worry sanctions could derail diplomacy, others argue the bill gives Trump leverage to pressure Putin. European allies and lawmakers alike now look to Congress, not Trump, to lead the response. Whether Trump supports or blocks the bill will signal if his grip on U.S. Russia policy is loosening amid bipartisan frustration with Moscow’s continued aggression and stalled peace efforts. Bloomberg

Trump 'very surprised, disappointed' at Russian attacks on Ukraine amid peace talks. President Donald Trump expressed his disappointment over Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian cities amid ongoing peace negotiations. Speaking at a news conference in the Oval Office on Friday, Trump said he was “very surprised” and “very disappointed,” noting, “I don’t like being surprised.” He criticized President Vladimir Putin’s actions during what he believed were promising talks, referencing deadly strikes on cities like Kyiv between May 24–26. Despite the attacks, Trump has resisted implementing proposed sanctions, arguing on May 28 that doing so might jeopardize a potential peace deal. Kyiv Independent

Putin’s tough stance on a Ukraine peace plan shows his resolve on Russia’s demands. Russian President Vladimir Putin is signaling he will only accept peace with Ukraine on his terms, continuing heavy missile and drone strikes while demanding Ukraine surrender the four regions Russia annexed in 2022. While publicly open to talks and praising U.S. President Donald Trump’s diplomacy, Putin is also playing hardball—refusing a 30-day truce and setting conditions Kyiv and the West reject. Trump, once confident he could end the war swiftly, is now warning Putin against stalling and has threatened sanctions. Meanwhile, Russian forces are intensifying offensives in Donetsk, Sumy, and Kharkiv, aiming to increase pressure ahead of further negotiations in Istanbul. Analysts say Moscow wants to demonstrate that it holds the upper hand and hopes Trump will pressure Ukraine to compromise. Putin has also reappointed Kremlin aide Vladimir Medinsky, known for taking a hard line, to lead Russia’s delegation. The move signals no shift in Russia’s demands and a willingness to prolong the war indefinitely. Associated Press

Macron irks China with remarks over Ukraine, Taiwan, and North Korea.At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron drew sharp criticism from China after linking Russia’s war in Ukraine to potential Chinese aggression toward Taiwan. Macron warned that allowing Russia to seize Ukrainian territory without consequence could embolden Beijing. China rebuked this as a “double standard,” insisting Taiwan is an internal matter unrelated to Ukraine. Macron also urged Asian nations to form coalitions independent of both the U.S. and China, calling for strategic autonomy and warning that failure to resolve the war in Ukraine would damage Western credibility in Asia. He further warned China that if it fails to stop North Korea from aiding Russia in Ukraine, NATO could be drawn into the Indo-Pacific. Macron’s remarks reflect France’s evolving stance amid growing geopolitical instability, while China’s downgraded participation in the summit highlighted its disapproval of such Western messaging. Politico EUReutersReuters

Moody's maintains 'Ca' rating on Ukraine as effects of war continue.Moody’s has reaffirmed Ukraine’s ‘Ca’ credit rating, reflecting the severe economic damage of the ongoing war with Russia and uncertainty surrounding peace talks. The agency noted subdued growth due to security risks, labor shortages, and damage to energy infrastructure. Ukraine recently defaulted on a $500 million payment on its GDP warrants. Moody’s projects GDP growth to slow to 2.5% in 2025. Fitch also maintains Ukraine’s rating at “Restricted Default.” ReutersReuters

Thousands of Ukraine’s children vanished into Russia. This one made it back. Illia Matviienko’s return from Russian captivity highlights the broader tragedy of tens of thousands of Ukrainian children forcibly taken during the war. After surviving the siege of Mariupol and losing his mother, Illia was taken by Russian troops, hospitalized, and nearly adopted under a new identity. His grandmother, Olena, spotted him in a propaganda video and undertook a dangerous cross-border mission to rescue him. Illia's story has become a symbol in Ukraine’s fight to repatriate abducted children—an issue central to peace negotiations and cited in war crimes charges against President Vladimir Putin. Despite international pressure, only around 1,300 of the estimated 19,500–100,000 taken children have been returned. Many, like Illia, face identity erasure, reeducation, or illegal adoption in Russia.Washington Post

