Dead Drop: January 12

AUSTIN’S POWERS: A lot of ink has been spilled – and electrons expended, analyzing the circumstances surrounding Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin’s hospitalization at the start of the year – and the lack of timely notification to the President, the National Security Advisor, members of Congress – or even his Deputy, Kathleen Hicks – who assumed Austin’s duties for a couple of days without knowing why. Of course, we wish Secretary Austin a speedy and full recovery from what we now know was treatment for prostate cancer.  Without re-plowing too many details, we do offer a couple of observations we picked up from contacts who have served in prominent positions in DoD and the White House.  First, they were stunned that the White House Situation Room didn’t have 24/7 visibility into the whereabouts of a cabinet officer who was in the chain of command – between the president and the combatant commanders.  One suggested to us that going forward, the administration issue air tags, one of those “I’ve fallen, and I can’t get up” necklaces, or make senior officials download the Life360 app on senior officials’ phones. Another former senior opined that Austin still has his job thanks to two people.  One – Joe Biden. The president is known to be fond of Austin and loyal to his subordinates.  The other – Senator Tommy Tuberville – because if Biden did accept or request Austin’s resignation – it is likely that the Coach would block any replacement anyway.

WHO’S IN LINE? Among the very first items that appeared in The Dead Drop when we debuted 8.5 years ago (we know, time flies, right?) – was one speculating who would be tapped to fill senior national security positions after the presidential election that was (then) on the horizon.  Well, here we go again. With balloting still about 10 months off – various media outlets are already publishing stories about possible nominees. Even before Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin went into the witness protection program last week – media were already speculating about who might succeed him if Biden wins a second term.  A piece in Politico suggests that after making history by naming Austin, the first African-American SECDEF, Biden might go for a two-fer and nominate the first woman for the job. Candidates include the current deputy, Kathleen Hicks, or Christine Wormuth – now the Secretary of the Army, or the frequently mentioned Michelle Flournoy, who was Under SECDEF for policy in the Obama administration. Conventional wisdom in 2020, was certain that Flournoy was a shoe in for the job until Biden surprised everyone by picking Austin. If Republicans regain the White House – who might be the Pentagon boss? That all depends, of course, on who POTUS is – but should that turn out to be Donald Trump again – the name of Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas is often dropped. We’ll keep an eye on this over the next ten months – and may periodically bring you speculation about other top national security gigs – like Secretary of State, DNI, CIA and National Security Advisor.  We caution though – it’s always wise to keep in mind that some of the names you may hear bandied about are sometimes just trial balloons floated by friend or staff of the person mentioned.