Dead Drop: May 10

CIPHER BRIEF EXPERTS ARRIVE IN KYIV: This week’s DD is a day late. And it’s not because our spies blew their deadline.  It’s because a lot of Cipher Brief experts and members of the senior team were on a train out of Kyiv at deadline time and well, let’s just say internet connection can be ‘iffy’ in a country that is both trying to live and at the same time, fight for its future. Five Cipher Brief Experts sat on a panel at this year’s Kyiv Security Forum, assessing intelligence efforts by both Moscow and Kyiv since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February, 2022. If you’re wondering what things are like in the Ukrainian capital some three years after Russian paratroopers dropped in and started killing people – note that the TCB team was met on arrival by air raid sirens and a barrage of anti-aircraft fire that sounded like a combination of big booms overhead and machine gun fire right outside the door.  A stark reminder of how Ukrainian civilians still have to live every single day, not to mention what the front lines are like. Watch for more reporting from the trip on The Cipher Brief’s LinkedIn page where Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly also posts behind-the-scenes pics from the trip. 

DON’T RAIN (ORDNANCE) ON MY PARADE: A lot of former senior officers from CIA who spent their careers focused on better understanding Russian intentions toward the U.S., told The Cipher Brief that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call for a 3-day ceasefire last week was nothing more than a tactic to ensure that Kyiv didn’t target Russia’s Victory Day parade in Moscow. The New York Times quoted Ukrainian military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov suggesting that those attending the parade should “bring earplugs.” Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and Cipher Brief expert retired Admiral Jim Stavridis said on X he didn’t interpret the earplug recommendation as criticism of Russia’s marching bands. (For extra credit reading this week, see how Ukraine’s military intelligence chief thought the war would end, when he met with The Cipher Brief back in February, 2023.)