Report for Friday, June 6, 2025

Report for Friday, June 6, 2025

• What Musk and Trump Risk Losing in Their High-Stakes Breakup
  
  
• Russian missile and drone strikes kill 5, injure 73 in Ukraine
  
  
• U.K. Faces ‘Extraordinary’ Threat from Russian and Iranian Plots, Official Warns
  
  
• Israel assured U.S. it won't strike Iran unless talks fail
  
  
• How Chinese plane radar tracks moving targets without breaking radio silence

CIPHER BRIEF EXCLUSIVES

Opinion: The President’s Path to the Right Side of History. Rob Dannenberg—a former senior Central Intelligence Agency official who served as chief of operations for the Counterterrorism Center, chief of the Central Eurasia Division, and head of the Information Operations Center—argues that President Trump has a chance to reclaim moral leadership by publicly demanding that President Vladimir Putin end the war in Ukraine. Dannenberg likens this moment to President Ronald Reagan’s 1987 “tear down this wall” appeal, asserting that Ukraine’s recent successful drone attacks on Russian strategic sites signal both operational brilliance and growing vulnerability within Putin’s regime. Dannenberg criticizes Trump’s “peace theater” with Putin, warning that the Russian leader is exploiting talks to buy time, not pursue real negotiation. He urges Trump and Republican leaders to support new sanctions and deepen Western backing for Ukraine. According to Dannenberg, Ukraine is far from losing; it’s demonstrating resilience and strategic capability that may ultimately threaten the stability of Putin’s autocracy. The Cipher Brief

THE AMERICAS

The epic breakup of Trump and Musk. The high-profile alliance between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk unraveled spectacularly on Thursday, erupting into a public feud with major political and financial implications. The fallout began when Musk criticized Trump’s flagship tax and spending bill as fiscally irresponsible. Trump, in turn, lashed out, threatening to cancel billions in government contracts to Musk’s companies, including SpaceX and Tesla. Musk retaliated by calling for Trump’s impeachment, suggesting he was linked to Jeffrey Epstein, and floating the idea of forming a new centrist political party. The spat sent Tesla stock plummeting and split Republican lawmakers between two of the party’s most powerful figures. Musk, once a major Trump donor and adviser, claimed he was instrumental in Trump’s 2024 win and warned Republicans of losing his financial backing. Though Musk later signaled openness to reconciliation, the rift exposed a deepening divide between MAGA populism and tech-aligned conservatism. ReutersNew York TimesBloombergFinancial TimesWashington Post

8 Ways Musk and Trump Could Inflict Pain on Each Other. Billionaire Elon Musk and President Donald Trump now pose real threats to each other after their alliance collapsed. Both wield vast power and have at least four sharp tools at their disposal to inflict damage on each other. Musk’s options: Musk could withhold his remaining $100 million pledge and bankroll Trump’s GOP rivals. He can rally his X followers, float a centrist party, or back impeachment talk. Musk claims Trump is delaying the release of the files on the late pedophile Jeffrey Epstein due to personal ties. He threatened to decommission SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft, vital for NASA missions. Trump’s options: He’s threatened to terminate billions in federal deals with Musk’s companies. Allies are calling for probes into Musk’s immigration status and drug use. He can revoke security clearances, crippling SpaceX’s national security work. Trump can shut down initiatives linked to Musk and target him through federal agencies. New York Times

NASA and the Defense Department Rely on SpaceX in So Many Ways. SpaceX has become indispensable to U.S. space operations, making President Trump's threat to cancel its federal contracts a potentially destabilizing move. Since winning its first NASA contract in 2006, Elon Musk’s company has grown into the primary launch provider for both NASA and the Department of Defense, handling astronaut transport to the International Space Station (ISS), military satellite launches, and NASA science missions. SpaceX’s Crew Dragon is currently the only reliable U.S. system for sending astronauts to the ISS, as Boeing’s troubled Starliner and other alternatives remain delayed. SpaceX is also building the lander for NASA’s planned 2026 moon mission and the vehicle to safely deorbit the ISS. Eliminating SpaceX from government operations would strand key defense payloads and science missions, jeopardize lunar exploration plans, and force NASA to consider costly and less capable backup options. Despite Musk’s temporary threat to withdraw Dragon capsules, any disruption would have far-reaching consequences. New York TimesReuters

ANALYSIS–What Musk and Trump Risk Losing in Their High-Stakes Breakup. The feud between Elon Musk and President Donald Trump has escalated into a high-stakes political and financial clash that could carry major consequences for both. After Musk denounced Trump’s flagship legislative bill as a “disgusting abomination,” Trump threatened to revoke billions in federal contracts with Musk’s companies, including SpaceX, which is deeply integrated into NASA, the Pentagon, and U.S. intelligence operations. Tesla lost $152.4 billion in market value amid the turmoil, and regulatory challenges now threaten its autonomous vehicle ambitions. Musk, who donated over $250 million to re-elect Trump, could shift his influence, funding Republican primaries or even forming a new political party. Meanwhile, Trump’s bill faces narrow margins in Congress, and Musk’s opposition could sway key GOP votes. Their split risks undermining both Musk’s federal partnerships and Republican momentum heading into the 2026 midterms, especially given Musk’s influence over his 220 million followers on X (formerly Twitter). Wall Street Journal

