THE KIRBY DERBY: There are a lot of folks who consider themselves fans of retired Navy Rear Admiral John Kirby’s communications skills. Whether during a couple stints as chief Pentagon spokesman, a similar gig at the State Department, or more recently at the White House as National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communication – he has always been a beacon of clear, responsible and believable facts. Well, almost always. On a recent Thursday afternoon, he was asked to go into the White House press briefing room and explain a report that was going to the Hill about the messy evacuation from Afghanistan in 2021. The briefing already had the aura of a preventative strike – which, in communications parlance means getting the administration’s spin out before Congressional opponents can get their hands on the report and make political hay out of it. To many observers, it appeared that the normally sure-footed Kirby was trying a bit too hard to make chicken salad out of what he had to work with. The handling (and mishandling) of the Afghanistan withdrawal is certain to be political fodder in the 2024 election. Kirby’s statement regarding the evacuation that “For all this talk of chaos, I just didn’t see it, not from my perch” struck a lot of ears as tone deaf. If images of frightened Afghans falling out of the wheel wells of departing aircraft is not chaos – we guess it will do until something more dramatic comes along. Some (normally supportive) observers described his comments as “Baghdad Bob level stuff.” Our own spin, or version of the story that we ‘choose’ to believe is that Kirby’s political masters may have been demanding that kind of spin – but they would have been better served by an acknowledgement that there was plenty of blame to go around – shared among the last administration, the current one, the then-Afghan government and the Taliban. Former CIA officer (and Cipher Brief expert) Marc Polymeropoulos wrote thoughtfully in The Washington Examiner that the Biden administration would be smart to walk back their stance of this matter – quickly. We agree – but would not bet on Kirby being permitted to do so.
YOU DON’T SAY: By now, you have almost certainly heard of the leak of a large batch of top-secret U.S. documents. Well, the White House has a plan for that. The aforementioned NSC spokesman, John Kirby, said on Monday that the details have “no business…on the pages of – front pages of newspapers or on television.” Uhhh… But since every foreign intelligence service in the world (friend and foe) undoubtedly have obtained the documents, and they have been featured in other nation’s media – (and on Twitter, Telegram and gaming chat rooms) we suspect the damage has already been done. Seems to us, telling U.S. media not to report on it seems only likely to make foreign disinformation about the contents of the documents – more effective. Oh, and then there’s that whole first amendment thing that (again, we believe) allows for a more informed society.
EYE SPY WITH MY LYING EYE: According to The Intercept, a company called Converus, Inc. is lobbying U.S. intelligence and defense agencies to start using its automated lie detection technology. We are not talking about old school polygraphs here – but using technology that is said to “measure ‘cognitive load’ with an algorithm that processes eye movement.” The theory (if we understand it – which is in some doubt) that your brain has to work harder to lie than to tell the truth and the window into that may be the eyes. Not everybody in government is buying it – but the technology has some interesting proponents in the private sector – for example, a Christian counseling service is said to be using it for marriage counseling. “The practice works with many sexual betrayal situations” the company, Life Renewal said. “…lie detection is often used to help get to the truth so that healing can begin for the betrayed and the betrayer.” Maybe the Pentagon can use it to find out who leaked all those documents.
BIRD BRAINS: The BBC has an outfit they call their “Disinformation Team.” Despite the somewhat ambiguous title, their mission is to find and call out other news organization’s disinformation rather than create some of their own. They recently reported on a UK-registered media company called “Yala News” which actually operates out of Syria and regularly mimics Russian propaganda in social media and slick videos with a reach of three million Arabic speaking followers. To illustrate Yala’s m.o. – the BBC noted that in March of 2022, Russian state TV aired a “bizarre, and completely fictitious story claiming that the U.S. was using birds as bioweapons” and sending them toward Russia. Two hours later, the same story – often the same wording appeared on Yala’s Facebook page. Some observers believe Yala is engaging in “information laundering” – passing on Russian propaganda while dressing it up so that it does not look like they are repeating Kremlin talking points.
