"LORDY, I HOPE THERE ARE TAPES": That phrase, made in an entirely different context, was the first thought that came to mind when we heard reports that the U.S. had blamed two Russian SU-27 fighter jets of causing the loss of a $32 million MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea. The U.S. European Command said the Russians "dumped fuel on and flew in front of the MQ-9 in a reckless and "environmentally unsound and unprofessional manner". Boy, accusing the Russians of behaving in an "environmentally unsound manner" must really sting. Of course, the Kremlin's claims were entirely different, blaming the drone for creating a provocation and denying that their planes physically came in contact with the Reaper. The U.S. European Command eventually released a 43-second, edited video clip of the incident showing an SU-27 apparently dumping fuel on the Reaper and seemingly, bending the drone's propeller. we are looking forward to the Russians releasing their own video which will probably make the SU-27s look as innocent as QAnon Shaman "peacefully touring the Capitol" on January 6.
OLIGARCH BINGO: It’s hard to keep up with the list of Russian oligarchs who are coming down with mysterious diseases, falling from high windows or otherwise turning up dead. The Suntabloid is struggling to keep track and published a list of 39 oligarchs and other officials who may have made an untimely exit from the planet with an assist from Team Putin. Among the latest was billionaire Sergey Grishin, 56, who last made headlines by selling his California mansion to Harry and Meghan of British royalty fame. The reported cause of death for Grishin was “sepsis” but observers note that he had recently criticized Putin, which can cause an infection all its own.
MOMS MAKING THEIR POINT: Apparently, not all Russian moms and wives are keen on earning the dumplings and multicookers we previously told you were being awarded to the next of kin of Russian servicemen who are KIA. CNN recently reported about a video posted by a group of Russian wives and mothers who called on President Putin to stop sending their husbands and sons “to the slaughter.” We admire their courage – but perhaps not their tactics, since the video showed the group of women holding a sign in Russian citing the “580 Separate Howitzer Artillery Division” and giving the date of March 11, 2023. They claimed that their loved ones were “being sent like lambs to the slaughter to storm fortified areas – five at a time, against 100 heavily-armed enemy men.” Their public protest may expose the 580 Separate Howitzer Artillery Division to even worse incoming fire from the Kremlin.
DO THEY CELEBRATE APRIL FOOL’S DAY IN RUSSIA? We ask because we spotted a news item in the Kyiv Independent – stemming from a reporter in the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Russian service – that claims Russia’s Defense Ministry is launching a new recruitment campaign on April 1 “aiming to conclude contracts with 400,000 professional soldiers.” Apparently, this is the next wave of conscription to backfill for the many thousands of not-so-professional soldiers Russia has lost in its ill-advised attack on Ukraine.
SURVEY SAYS? The folks at the Gallup poll organization reached out to Americans to ask how they feel about Russia. The results show that only 9% of respondents have a favorable view of Russia, down from 15% last year. In breaking the 10% barrier, Moscow has joined Iran, Iraq and North Korea and the only countries that hardly anyone in the US admires. On the flip side, 68% of Americans have a favorable opinion about Ukraine. We suspect of all the things Vladimir Putin is losing sleep over – Russia’s favorability rating in the US is at the bottom of his list. The one question in our mind is simply this: what have those 9 percent of Americans with positive views of Russia been drinking?
APPARENTLY, YOU DO KNOW JACK: There is a piece in a recent edition of Slatetackling a thorny question that we didn’t even know existed: Why are so many action heroes in movies and on TV named Jack, James, John, Jake or Jason? Writer Demetria Glace approached the question scientifically – finding that Wikipedia listed 2206 action movies released since 1992 – when “Dr. No” (featuring James Bond) was released. Glace narrowed the list down to 790 films built around a single man of action. Of these, 33% had heroes whose first name started with a J. The letter M came in a distant second with just 7 percent of the lead character first names. There seems to be a hierarchy within the J’s with 74 of the 790 movies having a starring character called “John” – 50 called “James,” and 37 “Jack.” While J names are fairly common in the real world – we’d say not so much that it would explain the abundance of James, Jack and Johns outdistancing every other Tom, Dick or Harry. Glace has produced a long article full of graphs and charts and a variety of plausible explanations for the plethora of J names – but no definitive answer. One explanation is that the main J names have an everyman feel to them, so the “Joe Six Packs” out there feel good when they see an action hero they can relate to.
SPEAKING OF JACKS: Former Navy SEAL and best-selling author Jack Carr has announced that he will be adding non-fiction to his writing repertoire. Carr is teaming up with writer James M. Scott to produce a series of books each one on a seminal terrorist event. The first is expected in October 2024 and will be titled, Targeted: The 1983 Beirut Barracks Bombing.
NOTHING NOWHERE ALL AT ONCE: This year’s Oscars were full of films we hadn’t seen and actors we hadn’t heard of, but somehow wanted to slap. It seems to be award season and everyone wants to get in on the act. More in our lane are the awards the folks at MuckRock, in conjunction with the Electronic Frontier Foundation, give out annually to mock the lack of transparency from government agencies. Among the candidates this year, are the FBI, who are resisting releasing details from their files collected during a 1967 concert by The Monkees, and the US Southern Command which reportedly redacted portions of artwork created by GITMO detainees. While a little outside our normal wheelhouse – we were amazed by a report that a group of parents filing an FOIA request with a school district north of Detroit was told that if the school complied – they would be liable for an $18 million search fee - half of which was due in advance. That’s one way to fund your schools.
POCKET LITTER: Dead Droplets and bits and pieces of interesting /weird stuff we discovered:
TOO MUCH TIME ON THEIR HANDS: OK, it is a little old – well, maybe a lot old – but we just came across (thanks to Military.com) a YouTube video from four years ago titled “Top 50 Military Fails.” It goes on for over 15 minutes showing military personnel from armed services around the world tripping, falling down, accidentally crashing their armored vehicles into each other generally looking like the Russian army on their worst day.
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HERE’S OTHER STUFF YOU MAY HAVE MISSED IN THE CIPHER BRIEF THIS WEEK:
ALEX CARY AND ‘A SPY AMONG FRIENDS’— Hollywood writer and Executive Producer Alex Cary has always been drawn to storytelling. It’s a passion that moved him from his life as a soldier in the UK to Hollywood, where he began writing and producing on shows like ‘Lie to Me’, ‘Homeland’ and ‘Taken’. A few years ago, someone sent him a book by author Ben McIntyre and it set Cary off on a new adventure, this time, creating the television show he’s always wanted to make. His new series tells the story of British Intelligence Officer Kim Philby, who lived a double life by spying for the Soviet Union during World War II and in the early years of the Cold War. In 1963, Philby’s past caught up with him and that’s where Cary’s new series, ‘A Spy Among Friends’, begins. Cary called on a few friends of his own to make it happen, including actor Damian Lewis, whom he’d met on the set of Homeland years earlier. Cover Stories co-host Suzanne Kelly caught up with Cary in Los Angeles to talk about his journey from reading the book to writing and producing the new television series.
Listen to The Cover Stories Podcast here or wherever you subscribe and listen to podcasts.
AND ON A MORE SERIOUS NOTE:
UKRAINE’S MILITARY INTELLIGENCE CHIEF PREDICTS HOW WAR WILL END: As Ukraine announced a planned counteroffensive in the Spring, the head of the country’s Main Intelligence Directorate, Major General Kyrylo Budanov, predicted that the coming battles will be ‘decisive’. He's also predicting how this war will end.
It pays to be a Subscriber+Member. As a full-access member, you get access to Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Chief Predicts How War Will End exclusively in The Cipher Brief.
There’s a lot more where this came from: Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