After Trump and Xi Speak, U.S. and China Agree to Revive Trade Talks. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a long-anticipated phone call Thursday to de-escalate rising trade tensions. While both leaders agreed to resume high-level trade talks and reaffirmed the May 12 Geneva deal—temporarily reducing mutual tariffs—no breakthrough was reached on core disputes, including China's curbs on rare earth mineral exports. Trump suggested progress on rare earths, but Chinese readouts made no such commitment, and the restrictions appear to remain in place. Xi urged the U.S. to withdraw “negative measures,” including export controls on chips and the revocation of student visas. Both sides exchanged invitations for state visits and emphasized the importance of improving diplomatic ties, but underlying tensions—over technology, trade imbalances, and Taiwan—persist. Analysts see the call as a pause in escalation rather than a resolution, with further talks to be led by U.S. officials Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, and Jamieson Greer. New York TimesFinancial Times Bloomberg Wall Street Journal South China Morning Post

Merz avoids a blowup in the Oval, but Trump goes his own way on Russia. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's visit to the Oval Office with President Donald Trump on Thursday was cordial and politically calculated but ultimately revealed deep divisions over Ukraine. Merz sought U.S. pressure on Russia to end the war, calling Trump “the key person” to deliver peace. Trump, however, offered no commitments, comparing the war to a playground brawl and suggesting both sides may need to “fight a little longer.” He voiced frustration with Ukraine’s drone strikes and hinted at sanctions on either side if peace efforts fail. Though Merz avoided confrontation, Trump rejected calls for immediate action on sanctions and dismissed pending legislation. On trade, the leaders agreed to further talks, but Trump showed no urgency. Merz downplayed tensions, praised U.S.-German ties, and secured Trump’s promise to maintain U.S. troops in Germany. The meeting established a warm tone but highlighted enduring policy rifts, especially on Russia’s war against Ukraine and Trump’s unpredictable stance toward allies and adversaries. PoliticoNew York TimesReuters

Trump taps senior Air Force commander for European Command. President Donald Trump has nominated Air Force Lt. Gen. Alexus Grynkewich to serve as commander of U.S. European Command and Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), affirming continued American leadership in NATO amid speculation the role might shift away from U.S. control. Grynkewich, a seasoned F-16 and F-22 pilot with extensive command experience in the Middle East and Europe, would succeed Gen. Christopher Cavoli. His nomination comes as NATO faces heightened pressure from Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine and debates over European defense spending. Grynkewich's appointment reinforces U.S. commitment to the alliance ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague. The role is critical for coordinating NATO military operations and nuclear deterrence. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking from NATO headquarters, expressed optimism that allies would soon reach consensus on increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP, a goal the U.S. itself has not yet met. The Senate must confirm Grynkewich’s appointment. Associated PressAir & Space Forces MagazinePolitico

Supreme Court blocks Mexico's lawsuit against U.S. gunmakers. The U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday unanimously rejected Mexico’s $10 billion lawsuit against American gunmakers, ruling that the companies are shielded by the 2005 Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act. The lawsuit claimed manufacturers like Smith & Wesson, Glock, and Beretta negligently enabled gun trafficking to Mexican cartels. Justice Elena Kagan wrote that Mexico failed to prove the companies directly aided criminal transactions, and that the design or marketing of popular firearms does not equate to liability. The ruling ends a landmark legal effort to hold U.S. gunmakers accountable for cartel violence. While the firearm industry hailed the decision as a defense of lawful gun commerce, Mexico vowed to continue pursuing legal and diplomatic options to combat arms trafficking. A separate lawsuit against gun shops in Arizona remains pending. Axios Associated PressPBSAl Jazeera

Back to basics: Army revamps flight school after deadly crashes. In response to a series of fatal aviation accidents over the past several years and growing safety concerns, the U.S. Army is overhauling its flight training program to emphasize basic flying skills and cost efficiency. Maj. Gen. Clair Gill, head of the Army Aviation Center of Excellence, is leading the initiative, which involves transitioning from the complex and expensive LUH-72A Lakota to simpler, more affordable single-engine helicopters, such as the Robinson R66. The Army is also piloting a contractor-owned, contractor-operated (COCO) training model to improve efficiency and reduce operational burdens. Industry partners, such as Robinson, Bell, and Lockheed Martin, are offering turnkey flight school solutions. The Army aims to lower costs—from $3,000 to as low as $500 per flight hour—while producing more competent aviators. A formal request for proposals is expected by late 2025, with the goal of launching the new training model by early fiscal year 2027. The reform comes amid efforts to reallocate resources and increase flight training readiness. Defense News

THE UKRAINE UPDATE

Russian missile and drone strikes kill 5, injure 73 in Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities reported Friday that Russian forces killed at least five civilians and injured 73 others in a massive overnight wave of attacks across the country, including Kyiv. Russia launched 452 drones, including Shahed-type suicide drones, and 45 missiles overnight. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 199 drones and 36 missiles. The heaviest casualties occurred in Kyiv, where four people were killed and 25 injured. Other hit regions included Volyn (15 injured), Ternopil (10), Chernihiv (4), Donetsk (6), Kharkiv (3), Kherson (10), Poltava (3), Sumy (2), and Zaporizhzhia (1 killed). The strikes damaged homes, public infrastructure, and administrative buildings. Ukrainian forces responded with aviation, electronic warfare, and anti-air systems. The strikes came only days after Ukraine’s "Spiderweb" June 1 operation that damaged 41 Russian bombers. President Vladimir Putin had warned of retaliation in a Wednesday phone call with President Donald Trump, who did not urge de-escalation, drawing criticism. Russia’s bombardment exploited Ukraine’s stretched air defenses, signaling that further mass strikes may follow. ReutersKyiv IndependentCNNNew York TimesKyiv Independent