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Friday, May 30-Sunday, June 1. SUNDAY– Russia’s growing drone output is overwhelming Ukraine’s defenses, with many UAVs now bypassing interception. In parallel, President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed a broad-based delegation for peace talks in Istanbul on Monday, while Russia continues to delay presenting formal negotiation terms. SATURDAY– Russian officials continue to assert territorial ambitions in Ukraine that extend beyond the four oblasts Russia has illegally annexed. State Duma Defense Committee Chair Andrei Kartapolov warned that Ukraine risks losing cities such as Dnipro, Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv if it delays a peace settlement. The rhetoric aligns with Kremlin narratives about historical claims to eastern and southern Ukraine under the concept of "Novorossiya." These public declarations reinforce that Russia is not pursuing good-faith negotiations but is instead committed to a prolonged military campaign, with President Vladimir Putin reportedly confident that gradual advances can eventually yield victory. Concurrently, Putin signed a May 30 decree enabling the state takeover of defense enterprises that fail to meet wartime production targets, thereby preparing Russia’s economy for a long-term war and possibly a future confrontation with NATO. FRIDAY–Russian United Nations envoy Vasily Nebenzya warned that Ukraine must accept peace on Russia’s terms or face defeat, reiterating demands that the West stop arming Ukraine and that Kyiv end its mobilization efforts. Other Russian officials echoed calls to address the “root causes” of the war, claims often framed by Moscow as NATO expansion and supposed discrimination against Russian speakers. Despite this rhetoric, Russia is sending the same low-level delegation to Istanbul as it did in May, signaling its lack of commitment to good-faith negotiations.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Vovchansk, Toretsk, and western Zaporizhia, while Russian forces gained ground in Sumy Oblast and near Lyman, Toretsk, Kurakhove, Novopavlivka, and Velyka Novosilka. Sunday-Institute for the Study of War  Saturday-Institute for the Study of WarFriday-Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

Conservative nationalist Karol Nawrocki wins Poland’s presidential election. Conservative historian Karol Nawrocki narrowly won Poland’s presidential runoff with 50.89% of the vote, defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski in a result that highlights Poland’s deep ideological divide. Nawrocki, backed by the former ruling party Law and Justice and supported by President Donald Trump, is expected to steer Poland in a more nationalist and euroskeptic direction. He campaigned on a promise to ensure policies favor Poles over other nationalities, including refugees from neighboring Ukraine. Though Poland’s prime minister holds most executive power, the president wields influence over foreign policy and can veto legislation — a power that will likely frustrate the reform agenda of pro-European Union centrist Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Nawrocki, 42, is a political newcomer known for promoting patriotic narratives and opposing progressive social trends. His victory was celebrated by Trump allies, including U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who hinted at stronger military ties under his leadership. Nawrocki replaces conservative President Andrzej Duda on Aug. 6. Associated PressReutersPolitico EUWall Street Journal

America's next top general in Europe will also lead NATO forces, officials say. President Donald Trump is expected to nominate Air Force Lieutenant General Alexus Grynkewich as the next Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), maintaining the long-standing tradition of a U.S. general leading NATO forces. Trump privately informed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte of the decision, easing allies’ concerns that the U.S. might relinquish the post amid broader calls for Europe to take more responsibility for its defense. While the administration continues to pressure Europe to increase defense spending and has discussed future troop reductions, retaining U.S. leadership at NATO signals continued engagement for now. Grynkewich would succeed General Christopher Cavoli, who oversaw U.S. military support for Ukraine since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Reuters

State Department questions Europe’s commitment to democracy. The Trump administration has sharply shifted its foreign policy posture by openly criticizing Western European allies for alleged democratic backsliding, particularly on free speech, while softening its stance toward authoritarian regimes. The State Department, under Secretary Marco Rubio, has launched a new “Office of Natural Rights” and imposed visa restrictions on European officials, citing concerns over social media regulation and political expression. Critics, including former diplomats, have called the move hypocritical, given the administration’s record on democratic norms and its delayed release of the annual human rights report, which is reportedly being edited to reflect President Donald Trump’s worldview. This pivot has strained transatlantic relations, puzzled European leaders, and raised concerns that the U.S. is politicizing human rights to advance a populist agenda. Washington Post

German Chancellor Merz to meet Trump in Washington on Thursday. Germany's new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, will travel to Washington to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday, German and U.S. officials said on Saturday. This will be Merz's first visit to the United States since taking office on May 6, and comes amid high tensions between the trans-Atlantic partners over trade and the Russian war in Ukraine. ReutersPolitico EUAssociated PressBloomberg

