AUSTIN’S POWERS: A lot of ink has been spilled – and electrons expended, analyzing the circumstances surrounding Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization at the start of the year – and the lack of timely notification to the President, the National Security Advisor, members of Congress – or even his Deputy, Kathleen Hicks – who assumed Austin’s duties for a couple of days without knowing why. Of course, we wish Secretary Austin a speedy and full recovery from what we now know was treatment for prostate cancer. Without re-plowing too many details, we do offer a couple of observations we picked up from contacts who have served in prominent positions in DoD and the White House. First, they were stunned that the White House Situation Room didn’t have 24/7 visibility into the whereabouts of a cabinet officer who was in the chain of command – between the president and the combatant commanders. One suggested to us that going forward, the administration issue air tags, one of those “I’ve fallen, and I can’t get up” necklaces, or make senior officials download the Life360 app on senior officials’ phones. Another former senior opined that Austin still has his job thanks to two people. One – Joe Biden. The president is known to be fond of Austin and loyal to his subordinates. The other – Senator Tommy Tuberville – because if Biden did accept or request Austin’s resignation – it is likely that the Coach would block any replacement anyway.
WHO’S IN LINE? Among the very first items that appeared in The Dead Drop when we debuted 8.5 years ago (we know, time flies, right?) – was one speculating who would be tapped to fill senior national security positions after the presidential election that was (then) on the horizon. Well, here we go again. With balloting still about 10 months off – various media outlets are already publishing stories about possible nominees. Even before Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin went into the witness protection program last week – media were already speculating about who might succeed him if Biden wins a second term. A piece in Politico suggests that after making history by naming Austin, the first African-American SECDEF, Biden might go for a two-fer and nominate the first woman for the job. Candidates include the current deputy, Kathleen Hicks, or Christine Wormuth – now the Secretary of the Army, or the frequently mentioned Michelle Flournoy, who was Under SECDEF for policy in the Obama administration. Conventional wisdom in 2020, was certain that Flournoy was a shoe in for the job until Biden surprised everyone by picking Austin. If Republicans regain the White House – who might be the Pentagon boss? That all depends, of course, on who POTUS is – but should that turn out to be Donald Trump again – the name of Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas is often dropped. We’ll keep an eye on this over the next ten months – and may periodically bring you speculation about other top national security gigs – like Secretary of State, DNI, CIA and National Security Advisor. We caution though – it’s always wise to keep in mind that some of the names you may hear bandied about are sometimes just trial balloons floated by friend or staff of the person mentioned.
WHO’S ON THE HILL?Another ‘go-to’ topic for us over the years, has been tracking trends for military and intelligence veterans who end up as members of Congress. We’re still too far out from the primaries and general election to offer well-informed speculation – but that never stopped us before. An article by Leo Shane III in Military Times noted that Congress hasn’t had at least 100 members with military service since 2017 but there are signs that circumstances might be ripe for breaking that mark in 2024. The number of vets serving on the Hill had been going down steadily from the mid-1970s. In 1973, 75% of all seats in the House and Senate were held by vets. We’ll keep an eye on that one, too.
WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE: Not all veterans are worth following, however. For example, former UN weapons inspector (and convicted felon) Scott Ritter – who we have told you about before – showed up recently in Chechnya and according to BBC Russian media watcher Francis Scarr, made an “inspirational” speech in broken Russian to thousands of Chechen fighters. The video Scarr posted shows Ritter telling a frightening group of rag-tag soldiers that too many Americans think Chechens are frightening. Ritter called them the heroes of Mariupol and said he was confident they will win.
WHO’S EDITING THIS STUFF? Not only could Congress use more people who understand the military – so too, could the media. Case in point: Wednesday’s New York Times published a story headlined: “U.S. Naval Officer Who Helped China Is Sentenced to 2 Years In Prison.” The lead of the story is: “A United States naval officer who sent an intelligence officer working for the Chinese government photos of American military installations…” Buried in the story is detail that the 26-year-old who was convicted “held the rank of petty officer” when he was arrested. (We assume the NYT may fix their headline and “lede” (as journalists call it) before you read this but perhaps not.) If you don’t know the difference between an “officer” and “petty officer” – perhaps you have a future at The New York Times.
WHO’S HONEY? The Daily Mail had a lengthy update recently on reports about “high-end” brothels in the Boston and Washington, D.C. areas that were busted back in November. Unnamed investigators said that the six sites might have been used to ensnare politicians and government officials - including “members of Congress, military officers, national security contractors” – none of which have been charged yet. But the story includes speculation (but no evidence) that Russia, China, or even allies like South Korea and Israel might have been involved in using the sites as “honey traps.” Some former intelligence officials we talked with are skeptical about that, however. While fancy brothels set up around power centers might be the work of foreign governments as wholesale entrapment opportunities – “Setting them up allegedly by a hostile Intel service seems like too much work. Easier to go after a known target in a bar or with a knock on a hotel door,” one former official told us. Blackmail of government officials is certainly possible – but would a sophisticated foreign government intelligence service set up permanent locations – and leave detailed written records as happened in this case? We may find out – eventually.
WILD BILL’S GIRLS: We hear there is a book in the works from New York Times bestselling writer Lisa Rogak called Propaganda Girls: The Secret War of the Women of the OSS. It is the story of a heroic group of women who worked for General William Donovan’s OSS during World War II. Their mission was to generate “black propaganda” intended to dishearten the enemy and encourage the public in occupied territory to fight against their oppressors. Among the women – movie star Marlene Dietrich. The publisher will be St. Martins – but no release date has been announced yet.
WILD VLAD’S BOYS: Russian military officials who have been struggling to fill their ranks have found new ways to select young men to call up to serve the motherland. Just before the turn of the year, some Russian pop stars decided to blow off steam by throwing a party with a dress code that they called “almost naked.” The event was held on December 20th and, if media reports can be believed – tickets cost one million rubles (about $10,770.) The behavior of partygoers – both lack of attire and presence of “LGBT propaganda” offended Kremlin officials. Some of the attendees were jailed – and reportedly one of them, Russian rapper Nikolai Vasiliev, after getting out of jail received a summons to report for military duty. Despite shortages, we understand the dress code for the Russian military has not yet reached the “almost naked” stage.
MAKING VACANCIES: One of the reasons Russian recruiters are going after party goers might be because so many frontline soldiers are parting ways with their units. It was reported recently that “more than 220 Russian soldiers” have defected to Ukraine using a special hotline set up to help them. The Financial Times reportedly heard a recording of the opening message on the hotline. The exchange goes something like: “Hello, you called the hotline of the defense intelligence of Ukraine. Do you want to live?”
POCKET LITTER: Dead Droplets and bits and pieces of interesting /weird stuff we discovered:
NCIS UNCOVERS NO CRIME: After several months of investigation, the Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS) has concluded that sometimes Marines tell false stories after drinking. According to Task & Purpose, a video appeared on TikTok showing a Marine, now identified as Sgt. Jonathan Fehr, telling an off-screen woman that he and two other men buried a “biker dude” on Camp Lejeune after the other men had killed him outside a pub. Some folks were alarmed and NCIS got on the case. Turns out the video was shot about four years ago –and Fehr said he and some friends were drinking and telling some story that “everybody knew was a joke.”
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