Trump admired Ukraine's ‘badass’ attack, but worries about what's next. President Donald Trump privately praised Ukraine’s recent drone attack on Russia’s strategic bomber bases as “badass” and “pretty strong,” according to sources who spoke with Axios. While he marveled at the sophistication and reach of the operation, conducted remotely from thousands of miles away, Trump is also deeply concerned that the strike could derail his efforts to broker a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Axios

Ukraine’s Drone Attack Exposes Achilles’ Heel of Military Superpowers. Ukraine’s June 1 drone strike on Russian airbases has revealed a new era of asymmetric warfare, where low-cost, high-tech tactics can inflict strategic damage on military superpowers. In the attack, Ukraine used 117 commercial drones costing around $2,000 each to destroy billions of dollars’ worth of Russian aircraft, demonstrating that militaries with limited resources can now achieve outsized effects. The operation, dubbed “Operation Spider’s Web,” also showcased advances in Ukrainian tactics, including the use of civilian technologies like mobile networks for drone navigation. Western military leaders, including U.S. Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George and NATO officials, view this as a wake-up call to accelerate innovation cycles. The attack highlights how cheap, networked drones are transforming modern combat, enabling irregular forces—from Ukraine to insurgents in Iraq and Yemen—to threaten heavily defended targets and reshape global military doctrine. Psychological warfare, enabled by viral drone footage, compounds the tactical impact. Wall Street Journal

Russian weapons plant hit by drones in Tambov Oblast; media reports attacks across the country.Ukrainian drones reportedly struck multiple targets across Russia early Friday, including a major military facility in Michurinsk, Tambov Oblast. The JSC Progress Plant, which manufactures missile and aviation control systems, was allegedly hit, causing a fire. Simultaneously, an oil refinery linked to the Engels-2 airbase in Saratov was set ablaze, and drone attacks were reported in Moscow, Tula, Belgorod, and Kaluga oblasts. Russia claimed to have intercepted many drones but confirmed injuries in Tula and damage in Kaluga. These strikes followed Russia’s mass aerial attack on Ukraine that killed four in Kyiv. The tit-for-tat escalation comes amid stalled peace talks and reflects intensifying cross-border warfare following Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb, which damaged dozens of Russian bombers. Kyiv Independent

'Sometimes you’re better off letting them fight,’ Trump says of the Russia-Ukraine war.President Donald Trump, once confident he could swiftly end Russia’s war on war, suggested it may be better not to intervene. “Sometimes you see two young children fighting like crazy,” Trump said. “They hate each other, and they’re fighting in a park, and you try and pull them apart… Sometimes you’re better off letting them fight for a while and then pulling them apart.” Trump described using this analogy directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin during their 75-minute phone call on Wednesday. He did not indicate whether he urged Putin to restrain retaliation for Ukraine’s drone strike on Russian bombers. Trump also said, “It’s in my brain, the deadline,” when asked if he planned to take action to end the war but offered no commitments. His hands-off stance has frustrated allies ahead of the June 15-17 G7 summit, where he's expected to meet President Volodymyr Zelensky. CNNKyiv IndependentNew York TimesWall Street Journal

Ukraine criticizes Europe's payout from frozen Russian cash. Ukraine has strongly criticized Belgium’s Euroclear for distributing €3 billion in frozen Russian assets to Western investors, warning the move undermines Europe’s resolve against Moscow. The funds were used to compensate for losses from Russian asset seizures. Kyiv says this payout, approved under revised EU regulations, sets a dangerous precedent and dilutes pressure on Russia just as Ukraine pushes to use the full $300 billion in frozen Russian assets for war reparations. “If private investors are compensated before the victims of war, it won’t be justice,” said Iryna Mudra, Zelensky’s deputy chief of staff. Critics argue the decision prioritizes corporate losses over Ukrainian defense and recovery. The move comes as U.S. support wavers and European Union leaders prepare to debate further sanctions and asset freezes at an upcoming summit. Moscow, meanwhile, has reportedly tied any future peace conditions to the fate of these frozen funds. Reuters

IAEA team at Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia says it heard repeated rounds of gunfire. International Atomic Energy Agency monitors at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine reported Thursday hearing gunfire and at least five explosions, likely linked to drones targeting the plant’s training center. While no damage or casualties were reported, the incident marked the fourth drone-related event near the facility this year. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi warned that drones flying near nuclear sites pose serious safety risks and called for such attacks to cease immediately. The plant, seized by Russia in early 2022, is currently offline and cannot be restarted due to insufficient cooling water and an unstable power supply. Reuters