Saab CEO sees Europe streamlining defense demands amid spending push. Saab CEO Micael Johansson said Saturday that European countries need to streamline defense requirements to create scale and efficiency as they ramp up military spending. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Johansson warned against each nation tailoring unique systems, which complicates production and interoperability. With European Union members expected to raise defense spending targets above 2% of GDP under U.S. pressure, Johansson said Europe must boost capabilities even if the Ukraine war ends. He also highlighted growing international defense collaboration, including technology transfers, and noted Saab’s focus on unmanned fighter systems to reduce pilot risk in high-threat environments. Reuters

UK announces billions in fresh defense splurge amid worries about Russia. The U.K. will unveil its most ambitious defense overhaul since the Cold War on Tuesday, aiming to counter growing threats from Russia and meet rising NATO expectations. The £3 billion initiative, led by Defense Secretary John Healey and guided by former NATO chief George Robertson, includes six new munitions factories, upgrades to military housing, and the procurement of 7,000 long-range weapons. The plan boosts U.K. munitions spending to £6 billion over four years and sets targets of 2.5% of GDP for defense by 2027, rising to 3% by the early 2030s. Britain is also preparing for cyberwarfare with a new cyber command and “Digital Targeting Web.” Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the strategy sends a clear “message to Moscow” that Britain is ready to fight if necessary. The review comes as NATO debates raising defense spending to 5% of GDP, amid pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump for Europe to bolster its own security. Politico EUAssociated PressBloomberg

Sweden on Track Toward 5% NATO Target, Defense Minister Says. Sweden is on track to meet NATO’s proposed defense spending goal of 5% of GDP, with 3.5% allocated to pure military expenditures and 1.5% to related defense activities by 2030, according to Defense Minister Pål Jonson. Speaking on Saturday, Jonson emphasized Europe’s growing urgency to bolster defense in response to Russian aggression. He warned that after any peace deal with Ukraine; Russia is likely to rebuild rapidly and reposition forces near Baltic and Nordic states. Swedish intelligence aligns with Danish assessments that Russia could be ready for a large-scale attack on Europe within five years. Bloomberg

EU’s Kallas welcomes Trump’s ‘tough love’ on arms spending. European Union foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas, speaking Saturday at a defense forum in Singapore, described U.S. pressure on Europe to boost defense spending as “tough love,” adding, “it’s love nonetheless, so it’s better than no love.” Responding to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s comments that Europe must “own more of their own security,” Kallas acknowledged internal divisions but noted Europe had shifted toward backing its peace project with hard defense. She emphasized the interlink between European and Pacific security, citing Chinese support for Russia and North Korean fighters in Ukraine. The EU recently adopted a €150 billion defense package. Politico EU

Sweden will intensify insurance checks on foreign ships as concerns about Russia escalate. Sweden is tightening maritime oversight amid growing concerns over Russia’s shadow fleet. Starting July 1, the Swedish Coast Guard and Maritime Administration will collect insurance data not only from vessels docking at Swedish ports but also from those passing through its territorial waters and exclusive economic zone. The move targets aging, poorly maintained ships used by Russia to transport oil, gas, and stolen Ukrainian grain, many of which are already under European Union sanctions. The urgency of this initiative was underscored on Sunday after the Panama-flagged tanker Meshka, en route to Russia’s port of Vysotsk with nearly 1 million liters of oil, ran aground near Landskrona. Although no spill occurred, Swedish authorities are investigating the incident for potential negligence. Associated PressUkrainska Pravda

EU officially retires its ‘no cherry-picking’ Brexit line. The European Union has officially dropped its longstanding “no cherry-picking” stance on Brexit, signaling a more flexible approach to UK relations. EU Ambassador to the UK Pedro Serrano called the phrase “no longer helpful,” reflecting a shift toward pragmatic cooperation. At a recent London summit, Brussels and London agreed to explore sector-specific agreements on energy, agri-foods, fishing, carbon trading, law enforcement, and youth visas—areas where mutual interests align. The roadmap anticipates dynamic alignment with EU rules for UK participation. Formal negotiations will begin once the European Commission secures member state mandates, with priority given to time-sensitive issues like fishing and energy. Both sides expressed optimism. Politico EU

