LET THE BLAMES BEGIN: There was a brief honeymoon period when the U.S. intelligence community got some props for both correctly predicting what the Russians were about to do vis-à-vis Ukraine – and for sharing a lot of that information with the public. But honeymoons don’t last long – and now we seem to have moved into a period of bickering. And critics are asking, “How did U.S. intelligence overestimate Russian military capabilities?” This week, U.S. European Command Chief General Tod Wolters was grilled by Senators about whether there was an “intelligence gap” that caused the U.S. to overestimate Russia’s strength and under value that of Ukraine. His answer, “There could be” and he promised the U.S. would look at that when the smoke clears. Other pundits aren’t waiting. For example, Professor Edward Luttwak wrote a piece that apparently was initially titled, “How the CIA Failed Ukraine.” While the title seems to have been changed, the article still slams the Agency for lack of elementary situational awareness which he blames on a “cultural collapse” and asserts (without showing evidence) that, “very few CIA officers speak any foreign language.” We’re not one to get in the middle of an argument, but might we also humbly suggest that if anyone missed the “fighting spirit” of the Ukrainians or the ineptitude of the Russian army – it was Vladimir Putin – who has plenty of people who do speak the local languages and have great access to facts on the ground. Just sayin.
HERE ARE 600 FOLKS WHO MAY HAVE SOME ANSWERING TO DO: The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Agency has outed more than 600 people it says are members of the Russian Federal Security Service. The FSB is not only in charge of internal security and counterintelligence in Russia – but it also operates in what the Russian’s call the “near abroad” – like the former Soviet Socialist Republics. (And when you think about it, it is kind of telling that they think of Ukraine as pretty much theirs.) Intelnews.org says the list released by the Ukrainians includes not only names – but also addresses, passport numbers and in many cases, birth dates, SIM card numbers, vehicle registrations etc. Fox News says one of the people included in the list has a Skype address that includes the phrase: “jamesbond007.” Some of the identities have leaked before – but by assembling the list, the Ukrainians are demonstrating (once again) that they are ready to play hardball.
KILLER NUN: The Daily Star newspaper in the UK reports that a Russian sniper who goes by the name of Irina was captured by the Ukrainians after her comrades “left her for dead.” Who is she? Man, she has a backstory that Hollywood would die for. Irina has a code name: “Baghera” and supposedly has a “kill count” of 40 people – including Ukrainian civilians. Who compiled this kill count is unclear – probably the same Moscow-based statistician who says only 500 Russians have died in the war. According to the story, Irina started out as a nun. Then she reportedly got out of that habit and became a drug dealer before converting to Islam. While 40 kills for an ex-nun sounds high – the story says she has been terminating people since 2014 – so it works out to only an average of five whacks a year. We caution, however, that you should take Daily Star stories with a grain or two of salt. Also this week, they reported that Vladimir Putin and his inner circle had fled to “secret bunkers” in an alarming sign that the war might turn nuclear. Hope they got that one wrong.
DON’T SHOOT ME, I’M JUST THE PIANO PLAYER’S PSYCHIC: Vice.com picked up a story from a government transparency outfit called “the Government Attic” about three recently declassified CIA documents from the early 1960s regarding claims over Soviet experimentation with “cybernetic telepathy.” The documents relayed second-hand stories about how a Soviet scientist claimed the USSR recorded, “the central nervous system signals of a man playing piano and then broadcast those messages back into the arms of another person who had never played piano before.” He claimed the guy on the receiving end was able to play difficult music and retained some of that ability going forward. The source did not provide any proof of the claim – either written or LP vinyl.
BOOK ‘EM: There is lots of news in the book world about forthcoming tomes of possible interest to Cipher Brief readers. Here are a few that caught our eye:
ASHES AND LASHES: Let’s start with Tim Weiner, author of the 2007 book, “Legacy of Ashes” which harshly trashes the history and record of the CIA. Any book that does that is likely to get plaudits in the media – as Weiner’s did. Not everyone was enthralled, however, for instance, CIA historian Nicholas Dujmovic shot a lot of holes in Weiner’s theories in a review for the Agency’s Studies in Intelligence publication. Well, 15 years have passed and Weiner has landed a deal to write an untitled history of the 21st century CIA, “revealing how the agency lost its global edge in espionage against Russia and China as it fought the war on terror, with grave consequences for Americans and the world.” The publisher is “Mariner” – no word on when Weiner’s ship will come in.
HER MAJESTY’S MANY SECRETS: We are a little confused by this one. Last October, two professors, Rory Cormac and Richard Aldrich published something called, “The Secret Royals: Spying and the Crown, from Victoria to Diana.” We meant to read it but didn’t get around to it. Now word comes out that Georgetown University Press has agreed to publish a book by the same authors next year titled, “Her Majesty And The Secret Service: Spying And The Crown From Victoria To Elizabeth II.” Sounds like the same book – just adding QEII. But wait, there’s more: Cormac also seems to have a deal to publish, “How to Stage a Coup,” this June, which argues that, “understanding why and how states wield covert action has never been more important.” That one comes from Atlantic Books, the same outfit that published “The Secret Royals.”
AND DON’T FORGET: Senior lecturer in history, specializing in secret intelligence, Claire Hubbard-Hall has a deal to write, “Miss Moneypenny: The Forgotten Women Of British Intelligence.” It is said to be about the “forgotten women who worked behind the scenes in Britain's secret services from their inception in 1909 onwards.” It is not due until 2024 from the UK publisher Weidenfeld & Nicolson.
CYBER FIGHT: Michael McLaughlin, who was listed as, “senior counterintelligence advisor for the United States Cyber Command” and appears to be an active duty Navy lieutenant commander (if his Linked-In bio is up to date), is working on, “Battlefield Cyber: How China and Russia are Undermining Our Democracy and National Security.” The publisher, Prometheus Books says it is, “an analysis and critique of America's cyber defenses against the onslaught of malicious cyber activities of Russia and China.” Publication date has not been revealed (at least not to us.)
POCKET LITTER: Dead Droplets and bits and pieces of interesting /weird stuff we discovered:
LET LOOSE THE (MECHANICAL) DOGS OF WAR: The Portland, Oregon Air National Guard Base is testing a robot guard dog. According to local KATU-TV, they are the first guard unit in the country to test the devices. The Steel Snoopies can walk seven miles on a single battery charge. They carry multiple cameras and have a microphone and speakers so that remote operators can chat up folks the robots might encounter on their rounds. While well-equipped, the robo-dogs certainly could use a better name. The official moniker is “Quadrupedal Unmanned Ground Vehicle.” Even as an acronym, “QUGV” doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue. At least, operators will be relieved to know they don’t have to clean up after the patrol pooches.
SLOW NEWS PERIOD? You wouldn’t think so – but we noticed that the website SOFREP.COM posted an article on March 26 about, “Three Declassified Spy Gadgets of the CIA.” The spy gear looked very familiar – such as an “Insectothopter” (a 1970’s insect-sized drone,) a camera hidden in a tobacco pouch and a hollowed out Eisenhower dollar. But looking a little closer, SOFREP.COM cited their source...a July 2016 Business Insider story. The good thing about writing about the intelligence business is that recycling is apparently a good thing.
GOT ANY NEWS WE CAN HELP RECYCLE: Bundle up your new tips and send them to us at TheDeadDrop@theCipherBrief.com.