EU tariffs on Ukrainian goods return after 3 years of war, complicating Kyiv's path to European integration. The European Union reinstated tariffs on Ukrainian agricultural exports on Thursday, ending a three-year suspension introduced after Russia’s invasion. The reversal, driven by political pressure from Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia, complicates Ukraine’s efforts to deepen its European integration. Although a transitional agreement will ease the reversion through 2025, full tariffs resume in 2026 unless a new deal is reached. Ukrainian experts warn the change may cost Ukraine up to €3.3 billion in 2026. The move reflects growing domestic tensions within the European Union and risks empowering Russian efforts to undermine Ukraine’s economic alignment with Europe. Kyiv Independent

Ukraine reveals Russia’s larger war strategy. Speaking at the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington on Thursday, Colonel Pavlo Palisa, deputy head of President Volodymyr Zelensky's office, warned that Russia is preparing for a broader war, not peace, despite President Donald Trump's efforts to restart talks. Palisa shared Ukrainian intelligence indicating that Russia aims to seize all of Donetsk and Luhansk by fall, establish a buffer zone along the northern border, and eventually occupy Ukraine east of the Dnipro River. He also said Moscow wants to capture Odesa and Mykolaiv, which would sever Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea. Palisa's briefing to reporters and U.S. senators was part of a delegation led by Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak. Western analysts confirm Russia has shown no signs of retreating from its geopolitical goals, viewing the war as a power struggle with Washington rather than with Ukraine. Politico

Russia’s opposition talking with Ukraine behind the scenes, top dissident says. Russian opposition leaders are quietly engaging in behind-the-scenes dialogue with Ukrainian officials, according to Kremlin critic Vladimir Kara-Murza. Speaking in Brussels on Thursday, Kara-Murza said the talks are not public but could rise to a higher level, possibly involving President Volodymyr Zelensky. He was joined by Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Alexei Navalny, and opposition figure Ilya Yashin, who suggested the European Union could mediate the relationship. While both groups oppose President Vladimir Putin, Ukrainians remain skeptical of the Russian opposition due to lingering imperial attitudes and past comments, like Kara-Murza’s controversial remarks about shared identity, which sparked backlash. Despite tensions, the opposition insists it supports Ukraine’s independence and wants to strengthen ties. Politico EU

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment for Wednesday, June 5. Russian forces are incurring heavy daily losses—averaging 1,140 casualties, including nearly 975 killed—for minimal territorial gains, which Ukrainian officials say are unsustainable in the medium term. The Kremlin continues to falsely present itself as open to peace talks, using President Vladimir Putin’s conversation with Pope Leo XIV to blame Ukraine for the war while refusing to offer concessions or abandon maximalist demands. Ukraine’s international partners announced substantial new aid at the recent Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting, including military packages from the Netherlands, Canada, Belgium, and others, as well as increased investment in Ukraine’s defense industry. Defense Minister Rustem Umerov launched a joint weapons production initiative with Ramstein states to expand military output and prioritize Ukrainian needs. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reaffirmed unconditional support for Russia’s war during Sergei Shoigu’s visit. Russian authorities detained Ura.ru journalists amid speculation about internal military shake-ups.

Battlefield update: Ukrainian forces advanced near Hulyaipole and in western Zaporizhia. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Kupyansk, Lyman, and Toretsk. Institute for the Study of War

EUROPE

Goal to Spend More on Militaries Splits NATO Allies. At a NATO defense ministers meeting in Brussels on Thursday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said there was “almost near consensus” among allies to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP, up from the current 2%, in line with President Trump’s demands. While some eastern NATO members already exceed the 2% mark, others expressed concern about balancing rising defense costs with domestic priorities. Trump has threatened to reduce U.S. support if allies don’t contribute more. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte proposed flexibility: allowing 1.5% of the 5% to go toward defense-related infrastructure and aid to Ukraine. Final decisions are expected at the June summit in The Hague. New York Times

NATO allies agree to boost weapon inventories ahead of summit. NATO defense ministers agreed on Thursday to a 30% increase in military capability targets, including air defenses, land forces, and logistics, in response to growing concerns about Russian aggression. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte called the meeting “historic,” adding that the goal is to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP—3.5% for military expenditures and 1.5% for defense-related investments. The initiative sets the stage for the upcoming leaders’ summit in The Hague, where allies are expected to formally adopt the new target. While framed as necessary for security, the plan is also seen as a strategic move to appease U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened to reduce support unless Europe increases its military contributions. NATO aims to implement the goals over the next decade, with progress reviewed every four years. Some frontline states want faster timelines, while others remain concerned about cost and political backlash. Politico EU

NATO's dilemma: how Zelensky can attend the summit without provoking Trump. As NATO prepares for its June 24-25 summit in The Hague, officials are carefully managing how to include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky without provoking U.S. President Donald Trump. While Zelensky is expected to attend in some capacity, possibly at a pre-summit dinner, NATO has not confirmed a formal invitation, and a full NATO-Ukraine Council meeting is unlikely to take place. The alliance aims to minimize friction by keeping the summit brief and limiting discussion of Ukraine, fearing a repeat of the tense Oval Office clash between Trump and Zelensky in February. Despite European members’ strong support for Ukraine, they are treading lightly to preserve U.S. security commitments. Meanwhile, NATO leaders are expected to adopt Trump’s proposed 5% defense spending target, handing him a key diplomatic win. Reuters