THE MIDDLE EAST

U.S. envoy says Hamas response to hostage deal ‘totally unacceptable.’U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff on Saturday called Hamas’s response to a Gaza ceasefire proposal backed by President Donald Trump “totally unacceptable,” saying it sets back efforts to end the 20-month war. The proposal called for a 60-day truce during which Hamas would release 10 living hostages and 18 bodies in exchange for over 1,200 Palestinian prisoners, while negotiations for a permanent ceasefire would continue. Hamas sought amendments, including phased hostage releases, complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and firm U.S. guarantees that the war would end. The group also demanded unrestricted humanitarian aid and reconstruction support. Israel approved the deal, but opposes Hamas’s conditions, insisting on the group’s disarmament and dissolution. Despite Trump’s earlier optimism, Witkoff said Hamas’s demands “only take us backward.” The humanitarian crisis worsens amid resumed Israeli strikes, internal Palestinian discontent with Hamas, and looted aid shipments. Talks remain stalled as both sides hold to opposing goals. Wall Street Journal ReutersAxiosNew York Times

Israel denies Gaza ministry accusations that it killed more than 30 aid seekers. At least 31 Palestinians were killed and nearly 200 injured near a U.S.-backed aid distribution site in Rafah, southern Gaza, on Sunday, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry and the International Committee of the Red Cross. Eyewitnesses and medics allege Israeli gunfire caused the casualties as thousands sought food; all those killed reportedly suffered gunshot wounds to the head or chest. The Israeli military denied firing at civilians near or within the aid center but acknowledged earlier warning shots about a kilometer away. The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which operates the site, said aid was distributed “without incident” and blamed “false reports” on Hamas. Critics, including the UN, accuse the GHF of bypassing humanitarian norms and forcing starving civilians into chaotic, unsafe conditions. Philippe Lazzarini of UNRWA called the scene a “death trap.” The incident comes amid stalled ceasefire talks and growing criticism of both Israel’s conduct and the flawed aid system. Reuters CNNNew York Times

Who is Mohammed Sinwar, the Hamas military figure Israel says it killed?An Israeli strike on Gaza’s European Hospital complex on May 13 killed Mohammed Sinwar, the brother of slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, believed by Israel to be the group’s military wing commander. The strike also killed Muhammad Shabana, commander of Hamas’s Rafah brigade, and at least 28 others. Hamas has not confirmed these claims. Mohammed Sinwar, long sought by Israel and nicknamed "the Shadow Man," grew up in a Khan Younis refugee camp. He allegedly helped plan the October 7 attacks and rose in power after his brother's death, overseeing military operations and ceasefire talks. Highly secretive, Sinwar had survived six assassination attempts and was instrumental in the 2006 kidnapping of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. His death follows Israel’s targeted killings of Hamas leaders and reflects ongoing efforts to weaken the group’s leadership in Gaza, though analysts note this could empower Hamas’s overseas leadership, which is seen as more open to negotiations. Washington Post

Saudi Arabian FM says Israel’s move to block Ramallah meeting proof of 'extremism'.Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan has condemned Israel’s refusal to allow a planned visit by Arab ministers to the West Bank, calling it evidence of Israel's “extremism and rejection of peace.” The ministers, part of an Arab contact group, were scheduled to meet Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah. Israel claimed the ministers intended to take part in a “provocative meeting,” while Palestinian and Arab officials said the delegation aimed to discuss ending the Gaza war, supporting the Palestinian Authority, and promoting a Saudi French U.N. initiative for a roadmap to Palestinian statehood. Ayman Odeh, an Israeli Arab lawmaker, argued that Israel blocked the visit to prevent strengthening the Palestinian Authority. The Saudi French conference is set for June 17-20 in New York, aiming to secure international recognition of a Palestinian state and discuss post-ceasefire security and reconstruction in Gaza. Reuters AxiosNew York Times

Iran poised to dismiss US nuclear proposal, says Iranian diplomat. Iran is expected to reject a U.S. proposal aimed at resolving the long-standing nuclear dispute, according to a senior Iranian diplomat. The proposal, delivered by Oman's Foreign Minister as part of mediation efforts, fails to address Iran's key demands, notably regarding uranium enrichment and the immediate removal of U.S. sanctions. While the U.S. suggests lifting nuclear-related sanctions gradually, Iran insists on their full and immediate removal, citing the significant impact on its oil-based economy. The U.S. continues to maintain its position against uranium enrichment on Iranian soil, which Iran defends as necessary for peaceful nuclear purposes. Iran's nuclear negotiation committee, guided by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, views the U.S. proposal as one-sided and impractical. The current U.S. administration, under President Trump's renewed "maximum pressure" strategy, has intensified sanctions and threatened military action. Since Trump's withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and reimposition of sanctions in 2018, Iran has progressively violated the deal's terms. Reuters