SPEAKING OF RUSSIAN DISINFORMATION: The BBC also has a “Visual Journalism Team” which recently worked with their Russia media monitor Francis Scarr to produce an online audio/visual story that includes short clips of four of the more famous (or infamous) talking heads on Russian State TV. The gang of four include the ubiquitous Vladimir Solvyov whose daily prime-time TV show features his “emotional and often vulgar outbursts” (this week he was practically begging Russian officials to use a few tactical nukes in Ukraine.). Also, Olga Skabeyeva who rants about demilitarizing NATO (This, she says, is also known as “World War III.”) Why does it matter that these folks say such crazy stuff? The BBC notes that “TV is by far the most popular information source for Russians, with around two-thirds of the public receiving their news from Kremlin-controlled channels.” If only they had the first amendment.
GHOST STORIES: Showtime is about to lift the curtain on a new four-part series called “Ghosts of Beirut” about the Lebanese terrorist Imad Mughniyeh who was on the run from U.S. and Israeli intelligence authorities for two decades. Variety describes the series as “Told from the American, Israeli and Lebanese perspectives, the series traces Mughniyeh’s origins from the Shiite slums of South Beirut to his masterminding of the concept of suicide bombers, a deadly tactic that led to his swift rise as the world’s most dangerous terrorist. Based on extensive research of still-classified events, the drama spans decades and weaves in first-hand, real-life interviews with prominent officials from the CIA and Mossad, connecting the turmoil of 1980s Beirut with the spy games of the modern Middle East.” Mughniyeh met his maker in February 2008, in a car bomb blast in Damascus. The series will be released on May 19th. It was directed by Greg Barker (who also received writing credit). You might remember that Barker was behind the well-received 2013 documentary “Manhunt: The Inside Story of the Hunt for Bin Laden.”
DIPLO-STORIES: Last August, The Dead Drop told you about a forthcoming Netflix drama about the U.S. Ambassador to the U.K. called “The Diplomat.” At the time, State Department veterans expressed concern that the show might paint an unrealistic portrait of what a real foreign service officer does by hyping the action – or being really boring (if series accurately showed the Ambassador waiting for Senate confirmation for most of the 8-episode season). Well, we’re about to find out since all eight episodes are set to be released on April 20th. Keri Russell, who starred in “The Americans,” plays the Ambassador. According to The Hollywood Reporter, the plot calls for her to be sent to London in lieu of an earlier planned assignment: Afghanistan. Here is the official trailer. It looks like they skipped the Senate confirmation drama. Whew.
POCKET LITTER: Dead Droplets and bits and pieces of interesting /weird stuff we discovered:
NOTHING ARTIFICIAL ABOUT THIS INTELLIGENCE: In honor of this, the 400th edition of The Dead Drop, we thought we would check in with a couple of the trendy AI platforms to see what they could tell us – about us. BARD, Google’s fledgling AI site when asked to tell us about The Dead Drop said “The column is written by a team of anonymous intelligence experts who share their insights and analysis on the latest news and developments in the field. The Dead Drop is a source of fun or intriguing news that you can't get anywhere else, and it's a must-read for anyone interested in national security and intelligence.” It added: “The column is written in a lively and engaging style, and it's full of interesting insights and analysis. The experts who write the column have a deep understanding of the national security and intelligence landscape, and they share their knowledge in a way that is both informative and entertaining. The Dead Drop is a must-read for anyone who is interested in the world of national security and intelligence.” Hard to argue with that. Then we turned to the better-known ChatGPT which said similar stuff and also added: “One of the unique aspects of the "Dead Drop" column is its emphasis on offering actionable insights and recommendations. The authors not only analyze current events and trends but also offer practical solutions and policy proposals to help address the challenges facing the national security community.” Really? ChatGPT must have read our recommendation in last week’s edition that drones be used to airdrop vodka on Russian troop positions in Ukraine.
WE HAVE A PRACTICAL SOLUTION TO THE POSSIBILITY OF NOT HAVING ENOUGH MATERIAL FOR OUR 401st DEAD DROP: You could send us tips on stuff we might have missed by sending them to: TheDeadDrop@theCipherBrief.com Please, no stolen Top Secret code word stuff – that material has no business in the pages of The Cipher Brief.
Updated 4/14 to show that we do have a grasp of the first AND second amendments
Read more “lively and engaging” expert-driven national security insights, perspectives and analysis in The Cipher Brief