Europe worries about its dependence on U.S. intelligence under Trump. European nations, particularly Germany, are growing increasingly uneasy about their reliance on U.S. intelligence amid President Trump’s return to power. A Central Intelligence Agency warning last year about a Russian plot to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, a key arms supplier to Ukraine, triggered massive German security efforts—yet nearly all actionable intelligence still came from the U.S. Officials fear that Trump’s shifting stance and purges of intelligence personnel could disrupt critical information flows. Despite reassurances from U.S. agencies, European services are exploring ways to reduce their dependency, although capabilities lag far behind. Germany’s new government, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is increasing intelligence spending and easing legal constraints, but officials admit there is no realistic substitute for the U.S.'s global reach. Warnings of Russian sabotage, plots, and attacks—shared primarily by the U.S.—have highlighted Europe’s vulnerability and sparked quiet but urgent debates about creating more autonomous intelligence infrastructure. Washington Post

U.K. Faces ‘Extraordinary’ Threat from Russian and Iranian Plots, Official Warns. A series of recent criminal cases in the U.K., including plots against Iranian journalists, a Russian spy ring, and an arson attack on a company aiding Ukraine, highlight the growing threat of foreign espionage, particularly from Russia and Iran. Britain's top state threats adviser, Jonathan Hall, warns that hostile states are exploiting Western divisions, using social media to recruit agents and organized crime networks to conduct attacks. Hall stresses these threats are harder for the public to grasp than terrorism with its public “death and destruction and mayhem,” but are no less serious. Britain’s MI5 and MI6 have echoed his concerns, citing increasingly aggressive Russian and Iranian operations. High-profile cases, like the 2018 poisoning of Sergei Skripal and the recent prosecution of Bulgarian spies, illustrate how foreign intelligence activities are shifting, especially as diplomatic expulsions have forced adversaries to use proxies. Hall urges new legal tools to combat espionage and has praised the U.S. for its flexible, results-driven approach to similar threats. New York Times

Europe Wants to Banish Russian Gas. The U.S. May Have Other Plans. European leaders are working to prevent a renewed dependence on Russian gas, but a controversial proposal from Stephen P. Lynch, a U.S. investor and donor to President Donald Trump, has raised concerns. Lynch, who seeks to purchase the damaged Nord Stream 2 pipeline, has pitched the idea to both German officials and the Trump administration, arguing that U.S. ownership would ensure oversight and control. While Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz remains firmly opposed, the Trump administration’s position is unclear, as some officials appear open to energy cooperation with Russia. European officials fear that such a move would undercut efforts to sever energy ties with Moscow and undermine Ukraine's interests. The European Union has pledged to end Russian gas imports by 2027, yet some German politicians advocate reopening Nord Stream to lower costs. New York Times

Why does MAGA world hate Europe? The Trump administration has escalated its ideological war against Europe, transforming long-standing grievances into an aggressive cultural and political offensive. A recent essay from a U.S. State Department adviser accused European governments of betraying democracy—language that reflects the administration's official stance and aligns with Vice President J.D. Vance’s speeches denouncing Europe’s liberal values. MAGA figures portray the European Union as decadent, overreaching, and dependent on U.S. protection while stifling free speech and prosecuting right-wing actors. Trump officials have defended Europe’s far-right politicians, criticized Germany for labeling the AfD as extremist, and intervened in Poland’s elections to back nationalist candidate Karol Nawrocki, who won. Analysts warn this campaign aims to undermine the liberal European consensus and replace it with an illiberal transatlantic alliance shaped by shared nationalist agendas. The rift threatens U.S.-EU cooperation on trade, defense, and Ukraine, as European leaders brace for an American administration openly hostile to core democratic norms. Financial Times

Trump-Musk meltdown gets Europe gloating.After U.S. President Donald Trump’s public fallout with Elon Musk, European politicians reacted with thinly veiled glee. “See, big man, politics is harder than you thought,” Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski mocked Musk on X, recalling a previous insult from the billionaire. Former EU Commissioner Thierry Breton joined in with cryptic emojis hinting at enjoyment. The once-close Trump-Musk relationship soured after Musk left the White House last week, swiftly turning into open hostility. The clash, now playing out on Musk’s own platform, X, has drawn international attention and sparked European Schadenfreude as two powerful figures publicly unravel their alliance. Politico EU

Russia sees bleak prospects for expiring nuclear arms pact given 'ruined' ties with US. Russia sees little hope for renewing the New START nuclear arms treaty with the U.S., set to expire in February 2026, citing the "ruined" state of bilateral relations, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told TASS. He also condemned President Donald Trump’s proposed $175 billion “Golden Dome” missile defense system as “deeply destabilizing,” complicating any future arms control efforts. New START, which limits deployed strategic warheads, has been suspended by Russia since 2023 due to U.S. support for Ukraine, though Russia says it remains within the treaty’s limits. Without renewal, experts warn of a potential new arms race. Reuters