U.S. gives Iran updated nuclear deal offer. The U.S. has sent Iran a written proposal aimed at breaking the deadlock in nuclear talks, centered on Tehran’s demand to continue uranium enrichment. The plan, influenced by Oman, includes creating a regional consortium to enrich uranium for civilian use under international monitoring, though Washington wants the enrichment facilities outside Iran. Another option discussed involves the Islamic Republic suspending enrichment in exchange for recognition of its right to do so. Talks have stalled as Iran insists on enrichment rights, while the U.S. opposes them. Meanwhile, the IAEA reports the country now has enough enriched uranium for 10 nuclear bombs and continues to withhold information on undeclared sites. The U.S. hopes to first reach a basic agreement before moving to technical details. Iran says it will respond based on its national interests. Axios

IAEA releases definitive report detailing Iran’s past secret nuclear activities. A confidential IAEA report has revealed that Tehran conducted coordinated, secret nuclear activities with undeclared materials at three sites under investigation: Lavisan-Shian, Varamin, and Turquzabad. These findings, presented to the IAEA Board of Governors, show a long-standing undeclared nuclear program in Iran, with the use of uranium metal for tests linked to nuclear weapons development. The report, a stern warning from the nuclear watchdog, has prompted the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany to push for a resolution declaring Iran in violation of its non-proliferation obligations. The Islamic Republic, which denies pursuing nuclear weapons, dismissed the report as “politically motivated” and threatened to retaliate. On Sunday, however, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi asserted that he had underscored Iran’s “continuous cooperation” in a conversation with IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi. Meanwhile, Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, close to weapons-grade levels, continues to grow, raising alarms internationally. The country now has enough material for roughly 10 nuclear weapons. The disclosure is expected to complicate ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and may eventually bring Iran before the U.N. Security Council. Reuters Associated PressWall Street Journal Washington PostAssociated Press

Syrian leader faces the challenge of foreign militants who helped him win power. In the wake of leader Bashar al-Assad’s fall, new Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa is facing mounting challenges from the foreign fighters who once helped him seize power. Many of these Islamist militants, hailing from the Middle East, Europe and Central Asia, are now deeply embedded in Syria, complicating U.S. demands for their expulsion in exchange for easing sanctions. Though Sharaa has integrated some into the military and offered citizenship, tensions remain. Islamist hard-liners criticize his reluctance to impose sharia law and accuse him of collaborating with Western powers, like the U.S. and Turkey, to target extremist factions. Despite efforts to contain them by assigning roles or restricting activities, the risk of sectarian violence and internal discord persists. Sharaa’s balancing act, which involves appeasing his supporters, placating foreign allies, and managing his militant backers, is under growing scrutiny, especially as foreign fighters fear returning home to persecution. With rising dissatisfaction among hard-liners, and international pressure, Sharaa’s leadership remains precarious. Washington Post

Islamic State Says It Targeted Syrian Forces in Bombings.The Islamic State (ISIS) has claimed responsibility for two bombings in Syria, attacks that markits first direct attack on the new government since it took power in December. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the bombings killed and wounded government soldiers and militia members in Sweida Province, where ISIS has been largely inactive for a decade. The attacks coincide with renewed sectarian tensions and growing anti-government sentiment in the region. The U.S. has increased troop presence in Syria following Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, citing the threat of an ISIS resurgence. Syrian and U.S. intelligence has foiled several recent ISIS plots, including attacks in Damascus. New York Times

Syria and Saudi Arabia agree to boost economic cooperation after Western sanctions eased. Syria and Saudi Arabia have announced plans to boost economic cooperation to benefit both nations and create jobs for Syrians after Western sanctions on Damascus were eased. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan, visiting Damascus over the weekend, stressed the importance of reactivating Syria’s economy, which has been dormant for decades. Saudi businessmen are expected to explore investments in oil, infrastructure, IT, and agriculture. Saudi Arabia and Qatar also pledged financial aid to Syria’s public sector. This meeting follows Syria’s recent energy agreement with Qatari, Turkish, and American companies to rebuild its electricity grid, signaling a new era of global cooperation. Associated Press

