DROPPING A DIME: We live in a time when great intelligence collection and analysis is no longer the sole province of governments. Last week, we mentioned the fine work of Julia Davis who watches Russian television and shares timely translated snippets, giving insight into what passes for informed commentary on Russian state TV. This week, we’d like to again highlight the continued extraordinary work of the folks at Bellingcat. The global collective outfit of “independent researchers, investigators and citizen journalists” posted some fascinating analysis this week about the Russian officials responsible for planning the cruise missile attacks that have been targeting Ukrainian residential buildings, kindergartens and playgrounds. Working with the German publication Der Spiegel and The Insider, Bellingcat investigators identified by name, members a group of military engineers who they say appear to be programming the missiles to hit these civilian targets. Now, just how Bellingcat & company figured all this out is hard to explain simply – but their explanation is well worth the read. The level of detail they collect is amazing. For example, one of the Russian targeting group’s leaders, identified as Lt. Col. Igor Bagnyuk, “is an avid coin collector who spends a large portion of his time – including during working hours – on the phone with coin trading sites.” We guess you could say Bellingcat really dropped a dime on Bagnyuk.
LOOK! UP IN THE AIR! The skies over Ukraine are crowded with drones these days. Some seem to be controlled by Ukrainians and others by Russians. Media reports say Moscow is deploying Iranian-made drones which are trying to knock out Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure in hopes of demoralizing the populace as winter sets in. As of last week, Ukrainian military officials claim to have shot down “at least 237” Iranian Shahed-136 drones. The New York Times reported this week, that “A Ukrainian official, speaking off the record, has said Israel has provided intelligence useful for targeting the Iranian drones.” Ukrainians, meanwhile, are flying U.S. and Turkish made drones and have made some innovative modifications. In some instances, we hear, they are using them to drop grenades on Russian personnel.
FALL GUYS: The Dead Drop has mentioned several times the propensity of Russian oligarchs to unexpectedly turn up dead. So many of them have suffered mysterious falls, overdoses, and the occasional gunshot wound – that a Wikipedia page has been created to keep track of them all. Of course, like all Wiki pages, you should take it with a grain of salt. It could always just be coincidence that so many high-powered Russians are falling victim to things like toad venom overdoses and the like. Slate recently reported on a study suggesting that a web of pro-Russian Wikipedia editors are trying to skew Wiki pages in favor of Moscow’s preferred spin. Pro-tip: if you see Wikipedia pages that suggest that the mean Ukrainians are threatening Russia – don’t fall for it. Russian propagandists seem to have quit calling the Ukrainians “Nazis” and now dub them “satanists.”
COMING CONFLICT: Historian Andrew Roberts and retired 4-star General and former CIA Director (and Cipher Brief expert) David Petraeus have landed a deal to write a book called “Conflict” which will “explain how warfare has changed since the Second World War and how statesmen and generals alike have adapted to new weapons systems, theories and strategies.” According to reports, they will also reflect on the war in Ukraine and lessons that Vladimir Putin should have learned in the past, but apparently did not. The book is expected to be out in the fall of 2023, from Harper.
NEVER MIND: Last week’s Dead Drop mentioned the very odd story about ABC News national security producer James Gordon Meek, whose Northern Virginia apartment was allegedly raided by the FBI in April. We haven’t learned much more about it other than a report in The Daily Beast that suggested whatever the reason for the raid – it was NOT connected to Meek’s work. That makes sense – because if it were connected to his reporting – you would expect his (former) employers to be raising holy hell – and so far, they’ve been pretty much silent. Meek reportedly resigned from ABC on the same day as the raid – citing “personal reasons.”
POCKET LITTER: Dead Droplets and bits and pieces of interesting /weird stuff we discovered:
ODD IN THE LONG RUN: We’ve spotted a couple of stories recently that struck us as, well, odd, verging on unlikely. The first comes from Senator Patrick Leahy’s recently published memoir in which he says that during the run up to the Iraq war in 2002, while he was out on a morning walk “two fit joggers” ran up behind him and asked what he thought of the intelligence briefings he was getting and then told him to go look at “File Eight” which he said he had not seen but later went to look. Turns out he found that it contradicted much of what he had heard from the Bush administration. Days later, what appeared to be the same two joggers approached him again and directed him to “File Twelve.” An excerpt to that part of the book recently ran in Politico which also includes a spooky encounter with an unnamed member of the “presidential inner circle” who is described as driving up in a black car with “multiple antennas and darkened windows” and a security detail and saying something about knowing Leahy had seen the mysterious files. Chance (and not-so-chance) encounters are not uncommon in DC. But “File 8” and “File 12”? Sounds like “Plan 9 from Outer Space” to us.
Pro-tip: Might be time to find a new jogging route.
WOULD I LIE? If you think the mystery jogger story is a stretch – try this one on for size. Conspiracy theorist Alex Jones said in a recent interview that he was visited by a high-level CIA guy during the Obama presidency and told, “Listen, Obama likes you, he cares about you. Just stop attacking him. Come on board. Come to us, you know, to New York.” Yeah. We are going to put that one down as “hard to believe.” RawStory notes that the former president mocked Jones for saying that he and Hillary Clinton were demons and “smell like sulfur.” We’re filing this one in the ‘not to be trusted’ category.
WE WILL BE SULFURIOUS IF YOU HAVE GOOD NEWS TIPS AND FAIL TO SHARE THEM WITH US: Help us keep up with the Jones by sending your tips to TheDeadDrop@theCipherBrief.com.
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