THE MIDDLE EAST

Iran Orders Material from China for Hundreds of Ballistic Missiles. Iran has ordered thousands of tons of ammonium perchlorate—a key ingredient for solid-fuel ballistic missiles—from a Hong Kong-based company, with shipments expected to arrive from China in the coming months, according to U.S. and allied officials. The order, likely signed before President Donald Trump proposed renewed nuclear talks in March, could fuel up to 800 missiles and support Iran’s regional allies, including Iraqi Shia militias and Yemen’s Houthis. The U.S. Treasury has sanctioned several Iranian and Chinese entities involved in such transactions. This effort to rebuild Iran’s missile arsenal follows severe damage inflicted by Israel on Iranian missile production infrastructure last October. Some earlier shipments of sodium perchlorate were reportedly lost in a deadly explosion at Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port. As nuclear negotiations remain stalled, Iran is expanding its military capacity while resisting U.S. demands to limit its missile program, raising concerns about regional stability and arms proliferation. Wall Street Journal

Israel assured U.S. it won't strike Iran unless talks fail.Israel has reportedly assured the Trump administration that it will not launch a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities unless President Trump concludes that negotiations with Tehran have failed, according to two Israeli sources. This reassurance came during a recent visit to Washington by senior Israeli officials, who stressed that any military action would wait until diplomatic efforts are clearly exhausted. Despite the Israel Defense Forces continuing preparations for potential conflict, Israel clarified that recent military activity was misinterpreted and not linked to Iran. The U.S. is still awaiting the Islamic Republic’s response to a nuclear deal proposal, with tensions rising as Trump accuses the country of delaying. A two-month deadline set by the White House is nearing its end, but no new talks are currently planned. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu remains doubtful about the success of negotiations but believes Iran may try to keep them alive, possibly prolonging the process for months before Trump decides they’ve failed. Axios

UN nuclear agency members draft resolution accusing Iran of failing to meet obligations. Western nations, led by the U.S., France, the U.K., and Germany, plan to present a resolution at the June 9–13 IAEA Board of Governors meeting declaring Iran in non-compliance with its nuclear safeguard’s obligations for the first time in 20 years. The move follows Iran's continued failure to explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites, raising concerns that its nuclear program may not be entirely peaceful. Although Tehran insists its activities are for civilian use, the resolution accuses it of withholding cooperation since 2019. The resolution does not immediately refer Iran to the U.N. Security Council, giving the country time to comply. However, if no progress is made, a follow-up resolution could escalate the matter later this summer. While the West remains open to diplomacy, tensions remain high as President Trump’s administration pushes for a new deal with Iran. Associated Press

US-backed group distributing Gaza aid again closes sites following repeated, fatal shootings. In an online post, the U.S. and Israeli-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation announced that all aid distribution sites in the Gaza Strip were temporarily closed on Friday. The group urged residents to stay away from these areas “for their safety,” and did not disclose a reopening date. The foundation also cited safety concerns following recent deadly shootings near its operations. Although two sites in Rafah had briefly reopened and distributed nearly 25,000 food boxes—including over 18,000 at Tel Sultan’s “Swedish village” and 6,700 in the Saudi neighborhood—GHF said they are now shut. The closure comes as the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha begins. Reuters Jerusalem PostTimes of Israel

Israeli military strikes Beirut's southern suburbs. Israeli airstrikes pounded Beirut’s southern suburbs late Thursday, hitting Dahiyeh with at least 10 bombs and triggering mass evacuations just ahead of the Muslim holiday Eid al-Adha. The Israeli military claimed it targeted underground drone production sites allegedly operated by Hezbollah with Iranian support. Lebanese officials condemned the strikes as a clear violation of the U.S.-brokered ceasefire reached in November, which requires Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon and disarm. Lebanon’s army found no military equipment at one targeted site before the strikes blocked their return. The bombing caused panic, with thousands of people fleeing on foot or taking refuge with relatives. Strikes also hit Ain Qana in southern Lebanon. The truce has been fragile, with both Israel and Hezbollah accusing each other of non-compliance. ReutersCNNAssociated PressBBCThe Guardian

Hamas chief says group did not reject US ceasefire proposal for Gaza, sought changes. Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya stated in a pre-recorded speech that the group has not rejected the latest U.S.-backed ceasefire proposal but is seeking revisions to ensure a complete end to the war in Gaza. The proposal, delivered by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, includes a 60-day truce, the release of 28 hostages in exchange for over 1,200 Palestinian prisoners, and increased humanitarian aid. While Hamas is open to further talks and remains in contact with mediators, it insists on an Israeli troop withdrawal and a permanent ceasefire—conditions Israel has rejected. Prime Minister Netanyahu said Israel accepted the plan’s framework but accused Hamas of blocking progress. Hamas maintains it will only release the remaining hostages if the war ends, while Israel demands Hamas be disarmed and eliminated before any final peace. Reuters

Netanyahu says Israel has ‘activated’ some Palestinian clans opposed to Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly acknowledged that Israel is working with certain Palestinian clans in Gaza opposed to Hamas, saying the move aims to reduce Israeli military casualties. His statement marks the first official confirmation of Israeli support for armed Palestinian groups in Gaza. An official said one of these groups is the self-declared ‘nationalist force’ Abu Shabab in Rafah, which claims to be protecting Israeli-backed aid centers run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. The clan has also been accused of attacking and looting aid convoys. While Abu Shabab denies receiving Israeli support or being a proxy, it admitted to taking minimal supplies for its fighters. Gaza aid workers and U.N. officials have blamed such groups—allegedly operating with Israeli oversight—for widespread aid theft. Netanyahu’s statement came amid criticism over arming unofficial groups, as Gaza continues to suffer immense devastation and humanitarian collapse in the ongoing war with Hamas. Associated Press