ASIA & OCEANIA

Hegseth Warns Allies About China, Presses Defense Spending. At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Saturday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued his most forceful warning yet about China, declaring that a Chinese attempt to conquer Taiwan would bring “devastating consequences” and that such a threat “could be imminent.” He urged Indo-Pacific allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, citing growing Chinese aggression and warning against Beijing’s economic leverage. Hegseth emphasized that the Trump administration prioritizes the region and seeks deterrence, not conflict. China responded angrily, with its foreign ministry denouncing the remarks as “deplorable” and steeped in a “Cold War mentality.” The Chinese Defense Ministry accused the U.S. of provoking instability and turning the Asia-Pacific into a “powder keg.” Rear Admiral Hu Gangfeng, leading China's downgraded delegation, called Hegseth’s accusations “groundless” and intended to stoke confrontation. China’s embassy warned the U.S. not to “play with fire” on Taiwan, declaring it an internal matter. BloombergReutersWall Street JournalReutersAssociated Press

Europe bristles at US proposals at Asian gathering, India-Pakistan hostility on show.At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, longstanding U.S.-China tensions were overshadowed by a growing divide between the U.S. and Europe over military commitments in Asia. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned of China’s “imminent” threat but urged European nations to prioritize security on their own continent, allowing the U.S. to focus on Asia. Some European leaders, however, pushed back, arguing that European and Pacific security are interconnected. French President Emmanuel Macron stressed his country’s Indo-Pacific ties and proposed a “third path” balancing relations with both Beijing and Washington. German Chief of Defense Carsten Breuer asserted that Berlin would not cease participation in Asia-Pacific security. Regional military analysts noted that Europe’s entrenched commercial and defense ties in Asia, including long-term deployments and defense deals, complicate any rapid shift in focus. Meanwhile, Finland’s defense minister agreed with Hegseth’s stance, highlighting the need for European countries to strengthen their own defense to free up U.S. resources for Asia. Reuters Bloomberg

Philippines defense chief says China needs to overcome 'deficit of trust.’ Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro stated that China is facing a "deficit of trust and credibility" that hampers the restoration of its strained defense ties with the Philippines. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Teodoro highlighted China’s growing military assertiveness in the South China Sea, describing it as both expansive and aggressive. He expressed frustration with Chinese military officials, who he said stick to propaganda-driven talking points and serve the Communist Party’s interests. Teodoro emphasized that China’s intensified activities have particularly targeted the Philippines, even more so than other ASEAN countries. Despite this, he voiced confidence in the Washington-Manila security alliance, reiterating the goal of peacefully deterring China’s advances. Reuters Bloomberg

Chinese spying on Dutch industries 'intensifying': Dutch defense minister. Chinese espionage efforts targeting the Dutch, particularly in the semiconductor sector, are intensifying, according to Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue security meeting in Singapore, Brekelmans highlighted that China is keen on acquiring intellectual property from the Dutch semiconductor industry, which is technologically advanced. He cited intelligence reports identifying China as the main cyber threat to the Netherlands, with continued and increasing activity since last year. Dutch intelligence agencies have previously attributed cyber espionage to China, revealing in 2023 that Chinese state-backed hackers infiltrated a Dutch military network. Brekelmans warned that Beijing is leveraging its economic influence for geopolitical purposes and pressuring the Netherlands. He emphasized the need for the country and the EU to reduce dependence on China for critical raw materials and to protect key industries and interests from foreign interference. China’s foreign ministry has not responded but routinely denies cyber espionage allegations. Reuters Politico EU

North Korea Gets a Weapons Bonanza from Russia. North Korea is rapidly modernizing its military, showcasing new weapons including AI-directed attack drones, advanced tanks, naval destroyers with supersonic missiles, and new air-defense systems. This surge comes amid its deepening military ties with Russia, fueled by mutual needs: Pyongyang supplies artillery and missiles for Russia’s war in Ukraine, and in return, receives fuel, food, and military technology. Analysts warn this collaboration is shifting the military balance on the Korean Peninsula. Kim Jong-un’s strategy has revitalized North Korea’s conventional forces, previously hampered by sanctions and economic woes, and allowed his military to gain real-world combat experience in Ukraine. Moscow’s support has helped North Korea improve its outdated military capabilities, including air defense and drone technology. However, the full extent of Russia’s willingness to share sensitive technology remains uncertain. This growing alliance challenges U.N. sanctions and creates new security concerns for the region, particularly for South Korea and the U.S. New York Times