Hamas took 251 hostages from Israel into Gaza. Where are they? As of now, 23 hostages remain in Gaza from the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack, during which 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage. On May 21, Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed three of the remaining hostages are dead, though identities were not disclosed. In total, 146 hostages have been freed or rescued, and 82 have been confirmed killed. Releases have occurred through various deals and operations: over 100 were freed in late 2023, including 78 in a major exchange and 27 foreign nationals separately. Eight were rescued by Israeli forces, and Hamas released four women on humanitarian grounds. The most recent release was that of Edan Alexander, an Israeli American soldier. Ceasefire agreements in early 2024 led to further releases, but the collapse of a truce in March stalled additional progress. Some hostages are believed to be held by groups other than Hamas, such as Islamic Jihad. Washington Post

White House slaps International Criminal Court judges with sanctions over investigation into Israel. In a surprising development, the Trump administration has imposed sanctions on four International Criminal Court (ICC) judges from Benin, Peru, Slovenia, and Uganda over the court’s investigation into alleged Israeli war crimes in Gaza and the West Bank, and a past probe into the actions of American troops in Afghanistan. The U.S. will freeze their assets within its jurisdiction, continuing its pressure campaign against the ICC, which it accuses of overreach and bias. Secretary of State Marco Rubio slammed the “politicized” ICC for targeting Israel and the U.S., calling its actions “illegitimate.” The ICC condemned the sanctions as a threat to judicial independence, and the EU swiftly threw its support behind the court, with member state Slovenia asserting that it would press Brussels to ensure U.S. sanctions could not be enforced in Europe. The judges targeted were involved in authorizing investigations and issuing warrants, including one for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Neither the U.S. nor Israel recognizes the ICC’s authority. Critics say Washington is undermining international justice to shield itself and Israel from accountability. Associated PressAxiosReuters

ASIA & OCEANIA

Despite US port fee, big shipping companies are still ordering vessels made in China. Despite new U.S. port fees targeting China-linked ships, major global shipping firms, such as Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), continue to order vessels from Chinese shipyards, citing their unmatched capabilities in supporting the energy transition. Speaking at the Nor-Shipping Forum in Oslo on June 6, 2025, MSC executive Marie-Caroline Laurent said that China remains central to shipbuilding, particularly for energy-efficient vessels needed to meet the International Maritime Organization’s net-zero emissions targets. Although geopolitical tensions and U.S. trade policies have slowed global vessel orders, Chinese yards still secured 54% of new orders in early 2025. Japanese firm Mitsui O.S.K. Lines also emphasized that China remains a critical partner due to the limited number of shipyards capable of building high-quality LNG carriers. While the U.S. seeks to revive its domestic shipbuilding sector, industry leaders say it won’t replace China’s role in the short term. South China Morning Post

Pyongyang says it has raised a capsized destroyer upright as it continues repair. North Korea has righted and docked a capsized destroyer in Chongjin following a failed launch, calling the ship a vital military asset. Satellite images confirm the vessel is upright and floating, though the extent of damage remains unclear. Repairs will continue at a dry dock and are expected to last up to 10 days. Kim Jong Un, who furiously labeled the botched launch a “criminal act,” has ordered restoration to be completed before a major party congress in June. At least four officials have been detained over the incident. The destroyer, North Korea’s second of its kind, is part of Kim’s broader effort to modernize the navy and expand nuclear capabilities. The ship is designed to handle various weapons, including ballistic and cruise missiles. Analysts suspect Russia aided in the ship’s construction, reflecting growing ties between Pyongyang and Moscow amid the Ukraine war. Associated PressNew York Times

Joshua Wong, Hong Kong activist, facing fresh charge of foreign collusion.Hong Kong activist Joshua Wong, 28, has been hit with a new national security charge, accused of conspiring with exiled former lawmaker Nathan Law to collude with foreign forces between July and November 2020. Authorities allege they sought to instigate sanctions and other hostile actions against Hong Kong and mainland China, and to disrupt policy-making processes. Wong, already serving a 56-month sentence for subversion tied to a 2020 unofficial primary election, was arrested again Friday at a maximum-security prison. He appeared in West Kowloon Court but did not enter a plea or apply for bail. The court set the next hearing for August 8, granting police more time to investigate. Wong was also arrested on suspicion of money laundering, though no charge was filed for that. The late announcement of the hearing left little time for defense lawyers to review the case. The charge falls under the Beijing-imposed national security law, which carries penalties of up to life imprisonment. South China Morning PostHong Kong Free PressReuters

AFRICA

Chad to suspend visas to US citizens in retaliation for Trump’s travel ban. Chad's President Mahamat Idriss Deby has announced a suspension of visa issuance to U.S. citizens in response to President Donald Trump's renewed travel ban, which targets 12 countries, including Chad, Haiti, Iran, Afghanistan, and Yemen. Trump cited inadequate screening and refusal to repatriate overstaying nationals as reasons for the ban. In a statement invoking national dignity, Deby stressed reciprocity. Other affected nations, mostly in Africa, have responded with criticism or calls for dialogue. The Republic of Congo called the ban a mistake, while Sierra Leone pledged cooperation with U.S. authorities to address concerns. The policy takes effect Monday. Associated Press Reuters