China calls the shots in Myanmar’s civil war. China has become the dominant force in Myanmar’s civil war by securing its core interests, most notably a 2,500-kilometer oil-and-gas pipeline from Ramree Island to Yunnan province. Since the 2021 coup, Beijing has adroitly balanced relations with the junta and rebel groups to ensure the pipeline’s uninterrupted flow. A key player is the Arakan Army (AA), a powerful ethnic Rakhine militia that now controls much of Rakhine State. Initially at war with the junta, the AA has avoided targeting Chinese infrastructure and even tacitly accepted China’s deployment of mercenaries to protect pipeline assets. China, in turn, has cultivated ties with the AA as insurance against junta instability. Similar dynamics play out across central and eastern Myanmar, where resistance groups have refrained from attacking the pipeline due to Chinese leverage over arms supplies. While Western support for democracy has faltered, all sides in Myanmar’s conflict now recognize that Beijing—not Washington—is the ultimate power broker. The Economist

India confirms that it lost fighter jets in brief clashes with Pakistan. Indian military chief Anil Chauhan has confirmed for the first time that India lost an unspecified number of fighter jets during its short-lived conflict with Pakistan in May but dismissed Islamabad’s claims of downing six jets as “absolutely incorrect.” Chauhan underscored the importance of understanding the tactical errors that led to the losses, rather than focusing on the numbers. He acknowledged that India quickly rectified its mistakes and resumed operations, conducting precision strikes deep inside Pakistan. Chauhan also downplayed the risk of nuclear escalation, calling it “far-fetched,” and highlighted open communication channels with Pakistan during the crisis. The conflict was the worst between the two nuclear-armed neighbors in 50 years, sparked by a deadly attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir that New Delhi blamed on Islamabad. Chauhan dismissed Pakistan’s claims of Chinese weaponry effectiveness and stressed that India has established clear red lines, with the conflict’s future stability depending on Pakistan’s actions. Bloomberg The IndependentAl JazeeraReuters

India launches global charm offensive after conflict with Pakistan. India is launching a major diplomatic campaign, deploying lawmakers and ex-ambassadors to over 20 nations to reshape international perceptions after its recent military clashes with Pakistan. The conflict, sparked by a deadly attack in Kashmir, saw India carry out its deepest strikes inside Pakistan in decades. Prime Minister Modi’s government is portraying these actions as part of the global fight against terrorism, but critics say New Delhi has struggled to garner the support it expected, with many countries viewing India and Pakistan as equals. India’s outreach includes engaging with U.N. Security Council nations and diaspora communities, while emphasizing cultural diplomacy. However, the campaign has faced internal criticism, with opposition figures accusing the government of bypassing parliamentary debate and focusing more on optics than substantive foreign policy. Meanwhile, Islamabad is planning its own diplomatic efforts to counter India’s narrative. Despite India’s global push, many observers note the challenges of controlling the narrative abroad as easily as at home. Washington Post

India and Pakistan’s Air Battle Is Over. Their Water War Has Begun. India and Pakistan are dealing with renewed tensions over water sharing following their recent military clashes. India suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty—a key 1960 agreement governing the use of the Indus River system—after accusing Pakistan of backing a deadly April attack in Kashmir. Though India claims its move is temporary and conditional on Pakistan renouncing terrorism, critics see it as an effort to pressure Islamabad into revising a treaty India views as favoring its neighbor. Pakistan, heavily reliant on the Indus waters for agriculture and flood management, called the suspension an “act of war,” warning of severe consequences if it continues. Both countries are grappling with climate change, population growth, and the risks of disrupted water flows. Analysts argue New Delhi’s tactics are aimed at demonstrating strength and responding to its domestic water demands, while Pakistan’s already fragile water security faces heightened uncertainty. New York Times

Russia accepts Taliban's nominated ambassador to Moscow. The Kremlin has officially accepted the Taliban’s nomination of an ambassador to Moscow, the Afghan foreign ministry announced Sunday, signaling deepening ties between the two countries. This move follows Russia’s April decision to suspend its longstanding designation of the Taliban as a terrorist organization, a step towards normalizing relations with Afghanistan’s leadership. Although no nation has formally recognized the Taliban government since its 2021 takeover, China was the first to accept a Taliban ambassador in 2023, followed by other countries like Pakistan. Afghan Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi expressed hope for expanded cooperation with Russia in various fields. Diplomats note that formally presenting an ambassador’s credentials to a foreign head of state signals a shift towards official recognition. The growing relationship comes as both Russia and Afghanistan face global sanctions and isolation, prompting them to seek alternative partnerships. Reuters

AFRICA

Insurgents overrun Mali base, killing dozens of soldiers, sources say. An Al Qaeda-linked group, Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), claimed responsibility for a deadly attack on a military base in Mali’s Boulkessi region on Sunday, where over 30 soldiers were killed, according to security sources. The Malian army confirmed a withdrawal but did not provide official casualty numbers. JNIM has also claimed recent attacks across the restive Sahel region, including in Burkina Faso and Niger, with over 400 soldiers reportedly killed since early May. The violence exacerbates instability in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, all governed by juntas that replaced civilian governments amid growing jihadist threats. Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Senators call Trump administration to reinstate the cyber review board for Salt Typhoon investigation.Several Senate Democrats, including Mark Warner, Ron Wyden, Richard Blumenthal, and Elissa Slotkin, have urged Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to reestablish the Cyber Safety Review Board (CSRB), which was disbanded earlier this year under the Trump administration. The board was investigating the Salt Typhoon cyberattacks, in which Chinese-linked hackers breached networks of major U.S. telecom firms. The senators criticized the CSRB’s dismissal, saying it deprived the public of a full account of the scope and impact of the breaches, and stressed the need for root-cause analyses and recommendations to strengthen cybersecurity. The CSRB, established in 2021, had conducted reviews of major cyber incidents, including the Log4j vulnerability and attacks linked to China. Despite its termination, Secretary Noem has publicly questioned why more isn’t known about Salt Typhoon. The senators warned that disbanding the CSRB has undermined U.S. cyber defense readiness, with the DHS and CISA declining to comment on the situation. The Record

Meta says it dismantled covert influence operations tied to China, Iran, Romania. Meta researchers have reported disrupting three covert influence campaigns from China, Iran, and Romania aimed at manipulating political discourse across multiple countries using fake social media profiles. The China-linked network targeted users in Myanmar, Taiwan, and Japan, spreading pro-Beijing propaganda and attacking political and military leaders. The Iranian campaign focused on Azeri-speaking audiences in Azerbaijan and Turkey, using fake female journalist and activist profiles to criticize U.S. and Israeli policies. Linked to Iran’s Storm-2035 network, it used AI-generated content. The Romanian operation targeted domestic users across Meta platforms and other social media, creating fake personas to drive users to off-platform sites. Despite sophisticated efforts, it failed to generate real engagement. Meta stated these campaigns were removed before they built significant audiences. Romania has previously faced influence efforts linked to Russia, with the Interior Ministry noting a recent disinformation push aimed at disrupting the second round of its presidential election. The RecordThe Hacker News

DDoS incident disrupts internet for thousands in Moscow.A massive DDoS attack targeted Russian internet provider ASVT last week, disrupting services for tens of thousands of people in Moscow and nearby areas for several days. The attack, detected on Tuesday, continued through Friday, affecting ASVT’s mobile app, website, and intercom systems in large residential complexes. ASVT attributed the attack to Ukraine’s pro-Kyiv “IT Army,” although no official claim has been made. The incident mirrors a similar cyberattack in March that affected over 200,000 residents via another provider, Lovit. Russian telecom firms have increasingly been targeted by pro-Ukrainian hackers amid the ongoing conflict. The Record

Under new legislation, Australian ransomware victims must now inform the government if they pay up. Last week, Australia passed a law obliging organizations earning over AUD $3 million to report ransomware payments within 72 hours to the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD). The new law targets about 6.5% of businesses and aims to improve visibility into ransomware incidents, which are significantly underreported. Companies failing to report could face civil penalties. The law comes amid rising cyberattacks against Australian businesses, such as Optus and Medibank. Critics argue the mandate may only shame companies without reducing ransomware attacks. The U.K. is considering a similar approach, possibly banning payments by public and critical infrastructure organizations and giving the government authority to block certain payments. Despite reports that ransomware payments dropped globally in 2024, experts like Jeff Wichman believe many victims still pay. He argues stronger law enforcement and company resilience, rather than regulations, are key to countering ransomware, as payments don't guarantee recovery and often enable further attacks. The RecordInfosecurity Magazine

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