CYBER, TECH & MARKETS

Researchers discover potential iPhone spyware campaign inside U.S.Researchers at mobile security platform iVerify have reported what may be the first signs of an active spyware campaign targeting iPhones in the U.S. and European Union. The suspected attack exploited Apple's "Nickname" feature, possibly affecting phones linked to government officials, political campaigns, media, and AI companies. Three devices showed suspicious crashes, and one user received an Apple threat alert. Sources told NBC News that former members of Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign may have also been impacted. Apple has since fixed the flaw in iOS 18.3 but strongly denies any evidence of it being used in attacks, calling it a conventional software bug. While iVerify has not identified the attackers, the potential targets had past links to Chinese state-backed surveillance. The company has shared its findings publicly to prompt further investigation and advises high-risk users to enable Lockdown Mode for better protection. AxiosForbes NBC News

China eyes 10 new national data zones in digital economy push, AI race with US. China announced plans to establish 10 national data pilot zones across regions, including Beijing, Zhejiang, and Anhui, aiming to expand its digital economy and compete with the U.S. in artificial intelligence. The initiative, led by the National Data Administration (NDA), encourages local governments to develop data-driven markets and integrate digital capabilities into the real economy. China's data industry, comprising over 190,000 companies, is currently valued at over 2 trillion yuan (US$278 billion) and is projected to reach 7.5 trillion yuan by 2030. A three-year action plan (2024–2026) aims to double data transactions and create over 300 use cases. Officials say data has already reduced corporate procurement cycles and boosted crop yields, underscoring its strategic role in industrial efficiency and innovation. South China Morning Post

OpenAI blocks ChatGPT accounts linked to North Korean IT worker fraud. OpenAI announced this week that it has banned ChatGPT accounts linked to North Korean IT worker schemes aimed at infiltrating U.S. tech companies. These workers have long posed as Americans to secure remote jobs, generating revenue for North Korea’s missile program. OpenAI now reports that ChatGPT was used to automate nearly every part of the fraud—from drafting resumes and cover letters to managing VPNs and creating tools to mimic online activity. This marks a shift from identity creation to full workflow automation, signaling increased operational sophistication. While OpenAI can't confirm the operations’ success, the tactics match known North Korean cyber strategies. Axios

How Chinese plane radar tracks moving targets without breaking radio silence.A groundbreaking radar technology developed by Chinese scientist Li Zhongyu and his team has enabled unprecedented detection of moving targets using passive airborne radar. Detailed in Journal of Radars on May 12, the system uses two Cessna aircraft flying in formation—one emitting radar signals, the other silently collecting echoes. Traditional radar struggles with clutter from land, sea, or buildings, especially in bistatic setups where platforms move independently. Li's method combines Keystone transform, motion correction, spectrum compression, and a novel space-time decoupling technique to isolate moving targets with remarkable clarity. In field tests, the silent aircraft detected three ground vehicles through dense terrain with over 20 decibels greater clarity than existing systems. Crucially, the radar operates without emitting detectable signals, making it nearly impossible to jam or detect. Unlike AI-heavy methods, this system is computationally efficient and potentially adaptable to various aircraft, enhancing low-probability-of-intercept capabilities. South China Morning Post

Kurdish, Iraqi officials targeted by Iran-linked hackers in long-running cyber espionage campaign. A suspected Iranian-linked hacking group, BladedFeline, has been conducting a cyber espionage campaign targeting Kurdish and Iraqi government officials since at least 2017, according to cybersecurity firm ESET. Believed to be a subgroup of the well-known Iranian actor OilRig, BladedFeline has evolved its tools over time, using malware like Shahmaran, Whisper, and PrimeCache to spy on targets and maintain long-term access. The group likely exploited server vulnerabilities to breach systems and has also targeted a telecom provider in Uzbekistan. ESET warns that the campaign reflects Iran’s interest in influencing geopolitically strategic regions like Kurdistan and Iraq, and countering Western powers. The RecordThe Hacker News

Ukrainian police arrest hacker who used hosting firm's servers to mine cryptocurrency.Ukrainian police, with help from Europol, have arrested a 35-year-old man from Poltava accused of hacking over 5,000 accounts at a global hosting company to run an illegal cryptocurrency mining operation. Active since at least 2018, the suspect allegedly exploited system vulnerabilities using publicly available information. He is accused of deploying virtual machines on the company’s servers, causing an estimated $4.5 million in losses. Authorities seized digital devices and found evidence of hacker forum activity and use of remote access and data collection tools. The suspect frequently moved to evade capture. The investigation continues. The Record

Private lunar lander from Japan crashes into moon in failed mission. Japan’s ispace has confirmed the failure of its second lunar landing attempt after losing contact with its lander, Resilience, just before touchdown on Friday. The craft, carrying a mini rover and an art installation, likely crashed due to a malfunction in its altitude-sensing laser, causing it to descend too quickly. Despite a smooth descent until the final moments, no signals were received, marking the company’s second crash following an attempt two years ago. ispace emphasized its commitment to future missions, including a larger lander planned for 2027. The unsuccessful landing highlights the growing but still uncertain role of private companies in lunar exploration. Associated PressReuters

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